Saturday Forecast Update

143 Comments

7:44PM

Here is an extra post to get things updated. Much of what comes below will be unchanged from the previous post, but some tweaks are being made to the final snow numbers and a couple other minor adjustments. An additional update will follow tomorrow morning as usual.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 23-27)…
Storm update! What to expect in southern New England…
WHEN: Ongoing but ending Sunday morning.
SNOW START TIME: It started a long time ago and wherever it didn’t snow, it’s not gonna snow.
SNOW END TIME: From northwest to southeast through about 3AM Sunday, lastly Cape Cod and Nantucket.
SNOW INTENSITY: Heaviest bands as of 7:25PM are across Cape Cod and the South Coast with another in the immediate Boston area to Metro West but these will be shifting south to southeast and diminishing.
SNOW ACCUMULATION: Nothing or flakes in the air briefly in southern NH, dusting to 1 inch north central and northeastern MA, 1-3 inches just northwest of Boston stretching northeast to interior northeastern MA from near Boston west southwestward along the Mass Pike belt and just to the north, 3-6 inches from Boston west southwestward just south of the Mass Pike, 6-12 inches to the south of there with locally over 12 inches in some locations near the South Coast.
WIND: Gusts of 30 MPH or greater are likely in coastal NH and northeastern MA, 40 MPH or greater from coastal areas near Boston to the South Shore, 50 MPH or greater Cape Cod across to coastal RI and down Martha’s Vineyard, and 60 MPH or greater on Nantucket. Most of this has already occurred but the threat lingers a little longer this evening.
POWER OUTAGES: The most likely area for any power problems will remain the southern part of Cape Cod where the combination of strongest wind and wettest snow will be. Scattered outages elsewhere in southeastern MA, RI, and CT.
COASTAL FLOODING: Minor to moderate coastal flooding is most likely in the prone areas such as Scituate and Sandwich and similar locations from the South Shore of MA through Cape Cod and the from a couple hours before to a couple hours after high tide times both Saturday night and Sunday morning. Cannot rule out a pocket of major flooding since we have a full moon and astronomical high tides at this time. Major flooding would not be widespread in coastal areas.
After the storm! What to expect…
Improvement Sunday, fair and milder Monday, windy and not too chilly but a few rain showers Tuesday with an approaching cold front, then breezy and colder but fair weather Wednesday behind this front.
TONIGHT: Snow retreats northwest to southeast, lastly on Cape Cod. See above for accumulations. Lows 23-30. Wind NE to N 15-30 MPH, higher gusts (see above).
SUNDAY: Lingering clouds Cape Cod for part of the morning otherwise mostly sunny. Highs in the 30s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Highs 35-42.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy and windy. Brief light mix possible morning. Few rain showers late. Lows 28-35. Highs in the 40s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 28-FEBRUARY 1)…
Watching from late January 28 into January 30 for possible unsettled weather but odds favor most activity missing both to the north and south or just a fairly minor system passing through. Fair weather for the end of the period. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 2-6)…
Unsettled weather possible February 2-4 with an air mass battle possibly setting up in the area. Fair and a little colder by February 5-6 based on current timing.

143 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast Update”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Per Taunton NWS,

    Logan had 3.0 inches at 7pm, south Boston had 5.0 inches.

    I’m sure both have more by now.

    Nantucket up to 11 inches, of pure cement Im sure.

    2. For storm viewing, would have been nice to be on Nantucket, Block Island, or perhaps best of all, Cuttyhunk.

  3. Still building up here on Woburn…more than I thought we would get. Honestly thought the line would hold Boston-south alas it wasn’t meant to be. Was hoping I wouldn’t have to shovel…that’s when having a big driveway sucks ha.

    1. The pivot is getting us pretty good. It’s about 15 miles further north than I thought. 15 miles! Not a huge error when you consider the size of the system, but it sure makes a difference for your driveway. 😉

      Again, maybe a little more than we thought, but still nothing like what’s going on to the south!

    2. Yes, the 1 or 2 flakes I observed at 4pm have become millions of flakes by 8pm. Even in Boston.

      Forgot to thank TK, so I will do so.

    1. ROTFLMA!!!

      THat was last year while he was in Plymouth MA.
      And yes I have been in the exact same place as he before.
      In fact in his production trailer when here for a storm years ago.
      I met him. He was very cordial and invited me into the truck to view
      the equipment. I liked him. he’s ok

      1. Thanks Vicki. That one is fantastic. He should send it in
        to Barry. I think I’ll ask him IF I can. 😀

      1. For sure, I’m going to guess we are around .5 or .6 melted.

        I’m curious if Nantucket or MV may have gotten 2″ melted.

        1. Did you like my son’s photo. He’s still down town.
          HE walked 1/4 mile and it snowed 1/2 inch.
          Really coming down.

          Those bands are hanging tough!!

    1. 😀
      Thanks.
      I feel I could have done better with amounts in my OWN area! Go figure. Didn’t miss by much but the band over me held on longer than I expected. The idea of the sharp cut off proved true, though I think anyone forecasting saw that coming. It was well-modeled. It came down to how much moisture could run up into the dry air and fight it enough to set up some bands and drop some heavier snow. If we didn’t have that super dry air to start out, the snow amounts probably would have been double what they ended up in the Boston area and Metro West.

  14. Random thought ….

    NFL network is playing programming related to the conference games tomorrow.

    They are showing a football life – Bill Belicheck when they had close access to him and the team during the 2009 season.

    What I found ironic is that it was one of the few seasons during this run, that they didn’t meet their lofty accomplishments of the last 15 years. They went 10-6 and got smoked by the Ravens in the wild card round. Still, a great 2 hr episode. Right now they are talking about some rookie to keep an eye on ……. Julien Edelman

  16. 5 inches in Coventry Ct and still snowing very hard. This storm has exceeded my expectations. NWS made the right call after all in expanding those warnings northward!

  17. Good evening all – been following the action through twitter and woodshill.net in the last 24 hours. Fun storm to watch evolve.

    Just to get caught up on some housekeeping, did Old Salty become JPDave? Seems like the same person, just missed the transition during my sabbatical.

  18. BTW, while you weren’t looking, we’ve had the return of the Rhode Island Snow Hole! Remember that from a few years ago?

  19. Even though I was several (ahem) inches off of Boston’s snowfall, am I allowed to mention that the NWS has a new map as of about 7:30pm. #50 ????

    I hope we get more adjustments tomorrow. 🙂

  20. I have been involved with snow removal for over 50 years and think that this week has been one of the toughest forecasts when you look at the size of the storm not that far south of us in Boston and what has evolved as the day has gone on. I think you folks have done a great job forecasting a very very difficult storm.

  21. Hello and thank you tk for updating!!! Been all around on the roads and then some the last 4-5 hours, there is a BIG difference between North Attleboro and Waltham and all points in between. I’ve personally measured and called on all measurements. As of 8:36pm, roads r snow covered, no traffic problems, the only traffic is if you get caught behind a salter or plower, there the only vehicles causing traffic backup.

    Waltham 2.3
    Newton 3.1
    Dedham 4.0
    Norwood 4.3
    Foxboro 5.1
    North Attleboro 5.9
    Seekonk 6.5
    🙂

  23. I predicted that snow hole on my previous blog 😀 lol

    Also I went around billerica, roads are snow covered but
    Nuttings lake at 1 inch
    North Station .3 inches
    My house .5 inches
    East Billerica 1.2

    Snow has stopped.
    I do not understand why the winter weather advisory was sent all the way to include Central and North Central Middlesex county.

  24. It appears it’s all winding down, judging by radar. Quickly pushing southeast, again thank the good lord we were not NYC 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  25. I think some ocean enhancement is happening in northeast mass.

    I Blew my snow forecast for the mass Pike to Boston to inside 128 area.

    I was stubborn to bring that 2-5 any further north than I did.

    Like TK said a chance of something late next week but looks unlikely right now.

    1. Gotta be honest, it appears mid 40’s mid week, then no real cold air for the foreseeable future.

      1. but a cold front moves through sometime Wednesday 40s possible tuesday/wednesday. especially down where you live. Late next week could very well be back in the 30s… Boarder line but at the moment Its unlikely to give us a good snow storm like Tk said as there is a low to the north and south and we are in the middle. We shall see

    2. CMC has a classic powerhouse northeaster late Thursday into Friday.
      You know that won’t happen. Though some social media sites are already talking about it. 😉

      1. But you know this blog will still talk about it, or think it’s going to happen, kinda like when they thought 2 ft was gonna happen back earlier this week, we laugh lol 🙂

        1. Nah we won’t talk about it like it’s gonna happen because it’s highly likely that model solution is 1) wrong and 2) won’t show up on the next run.

          It’s the social media sites run by high school kids that can fantasize about that one. 🙂

  26. Now that it’s all moving out, does anyone have predictions for tomorrow’s patriots game? I’ve now turned my full attention to this game.

        1. Keep Em crossed. Please. We will see which Payton shows up and how the refs do. Most want to see Payton in super bowl. I don’t trust refs

          1. Agree. Believe me there will be bad calls against the Pats. Funny how deflategate was all about “the integrity of the game” but Goddell can do what he wants.

    1. 3+ near the airport, 5+ further south. We’ll get official #’s in a while. It’s still snowing there.

  29. Rapidly winding down here. Visibility is nearly 5 miles. I’m going out to clean up and measure then I’m heading over to Zion on the west side of the city for a while.

    Will check in via mobile. 🙂

    1. About half of that or a little less in West Hingham despite it snowing hard for the past few hours.

  32. Looks about done in Woburn…I would guess a little over an inch? TK hoping you can give a formal meansurement at some point. At least I don’t have to roof rake.

    1. I do! Won’t make the mistake this year not doing it for the first storm. Then it just got worse from there!

  34. Closest I can come after several protected areas measured is just either side of 3

    It felt so nice walking around the yard and street. Truly nothing like the feel of a winter storm

  36. Latest snow totals reporting 7″‘ in Boston, 6″ in south Boston and a not recently updated 3″ at Logan.

  38. Streets are so quiet. Snow is so calming. I live on a major city street in Boston and like living there. But, I cannot stand car and truck noise. Snow muffles it or makes it disappear altogether. It’s a wonderful thing. Last year, from Jan 24 – Feb 17 there was almost no car or truck noise (except plows). I slept better then than at any time in recent memory. Oh, I love winter and snow.

    2. If you like it quiet and here a snow plows, you should move to farmland, I’m not saying this to be offensive Joshua, I find it that most would rather have a bustling city?

  39. So, Bob Copeland was correct in his assessment. And, we should give Tim Kelley (the other TK) someing credit. Early yesterday he pointed to the South Shore and Cape as being potentially in the 6-12 plus range.

    As for Patriots against Denver, I’m concerned. The Patriots have trouble winning there. Other teams have difficulty, too. And, there’s the issue of the refs. Finally, nobody should discount the Broncos defense (pass rush) or their running back duo. Still, I think the Pats can eke out a victory, say, 24-23, in the closing seconds, on a 56 yard field goal.

    1. 🙂 🙂 my attention is on patriots game now!! I’m actually watching NFL network and that’s all there talking about, is the Patriots game!! 🙂

    2. Mr. Copeland has been forecasting this area for about 50 years. He’s seen it all. I’m not sure if he was forecasting that amount for the reason it happened or not, but he got it essentially right by the #’s. 🙂

      The orientation of the precipitation pivot got me in that area. I did well in most areas but I underestimated that belt around Boston by 2 to 4 inches easily.

  40. Some snow totals…..
    NYC / JFK 28″ as of 7pm
    Washington Dulles 28″ as of 7pm
    Baltimore downtown 25″
    Philadelphia downtown 22″

  41. 10:03 and still going here. Vis up some more to about 1 mile perhaps 1.25 mile, but
    still snowing steadily and accumulating, but at a slower pace.

    Will measure before the news

  43. I’ll be junk for the game by the time I get out of here
    Tomorrow UGH!!!!! Maybe if it stops snowing I’ll have a shot . Serious question what happened to that dry air for Boston .

    2. 16 miles out in the harbor at the harbor buoy, the wind ended up maintaining a direction of 060 until 8 to 9pm.

      It only recently backed sharply to 030.

      I do wonder if that band of heavy snow over and near Boston got some assistance from that convergence. Further, perhaps additional moisture was added in due to the above normal sea surface temperatures.

      I have NO idea if this is what it is, but throwing it out there.

  44. For the patriots game, its going to be close and defense will determine the outcome.
    bill should have sent the team out on wednesday to get use to the altitude.

    1. Not true!! It’s been proven it takes many weeks to get used to the altitude, no excuse if they lose.

      2. have you been to Denver??…. I know from my mom telling me and My dad telling me about it takes a good 2 to 4 days to get use to the elevation. They both have been there . My dad for skiing and he raced Just to the west of Denver which is even higher in elevation. Acemaster that is true about being totally use to it.

      3. Not sure if true or not but every time they go there, I hear the same….should have gone earlier. And results so far……

  45. I really feel like the only way the patriots lose this game is the refs. Will see I hope not, but I’m very concerned god dell has some input. Phantom calls?

  46. Now for my favorite part of winter…plow guys milking the system (no offense to any plow people on here). Guy has been down my small street for 30 minutes scraping pavement for a an inch or so of snow. When we got almost 5″ last week it room 10 minutes.

  50. Probably the most impressive area of this storm was Nantucket, which verified blizzard criteria by the way.

    Wetbulb temp remained above freezing the entire event, not a drop of rain. Even right now at 36 degrees it is still snowing.

  51. What is blizzard criteria. Back in the day temps had to be down in the lower 20’s to make Blizzard criteria I think ?? Anyone ??

    1. National Weather Service defines a blizzard as a storm which contains large amounts of snow OR blowing snow, with winds in excess of 35 mph and visibilities of less than 1/4 mile for an extended period of time (at least 3 hours).

      Truth is that it does not need to be snowing. It can just be blowing snow.

  52. JP snow measurement: 6.0 inches

    Not sure what Logan came in at, but this was a nice little storm. Sure we
    didn’t get the block buster totals, but a 6 inch snowfall over a short period of
    time ain’t too shabby and THIS WINTER, I’ll take it and be very very happy.

    Now let’s get the BIG ONE in here. TK please see what you can do. Thanks

      2. He’s right. There was a snow band over his area for a long time. The city is spread over a fairly wide area and I’ve seen measurements from reliable observers ranging from 3 to just over 6 inches.

    1. It turns out the elevated snow amounts for Boston were fairly narrow. The max amounts were 6 to 8 inches (which ironically is what Bob Copeland called for – he should play the lottery). On either side it dropped off by a few inches fairly rapidly, especially to the north and northwest. If there was a surprise in this event, that band was it.

      Hope you find the energy to finish up and get out of there at a reasonable time. The good news is you have a break in terms of snow for a while now…

  59. Just curious, how did Mark Rosenthal do forecasting amounts? It didn’t occur to me to check out his website.

  60. Tidal gauge in Boston Harbor showing tide currently at 2.2 ft above normal in Boston Harbor.

    Hopefully the wind will back some more and ease in the next several hours.

    Probably one heck of a sight around noon time today at Cape Cod Bay bayside beaches. This water is being piled up in that concave shaped Bay.

  61. It didn’t help us much last year 🙂

    Today on January 24th, Boston now gains back 2 minutes of sunlight per day.

    Just over the next 7 days, the max sun angle will climb from 28.4 to 30.3 degrees.

    As sunsets have already been gaining quickly, sunrises now will occur 1 minute earlier each morning.

    After around 2 months, the sun rose again yesterday in Barrow, AK

  62. Wow, 6.1″ at Logan. Some of us owe the HRRR an apology! I’m still scratching my head a little bit, I guess it just came down to a slightly farther north storm track and the orientation of the snow shield that TK talked about. Will try to get a final measurement here in a bit, before heading north to school. Glad I got to be here for this one!

    It certainly looks quieter around here for the next 7-10 days at least. Due for a quiet period I guess though- it’s been active lately, even if not super snowy.

    1. That’s the problem with HRRR. You never know. You just never know.
      It completely nails something, then is a piece of crap for 3 events. Inconsistency.

    2. Every model had an issue of one kind or another leading into this. A friend of mine was talking about the various ones and how they were off. I’ll see if I can find his post and summarize…

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