Saturday Forecast

634 Comments

8:56AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 23-27)…
Storm update! What to expect in southern New England…
WHEN: Today and tonight (except Sunday morning as well regarding tide impact).
SNOW START TIME: Already underway southwestern CT, remainder of South Coast of CT to Cape Cod mid to late morning, however by late morning a few snow showers unrelated to the storm are possible from near Boston to the North Shore and northwest Suburbs, otherwise the storm-related snow should reach northeastern CT, northern RI, and south central MA during the early afternoon and its furthest extend northward into MA to near the NH border during mid to late afternoon.
SNOW END TIME: From northwest to southeast generally between 8PM and 3AM, that is, firstly in the areas it reached the latest, and lastly around Cape Cod and the Islands closer to 3AM. This means areas near the South Coast snow the longest while areas northwest of Boston snow lesser time.
SNOW INTENSITY: Moderate snow as a general rule across most areas from Boston along the Mass Pike and southward, but a band of heavier snow will push into the South Coast of MA, RI, and CT. Light to very light snow as you head north and northwest toward the MA/NH border.
SNOW ACCUMULATION: Nothing or flakes in the air briefly in southern NH, dusting to 1 inch north central and northeastern MA, 1-3 inches from near Boston west southwestward along the Mass Pike belt and just to the north, 3-6 inches from just south of Boston down into much of southeastern MA to northern RI and northeastern CT, 6-10 inches southeastern CT and southern RI and the immediate South Coast of MA including the southern part of Cape Cod and the island of Martha’s Vineyard. Exceptions will be southwestern CT where over 10 inches will fall, Nantucket where an intense snow band may result in over 12 inches, and the eastern part of Cape Cod where slightly lighter precipitation and a possible mix may limit snow to 2-4 inches there.
WIND: Gusts of 30 MPH or greater are likely in coastal NH and northeastern MA, 40 MPH or greater from coastal areas near Boston to the South Shore, 50 MPH or greater Cape Cod across to coastal RI and down Martha’s Vineyard, and 60 MPH or greater on Nantucket.
POWER OUTAGES: The most likely area for any power problems will be the southern part of Cape Cod where the combination of strongest wind and wettest snow will be. Isolated outages possible elsewhere.
COASTAL FLOODING: Minor to moderate coastal flooding is most likely in the prone areas such as Scituate and Sandwich and similar locations from the South Shore of MA through Cape Cod and the from a couple hours before to a couple hours after high tide times both Saturday night and Sunday morning. Cannot rule out a pocket of major flooding since we have a full moon and astronomical high tides at this time. Major flooding would not be widespread in coastal areas.
After the storm! What to expect…
Improvement Sunday, fair and milder Monday, windy and not too chilly but a few rain showers Tuesday with an approaching cold front, then breezy and colder but fair weather Wednesday behind this front.
TODAY: Overcast. A band of light snow showers possible late morning to early afternoon from Boston area to the 128/95 belt around the city then may progress westward before dissipating, otherwise snow developing from south to north during the course of the day. Snow may mix with or even turn to rain at times on parts of Cape Cod and Nantucket. Highs 27-35, coldest over interior MA and southwestern to south central NH, mildest Cape Cod. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH in areas northwest of Boston, NE to E 10-25 MPH with higher gusts elsewhere (see above for peak gusts).
TONIGHT: Snow retreats northwest to southeast, lastly on Cape Cod. See above for accumulations. Lows 23-30. Wind NE to N 15-30 MPH, higher gusts (see above).
SUNDAY: Lingering clouds Cape Cod for part of the morning otherwise mostly sunny. Highs in the 30s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Highs 35-42.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy and windy. Brief light mix possible morning. Few rain showers late. Lows 28-35. Highs in the 40s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 28-FEBRUARY 1)…
Fair weather is expected for most of if not all of this period but we may be in between systems in both the northern and southern jet streams January 29-30 so will have to keep an eye on these for most likely minor impact with any shift in storm tracks. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 2-6)…
Unsettled weather possible February 2-4 with an air mass battle possibly setting up in the area. Fair and a little colder by February 5-6 based on current timing.

634 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  4. Good morning all, once again and Thank you very much for the important storm
    update TK. Very nice discussion and forecast.

    Now that it is out, what do you think of the 12Z NAMs sudden intrusion into our
    area with a decidedly Northward shift in the snow area?

    Still convective feedback? It looks to me that is simply moves the storm
    a little bit closer is all.

    Your thoughts?

    2. I’m still noticing what appears to be minor CF on that model. I left Boston in the 1-3 zone on this update to account for the slightest shift but overall no changes to the previous forecast. The only real addition was the coastal front snow showers. I thought about putting that into yesterday’s discussion as some of the guidance had shown it there but I figured it would be minor enough that leaving it out was fine. Well now it’s there. 😉

  5. People have been stuck on the highway for more than 12 hours.
    Huge winter storm has caused traffic backup about 35 miles long on southbound Interstate 75 in Kentucky — from mile marker 76 to mile marker 41 — state trooper told CNN.

  6. Not sure if any of you missed the chatter at the end of the last blog. Indicated that a weak coastal front would indeed be enough to trigger some flakes mainly Boston area to North Shore then into 128 belt for a while morning-midday. This was already verified by some obs so there you have it. Not related directly to the storm, just a temperature/dewpoint contrast. It’s not strong enough to put down much snow.

  9. Thank you, TK. Your work is much appreciated.

    I might be seeing this incorrectly, but I believe NYC will be the big winner in the snow total contest. The Big Apple’s a yuuuuge place, with big personalities. They deserve to be number one from time to time.

    1. That would be the very same coastal front. It’s almost like a miniature warm front with the cold/dry wedge at the ground and the relatively warm/moist ocean air lifting over it. Flakes from Quincy to the North Shore to here already. I still don’t expect all that much from this feature.

      1. I know and understand that very well. (I worked at a weather radar site before and actually operated the radars ) I was making an attempt at some humor this morning. I thought it was pretty
        funny. 😀

    2. Throwing out a theory …. As the beam shoots further west or east, it reaches higher in the clouds and reads the Virga that has no chance of reaching the ground but as you get closer to the radar itself, it gives a better representation of how far the snow is from reaching the ground.

      Very very telling radar.

      1. We may not get much from this system snow wise but what an education we are getting. Thank you. Thank you TK also. I did not know that

    1. Decent overall. Shows the sharp edge. Maybe a TAD to high for the North Shore and not as bad as the over-inflated #’s for interior southeastern MA on the lower res versions.

  14. On that weather underground radar, let’s say it’s extremely accurate.

    Let’s say the snow is reaching the ground due south of Boston at the extreme south coast of Mass.

    What is the north south distance from Boston to the immediate south coast, say 40 to 50 miles ????

    So, on an upper level system that is now moving almost due east and its surface low is following suit, the precip is going to move north another 40 to 50 miles, all the while constantly fighting dry air intrusion ????

    This is why I am being so stubborn about thinking snow will greatly underachieve.

  15. Ok folks I’m going mobile around the Burlington / Woburn area for the next 2 1/2 hours. I’ll check in a few times via my trusty phone which lately decides to reboot itself randomly. 😛

  16. Dave,
    Based on what you’ve seen this morning, what are your thoughts for us folks in the Boston area?

    1. Hey Shot.

      Something like 3 inches or so give or take a bit. UNLESS the snow
      just has too much trouble getting up here. 😀

  17. I’m not as interested in this big, sprawling storm’s effect on us in SNE at this point, because I think it’ll be manageable and not remarkable, with a few notable exceptions including parts of CT, RI, and CC/Islands. I’m much more interested in the post storm analysis. For example, why is NYC the big winner, if you will, with 2 feet plus a likely total by this evening? And, why snow amounts (and wind) generally didn’t come close to verifying across most of the mid-Atlantic as well as the interior of Virginia and the Carolinas? I’ve seen reports of close to 2 feet in West Virginia (one location), but most reports from the interior are in the 12-20 range. The models consistently oversold us on snow there, as well as the major cities, DC and Baltimore. Yesterday, several forecasters said the 28 inch total from 1922 would be challenged in DC. Also, remember yesterday and the day before when the model maps were filled with snow totals in the 30’s.

    1. Joshua, I think you answered this last evening.
      My gut is it was a slow transfer of energy to the coast and snow
      lightened up or down right stopped in places and then when
      the coastal got going, it shifted the axis of snow more to the East.
      Also, perhaps the coastal didn’t intensify as quickly as thought now
      shifting axis more to the north and east??? I dunno for sure.

      Just some thoughts.

  20. China is enduring an epic winter, by the way, in terms of cold and snow. Coldest in 60 years. Beijing’s temp dropped to 1F, which it hadn’t in 35 years. Snow in southern Shanghai, and truly extreme temperatures in the interior (<-45F).

  21. question, if there is a coastal front and it starts to produce snow flurries/snow showers could it make it easier to get the snow going once it gets further north and east?

    1. Wondering that too…if this dry air is keeping that monster at bay how is it allowing this weak disturbance to snow?

  23. In Wilmington and cars are covered…coming down much more than when I left Woburn. I guess this is one of the “surprises” people wanted.

  24. Thanks TK
    Snowing moderately here. Roads and driveways coated up. Going to be tough to measure since this is a powdery snow and the wind gusts were having going to be blowing the snow all over the place.

    1. Indeed and I bet that it is showing tonight right. Harvey was saying it was the overnight timeframe for Boston . And as I post this Suffolk county WWA is up just as I mentioned earlier

  27. Radar estimates 2 hr snow rates to my southwest. Half inch our snowfall rates for my area indicated by radar.
    Hartford, Tolland, Windham counties now under winter storm warnings where they were advisories.

  28. Hello all! We have had flakes falling here in Coventry CT (about 15 miles east of Hartford) for the past hour or so. Basically just flurries with no accumulation. The northern edge of precip is having a very hard time getting up here.

      1. I echo that Mark. We truly miss regulars when they
        leave for a while whatever the reason.

        A hearty WELCOME BACK!!!

  29. Just saw the snow map from NWS out of Boston. Having trouble posting it so maybe JP Dave could post it. Showing 3-4 for Boston New Haven and Bridgeport look to be the big winners 14-18 inches my area in the 10-14 inch range.

      1. at 10AM obs gusting to 29 at the airport.

        gusting to 38 mph at Blue Hill, so it’s up there and will come down.

  35. Dave that band on radar estimated 2 inches an hour. There are more bands coming into around the New Haven area from Long Island Sound.

  37. Heading into the city now my son has a fractured hand from snow boarding ugh. I think Boston has been overlooked and I think many will be surprised . Excellent call with the WWA posted . Nice job JP sticking with Boston

    2. John,
      Sorry about your son. Normal injury that happens. It hurts and he will
      be inconvenienced, but at least it’s not serious. I hope not anyway.

      Check out the GFS. It wants to bring yet more snow to Boston

        1. Tonight ?????

          I think the best snow chances are now through mid evening.

          After that, the things (dynamics, lift) that cause the precip to form are going to moving further away from us and weakening.

          I think you’ll know by 5 to 7 pm tonight if Bostons snowfall verifies or not.

  38. Thanks JJ and Dave. Been super busy but have been reading all your posts and appreciate the model links and snow maps, especially this week.

    Not sure what the NWS is thinking expanding the warnings into my area in northern CT and calling now for 6-10″. The heavier radar echoes are moving more in an east to west direction than south to north. It is going to have to snow very hard this afternoon for that to verify. Still just flurries here

  40. At the sea wall, wind is shaking F150.

    Already seeing splash over with 1.5 hrs til high tide.

    Quickly, I just don’t get the continued increase in advisories. I must be looking at the wrong radar.

    1. Here is your 10:1 ratio 12Z GFS snow map:

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016012312/gfs_asnow_neus_7.png

      Compare to 6Z

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016012306/gfs_asnow_neus_9.png

      And to 0Z

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016012300/gfs_asnow_neus_11.png

      So you can readily see there has been a steady Increase in snow Northward
      there is something going on.

      I’d laugh my ass off if the mesoscale models were correct all along. 😆 😆 😆

  42. Funny how misinformation spreads…overhearing two older ladies from Billerica talking. One of them says she is hitting the foods the now before the foot of snow comes.

  44. Mark I don’t agree putting the four northern counties in CT under a winter storm warning. I think the northern portions of those four counties are going to have very little in the way of snow and might not even make advisory level snowfall.

      1. Every was raving about the GFS. Now it wants to bring snow in
        here and you relegate it to the Company of the NAM?
        Shame on you. 😆 😆

        1. LOL ….. I can’t remember what I had for breakfast, but I don’t think I’m usually a big GFS proponent.

          Just not feeling it. I’m even in reverse thinking my inch or at most, 2 inch idea for Marshfield is too high.

          1. And your feelings on the EURO which WILL
            also bring the snow farther North???????

            Then is there a model you do favor other than
            the Mathematical Gridded Marshfield TTOM Model???

            😆

            1. LOL, this close to the storm, I favor my instinct and experience (both of which well could be wrong). I also factor in what is currently happening, and take my best guess.

              At this point, for me, the models have served their purpose and the human skill set (or lack there of) takes over.

              I usually end up in the lack there of column, LOL !!!!!!!!!!

              1. Right or wrong you make very good sense there. I try to do that with a healthy dose of whatever
                guidance I can get my hands on
                and then some. 😆

                1. I know what you are saying. The models say the snow is coming, but your eyes say WTF, it ain’t getting here. 😀

  47. Still think these models, and the NWS snow map which they are influencing, are just plain wrong on the northern extent of heavier snows. Precip line hasn’t moved appreciably all morning, occasionally it’s even been beaten back a bit. I’ll be shocked if the NWS prediction of 6-8″ of snow in Wrentham verifies (my last day here before spring semester!) Maybe on a 40:1 snow ratio.

    1. Exactly !!!

      I’ve been awake since 7am and the snow that’s hitting the ground has moved 10 to maybe 20 miles north in 4 hrs !!!!!!!

      1. I think you are both incorrect. Hey, I’ve been wrong many times, but I don’t think so this time. We shall see.

    1. Sorry, in my hurry to post I misread. The above was for yesterday’s 12Z
      Last night’s 0Z had 15MM or about .6 inch qpf.

      Today’s 12Z is not in yet. Sorry

    1. The radar is showing the snow retracting back south and moving east, I suspect this makes it much past providence

  51. Thanks tk 🙂

    We are ready for the Patriots game in 24hrs. I’m hoping the Patriots play well.
    Just glanced at the radar and it looks like it hasn’t moved since 7am, it’s only moving eastward.

  56. 11AM
    Wind gusting to 39 mph at Logan and 42 at Blue hill
    42 at Nantucket. Interesting that is virtually just as windy at logan
    as it is at Nantucket.

  57. I like to look at 4 radars, Portland, Albany, NYC and Boston.

    FOr example, here is a Portland Radar which is a fair distance from Boston.
    I would have to do the Math to figure at what height these echoes would be.
    It is a .5 degree angle on the radar and portland is what 140 miles or so from Boston.
    Rough guess we are looking at echoes of 12,000 to 15,000 feet. The column IS
    moistening from the top down. Lower levels should be moistening some from ocean flow.

    Have a look

    http://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/me/portland-gray/gyx/?region=bml

    Here is Albany

    http://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/ny/albany/enx/?region=bml

    And NY

    http://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/ny/albany/enx/?region=bml

    I think you are going to see the snow reaching the ground all over the area
    at about the same time as the column all of a sudden becomes moist enough.

  58. I’m still mobile. Been driving around that little snow band in the 128 belt. Patchy “snizzle” elsewhere.

  60. Just spitting snow here. On the nose for time

    Heading to a farmers market. Hope people are staying home. 🙂

  61. JP Dave the snow is varying intensity here sometime light sometimes moderate. Winds are gusting. Still under an inch in my back yard.

    1. the NWS mentions this model in their discussion For whatever reason they
      like this model at least for today.

    1. For that to happen, it would basically have to snow 1 inch per hour. I don’t see that happening. This all ends around midnight

      1. Boston may be done snowing before midnight and the moon may be visible shortly thereafter, at least partially.

    1. I noticed that about 1/2 hour ago here. Getting ominously dark here.
      It looks like Armageddon. It really looks like all hell is about to break out!
      Seriously, it does!!

      1. That would be shadow from middle cloud as well as low cloud, and still relatively low sun angel. No Armageddon for Boston, just a light to borderline moderate snowfall. 🙂

  67. I think here in CT north of Hartford north your going to be saying what storm.
    South of Hartford different story especially on the shoreline.

  70. HRRR starting to figure out the magnitude of the dry air. Totals down a tick in a few spots, while they come up closer to the South Coast. Again, massive gradient in snowfall out of this. Models do not always pick this up at first, and some don’t until the last minute.

      1. Actually that northern edge is moving northwest if you look at it closely. It’s being chomped by dry air (that was expected) as it wraps around the storm circulation, which is now elongating W to E. The eastward movement you see in any echoes are those that are very high up and being picked up by upper winds and being fanned away from the storm.

          1. Look at the base loop out of Taunton and you can see what I mean by the NW movement. That is not motion of the storm itself, but a result of the circulation around it.

  71. I am in a good band of snow right now.
    For a small state of CT you look at the live camera shots New Haven really coming down Hartford flurries at best.

  72. RGEM run off 12z is indicating nicely what the dry air does to the northern extent of the snow shield. This model had the best placement of initial snow compared to what was actually occurring.

    1. Before midnight N & W, BY midnight if not before in the city, and between 3AM and dawn over Cape Cod.

      Moon visible Boston north and west by shortly after midnight.

  75. Look at the most recent radar loop.
    Echoes have started moving Northward over RI at an accelerated pace.

    Move a long way very quickly. It is about to happen folks.

    1. That isn’t an acceleration of the snow area. It’s a lowering of the snow area from above. You’re seeing the process of the atmosphere getting more moist from the top down. At the same time there is still dry air advecting in from the north. The battle is on.

  80. Fox affiliate out of Denver going for 42F tomorrow and a 60% chance of light rain/snow.

    Kind of good, I think. I don’t want the Broncos to have sunny and 65F like 2 years ago, at the same time, I like that’s it’s chilly and maybe even a little damp.

        2. Yes, I guess that’s pretty similar.

          I’ve got to think there are even chances of a rainy Super Bowl, because I think it’s being played in San Francisco ??

  81. Curiosity question, why isn’t the northeast wind off the ocean helping to saturate the atmosphere? Sorry, I’m no met. Just wondering.

    2. I personally don’t like any of the cable channels, especially MSNBC and FOX because neither really conducts journalism. I find them extensions of the democrat and republican parties. When I want news, I want straight news. If I want politics, there are appropriate places to go for that.

      1. I am way more worried about the refs than the pats. Believe me the nfl wants Manning in the SB as it’s likely his last year and is a good HGH…I mean “feel good” story.

  85. We have an atmospheric layer cake folks.
    I’m not sure many people understand the magnitude of the dry air just above the low level ocean moist layer and below the “storm clouds”.
    9 degree dewpoint depression at Boston. That’s huge. 850 is gonna eat that snow for a while yet. That’s why Boston won’t get into the band until at least 2PM, and even then it will be fighting.

  88. TK, I notice in your long range outlook a mention of an air mass battle the first week of February and that signal is certainly on the GFS and perhaps other models.

    Any initial instinct from this far out on if our general latitude is going to be on the cold side, warm side or in btwn ?? I know this probably isn’t a fair question given how far out this is …….

    1. No idea yet. But I’d lean toward SNE ending up on the cold side. I’m not even sure this takes place yet. I just seen enough evidence not to ignore the possibility, so the long range errs on that cautions side in case anyone’s making plans – just to keep in the back of your mind.

  89. Steady snow in north Smithfield RI. Everything white now. It has arrived. Will see if the moderate snowshield makes it to Boston and for how long.

    1. Thank you Shotime.

      Here are 2 of Bernie’s Tweets

      Bernie Rayno ‏@AccuRayno 2h2 hours ago
      The N push that I discussed early this wk was dead on. I don’t think many believed tue/wed that.my bust was Fri, no question. too Stubborn.
      5 retweets 60 likes
      Reply Retweet 5
      Like 60
      More
      Bernie Rayno ‏@AccuRayno 2h2 hours ago
      Impressive.U can see dry air across S New Eng. Tight gradient. 3-6 Boston, foot s cape, 12+ coastal Ct, Ri

  94. Snow must be very close to reaching the ground in Marshfield because the sky has a uniform gray cloud base.

  98. Four hours after seeing my first flake, it’s still just flurries in Coventry CT. No accumulation except for a light dusting on the deck. Dry air just too difficult to overcome. NWS is going to bust big time in their expansion of warnings further north!

    1. One of the synoptic snowbands “came loose” from the storm, almost like the storm is trying to hurl a missile into the dry air to break it down. Watch what happens to that band as it tries to move northward.

        1. After a little while. This will be the story up here. The BIG snow is in a wall further S. That never gets up this far.

          1. I have got another band moving in from the southeast. We will see if it suffers the same demise as the first one!

          2. Well if this all ends around midnight the clock is ticking…the longer it takes to start here I assume the less we get if that time is a hard cutoff.

  101. I’m sorry, JP Dave, I’m not feeling it. Air is still very dry (and windy, as you say). I doubt Boston gets accumulating snow. But, what a storm in NYC. That is epic: 24-30 inches. Could break a record or two down there.

  107. Man tired of changing maps. Do any mets use actual meteorology? With every model run its a dash to change maps.

    2. On the bright side it will melt fast is the 5 day temps hold up (and beyond). Will be back on my AC heat for a while!

    1. I am not totally sure now about just up to 1 inch anymore for boston. As I showed on my map, Boston is right on the edge of having more.
      Light snow is starting in the city of Boston. About an hour and a half earlier than i thought.

  112. JP Dave, Practically nothing here. I’m in Back Bay. I’d call it flurries to very light snow. No coating yet. You are a couple of miles south and that may explain it. It is very windy.

    I hope the real snow begins to fall soon.

  114. John, JP Dave, I may be where the cutoff is. Lol. I’m on Beacon Street. I’m telling you one has to really look hard to see snow falling. It’s falling about as lightly as it can. No coating yet. I hope we get measurable snow. If it’s in JP, it should make it to Back Bay, one would think. I hope your call for 4-6 inches is correct.

    1. Joshua, I assure you it is coming down good. It’s not Moderate here, but it
      is a decent accumulating light snow. Vis about 1 mile to 1.5 mile, fluctuating.

  117. Between now and 2 we should see that advance snow band get severely damaged by the dry air…

  118. Maybe tk can chime in, but the back edge is moving due south. I think Boston stops snowing by 7-8pm

  119. Literally went to actual snow just now after Two hours of spitting. And it is sticking immediately on surfaces.

  120. Everything is COVERED and the Snow is blowing around like crazy.
    Snow just really picked up. Bordering on Moderate snow.

  121. I think the next several hours will feature these stray bands that somehow make their way into the Boston area but produce very little impact. Surfaces are cold so whatever falls will stick. The only purpose for these bands is to help further moisten the column.

    Might take until 7PM or so for the more meaningful bands to make it into parts of central and eastern Mass. That is when your accumulation takes place.

      1. The snow you are seeing now is from the main event. The snow flakes are being made WAY up, around 20,000 feet. When those snow flakes are big enough, they fall into whatever is below it, saturated or unsaturated. Each time the flake falls into an unsaturated layer, it begins to evaporate. In this case the entire flake sublimates because the unsaturated layer is extremely dry and extends pretty thick in the vertical column. It does not take a big unsaturated layer to make a snowflake go poof.

        Now…If enough flakes fall into this layer and there is no dry air being blown in from a drier air-mass which is currently happening now, the humidity of the unsaturated layer can increase and the depth will gradually shrink.

        It is still going to be several more hours before the column becomes completely saturated(does it even?). When/if that happens, you can get meaningful snowfall rates.

    2. Exactly, it’s been snowing light to moderate here, currently lighter, but not accumulating fast. .3 here in attkeboro

    1. Look at the base loop, not the composite. The composite clutters the radar with higher level echoes from several radar sites.

            2. My initial call was 1-2 favoring the low side yesterday. This morning I updated it to 1-3 but did not favor either side. It could be that the North End gets 1 inch and JP Dave gets 4. The gradient can be that tight. We’re only talking about a couple tenths of an inch of melted precipitation difference to create fairly significant differences from one place to another.

  123. Snowing moderately in westwood. Everything is snow covered. The radar means business and I think from Boston south, southwest and southeast, we stay in it for the next many hours. Several inches just south of Boston not out of the question to up to a few in the city. Patience my friends.

    2. Surprised they didn’t do it earlier, since it was a weekend anyway. It’s also funny how bad the NAM was doing leading up to this and how it suddenly got a good handle literally as the storm was underway, regarding that part of the area.

      1. I was surprised also, TK. Patrick and Baker set the standard here. I would think others in the states who are aware of this would have learned from it

  127. Necn agrees with tk in that in ends 7-9pm Boston north, 8-10pm in Boston. Variation between light and moderate snow until then.

  128. Last year this storm would have been 100 miles north, and we would have been NYC, thank the good lord!!!

    1. I have no issue missing this snow. Last year burns bright in my memory. We can’t control it…just have to hope it works out the way you want.

      1. This storm did, I call it another Charlie snow event. Not causing much problems. Last year was a very very bad winter for many.

        1. I almost left the state ha…if it wasn’t for my wife and the kids liking the schools. I know a lot of people love snow and all the power to them. When you have to clean the snow yourself and miss work with kids it’s more of a pain. I defInitely loved it as a kid. Still I am very much aware snow is a part of life here and I don’t complain about it too much. I admit I like the changing of the seasons although Fall rocks!

  133. Finally the first burst of real snow here in east Woburn. It is not doing anything yet a few miles north of me.

    I think we’re almost at the northern limit of where the snow shield is going to go. Should hold steady soon before it starts to pivot then move southeast. But this process will take SEVERAL HOURS. During that time, where it is already snowing can get some additional bands rotating up from the southeast. The set-up and movement of these will determine the final amounts in the questionable areas. For the Boston area, the next 6 hours will be the telling ones.

  134. I am mobile in W. Roxbury.
    It is coming down.
    Vis 1/2 ti 3/4 miles. Very very Wintry!!
    Very steady. NO LET UPS IN 1 hour 15
    Minutes of snowing.

  135. Reposting this as it probably already got lost. Important to understand what is currently going in within the ENTIRE column.

    The snow you are seeing now is from the main event. The snow flakes are being made WAY up, around 20,000 feet. When those snow flakes are big enough, they fall into whatever is below it, saturated or unsaturated. Each time the flake falls into an unsaturated layer, it begins to evaporate. In this case the entire flake sublimates because the unsaturated layer is extremely dry and extends pretty thick in the vertical column. It does not take a big unsaturated layer to make a snowflake go poof.

    Now…If enough flakes fall into this layer and there is no dry air being blown in from a drier air-mass which is currently happening now, the humidity of the unsaturated layer can increase and the depth will gradually shrink.

    It is still going to be several more hours before the column becomes completely saturated(does it even?). When/if that happens, you can get meaningful snowfall rates.

    1. In Westwood, we have been seeing meaningful snowfall rates. Yet, I doubt 5-10 miles northwest of me will ever see that.

  136. Scott wit all due respect it is snowing like hell
    In boston.
    I just walked through a parking lot.
    The win oh the wind.
    I’m Ving to make a bold dtatement.
    They should post a blizzard warning for Boston!!

        1. The wrap they use now….not sure if they are using on him….was originally vet wrap. We used it for decades to wrap injured horses legs. I wondered when they’d catch on in the medical field. We also used crondroitin sulfate and glucosamine (sp?) back in the early 90s for their joints.

          1. Arod I was running in and out of the ER as I had to check the snow. He feel last night snowboarding and took him to health stop in pembroke and diagnosed him with a buckle fracture and said to follow with ortro. Today pain was worse so took him to children’s and he does not have a buckle fracture he has a broken wrist , thanks health stop. They said it was good we brought him in.

  139. Snowing steadily here in Wrentham, but not all that impressive. Even as it snows you can tell it’s not without inhibition. The RAP and HRRR think we can get to 6″, but that seems to be stretching it. Maybe 3-5″ unless the precip shield really kicks north in the next two hours.

  140. 23.5″ of snow so far at Washington Dulles. They could challenge the all time record there. NYC should come in with a similar total. Boston the only “megalopolis” city to mostly miss out. The poor NYC mets, always in the wrong place, wrong time- bet most people didn’t see 24-30″ coming there! Opposite of last winter’s blizzard here which they unexpectedly missed out on.

  143. Latest NWS snow map has Boston in the 2-3 inch range with the 3-4 inch range just a bit to the south of the city.

  145. Whatever snow that made it north of a line from Weymouth to Woonsocket is getting gobbled up. That NE flow is still a relatively dry.

  146. There is no way!! No way we get more than 2 inches down here, it’s a light snow, almost flurry like, it’s accumulating but at snails pace.

    1. Same here so far. Light sugar coating that blow around and the snow has all but stopped (for now).

  147. Moderate snow, visibility 1/2 to 3/4 mile. It is blowing around quite a bit.

    Streets mostly covered, but we are near 32F with the ocean wind.

    Guessing on 3/4 of an inch …..

  148. Ok, I Think I see what you guys meant.
    It has now STOPPED compeltelyhere. I’m in line for it to pick up again soon,
    but perhaps not so fast to the North.

      1. Yup. We’ll be seeing pushes of this for the duration because as the storm is trying to pivot in, the dry air is still pushing in from the N.

    2. High stakes in that area. I think closer to 2 or 3 for you.

      Now that is starting to come into line with reality.

  150. Earlier I made an adjustment in my overall accumulation to tighten up the gradient. Otherwise, NO CHANGES planned at this time. Everything pretty much going as anticipated, and it sure is shaky on the edge of this monster. 😛

  151. It’s really interesting to watch the snow here.

    Can literally see the battle of moisture vs dry air.

    We are pulsing back and forth btwn very light snow to moderate/heavy snow. It’s happened a few times in just the last 15 minutes.

  152. As far as the 128/495 belt north of the Pike and eastward, that first snow band has now been completely destroyed by the dry air.

    1. Munch, munch, chomp, chomp. The dry air monster. Snowflakes, yum, me want snowflakes now, give me some snowflakes,.

      1. People underestimate the ability of extremely dry air to just suck up precipitation. I’ve done it myself many times. We had a storm a couple winters ago that was similar. Everyone was convinced the big amounts were going all the way through MA into NH but we cautioned to not discount the dry air, which won out very nicely in these areas.

        This is not the exact same set-up, but a few similarities.

  153. 32 KM 18Z NAM snow map

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016012318&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=024

    12km NAM snow

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016012318/namconus_asnow_neus_10.png

    4km NAM snow

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016012318/nam4km_asnow_neus_7.png

    WRF-ARW

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw/2016012312/wrf-arw_asnow_neus_36.png

    WRF-NMM

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-nmm/2016012312/wrf-nmm_asnow_neus_36.png

    1. They are doing a little better and better as we go. They have trouble gauging the dry air. The WRF-NMM is probably going to perform worst of all there.

  154. No real snow accumulation here in Back Bay. Well, a trace, but nothing more. I guess I was serious when I said Back Bay is the cutoff. It’s too dry. The storm is also too far away. I’m not holding my breath about seeing any snow of significance. This storm just didn’t `want’ to impact Boston.

    I did hear from a friend in Providence that the snow is fairly steady there. 6 inches could verify by evening.

    Amazing totals should be coming out of NYC area.

    I hadn’t seen the 23.5 inch total at Dulles. Thanks for posting. That would indeed indicate a possible challenge of the all-time record.

    John, I’m sorry to hear about your son. I hope he recovers quickly.

    Now, I need go out and shovel a flake or two.

    2. Complete trash this run. I wish they’d make that model more reliable. So much potential, ruined by so much warranted distrust. *sigh*

    1. lasphemy!!!

      However, I must say I do NOT NOT NOT like the looks of the radar.
      Every time it looks like it’s going to move back in. WHAM out it goes again.

      We shall see.

      2. Hey we have a new meaning for the term “DRY LINE”
        don’t we. 😀 Anyway, that line keeps moving farther South of me.

        Scott, I sure hope you are not correct, but this isn’t good.

        1. Whatever is keeping Boston dry now is not going anywhere. That “dry line” is not moving north anytime soon.

  158. Boston harbor buoy wind has gone from 070 to 060 to 050 the last 2 hrs.

    Perhaps if that’s happening at the surface, it’s also happening at other levels of the column, which would favor a further push back of drier air towards the south and east.

    1. Lower parts of the ranges north, higher parts of the ranges south. The product of a very tight gradient.

  160. A nameless amateur FB page that promised decent snow through all of MA and into NH and ME despite being nicely told about reasoning is still trying to hold onto this one, but to deflect attention is already posting the CMC for January 29 and hyping a possible major snowstorm for southern New England. 😉

  161. Not impressed!! But we were not supposed to be impressed, appears it’s beginning it’s pivot slowly south and east

  164. This dry air at the surface is still impressive, never mind 850mb. GFS showed this for while. Still an 8 degree dewpoint depression in Boston, recent snow was honestly a complete waste of QPF.

  169. We’re back to some light snow in Woburn as a narrow band has formed overhead. I’m nearing 0.1 inch!

  170. I just clicked storm reports on Taunton’s NWS site and if I am reading it correctly, at 11:30 am this morning, Block Island, RI had a wind gust of 75 mph !

      1. The ever source power outage map and report are filling up. Evidently 8% of Marshfield is out.

        Oh my goodness, I’m flashing back to Nemo when that report became a daily following for a full week

  174. 3″ in the west end of Taunton with moderate snow.
    Blizzard Warning now for all of Cape Cod.

    1. Already another dry tongue forming to the NE. It’ll snow again in Boston then get shaky again not long after that.

      1. It picking up again in the City and it looks like the real
        MEAT is trying to approach. We have to make hay in the
        next several hours, else practically nothing.

  178. Snowing again here, but it looks like yet another hole opening up.

    NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!

    😆 FIGURES.

    1. Mentioned that just above… Enjoy the snow/wind combo when you get it. It’s pretty cool – even here!

  184. Closing in on 3 inches where I am. Curious if that heavier band of snow survives that is east stays together or weakens.
    NYC Long Island Northern NJ getting hammered.

  185. SNOWING HARD now in Boston (JP anyway)
    Hard to tell vis from where I am, but I’d guess damn close to 1/2 mile 😀

    1. Almost like that batch is trying to snow itself out because it’s afraid of the dry air. 😉

    1. There’s about 1-2 inches of snow down here John.

      It’s snowing lightly to moderately.

      The side roads are greasy, I do not know about the main roads, but given the intensity of the snow the last 1 to 2 hrs, they probably are greasy as well.

  192. Man channel 7 driving me nuts. Four map changes over several hours. They had it right this morning but keep making it worse. Example: my area went from coating-1″ (accurate) to 1-2″ to 1-3″ and now I am under 2-4″.

        1. You did …. See at bottom it says image generated at 3:45pm. I think it’s a subtle subtle change along the mass pike, perhaps tinkering along this crazy tight gradient.

  193. Block Island, RI at 8 inches, Nantucket at 4.5 inches

    The last times of these measurements were an hour or 2 ago, so I’m sure both locations have more.

    Amounts from Taunton, NWS

  194. OK, the SERIOUS SHIT is in BOSTON.

    Nowing HEAVILY Vis near 1/4 mile. I mean it is REALLY coming DOWN!!
    No fiddle Effing around. REALLY SERIOUS SNOW!!!!!!

    1. Good for them, honestly wish they didn’t get into the good stuff because I’m stuck up in Vermont with clear skies…

      1. Wish you were here. This looks so good. Too bad it won’t last long enough to give us a real dumping, but I’ll take 3 or 4 inches or so. 😀

      1. John I’m A couple of miles away from the medical area
        and it is Dry snow here, blowing all over the place and sticking
        to everything. Accumulating quickly

    3. The serious stuff is over Cape Cod. Much heavier than what’s in Boston. That’s saying something. 🙂

  195. My Wife just found a post on FB.

    It states:

    IF YOU ARE PRAYING FOR A BLIZZARD, PLEASE GO TO DAIRY QUEEN!!!

    LMAO!!!!

  199. Roads r greasy in north Attleboro up to foxboro but mainly wet pavement from foxboro , everything is much worse south

  200. Have to wait and see the final totals for NYC Philly Baltimore and D.C. but its entirely possible those cities will be close if not exceed there normal seasonal snowfall in just one storm.

    2. I’D say so, but there’s still a 5-7 Degree Dewpoint Depression (Is that the term to describe the difference between temp and dew?)
      4PM Logan temp 32 Dew 25
      Norwood, Temp 32 dew 26
      Nantucket temp 34 Dew 33 (that’s what we expect)

  204. Ok, this is it. Whatever is going to fall near the battle line is going to happen in the next 90 minutes or so. The storm is throwing whatever it can at the dry air, but the movement and acceleration southeast is not that far away from getting underway!

  205. As hard as it is snowing here now, there are even Stronger echoes moving NorthWestward up to even with MA/RI border. If this gets to BOSTON……

  210. Conditions are clearly better in Dedham, even less snow .6 so far light snow, but blowing sideways

  211. It’s beginning to move east and south, tk is this gonna move quicker out than anticipated? It looks like it could just end in just a couple hours

    1. No. It’s all right on time. Amounts look good so far. I’ll miss in a few areas but hey nobody’s perfect. 😉

    1. We’re not even to 1/2 inch yet. 0.3. Good blowing snow though, borderline moderate in intensity but not sustained.

  214. There is a huge snow gradient just between JpDave’s location and Logan Airport.

    If I’ve listened well to well to JpDave, he is a handful of miles from the airport and some of that distance is a southward displacement.

    In the Logan airport obs, their visibility has not been lower than 7 miles, which probably also explains what Joshua has been reporting.

    Quite cool stuff !!!

    2. Their inner-hour obs have reported a visibility as low as .75 miles about 10 minutes ago. Still considered light, especially with the wind blowing everything around.

  216. Went out to start car..heavy dusting I guess so far? For some reason I am the only house on the street that is holding onto snow…figure that one.

      2. You really don’t need to worry about an inch on the roof. It’ll all be gone by Tuesday. 🙂

    1. JR on Ch 7 says that Boston is just getting underway and the dry air is losing to the snow which will now accumulate in the city up through midnight…

      I don’t believe you and he share the same opinion. 🙂

      1. First pressure rise of the day at 5pm and a wind shift to northerly.

        Perhaps I’ll give my old college friend a little grief about that thought, LOL !!!!!!

  224. Mark what amazing where we live in CT places near the MA boarder will have little or snow and work your way down to Shoreline approaching or not exceeding 10 inches of snow. I got three inches here.

    1. JJ, there is virtually nothing about 5 miles north of me and twice as much snow about 5 miles south. Reminds me of being under a lake effect snow band back in upstate NY

  225. What time will it stop in Boston tk? 7-8pm, the last few images on radar are showing signs of that southeast pivot

      1. I just saw JR on Channel 7 as he broke in on the Figure Skating.
        He said it would quit in Boston Midnight to 1AM. I know you
        are correct, but I saw him and heard him.

  226. For those who like stats here is a good one for you. Tweet from meteorologist Quincy Vagell.
    It’s official, the first snowstorm on record to drop 18″+ at both Washington, D.C. and New York City; still snowing:

    So Far D.C. 21.4 inches
    NYC 19.5 inches

      1. This morning it looked like DC, Baltimore, and the interior were under-performing. I called out the forecasters on this. It was premature on my part. The totals in the 30s verified in some locales in the interior, and 2 feet plus appear to verify from DC to NYC. Actually, NYC has over-performed.

  228. It does look like Boston is getting its heaviest snow thus far. Seeing very dark green, even a few yellows on the weather underground radar.

    1. The problem is, they don’t stay saturated consistently. Influxes of dry air interrupt it. Another one is coming.

  230. Back in Norwood. Rt 1 is terrible. Be careful Charlie before you give the public bad info. Roads snow covered. Very dangerous situation. Close to 3 inches here in moderate to heavy snow. Just stopped for gas.

  231. Roads are bad in Wrentham… Pretty decent snow at times, looks like we have maybe 2-3″, I’ll measure later though. I may eat my words about not getting 6-8″ here. Perhaps we just squeak out 6″.

  232. Still snowing very hard here. Vis 1/4 to 1/2 mile can’t tell for sure.

    from TOM I am 5-6 miles Due SW from Airport.

    1. Snowing very hard here, too. You were right to keep the faith. I had very little until about 90 minutes ago.

    2. checked several windows. More like Visibility of 1/2 mile. Not 1/4.
      Don’t want to give out bad info.

  233. Providence (and Attleboro, yes, Charlie, that’s you) may get more than 6 inches when all is said and done.

  235. NYC area getting the amounts of snow that were forecasted for the blizzard last year which we all know was far less than what was predicted. This time way more snow than predicted.

  236. Heavy stuff in Wrentham. However, looking at radar, it has the “end game” look to it. Within the next hour or two we should start seeing holes ripped in the precip shield as the storm pulls away. Maybe already starting.

    1. Dry tongue reappearing offshore and working west southwestward very fast. MA East Coast first. At the same time the dry air from the N is getting ready to push south. Not much movement at first, but not that far away from getting going.

    1. NWS ever so slightly shifted their snow accumulation bands southward. The only area that went up was southeastern MA.

  238. On 93 headed to logan, fair amount of traffic, speed around 30, roads pretty rough. Glad I’m in a big suburban…

  239. I have to say good job to everyone this past week. TK excellent as always. JP and Coastal thanks for keeping the faith and all the links!

  240. Jp Dave… How easy will it be for you to get a reasonably accurate snow measurement so far?

    1. Hi TK. Been watching TV

      I could easily go out. My wife will think I’m nuts

      Looking out and watching a neighbor shovel, we certainly have 2 inches probably closing in on 3. I know that is not the accuracy you want.

      Let me see what i can do. 😀

  242. I didn’t realize son in law had shoveled. Twice. He thinks we had about 2 inches at the time. I’m not as sure because of blowing. I know some protected areas I can measure later but won’t have a real accurate measure for this storm.

    Moderate snow here now.

  245. For Logan, in just the last hour, they reported .12 melted.

    .14 melted thus far, so ….. Logan should be at 1.5 inches at the very least.

    My guess is they will end up reporting somewhere between 2.5 to 3.0 inches by the time things end.

    Nick, if you are a little south of Logan, probably add to that a bit, north, subtract a bit.

  249. Just over 2.5″ top of the hill in Roslindale. Coming down moderately in very small flakes and least amount of wind all day.

  251. Well, Boston got more snow than I thought. DC, NY and Philly got a ton more snow than I thought.

    You win one, you lose the rest 🙂

    The story of my meteorology hobby. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  254. That’s where I am…by no means an official meansurement…just guessing buly depth when walking to my door. I can see you from my house.

  256. TK still on target for a ~8pm cutoff in our area? I am not the best at reading the radar but I see no end to it short term. Thanks!

    1. I like 9 a little better now. Grabbed a good band and wrapped it in on the pivot. Still will see the moon by midnight or shortly after. That hasn’t changed. 🙂

  257. Boston N&W will really be winding down by 9PM. Additional inch or so by then. SE Mass snows through midnight with several more inches possible there.

  258. Hello. Watched Barry. He UPPED his totals to 2-6 inches for Boston.

    He said probably 4 or 5 inches or so in the City.

    I’ll see IF I can get a reasonable measurement.

  260. Solid snow band has come together nicely over central and eastern CT. Snowing harder here now than it has all day. 3″+ and no let up yet!

  263. 4.5 inches and snow moderately. I think I got a good chance to get at least half of foot of snow if not a little more.

  264. Just took a crap load of measurements:

    3.25 inches in JP and coming down in Buckets. I got covered in snow out there
    and could barely see down the end of my street which has 4 houses on each side.

    Amazing A legitimate snow storm IF it were only to last long enough.

    For this Winter I’ll take it. Very very WIntry out there!!!!

    1. I just don’t know how you always come in with the highest snow totals?? You must be a snow magnet, folks well south don’t have that much lol 🙂

  265. I was out there in the snow taking some measurements. Came in 4.5 inches so far and continues to snow moderate clip. Thankfully have not lost power.

  266. Just walked the dog with my boys. We have about 4 inches here in Halifax. We live on a dirt road surrounded by lots of trees and it is beautiful. Even my boys commented about it.

  267. As hard as it is snowing here, it’s coming down even harder on the South Shore
    and the Cape. heavier bands keep rotating through. Occasionally we get part
    of one up here. I keep the radar on RAIN so I can see the echoes better.
    Those bands are YELLOW and I have had YELLOW here a few times.

  268. Logan’s latest ob has a melted total of .23 and a 7F temperature drop during the last hour.

    At .23 melted and given the temps, I’m guessing they are near 3″.

  269. I’m going to write a new blog post. We are nearing 700 comments on this one and some people have to scroll all the way from top to bottom on their phones every time they check in for comments.

    There will be a few small tweaks in the final #’s but nothing major. We’re entering the last few hours of the storm now. Radar shows the NW edge has begun to move steadily to the southeast.

    Going to write it now. Be back soon. Go Bruins!

      1. 😀
        I admit I was sure rooting for it big time.
        Even though we missed on the Big event, this is a spectacular
        consolation prize!!!!

    2. WOW!!!!!!!!!!!

      Snowing even harder!!!! VIS NEAR ZERO!!!
      Most is SNOW, but a bit is blowing. I’d say vis is about 1/16 mile or so.
      INCREDIBLE. I did NOT expect this!!!!

      I expected light to moderate at best.

      1. Ok that incredible burst backed off a bit.
        Vis back up to 1/4 mile or a tad more. That was way cool!!!

  271. I am now hoping for the end of next week lol I hate seeing snow in the south when I get next to nothing Rather those down south get rain

      2. With that particular band over Boston and given the temp, I agree with you.

        There is a SE trend to that back edge now that wasn’t there an hour ago, so I guess it will depend on if that heavy snow band can hang in there another 1 hour.

  273. Jim Cantore
    12 mins ·
    Dulles at #2 ALL-TIME:
    Dulles International Ai [Loudoun Co, VA] official nws obs reports SNOW of M28.3 INCH at 07:00 PM EST —

  274. Tweet from NWS out of Upton
    The snowfall at Central Park is 25.1″ which is the 3rd greatest in NYC since 1869. Snow cont. to fall. Record is 26.9″ Feb 11-12 2006

    1. Indeed. Mea Culpa. 12 hours ago I declared this storm over-hyped. It was not. The totals are astounding and they cover such a large area. Consider also that in this storm measurable snow has fallen from Florida to Massachusetts (not sure if NH and Maine get any measurable snow).

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