Friday Forecast

107 Comments

2:51AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 29-FEBRUARY 2)…
Unsettled weather today but only minor event with rain and snow showers as an offshore low pressure area deepens and accelerates away to the northeast, toward Nova Scotia, while a weakening system coming out of the Great Lakes transfers its energy to the offshore system. The very progressive pattern then brings briefly cooler northwesterly wind in by Friday night, followed by a warm front bringing more cloudiness on Saturday, but leading to a spell of very mild weather as January ends and February arrives Sunday and Monday. A cold front will approach by late Monday but will set off only a few rain showers Monday night or early Tuesday with only a slight cool-down for Tuesday.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain and snow showers. Highs 35-42. Wind light variable becoming NW and increasing to 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clearing overnight. Lows in the 20s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to SW.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 28-35 early then rising overnight. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of evening rain showers. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 3-7)…
Potential record-challenging warmth with rain showers February 3. Colder with rain or snow showers possible February 4. Fair and cool February 5. A weak system may bring rain/snow showers by February 6 or 7.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 8-12)…
Trending colder. Risk of rain/snow showers early in the period then mostly dry weather.

107 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  5. Thanks, TK.

    My hypothesis was refuted. There’s still a lot of snow here in Virginia, and in Maryland, and right up the Northeast corridor to around Attleboro where it all disappears.

    I was in Baltimore just two weeks ago. Big difference between then and now.

    The snow piles here in Alexandria are impressive, but not like ours last year. It’s also much warmer here than it was in Boston last year, which means there’s a lot of water and slush around. People here generally hate the cold and snow, more so than in Boston. Of course, they’re less accustomed to storms of this magnitude. And, bitter cold is not as much a part of life as it is in New England.

  6. Thank you, TK. Overcast and a touch foggy this morning. Nearly all snow gone except the piles at sides and ends of driveways/streets.

  7. Pretty much throwing in the towel on this winter. Sure, it may snow. It may get cold again. But, there isn’t much umph. It’s a sad winter for winter people like myself. Thankfully, there are many blessings in life, weather is just a side show. But, I do look forward to my winter side show, and this one hasn’t really shown up, nor does it appear to be preparing for a real comeback.

    The mildness and predicted heat this summer are ideal conditions for the spreading of Zika. I think all of us should be prepared for this virus. Unlike West Nile and triple E, Zika appears to spread rapidly and easily among a broad swath of the population.

    1. I’m trying not to pay much attention to the headlines. In the report I read yesterday re the case in MA, it neglected to mention it cannot spread person to person which is a huge omission. We are extremely careful with mosquitoes anyway so not much more we can do.

      As for winter, I would love one storm of at least 8 inches.

    2. I am pretty much with you, but I do hold out hope as Mr. TK is usually
      spot on with his storm threats and time periods. Sure, we don’t always get
      the storm, but the threats are always there as he points out weeks in advance.

      Here’s hoping for one BIGGIE before the Winter is over. Translation:
      A biggie to me is 1 foot plus, Not 8 inches and certainly NOT 6 inches.
      I’ve already had one 6 inch storm, so another 6 inch job just won’t cut it!

      I’d like one 18 inches Plus and preferably one 24 inches plus, but those are few and far between so I may have to settle for one around 13 or 14 inches, which is still a very nice storm. 😀

  8. Good morning and thank you TK. I must say what BORING weather.
    Mr. Norlun decided not to visit, which TK said would happen.
    There isn’t much on the horizon.
    Even this big cool down has been relegated to a TK “trending cooler”. Wow that’s
    ominous. Watch out for that one.

    Some signs for a little something on the 5th and the 13th.
    Nothing looks really big at the moment. Will continue to watch, probably
    futilely.

    Blah, blah, blah and more blah.

      1. Yes, indeed. You were spot on.
        Not complaining about the forecast. Complaining about
        the weather. Most New Englanders do that. 😀

  10. Last evening I called my cousin in Richmond and she is doing OK. I asked about the schools and she said that they just reopened yesterday with a 2-hour delay.

    1. Indeed, many schools down here are still closed or delayed openings. Not sure it’s warranted right now. But, the snowbanks are still pretty high, making for some difficult walking on sidewalks and roads.

  11. Dr. Cohen says his blog will be delayed one day until Tuesday instead of Monday.
    He said lots going on with Polar Vortex etc.

    Should be an interesting read when it comes out.

    1. Wouldn’t the position of the Vortex provide COLD for us, but it also looks
      like it would shunt storms out East of us. ie wasted cold, no? Am I missing something?

      1. We need it to retrograde some. Hopefully that is what TK
        is referring to about a possible Major storm later.

        1. Indeed it is. That is what I was referring to regarding snowing coming out of cold. Trough drives the cold in, flattens then retrograde happens as short waves drop in. One of these kicks off your snowstorm.

  13. Well a positive out of this for me is being off oil for so long. I think I’ve used my furnace maybe two weeks this whole winter? Saving some money that’s for sure.

  14. Thanks tk 🙂
    I must say, the potential colder scenerio is just that, it dives more south than east, and as it moves east it moderates. At this time it doesn’t look that cold IMO. Enjoy the weekend!! 🙂

        1. Well,,, I’m not a professional, but it’s just my opinion by looking at models the so called polar vortex doesn’t get pulled down, as storms will be a bit more north than previously thought. I also,,, and this is just my opinion, it doesn’t really want to move east like it moves south, it does a little, but I believe at this time, there will be colder shots mixed in with milder ones. I also believe the ocean still plays havoc for snow lovers Boston to providence. I’m not saying snow and cold are done, but I’m saying it won’t be to bad.

          1. The models themselves have not been consistent. Looking at the overall pattern and things that have not influenced the models yet.

            1. TK, you don’t know anything at all.
              That degree is useless as is all of your
              experience. Charlie knows. Listen to
              Charlie.

              1. That cannot be more opposite than what I think, I would say I always say tk knows, it’s just my opinion

  15. So Tk your banking on this pattern change what mid February. What if it does not change and say the pattern changes early March or so than the outcome is different. Just curious .

    1. If it takes place later then overall temps are modified in comparison but snow risk would still be there.

        1. Any storm could still be quite large bit of course the later it gets the less that snow would hang around.

      2. As many on here would tell me, enjoy the next couple weeks of weather, time goes by much to fast. 😉

      3. Euro not quite in range. But at the end of the run, it shows
        something brewing in Texas and further hints that there may
        be phasing.

    1. Good slug about to move in. Problem here is boundary layer temperature.
      It is about 40 Degrees. It looks like it may come down hard enough to
      change it to snow should it start as rain. I know it is cold enough aloft, but
      not sure of 925MB layer. Just check HRRR, I guess it will be OK, so it
      looks to snow here as well. Will let you know.

      I have been busy and did not check radar, so thank you for the heads up.
      I do appreciate it.

      1. That’s a barely OK. Freezing line about through Boston.
        Likely Rain to the SE of here, if not here as well. 😀

        1. 7 Eleven right down the street!

          BTW do you ever go into that DD down at 4 Corners? I know I’ve asked before.

    1. Under 1 inch because I believe it will narrow up quite a bit before it gets here. The only thing I’m not sure of is timing so you’ll have to check back with me on that.

  22. Brief snow shower in Woburn at 3:30PM but more coming, as noted here. Might be mixed in some areas but just cold enough upstairs for mostly snow now. Coating at most on unpaved surfaces where it snows long enough. Road impact minimal, just wet. Visibility will be more of an issue for brief periods of time.

  23. First front seems to want to move through the region . Monday night/tuesday morning with a few rain showers.

    Second system, looks like it will move further north and we will be mainly stuck with a cold front with periods of rain showers Wednesday night/early thursday,

    1. Yes, and yes. There is a possibility the timing of the second front is faster. We’ll have to see.

  24. Maintaining the storm threat window of February 12-14. The GFS is incorrect with the threat for February 10. It’ll figure out timing and placement of waves eventually.

  25. This coastal storm that didn’t phase with the northern system and missed to our east is providing a lot of wet snow to Nova Scotia and Cape Breton today.

    1. It looks to me like the snow area is ever so slowly weakening and
      decreasing in coverage. Figures. AND stil not a flake here.

  29. I wonder how much severe weather is in the cards associated with this inside runner around days 4 and 5 for the Mississippi and Ohio river valleys as well as parts of the southeast ?????

        1. Yeah the Dallas to St. Louis local news has headlines on 1st spring severe weather outbreak of the season. I already had 4 friends from Dallas and 2 from Missiouri text me.

  31. There we are!!
    I was looking out the window. Nothing and more nothing and then they appeared.
    First flakes!!!!

    Not sure I’ll be able to make it home. 😀

  34. I meant to say this yesterday, but forgot, condition at wachusett were not good, skied every trail from black diamond to easy, they were like ice. I saw I jury’s galore, and 2 instances of 2 separate ambulance driving up.

  36. Here is TK’s storm system 15 days out, so why wouldn’t it be depicted as a cutter/inside runner? 15 days is a LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOONG
    time for things to change and get whipped into shape. Point is, here are the first signs of it. This positioning is NOT NOT NOT going to be the eventual track and that you can take to the bank. 😀

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016012918/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_50.png

    The strength is likely to be stronger than depicted. 😀

    Something to watch.

  37. From Channel 5, Wakum was reporting it but mentions Joe D’Aleo of Weatherbell.

    D’Aleo says this February will feature “clipper” systems from Canada that will begin to effect the Northeast. We’ll also have to keep an eye on storms coming up from the south. “We’re vulnerable to three or four nor’easters coming up, if the setup is just right,” says D’Aleo.

    In addition, D’Aleo feels the colder air that has been locked in Canada for most of the winter thus far will have an opportunity to migrate southward over the northeastern U.S. after an initially mild start to the month of February.

    He did say 3 or 4 Nor’easters. Say what???
    Says it’s 3 and they deliver 10 inches each. That would bring us to 40+ inches, nearly
    the seasonal total. Now that would be awesome! We shall see. BUT notice how
    the report ran with it, because he did say IF the set up is just right. MIGHTY
    key words!!!!

    We’ll probably ONLY get 1, the one TK has mentioned.

    Interesting to watch just the same.

  42. That snow shown on the gfs is highly suspect, Its well out by 6 to 9 days out, it greatly depends on how far south and east the ridge goes. Also the ooz gfs shows the high pressure further north and moving northeast, On the latest run the high stays put and pushes the low out to sea and keeps it weak as the polar jet sends a clipper from the northwest. We shall see.

    1. What do you think?
      Watch, the 12Z run won’t even have it. It will have the 2/13 system
      back as a Lakes Cutter. 😀 😀 😀

    2. The 5th/6th is OTS.

      The 13th storm has none gone poof.
      THe 10th is an inside runner.

      Every time I look at the models everything is Different. They are having
      extreme trouble figuring out what is going on down the road.

      Conclusion: We do NOT know. Anything out there beyond 5 days totally
      discount.

      Keep an eye on the 2/5-2/6, there is a coastal BUT most likely Off Shore.
      0Z GFS nailed us, 06GFS ots. 0Z CMC gets us, but 12Z won’t for sure. 😀
      Keep an eye on 2/10-2/14 time frame. As we get closer, the models will
      figure it out and we shall see what we have.

    3. Yes, Ocean in the truest sense. A fish storm. BUT, we should be watching
      just in case it wants to come closer to the coast. Right now I am in Camp
      Fish storm.

  45. There is stuff to watch later next week and the following week.
    Before we get there mild temps in a midweek Rainorama

  46. This morning’s NWS discussion of the 2/5 possible system:

    LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND…

    MODEL CONSENSUS IS CONVERGING UPON A POTENTIAL GLANCING BLOW TO S NEW ENGLAND OF AN OFFSHORE LOW. H5 TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE CONUS UNDERGOES A NEGATIVE TILT INVOKING CYCLOGENESIS AND AN INFLECTION POINT LOW ALONG THE NOW OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BACKING TOWARDS LOWER HEIGHTS…THE LOW POTENTIALLY COULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT FOR OUR AREA.

    Note: this is based on 0Z information.

    1. 0Z Euro for 7Pm Saturday:

      http://imgur.com/YQKsZsv

      Note same initialized data that the 0Z GFS gave us a snow storm.
      Conclusion: Go with the Euro. Watch the Euro for any possible Westward
      shift.

      Euro gives a dusting to Boston, 1-2 inches on the Cape.

      The system is fairly juicy with qpfs of about 1.6 inches over the Fish, so
      it needs to be watched just in case.

      Will there be a change with the 12Z run? More off shore? A westward shift?

      Stay tuned.

  48. Quick thoughts while I update:
    -I alluded to the late week system that everyone is watching for the 5th, except on my update it refers to the 6th/7th. I favor the later timing still.
    -The storm threat around February 12-14 is not likely to be “the big one”.
    -The cold is coming, but may just poke a few times before the full punch.

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