Wednesday Forecast

283 Comments

3:16AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 20-24)…
Weakening disturbance tries to send some cloudiness in today and tonight but most of it dries up as we continue to be dominated by a west to northwest flow of cold air which will now persist through Thursday, finally letting up Friday. The trend for the weekend storm threat has been to slow the arrival of whatever impact wet get and shift the main action to the south, that is, a Mid Atlantic storm, with lesser impact up here. Still leaning that way today. No details on this update regarding snow amounts. Still too early. One thing that is more likely to be a factor is coastal flooding due to onshore wind and astronomical high tide, as the full moon occurs Saturday. More about this in coming updates…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 20s. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH gusting as high as 30 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 10s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH gusting as high as 25 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 20s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH gusting as high as 25 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 5-15. Highs 25-35.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow PM. Lows 10-20. Highs 20-30.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow AM. Lows 15-25. Highs 25-35.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 25-29)…
Dry and cool January 25. Risk of unsettled weather (precipitation type uncertain) January 26-27 but does not look major. Fair January 28-29 with temperatures close to normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 30-FEBRUARY 3)…
A couple of fairly weak systems pass through with episodes of precipitation but fair weather will be dominant much of the time. Temperatures variable, averaging near to above normal.

283 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  3. GFS 0z and 6z both give Boston .75 to 1″ qpf. What will the ratio’s be?

    Also heard it has slowed down, starts Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning.

    What are soo good places along the south shore to sea the waves? I’ve been to Brant
    rock but not sure if there are others.

  5. Thank you TK for that early morning update.

    This system continues to baffle me. Just not behaving in a normal fashion.
    I know it is due to split flow, but something does not seem to add up.

    Here are some snow totals:

    Euro 0Z

    http://imgur.com/6LNSm5u

    CMC 0z

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016012000/gem_asnow_neus_19.png

    GFS 6Z

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016012006/gfs_asnow_neus_21.png

    Very strange. It does not rain along the coast, yet there is a West to East cutoff?????
    Weird!

    Here is the Instant Weather Maps 6z GFS totals

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016012006&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=120

    Boston comes in with about 5 inches.

    I’m looking more into this. 😀

  6. Ok, I need to be schooled. This does not add up based on all of my experience.

    From the 6Z GFS, here is the storm at 90 hours, just off the VA coast. PERFECT, one
    would think:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2016012006&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=090

    Here is the 500 mb chart

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2016012006&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=090

    The 300 mb chart (closed low at 300 mb!!!)

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2016012006&var=GRDHGT_300mb&hour=090

    the 200 MB chart

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2016012006&var=GRDHGT_200mb&hour=090

    How the BLEEP does this thing NOT come up here and head more to the East.
    HOW? Makes no sense to me. I don’t see anything that would do that.

    Please please someone tell me what I am missing?

    Is there something above 200MB that is pushing this to the East? I’ve never seen
    a chart for a level above that.

    I just do not understand this.

    Also, please note: The precipitation field generally would be Farther North than
    depicted on all of the models. Very sharp cut off to the north of the system.
    What is doing it? Yesterday we could readily see a more West to East flow
    in the upper levels up here forecing East. I do NOT see that on these charts.
    Why? Why? Why?

    I need to be educated because this is blowing my mind.
    Help

    Many thanks

    1. the reason is due to the spin off of Delaware. STorm looks to stall off of Delaware. for a bit and then travel west to east then northwest/west southeast away from the coast. Also some show this storm weakening as well

  7. From the NWS this morning:

    https://scontent-lga3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/12417962_934813263279712_2323273172747184420_n.png?oh=d2d3af96aa409ad7536ccddbb45e989a&oe=5742EDBC

    Interesting discussion:

    AS FOR THE GFS ENSEMBLES THE GEFS IS QUITE TELLING WITH A FEW
    MEMBERS SIMULATING A COMPLETE MISS FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH MANY OTHER MEMBERS KEEPING THE BULK OF THE HEAVY PRECIP OFFSHORE AND JUST A GLANCING BLOW TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. REALIZING THE ENSEMBLES ARE LOWER RESOLUTION SO WOULDN/T EXPECT A SOLUTION OF THE SAME AMPLITUDE FROM ITS OPERATIONAL RUN BUT IT/S INTRIGUING THAT SO MANY GEFS MEMBERS ARE SO MUCH LIGHTER WITH THEIR QPF AND FARTHER
    OFFSHORE THAN THE OPERATIONAL RUN. WHAT MAY BE HAPPENING HERE IS ANOMALOUSLY WARM WESTERN ATLC SSTS COMBINED WITH A COLD AIRMASS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD…THE HIGHER RES MODELS COULD BE BETTER SIMULATING THE STATIC STABILITY OVER THE OCEAN AND BAROCLINICITY ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST. HENCE A STRONGER SOLUTION THAN ENSEMBLES.

      1. Looks that way John. Not sure anyone noticed, but
        the 0Z Euro showed MORE snow than the 12Z Euro.

        SO the Euro has trended a tad more North.

        I am getting the feeling that we may, indeed, get involved with
        some of the heavier snow.

        Looking forward to the 12Z runs.

  9. The Canadian ensembles look most aggressive for SNE. But it’s the Canadian so I’m disregarding. One thing is for sure this storm is loaded with moisture and one slight movement or change one way or the other will be huge interms of impact.

    1. Yes it was. I did place it in the “For What It Is Worth” department.

      I am not so sure this will be a miss. I SMELL A RAT, A BIG F’N RAT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      We shall see.

      Hope I didn’t go overboard with charts, but I thought these were ALL
      worth the viewing. 😀

  13. The GFS is really struggling. Toss it. No agreement with its ensembles, which shifted significantly south at 6z. 12z op run will hopefully correct. Euro hasn’t been super consistent either for our region, but I think its 0z run is decent with a light to moderate snowfall.

    1. Operational. I could be totally wrong, of course, but it’s a red flag for me that the operational has about half an inch QPF for Boston, but the ensemble mean is only half that. The ensembles also don’t have that odd sharp east/west cutoff that the 6z op run did. Like you said though, fun to watch, we’ll see what the 12z runs show 🙂

  17. The 0z guidance did shift north, although many good points have been raised regarding disagreement with ensembles and the ops…..I still like the trend(obviously). JJ has always said that when there is a storm on the east coast it needs to be watched closely and this is no different. I cannot wait to see the 12z data….keep the maps coming JP!

  20. Yes Go For Snow this storm system on the east coast needs to be watched. Any slight shift north or south could make a big difference.
    I think were going to get some snow but would not be surprised if I got more snow here in CT than you do.

  21. Tweet from meteorologist Gil Simmons here in CT who I think is the best meteorologist we have in this state.
    Should have somewhat better handle on Saturday’s snow with Wednesday’s model guidance. This storm hasn’t really taken shape yet!

  23. The key words in Gil’s tweet
    This storm hasn’t really taken shape yet. This indicates to me all options are on the table.
    Will see what 12z runs say.

    1. I couldn’t agree more.
      Upper winds “appear” to be buckling more.
      I am not convinced this is a miss. Could it be? SURE.
      We do not know yet.

      1. I won’t be surprised at anything. I am hopeful for a change
        and a snowier outcome for our region. If that does not
        materialize, so be it. 😀

  26. FWIW …..

    Comparing the hr 42 (12z NAM) to the hr 54 (00z NAM) …..

    The 12z NAM’s low at hr 42 is ever so slightly southeast of the 00Z NAM’s low at hr 54. By ever so slightly, I think we’re talking perhaps 25 miles. The pressures are exactly the same.

    1. Similar idea at hr 48 (12z) vs hr 60(00z). Ever so slightly further south on the 12z as the center passes through Alabama and Mississippi.

      Class arriving soon, wish I could watch the rest of the run. 🙂 🙂 🙂

        1. Not sure its that simple.

          Might effect the northern edge more than coastal New England.

          With a NE wind, I think some moisture is going to get thrown into eastern New England even if the storm shifts another 50 miles south.

          But, away from the coast, yes, I think that northwest cutoff to the precip will be very sensitive to a shift in track.

        2. Yes, indeed.

          UNLESS upper winds later bend more.

          We still don’t know how this run will pan out, however,
          looking at the 200MB flow, it does NOT give me a warm and fuzzy. We shall see.

    1. Yup, he took the GFS and the Euro and VIOLA, there’s your snow map.
      About 5 or 6 inches for Boston. Right in line.

      Let’s see what happens.

  32. Boy, 9 out of 10 times if u saw a map like that you would think we get croaked! This might be that 1 time.

    1. I keep seeing the 500mb and 300mb flow relax some to our North that
      in theory “should” allow it to at least get up to the Boston area and perhaps
      a tad farther North than that. We shall see.

      Now for the 12Z GFS to amuse us.

  34. One thing is the Mid Atlantic particularly Batimore D.C. areas get crushed with these models. Now can some of the heavier snow bands make it into SNE?

      1. He won’t say no just yet. He’ll wait for the GFS and the EURO.
        He “may” say that he now leans towards no. 😀

  36. I would be hesitant to trust the models and their slight wobbles north. we have seen models give us a big storm tracking further north then go south then go back north just to go south again.

      1. I have a feeling we will be putting the nail in the coffin after the next models run. Nothing but a gut feeling.

  39. ECMWF..like previously..has an out of whack snow algorithm. DTs mega snow in VA is not likely to verify. It is “better” at lower amounts. I got this info from the source so count on it as truth.

    NAM of course questionable at over 60 hours but it’s slowing of the system lends a bit more credibility to the ECMWF solution.

  40. This storm reminds me of one in 2010. I believe it was February 2nd. DC and Baltimore got absolutely hammered. We were supposed to get some snow, but wound up with zilch. My gut feeling tells me that this is what will happen, with only the southern most part of SNE getting any snow at all.

    1. I remember that one. I got stuck in Las Vegas as our Jet Blue flight
      couldn’t get to Boston from its hub. We got stuck 2 extra days.
      What a mess that was. Of course I didn’t mind be stuck in Vegas.
      It’s just that our room was comped, except I had to pay for the extra
      2 nights.

      I kept watching the weather channel and kept saying to my wife,
      where is the snow. he he he

  42. Good run for me though. Solid snow event here in CT. Hopefully no shifts south or the bigger totals will move further south.

  45. GFS went to its ensembles. Euro did the same thing last night- its 0z op run was close to its 12z ensemble mean. That’s a bit of a trick I’ve picked up on. The ensemble mean at one cycle very often foreshadows the operational at the next cycle. And now that everything is starting to match, we’re probably getting close to “locked in”. May shift south a bit more.

    1. I’ll probably “lock in” at 00z tonight or 12z tomorrow. There’s still room for surprise. Not likely but not gone.

  46. very disappointing indeed. It is still very close and the run to run instability leaves more doubt than usual in the eventual outcome. TK is the best, so his judgement on this is more than likely what happens. The closer we get, the less likely this changes unfortunately

  48. I am in the minority here but for me, less is better. I am liking the trend. Although, if we were to get a sizable storm, the timing on this one is optimal.

    2. Nothing wrong with not wanting snow. I’m not sure the majority wants snow as much as it enjoys tracking it and the anticipation of an event….same for summer storms.

  49. 12Z NAM at 81 hours

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016012012/namconus_ref_frzn_neus_27.png

    12Z NAM at 84 hours

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016012012/namconus_ref_frzn_neus_28.png

    It is slight, but yet noticeable. There is a Southward Shift to the Precipitation field.
    It hits a brick wall. Not looking Good.

    Waiting on the EURO and to a lesser extent, the CMC.

    Euro probably comes in with ZERO snow for Boston. 😀 😀 😀

    IF it comes in less, I will be ready to toss in the towel.

  50. I don’t think SNE gets much out of this storm at all. However, we shouldn’t completely discount the possibility of a more northerly course of the storm than forecast. Odds are overwhelmingly stacked against it. But, that was the case in late February 1999, too, when a storm that at one point sat well east of Virginia and DC (barely impacting that area) took an unexpected turn due north and really nailed the South Shore and Cape. I was at a conference in DC and my flight to Boston was cancelled. Took the train. No snow cover until around Providence. But, there was plenty from Providence to Boston and points south of Boston and east of Providence.

    1. Don’t remember the storm, BUT I certainly trust your memory.
      Yes it can happen.

      I also remember an early storm in December, I think the year John Lennon
      was murdered.

      All forecasts were for an OTS solution. ALL.
      Well, save one, but he was on an airplane and couldn’t broadcast on TV.
      Bob Copeland. He took off from Boston and noticed the cloud configuration
      and movement and KNEW Boston was in for it.
      Well, of course, we got it. Close to a foot. It took a turn to the North
      just as you described.

      Now, this does NOT mean that it will, but we can’t let our guard down
      just yet.

      1. That was a very cold December, correct – 1980. Coldest on record, perhaps. I remember, because the pipes froze at my parents’ house.

        The February 1999 storm was not massive by any stretch, but towns to our south like Hanover got over 15 inches of snow, and I believe other locales on the South Shore, too. A lot of wind, snow, and rain on the Cape and Islands.

        From what I recall Boston had about 8 inches or so when all was said and done. I could be remembering inaccurately, but I’m usually pretty good in the memory department.

          1. You were not out chipping ice off of horse’s water buckets and shoveling piles of both snow and manure in December 1993 were you 😉

  51. Given El Nino and the affects we have seen on the atmosphere the last few months ….

    Is it fair to make this general conclusion ……

    When we get phasing this winter, its going to be phasing that results in an inside runner.

    Without the phasing, decent storms are going to miss out underneath us OR as we saw about a week ago, they will come close to us without cold air in place.

    I guess the point or question I am getting to is this ….

    What kind of system/setup that would give us a healthy snowfall seems most likely to occur given what we have seen ?

    I am struggling to find the scenario.

    Because if someone offers a strong northeaster, I am going to counter with likely split flow and probably a miss.

    If someone says phasing, I am going to counter that its likely a powerful inside runner.

    What gets it done this winter ??? Ideas ?????

          1. According to TK there will be one more warmup to start February and thereafter we snow…at least to some extent.

    1. Good question.

      To me, I’m not it will be cold enough at the surface to generate
      the need disparity in temperature.

      I found this:

      The change between the lake’s surface T and the level in the clouds at 850mb is called the ΔT (Delta T) value. The minimum ΔT needed to get lake effect snow started is 13°C. 15°C to 20° is the optimum range for lake effect snow development, particularly moderate to heavier showers/plumes. But another important factor is needed to set off the formation of lake effect snow clouds. Above 850mb, the atmosphere must be moist enough to support dendritic snow growth. Too much dry air (an inversion) will only lead to light snow, flurries or just lake effect clouds.

      So the question is do we have a 15 Degree C differential from the ocean
      temp and 850MB temp.

      Let’s see. From the GFS, 850MB temps are between -10 and -15 C
      Ocean temp is about 45 or about 7C

      7C to -10C = 17 C
      7C to -15 C = 22 C

      Sounds to me like there is a distinct possibility of Ocean Effect snow.

  56. Regarding Ocean Effect Snow.

    I remember an event in the late 60s sometime or there about.
    There was a system to the South, but it didn’t make it up here, however,
    it did generate a windfield up here from the NE. We got about 8 inches
    of Ocean Effect snow. It can happen. This time? Who knows.

  57. If we get more snow where I am North of Charlotte, NC (Near Hickory) than you get here in Boston, I’m going to throw a freaking fit.

    1. Incorrect on his part. The low actually does look a bit north, but whether it’s trajectory, different structure, or something else, this is a less snowy run for SNE. Less than one inch for Boston.

  59. Other thoughts ….

    check out the 850 mb temperature gradient on this storm from Friday into Sunday (hr 48 to hr 96).

    For heavy snow, I’d think you’d want that gradient to be strong and getting stronger and reasonably close to you.

    Well, on this storm, that temperature gradient is weakening with time and its fairly far out to sea.

    Definitely lighter precip in southern New England, and now without precip intensity and dynamics nearby, you have to wonder if, especially in eastern Mass, whatever falls is a very wet snow or even a mix of light rain and snow. Not very cold 850 mb temps and an ocean temp that is still nearly 45F.

    Snow totals, if this holds, I would agree should be quite minimal for Boston and maybe even interior SE Mass.

  60. In some ways this storm may be the most over-hyped in recent memory. I say this because I can’t see the 2 feet verifying even in the current jackpot zone. Maybe 18 inches of fairly wet snow in the interior of Virginia. But, I wouldn’t bet on it. If I’m reading the models correctly, and admittedly I may not, this storm has two things working against it being an `historic’ one: 1. Something Tom mentioned; temperature gradient. This won’t just impact our chances of seeing a little snow. I would not be surprised if the coastline of the Mid-Atlantic turns out to be mostly rain, with a mix 25-50 miles from the coast. 2. Most of the significant precipitation from this system will be over the ocean and not land.

  65. Might this have been our best shot at a significant storm this winter? The pattern certainly doesn’t seem to be favorable for big storms in SNE anytime soon. We may just dink and dunk out way to the finish line with 1-3 inchers and just avoid a historically low snowfall total if we’re lucky.

    1. TK says February is our time to snow. I think we see something next month
      to put us well above record low snowfall. Let us hope anyway.

      This whole thing left a really bad taste, I’ll tell you.

      Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes, HA HA HA NO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      1. February may be much colder, but that doesnt mean the pattern will be more favorable for snow. If anything, colder means more opportunity for the same thing to happen again that happened to this storm.

        1. Tk says in addition to cold, the pattern WILL be more
          favorable. Time will tell.

          Hard to get excited when this kind of crap keeps happening. This storm was our ONLY chance to possibly meet or exceed seasonal average. Not a chance now.

  66. The sad thing is, this storm was hyped so much all week even up here that most people I’ve talked to even today are saying we’re getting a blizzard this weekend and have cancelled all weekend plans. I partly blame the listeners for not understanding the complexity of the situation but still, some blame to the media.

    1. Pete B. put out his #Blizzardof2016 tweet days ago. I noticed he hasn’t posted anything on that account in almost a day since the southward trend became evident HA.

        1. As he said…

          “The hype train has left the station. Here, let me throw some gasoline on it: #Blizzardof2016”

    1. The Sports hub hosts for the past 2 days keep saying how great it would be if the Pats were playing at home sunday in the blizzard

  68. Joshua posted an article on it earlier, but to supplement: NOAA released the 2015 annual climate report today (and December report). Amazing statistics that really should give everyone pause. As a summary, with links below…

    *December 2015 was warmest December on record and most anomalously warm month of any month on record, with the first ever +2F global anomaly. Land and ocean temps both record warmest also.
    *2015 warmest year on record by a whopping .16C, with a +.9C (+1.6F) anomaly
    *2015 land and ocean temperatures were both warmest on record by large margins
    *4th time in the 21st century that a new “warmest year on record” has been established
    *39th consecutive above normal year
    *15 of the 16 warmest years on record have occurred in the 21st century (1998 is the other)

    https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201513

    https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/summary-info

    1. sad that there are still those not willing to do anything about it. Including those on here that do not believe there is enough evidence. How big of a metal bat needs to be used?

      1. Based on what? 100 or so years of stats? Over 4 billion years of unrecorded stats that mean nothing. Maybe we are getting back to normal but we think it’s abnormal. After all, we know the Earth was much warmer at one point than now. Who’s to say that’s not normal?

        1. I generally try to avoid debating the issue. The stats are what they are. My scientific intellect, from my education, personal research, and observation tells me what we are seeing is not normal. I respect all opinions, but do encourage everyone (including those in my camp, which is the vast majority of the climate science community) to keep an open mind. I also encourage everyone interested to research the issue on their own as well. However, I am firm in my belief that we must act based on the best information and scientific theories that we have currently available to us.

          1. Very nicely stated, WxWatcher. The reality is that if we “act based on the best information and scientific theories,” we have absolutely nothing to lose. If we do not, we definitely have some to lose and possibly have a lot to lose.

            Acting is a win/win, in my opinion.

            I’ve said it before …. I am counting on your generation. Mine sure isn’t getting it done.

  69. I wish I was wrong 3 days ago lol, Hoped for a big storm. Does not look good for any east coast storm after this for about a week or two. It is either there is not cold high to the north or it is in the wrong freaking place.

  72. There was actually quite a bit of weather banter yesterday on sports radio. I found it amusing.

    Yesterday, Dale Arnold was at least a bit more attuned to reality when he declared that “one weather model suggests we’ll get over a foot of snow, and another around an inch.” To which Michael Holley responded, “yeah, I’m definitely going with the second model.” Holley reflects the views of most people that snow is not a sought after thing.

    Thornton then started giving forecasters grief, saying that “it’s all hype. … When they say it’s going to be 12 inches you can cut that in half or more. We’ll probably get an inch or two. The exception being last year when they said we’d get 2 feet and actually got 4.” I’m paraphrasing.

    Mike Adams later chimed in during his show about how “friggin’ cold” it is and that he “quite frankly [doesn’t] care why … those weather nerds will tell you it’s because of high pressure moving in from this side and low pressure doing something else … damn it, I don’t care why, I just want to know the weather right now, what we can expect tomorrow, and move on.” I’m paraphrasing.

  73. From my perspective as a business owner the damage has already been done. Tons of weekend cancellations and regardless of what happens now people are already planning not to go out this weekend. Increasingly it seems the “weather” the people pay the most attention to is what’s on face book, twitter, Instagram etc – not what’s going on outside. I’ve already seen this storm being called a “flop, dud, bust” how can something that hasn’t happened be called any of those things?

      1. This is true, Charlie. And, M.L. I hear you as well.

        I love snow, and I think it’s important for some businesses (eg, ski industry), but overall a major storm does damage to our economy.

        1. I am certain it hurts many businesses. M.L. I am sorry your business is suffering this weekend. I also think you are right that people turn to social media. I agree with Ace’s comment above also that people are to blame but those passing themselves as weather experts are as well.

          Enter the contrarian . I am also certain snow helps others. Not just in ski country as Joshua has wisely stated. Plow drivers, salt and sand suppliers, winter sports stores, etc.

          It would be interesting to do a comparison to see how one offsets the others.

          1. Yes, I forgot to include plow drivers, salt and sand supply companies, winter sports stores.

            I think some regions benefit more from snow than others: Northern N.E. I believe the major cities benefit least.

  74. From Eric Fisher
    The plot thickens….EPS members bring significant snow a tick farther north for us. Time to put a map together.

      1. The BZ website blows chunks. Slow as it could possibly be
        and it jumps around all over the place while one tries to read!

  76. WeatherWiz, I do think it’s good to have a balanced debate on global warming and climate change. This means that we should keep in mind that the time during which we’ve kept climate records is a mere blip, as you correctly assert. This said, it would be foolish to ignore data or simply pursue a status quo policy in which we do nothing about carbon emissions, pollutants, toxins, and other possible dangerous substances to human and animal life. I’m reminded of an example of how we avoided status quo thinking many decades ago. Scientists began measuring pollution levels in our waterways in a systematic way in the 1950s and 60s. They noted alarming amounts of toxins and pollutants, which not only made the waterways dirty and unfit for recreation, but also led to the destruction of wildlife, disrupting the ecosystem. Since that time, we’ve come a long way to addressing the pollution in many of our waterways. It’s not a perfect system, but it’s generally working. Similarly, over 100 years ago, vast expanses of land were being exploited without due regard for the environment. Our politicians and policymakers made a bold choice to allot large swaths of state and federal land as sanctuaries to wildlife (and humans) while prohibiting commercial development. I think we can all agree that this was a wise choice.

    1. Another excellent comment. You know I agree. Excellent comparison to the warnings with regard to our waterways. I remember a ton of pushback then as well. And now I have Dirty Water playing in my head 🙂

        2. Perhaps that is the control run?

          In any case, the ensemble mean has the center
          farther east than the operational, so I don’t get it.

    1. I still think we see a shift back to the north a little bit in future runs. There was a year that we would be a miss 3 days out only to come roaring back in the day or two before.

      1. Yes, we have seen that before, but NOT with this split flow.
        Therefore I lean towards that not happening.

  81. Channel 7 is saying snow will not reach north of rt 2, Boston is right on the edge of very light accumulations, south of providence a couple inches, leaning towards the heavy snow shield doesn’t make it north of coastal ct coastal ri, DC to Philadelphia jackpot of 18-24

  82. Like WXwatcher, I don’t like entering the global warming, climate change, etc debate, but I think a couple points need to be made. 1) Carbon dioxide is NOT a pollutant. You and I breathe it for one, and plants rely on it to survive. In short it is an intricate part of our planet’s ecosystem and the circle of life. Who is to decide on how much CO2 one can produce, anyways? I’m sure there’s a Czar for that. In short, CO2 has been vilified and hung out to dry.

    2) It is true that our “records” are NOT statistically relevant or significant. I would liken it to a baseball player who bats 10 times with 5 of those being hits over the course of a year. That batter has a .500 batting average. In any given year he would be the batting champion, yet he is not, because it is not a relevant statistic given the lack of at bats. That doesn’t matter, many will counter, coming up with their own reasons for why it’s different in this case. Assuming there was enough data, there are still issues with the data itself in terms of where and how it is taken. Should we use temperature data from cities which artificially hold in heat?(heat island effect) Does that seem like a good measurement to you? I agree with not polluting our rivers or air with actual pollutants like mercury or lead for instance, that is common sense. I would only argue to reserve judgement on CO2 and the idea that the world is ending because of it. In my mind the jury is still open as to its impact on the planet with some even arguing it is a net benefit.

    1. . There is a certain type of CO2 look up the different types of CO2 you might be surprised. There are small differences. Just like chocolate to much is a bad thing. to much of one type of chemical in the air becomes a pollution. Look up the definition of Pollution.

      1. Greenhouse gases are a combination. CO2 is part. Chlorofluorocarbons are a problem. CH4, NO2, etc. Mac was far more knowledgeable than I. He spent his career testing several of the pollutants. But it isn’t just the air we pollute. We have polluted every corner of our earth. It has to stop. Look at Flint MI. When we kill one plant or one species, we change the entire system.

    1. I think that is to high. send the sharp cut off area to ct and RI Boarder.s down into parts of southeast mass. Areas south of the pike in the 0-1.
      6+ CT coast

    1. Remember trends too. This is the start of one. Mother Nature is pointing to where it is going to snow this year.

    1. I think if any snow does fall in Boston, it will be from the onshore flow. Very dry at 850mb with what looks like a subsidence inversion.

  87. Flying to Paris on Saturday evening from Logan on business, have been sweating it for a couple days now! My admin put a 24 hour hold yesterday on a Friday night flight, but I cancelled that and will stick with my original plan on Saturday night… seems safe enough now!

  88. Strong winds Saturday night? Strong enough to knock out cable? Or will they mostly be closer to the shore? Eric has them 55-60 to the south?

    Also, even without a direct hit from the storm, will coastal flooding be bad? I’m actually hoping we do not get this. The south shore has had enough damage in the past few years and could use a break. I know I’ll love it if it arrives and hoping changes nothing but doesn’t look to benefit ski areas anyway so I’ll hope away

    1. Vicki, I hope and think that with the storm being further offshore, the winds shouldn’t be so bad. Probably those 50 and 60 mph gusts to remain south and east of New England. Windy yes, some splash over and minor coastal flooding, but I think we may have dodged a big mess along the coast.

  89. Tweet from meteorologist ED Vallee. TK is this what your thinking for these cities as well or something completely different?
    A few select city snowfall ranges:
    NYC: 8-12″
    PHL: 12-18″
    DC: 12-18″, locally 24″
    Bridgeport, CT: 4-8″
    Hartford, CT: 3-6″
    Boston: 1-3″

    1. DC 10- to 2 feet
      PhL 12-18
      NYC 5-10 inches
      Bridgeport 4-8
      Hartford CT 3-6
      Providence RI 1-3
      Boston less than 1 inch.

  90. Even TWC has given up on snow for Boston. My local forecast for sat night through sun is snow showers and <1"

    1. Someone tell me that Eric Fisher changed his mind at the last minute and did not go with his afternoon snow map on his weather casts.

      I more believe what the TWC is going with.

        1. I don’t think we get much.

          Besides storm track, etc …. Without the heavier precip and dynamics, I don’t think it’s going to be particularly cold in New England this weekend. Close to 32F, so if we manage to get into some northern fringe light precip, I don’t think it will accumulate easily anyway.

    2. Bernie thinks that is still a possibility (or a bust) – “There are going to be surprises with this storm. I am trying to figure out what those surprises will be. video does discuss this.” Bernie posted on twitter toady at 2:18 PM.

  93. 6-12 inches as close by as NYC for me. I have a feeling its going to be 1-3 inches at best and the 1-3 south of Boston.

  94. The local ABC station there WABC is going 6-12 inches for NYC.
    The local CBS station there is going with 3-6 inches. I tend to agree with the 3-6 inches in NYC.

  95. I think NYC might not get that kind of snow either and by a lot.

    Looking at the models snow projections, one might think there’s arctic air feeding into this storm causing big snow ratios and big accumulations.

    I think only areas under very heavy precip will come close to verifying and maybe not even those locations in the mid-Atlantic. Anyone outside of the heaviest of precipitation will miss the snowfall projections by at least half due to marginal temps.

  97. Tom, I concur with you. I think the forecasts are overdone everywhere. I believe we’ll see not a single flake in Boston. Just overcast snow skies. Dusting in Providence, perhaps. Maybe an inch or so of slush on the Cape, and maybe 2 inches of glop in Nantucket. A couple of inches perhaps at JJ’s. NYC may get in the 3-6 inch range. Big winners will be Baltimore and DC with over a foot of heavy, fairly pasty snow. Could see a 15 inch reading in either city. Perhaps a 20 inch measurement in the interior, but I’m skeptical. I’m seeing models projecting over 30 inches of snow in the interior of Virginia. I don’t see that happening, given the temperature gradient which favors a low ratio, the fact that most of the `action’ or precipitation will be offshore and a fairly progressive system. It’s not a slow mover once it hits the coast.

  99. I am agreeing with most of you.
    Not sure boston sees a flake.
    There will have to be some dramatic
    Changes and soon.

  100. Boston may not see a flake (or it may), but I don’t think this will bust for DC. One for the ages down there. I’d set the over/under for the city at 24″. “Bust” would be in the 12-18″ range. Plenty of widespread 24-36″ totals for that whole region. Icing also a major concern especially in North Carolina. Storm surge/coastal flooding also very much in play.

    1. Even with the lower ratio’s? I see a lot of rain at the immediate coastline and some mixing issues 25-50 miles from the coast. Fairly stale cold air, if you will, combined with milder than normal ocean temps.

      If what you’re saying is accurate this would be a very significant blizzard. I’ll take into account what you’re projecting and let my brother know (he lives in Baltimore.

      1. I definitely see where you’re coming from, and right at the coast (ocean coast, not so much Chesapeake) will definitely have mixing/low ratio issues. But 10:1 should be pretty close for DC/Baltimore. And don’t just take it from me- “first call” NWS forecast for DC is 22″. My 24″ is just a little more round 🙂

        http://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter#wsoutlook

  101. John, blizzard warning is warranted for DC and Baltimore, but no other major city, I believe. The storm will move off the Virginia coast due east just as the February 2010 storm did. That storm dumped a lot of snow in DC and Baltimore. It was also a colder storm than this one, with higher ratios, which is why I don’t think DC or Baltimore will get much more than 12-15 inches of snow. Philly could get 6-10, and then the northern cut-off will be sharp. I think you’ll see maps on Saturday that make it appear that it’s snowing in, say, Providence (which it will be in the sky), but it will be a losing battle as the snow never makes it to the ground and gets munched up by the very dry air.

    2. I still don’t understand completely
      Why the eastern movement.
      I know winds are most weterly
      North of us. Only thing I can think
      Of is that it sort blows off the
      Northern portion of the storm
      So the storm in order to stay
      Intact moves East. Almost like
      It was a living creature.

      1. It’s (the upper level disturbance) momentum across the U.S. due to the zonal flow is largely west to east.

        There’s nothing really in the atmosphere at the east coast, in the Atlantic or in the Maritimes to change that direction of movement. It’s like a bowling ball that’s been thrown straight down the lane and there’s nothing on the lane to alter its trajectory.

        1. That explanation helps me zero.
          The 500, 300, and 200 flow is almost
          North to south, yet system moves
          East?????

          Thanks for trying.

          2. I’ll try another …..

            I’m sure you’ve seen plenty of hurricane radar loops with the rotation of the precipitation.

            If one focuses on just the circulation of the precip, it can be easy to think the rain will certainly hit a given spot, especially to the north and northwest.

            Then, hours later, the precip never makes it there.

            And, it’s usually because of the translation of the entire precip area. While the echoes may be rotating north and northwest, the whole precip area might be sliding eastward and so, the precip never makes it that far north and west, in spite of how it might look.

            I know, strike 2. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  102. “…life-threatening conditions [are] expected Friday night into Saturday night,” the National Weather Service says.”

    When did winter get so dangerous? Then when summer rolls around it’s the sun that will kill you ha.

  103. Maybe it’s still to early to guess, but why not ? 🙂

    Boston : < 1 inch

    NYC : 2 inches

    Philadelphia : 7 inches

    DC : 10 inches

    Maybe those more elevated areas getting into western VA or eastern West Virginia get 15 to 20 inches

    I do feel for the coastal areas from central NJ southward to the Virginia/NC border.

    I've had the fortune to camp in some areas down in the mid-Atlantic and hope they don't take a severe coastal pounding.

    1. You are so conservative.
      Generally speaking I don’t
      Give a rat’s Ass what happens
      In the mid-Atlantic.
      2-3 feet, no. 12-18 inches, yes.

      1. 🙂 🙂 yes, quite so.

        I really am having trouble believing that DC area bullseye on the models. What kind of melted precip is it going to take to accomplish that ?

    2. Yes, I’ve also camped there. I know what you mean. Some of those areas also bore the brunt of Sandy. I do think the Cape and Islands are in for a windy weekend with gale force winds likely at times on Nantucket. Storm surge and waves will be an issue, too.

      1. They sure did (Sandy).

        It was eye-opening seeing pictures of what happened to Assateague Island and nearby Ocean City, MD. Certainly not to the extent of NJ and NYC, but still bad enough.

  104. Looking ahead to late Jan/early Feb, all that snow from this storm `down south’ will melt very rapidly, I think. I’m going to be in Alexandria, VA, for a conference on the 28th. I think there will still be snow on the ground. But, it’ll be melting quickly after that.

  105. Per necn, MBTA had the most delays and not mechanical failures than anywhere in the country.

    Go ahead and put this down

          1. Agreed, but where will the money come from? Hell, our own hometown voted down a property tax increase from an already low rate to help fund education. How are we going to pass funding for the MBTA

  106. Not weather related: when I was in Bermuda, there were so many patriots fans and Manchester United fans, I was very suprised, I talked to many many many different folks that all wanted patriots to go to there 9th Super Bowl

    1. Like the winner of the 10K 🙂

      Florida has a ton of Boston sports fans too. Stands to reason, People retire or have second houses in both.

    2. When I used to cruise to Bermuda frequently we would visit a bar in St. George’s called Freddie’s. The owner was a Pats fan and would give away a set of tickets each Labor Day weekend.

  107. Good line from Eric fishers blog tonight, “I always tell people that in this day and age, we know too much but not enough.” That’s how I feel about this storm.

    1. Yeah, LOL !!!!!!

      Made me think of that one storm last year where it had a ton of snow ill to Montreal, a bullseye of incredible snow in northern New England and in actuality, the NAM’s prediction was like 150 miles too far north. I want to say this may have happened multiple times last year (too far north)

      Oh and we can’t forget to multiply the snowfall predictions by .4 🙂 🙂 🙂

                1. Who knows. My guess at this point is that those numbers will shift even
                  farther South. Reading that NWS discussion, there is still time for a shift North. I am NOT holding my breath for that, but we shall see.

        2. If that is so, then they swallowed the NAM hook line and sinker. Unless something dramatic happens, Boston
          is about to get nearly zilch, perhaps an inch or two.

  119. Good morning. I retired last night with a glimmer of hope as the GFS came a tad North
    and the NAM, ah the goof ole NAM. Cmc came a tad North as well. Then to be dashed to
    pieces with the NAM and GFS 6Z Run. 0Z euro came a tiny bit North, but not much.

    Still wrestling with the Eastern movement of this system.

    This 200MB chart probably explains it about the best. Notice west to East flow
    starting about our latitude. I guess that is what it pushing everything East
    South of us and also why the cutoff is so sharp.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2016012106&var=GRDHGT_200mb&hour=066

    1. Very interesting discussion from NWS this morning that helps explain
      the movement of this system and the sharp cutoff of precip:

      KEY SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND UNCERTAINTY…

      KEY SYNOPTIC FEATURES WITH THIS STORM WILL BE THE BATTLE GROUND BETWEEN THE CONFLUENT ZONE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION AND THE LARGE INTENSE MID LEVEL LOW TRACKING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THE CONFLUENT ZONE WILL PROVIDE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND…RESULTING IN A VERY SHARP CUTOFF
      IN SNOW TOTALS OVER OUR AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. HOW MUCH SHORT WAVE RIDGING THIS MID LEVEL LOW CAN GENERATE IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR NORTH CONFLUENT ZONE SHIFTS. OTHER COMPLICATING ISSUE WITH THIS STORM IS THAT THE MID LEVEL LOW IS NOT A TIGHT COMPACT CIRCULATION. ITS VERY LARGE AND BROAD WHICH WILL
      ALLOW THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT PRECIP TO WRAP CYCLONICALLY /TROWAL- COMMAHEAD/ VERY FAR TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. AS MENTIONED ABOVE KEEP IN MIND THE AVG MODEL TRACK
      ERROR AT THIS TIME RANGE /72-84HRS/ IS ON THE ORDER OF 125 MILES PERWPC. THIS COULD BE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HEAVY SNOW REMAININGOFFSHORE OR ACROSS THE DENSELY POPULATED I-95 CORRIDOR OF CT/RI ANDMA. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE IN PAST STORMS /EX. 10 FEB 2010/ MODELS MAY
      NOT CORRECTLY SIMULATE THE PLACEMENT OF THIS VERY TIGHT QPF GRADIENT UNTIL 12 HRS OR LESS BEFORE THE STORM ARRIVES. THUS NEED TO LET THE MODELS RUN THEIR COURSE AND WAIT FOR A BETTER CONSENSUS. THUS A MODEL BLEND IS STILL OUR FRIEND. HENCE OUR SNOW FORECAST IS BASED ON A MODEL BLEND.

  120. Really feel living on the edge here in CT. Blizzard Warning just to the south in Long Island NYC Winter Storm Watch in Westchester County which boarders Fairfield County in CT. Snowfall amounts from the NWS out of Upton, NY has my area with 5 inches of snow. More at shoreline closer to 8 inches and double digit snowfall in and around NYC.
    If this thing COULD shift 25 miles north I am in it here in CT. Looking at the map I don’t think they were using 6z American model runs.

    1. This whole thing has been a Fiasco. And the HYPE!!! GEEZ what a joke!!!

      The crazy thing is that it would not take much of a change to get the heavier
      snow up to Boston. I do NOT see that happening, but then stranger things
      have happened.

      What a tease the 0Z NAM was, what a TEASE!!!

      On the bright side, the EURO brings the 29th system close enough for
      some accumulating snow. Not a ton, but more than this pathetic piece of
      crap storm.

      http://imgur.com/AHt6xfv

        1. I don’t know what logic they are using.

          I think their numbers are too high and too far North.

          We shall see.

          I wonder if the 12Z runs show any significant changes or
          just minor variations.

  122. The thing which is a killer for a snow lover all we need is a 25 mile shift north and were in business.

    1. You May be, we up here need a bigger shift than that. 😀

      I don’t think it is going to happen. We can watch and hope, but we must
      be real about this.

      I’d love to see a dramatic shift that has the heavier stuff coming all the way up
      here. What would the Mets say then? That would be something. Pure
      fantasy at this point.

      1. Even at the max model error at this point of 125 miles would just barely get us into warning criteria snow

  123. I would rather a miss than be so close with heavier snow just south of me.
    I remember a Saturday storm a few years ago it was a Thursday the 18z runs started a trend north and we got into the heavier snow. Not saying this will happen but you never know.

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