Tuesday Forecast

100 Comments

7:22AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 26-30)…
Weak low pressure will pass well north of southern New England today and tonight. Its trailing cold front will pass this evening then slow down offshore Wednesday. This system will bring some cloudiness today into Wednesday but no more than a passing rain shower this evening. A pair of systems, one in the polar jet stream passing through the Great Lakes and another with the subtropical jet stream passing south of New England Thursday night, are expected to stay separated and not really interact until beyond the region Friday. This will prevent a significant storm and just result in the risk of a bit of snow shower activity. A weak area of high pressure will bring fair weather Saturday.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. A late-day rain shower possible mainly northwest of Boston. Highs 43-50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. An evening rain shower possible. Lows 33-40. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH and gusty.
WEDNESDAY: Lots of clouds to start, then increasing sunshine. Highs 36-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Sunshine during the day. Clouds moving in with a risk of snow showers overnight. Lows 18-25. Highs in the 30s.
FRIDAY: Mostly to partly cloudy and windy. Risk of snow showers early. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-25. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 31-FEBRUARY 4)…
A few periods of unsettled weather, more cloudiness than significant precipitation events, January 31 through February 3, though with variable temperatures will have to watch for possible mix/frozen precipitation at some point. Should turn dry and colder at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 5-9)…
An overall fairly quiet pattern with variable temperatures.

100 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  4. Thank you, TK…

    A year ago right now, we were waiting for the first flakes in the first blizzard/storm of our historic winter!

  5. Good morning and thank you Tk for that wonderful boring weather forecast.
    Can’t you do better than that? Rustle us up some action. 😀

    Operational runs keep any Norlun activity on Firday to a bare minimum if any at all.
    Ensembles show the possibility of a bit more action with it. Most likely NOTHING
    happens but a few snow showers, but we’ll watch just the same.

    1. I listened to the folks from NYC and DC on air this morning. I had flashbacks to last year. Even I am fine with the perfect storm we had last weekend. Of course I’d be fine with anything but I figure we had our share and then some and cannot expect all the fun 😉

    2. What is our NWS doing here?????

      US National Weather Service Boston MA
      2 hrs ·
      [Thursday Night into Friday]
      Majority of the latest forecast data downplays a big storm, but there’s still potential for outcomes as the two pass in relative proximity to one another near and around Southern New England.
      We’re keeping an eye on it as we get closer to the timeframe as always and our best advice to you would remained tuned to the latest forecasts.

      From their discussion, I picked this out:

      THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
      INVERTED TROUGH LINKING THE TWO DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE NE-CONUS PRIOR TO PHASING DOWNSTREAM /THE 26.0Z EC IS PICKING UP ON THIS TO SOME DEGREE ACROSS E-MAINE/.

      1. Yes but the range of what that trough cam produce runs from just clouds to a half foot of snow. We know these features. 🙂

  7. It’s not snow …. But, there’s potential excitement for weather on the GFS in the long range and I know TK alluded to a cold blast down the road and wow, does that look like one around February 10th !!!!!!

    Of course, time to change, but something to monitor.

        1. I laughed out loud last night when JR on 7 said of those systems in regard to them not fully merging in time, “So it looks like they will remain just friends….without benefits.”

          Yes he did say it. Anyone else catch that? 🙂

          2. I love his sense of humor. I did not hear it but sure can believe it. Sadly, I always thought he and Pete made a great team. Both are wonderfully quirky.

        1. Yup, me too. Still hoping though, but u\highly unlikely.
          Oh well, it’s a pretty cool representation of an inverted trough. I love it.

  14. Message to TK.

    Need you to route the B’s in over the Ducks tonight. Ya know …. like an actual win at home!

    1. Now I really want to check out the Euro.
      Probably will be dashed when it agrees with the GFS, but one never knows. 😀

        1. Just busting you. They don’t tell you what the colors mean. I “presume” blue is cooler and orange is wamer
          and red is much warmer. If that is the case where is
          it coming from?????????????????

          3. This is the weather channel, BUT I’ve seen a map close to this in other places the last 1-2 weeks. Wonder if tk agrees?

  19. The temps have pleasantly surprised me today.

    I thought they might underachieve a bit (mid 40s) due to the snowcover in southern New England, but I guess not.

    Logan at 49F, with some towns touching or exceeding 50F.

  21. SO happy there was no shooting. That’s a relief.

    re: Norlun

    12Z euro snubs Mr. Norlun and says no thanks. Not even close.

    So most likely that piece of crap CMC is the outlier and it comes down
    to NO inverted Trough OR if there is one, it sets up shop well North of us.

    But, we shall keep watching just in case. 😀

  24. Early spring feel today…when you can hear the last of snow dripping away. Will miss it once we get hit in February!

  26. Did any of you hear about this?

    http://www.11alive.com/story/news/2016/01/25/weather-channel-meteorologist-killed-parking-garage-accident/79304598/

    Eric Fisher posted this:

    Eric Fisher
    21 hrs ·
    Nick’s desk was next to mine at TWC, and he was just one of the brightest and nicest guys you could ever imagine. An excellent Meteorologist and my thoughts go out to his family and my family at TWC. Only 39 years old. http://www.ajc.com/…/driver-killed-in-midtown-parkin…/nqBsQ/

  27. I read about the tragedy involving the weather channel met. Very sad. It’s unclear what exactly happened. The authorities say he suffered a heart attack while driving. This doesn’t explain the speed at which he was driving in the parking garage. I guess a heart attack could cause a person to press on the accelerator, but it remains a mysterious accident.

  28. Hoping one of these storm threats happens after the mild spell early next week.
    Tweet from meteorologist Ed Vallee
    Digging into long range data now. Pretty strong cold signal for days 11-15 across the Great Lakes and east. Tracking storms 2/6 and 2/9

  29. Charlie, it does feel a little like spring today. I agree. And, you know what, I can even tell a difference in sun angle. But, winter is far from over, as you know. Two and a half more months of snow chances and bursts of cold air. One thing we can say with near certainty is that the cold and snow we get won’t be anything like last year.

    1. 2 in a half more months? Ekk we will be working on lawns in 4-5 weeks if all goes well. I plan on early March starting in southern Ri, this is nothing new. It’s the same thing ever year. Enjoy the day!!! 🙂

      1. Note, two and half months of “snow chances” and “bursts of cold air.” Not continuous winter. I know we get some decent spring days in March and early April, but it’s usually nothing to write home about. I do understand that in your business you do a lot of spring work even when the calendar still says it’s winter.

    2. Agreed, this winter has been pretty tame thus far….TK has me excited about next Winter’s prospects, but I don’t want to rush into it, time already goes by fast enough as it is

  30. Charlie, the map you linked was just a re-colored copy of NOAA’s 3-month outlook that was issued last week. It doesn’t mean 3 warm months in a row, but it means they expect above normal temperatures over that 3 month period. They will likely average slightly above normal in our area, skewed down by some pretty strong cold shots in February and March.

    1. It’s a pretty safe bet since the CMC is the only one really doing the NORLUN thing, and we know that this model tends to over-develop anything low pressure related, and all the other models have little or nothing in terms of inverted trough until the systems are well beyond this area, we’re not going to get involved in any significant snow due to these systems joining up.

  32. I realize the same “debate” occurs here every year when we get to late January. “Winter’s Over” vs. “Winter’s Not Over”.

    I think by now we know enough about the variability of the weather around here to say it can go either way, and that the calendar dictates that Winter, in fact, does not end until we enter late March. Like it or not, and stats will verify this, snow-wise we are at the half way point of the Winter weather season on February 2, not before, not after. It’s February 2. Some years the pattern will say “Ok, we’re done, early Spring”, and some years, quite the opposite. Most years it falls somewhere in the middle. We’re also well aware that the higher sun angle in the late weeks of Winter make it more tolerable outside and melt snow more quickly. Physics at work – amazing. It happens every year. That’s EVERY year, without fail. Whether or not there is snow to melt has to do with the weather pattern. Some years no, some years yes, some years a whole lot. Hmm think back to 2015. A whole whole lot. The weather is the weather. The seasons are the seasons. We mark our activities by them. They are quite dependable in overall character yet fickle in daily behavior. And thank goodness, because we live in New England, and that’s just the way it should be.

    So we can skip the debate this year because it’s all settled. 🙂

    1. Understandable tk, but I think with daylight growing and mild weather, many become excited for spring. I understand there are a few that like cold and snow, but I would even bet, especially after last year are looking forward to spring. I understand though it’s a weather blog. All types here. 🙂

      1. A matter of fact I went to the mall to do shopping, all the winter clothing was on clearance. And I bought some new spring clothes. It just puts a smile on your face. 🙂

        1. Happens every year.
          Actually I was beginning to think that you were in charge of stocking the merchandise because the stuff is always out way in advance. 😛

        2. Charlie, they were gone this time last year too. My kids looked for blanket sleepers and, in one case, a size up snow suit for their kids and they were gone. It has nothing to do with weather and everything to do with sales.

      2. Even the Winter / snow lovers become excited for Spring, at least most of them, because chances are despite loving the Winter season they enjoying being outside in nice Spring weather too. We’re not all exclusive to just one kind of weather. 😀

          1. 99.9% of the Winter lovers love Winter when its here. But they love other seasons as well. Some may not like heat, etc., but they love more than just Winter. 😀

  34. TK – great comments on winter. We seem to have this conversation with every season. Everyone here is a person who enjoys weather. As such every person should know the start and end of the seasons.

    Winter doesn’t mean snow every day. Winter doesn’t mean below freezing temps every day. Winter does mean it is more likely to snow than spring, summer or fall; but that doesn’t always hold true. It can snow in two of those seasons.

    As far as changing seasons, I do not think I am alone when I say the change of a season is exciting. New weather events. New types of weather. I’ve also said it is a bit sad as it means leaving something behind. That may be just me.

    Charlie, what I am not sure you, in particular, understand is that this is a weather blog. Folks on it are excited for any type of weather event. You hate snow, and that is all right. But others love snow and rain and wind and thunder and lightening and heat and humidity and that is all right too. Repeating…it is weather and this is a weather blog.

    Note I am not being critical of you as you have a right to hate snow. I am just explaining that others here do not hate snow or any type of weather and should be afforded the same right.

    1. Totally I just voice my opinion strongly, if some, and many do say on here that I’m crazy that I count the days down to spring. I’m not offended. That’s there right. It’s ok 🙂

  35. I was watching the national news, areas in the Mid-Atlantic are having fits cleaning up after all the snow. Streets unplowed, narrow streets, no school yet this week ….. I have compassion for them after what we all went through last February.

    1. Mac’s cousin in NJ just got plowed out today.

      I thought we made a huge mistake here opening roads rather than clearing around traffic. Seems they did same.

  37. The latest NWS discussion still talks about the possibility of an inverted trough.

    We shall see about that. 😀

    THERE IS ALSO THE RISK OF AN INVERTED TROF DEVELOPING SIMILAR TO
    WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED LAST WEEK. BEST H85-H7 FGEN AND LOW LVL
    INSTABILITY IS FOCUSED ON THE MID COAST OF MAINE AT THIS TIME.
    HOWEVER…THESE ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST SPATIALLY AS
    A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT COULD EASILY BRING IT CLOSER TO THE E COAST
    OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE…WILL BE MAINTAINING LOW END POPS
    FOR THE E COAST SIMILAR TO THOSE PRESENTED BY THE PREVIOUS
    FORECAST.

    1. Yep I think even I would have trouble there. I can’t decide whether it would be because so many others are depressed or if I would not like it.

      1. Morbid place. The darkest side of Russia. Fascinating nonetheless that the city is home to 170,000 people.

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