Monday Forecast

139 Comments

7:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 25-29)…
High pressure brings fair weather today. Weak low passes to north late Tuesday and its cold front will slow down offshore Wednesday. Low pressure moves up along this front later in the week. Right now think this week be a close call but stay mostly offshore.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Clouds from the west late. Highs in the 30s. Wind light W.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind light W.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light freezing rain/drizzle southern NH and northern MA early. Scattered rain showers afternoon. Highs in the 40s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 25-32. Highs 35-42.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of mix/snow southeastern MA late. Lows 18-25. Highs in the 30s.
FRIDAY: Mostly to partly cloudy and windy. Temperatures steady in 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 30-FEBRUARY 3)…
Fair January 30. Periods of unsettled
weather possible to end January and start February as a frontal system may be nearby with mild air trying to push up from the south while a cold high builds across eastern Canada.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 4-8)…
Weak weather systems possible around February 4 and 6 otherwise a generally quiet weather pattern expected during this period with temperatures near to above normal.

139 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  2. I know I am late to the party…any news on Friday? My phone tells me snow one day then none the next and back to snow yet again.

  4. Thank you, TK.

    Serious risk of flooding in the mid-Atlantic from the very rapid melt. Aside from many high piles of dirty snow, I think most of the snow on the ground is gone by the weekend from Newport News to Baltimore. I’ll be at a conference in Alexandria on Friday to test my `hypothesis.’

    As TK often says, records are meant to be broken. Well, another one fell today in the Netherlands: the warmest day ever recorded on January 25th. Belgium and the UK are also reporting record high temperatures.

  5. Good morning and thank you as always TK.

    RE: Friday
    6Z GFS is closer.
    0Z Euro has a graze with an inch or 2 along Eastern sections.

    Is it really possible something is up for Friday?

    What’s up with the 4th????

    I guess we’lll know more with the 12Z runs. Let us see.

    Mean while, it is a beautiful day out there. It was chilly this morning, but not bad due
    to lack of wind. It gets into the 30s with no wind, it will feel quite mild.

    Did anyone hear Tim Hassleback today?

    I can’t stand him and his wife either. I wish they didn’t have him on the show
    at WEEI. He was ripping Brady a new one. He was ruthless and relentless!
    Very sad commentary, indeed.

    1. Don’t like Hasselbeck, either. But, Brady had a terrible first half. He looked out of sorts. This wasn’t just about the Broncos defense. Both interceptions were inexcusable and Carson Palmer like throws. The interceptions cost the Patriots the game. I think of Brady as the best decision-maker in football. Yesterday, during the first half, he was as bad as I’ve ever seen him.

      1. Having time to think about this ….. This was the 2007 Super Bowl vs the Giants again.

        Superior pass rush disrupted the pass heavy offense all game. In a way, it further depresses me, because they didn’t learn how to in game adjust having experienced that. Then again, perhaps they didn’t have the personnel. To me, Brady gets a big pass here. Can’t make plays if the rush is at you in 2 seconds.

        1. Because Cam Newton can escape the pocket, he will buy those extra few seconds his receivers need and he also presents the run threat Brady could not (though that was one pretty good run by him)

      3. Joshua, the look on Brady’s face said it all the first half. Oddly, he is very transparent. It is the same expression we saw in the other games that we lost. I was yelling at him to get himself together from the start. I don’t know what it is but it is definitely there.

  6. Thanks TK !

    Slightly after 7am this morning, I could see the nearly full moon just above the western horizon, the sun just clearing the eastern horizon, all combining with the winter landscape to provide a beautiful scene.

  7. It’s nice to already be seeing a change from last year.

    It was these 3 next school weeks that had 7 snow days.

    In Marshfield last year, we cancelled this Monday through Wednesday, then lost Monday and Tuesday the following 2 weeks. Then came the February break. It then seemed to take a good 2 weeks to get back into the flow because we literally had 8 days of school over a 30 day calendar period.

    Hoping for June 14th this year. Today is already our 91st school day of the year. 🙂 🙂

    1. I know what you mean, Tom. We, at Middleborough High, have semesters like college. We are giving our finals this week. Last year, I think I met my new students 3 or 4 times before the end of February.
      Try having parent-teacher night talking about students you don’t know!!

  8. Thought this was interesting…

    “How much snow fell on Washington D.C. during this past weekend’s massive snowstorm? Officially, 17.8 inches. But the actual answer may never be known.

    The Washington Post reports that the snow-measuring device used by a team of weather observers at Washington’s Reagan National Airport was buried in the blizzard, leaving them with no way to record the true amount of snow for hours on end.

    The error promped the National Weather Service (NWS) to announce that it will be looking into the procedures used at Reagan National, where the official snow totals for the nation’s capital are recorded.”

    1. I’ll make one statement and you can take it from there or completely leave
      it and laugh.

      The Mob, Mafia, Cosa Nostra or what ever you want to call it is Alive and
      Well in 2016, despite what you may hear otherwise. MUCH more sophisticated than in the old days, but there just the same.

      They have their hands in everything and with the money involved with
      Professional Football…

      Take or leave it, but there it is. Laugh at me if you will. I don’t care
      an no one can convince me otherwise.

      1. Wouldn’t rule it out. Brady looked deflated (no pun intended) the whole game…no fire…I even commented at one point it seemed like he was being forced to play bad based on how he looked. I love me a good conspiracy theory 🙂

        1. My Wide felt exactly as you did.
          She is very tuned into those things. I can’t get away
          with anything!!!

          Yes, something was up.

      2. I cannot think of any time I have believed in “conspiracy” theories. I will only touch briefly here but may shoot you an email because I am interested.

        I think we are thinking alike but with different drivers. I thought it was more internal and Brady refused to buckle last year which I believe led to the deflategate idiocy because it was idiocy and seemed to have a very real plan. Bottom line is we have a history of all of a sudden playing diametrically opposed to the team we are.

        Although last night son in law (who is anything but a conspiracy theorist) mentioned the betting in Vegas on the first half. He simply said it made him uneasy. But that is more in line with your theory.

  13. The one thing that could undo Carolina is cockiness. They were almost too smug following halftime of the Seattle game. Then, they had no opposition from Arizona last night. They’re going to have their hands full with Denver. Quickest defense in football. Good on coverage, and good against the run. Don’t count Denver out. This will not be the Superbowl of 2 years ago. If I wanted to make some money and was a betting man I’d pick Denver, but I don’t gamble. It’s a good thing given my notoriously bad weather predictions! I may be better at sports predictions because of the human element, which I kind of understand.

      1. Rooting for the Broncos defense to stop the relentless offense of Carolina. Happy to see Peyton win in his swan song.

        1. I’m definitely inclined to agree with you. I think I said here last night (or maybe just thought it as I am apt to do) that I like seeing Payton in what will probably be his last super bowl. Thanks for helping me make that decision. It will also make it a bit more interesting as I doubt my son in law will root for Denver.

    2. Agree. Cam had grown on me but he’s overly cocky for sure. Like yesterday – after a TD – a few fights broke out in the end zone between the two teams meanwhile Cam was right there doing his endzone dance, not aware what was going on.

  14. How will this blizzard affect your stock market investments ?

    I’ve got to think that oil and gas supplies should see further increases in reserves over the next week or two since there were probably 2 to 3 days where travel was substantially lower in a big part of the northeast.

    The market seems to be predictably boring right now. Oil rises, stock market gains …. Oil declines, stock market tanks.

    It should be interesting to see the weekly crude oil and gasoline reports on Wednesday of this week.

  15. 12z GFS is a whiff for the late week storm threat and the 2/4 storm is a cutter – over Lake Huron! Other than a clipper on 2/8 with some coastal redevelopment that is probably too late for us, not much cooking through 384 hours.

  16. 12z Canadian clips eastern MA late week with some light snow (rain Cape). It’s got a potent noreaster though on 2/4 and something else cooking in the Gulf right after that.

  17. GFS ensembles also not biting on late week storm threat. Probably can stick a fork in it if the 12z Euro trends southeast as well.

    Ensembles do show an overrunning event next week – question is which side of the boundary we end up on…

  18. re: 1/29
    Pretty much a swing and a miss with the Euro as well, however, the Euro
    does hint at a bit of an Inverted trough with some limited precipitation
    in Eastern sections. Will something come of it? Stay tuned.

    Here’s what it shows

    http://imgur.com/L1sakcg

  19. I watched a few frames from satellites across the country and I can see the systems moving like everything is going to come together this weekend for a big storm. Of course it might have been some bad fish but who knows. Have a happy day.

    1. Tomorrows 45 degree day will melt a lot of the snow. Going skiing Thursday at wachusett, how r the conditions?

      1. I heard they are closing down due to all this warmth and the expectation for major snowmelt tomorrow………

      2. They’re in spring mode, Charlie. Sun angle, melting snow, birds migrating back. It’s pretty much over. Ski lifts are coming down shortly for summer maintenance.

  24. Milder more than cold the next 2 weeks, but a lot of variable temps and limited snow chances. Sometime in February the polar jet is going to grab an air mass from the Arctic Circle and yank it right down into the Great Lakes, Midwest, and Northeast.

      1. Run for cover, Ace. When that polar vortex rears its ugly head TK’s going to let the WHW community know with big, bold, huge banner headlines: MILLIONS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THREAT FROM COLD BLAST!

    2. Can we hold you to that? AND if it does occur, any guarantees there
      will be SNOW with it or because of it or whatever??

  25. Mark, thanks for sending the snow coverage map. It’s a weird map. Anomalous to say the least. No snow cover at all in parts of the Berkshires, on January 25th (given that it’s not been a very mild January, the lack of snow seems even more odd). Lots of snow in the NYC area as well as the Cape. And not a lot in central and northern NE.

  26. So far this winter has been an easy one to deal with. It’s snows, then by the time it snows again, the snow we had gotten is gone, no build up of snow. Much much easier IMO. And unlike last year the 1st 10 days of Feb look mild unlike last year. Just trying to be positive.

  27. 18Z GFS still has 1/29 flying by us OTS. 😀
    Sure doesn’t look like that wants to change.

    Only the slightest tiny hint of an inverted trough. Model run showing ZERO
    precipitation for our area.

    Will watch, but it does not look very exciting to say the least.

    What’s twitter world looking like on this?

  28. I called my uncle in Richmond VA and he said that the snow is more than 2 feet deep. The main roads have been plowed but side streets have not. I asked him about the schools and he said that they won’t be reopening anytime soon. There were power outages but fortunately my uncle was not one of them.

    I have other relatives in the Mid-Atlantic and left messages. I suspect they are OK. 🙂

  29. Regarding the Patriots, they got rid of good players over the years who really could have helped them yesterday…all to save a few bucks. Also, their last playoff win on the road was against San Diego in 2007.

    1. That’s ok, we r spoiled. We won the Lombardy 353 days ago. Even with that loss yesterday the Patriots are breaking records from this 2 decade dynasty that no other team has done. They will be back in the mix again for the 17th straight season. It’s really unbelievable. Who knows 2 outa 3 superbowls would be nice. I think them as the best dynasty been has been long done. And it’s not close. 1st Super Bowl 2001-2015 IMPRESSIVE!! That discussion is in the past. They can only add to it. 🙂

  30. JPD…not much on Twitter about Friday. I did see this though:

    NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston · 34m34 minutes ago
    Even if ocean storm remains well offshore on Friday, some snow still possible due to upper level energy.

    Eric Fisher says next widespread snow in the northeast appears to be around Groundhog Day.

    1. The 18z GFS is showing that potential overrunning event nicely next Tuesday 2/2. The question will be which side of the boundary we end up on – cold or warm. We are threading the needle on that run.

      Also, :re Friday, sounds like he is hinting at an inverted trough setup…

  32. I’m going to say again: It will do something Friday because I’m going to a hockey game in Lowell, and it will do something on 2-2-2’sday because I”m going to a hockey game in Boston. 😛

  33. Eric Fisher on Twitter;

    Latest Euro Weeklies suggest that if we miss significant snow on Friday with passing coastal, likely not much until at least Feb 7-9.

  35. If the big on happens in February I hope I am not in Florida.
    If that low could have tracked a little bit further north what have gotten into the heavier snow band CT shoreline NYC Long Island had. Oh well 5 inches I will take considering how this winter has been.

      1. You just can’t help yourself, can you …….

        JJ, have a great time whenever you go ! We’re going next June, never been there in summer.

        1. You sure you want to do that?
          I was in Palm Beach on business in September years ago and I about DIED!!! It was BRUTAL!!

          1. Oh, I hear you.

            One of my daughters dance in Orlando, so we’ve turned it into a camping trip after that finishes up. Have electric hookup and the camper has AC, so it should be alright. I’m already worried about all the Lightning. 🙂 🙂

        2. Of course have a great time, but if he loves snow so MUCH!!! why go in Feb? I’m not here to be rude. Geez don’t be offended smh. It’s like me going to Winnepeg in January, why do that? I don’t like cold and I don’t really like snow. I’d rather have palm trees and warmth. It’s just a question.

          1. You’re a piece of work.

            Did you ever consider that February may be the only time he can go?

            We are well aware you dislike Winter. You’re also well aware that JJ happens to love snow. You worry so much about what other people do and how their opinions differ from yours that you must suffer some serious stress.

            And be careful how much you “smh”, you might hurt your neck. 😛

          2. I know your intent is not to be rude. I guess you just don’t get when your doing it. TK over and over and over has pointed out to you about needling people, so I have nothing new to add.

          4. I honestly have no idea what the hek you folks are talking about, smh,, everyone is offended. What’s going on? I’m not being disrespectful. What’s going on?? Seriously???

            1. Think about it. You’re the only person that this stuff seems to occur around. And how many times do you have to preface your comment with “I’m not trying to offend” or “I’m not being disrespectful”. If you feel that you need to state that, then you know that your comment may very well be either of those.

              I’ll give you an example: A few people get excited about a snowstorm threat. You’ll be the first (and only) one to tell them that “most people” wouldn’t want that storm. They hate Winter. And they don’t know why anybody would root for snow.

              Ok. 1) They know that. and 2) They don’t care. It’s just an opinion. Just like you having your opinion about disliking Winter and loving the warmer weather. I don’t think anybody has a problem with your dislike of Winter. Bottom line is, you live here so you have to deal with it whether you love it or hate it.

              It’s not necessary to remind a snow/Winter loving persion that they comprise less than 50% of the population. We know.

    3. JJ I join the other respectful folks on here wishing you a perfect time. I know exactly what you mean by not being away from home if there should be a storm here. I love enjoying storms and would hate to miss one no matter where I am. But I know your vacation will be great.

      1. Charlie this is called a weather blog and people get excited about weather here..go figure…if it was sunny and 75 the blog wouldn’t be what it is. So it’s no surprise that JJ or anyone else on this blog would be disappointed about missing out on a storm. JJ hope you have a great time.

    1. Don’t worry. Tomorrow there will probably be negative snow cover there. Upper 40s. Heat index might hit 50! Kind of muggy too with all that melting snow adding moisture to the air. Good thing it’ll be mostly cloudy or I’d be issuing a SUNSCREEN ADVISORY.

        1. It is?! Wow I had no idea. I thought I started a sarcasm blog!

          Well, what’s the weather gonna be, weatherman? 😀

  39. one of the four teams that I never want to get to the superbowl.
    Denver, colts , ravens and Jets. Then the weather is not behaving 🙁

    1. They better do well at home. I’m going to the game tomorrow and again next Tuesday. 🙂

  41. I am actually going down to spend a few days with my mom and step dad. There renting a place in The Villages for the month of February. While there will be visiting Disney World which is only an hour from there.

    1. Enjoy jj, I hope you have a great time! Really! This is actually the perfect time to go. Should be around 80 degrees. Maybe a thunderstorm, haven’t checked the local weather. Hope you don’t miss a snowstorm here. 🙂

  42. Mac’s cousin who lives in Flemington NJ just emailed me. They are still not shoveled out but are safe and warm. They got two feet.

    2. Someone in VA sent a time lapse of the entire blizzard. It’s going around FB. Awesome stuff to watch!

  43. Only 8 weeks till the NFL draft!! And then can’t wait till late July when Patriots mini camp begins. 🙂

      2. I use to live for baseball but find it too slow. My biggest gripe is after every pitch the batter walks off the plate and adjusts their gloves, etc. Who makes gloves that can’t survive one swing? Ha.

      3. I will just say, and this is fact. More New Englanders watched 8 out of the 16 regular season Patriots games than both 2007 and 2013 redsox World Series. The patriots had a 49.5 share game 1. The redsox World Series had a 39.4 share. Yesterday’s playoff game, 49.3 Million watched that game. half of that watches the World Series in America. It’s not close, and I’m not being rude.

        1. This is why shank shaunnasey is a patriot hater, because he never thought another team would be more popular in Boston or New England than the redsox. He was wrong!! Most know shank shaunnasey for this

          1. It doesn’t matter to me whether people watch football or baseball more. They’re just both games in which the players are overpaid.

            Hockey is my #1. 🙂

            Go Bruins!

            Yeah, they’re overpaid too, but not nearly as much. 😀

  44. weatherman, I watch the pats much more than baseball, I do have to say though how many of those patriot fans going to stay when the pats are not good….probably not as much. Red sox on the other hand had 86 years and had a very large loyal fan base.

    1. Agreed!! But there are many many of the younger generation that love the patriots. They even have Patriots day every Friday at many schools for the last 3 weeks. I just think even in my travels around to Bermuda London Texas and Florida, the Patriots are very very popular. Everyone talks about them. They are well established.

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