Sunday Forecast

225 Comments

8:08AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 17-21)…
Sneaky snow coming? Not if you see it coming. It’s become apparent that a small, well-placed inverted trough will create some snow in the region tonight as a developing ocean storm heads out to sea just southeast of New England, and a disturbance in the polar jet stream approaches from the west, taking along an Arctic boundary. This quick-hitting snow event may leave some accumulation and then it may be added to slightly but a batch of snow showers/squalls with the Arctic boundary, which will lead the coldest air of the season so far into the region later Monday. This very cold air mass will hang around into midweek before easing slightly.
TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs in the 30s. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Snow developing with 1 to 3 inches possible. Locally heavier amounts also possible. Snow mixed with rain on parts of the South Shore to Cape Cod early before becoming snow. Lows in the 20s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy morning with snow showers likely – additional minor snow accumulation possible. Partly cloudy to mostly sunny afternoon with isolated snow showers. Temperatures fall into the 10s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH early becoming W 5-15 MPH but gusty in passing snow showers then NW increasing to 15-30 MPH with gusts 35-45 MPH during the afternoon.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Windy. Lows 0-10. Highs 15-25.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 0-10. Highs in the 20s.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 0-10. Highs 25-35.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 22-26)…
Continuing to watch a storm threat for late January 22 into January 23 which may bring significant snow to at least parts of the region. Too early to be sure if/where mix/rain gets involved. Something to watch. Fair, windy, colder January 24. Fair and more tranquil January 25. Next unsettled weather threat may arrive by January 26.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 27-31)…
A storm system may impact the region to start the period followed by period of fair weather with a couple quick air mass changes in the final days of the month.

225 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  1. You’re all forgetting the 4th major model–the Charlie Model for the 22-23 has rain for the Boston-Providence corridor with some light snow possible outside of 495.

  2. Good morning again and thank you for the Sunday morning update TK.

    re: Sneaky snow. If one were watching ALL of the model output, one could see a
    trend heading in that direction. Now it is just a matter of exactly where it sets up.

    Curently Cape Ann “appears” to be the jackpot area with most
    of Eastern MA definitely in on the action.

  6. I am not the greatest model interpreter, but what I see is:
    1) Models all in agreement (Unusual)
    2) A classic, old fashion, New England set-up with a trough digging up moisture as it comes north and banging into cold air and all of it not that far from the BM.
    3) Boston / NE on the western edge of the low.
    4) Maybe missing that true high pressure to the north in Canada but may not need it.
    5) Timing that looks about as right as it can get if you’re a snow-lover.

    If you like snow, this is almost too good to be true.

  10. A perhaps ignorant question….is there a difference between “the coastal plain” and “eastern mass”, and if I live in Natick, do I live in either, both, or neither?

    1. Sort of both, but perhaps on the fringe.
      You get in on the action, but perhaps not the heaviest of it. 😀

  12. To Answer John’s question about start times:

    NAM suggestd around 8PMish
    HRRR suggests around 6PMish
    GFS suggests ari\ound 7PMish

    Probably safe to say 6-8PM or around that neighborhood give or take a bit. 😀

    Coating to 5 inches in the city. Still evolving. Could easily be just a coating. Could be more. 5 inches would be an outside shot. 2 inches sounds pretty good. We shall see.

  15. Really nice discussion from NWS re: our event tonight.

    POSSIBLE NORLUN EVENT SETTING UP AS INVERTED TROF EXTENDS WELL TO THE NW OFSFC LOW INTO NEW ENG IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

    OUR MOST LIKELY FORECAST WILL BE 1-3 INCHES FOR
    E MA. IF THE HEAVIER BAND SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION…THERE IS A
    POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 6 INCHES

    Here is the link for full discussion:

    http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off

  16. Well I have to have my wife at the hospital for aprocedure tomorrow morning so that means an all nighter tonight and going tomorrow on no sleep , oh well at least it’s holiday pay starting at midnight.

    1. Close because of a large moisture envelope, but still a miss. It’s only Mr. Norlun that has any hope of indirectly dumping snow here from that. 🙂

      And, Mr. Norlun would not be trying to visit without that other system approaching in the polar jet. Timing is everything. 🙂

  19. If my old eyes aren’t deceiving me, the 12z GFS has shifted its 3-5 inch norlun trof band to not only include Boston, but into the 128 belt as well.

    1. Convergence of arctic front with norlun trof with above normal SST and areas of instability. I wouldn’t be shocked if some localized area achieves advisory plus criteria snowfall.

      1. Wouldn’t surprise me at all.

        If nothing else, snow will be in the air again in this snow starved Winter.

        We’ll be out tonight from about 5:30 to 9PM or so.
        I hope we get home before the festivities commence. 😀

  24. Still expect to see variability in runs regarding late next week. Some have claimed that models are coming into agreement. This is only right in the general sense that a system will be near the East Coast. The details are far from being agreed upon.

    As for this NORLUN. I acknowledge the potential for greater than 3 inches in localized areas, or a band somewhere, but given the tricky nature of these features I’ll hold back from really getting into this until an evening update. I’ve seen these things suddenly appear on short range guidance and look rather impressive only to deliver a fraction of what the model forecast indicated. Other times, they have gone over model #’s. It’s nearly impossible to tell how any one of these is going to behave until it’s in its formative stage, and even sometimes then it can still throw you curves. I would say the NORLUN trough is the most difficult smaller scale feature to forecast in this part of the country, even more difficult than the sea breeze.

    It looks like after next week we’ll enter about a 2 week period that is not favorable for snowstorms. After that, the pattern will reverse again.

    1. Norluns are certainly interesting.

      Looking forward to seeing how this one plays out.
      All models differ on this.

      1. In a Winter that so far has offered you very little to track, this is at least something to gnaw on.

        1. Agree 100%. I will probably not over achieve, but it
          is something to watch anyway.

          Hope next weekend’s potential doesn’t go poof.

          1. Though I’m not backing down from that potential – it’s the real deal – I will continue to maintain it’s not a lock by any means. Even with the better overall setup we still need things to line up just so. One slightly less amplified or more amplified feature upstream or downstream from the system and its course is significantly impacted. The prognostication of the interaction of fluids embedded in other fluids, i.e., weather forecasting, is an undertaking that sometimes I feel isn’t even fair to attempt. But some of us are just meant to try. 🙂

            1. Once again agree.
              Frankly, I am amazed at how well these
              models often do. I like the way you truly
              use it as guidance and not gospel. 😀

              1. The only way I can do it.

                For several days I’ve been watching the possibility of a storm impacting this area around January 27. I still see that as a possibility but this time we may end up with something that goes over or west of this area.

  25. A couple of inches of snow across eastern mass with jack pots of 4 inches probably east of i95 in northeast mass and or coastal Plymouth county.

    I said a general agreement of an east coast storm but how far north is the big question on my blog.
    And just as well as the 12z models have started to shift to what the EURO was showing. which is further out to sea.

    1. the gfs trend today is sending the track further out to sea and more in line with what the euro is saying go figure

  26. Monitoring the HRRR.

    It is currently depicting strongest radar echos in the period 7-10 PM tonight, then a lull
    and then perhaps more as the front approaches. We shall see.

    1. I’m going to ask my friend how he feels the HRRR is going to handle this thing tonight. He seems to have a good feel for when that model is not going to get something. I don’t have a great feel for that short range guidance right now but I tend not to trust it all that much. Once in a while it nails something, but I want more consistency.

  27. 12z GFS still does show a few inches for next weekend. The way this winter has gone a few inches will feel like a big storm. Nothing set in stone.

      1. CMC has surprised me in that I’ve liked the majority of its runs since Friday. That can’t last I’m sure. 😛

        Something seems off to me on today’s 12z GFS. That should correct with the 18z.

    1. They’re not confident. Unless there is a downward adjustment coming then the advisory should be posted by 5PM if not shortly before that.

  29. New NWS discussion.
    Headlines:

    .SYNOPSIS…
    A STRONG OCEAN STORM WILL TRACK WELL OUT TO SEA TONIGHT…BUT A
    DISTURBANCE EXTENDING TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
    ACCUMULATING SNOW TO EASTERN MA TONIGHT.

    EARLY THINKING IS WE
    WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD 12Z GFS WHICH SHOWS STRONGER LIFT WITH
    NORLUN TROUGH THAN 12Z NAM

    CONSIDERING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
    FOR AT LEAST COASTAL LOCATIONS BUT WILL MAKE FINAL CALL BY 4 PM.

    Link

    http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off

  31. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2016011712&fh=144&xpos=0&ypos=567

    EURO has shifted to bench mark storm
    EPS well out to sea
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2016011700&fh=180&xpos=0&ypos=222

    Canadian has stayed course similar to EURO
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2016011712&fh=156&xpos=0&ypos=222

    GFS is further out to sea.
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2016011712&fh=150&xpos=0&ypos=222
    Has back up with ensemble members
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2016011712&fh=138&xpos=0&ypos=372
    GEFS
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2016011712&fh=132&xpos=0&ypos=463 further out to sea than gfs.
    EURO ensembles look similar to that of the GFS ensembles. I would want to see if the euro and its ensembles go to what the EURO is showing

    Big storms Euro/ Canadian/JMA
    Smaller event or nothing at all (further out to sea) GFS/ GEFS/ EPS/GEPS

    Lets see if the 18z gfs goes back. Also lets see if the others that go out to sea the EURO is not supported by the EPS The gfs is supported by the GEFS and the EPS. we shall see, interesting to watch it unfolding

  32. Matt, you were displaying the EURO ensemble from last night’s run.

    Today’s run not available yet, however, the 12z euro operational run wants to
    deliver 18 inches on Boston with quite an event.

  34. Thank you tk 🙂

    Just a quick check in. Absolutely beautiful!! Currently 72 degrees 🙂

    1. How’s the water? Or are you too chicken to jump in.
      I was there in February once and the islanders had ski hats on.
      I was the ONLY one swimming around in the ocean. 😀

      1. It’s really been perfect weather wise, can’t complain. Dipped our toes in, it was cool, didn’t go swimming. However I would go swimming, just didn’t feel like it. Water temp is between 68-71 depending exactly where you are.

  36. My thoughts for the coming days… Don’t get your hopes up for today/tonight. Latest short range models (18z RAP/HRRR) strongly indicating Mr. Norlun will be a no-show, or at least too far east. I could see 1-3″ for southeast Mass. from the main precip shield associated with the low. But the Norlun will disappoint, and the disturbance from the west is unimpressive, just a few snow showers/squalls. C-2″ for most other places.

    Next weekend certainly has blockbuster potential, and it’s got the social media world lit up. But I would strongly caution that it’s still 6 days off. A lot can change.

  37. Does Boston look like it could get a lot tonight or Is there the remote possibility they only get a coating. I’m hearing different start times last I just saw was midnight.

    1. Looks like it’s going more east than north. Looks like you guys are dodging one from seeing all that precip well off shore, luckily moving east.

      1. That is from the storm system precipitation field.
        We are looking to precipitation coming from a Developing
        Norlun trough.

    2. Sure they could get a coating.
      What I see, 2 inches seems more likely with possibility of 4 inches.

      We shall see.

      I disagree with WxWatcher re: Norlun
      Again, we shall see.

    1. You still thinking the two for city with latest run or probably more confined to down here . I’m not holding you to anything you’re actually helping me as I value your expertise.

      1. John,

        That looks like a decent number.
        NWS is supposed to issue and advisory for 1-3 inches.
        Perhaps they have changed their mind? I do not know as of yet.

        I’d like see IF the 18Z GFS has backed off any as it was in
        the 3-4 inch range with the 12Z run.

        We shall see.

  42. Good time for the Boston Nexard radar to be down for maintenance!!!

    GEEZ, give me a break!! We NEED that radar display. C’mon guys!!!!!

      1. WoW! Thanks John.

        That advisory is for 3-5 inches and coming from the NWS

        I suspect we’ll see one for Eastern MA soon.
        Probably 1-3 inches. We shall see.

    1. Communications problem? Right! SUre!

      Hey Joe How much you think? I dunno, how much you think?
      I dunno, let’s ask Mikey. Hey Mikey how much you think?

      I dunno, beats the crap out of me!()@(#&*()!@#*()!*@*#

      I dunno, I dunno, I dunno.

      Put word out we’re having communications problems.

      1. 🙂 Verizon Business (may also include residential) outage in several SE towns, including Taunton and Duxbury.

  46. NWS must really be uncertain. My guess is they are waiting to have a look
    at the 18Z GFS. But who knows. IMHO, the advisory should have been up already.
    They could easily update totals up or down as conditions warrant. As it is, people are
    going to head out this evening and be unprepared and surprised!

  48. Looking at 4PM obs. Snowing all over Long Islad, NYC and White plains. Not up
    to Poughkeepsie. Snowing in CT at Bridgeport and Groton. No stations in RI
    reporting snow, not even block Island, which is strange.

    1. New York City Radar, now showing SNOW above us here in the Boston
      Area. Of course it’s not making it to the ground, but it is up there

          1. Sure looks like they waited to get a peek at
            the GFS. GFS quite ROBUST for Eastern
            MA.

            Will post snowmap when a couple more frames
            are ready.

  61. This is what my gut is telling me of. Of course you can’t rule out an isolated 5 6 inch amount where heavier snow bands set up.

    1. 😀

      You’re the winner! The first blogger to report flakes. Nice going. Now send
      them up here!! right now!

  63. I may be all wet, but this may be a situation where the snow doesn’t move in
    from the West or South but rather from above us. Snow may break out all
    over the area at about the same time. We shall see.

    2. Friends are flying out of Logan at 10 am Saturday, heading to St. Maarten. What is the thinking on the timing of this snow? Should they be prepared to go a day early?

      1. Still 6 days out. Early indications are a start of about 1-2 AM and going full tilt by 6 or 7 AM. This is Early. Remember it is 6 days out, but you asked for something. Again, this is for Saturday, 1/23.

  67. I wonder IF the HRRR has a clue on this event? OR it is leading the way?

    It is backing off to only 1-2 inches across the entire area.

    We shall see.

    My gut is telling me the HRRR is missing the boat on this.

    TK did you get the word on this? tx

  70. snow maps for tonight/early morning. I believe that there could be 2-5 inches of snow in eastern mass. but it is where the inverted trough sets up. I think it is going to not be widespread across eastern mass but in areas of the purple shade.

  71. Went from flurries to quite steady here in a matter of minutes. I am working at a bowling alley tonight and hoping it is quiet so we can get out at a decent hour.

    1. Most of the stuff coming up from the S will have trouble reaching the ground up here for a while. Snow amounts will depend on what comes with the inverted trough and a little bit of ocean enhancement. High stakes forecast/nowcast for a fairly small event but there you have it.

  74. Going to be a SE Mass “jackpot”. Near or just north/west of the canal. Maybe some 4-5″ amounts in there. Otherwise, C-2″.

        1. 1-2 there but depending on where the trough axis is they could end up in a very narrow area of slightly heavier.

    2. Agree as well. Radar trends indicate that. Jackpot between the canal and route 24. Elsewhere will be disappointed if they were expecting anything more than an inch or 2

  82. Very close game in progress between Pittsburgh and Denver. Looks like Denver is about to take the lead unless the Steelers step up the D here.

  83. There is no way that NWS’s “final” snow map for this event is human-made. It’s straight from model output. So they’re putting all their eggs in one basket.

    1. Guessing around 1 inch. If we get under the trough axis then add at least another inch. Won’t know til it sets up. I think the steadiest is done by 6AM but there may still be one more burst with the Arctic front after that.

        1. Keep an eye on the trends though. A very narrow enhanced precipitation area just developed overhead.

          1. I am convinced that Woburn is in a bad spot (or a good one depending) and always gets under these bands.

  85. Looks like cape get about an inch , the rest see just snow showers and flurries, after all that 🙂

    1. Did you forget that most of the snow is actually coming from an inverted trough and not the storm’s precip. shield? The Cape has mostly rain right now. Ground is covered in most of the rest of southeastern MA, and a steadier band of snow has just developed along I 95 N of Boston.

  90. …And it begins: Already seen one social media site calling for a “potentially crippling snowstorm” next weekend. Some things never change. Pick out the highest snow amount model run and “go with it”. Yup, that’s the smart way to forecast…

      1. I hardly make comments on those sites anymore. If I do it’s in a nice way to try to educate the readers.

        As for the people running them… Not much you can say will pull them down from their power trip.

  91. Not looking forward to tomorrow’s commute. There’s the snow, of course. Add to that, the T is running a Saturday schedule, and the red line will have “minor delays” due to this weekend’s work on the Longfellow Bridge.

    At least if the next storm is “crippling”, it will fall on a weekend, so everyone (the MBTA) will have the chance to respond under less pressure.

    1. I have to work next weekend. I just hope the T steps up this time and provide as close to full service as possible. There were issues even with the last one inch event.

  93. I am already some tweets comparing next weekend’s POSSIBLE storm to the blizzard of 96. WAY WAY to early to say that.
    Light snow outside my window. For my area to get a dusting its going to be have to come from squalls with the front.

    1. Some of the model forecasts simply have the same synoptic setup. Problem is, the overall pattern is not the same.

  94. Well, Mike Wankum just posted the Euro snow map on Twitter. All sorts of Blizzard of ’96 comparisons. Words like crippling, historic, paralyzing, etc… whole I95 corridor to be shut down… Yeah, I’d say hype train in full effect… Probably more than ever before, lol.

    No more than a half inch so far here in Wrentham. But already some amounts over 2″ on the South Shore. Looking at radar and latest HRRR runs, maybe some isolated 6-7″ amounts in Plymouth County.

    1. At times. Don’t forget in this set up the snow rates and bands can be highly variable. Just basically have to watch the radar and react to that from here on.

  97. Now we are diminishing the snow a little in my area and increasing it from the South Shore toward the city of Boston. I love these set-ups. It’s like a bubbling pot.

      1. Yes and no. You have upper level snow shield moving SSW to NNE and 2 other things going on, some synoptic banding which is basically forming and dissipating in place or drifting around mainly from northwest to southeast. The inverted trough will be like bubbles, or bands, that form and dissipate almost in place.

  99. Just got in and the side roads are pretty slippery! Trying to get up the slight hill in my driveway was not fun.

    1. This blows lol. This storm seems more of a mid Atlantic storm anyway. They are due for a big one anyway. We can’t get always get lucky

  103. I really have to put out a reminder not to worry about details of model runs for the storm threat at the end of the week…

    It’s too early. This system is not sampled well enough to be forecast well enough for any confidence. It remains just as uncertain a threat now as it was when I first mentioned it on January 10. When we get to about Tuesday, then we can start looking at a little more detail…

      2. One more batch, but mostly light, between now and 5AM. Probably less than 1 inch additional. The entire thing will be winding down during the next several hours and will not reach the higher numbers that some people put out there on their maps, save for a few isolated locations mainly in Plymouth County.

          1. I”m thinking the 911 failure has nothing to do with the weather. This is not the type of system that produces much in the way of trouble, other than temporarily slippery roads when it comes down harder for a time.

  104. Tweet from Ryan Maue on the 0z EURO
    ECMWF 00z slightly different track but still a crippling swathe of 20-30 inches snow from DC thru Jersey & Southern New England on weekend

  107. Was at this place called “Hog Penny” really a remarkable place. We found that everytime where we said we were from, the harsh winter was brought up, don’t get me wrong many said they could hear my ancient, and that it was a great town, but many said they couldn’t do it during winter. All we kept saying was we wish we could leave during those 5 months, or do a lot of what we’re doing now. 🙂 this had been a great trip so far.

  120. Just eyeballing it, maybe 2-3″ in Wrentham. Blowing snow as well- “snow globe” effect at times. Overall I think this dropped a little more snow than I expected, I’ll be interested in the reports as they come in.

  121. Well at least my forecast for snow amounts was better than Charlie’s. 😉

    Good morning all. Tossing in a quick update then I must hit the road for several hours.

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