Sunday Forecast

177 Comments

8:17AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 24-28)…
Looking back: The storm did MOSTLY as expected, but I was too low on my snow numbers for the immediate North Shore through Boston and its immediate outskirts, as well as my own area in the northwest suburbs. A pair of persistent snow bands in these locations while the snow shield was quasi-stationary on the storm’s pivot added more snow than I had forecast.
All that remains: Other than any snow cleanup, what lingers today is one more round of coastal flooding at this morning’s high tide in areas prone to it.
Looking ahead: A much quieter week of weather is ahead with fair and chilly weather today and Monday though a weak disturbance will bring some clouds across the region tonight. Milder air dominates Tuesday but with cloudiness and a risk of a spotty patch or 2 of freezing rain/drizzle mainly northern MA and southern NH first thing in the morning as a warm front passes – not a widespread and dangerous situation, then a chance of rain showers ahead of a cold front later on. Fair and cool for midweek.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Clouds from the west late. Highs in the 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Wind light W.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs in the 30s. Wind light W.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light freezing rain/drizzle southern NH and northern MA early. Scattered rain showers afternoon. Lows 25-32. Highs in the 40s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 25-32. Highs 35-42.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 29-FEBRUARY 2)…
Periods of cloudiness and remote risk of light precipitation January 29-30 as systems pass by in a split flow (one passing to the south with the subtropical jet stream and one to the north with the polar jet stream). Fair January 31. Another period of unsettled weather possible to start February as a frontal system may be nearby with mild air trying to push up from the south while a cold high builds across eastern Canada.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 3-7)…
Weak weather systems possible around February 4 and 6 otherwise a generally quiet weather pattern expected during this period with temperatures near to above normal.

177 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

    1. 40s. You were the kid that always tried to sneak the extra piece of candy, weren’t you? 😛

  4. Thanks!
    Blue sky and 43 degrees in Lyon. Almost 3 hour delay last night at Logan with lots of de-icing but eventually made it out. Runways closed for a couple hours but reopened around 11. Made it though! Now I just have to find a bar with American football! Glad we have early game, 9:00 here…

    1. I think the streams remain split and we’ll be in between systems, much like many other ones this Winter so far. The storm we just were on the edge of was a bit of an anomaly in that it was just far enough north to get part of the area and the cold air didn’t get pushed away, but rather was trying to enter the area.

  6. Went downtown to Atlantic Fish for dinner last night and thought no one would be there. It was packed!

  7. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Tornadoes are ranked by the damage they cause using what scale?
    A. Fujita Scale
    B. Saffir-Simpson Scale
    C. Beaufort Scale
    D. Enhanced Fujita Scale

    Answer later today.

    1. I want to say A but will go with D. Are you all going to tell me D was to trick me? Sad enough. I should know this

  8. Thanks, TK…
    And thanks for all of your hard work this last week on the storm!

    Everyone enjoy the snow and the game and your Sunday!

    GO PATS!

    1. ANCHORAGE, Alaska (AP) — A magnitude-6.8 earthquake knocked items off shelves and walls in south-central Alaska and jolted the nerves of residents in this earthquake-prone region. But there were no immediate reports of injuries.

      The earthquake struck about 1:30 a.m. Alaska time and was centered 53 miles west of Anchor Point in the Kenai Peninsula, which is about 160 miles southwest of Anchorage, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. About two hours later, a magnitude-4.3 aftershock hit the Cook Inlet, the agency said.

  10. Thanks everyone for a job well-done on yesterday’s storm!
    It sure is a beautiful Sunday morning 😎

    1. I’ll give you the 48 for Tuesday down that way. Next weekend? Probably no 50. But if that boundary is a little north of where I think it may lie, 50 would not be out of the question sometime in the first few days of February. Not a forecast at this point, just a possibility.

  13. Easily has 6″ drifts on my driveway…just got back in. I must still be burnt out from last winter because I am saying bring on Spring ha.

  14. Good morning and thank you TK. That storm was so difficult but extremely interesting.
    Snow everywhere. Big pile at the end of my street. All I can hear is the sound of
    snow blowers.

    Heading out in a few and back for lunch and THE GAME. GO PATS!!!!

  15. I realize we only had a couple to a few inches of snow where I am up here in the Woburn area but big storm or small, I love driving around on a weekend morning after a storm. There is nobody out except a few plows. On my usual Sunday morning trek with Mom between her church and visiting Dad’s grave and going grocery shopping and taking her to pick up her McD’s sandwich and coffee, the roads were wide open. Even when I got to McD’s there was nobody in the drive thru and it’s usually pretty packed.

    A bit of a breather for me today in terms of not having as much to track weatherwise, so it’s 5 hours of Steely Dan boxed set leading me to game time while I catch up on some stuff in here. But yes you know I’ll be looking at the maps. If you think I’m nothing like Jp Dave, looking for exciting things down the road to track, well you are incorrect. I have it in me too. 🙂 I guess the difference between him and me is that I can get excited over a line of cumulus clouds on a dry cold front. Right Dave?

    Thanks for everyone’s thoughts and observations yesterday. There are a lot of lurkers that read this blog for information as well as a little entertainment, and during storms to find out who is seeing what and see what the thoughts of both the mets and amateurs are. It’s all of you that make this place what it is. Thank you again. 🙂

    I hesitate to do this, but I’ll make predictions for the AFC & NFC Championship games…

    AFC
    New England 31
    Denver 17

    NFC
    Arizona 44
    Carolina 24

    1. Thank you TK. Don’t agree with 1 pick. Pats looks reasonable.
      But, there is NO way Arizona beats Carolina. When I first looked at it, I reversed it and thought you had Carolina winning. 😀

      Tk, this Blog is the best. THANK YOU once again for putting it together and for all the work you do here!!!

      No, I do NOT get excited about a line of cumulus, UNLESS it’s moving in
      opposite directions than the cloud layer above it then I do.
      Like a Middle layer moving SW to NE and Cumulus off of the ocean moving
      NE to SW. I find that way cool. 😀

      Right now I am excited about the game. I am so blessed to have a wife that
      enjoys the game as much as I do. She has her Tom Brady Patriots Jersey all
      set to wear today for good luck. 😀 😀

      1. My wife is a football nut. You try to walk between her and the TV in the living room on Sunday and you might have to dodge a soda can or a laptop mouse, or worse if it’s the Pats playing… Otherwise, she’s wicked nice. 🙂

    2. I am with you TK. Arizona beats Carolina. Thanks for allowing us to have this blog and all you do to keep it going.

    3. Agree with your picks but pats will win by more than that unless the refs want to bust us up. Carolina is done.

  16. Hmmm Euro wants to deliver some snow around 2/2 from a Northern stream system. LONG way out there.

    Also, Euro and GFS bring the 1/29 system MUCH closer than previous runs, BUT
    still OFF SHORE. Something to monitor “just” in case. You never know.

    1. We’ll get something both days because on the 29th I’m going to a hockey game in Lowell and on the 2nd I’m going to the Bruins game. 😛

    1. All the snow already melted here in North Attleboro Aidan. Take a short ride down 95 and see. Like a beautiful spring day today :).

      1. 🙂 no not yet, though from the sun being out, and other indicators we’ve gone from 6 inches down to about 4.5 in just this amount of time. By this weekend if not sooner. 🙂 enjoy the game

  19. *** NOTE NOTE NOTE NOTE NOTE ***

    If you come to the blog and see a completely different format briefly, I’m just testing something on my computer. It will be back to this format shortly.

  21. Looks like you all got more than expected! Love seeing those headlines. You just never know!

    We also ended up with about six inches of snow here in my part of North Carolina. Problem is, they don’t plow anything! So everything melts and refreezes. Ugh!

    GO PATS!

    1. I think many areas came in close to what was expected. The areas that were expected to get nothing, got nothing. There were 3 areas that troubled me, personally, as a forecaster. I had to go up on the #’s after the storm started in the South Coast region (not totally surprised given the tight gradient). I was too low (as described above) in a couple areas from the immediate Boston area to Metro Northwest and the North Shore. Tough forecast. But I want to get it right all the time. Impossible to do. I will never stop trying. 🙂

      It should be mild enough down there the next few days to get rid of everything. Let’s hope!

  22. It is going to be a close game. or one team will have a lot of points, with the other getting only a few. Defense will determine this game

      1. YEP who knows what is going to happen. I think its going to look lopsided at first and then end up being one of the best games played in this rivalry

  23. Our friends at the government put out their updated seasonal outlook the past Thursday but it was kind of lost in the shuffle of the upcoming storm at the time.

    You can see they are still heavily in favor of a rapid shift from El Nino to La Nina just by looking at their maps. Their overall theme is the same as my feeling going forward: Coming out of El Nino Winter, the heat is on for Summer 2016, then we rapidly head downhill toward a cold end of Autumn and start of Winter 2016-2017. Also, the theme of 2016 appears to be continued DRY. So if that is right, our drought will only worsen. Again, this is all speculation based on what is known about the atmosphere and oceans.

      1. Let me see now. Today is 1/24. 2/4 is Umm 11 days away.

        SLIM and NONE and SLIM just left town or something like
        that. 😆

        I post these so we follow-up with subsequent runs. If it keeps showing up, well then we may have something to watch.
        more often than not, it goes POOF on the very next run.

  27. Diamond Hill and Mount Hope, and the nearby hills. They are the cause of the infamous RI snow hole. MYSTERY SOLVED! 😉

  28. Thanks TK. 6.3″ was the total in Wrentham. The Charlie/Rhode Island hole might have cost us an inch towards the end. Not a wet/heavy snow, but much denser than the last event we had which was total powder. Most of that stuff just sublimated/blew away in the following days. This will be harder to get rid of, but the coming warmth should do a decent job.

    In Plymouth, NH now. Driving up 495, it was a pretty sharp cutoff in snow cover not too far north/west. Right around Boxboro was when it dropped off to almost nothing. Practically bare in the Lowell area. A progressive increase in coverage heading up 93, but nothing impressive, even here in Plymouth it’s just a few inches.

  30. Tweet from Ryan Maue
    Next storm modeled by ECMWF 12z is stronger but further off Mid-Atlantic coast for Friday. Fingers crossed.

  31. Here is Eric Fisher tweet about Friday
    Friday continues to look more interesting. The next storm to watch. Enjoy the mild week before it.

  34. Gazing into the crystal ball…
    February, mild except 1 or 2 very strong cold interludes. Not all that stormy but the pattern would support another 1 or 2 large scale events. There may just be not a whole lot of Winter weather left, but when we get it it would punch hard.

    1. Interesting…Not liking what I hear. Why don’t we just move into Spring?
      What the hell!

      Hey, question for you.

      Your season total was 25-35 inches for Boston, correct?

      How much of that included any snow, if any at all, for December and January.
      Or is what we have so far pretty much as you expected?

      Curious.

      Oh and are we still on track for your 25-35 inches? Are you leaning low or high?

      Sorry for the barrage of questions. Inquiring minds….

      1. They are sitting right around where I thought they’d be. Boston’s biggest storm of the Winter lies ahead of us.

    2. Was looking at that. It looks similar to what happened one week ago. However, the guidance did not pick up on last week’s until about 36 hours ahead of the event. This is way sooner, which means it will probably not end up like that. 😀

  40. Tweet from meteorologist Ed Vallee for late week storm POTENTIAL

    Eastern New England: I would not sleep on this 1/28-29 storm. Storm likely, track big question mark

    RE: 1/28 storm. Watch where cold front boundary sets up. Thats where this storm will follow along.

  42. Are Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan still back at the hotel ?

    Why play 2 yards beyond the first down marker ?

  46. I was doing a little admin work and noticed that we are under 700 comments away from 200,000 total comments on the blog since its beginning on 12-26-2010. 🙂

  49. Ok, well Denver has the 17 that I predicted. Now all we need to do is shut them out in the 2nd half and score 22 points. 😀

    1. Brady needs a BB attitude adjustment. He has that look that is never a good sign.

      And the manning I was nervous about seems to have shown up

  50. Can you say DENVER DEFENSE. They are COMPLETELY shutting us down.
    Does NOT look good. Lets us hope BB has one of his classic 1/2 time adjustments.
    If not we LOSE! No doubt about it. SOMETHING has to change or Brady will be
    killed. He’s already hurting and bleeding.

    C’MON Pats. Let’s get going in the 2nd half.

  53. 18z GFS says NO. Long long way to go. But for now it keeps the streams split and no sign of any inverted trough.

    2. Not going to lie, some of the 12z euro ensemble solutions show a very similar idea to the 18z GFS for Friday.

  54. That should have been a late hit on Brady. Hoculi was looking right at him the entire time. Not why the pats are losing but I def think there’s something to the refs being impartial.

    1. Agree. It should have been a call on the lewd act by Miller. The refs need to see it and call it. And you are right. It isn’t why we are losing but still not right

    1. Exactly nearly word for word what son in law said.

      And may I add that my grandchildren have a whole new vocabulary…..some in part thanks to their grandmother

        1. True. My what ifs were to point out there were many as there always are. In the end, the best team wins despite the what ifs…..and injuries and anything else

  58. They did not deserve this game but their season was amazing. So Manning goes to the super bowl for perhaps his last time.

    1. And the manning commentary will be nauseating up to the super bowl. He won’t stand a chance against whatever team comes out of the NFC. Truth be told, I think the pats would have a hard time against either NFC team too. Oh well. How long till spring training??

      1. Funny thing is that all I heard all week was manning didn’t stand a chance against Brady. It is why the game depended on which Manning showed up…..and as we saw, which Brady. Hoping there is a huge fix to the running backs….

  59. Points for the patriots
    O-line is a major one.
    pats needs a running back
    Pats need to keep the front 7 in tact which is going to be hard this year.
    Patriots were hit with the most injuries of any other team. Patriot fans should be proud of this team.

    I think a similar thing to Ray Lewis season is in the making. Also there were some bad calls.

  60. For all the Pats struggles, if you hit the first extra point, it probably would be 20-20 going into OT.

    That ended up being a huge miss.

    Too bad from someone who has been so reliable.

    1. 100% agree. And momentum would have been on the side of the pats going into OT. The better team won however.

      1. If the whistle hadn’t been blown when they had the challenge..if the lewd had been called 15 yards and first down. But there are always ifs….they simply didn’t play until the last four minutes

  61. That extra point miss was the key. Make it you don’t go for two and game more than likely going to OT. Going for it on 4th and 1 Pats kick the field goal and make it that last drive is for the win.

  62. One comment on the game and I promise I am Done!!

    Patriots O-LINE SUCKS!!!!!
    Broncos DEFENSE IS AWESOME!!!!

    End of story. I don,t give crap about the what ifs and so on.

    They lost because of the Denver Defense. Brady was on his ass all night fighting for his life. You CANNOT win under those circumstances. He was Brilliant to be able
    to accomplish what he did.

    GAME BALL to GRONK!! he was SUPER HUMAN.

    There done. We’re ONTO TO NEXT SEASON!!

  64. Someone tried to post some charts from the 18Z GFS run. I couldn’t get the links to open as they wanted a password. SO here you go

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2016012418&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=252

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2016012418&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=264

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016012418&time=72&var=ASNOWI&hour=276

    Now I am going to keep count. This is TWO consecutive runs. A better sign than
    the 2nd run going poof. Let’s get a string going. 😀

  65. Bad and weird things happen in Denver (eg, Gostowski’s very unlikely miss). Not a good place to play. Noisy, high altitude, always an excellent defense that’s able to pressure the QB. It would have not been a guarantee had the Pats played at home, but it would have been a much better bet. Patriots should have won a winnable game against the Eagles, Jets, or Dolphins.

    It’s on to spring training.

    1. More model Mania from the 18Z GFS.

      At 384 hours, yes a full 16 days out, it has an interesting feature
      with a Miller-A system sitting in northern Florida poised to move up
      the coast.

      Surface

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016012418/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_52.png

      500MB

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016012418/gfs_z500a_us_53.png

      250MB

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016012418/gfs_uv250_us_53.png

      More evident on the 500 than the 250 is the pesky SPLIT FLOW,
      so we’ll just have to watch and see if this also goes poof. generally speaking
      depicted systems that far out NEVER materialize. But after that game, I need
      something to look at. 😀 😀 😀

      1. Thanks for the models, JP, we need something to look at even if it is a split flow. I have a splitting headache.

        Btw, did anyone notice Jamie Collins yawning before the game? I’ve never seen an athlete yawn before a game. I realize Collins had a decent game in some ways, but he also blew coverage of Owen Daniels twice. Not blaming it on his yawning, but I found it strange to see a Patriot yawning 2 minutes before kickoff.

        1. Joshua, I DID take notice of that and wondered what
          the bleep was going on?????

          Was he up partying? Not enough oxygen due to the
          altitude? OMG, I sure hope it wasn’t boredom???

          1. He was dehydrated and said he was shocked as he always practices proper hydration. He said he was so mad that it happened and will do more but he said he does what he always does . Nice interview of players on 5th quarter.

  66. Not much to add on the Pats. Just not good enough, outplayed. O-line terrible, but Brady not great either. Denver’s defense deserves a ton of credit too- one of the better defensive units of all time. Our defense really stepped up in second half, lot of good players there, hope they keep that unit together for next year. But unless they get a decent O-line, they won’t be able to compete for a championship. I think there’s a good chance next year will be Brady’s last.

    1. I agree with much of what you said, but I’ve have heard year after year after year, from back in 2011 that that was Brady’s last year. And we see what happened 🙂

      1. Scary thought. Charlie and I agree. Did anyone feel the earth shake 🙂

        I totally agree with WxWeathers comments. Except I do not think next year is Brady’s last.

  67. On the weather front. I was just outside watching the grand boys play in the snow. It is a lovely night. Actually quite comfortable temp wise

  70. The late week system has some potential. I see a lot of “in between” solutions on the models right now which I think are incorrect. Either the streams stay separate, and a weak wave passes far out to sea, or they phase, and a stronger low impacts the coast. Doesn’t look like a huge snow event even if there is phasing though. Lack of cold air/no high to the north could cause mixing issues, and whatever forms will be very fast moving.

    By the way, although the operational ECMWF is more in the phasing camp, the parallel, “upgrade” version is not. Although, frankly, I’ve not been impressed with the parallel. The high resolution is cool, very cutting edge for a global model, but it’s often been inconsistent and plain wrong. For most of this past storm, including right up to the end, it was even farther south with the snow than the current version.

  71. re: the system for 2/4

    Looks like there may be some phasing for that one.
    Or at least it is beginning to look like it. I don’t see that West to Northwest
    flow on the upper charts up in this neck of the woods.

  72. All I will say is there are always a certain folk that will have the shoulda coulda woulda attitude, it’s human nature. Patriots didn’t have there A game tonight. I’m pissed! But at the same time you can’t win them all. Patriots will be in the mix again in 2016/2017. PS Broncos are going to lose by 2 td’s. Mark my words!!! 🙂

    1. But then pats were going to win today…..nation’s hearts wanted manning but it’s heads were certain it would be Brady.

      I’m not pissed. I think being pissed is human nature. They had a great season. I love our team win or lose. You are right. They didn’t play the game. But then you are also correct that no one can all of the time. It is life. In the big picture, and since it turned out to be, I am glad Manning gets his …probably…last super bowl.

      1. I would say am I disappointed by the result, but proud of the team and would like to see what they could accomplish with less injuries.

  73. The mix of me missing the first hour of the game due to freaking work. People saying the pats were going to win.
    Pats o-line sucks and needs to be remade with the right side in particular being fixed.

  75. tough game, but I did not see any quit from the Pats despite some serious head winds (figurative) w/our O-line vs. their D

    Denver had the #1 defense in the NFL and a great defense usually beats a great offense (and our offense was not great today)

    The Pats defense regrouped after getting torched for two TDs in the first half, pretty much shut Denver/Manning down and made a number of huge stops in the second half

    Rooting for the Panthers in Super Bowl 50, respect Manning, but do not want to see Peyton or Denver win another title

  76. Agree with those who say that the Denver D and our O line cost us the game. In no way did Gostowski’s miss cost us the game. It was early and we just couldn’t do it after that. If he had hit the extra point yes maybe it would have changed the complexion of the game….for better or maybe worse.

    1. Well if he hit it we would have went into OT after that last TD…obviously no guarantee of a win. Not taking those two fields goals and going for it on 4th down unsuccessfully didn’t help either.

      1. You can’t say that. Who knows how the game would have turned out. It’s like saying if I waited 5 minutes the other night when I played powerball I would have won. Absolutely not a given.

  77. I’m hearing some people are tweeting some pretty despicable things at Gostkowski. We are lucky to have him as a kicker. The Broncos were the better team plain and simple and I like how all the Pats players took it on the chin and showed class to the Broncos. I am disappointed, but grateful to be a Pats fan.

  79. That southern stream HAULS on the 00z GFS thus no capture once again.

    Curious if it keeps similar features in tact later in the run, which tells us how that model is handling this pattern. That is a clipper around 2/1 and then a stronger phased system around 2/4.

    A progressive pattern remains progressive.

    2. The 00z GFS is practically the 18z but differs in jet stream speeds. Clipper for 2/1 is much faster, weaker, and further north.

      The rest of the run remains to be seen, but differences will likely widen.

  80. Some of my colleagues are up in arms because a certain broadcaster is already posting snow accumulation maps for a storm that is so far only a product of human programming. Gee where have we heard this before?

    I have also heard that said broadcaster has said on the air that most models don’t agree, yet they have snow in the forecast anyway. 😉

    Hey, don’t blame me, I’m just reporting what I heard! 😀

  81. Hmmm

    Watched channel 5 tonight. Wakum said snow for Friday and then showed model
    output of low passing benchmark?

    Where on earth did he get this?????????????????????????????????????????

    I am NOT making this up. I watched it on the broadcast.

    1. It’t not the Euro. Not the GFS and NOT the CMC
      So where does he get this stuff. When I saw it, I said to myself he
      is full of shit. after news I loook here.
      I already looked at this afternoon’s Euro. Not there.
      I just checked GFS and CMC and not there.

      Then WHERE???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

      Please, someone enlighten me.

      Thanks Good night all

      1. That’s ok. The 00z GFS has moved the low for February 4 from a track south of Long Island to a track between Lake Superior and Hudson Bay. 😀 😀 😀

  83. Tweet from meteorologist Ed Vallee about that late week POTENTIAL
    0z Euro Ensembles still interesting for Friday. Watch guidance today for a potential NW shift. Lots of moving parts.

  84. This tweet from meteorologist Bernie Rayno for same late week as well
    The diff between out to sea Friday and up the coast Friday is getting razor thin. Biggest threat is New England, but close in Mid-Atl too

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