Friday Forecast

508 Comments

7:18AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 22-26)…
High pressure hangs on one more day today which will feature plenty of sun but still cold air in place. This sets the stage for the side-swipe by a very large Winter storm passing south of the region this weekend. At this point the thinking on the track of this system has not really changed. What must be understood here is as a forecaster you’re trying to figure out subtle movements of essentially the northern edge of a system that’s tremendous in size, and that shifts of just mere miles will make a difference of up to inches in terms of snowfall. That said, the overall idea remains the same. The numbers will appear below in the forecast section, but I will preface it here by saying that my leaning is toward the lower end of the ranges in northern areas and the higher end of the ranges in southern areas. I can elaborate in the comment section below this discussion/forecast. Still looking for improvement as the storm moves away Sunday, nice weather Monday, and a quick turn to mild weather and an approaching system that may bring a touch of mix then some rain showers Tuesday.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows in the 10s. Wind light N.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Snow developing mainly southern areas afternoon, may mix with rain Cape Cod and Islands. Highs 28-35. Wind E increasing to 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH near the South Coast with higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of snow northern MA and southern NH. Snow likely southern MA and RI but may mix with rain Cape Cod and Islands. Most likely snow accumulation: 6-10 inches immediate South Coast of RI and MA including southern Cape Cod, 3-6 inches just north of there, 1-3 inches interior southern MA up to about the Mass Pike (1-2 inches Boston), and generally 1 inch or less northwest and north of Boston. Lows 25-33. Wind E 15-35 MPH, strongest along the coast with higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Gradually thinning and breaking overcast with snow ending northwest to southeast. Highs in the 30s. Wind NE to N 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 15-25. Highs in the 30s.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of very light mix morning and rain showers afternoon. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 27-31)…
The final days of January will feature mostly dry weather and somewhat variable temperatures but overall on the milder side of average.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 1-5)…
Mild and dry for a few days to start then a frontal passage with a minor precipitation event leads to fair and cooler weather by the end of the period.

508 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  1. NOTE:
    Not many will mention this, but I think the safe thing is to lean toward the higher numbers of the range nearer to the South Coast and to the lower numbers as you head northward toward the MA/NH border. What I mean here is, in the 3-6 range, 6 is probably more likely. In the 1-3 range, 1 is probably more likely. This is due to the sharp precipitation gradient which is likely to exist. It’s getting picky but that’s the idea at this point.

    1. My feeling right now is we’ll get 2-3 inches LESS than we got on Sunday night. That should put us in the vicinity of about 1 inch. But again take note of the sharp cut off. We could still end up virtually shut out.

  5. I kind of hope in a way that these totals in NYC and other places happen because if they don’t it’s going to make the mets look pretty bad and people will be talking about hyping etc…

    1. This suggests much more snow in Boston than I think any of the models are saying. Has the storm tracked north? I haven’t checked since late last night.

        1. Thanks, TK. The air is VERY dry. I believe it will chomp away at much of the snow that does fall out of the sky in Massachusetts.

  9. Respected colleague has cautioned about buying any increase based off the 06z runs. He didn’t get too specific as to why.

  10. Sounds good. We just have to wait and see. Was it Scott that said the 06 and 18z were going to have more info in them?

    Also thanks TK for update and JP for all the links

  11. Does anyone remember the storm a handful of years ago that had meteorologists offering on air apologies the day after it passed by.

    Even hours before the storm, we were going to get clobbered. Feet of snow. Schools went home early, businesses let out early. We got 2 inches of snow.

    I believe, based on recollection, that these storms, where the surface and upper low are moving nearly due east as opposed to east-northeast or northeast, the vast majority of time, the northern shield of snow does not make it into southern New England.

    We’ve lived this scenario before and that’s why I don’t think these southern New England snow amounts happen.

      1. Odd that some of the discussion here got me thinking of that storm a few days ago but it went in one side of my head and out the other. I do not know enough to know it is the same situation. Thanks, TK and Tom!

    2. Wasn’t that an issue of the warmer upper air keeping it more rain than snow. I do remember Ken Barlow apologizing on air. That was also on the heels of that horrible commute home when schools let out at noon right as the storm came through…

    3. I remember it well. I believe I still have the email from Pete. He, along with the others, all said they were totally embarrassed. I have no idea why as they are human and, as humans, none of us are perfect. Unfortunately, too many readers think they should be.

      1. Oh absolutely. They NEVER should have had to apologize. That was ridiculous.

        I was just referring to that system because I think it’s so similar and therefore, why not use it as prior experience and NOT make the SAME mistake twice (with snow projections)

  12. As advertised here in NC so far. Lots of freezing rain and about 3 inches of snow. Expecting more of the same throughout the day.

    Hope you snow lovers get yours up there! Wish I could send mine!

  15. This storm is very similar to the one on Feb 2, 2010. Brought major snows to DC and Baltimore. Was predicted to head up the coast, as many such storms do, but meandered east and gave us practically nothing. Now, to be fair to mets, after Monday this week no-one said it would head up the coast and do the same damage to Boston as DC or Baltimore.

    It’s a very difficult forecast. TK is to be commended once again for his fact-based, cautious take on all the various model guidance together with analytical skills and historical precedent.

    1. I agree 100%. TK does a great job, even if I question his conservatism sometimes. It is best to be more conservative when dealing with the public (and for forecast purposes, he is dealing with the public even on this blog)

      That’s not my job. I try to be real, but at the same time I am looking
      for what I want out the situation.

      I find this one fascinating.

    2. It was and it wasn’t….all guidance came around to the idea of no snow up here 24 or so hours before the storm. It was also much colder and drier than it is now. Agree that TK is the best

  16. Ok, don’t put much stock in the 6Z runs. Well what about the 0Z runs that
    came farther North with more snow? Want to discount those as well?

    This one is a rough one.

    I am open to any possible outcome. I will monitor the next runs and re-evaluate.

    Anyone have any snow maps from the RPM model?
    Is it still robust I am wondering???? tx

    1. The 00z NAM was a kaboom. They may as well unplug that model and reinvent it. It shouldn’t be that far off this close to an event.

  17. Interesting from the HRRR experimental

    System centered off of Northern SC

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2016012208/full/3hap_sfc_f22.png

    Moves almost due North to Inland North Carolina

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2016012208/full/3hap_sfc_f18.png

    500 mb chart

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2016012208/full/vort_500_f22.png

    250 mb chart

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2016012208/full/wind_250_f22.png

    Why do I post these you ask? Well, what my concern here is:
    Is the Northern stream relaxing “just a bit” to allow the system to throw
    some of the heavier stuff at least into Southern New England. A reach?
    Perhaps. But this is what I do. I am always looking for things.

    I will continue to monitor the HRRR along with the others.

    I will say one thing. This certainly is interesting and a challenge.
    I would NOT want to be putting out a public forecast. That’s for sure!!

    1. Sorry, I reversed the 2 surface maps. The 2nd one is the earlier one and the
      1st one is the later one. They are there, just reversed.

  18. Sometimes it’s just simply more important to observe the current state of the atmosphere instead of turning a blind eye to that and waiting for a computer to give you the answer. Many in the field of meteorology make this error frequently.

  19. I finally made it to the comment rather than reply box.

    Thank you, TK, for your continued blogs and expertise.

    1. I did get that info from a guy on twitter who has a picture of Loyd Christmas as his profile picture.

    2. Indeed.

      This is what makes up the SREF:

      The SPC Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) is constructed by post-processing all 21 members of the NCEP SREF plus the 3-hour time lagged, operational NAM (for a total of 22 members) each 6 hours (03, 09, 15, and 21 UTC).

      22 members and we are seeing the mean and it is ROBUST for snow here.

      Is this to be totally and completely discounted?

      I dunno. Gives one reason to pause at least.

      I posted the 3Z run earlier. The 9Z run is just about to the correct frame.

      Will post shortly.

  24. It looks to me as if the 12Z NAM has shifted back a bit to the South. Still running, so
    not totally sure.

      2. That would mean the NAM caught on and it would mean
        we are zeroing in on the GFS/Euro blend or so it seems.

            1. WHOOPS

              What is going on. It took a turn due
              North and threw heavier precip back towards Boston.

              what an ENIGMA!!!!!

              This is FUN

              2. *!@&#*YWEH(GWE(HQWEQW(IEJ(QWEQWYE*(!()@&*(#^&*#^*(!&@U*#()&!)#*)@(#)!*@(#)(!@#*

                It’s not done and puts boston
                in the 14-16 inch zone with more to come!

                Here is where TK comes in and says it is suffering from Convective feed back, Poor initialization and another
                KABOOM run. 😆 😆 😆 😆

  25. The NAM is out of its mind. It is calling for 4 Feet of snow in parts of W. VA, MD and PA. YIKES!!!! Cut it in half and that’s still 2 foot totals.

      1. yes, but the NWS has duly taken notice. They are clearly
        concerned something is up, even if those snow totals
        in the mid-atlantic are nuts.

  26. NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 16s17 seconds ago

    [12z NAM] is still quite robust w/ heavy snow in Southern half of SNE. However need 2 evaluate all new guid b4 any forecast changes.

    1. They have taken notice that’s for sure.

      Translation: They are not changing a thing UNLESS the GFS and/or the EURO
      comes in more robust.

      1. The closer we get, the less helpful the GFS and EURO will become. We will be forced to look at trends within the short range high res model outputs.

  30. NAM is doing PEDs. Discount totals. Well, cut in half at least. However, the reach of the precipitation shield should not be discounted.

  32. This is how the NWS is handling it for now:

    THIS WEEKEND…STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING ARE LIKELY ACROSS
    PORTIONS OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

    THERE IS ALSO A RISK FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
    GREATEST THREAT OVER RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.
    IF THE STORM TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE
    POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH. CONVERSELY IF THE STORM TRACKS FARTHER
    OFFSHORE THE THREAT OF HEAVY SNOW WILL DIMINISH. THE ULTIMATE
    EFFECTS WILL DEPEND UPON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.

    STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS POTENTIAL WINTER
    STORM.

  34. I haven’t changed my mind 1 bit.

    I’m going to sink or swim based on the formula in this particular scenario.

    (80% experience/recollection of what happened with similar type storms) + (10% instinct) + (10% models)

    And in this case, if the models are ever correct, I’ll sink.

    But the other 90% of the formula make me think the models are out to lunch.

    1. I gave not been able to read everything Tom. Are you think we have more or less? I have the impression less but just not sure. Thanks. And you opinion carries a lot of weight….sink or swim 🙂

      2. It’s like knowing a movie you want to see opens in 2 weeks and having to wait for the 2 weeks and it feels like it’s been 3 months. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    3. Thank you Tom for the experience that you bring here as I always value what you have to say . You have a good record in my view of things so we now sit and wait. I will be in Boston out in the field whether it’s s dusting or two inches . Would not want to be forecasting this storm for sure.

    1. I am as well. Trying to decide whether to serve tea or wine…….that is my roller coaster. Although one is a heavy favorite.

  37. No change for me either although I’m inclined to think that chances of Boston seeing zero snow is remote.

  38. Definitely a spill your coffee NAM run.

    Started out decent but then became a lost puppy

    Another thing, models had the 500mb low closing off way too fast, perhaps an underestimation of the progressive pattern.

    1. That’s 3 in a row though…..whatever the case the patterns is causing issues with the models. TK or anyone else know when we had a split flow pattern like this. In the 5 or so years following this and the BZ blog, I don’t ever remember mention of it

      1. It has happened periodically as always and we’ve seen the NAM blow up with it accordingly.

        Trying to forecast these types of storms with this model is like accidentally adding a half cup of magnesium to your boiling water when the recipe called for salt.

        2. Wonderful comparison. Thanks TK I can see why the on air mets are having trouble and honestly I feel for them.

  39. So are we discounting these short range model solutions bc they don’t make sense given the overall pattern, set-up, etc., or just bc they’re different from the consensus of this week? If it’s the former I can wrap my head around it, but if its the latter, I think we’re being a bit naive.

  40. I cant do this here at school ….

    If anyone is interested …

    How have snow accumulations verified so far ?

    I know a lot of the storm hasn’t been in the cold air yet, but if I recall, many of the models had some snow fall under the upper low in Arkansas, very northeast Texas, etc ?

    How are the models verifying so far ??

    1. Not well. I just saw Eric Fisher retweet something interesting from a met in Arkansas. Last night’s 0Z NAM had 6″ of snow for that part of Arkansas. So far, only flurries.

  41. I think we just need to watch the radar and see how things are playing out now then we can see what the trend maybe. I agree Tom how are things panning out so far?

  42. If the majority of the guidance is correct, Eric Fisher’s xmas tree might stay up for at least another month if longer (tree won’t come down until Boston gets a real storm)

      1. Me too! A friend of mine has a xmas tree burning party every year the weekend after new years. Those things burn in seconds!

        2. My brother had one every year as well, Ace. He invited the neighbors. Only thing that worried me was that he had it in the woods behind his house. Yikes.

          1. Oh gosh, behind the house?!? The trees are so dry and burn so hot. We do it in a huge quarry right off 495 in Hopkinton. So much fun!

    1. Agreed re: talking about this storm for a month. I think there’s been so much attention being paid bc, i dont know about you, but i feel like this was our best chance for a big storm all winter. Its tough to let it go without a fight, lol.

      1. Absolutely.

        I can remember other situations where all the models said no
        and the NAM hung onto to snow. Of course, the NAM lost out.
        I presume that will be the case with this.

        We shall see. Will continue to monitor all.

  48. Thanks tk as always!!! Again glad we are missing this, and the mid Atlantic is getting the storm. Watching the news, they have news anchors lined up from Charlotte to New York City. forecast I’ve seen have Boston in the 1 inch area, and Providence in the 2-3 inch area, then more coastal ri and coastal ct. We have a busy weekend not only getting ready for the Patriots game, but entertaining Sat evening and Sunday. 🙂

    1. I wouldn’t call it a miss. A miss is when you get zero. 🙂

      We’re being hit by the northern edge.

      2. Yeah well considering the brunt is receiving 2 ft, and we are receiving 2 inches, I consider it a miss. 🙂

        1. “We’re receiving 2 inches”.
          Who are “we”? You can’t generalize when the cutoff is that sharp.

  49. For 3 straight runs now of the GFS (4 pending completion of the 12Z run), other than this weekend’s “snow” in boston, there is zero predicted snowfall out to 384 hrs. I know this might change, but if it holds, that brings us into mid-Feb with possibly smashing the record low seasonal snowfall total. It would fitting if we break the all time record high snowfall and record low snowfall totals in consecutive years.

    1. Possibility. Sort of like the Red Sox: Win it all or come in last.

      It’s also exceptionally dry. TK has mentioned this many times. We’re in a very dry period that’s lasted a long time. I’m concerned about brush fires in March and April.

    1. They are not factoring in the Hi Res models into their most likely forecast, but
      they sure as hell are factoring them in for the Maximum potential map.

      Tells me that they are at least somewhat worried that the Hi-Res models
      might be onto something here. Something to monitor, that’s for sure. 😀

      1. It’s a clear indication of just how misleading this guidance can be just as it can be helpful other times. The key is knowing which applies here.

        1. The 250 mb level certainly influences how the 500 mb
          features move? No?
          The precip generally follows the 500mb flow? no?

          Thanks

  52. I have been checking the forums on Accuweather. In D.C. and points south snow is showing up on radar, but not hitting the ground. So even down there they are having to overcome the dry air.

      1. TK do you think those high amounts in DC will materialize? Not sure if you are following it as closely as here.

  54. Just went to supermarket, thankfully no one is freaking out and buying all the milk and bread, the wonder bread guy said they are out of bread in DC.

    1. Massachusetts has sent many many trucks and plows to the mid Atlantic per wbz for help of removing there snow.

              1. That’s funny that’s the 1st thing you think of, probably Massachusetts, they also said that Massachusetts wouldn’t have been able to get through last winter without all of there help. At this time to help them I’ll chip in 2 bucks for crying out loud lol

        1. My all time favorite band. My wife and I last song at our wedding was Amazing by Aerosmith, it was amazing! 🙂

      1. 1 inch or less and at this point I do not even think they see that. Not my final call but been sticking with it for about 2 days now.

            2. first part of the week yes, but there is a chance of a storm late next week shown on canadian. GFS has it split with one low going way south and a clipper. Clipper gives us a little bit of snow. coming from northwest. EURo has a low to the south as well and could be pushed north.. very well could just miss us but its a chance.

  56. Tim Kelley NECN ‏@SurfSkiWxMan 5m5 minutes ago

    Tim Kelley NECN Retweeted Philip D

    yes coastal front, pretty close to coast, like route 3A Plymouth to Hingham.. going on the record, 10″+ in that lane

    1. NCEP’s short range guidance is just terrible with this storm for some reason. It’s not always this bad, but for whatever reason can’t handle this one. GFS doing well at least.

      Also of note, Environment Canada’s short range guidance, the RGEM and their even better 2.5km model, are not having the problems the US models are having and are more in line with the globals.

  61. Again, a great read. I like your comment, Ace, that we are thinking this may be our chance so we are hanging on. I suspect quite true. And if we don’t get a storm, the discussion and education are great.

    I agree with Charlie….we should send as much as possible south. Other areas helped us – not only last year but the October storm and some totally unrelated to snow in the past handful of years.

    I just returned from the grocery store (Sudbury Farms). It was packed. I talked to the manager a bit. He hasn’t seen any indication of the weather prompting the crowd….more preparing for the game Sunday. They expect tomorrow to be very busy. I wonder if the grocery store in Wellesley mentioned earlier was for the same reason.

  62. I hate to be a wet blanket, but the latest GFS and Euro guidance appear to suggest Boston and points north will get very little if any snow. I realize the Euro indicates 2-3 inches, but there’s some very dry air that will be chomping away. I don’t know if the model properly accounts for that. I have my doubts whether much snow actually reaches the ground in the Boston area. Different story to our south, obviously. However, even there it appears that dry air is impacting the snow. Best bet for accumulating snow in New England is parts of RI and CT.

  63. Coastal, thanks for the tip on Tim Kelley. Just read his tweets and yes indeed
    he said that. 10+ for the Plymouth to Hingham areas of the South Shore.

    He’s the first Met to suggest more snow anywhere in the area.

  64. the ensembles of the gfs is further north than the operational…. we shall see tonight. One group will go to the other

    1. While the (subtle) more northern trajectory is true, take a look at what is happening in Baltimore at the moment. From radar it would appear that it’s been snowing there for a while, but it’s merely cloudy. Snow is not reaching the ground. It will of course reach the ground soon. But, I here in New England I expect the northern edge of this storm (40-60 miles) to yield almost nothing on the ground as it will encounter very dry air.

      2. Charles Orloff ‏@charlesorloff 2m2 minutes ago

        @SurfSkiWxMan @NeWeathereye Bob Copeland’s thoughts- 6-8″ Bos/ Suburbs. 12-18″ Cape & Is. High winds drifting

  65. I know we are all looking at the various models and scientific info, but I did something more powerful to get the snow up here……I washed the car!!!!

    And TK, your explanations are amazing.

    And who is the guy on Ch7 who was showing a coastal front setting up? How is that supposed to happen?

  67. I was about to post and was interrupted.

    RE: DRY SLOT

    What we are seeing is the beginning of the transfer of energy to a coastal
    redevelopment.

    1. DT was adamant this was miller A and there would be no transfer to another low. He actually ridiculed commenters for suggesting it was miller B

        1. That’s why I feel until the transfer is complete, that’s when we should drive the nail in the coffin. Too many weird things can go wrong.

          1. Coastal is predicted to head almost N then NNE
            and come out right on the VA coast.

            What it does from there is key. East and OTS
            Or NE and Whammo? Odds favor East.

            We shall see IF there are any surprises.

            BTW are ALL of the mesoscale models corrupt?
            Do they all have the NAM as the main engine?
            ??????????????????????????????????????????

            15Z SERF cooking and coming out.

            1. Eyeballing the current radar and satellite loops, it appears it wants to pop further north and west than modeled.

      2. What did I miss? What is a Miller A and Miller B. I’m assuming not a Miller High Life.

        Thanks in advance!

        1. Miller A is a storm that usually develops in the Gulf, but it could move into the Gulf, say from Colorado or so.
          Anyway, a Miller A just moves up the coast WITHOUT
          a coastal re-development

          Miller A is a storm that usually moves towards the Appalachians (ie Ohio River Valley or there abouts)
          and then the energy skips over the mountains and
          redevlops the system as a coastal, either just inland from the coast, on the coast or just off shore. And the coastal is what moves up the coast and gets us.
          Often a precipitation shadow between the systems
          as the energy is transferred.

  68. Question – why would people buy milk (I know it’s kind of a joke people say when a big snowstorm is coming; or maybe they do) because the lights could go out and the milk would go bad? Stupid question, I know. Just wondering.

    1. Never understood it either…guessing it’s a holdback from the “old days” of farming. How can anyone not have enough food for a day or two anyone? Even if you didn’t you can not eat easily for that timeframe.

    2. Just saw a tweet saying there are many many bad models, and said NYC might not even receive a foot, after many though 12-18 just a couple days ago.

          2. I’d like to know the name of the sender. If you saw it on Twitter it will still be there. Retrieve for me please? Thanks!

  72. Charles Orloff ‏@charlesorloff 2m2 minutes ago

    @SurfSkiWxMan @NeWeathereye Bob Copeland’s thoughts- 6-8″ Bos/ Suburbs. 12-18″ Cape & Is. High winds drifting

    1. IS that the Bob Copeland? If so, he is excellent and I mean excellent.

      Thanks for this one.

      Second MET on board for snow.

      1. I’m on board for snow. I’m just on board for a more reasonable forecast given the information and the conditions. 🙂

      2. Why would you think it is funny, Charlie?

        I’ll asking again. Why do you laugh after most of your comments? I know you have replaced the smiley face with the newest visual but please explain why everything is funny.

  73. Wbz is saying 1-2 inches Boston, nothing or very little north and west. 2-4 south shore, mixing Plymouth southward to cape. 3-5 coastal ct coastal ri

    1. Nice loop. There’s a lot of dry air getting pumped into this thing from the south. Might mess up some of those “historic” snowfall projections.

      1. But we have the whole Atlantic throwing moisture into it
        as it moves up the coast. Does it dump it on us or the fish?
        That is the question?

        Most experts say the fish. A few say at least some is dumped on
        us.

    2. Any steady snow gets in shortly after sunset and is gone by sunrise, if not before, regarding Boston.

  81. Tweet from Terry Eliasen:

    NEW: @NWSBoston about to issue a Blizzard Warning for Block Island and Martha’s Vineyard, Winter Storm Warning for South Coast

    1. Thanks Sue. Interesting. The Winter Storm Warning would indicate NWS expects at least 6″ there. Doesn’t match up with latest global models…

    1. Very sharp cutoff north of Providence to Hartford. It’s the crappy 18z nam so it’s most likely wrong, like Joshua has said the leading 50-75 miles is going to be evaporating. We shall see jj

      1. A little, but it still is suffering some nasty convective feedback. It’s just a little less swelled up this time.

  83. Oooo Copeland going 6-8? I need to change my forecast…
    NOT!

    With all due respect, and believe me, he’s due a lot of respect, I’m not changing anything at this time.

      1. Combination of wind and falling and/or blowing snow that reduces visibility. It also has to occur for a certain amount of time. Once upon a time there were 2 different levels of blizzard based on temperatures. Under 20 for a blizzard. Under 10 for a severe blizzard. The temperatures are no longer considered a factor.

      1. Not really. They are playing it safe because of the sharp gradient in snow. It builds up really fast as you head south. Merely 20 to 30 mile difference in track will mean the difference between 3 inches and a foot in some locations down there. I’d issue the warning too.

    1. Nam, GFS and Canadian showed the coastal redeveloping that far south and hugging the coast till it transfers again to another

      1. Most models were showing the coastal forming that far north and traveling up the east coast, then heading east at some point off the Virginia/Maryland coast

    1. Yup watching this thing fly out underneath of us…The nam is catching on only about an inch in Boston is my prediction.

  90. I’ll post a thank you here since there are so many comments after yours, JPD.

    Thank you for the explanation re Miller A and B. I figured out quickly the second was B.

    Did my mind blank or is this the first time I’ve heard those names. Is there a reason for Miller A and B??

    Rainshine, re milk. I think it began after blizzard of 1978. I do not recall ever hearing a run on food stores pre-storm until then. We had not lost power for days and been unable to get to grocery stores unless we could walk to one prior to that storm. In the winter, milk is fine. Just put it outside. Summer is a bit more challenging.

    3. Our cat acts as strangely as possible all the time – there is nothing left to signify weather conditions!

  92. How much dim sunshine will Boston area see tomorrow ?

    I am not asking that sarcastically. All the real thick storm clouds are likely to be out at sea. Maybe lower clouds will still obscure the sun.

  93. Squirrels in the Public Garden were acting normal this morning. No unusual hoarding of nuts or frenetic activity. I think they’re clued in to the Euro model. One of the squirrels speaks with a German accent, so definitely a Euro model follower. Of course, the squirrels I observed were not hiding in their nests. The others – the NAM and SREF loyalists – are probably a bit more cautious, waiting it out in their warm abodes inside the oak trees.

    1. Totally unrelated but we saw a black squirrel in ashland the other day. They are plentiful in western part of state. But not here

  94. OK, the turnabout has happened. The NAM has made a correction.

    WOW want a sharp cutoff!!!!!!

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016012218&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=060

    Now I am confused more than ever. The NAM goes South, while the GFS comes North!
    A meeting of the minds? Zeroing in on a real solution perhaps.

    GFS snowmap

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016012218&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=045

    2. The GFS didn’t come north all that much. It tightened the gradient which would be expected closer to the event.

      NAM was a complete mess due to massive convective feedback. I knew last night at 00z that model was a complete disaster. I’m surprised Harvey reacted to it so quickly. Every met I talk to behind the scenes (and there are quite a few) immediately questioned the validity of the NAM when it did the big switcheroo.

  95. RGEM looks to be doing a good job showing how the precip will struggle to push north. RAP and HRRR, just getting into their ranges for us, also look to be doing well. Steady/heavy stuff gets to about NYC, then hits a brick wall around 12z tomorrow, with a very slow northward progression of the outer fringes from there. My guess is 1″ for Boston. Tricky spot is down around Providence. I’m leaning on the lower side with 3″ for them, but a slight jog north could near double that.

    1. One of the teenager-run weather pages just cannot resist. He saw one model edge a bit north and “join the NAM” (guess he didn’t see the 18z) and is pulling out all the stops.

      He’s certain the storm gets to 40/70 and that automatically means big snow for all of the Northeast. Try again. 40/70 is actually quite overrated and only works for about 60% of cases, and this won’t be one of them because it’s not happening.

  96. NWS significantly altered their “maximum” accumulation map on the most recent update. Much more reasonable, even though they don’t need it.

    I think this event lands somewhere between “minimum” and “most likely” but closer to “most likely”.

    1. The one thing I think the GFS is signaling that is very accurate, look at the tail off of amounts as you head east in southernmost New England. Another big overall red flag for eastern Mass. Storm maximizes south and west of us, not really deepening as they usually do as it passes us by.

      1. Another excellent observation.
        They’re not ALWAYS bombing out when they go by us. Sometimes they have peaked out and need to basically be reborn over the North Atlantic before they get stronger again. This is not a classic case. This is a split flow, cutting-off yet still progressive, early-maturing, etc. system.

      1. Tom what I want to see tomorrow is if the heavier band of snow forecasted to be on Long Island NYC moves north in CT. If that happens latest run of the GFS will verify here in CT.
        Were more on the edge than you are up there and if a slight shift north will make a big difference likewise slight shift south far less snow.

  100. Boston south Is still in it . Everything points to 6+ down my way pembroke, Marshfield, Hanover and south through Plymouth and the cape . Boston is like sitting on a ledge with heavy precipitation probably will achieve at least a couple of inches. I’ve never seen Harvey look so confused in my opinion . I think after writing this thing off there may be surprises here just my opinion opinion.

      1. On this one Vicki I think he is just confused as he says one thing than 30 minutes later it’s something else. Even tk had said he was kind of surprised with him last night. I will say I love Harvey and I do not envy any met who needs to forecast this .

  101. So…I know it’s wishful thinking, but what if any surprises could there be that would yield more snow other than tracking further north?

  102. In order to get anything out of this storm, you’re going to need some serious snow growth at around 20,000 feet. Below that exists very poor crystal growth as a result of very dry air this is currently present.

    Saturday afternoon is our best shot when the best 500mb omega passes overhead. Once that is removed, snow is done. I think it truly is a one shot deal before the column begins drying out later Saturday evening when winds back and dry air floods.

    With such a short window of snow which will spend a lot of time saturating the column, those max amounts put out by Taunton make good sense. I am uncertain on how far north the strong omega reaches, how long it sticks around, and how it will interact with the existing subsidence inversion. In any case snow is done in Boston by Midnight Saturday.

    1. Thanks for posting, JP Dave. This map suggests Tom, Sue, and other South Shore dwellers will be our jackpot winners.

  105. Some obs from down in the mid-Atlantic :

    Annapolis, MD : Moderate snow, 23F, Visibility of 1/2 mile

    Raleigh Durham, NC : 30F, freezing drizzle, NE wind at 18, gusting to 32

    1. Cape Hatteras, in the warm sector is 57F with a SE wind.

      We had a great time in the Outer Banks, btwn the rain falling and the wind with the full moon tides, it must be quite a scene down there.

  106. 18z runs of the American models showing more snow in CT than link you just posted.
    Its going to be fun watching the radar tomorrow.

    1. I think many north of providence to Hartford will be disappointed. As much as snow lovers are searching for ways to get this up here, it’s a mid Atlantic storm. Snow shield won’t make it past the mass pike, and the real accumulating snow won’t make it past providence to Hartford.

  107. From Taunton NWS office:

    THIS AS FLOW BECOMES
    INCREASINGLY NE ACROSS ABOVE- AVERAGE SEA- SURFACE- TEMPERATURES
    INTRODUCING THE LIKELIHOOD OF OCEAN- EFFECT ENHANCEMENT.

  108. GFS Liquid vs GFS ensemble (GEFS)
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=eus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2016012218&fh=48&xpos=0&ypos=193
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=eus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2016012218&fh=48&xpos=0&ypos=193

    Ensemble has .5 to just south of boston.
    GFS much further south to the canal.

    Canadian. vs GEPS
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=eus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2016012212&fh=54&xpos=0&ypos=193

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens&region=eus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2016012212&fh=54&xpos=0&ypos=193

    Canadian barely makes the .5 to the cape and islands. The GEPS on the other hand sends the .5 (blue line) all the way up to Boston.

    JMA
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=jma&region=eus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2016012212&fh=54&xpos=0&ypos=193

    The 12k nam 18z
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2016012218&fh=42&xpos=0&ypos=464
    the .5 liquid goes almost up to Boston.
    Nam 4k 18z
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam4km&region=neus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2016012218&fh=42&xpos=0&ypos=90
    .5 line further up to the mass pike
    wrf-ARw
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=wrf-arw&region=neus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2016012212&fh=48&xpos=0&ypos=90
    way over done. furthest extent with the .5 making its way all the way up to the NH boarder with the 1.75 inch up to boston.
    WRF-NMM
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=wrf-nmm&region=neus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2016012212&fh=48&xpos=0&ypos=393

    further south than the WRF-ARW but the .5 line makes its way to Boston.

    RGEM
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem&region=neus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2016012218&fh=42&xpos=0&ypos=115
    further south . 5 line does not even make it to the south coast.

    still looks to all go south but could mean My totals on my blog are a bit low for areas south. will update the maps later tonight/tomorrow morning

  109. Are we seeing heavy snow anywhere in the mid-Atlantic this evening? I’ve seen obs pointing to light and moderate, as well as some further south saying freezing rain. Surprising to me that we’re not seeing heavier snow in the DC and Baltimore area. The meat for them is tonight (overnight), and not tomorrow.

      1. I’m not impressed thus far, either. I’m surprised at how disorganized it has appeared this afternoon and even appears right now. I’m sure TK will correct me on this, but on radar it doesn’t look like, say, `Nemo’ or some of the other classic nor’easters.

        Even sensationalist weather.com has as its highest snow total 18 inches in the mountains of North Carolina where it’s essentially winding down.

        I’ve been wrong many times, but I have serious doubts about this storm bringing more than, say, 15 inches to either DC or Baltimore. We shall see.

        1. It’s definitely not a “classic” but it’ll get cranking down there. It evolves overnight and peaks there tomorrow.

    2. I saw a report of HEAVY SNOW in DC, but most reports I have seen
      were of light snow, vis about 1.25 miles. Not the making of a monster.
      Perhaps the transfer of energy is not complete and it is a bit of a lull.
      Don’t know for sure.

      1. Light right now. Heavier to the southeast of DC. This could be the transfer of energy part and we’ll see heavy amounts later tonight.

  110. JJ, I think you’ll be our jackpot winner. That is, among WHW posters. Haven’t heard from Mark in a while. He’s in Ct. , too, I believe.

  111. Ok, at the risk of being shot down big time, I present the HRRR Ezxperimental
    one hour snow fall for the period ending 5PM tomorrow.

    It has boston on the line of 1-2 inches per hour. Looking at this chart
    it looks like the HRRR wants to bring the heavier precip to Boston at least for a time.

    Someone said that the HRRR was handling this well. I really don’t know.
    I also thought that the engine for the HRRR, although high resolution, was similar
    to the GFS??? I am not sure of this. I do, however, believe that its engine is
    a different animal than the NAM or the WRF products. Again, not certain.

    Comments?

      1. I’ll be honest Dave, I would take the hrrr, it is wrong wayyyyy more than its right IMO, idk I don’t believe it, the euro is king

    2. So many times I’ve heard you say it’s junk just in the last month, it’s way off, maybe tk can chime in

      1. Indeed. My brother in Baltimore said that for hours the radar indicated it was snowing there, but none of it reached the ground. It’s reaching the ground now, but the snow is only light to moderate.

        1. Couple friends in Mariotta about 30 miles north of Atlanta, he told me at about 5pm everyone is hunkered down, and staying in. They wait till it all melts before things get back to normal. (Almost like Boston) lol kidding 🙂

      1. no not really what is happening is that the energy transfers again to another area of low pressure

  116. Vicki, you mentioned a black squirrel, there’s an albino squirrel in my neighborhood, and a black squirrel. For a common animal, the gray, black, and albino squirrels attract a lot of attention from foreign visitors to Boston. Squirrels are fairly rare in Europe, for example. And, you hardly ever seem them in urban settings. The UK is an exception in this regard. I did see them in Regent’s Park, London.

    1. Interesting, Joshua. Daughter in Uxbridge doesn’t have squirrels at all which I find really odd. Her girls get all excited when they visit and see them here. I offer to send some home with them;)

    1. Depends on where you are. The further south you are the earlier it starts and the later it ends.

  120. Joshua you may be correct. I may end up with the most snow to anyone who contributes to this great blog. Mark lives in Manchester, CT. I have not seen him post since late last June.
    The winners for CT look to be the southwestern part of CT with this one. Saw the RAP model goes bonkers with 18-24 inches just south of CT in Long Island and NYC.
    Were on a very fine line here.

  121. We have a handful of new people reading the blog as of today. Some of them may post eventually, but for now they are observing.

    Hi to all of you!

    2. 4 to 5pm i think if they have any but it looks like it is a better chance for boston to have some flurries/snow showers

            1. Matt and I don’t usually see eye to eye but I am with him on this on. Could be dead wrong but if we are right it would be easier for you, no?

                1. the only way I see boston it self seeing accumulating snowfall at this moment is if the ocean gets involved with the northeast wind. and even then no more than 1 inch.

  124. Hi , I read this site every time its snows for the best storm info. I also follow nws and that’s about it. Thank you for all the info

  126. I’m seeing some posts about start time here. I have a friend running a race in Framingham tomorrow. I believe it starts at noon and is a 5K so won’t run long

  127. Hi All. Exciting time on the blog tonight! Who’s going to win out? Northern dry air or southern moisture monster?

    1. Sorry jj, love ya on the blog, but don’t consider you Boston area/sunurbs, or far flung suburbs. More like far flung southern Albany suburbs. 🙂

        1. 🙂 with a storm like this, a sharp gradient. You could receive 4-6 inches, and the rest of whw blog area get little to nothing

  130. Doesn’t look like much for Boston to Worcester on that run. Thank the good lord Boston misses it, or 97.5% missed it. 🙂

  132. I said this early Charlie were more on the edge here in CT particularly the shoreline of CT than you are. The heavier amounts of snow are just south of us.

  133. https://merrimackvalleyweather.wordpress.com
    The only changed from earlier is that I added a slither of grey that is for some flurries(far very light snow possibly. ) Also a chance of some snow showers the east coast which could give up to 1 inch in the city of boston. the 0-2 expect the lower ends north higher end west and eastern sections lesser amounts in the middle.

  134. Hmmm

    After digesting all, including the latest RGEM, HRRR along with the NAM,CMC and GFS, it looks like about 2-4 inches for Boston. LEss N&W and more S&E. We shall see how it
    plays out.

    HRRR looks to be a bit robust. Everyone seems to be downplaying that model.

    The RGEM is the most robust of the regular “trusted” models with about
    5 inches for Boston. GFS has the least at about 2.5 inches.

    Tomorrow should be fun. We’ll see just how far North the Snow comes and for how
    long.

    Eric said 1-3 inches for Boston and 3-6 to the South. Eric is the only one
    my wife will listen to. 😀

      1. And what’s wrong with the RGEM? That’s the only Mesoscale
        that I said was trusted. I said I looked at the NAM, didn’t say
        I trusted it. I looked at the HRRR. Don’t ever know what
        to make of that.

          1. Earlier you liked the RGEM and now you don’t??

            Even if you look at the GFS and EURO, we get something. We have something to watch regardless. Sure it might not be a lot, but it
            looks like something UNLESS the combo of dry air and Northern Stream just eat the living shit out
            of the Northern fringe of the storm

            1. I never said we get nothing. RGEM was better before. For some reason it seems a bit juiced now. With the edge as sharp as it is, can go either way.

  138. Sorry for the late reply Jp Dave, Ragdoll is the name of my boat . I do like all types of
    music though. heading to camp squanto in Plymouth for the Klondike derby with the Boy Scouts. They are expecting 500 people. Should be fun

  140. I,m not up yet. Just took a peek
    With my phone. Overnight things
    Have gotten more interesting.
    Even gfs and euro have more
    Snow for boston. Like 3-6 inches.

    At least wwa should be extended
    To boston.

    Later….

  141. Snow not reaching the ground where I am. Its is reaching the ground on the shoreline where a blizzard warning is in effect.
    The storm has been named Anna here in CT by our CBS station since 6 plus inches will fall in a lot of the state. The theme this year for names former first ladies. The B name is Barbara which is my mom’s name. So my mom may have a winter storm named after her this winter season.

    2. It’s not even snowing where you are yet JJ ?

      Oh my …. I hope it starts up soon for you ……..:.: I just think this is telling to the struggle the precip will endure to move much further north.

  144. Dry air is mauling the northern part of the precip shield. Amounts should not have been upped north of the CT/RI border. Just as I suspected last night: heavy stuff gets to NYC, then stonewalled by 12z. My 1″ prediction for Boston holds. I’ll bump it slightly to 4″ in Providence. Amounts may be too low right on the South Coast and the Cape though. Maybe an 8-12″ band there.

    2. I think the dry air issues have been well documented and accounted for in the local snow totals. Snow not expected until 1 – 3 time frame. If the snow still is not reaching the ground after that time period then I would think totals should be lowered.

  146. Still thinking …..

    Boston 0-1 (closer to 0)

    Plymouth, MA : 1, maybe 2 (siding closer to 1)

    In my opinion, the contours in snowfall accumulation should not be due west to east in southernmost New Emgland, I think they should be oriented more WNW to ESE, as the best snow accumulations are in southwestern most New England.

  148. I am not seeing any snow flakes but the wind gusts are picking up where I am.
    Tom the snow is starting to fall as close by as Monroe which is 25 minutes south of me.

    1. That’s close, remember it’s gonna take a few hours after the 1st flakes to start accumulating.

      1. Southwestern CT looks to be the winners here Charlie.
        6-10 forecasted for my area which is not bad for being on the fringe.

  149. Good morning, that snow shield is hitting a wall. Judging by radar last night on most of these type storms, it would have been snowing by now. Also it doesn’t look impressive at all IMO. Also just heard this will all wrap up around or just before midnight tonight? This is looking and feeling like mostly a miss.

  151. Good morning all!

    I’m updating now…
    The idea of leaning toward the upper end of the ranges to the south and the lower end of the ranges to the north holds. I may tweak a number here and there but otherwise so far it looks like things are generally on track. I’m coming off a few hour nap so I have to just look at a few things to catch up…

      1. Perhaps. But I don’t think that may be a big factor. Not favorable for making snow form in the low levels. Just too dry.

    1. Overall, I think Taunton is doing a great, great job !! They have one heck of a responsibility and I think they do it exceptionally well !!!!!!

      If there is one thing I’d like to see them improve on, it would be to stop changing their projected snowfall amounts every 3 hrs. I get why they might be doing that in this scenario, but I can’t imagine it inspires confidence in the general public.

      I am pretty sure there were adjustments made yesterday around 6am, 10am, 1pm, 4pm and 7pm and I just stopped tallying after that.

      1. Agree 100% on this storm. Actually, I’d prefer the frequent updates. It shows me they are on top of things. On the other
        hand, your general public statement makes sense as well.

        Overall, I’d prefer the frequent updates to OLD information. 😀

        Let’s see if they are correct. I think they put out a fairly reasonable snow map, considering all of the model information available. I think though they generally went with a GFS/EURO/NAM blend. Yes I said NAM as they seem to
        have some confidence in the latest NAM runs.

      1. Understood. Just hoping that wall is at least somewhat North
        of Boston. I don’t care how far as long as it is North. 😀

    2. You may ever see more flakes than we have here on the blog…
      JUST KIDDING! 😀 😀 😀 😀

  155. Now can there be a just a tad shift north to get the heavier snow bands to push further inland. Especially in southern part of CT and NYC area were seeing in the accumulation forecasts what a difference a slight shift north makes.

      1. Will see Tom. For those who say a slight shift doesn’t make a difference it does and were seeing with accumulation forecasts going up for southern half of state.

  157. Boston 31
    Lowell 21
    Worcester 19

    I sense a coastal front…will this increase accumulation for Boston?

      1. It may actually appear over the interior by some # of miles…
        Will include that in my discussion.

    2. There will be a bit of one that may trigger a band of snow showers unrelated to the precipitation field of the storm, though it will probably be very light. Thinking somewhere within several miles of 128/95 in the area northwest of Boston for the most likely set-up, and it may waver around a bit before dissipating.

  160. I was about to make a sensational post regarding some HRRR output.
    But ALAS, it was for the 9Z run. 11Z run Backed off, so NEVER MIND. 😀

    HRRR now seems to be in line with the Globals. The operational HRRR only goes out
    15 hours, ending 9PM tonight, so any totals might not be complete.

    As of 9PM, it has Boston in the 2-3 inch zone. Pretty consistent with others.
    An eralier run of the experimental HRRR goes out 24 hours and had Boston
    in the 4-6 inch zone.

    Still monitoring. 12Z NAM will be out soon. Interested to see IF it shows any change.
    not likely, but will look at it anyway.

    1. I think this one seems to be handling it the best compared to the others . Right in line with my thinking though they have Boston up to 3 I’m thinking 4 and also heavier bands tonight vs this afternoon .

  165. Good morning. Looks like snow

    Kentucky state police reported 35 mile back up 75S due to storm

    I am sure that is one of many problems south of here

    JJ. Any accumulation?

  167. Morning

    All New York City locations reporting heavy snow so it did verify there. We shall what happens today here.

  172. I think this storm was overhyped and continues to be, especially in the mid-Atlantic region. For example, the wind in DC, Baltimore, and Philadelphia, didn’t pan out, at least from what I’ve been seeing. Was it a snowstorm? Yes. A fairly large one for DC? Yes. But, it didn’t even come close to being `historic.’ I don’t have a trained eye, so please correct me on this. But, what I was seeing on the maps yesterday – I viewed quite a few – was a large amoeba-like storm, checkered in terms of output, encountering a lot of dry air, plenty of dry slots, and not enough `umph’ (the inch or 2 per hour stuff – when the heavens just start puking). It appears NYC may be the jackpot winner after all. They were gypped last year, as we recall. There, the `umph’ has verified and perhaps over-performed.

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