Sunday Forecast

124 Comments

2:46AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 31-FEBRUARY 4)…
A mild southwesterly air flow will dominate today into Monday as January turns to February. A cold front may set off a few rain showers later Monday and will knock the temperature down only slightly for Tuesday, which will be a fair weather day as a sliver of high pressure slides across the Northeast. Warmer air will move in during Wednesday but may take a while to reach the entire area as we’ll need to get that front back through as a warm front. Finally a warm surge will flood the entire region but will be accompanied by wet weather as numerous rain showers line up along and ahead of a cold front. This front will pass through the region from west to east late Wednesday, bringing drier and cooler weather back by Thursday.
TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Highs 48-55.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 50s.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 5-9)…
An offshore low pressure area should stay far enough out to sea to leave the region dry February 5. Unsettled weather develops over the weekend of February 6-7, but is more likely during February 7. Rain or snow is possible. February 8 turns dry but likely windy as a bigger storm evolves over the ocean. Fair weather and somewhat colder by February 9.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 10-14)…
The next storm threat looms for early in the period but there may be a lack of cold to work with and odds may favor mix/rain versus snow. Another stretch of unsettled weather is possible later February 12 through the end of the period.

124 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  1. So even though we have “threats” at times during the first half of February, getting into a true snowy pattern or a larger storm is going to be difficult to do. Things don’t quite line up just right yet. The second half of February will probably set up differently.

    One of the major reasons for needing patience if you want to see a decent snowstorm is something we’ve talked about: MJO. Wrong phase for good snow chances. And it’s not going into any phase other than unfavorable ones for a couple weeks. It doesn’t meant it cannot snow at all, but it means you don’t see the classic snow pattern set up. An anomaly would be the reason for any significant snow here.

  3. Thanks tk 🙂

    Liking what I see,, even long range. We deserve this for what we endured last winter. What a difference!!! 🙂

    1. We like to think of it as “deserving” and that’s fine for our own collective state of mind, I suppose. Reality is, this is just how it works in weather. It’s a completely different pattern from last year. Some of the non-professionals wanted you to believe otherwise, but all the signs were there of the vast majority of this Winter being rather easy to take. Of course we got well into last Winter with it easy in terms of snow, though January did turn quite cold, BEFORE the barrage. That was different this time. And as stated previously, the lasting impact becomes less and less as the sun angle climbs. So even though we are still subject to cold and snow, the light at the end of the tunnel is already a little larger than a pin point.

      Enjoy your day!

      1. Understandable tk, wasn’t meant to be offensive, just was at a banquet, and heard several folks talking about how we deserve a mild winter after last year, that’s all. 🙂

        1. I don’t think anybody took that as offensive. 🙂 You have a guilt complex. 🙂

          I was simply explaining the way people will view it this year, versus the reality of seasonal variability.

  8. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I’m not sure what to make of things. I can say this, the Euro it totally different
    than the GFS. If I had to bet, I’d go with the Euro right now. Once a link loads,
    click on the image to enlarge it. Enjoy.

    Right now, the Euro has a 976mb Goliath parked near the benchmark at
    12Z on 2/8.

    surface, note freezing line:

    http://imgur.com/6nCDh0X

    Although it shows a thumping of snow when all is said and done, it has a prolonged
    period of Mixed precipitation. It’s still a long way out and it can/will change some.

    precipitation type 12Z 2/8

    http://imgur.com/epcKJwU

    24 hour qpf for 2/8

    http://imgur.com/lbzVYqC

    Run total snowfall

    http://imgur.com/Bz6n7Ol

    1. Seriously though, do you think a model can tell that there will be mixed
      precipitation in a certain area 8 days out?????????????? Not hardly.
      Ocean temp is about 42 and “may” drop a tad by then.

      My guess is there may be a mix zone, but I looked at 925,850 and 700 mb temperatures and they are all modeled to stay below freezing. Surface temps
      for a fair hunk of this storm are in the mid 30’s before finally dropping
      to freezing and below.

      A couple of thoughts, “assuming” this is how it plays out and it is not likely
      to be:

      There will be some rain on the immediate coast.
      There will be a small mix zone and then not far inland, perhaps even at
      my house, it will be snow. Very wet, high water content snow. Temps are cold above, so ratio may not suffer too much. Let’s say 8:1 or so before going up.
      I have seen big snow storms with surface temps in the mid 30s. Doesn’t happen often but it can happen.

      Regardless, looking interesting. I just hope this isn’t another big tease. 😀

      For giggles, here is the GFS rendition

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016013106/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_31.png

      and CMC

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016013100/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_32.png

      Sorry folks, this is laughable and I mean seriously laughable.

      1. A model can tell whatever its programming determines given a set of initial conditions. It doesn’t have the restriction of the battle of educated guessing versus doubt to deal with.

        So yes, the model can easily tell where mixed precipitation will be in 8 days. It just doesn’t have a conscience to give a thought to whether or not what it tells will actually result, nor does it care. 🙂

        1. Precisely what I said. 😀

          We cannot sit here on Sunday and with absolution say
          it is going to be mixed precipitation a week from tomorrow. Sure based on the algorithms within the model that interprets and crunches the data it’s given, that is the result it spits out.

          Anyway you know exactly what I mean and meant. 😀

  10. Thanks, TK.

    Nice pictures, JP Dave. Thanks.

    Not liking this weather. I don’t see any real cold or snow in the short- or medium-range, just blah in between `weather.’ But as TK correctly says, it’s weather. Nothing we can do about it.

    Looking ahead, not only may we wind up with low snow totals, up north they may get less than 2011-2012. I didn’t think that was possible, but until now they’ve had much less than they had during that mild winter. The only exception is the far northeastern section of Maine.

    1. I am saying at least they been able to make snow on the mountains unlike 2012 when they barely could make any

  11. Putting all the 00z runs together ….. It’s like a political debate …..

    No agreement and a lot of things thrown out there that are hard to make sense of.

    1. I am happy to see that I am not the only one who feels that way.
      When the models spin the wheel of misfortune (BB term), go with the Euro. 😀

      1. Agreed !!

        That’s why I haven’t had a lot of weather comments the last 2 to 3 days ………. not very confident in having a feel for the pattern in the medium and long range.

      1. I honestly have to say with the way many classes work, the more possible points the better lol not always my view but college deff changed my thoughts on the matter, though rather a project or paper over a test/quiz

  13. 1st AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    When is the earth furthest from the sun?

    A. Early January
    B. Early April
    C. Early July
    D. Early October

    Answer later today

  14. 2nd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz

    Climate is a function of _________?
    A. Latitude
    B. Altitude
    C. Ocean Currents
    D. All of the Above

    Answer later today.

    1. Yes it is indeed. I’m giving a small talk at a local assisted living that day. 🙂

  16. That first quiz gives be flashbacks to the beginning of the end of my private Catholic school education nearly 50 years ago.

    Our homework assignment was to ask a parent why it is warmer in the Summer. My Dad explained it to me correctly. The next day in class, I excitedly raised my hand and stood up to give the answer. After my answer, the Sister teaching the class stared at me, hesitated, and said, “OK, but what is closer in the Summer?”

    I was stumped. I knew that the earth was closer to the sun in the Winter in the Northern Hemisphere. The teacher tried prompting me with, “Who is closer in the Summer? We are closer to Mr…” I refused to take the bait about Mr. Sun. Instead, I blurted out, “Mr. Moon!?”

  17. Hi friends:
    Hope everyone is well on this beautiful Sunday morning!

    I love to keep statistics and records on everything, sports, weather, history, etc.

    I have a list of the Least Seasonal Snowfalls for Boston that is 20 years old. It’s through the 1996 winter season.

    Here’s the Top 10 list:
    9.0 1936-1937
    10.3 1972-1973
    12.7 1979-1980
    14.9 1994-1995
    15.5 1988-1989
    17.0 1931-1932
    18.1 1985-1986
    19.1 1990-1991
    19.4 1946-1947
    19.7 1920-1921

    I believe the 2011-2012 had only 9.3″ which would rank second.

    Can you good people look at the list and see if it is correct and let me know what other years that are missing from 1996-2014?

    Thanks for any help!

  20. Tk, with ocean temps ranging in the low to mid 40’s, and the next 5 days of temps 50+ degrees will ocean temps actual rise a degree or 2? Thanks in advance.

    2. No. Sun angle too low. And sunshine will be quite limited anyway. Mixing may actually make the water temperature go down a little bit during this time.

    3. No Ocean temperatures will not, Ocean temperatures is more to do with over all ocean currents. Also the increase storm activity can mix up the ocean levels and bring up the even colder water from under

  23. Posted “Thanks, TK” earlier in the blog and got a message I am typing too fast.

    So, will try again –

    Thanks, Tk! 🙂

    1. I’m surprised I don’t get that message more often. My typing rate is between 180 and 200 wpm. 😉

      1. My predicted range was 47-54. As of 1PM temps range from 47 to 56, so generally in the ballpark with a couple outliers.

  25. RE: Storm Threats
    Waiting on the Euro.
    Gfs seems to be waking up. CMC is still snoozing.

    I sure hops the Euro does not trend closer with the 2/8 system.
    GFS has that one as 2/7, so some obvious timing issues.

    We’ll see how they sort it out.

    I SMELL and COASTAL HUGGER or INSIDE RUNNER, but NOT a CUTTER.

    I’m afraid it is going to be closer and could be an inland and up north snow maker, but
    NOT coastal SNE. We shall see.

    1. I would like the ski areas to get snow, they need it and I need it as well since I plan on going up for my brothers birthday on the 9th…hush hush if you get me 😉

  26. I wonder if the ECMWF is not TOO cut off with that low next weekend. It may be evolving the entire thing too slowly. Somewhere between GFS and ECMWF may be what takes place. I’ll check the 12z Euro to see what adjustments, if any, have been made this far out. Long way to go.

    One thing that is not surprising me is that the GFS continues to be everywhere but right on the system for the middle of the week (that is the following week around the 10th).

      1. It closes off from the flow for too long and is overly-developed by the model. When I originally thought how this system may evolved, I envisioned a brief close off but a progressive one, in that it gets picked up and moved along, so that the unsettled weather is mainly sometime on the weekend of the 6th/7th. I have not looked at the 12z yet but I have a feeling it’s going to give up on the “super storm” that it had offshore on the 8th.

  27. Now I have lost Faith.
    Euro has totally LOST the system for the 8th and brings the OTS system almost
    here on the 6th. ???????????????????????????????????????

  28. first storm this week for Wednesday/thursday evening. travels over the lakes gives us a period of rain. ( feb 3/4). Storm travels well to the south on the 5. ‘energy from great lakes moves to an area of low southeast of New england. (gives rain/snow to snow) for the 7 and 8th time frame ( quicker this transfer happens the more cold to work with). Shows another storm traveling from the lakes going south of us then travels it right over new england on the 9/10th. (this is what the GFS is showing)

    EURO: confuses me a little for the 7/8 period as it does not look like it even effect us, looks like it travels from north of the lakes to nova Scotia.
    9th/10th does not look good either.
    I do not have a great version of the EURO. Dave probably has it. Can you post the maps for the different systems. (snow maps etc)
    who is wrong, what is it going to be. I have a feeling the model I do not want to be right is going to be.

  29. Neither model is zeroed in on this scenario set for next week. They are resolving it slowly, run by run. This often is the case. When you see that much variability in the ECMWF, be very cautions with all guidance.

    1. You have. More cloudiness inbound now and the warm air for this bout is maxed. That’s why it won’t be any warmer tomorrow than it was today, in fact may be a degree or 2 cooler in some locations.

  31. Turnpike lake in plainville is about 60% ice, and it’s not super thick. I’m not going to say this is highly unusual, but typically at this time I see many ice skaters out there, even a few ice fishers. I’m sure they swapped that for the playground today. I also saw a group fishing from land, which is also a bit unusual considering February begins tomorrow.

    1. Fairly unusual. Certainly saw that in 2011-2012. Ice coverage is bad this year. In Boston, Charles will not freeze over completely. It `tried’ to in January, but failed miserably in its feeble attempt. Even if it gets cold in late February it’ll be too late, given the sun angle. In late Feb/March the sun – even on very cold days – does a number on the ice that may have formed overnight.

  32. TK, you are a migraine sufferer from time to time. Do you find it weather-related? I never get migraines when it’s clear and consistently cold. High humidity in the summer is a trigger, as is volatility (whether pressure or temperature changes). Hence, late March/April is my worst period.

    1. I have only gotten 2 migraines in the last year. One of the medications I take for my heart is also used for migraines so it is an extra benefit. But when I have gotten them in the past, many times (not all times), they have been triggered by irritated sinuses in cold/dry air.

          1. I have had to take atenolol when my blood pressure was up. Not needing it now 🙂 Headaches are my first sign of trouble.

  33. Captain Fantastic…here are some more least snowfalls for you:

    1997-98 = 25.6″
    1999-00 = 24.9″
    2001-02 = 15.1″
    2015-16 = 10.4″ (to date)

  35. Here is the 12Z Euro at 7PM on the 5th.

    http://imgur.com/nuZZghJ

    This is hugely closer than on previous runs.
    Will it come closer. As it is it give 3-4 inches for the Cape and far South Shore.

    Next threat from Euro comes about 2/11.
    Low sits in Northern Florida on 2/10. Does it race up the coast or head
    OTS. Ah that is the question, if It is even real. Who knows what’s real now. 😀

  36. Its nice hearing than it is where there playing The Farmers Insurance Open just north of San Diego. If your a golf fan like I am way wind is blowing and bit of rain conditions you would find at a British Open.

  37. I mentioned the other day the maples in my yard are dripping sap. A little early I’m near PVD airport.

  39. Have been out and about Uxbridge, sutton area last two days. Lots of skating and ice fishing. I wouldn’t go on ice but they know more than I do.

  40. The weather models will continue to have issues with timing of the different energy pieces. One thing for sure, it seems to be very hard to get the two jet streams to merge. Both look to become more active, just need them to merge which is proving difficult this season.

  43. Thanks, TK, for your information on migraines. My guess is that the doctor prescribed a beta blocker, which is effective for both the heart and migraine. They’re amazing medications, developed in the 1960s. I believe the first was propranolol.

    My first migraine was 6 or 7 years ago. I don’t get bad ones frequently (3 or 4 times a year), but am susceptible to what the doctor terms chronic migraine – very frequent (5-8 times a month) minor episodes of migraine, which I’m mostly able to keep under control. You’re correct about sinuses being a trigger. Dry cold can indeed be a culprit for some people, but in my case the pressure differences (which Vicki also alluded to) are the main cause.

    1. Propranolol – 120 mg per day. Been on this for quite a while. I have mitral valve prolapse, atrial flutter, and occasional atrial fibrillation.

  44. Necn’s Tim Kelly for the next snow/rain event next weekend seems to think snow north and a mix central to southern, but leaning mostly wet for Boston and Providence. Did say he had a week to iron that one out.

    1. I was wondering why he or anybody would try to get that specific a week out since we’re not even sure there will BE anything in a week.

      This continues to be a problem in broadcast meteorology that I really wish would stop.

      1. Totally tk!! But I’m afraid it’s all about who gets it out there 1st, and get people’s attention, then accuracy 2nd and even 3rd in some cases. Honestly tk, I believe more from you than anything on see anywhere else local or national, weather or not weather. It’s this new world we are in.

        1. Sorry we got tweets, and Facebook outlets along with news that in the end, it’s usually about scare tactics, some will use the word “potential” unfortunately that’s not a good word bc most take that as it’s coming.

  45. Answers to quizzes.
    1st AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    When is the earth furthest from the sun?
    A. Early January
    B. Early April
    C. Early July
    D. Early October

    The answers is C.

    2nd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz

    Climate is a function of _________?
    A. Latitude
    B. Altitude
    C. Ocean Currents
    D. All of the Above

    The answer is D.

  47. Ending January on a warm note …..

    Departures of +19, 19, 18 and 18.

    Probably going to finish the month around +3 to +4F at the 4 southern New England climate reporting stations.

  48. NWS word to describe the jet stream.

    BIFURCATING

    the dividing of something into two branches or parts.

    Good one and it describes it perfectly.

        1. That’s nearly a Lakes Cutter or a far INSIDE RUNNER!
          What ever term you would like to give to it. It is FAR
          from being a COASTAL.

          YUCKORAMA!!!

          still 9-10 days out depending upon which model one
          views.

          Perhaps they are “Beginning” to sniff out what
          is going on. Let’s see the changes with the 12z runs.
          Remember, the energy for this as yet unformed storm, is somewhere out in the middle of the Pacific. 😀

  50. I would like what the gfs is showing to happen honestly, Skiing areas could get some snow finally.

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