Saturday Forecast

130 Comments

8:51AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 16-20)…
The Saturday storm is ongoing and behaving about as expected. A decent batch of moderate to heavy rain is crossing a good portion of southeastern New England in response to a deepening low pressure area passing just southeast of New England, many times a track that would produce significant snow in January. But on this occasion, the combination of warm ocean water, too-warm upper levels, and mild air already in place below that is preventing snow. However, there has been just enough cold air left at the ground mainly in valley areas well northwest of Boston for some patches of freezing rain. Finally, colder air will start to work down from above into the area that precipitation forms in areas north and west of Boston toward the end of the precipitation, that is cold enough to support snow with intensity, however this will take place just as the precipitation is getting set to pull out of here, which will limit any snow accumulation to a slushy inch in the higher terrain of north central MA and south central NH (with more to the west of there in the mountains of southwestern NH). Colder air will filter in tonight and Sunday behind this system but it won’t be until Monday morning with a passing arctic cold front brings much colder air in. This front, with its small parent low crossing northern New England, may produce a batch of snow showers and snow squalls that may lead to some quick but minor accumulation. Timing of this system and its potential snow showers will be critical for people traveling on Monday. The good news is, Monday being a holiday for many means that the morning commute will be quite light, in terms of traffic volume. Either way, the very cold air takes hold Monday and lingers into the middle of next week.
TODAY: Cloudy. Rain, heavy at times, diminishing rapidly from southwest to northeast during midday. Patches of freezing rain likely for a while this morning interior valleys well northwest of Boston. Precipitation turning to wet snow before ending in parts of the region northwest of Boston with up to an inch in highest elevations, and perhaps flakes in the air and a slushy coating in portions of east central to northeastern MA. Highs 35-40 northwest of Boston, 40-45 Boston to Providence, 45-50 Cape Cod. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH Cape Cod, with higher gusts, shifting to NW and eventually W and diminishing to 5-15 MPH later.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs in the 30s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Windy. Variably cloudy with snow showers and snow squalls, most numerous early. Temperatures fall into the 10s.
TUESDAY: Windy. Mostly sunny. Lows 0-10. Highs 15-25.
WEDNESDAY: Breezy. Mostly sunny. Lows 0-10. Highs in the 20s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 21-25)…
Dry and cold January 21. Continuing to watch a storm threat that falls in the January 22-23 time frame. Currently, computer guidance shows a variety of solutions during this time so will just leave the vague outlook as is and continue to watch. Fair weather returns January 24-25 with a seasonable chill.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 26-30)…
A trend toward milder temperatures, though still variable, as a storm threat exists for around January 27-28. Plenty of uncertainty normally this far out and even more so at this time.

130 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

    1. If you’re snow already you can easily get about 1 inch. It will probably end as rain though when it lightens up.

  3. Very borderline north and west of Boston now as the storm deepens to the southeast. Where it’s snow already will obviously accumulate more easily as the ground has a head start cooling. For the rest of the area from metro Boston north and west it will depend on precipitation intensity as it gets colder aloft. And just about the time it’s colder aloft enough everywhere, the precipitation will be too light to drag the cold air down and then it will be over.

    Where it does snow and accumulate, several hours exist this afternoon to scrape walks/driveways before they freeze up tonight as it will be in the 20s there.

    This region is dodging a major snowstorm by a fairly narrow margin and the average person won’t even realize it, just us weather nuts. 😉

    The low pressure area that has been expected to pass out to sea Sunday night will indeed do that and will be closer to Bermuda than it is to Boston.

    The system for Monday is not a true clipper, but a small low generated on the advancing elongated closed 500mb low. In this case, the low passing to the north won’t prevent it from snowing, as the arctic boundary will have moisture to work with and some upper level support for a decent batch of snow showers/squalls Monday morning. These MAY put down enough snow to cover the ground in some locations. As I stated above, thankfully the commute Monday morning is minimal due to holiday, and the schools are already closed, because even though we may only end up with a coating of snow, when that happens in minutes during a commute, you know what the result often is…………..

  4. In Lunenburg, we just changed from freezing rain to huge, heavy snow flakes. It is just beautiful.

    Yesterday, my 12-year-old son and I hiked in Squannacook Brook State Forest in Townsend. The conditions were unlike any we have seen. We discussed how different it was from a few weeks earlier when we hiked there in the warm weather around Christmas. The Squannacook river is still open but has lots of ice sheets. The river level has fallen since the ice formed leaving all sorts of amazing formations.

    We walked through some open areas. Without the snow, there areas are very sandy. Now they are covered with both the ice from a storm a few weeks ago and the fluffy snow from a more recent storm. There is an area about 1/4 mile long of undulations of perhaps 1 – 2 feet formed in the sand. The crests have been blown clear down to the ice. The valleys between have up to 6″ of fluff. Wonderful stuff!

  5. Thanks TK !

    For this strong a storm, it’s telling that there is much wind in Marshfield. I’m thinking it’s the telling sign that there’s additional low pressure north of this benchmark storm and not high pressure.

  6. I’m up in Portsmouth NH today and about 10 minutes ago the rain changed to heavy wet snow… nice coating on cars and the roofs of the buildings

  7. my brother said that it has started to snow in Billerica. Big flakes. Starting to coat the car.

    I am in Boston where there is no window’s but I bet its raining

  9. I’m in the parking lot of Burlington High School at 10AM and here it is mixed rain and snow.

  10. Now at 10:15AM I’m parked along 28 in Stoneham and we have moderate rain and huge flakes here.

  12. Now as the intensity lessens west to east some snow areas will go to mix or rain before ending. This process will take 90 to 120 min.

  13. 10:30AM… On a hill at the parking lot of Unicorn Golf Course .. Stoneham / Woburn line. Mostly snow, smaller but wet flakes still mixed with a bit of rain. Intensity is less.

  14. Sitting in best buy lot in dedham.
    Mixing with Snow here.
    Driving out saw first very wet very
    Occasional wet snow flake splat
    On windshield.

    Wow! Before I could finish posy, it is now
    Mostly Snow!! Not all but mostly.

  24. 11:30 still in Burlington and it’s going back to light rain with a few grains of snow hanging on. Just as expected.

    1. Interesting but not surprising. Some of the short range guidance indicated a longer period of good snow up that way. I didn’t quite have it in my forecast.

      It was barely cold enough and the heavier precipitation was kept longer there – so that explains it. It was going to be a close call for snow in many other areas. I’m a little but not totally surprised how far southeast some of the flakes made it.

  26. TK, your forecasting skills and insight are off the charts good ….

    I mean, have a look at today’s 12z GFS for the 1/23 to 1/24 timeframe.

    Didn’t you identify this time frame almost a week ago to keep an eye on …..

    1. I’d have to search when the idea first entered my mind upon looking at the longer range pattern… Maybe a week ago? If anyone wants to go digging – be my guest. 😛

    1. There you lost the intensity before the cold air was established upstairs. This is a great case study into this kind of event.

  30. And finally at the end of my morning trek I am back at home on Woods Hill in Woburn as of 11:45 (even tho this post is after 12) and we were having very light rain the disc of the sun visible through the overcast.

      1. 0.2 here on the east side of town. Good coating on lawn and even part of my driveway and one car that was not used this morning. Though on the lawn you could always see the grass even at maximum cover.

        1. My yard had a bit more…some random snow patches. Wonder how much snow we would have gotten in a direct hit!

          1. Well it essentially was a direct hit. The issue was we had no cold air during the strongest part of the storm. It was only at the very end where the last of the intensity was able to bring down the cold. Had this been snow from the start, it would have been 5 to 10 inches easily.

  31. We had huge flakes here from 9:30 to 11:30. No accumulation. Sun breaking through now. TK if I said you are amazing, it would not do you justice.

    2. This time it will be January 22-23 and will not lead to anything near what we saw last Winter. In fact before we settle into a period of colder/snowier weather in February, the month may kick off with some near record warmth.

  33. If that storm materializes around that I could already here people say here we go again. I don’t think will see a pattern like that where it snows every couple days. That storm on the 24th last year was the appetizer for the blizzard a few days later.
    Tweet from meteorologist Ed Vallee on next weekend storm POTENTIAL
    So…about that 1/23 storm. Signal definitely still there. One of the better set ups we’ve had this year. Lots of timing issues, though

    1. I maintain that even though this is the best in advance set-up, that’s not hard to do this Winter since pretty much every set-up has sucked, for lack of a better way to put it. 🙂

  37. Rare you’ll hear me say this about the Canadian model, but today’s 12z run, in my opinion of the upcoming events, is a good one.

    In the shorter term (Monday event) it has support from the high res NAM on a very small low pressure area crossing central New England and redeveloping northeast of Cape Ann. Depending on the details, this may be good for an enhancement of snow showers/squalls in parts of northeastern MA and southeastern NH into southern Maine meaning there could be a mini jackpot of snow accumulation somewhere in this region.

    1. ECMWF may be having issues resolving the interaction between the jet streams and especially the amplitude of the subtropical jet. It is lacking consistency from run to run which is a clear sign of this issue, which the model doesn’t have all that often. This casts some doubt on the validity of that solution right now.

  39. Bold Prediction. Just one touchdown will be scored and they will loose.

    Both of the o-lines very low in the ranks. especially in terms of giving up sacks which they are both going top 10 defenses

      1. You never say never in weather when something is way out in the future but the odds say CMC solution won’t happen.

  46. 18Z still has the 23-24th storm and its a nice hit! Great job seeing this a week or so out TK you are the Best!

      1. Anytime. Thanks for all the work you do. I hope we have something next week. It will be nice to enjoy some snow.

          1. You have a great sense for forecasting and reading all of the data and applying real forecasting to it :). Thanks for all you do.

  48. Tweet about next weekend storm POTENTIAL
    New Euro EPS Control run is more N than operational for next wknd. 0z should come a bit N as well in response

  50. Great football game. I hope the other three are great games as well.
    I think were going to see Manning Brady AFC Championship once again. Steelers so banged up going into that game tomorrow. NFC Championship I got Seattle playing Arizona.

  51. Re: Game
    Sure helps when Tom has his weapons.

    Gronk sure looked good as did Edelman after a few early game drops.

    re: 23rd,24th
    We shall see. It is getting closer now.

    1. He is married to the Euro. I was going to post that.
      0Z GFS and CMC have us getting nailed. Both models 1 foot + for Boston.

      ONLY the 12Z Euro had it going South. I wonder IF the 0Z Euro comes around
      or still insists on OTS.

      We’ll know in a hour hour and 1/2, but I won’t know till morning. 😀

      I am really tired.

  62. That’s okay TJ
    IF and I say IF that verifies snowfall deficits will be close to if not erased for winter 2015-16.

  64. I’d like to echo thoughts from above. Between tomorrow night and Monday AM,
    a brush with ocean storm that looks like it wants to sprout an inverted trough (dare I say Norlun) back towards the approaching clipper. Would not surprise me to see
    2-4 or 3-5 in the City. We will have to wait and see how that pans out. Wankum called
    for 1-2 in the City and along the immediate coast.

    Good night all.

  65. The New England Patriots are 1 win away from going to the SUPERBOWL for a NFL record 9th time. 8th time in the last 20yrs!!!!!!!! Absolutely remarkable!!!! 🙂

  66. 0z Euro huge shift north and showing a monster storm for next weekend. Close to two feet of snow for some areas,especially southwest of boston. Should be a fun week

  67. Canadian is the closest track the most snow. very strong storm
    Then the GFS Further out to sea
    Euro is further than that.

    All still gives southern new England snowfall I do not think the Canadian happens

  68. Just imagine AFC championship, snow storm. 😉

    what stinks is that I will be stuck in Boston till 4pm and if it is snowing, I probably will not make it home in time for the second half.

  70. I wonder if the well above average sea surface temperatures add even more potential to this norlun trof event …..

    It was only last Tuesday that we saw what the warmer than normal waters did to that little system pushing through New England. Recall the heavy snow burst and the convective elements of that 1 to 2 hr event.

    3. Tom, here is the 1 hr snowfall for the Experimental HRRR (goes out to 24 hours)
      between the hours of 3 and 4 AM tomorrow:

      http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2016011709/t3/1hsnw_t3sfc_f24.png

      4Am radar reflectivity

      http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2016011709/t3/cref_t3sfc_f24.png

      Total snow, ending 4AM

      http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2016011709/t3/acsnw_t3sfc_f24.png

      Cape Ann gets quite a JOLT from this little Set Up

  71. Good morning.

    Well, so far we have a TRIPLE HEADER for the 24th.

    All 3 main models (Euro, GFS and CMC) have a major Snow Storm for the 24th.
    ALL have a foot+ and the CMC is off the charts. IF we get this one, I’ll be happy
    for the entire Winter.

    Imagine that TK pointed this out long ago. This is TK’s outlook
    from LAST Sunday!!! He had is eye on this one 2 weeks ago!!

    DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 20-24)…
    Fair and milder January 20-22, colder January 23. Watch for the next storm threat late in the period.

    1. I sure didn’t have my eye on the Arctic air coming though. Fair and milder? HAHAHAHA! I blew that one.

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