Friday Forecast

121 Comments

7:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 15-19)…
Carrying yesterday’s ideas forward but making an adjustment regarding Sunday/Monday. In summary… Cloudiness dominates today as the air mass warms. Storm moves by very quickly Saturday morning and early afternoon a weakening low passing far to the northwest while a stronger low passes southeast of Cape Cod, but in a mild air mass we’ll see rain from this across the area with the exception of patches of freezing rain possible in interior valleys of north central MA and southern NH for a brief time. Additional storm development will take place well to the southeast Sunday as cold air returns Sunday and is reinforced Monday and Tuesday, including a disturbance Monday which may ignite snow showers/squalls.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 37-44. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arriving south to north overnight, may begin as freezing rain interior valleys of southern NH and north central MA. Lows 30-37. Wind S to SE 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain ending south to north by early afternoon. Highs in the 40s. Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH interior areas and 15-30 MPH along the coast with higher gusts Cape Cod, shifting to N then NW later in the day and diminishing slightly.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
MONDAY: Sun and clouds. Chance of snow showers. Windy. Temperatures fall from the 20s to the 10s.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Windy. Lows 0-10. Highs 15-25.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 20-24)…
Windy/cold/dry January 20. Tranquil but cold January 21. Storm threat later January 22 into January 23. Fair and cold January 24.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 25-29)…
Fair and milder early period. Risk of a fast-moving system bringing mix/rain mid period. Fair and colder late period.

121 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

    2. Great visual. Thanks.

      If the system moving across the US w-e were not there, would Alex have played into our plans

  5. This is what Al Roker posted on air during one of his newscasts this morning:

    RAIN: Washington DC To Boston
    SNOW: New England

    Gee, all these years I always thought Boston was a part of New England. 😉

    I suspect he meant NNE, but still…could be confusing to some.

    2. Just remember, that toad is a “weather presenter” and NOT a meteorologist.
      😀
      Apparently, he didn’t do well in Geography as a student either.

    1. Central and Eastern Florida look like they are having their own share of rain too, but not quite like that squall line.

  11. Just stumbled onto this display from the NWS. This is fairly new. I wonder how
    long it has been around.

    http://preview.weather.gov/edd/?lat=40.329452873812926&lon=-75.73059082031124&zoom=6&ql=FFFFFFTFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF&ml=&bm=Google_Terrain&lsr=F&lfc=F&rt=obs&rf=major|moderate|minor|action&ht=F&pid=N0Q&sf=GOES_Infrared&ri=15&obs=TFTTFFFFFFTFFFFT&is=1&ou=mph&od=-50&ships=F&cluster=T&radO=0.75&satO=0.75&hazO=0.55&tropO=0.7&ndfdO=0.7&ndfdR=Continental_US&ndfdF=Maximum_Temperature_(%C2%BAF)&ndfdT=12&ndfdTS=&f100=F&lviz=F&fullscreen=F&fxt=Point_(Text_Only)&ppd=24&pdy=3&satf=60&obsync=F&owv=F&flavor=Advanced&tfo=&tfd=&tfw=null&ht=F&hd=F&ho=null&hf=null&hb=F&ot=Meteorological_Observation&hvt=F&sht=T&uwl=F

    1. Sorry link did not work. Worked on my desktop computer.

      Let me try again. I think the link is too long for wordpress

      http://preview.weather.gov/edd/?lat=40.329452873812926&lon=-75.73059082031124&zoom=6&ql=FFFFFFTFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF&ml=&bm=Google_Terrain&lsr=F&lfc=F&rt=obs&rf=major|moderate|minor|action&ht=F&pid=N0Q&sf=GOES_Infrared&ri=15&obs=TFTTFFFFFFTFFFFT&is=1&ou=mph&od=-50&ships=F&cluster=T&radO=0.75&satO=0.75&hazO=0.55&tropO=0.7&ndfdO=0.7&ndfdR=Continental_US&ndfdF=Maximum_Temperature_(%C2%BAF)&ndfdT=12&ndfdTS=&f100=F&lviz=F&fullscreen=F&fxt=Point_(Text_Only)&ppd=24&pdy=3&satf=60&obsync=F&owv=F&flavor=Advanced&tfo=&tfd=&tfw=null&ht=F&hd=F&ho=null&hf=null&hb=F&ot=Meteorological_Observation&hvt=F&sht=T&uwl=F

      If that doesn’t work, try this link and CLICK On CURRENT WEATHER

      http://www.weather.gov/box/

  12. I think we got some wish casting from Joe Bastardi with these tweets. If someone finds evidence to support this I stand corrected.
    Very interesting situation in east. Euro acc snow much further south than GFS. 3 ” line Runs from Cape Ann to High pt nj. 6-10 Berkshires

    The rain snow line with this in southern New England wont be more than a half mile away from anyone ( vertical) Tricky, at least to me

    2. Click on this to enlarge, but this is the 0Z Euro Run total snow map
      through 72 hours or long after end of tomorrow’s event.

      http://imgur.com/5r9PFbW

      He is talking about some sort of ensemble snowmap? Or control run or something. It certainly is NOT the operational run.

  13. He is talking about tomorrow. Like I said I think Bastardi is wish casting here but if anyone finds evidence to support those tweets I stand corrected.

  14. Now some chatter I am seeing on twitter strastospheric warming event doesn’t happen late month winter is over. Always interesting to see when the first tweets come out declaring winter over.

    2. The upper atmosphere is often at its coldest in February and March. Easier to get it to snow then many Winters. 🙂

  16. Well I am in Fort Myers.

    The rain is torrential right now. NWS Tornado Alert for the entire day. It is WINDY, Yesterday I drove past the area hit by a tornado (EF2) last Saturday. Sadly, many damaged homes with missing roofs.

    The trip down was at 32,000 feet where the air temp was -62F.

  18. 12Z GFS says FUGGETBOUTIT!!!!!
    That is any and ALL chances of snow for the foreseeable future.
    SEE YA! GOOD-BYE!!!

    1. it has a series of clipper systems any of which could be sneaky. Also how many times have the gfs been wrong this season?

  20. Hi everyone…
    We are, at 12 noon, exactly halfway through Meteorological Winter, 2015-16. (There’s an extra day this time because of Leap Day, February 29)…

    Let’s look at the scoreboard:

    Hurricanes 1, Snowstorms 0
    The New England Patriots have had more losses (3) since December 1 than Boston has had snow (1.2″)
    Spent Christmas afternoon on my mom’s deck with my brothers in shorts and sandals having dessert
    Had the golf clubs and baseball glove out more in December than in July

    It will be interesting to see what happens in the next 45 1/2 days.
    Have a good, long (for some) weekend, everyone!

    Go Pats!

  22. This low will probably be sub 980mb and rapidly deepening as it passes our latitude, over or just inside the benchmark. To see a storm like that produce rain at this time of year is incredible. Much as I try to be impartial, that’s pretty devastating as a snow lover, lol.

    Although, given it’s speed and model projections, QPF for eastern MA will probably “only” be in the .75-1.00″ range, maybe more on the Cape. So I guess we aren’t missing out on all that much. Lots of model discrepancy on those QPF totals by the way, it’ll be interesting to see how much we end up with. A GFS/ECMWF blend seems reasonable, those two aren’t all that different. .95″ liquid for Boston will be my guess 🙂

  24. 12Z Euro has sickened me. The so called storm threat for the 1/22-1/24 period
    has a systyem off of Florida SOUTH of a building SouthEast Ridge with 850mb
    temps up here a TORCH!!! Let Summer Begin!

  25. This storm track is a perfect one for wintry precipitation and were going to get zip and has sickened me.

  26. On my way south to even milder climes. Close to 50F today and tomorrow in DC/Baltimore area. Ridiculous. WxWatcher is right. It would be one thing if we had just `wasted cold’ (disclaimer, I don’t really mind `wasted cold’). On top of that we have a benchmark storm that’s producing rain on Jan 15 and 16. Certainly not unheard of, but not common, either. It’s ironic that we’ve wasted both cold and a benchmark storm (because of lack of cold!) in less than a week. Welcome to the winter of 2015-2016.

  27. From Eric Fisher
    12z ECMWF = glad I made a snow map yesterday. Wet snow potential still on the table for interior areas.

  28. there is a chance of some back end snow especially northeast Mass tomorrow afternoon as the storm moves out. The gfs is showing it being really close .
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016011512/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_5.png
    rain starts pulling out, snow starts to move down.
    freezing line has moved to south coast/cape cod. this means that the snow line moves south and east between these two times http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2016011512&fh=36&xpos=0&ypos=360
    snow map of the gfs.

  30. I saw a tweet that the new EURO run is showing a period of wet snow with a few inches just north of me.
    JP Dave if you have that EURO link for the 12z run could you please post it and see if this is legit.
    Many Thanks

  35. Absolutely beautiful here, ready today to run the 1 miler today, then tomorrow 10k, then Sun half marathon, obviously won’t be on as much do to roaming

      1. It’s probable that a system will be entering the eastern US.
        It’s possible that this system will be impacting this area.

  37. HRRR 850MB temperatures are descending and hit 32 in Boston around 3-5 AM.
    Problem is, forecasted 925 MB temperatures are above freezing. NOT conducive for SNOW. However, I see a trend developing here.

    Is this a set up for a Classic New England surprise snow event?

    Probably NOT. I look for such things.

    Still, will be interesting to see this unfold.

    1. The more intense this thing bombs, I’d assume the better chance to cool the column. So, if the low bombs more than the models show, I’d think wet snow might surprise in the advisory zone. That experimental HRRR is at 971 mb, so if it gets that intense, then that radar projection might be reasonable.

  38. Just talked to a colleague. Don’t get too excited about a surprise snow event tomorrow. 🙂

  40. Let’s get to the important weather stuff … Does anyone have an exact Foxboro game time forecast??

    1. Mostly cloudy and 36 at kickoff.
      Partly cloudy and 32 at game’s end.
      Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts shifting to W and diminishing a little.

      1. Not likely. That circulation will be absorbed by a much larger mid latitude cyclone and become a non-factor.

  43. Charlie what part of the island are you on? I go there for work frequently. I last stayed at the South Hampton Princess.

  49. NAM LOOKS COLDER for tomorrow am.
    Hrrr 850btemps crash but still show 925 mb Temps too warm.
    It’s a battle and close?

  50. It’s like a strong tropical storm here, side ways rain 42-47 knot winds I was just told. It’s fairly bad. Wow!!!

  51. Re: storm for 1/23,1/24
    Models are all over the map
    And have been.

    Monday system keeps getting
    Closer.

  52. Report from Fort Myers.

    Yesterday during the rain and wind, suddenly it all intensified ferociously for about 1 minute. Turns out a small tornado touched down about 1/8 mile away. It did some damage and then suddenly disappeared. I have never been in or around a tornado in my life. It was an experience! Given what I saw, I cannot imagine an EF5.

    1. I experienced living through an EF 1 tornado when I was five years old back in July 1989. The tree in the front yard came down but thankfully no damage to the house. I was scared at the time while this was happening.
      SPC has a slight risk for severe storms down in that area today. Be safe Longshot and keep an eye to that sky.

    3. Wow Longshot. That is way too close. Glad you are ok.

      My daughters in laws have a winter place somewhere around there. I will check on them

  53. JP Dave what model shows the Monday system getting closer. I just looked at 6z GFS and its a fish storm

    1. I believe the euro has come closer with a clipper system, as well as the low pressure out of the gulf coming further up the coast than previously put out.

    1. What’s going on there is they don’t know how to resolve 2 pieces of energy in the larger scale to figure out what happens on the smaller scale.

  56. Hi All.

    Work has been killing me busy. Been reading blog but not much time to goof around with you guys.

    Rain just flipped to snow out here in the center of Holden. Fat snowflakes. Will start sticking soon.

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