Thursday Forecast

141 Comments

7:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 28-FEBRUARY 1)…
High pressure brings fair weather today. A pair of low pressure systems will pass by on their northeastward stroll across the atmospheric dance floor on Friday, one to our northwest, one to our southeast, attempting to join hands in the start of a ballroom tango, but before they can launch into their first spin together they will be beyond the area, leaving us with minimal impact, i.e., a little rain and snow activity. Fair weather returns for the weekend as well as Monday along with a warm-up as the jet stream lifts to the north and high pressure builds to the south.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind light SW.
TONIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 25-32. Wind light S.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. A period of rain Cape Cod. A few rain/snow showers elsewhere. Highs 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH shifting to NW and increasing to 10-20 MPH late.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-25. Highs in the 30s.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 40s.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 2-6)…
A weak cold front passes early February 2 with a few rain showers then fair weather. A warm front/cold front combo passes through February 3 as a stronger storm passes through the Great Lakes into southeastern Canada and will likely bring widespread rain showers as it is quite mild. Mostly fair weather and a colder trend sets up February 4-6, though a few snow showers may occur at times.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 7-11)…
Briefly moderating then possibly turning much colder later in the period with a few snow showers.

141 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

    1. Looks much like my neighborhood of Dorchester as well. Not surprised at Charlie of course but am surprised Eric would say that and not qualify it by noting the Boston neighborhoods. 😀

  9. The GFS seems to be struggling with potential cold air surges in the medium and long range.

    If my recollection is correct, the 00z Tuesday and the 12z yesterday (Wednesday) were bullish on cold air intrusion.

    Seems the 00z today is not.

    Wonder if El Nino should be accounted in with this back and forth, when anticipating what might happen. If so, I’d think the El Nino effect might hold the deep cold in check somewhat.

    I checked on the current status of El Nino and it hasn’t really eased dramatically. It surely isn’t as strong as back in mid to late December, but anomalies from regions 1 to 4 are still running 1.4, 2.5, 2.5 and 1.5 C above normal.

    1. Always the way with Senior Nino.

      The way this Winter has gone, it would NOT surprise me one bit to see
      the Cold HEAD OFF AT THE PASS!! Hope not.

      TK usually is NOT WRONG about such things.

  11. The official snow maps use data taken from “official” ob sites. They only record 1 inch or greater as “snowcover”. If their measuring site is bare or patchy it goes in as zero. These locations are rather isolated and often not representative of the area overall. So indeed “no snow” does not always mean no snow.

  12. Yesterday we hiked near Crocker Pond in Westminster. The trails were completely covered in snow and ice. But, the Whitman River was almost ice-free.

    1. Still no great shakes, however. Also beginning is depicted as RAIN and end
      as snow.

      Predicted snowfall up to 1/2 inch. Big Woof.

        1. That’s what I am afraid of…. However, hoping for a suprise
          that increases the intensity and makes it rain.

          NWS was talking about a warm layer at 925 MB, which
          would require some decent precip rates to overcome.

        2. I agree , no accumulation out of this one. For the hell of it I say the long weekend 2/13 we get a storm because it’s the next 3 day weekend and it will get messed up just like the last one MLK did . At least I like this weeks check lol.

          1. That’s the time frame Tk said to be on
            the lookout, so we shall see.

            I want to take my wife to Dinner that weekend
            for Valentine’s Day. We’re planning on 2/13
            Last year of course on 2/14 it snowed like Crazy.
            We drove to a restaurant in Norwood through
            the worst of it. 6 inches of snow accumulated
            on the car while we were dining. I LOVED IT!!

  17. Quiz: Why is Lake Quannapawitt in Wakefield mainly ice covered while Lake Innitou in Woburn, which is about half the size of Lake Q, and at a lower elevation, still over 50% water?

    1. Possible answers I can think of are:
      1) Lake Innitou isn’t as deep
      2) Lake Innitou receives more water flow from rivers and streams keeping the water constantly moving
      3) Lake Innitou is more polluted thus the pollutants cause a lower freezing point

  18. Yeah JP Dave it is but light on accumulation from what I could see. I think this could have a little surprise to it we are living on the edge around here.

  19. Is this a quiz? I presume you know the answer and are throwing it out to the group
    as a quiz.

    I don’t know either body of water, but my guess is that the smaller body of water
    is much DEEPER than the larger body of water and thus the entire depth has
    not yet cooled sufficiently for ice to form 100% coverage.

    Of course there could be other reasons, for example, perhaps the smaller body
    of water has MORE vegetation growing in it, thus producing some limited heat
    that would inhibit ice formation somewhat.

    Perhaps there is something in the water like dare I say, sewage or other inductrial
    chemicals that would retard freezing.

    Does the smaller body of water received much more sunshine than the other?

    I’m just throwing it all out there.

    But please do tell us. 😀

    1. Your assumption was correct. The smaller Innitou is deeper. Takes longer to reach the uniform temp needed before freezing.

      BONUS QUESTION:
      What temp must the lake reach throughout before the top can freeze? It’s not 32F.

      1. I “think” it is some crazy number like 36 Degrees. Can’t remember
        the exact number, but it’s something like that. 😀

        1. Nope, I didn’t remember correctly, but I was in the ballpark. I now do recall the exact number and I remember it Centigrade. That was the problem. 😀

      3. That is one of the main reasons it takes for ever for
        Jamaica Pond (down the street from me) to freeze. That
        sucker is a Glacial Kettle pond and is about 60 feet deep.
        just looked it up. Official depth is 53 feet. Close enough.

      4. Can’ wait to find out this answer. I had a backyard skating rink 60′ x 30′ and 4″- 12″ deep for 12-14 years and this question always fascinated me. I learned to wait for the one night of single digit temps to simply freeze the whole thing solid. Otherwise it could take forever. I would think this answer would vary with the depth and surroundings of the water; temps are never the same throughout, so I am lost as to how to guess at this.

    2. And I like Ace’s response of Rivers/streams flowing in.
      My experience with that is that there would be an area near
      where it flows in that would remain open or not freeze as thick, but
      generally would not affect the freezing of the rest of the body of water.

  20. With the ice freezing, lets put it this way I put plant life in the series of answers I put in for a reason. The marshland behind my house was not always a Marshland. Back in the 80s it was a lake. My dad has pictures of them kayaking during the summer and then ice skating and ice fishing on it in the winter. Then a auto shop moved in the area, started throwing their crap and stuff in to it. Over time the increased chemicals Increased the plant life, which made it so that it was harder for the ice to form, this is also why it is now marshland over just this small amount of time. Ice still forms but it is never thick enough to go on or do anything with.

  21. 39F is the answer. At that temp, water is its maximum density. The lake stops “turning over” and begins to freeze from top down assuming the cold is sustained enough.

  22. My car was parked beneath a maple tree in my driveway this morning and noticed maple sap on windshield. Seems the trees are messed up with this pattern we are in.

  23. 12z Euro says stick a fork in any thought of a Norlun. Has ZERO precip
    for tomorrow.

    Looking ahead I don’t see anything I like.

    Oh well, how about Spring?

    1. The 12z GFS is equally depressing. We flip to a sustained cold pattern after next weekend but then turn very dry. The position of the trough over the eastern US sends any storm activity well to our east out into the Atlantic. You can see that first storm threat potential on the 10th that TK was referring to but unless the trough sets up differently than depicted, we are going to missing wide right on these opportunities, at least to start.

  24. I also find it comical that the GFS and most of the models for that matter have been steady and consistent already for several days with a cutter through the central Great Lakes middle of next week. Why is it that they can sniff all the cutters out with great accuracy 10 days in advance and modeling the snowstorms even just a day or two out in many cases is so difficult!?

  25. One of the bloggers on American weather emailed Dr. Judah Cohen about his thoughts for snow chances the rest of the winter and this is what he responded:

    “IF we get the polar vortex split like i am expecting, i think it will be a WILD END to winter here in the Northeast”.

    Asked if this included March, he said “Mid February to Mid March”

    1. I’m stuck in Florida February 13-18 and then leaving for Israel for 2 weeks on March 13, so I’d like all the storm activity to be February 19-March 12. Can someone make that happen for me?

  26. Regarding Judah’s “wild end to Winter”:

    I agree with him but there is a caveat. The cold is more a certainty. The snow is going to need help from MJO. Phase 3-4 the next couple weeks is not good. May change after that, rather rapidly.

  28. ALERT!!! ALERT!!!
    TK calling for WILD END TO THE WINTER! Starting in Two Weeks!!!
    Make preparations for impending snow blitz now!!!

    1. Let’s qualify that. Wild to me can consist of a few weeks of below normal temperatures, a couple big time Arctic shots, some snow squalls, and 1 or 2 snowstorms, one of which is major.

      This is not about to be mini 2015. 😛

          1. ISQDIJW$()!U*@#()!*(@#$&(!@^$&*!^@&*#$!(@#)*^!@&*#^&*!@^#*!*()@#*()!^@&#^!(@#^!()*@#^!()@#*^!*(@^#)^!@*(#^!@#*^!

            In what market is 6 inches a MAJOR STORM?
            Not here. Perhaps DC and points South.

            That’s a snow flurry.

            You are joking with us, are you not????

            1. LOL, thank you JpDave. I am tired and have parent-teacher conferences starting in 1 hour. That response gave me a hearty laugh and a bit of positive energy !

        2. Not TK and my definition is likely way different from his.

          To me, major is 18 inches +

          I don’t buy the 1 foot plus bullcrap.

          12 inches is a really nice storm, but major? NOPE.

          1. I agree for the most part. I have always gone by the scale:
            1-3″ light
            3-6″ moderate
            6″-12″ significant
            1-2 feet+ major.

            1. More or less right. But of course storm’s often have other factors besides snow accumulations. We often try to fit weather into definitions that are too rigid.

  29. Reading also on American weather that the 12z Euro Ensembles look great near the end of the run with storm potentials on Feb 8-9 and then again on Feb 11-12. Then very cold with continued favorable pattern after that. Much better trough placement on the Euro.

  30. Thanks tk 🙂

    I have to agree 6+ is major, 6 inches issues WINTER STORM WARNINGS, and probably early closing a, if not many many many cancellations.

    1. It may be a definition and TK quoted a definition, but any New Englander
      who really thinks a that 6 inch snow storm is MAJOR isn’t worth his/her weight in salt. 😀

      But I’m a crazy snow nut anyway!!!

      1. Exactly, but that’s ok 🙂 I just think many would think 6+ inches of snow is a major snow event.

  34. Here is my scale:

    Up to 4″ = light
    4-8″+ = moderate
    12-18″+ = major
    18-24″+ = state of emergency

    As far as public transit, all rail service should continue regardless of amounts. If I am not mistaken Amtrak maintained service during the Mid-Atlantic snowstorm for the most part.

    1. Lol not at you Philip,, BUT all rail services should run regardless of amounts. Boston mbta shuts down if it becomes to warm, or to cold. Not putting the city down, just stating facts. Thinking baker has the right idea 🙂 at least hoping

    2. I believe I heard some rail services shut down last week. Made me think of Boston

      I don’t remember a problem like last year and I understood the problem. It was an unprecedented amount of snow in a very short period. I still think many problems could have been avoided if Baker kept roads closed for a few days.

        1. Charlie I know you don’t understand that even third level emergency services couldn’t get to those who needed emergency care. I know you don’t know that people who needed treatments and services couldn’t get to them. I think the economy will survive. Maybe not so much those who need emergency care

      2. I agree with you Vicki. IMHO travel bans should last a good 24-48 hours in extreme storms. There is too much of a rush to resume normal traffic when it is anything “but” normal. You can’t get things back to normal in a 6-8 hour timespan.

          1. Last year we received 90 inches of snow in 5 weeks. Understandable, but in 90% of winters there should be minimal problems, it just seems to not be the case anymore, any storm under a 10 inches should not shut down a state that is certainly used to it.

            Ask any business owner if last weeks 4-6 inch snow event effected business in a MAJOR WAY. It did.

            1. Charlie did you miss that I was talking about last year?

              And ask snow related businesses if it helped. If you live in this area, there needs to be a plan B. I hate to see people struggle but in the scale of things a hurricane, severe drought, earthquake, tornado, etc are far worse.

  36. Today is the 30th anniversary of the shuttle Challenger explosion. Amazing that it has been this long. 🙁

    2. My wife called the disaster the night before.
      We watched the weather and reports from the area. She told me that
      it was too cold and something bad was going to happen. She wanted me to call
      someone. I said no way. IF something did happen, we would be arrested by
      the FBI.

      Eerily frightening when we found out it was the O rings due to the cold.

      She absolutely positively knew there would be a disaster. I freaked out at
      work the next day when I heard the news. She has this sense and has
      exhibited it now and then.

      I swear on a stack of bible that this is truthful!! No kidding around!

    3. Mac and k had just returned from a pregnancy eval of our third baby. He was in kitchen. I was standing in front of TV. I called him in saying something wasn’t right. I still get goosebumps

  37. I suppose that 6-12 inch snowstorm on December 9 2005, which was accompanied by insane winds, extreme snowfall rates, lightning and thunder, and brought traffic to a standstill for hours, cannot be classified as a major storm because it didn’t have enough snow. 😀

    Trust me, that was a major storm.

    2. My point is, it’s all relative. We can classify things by amount of snow only, but it doesn’t take so much into account, and not only regarding temperature, wind, and other weather conditions, but type of snow, snowfall rate, mixing/changing. The storms should be looked at as a larger entity and then broken down into more localized parameters.

    3. Not so sure I agree that it was a major storm. Extremely intense for awhile, that’s for sure. Lightning was shaking our building. I enjoyed it immensely. Just didn’t last all that long. It F’d up traffic big time because it all came down at once! It took me 2 hours to travel about 3 miles, but I had a 5 speed standard shift Mustang at the time and that sucker was USELESS in the snow!!!! Sun was shining by the time I arrived home.

      Plus I am never satisfied with anything (although I was extremely pleased with the 4 biggies last Winter!) That’s my problem, but I am trying to be
      objective here. It takes a lot to impress me with a Snow Storm. The one last
      Winter with the Thunder Snow (see Jim Cantore in Plymouth) did the job!!!

      1. I did, because I entered it from my phone which for some reason turned the 12 into a 10.

        There were actually some places that did get over a foot in that storm, but the wide swath was 6-12.

        1. Not sure what I got at my house. It was not a foot.
          I think it was like 8 inches or so. Still that one was nice.
          I love thunder snow!!! Always did.

  38. Dinner reservations made for Saturday evening 2/13 for Valentine’s Day.
    None available at Ruth’s Chris or Morton’s. We’re going to Luciano’s again, which
    is fine because we love it there.

    Problem. Now it will be the Winter’s biggest storm that day for certain.
    Unless my wife wimps out, We’ll go anyway!!!

    1. Luciano is great!! I take care of his property, and Blackington in Attleboro, Canovas in Attleboro, and also a small strip a trattoria Ramona in Lincoln Ri, great family!! Enjoy!!! 🙂

      2. Been there several times. We really enjoy it. Not just the food, which is fabulous, but the atmosphere is out of this world.
        And it’s not too far, about 40 minutes from my house.

  40. For me, it’s less snow amounts and more timing/resulting impact that I judge.

    About 4 weeks ago, on a very cold day, Marshfield had about 2 inches of ocean effect snow in 2hrs. It was 25F when it started, the initial dusting melted on the roads, which then turned to a sheet of ice, topped with snow. This happened between 2 and 4pm. Gridlock ensued during the pm commute. Major, major impact.

    Conversely, I remember snowstorms with a foot of snow that happened on a weekend at night and there wasn’t as great an impact compared to what I described above.

    So, I guess I don’t have a scale. It’s more of a case by case scenario for me.

  41. As for that December 2005 snowstorm IIRC Logan received a very quick 11 inches and many BPS students did not return home until 8:30 or 9:00 pm that evening. Many schools kept the kids at school until the streets were plowed. A very wise decision for a change.

    2. If I am not mistaken it hit on a Friday so there was plenty of time for cleanup when schools resumed on Monday! 😀

  42. Valentine’s Day 1942 Snowstorm = 14″

    If I am not mistaken it is still a record for Boston for that date.

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