Monday Forecast

109 Comments

7:27AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 1-5)…
The month has changed but the ideas remain generally the same. A mild southwesterly air flow will dominate today ahead of a cold front. This front may set off a few rain showers by this evening as it crosses southeastern New England. Behind the front, a small area of high pressure will bring fair and slightly cooler weather in for Tuesday, though temperatures will still be on the warm side of average. The front returns as a warm front Wednesday, and eventually we’re in the warm sector again, but this time with a much better chance for more widespread wet weather as a cold front approaches from the west. Behind this front it turns cooler and drier for Thursday, though still not too cold at first. It does continue to get colder into Friday but at this time it looks like a wave of low pressure developing on the offshore front will remain too far to the east to have an impact.
TODAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Scattered late-day rain showers. Highs in the 50s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with a few rain showers around followed by clearing overnight. Lows in the 30s. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 40s. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 50s.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
FRIDAY: Coastal clouds, inland sun. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 6-10)…
Current indications are that storminess will evolve mainly over the ocean early to mid period, not impacting southeastern New England. A cold front will drop down from Canada on February 7 and may cause some snow showers. Fair and slightly colder weather is expected for February 8 and 9. A storm threat exists for the region with a risk of rain and snow about February 10.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 11-15)…
The trend is for colder weather. Still watching for a storm threat somewhere in the February 12-14 period but this is a very low confidence outlook at this time.

109 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  4. Thank you Tk for the Monday morning update and ALL updates for that matter.
    We do appreciate your forecasts and your hard work.

    We get the Real Deal here.

    It is difficult for me to look at these computer models out beyond 4 or 5 days.
    I don’t know whether it is the split flow, or the fact that I am looking at them
    more closely or it is just a bad period of operation. The models don’t have
    a clue. They cannot handle what is going on in the atmosphere.

    In the past I have seen the Euro nail a system 10 days out. Now, NOT A CHANCE!!!

    I now take each and every run with a truck load of “salt”. 😀

    2/9, 2/10? Cutter, inside runner, Hugger, coastal?
    You be the judge. I’m betting it will be inside somewhere from like passing over
    Worcester to somewhere over Binghamton, NY. We shall see. Still a long way
    out. I am NOT getting good vibes. We “may” have to wait until the next threat, then
    you know what?, we’ll be fast running out of Winter.

  5. Good morning and thanks TK! Call me crazy (or call me Charlie) but driving into work this morning I could have sworn I saw the reddish hue of the trees starting to bud, anyone else seeing that? I fully admit it could have been the sun rising over the tree tops but I saw it over the weekend too but didn’t think anything of it till this morning.

    2. Lol your not allowed to say that, if it’s not a forecast of snow, wind, or cold you are wrong, and no the sky is not blue. Lol (kidding) 🙂

    3. Ace, I thought I noticed it a few days ago but thought I was imagining it. So perhaps we are crazy. I’ll go with that over too much Charlie influence …lol (kidding)!

  7. At the Billerica common one of the flowering trees have buds on it all ready. Marshland also has some living vegetation. Not to mention, the rock wall in my pool area has plants that have stayed green all winter. The rose mary that was left out in the garden has not died and is actually very green.

  8. If we could take the GFS seriously. There would be next to nothing in eastern mass, but blizzard conditions in northwest CT /western half of mass up into southern vt and parts of the northern maine coast. Again this is just something fun to look at, This is probably wrong and will not be there the next run as the models are showing us that they can not handle active northern jet stream and the subtropical jet stream (split flows)past 4 days.
    http://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016020106/gfs_mslp_uv850_us_32.png
    fun to look at.

    1. Agree totally.

      The one thing I can say looking at the GFS and the EURO is that
      there is the “potential” for something. Track, precipitation type and intensity
      are all up for grabs. We shall see. I whimsically look forward to the 12Z
      output to see how they “handle” the conditions with this run. Should be good
      for a laugh or 2. 😀

    1. Would not surprise me in the slightest. I’m prepared for this.
      Unless my wife gets too scared, I’d go anyway, unless it is a blizzard
      with absolute white out conditions. If it is a routine snow storm, no
      problem. I would have to make a judgement as to whether I could get
      stuck or not. I’d need to know it was safe for her. That would be
      the deciding factor, not just the snow.

    3. It should be unusual, Charlie. Of late, it has not been typical to have it there either. Ski areas make snow. However, Snowmobiling, etc., where they rely on natural snow, has been difficult to our north for a good part of this decade. Sure, there has been snow, but not as much as there once was.

  15. Fascinating…watching the GFS come out panel by panel.

    Looks like it is getting interesting around the 2/8, 2/9 time frame. We shall see.
    Do we get socked OR OTS?

    1. Miller A type storm gets going in Gulf, moves over N. Florida and emerges
      off the SC coast. It looks to me as if it is destined to be OTS.

        1. Looks like we get complete phasing with this
          rendition. Now shows the system really developing.
          Could be a monster? we shall see.

          1. Don’t look at the snowfall maps, unless you want to be depressed.

            Of course, I have no faith in any one particular solution as there is so much run to run variance.

            1. Of course.
              With this particular run, we have
              boundary layer issues along the coast and then it warms aloft to boot.

              As depicted, winds would be more
              from the East than the NorthEast.

  18. To echo what Charlie said, the snow cover in north country is unusually paltry. The strength of El Nino has something to do with it, as well as the storm track.

    Winter is running out of time, and perusing the models I see only glimmers of hope for snow-lovers and very little real cold. I must say the latter has surprised me. I would have expected some brief shots of really cold air in January and February, even during an El Nino year. With perhaps one exception a few weeks ago, we haven’t had shots of cold. Nor has north country. My sister in Vermont told me that they’ve only had 1 night that reached zero (and not a single night below zero). Usually by now they’ll have been below zero at least a dozen times.

    1. Sad, very sad for folks depending on snow for their livelihood up North.
      Doesn’t really matter down here, most don’t want it anyway. But up there
      it affects the lives of many many persons.

      Not much we can do about it.

      Although the pattern is not the same, it is reminiscent of 2011-2012
      where the cold and snow was coming and it NEVER CAME.

      It is supposed to be coming still. We shall see, but we are fast running
      out of Winter. 😀

    1. TK has consistently said that mid Feb to early March may be our `window’ of opportunity. We’ve all seen many major storms during this period, and also serious outbreaks of cold.

  20. 1/2 way thru the cold season tomorrow.

    “Half the wood and half the hey you should have on Candlemas Day” (February 2).

    1. Liking this! Even if it gets cold and snowy for a while you can see the light at the end of the tunnel if snow isn’t your thing.

      1. Exactly!!! The impacts seem to be lighter too, snow typically melts rapidly even on a cold day in the 30’s

  21. My first year at trying a backyard hockey rink… two weeks of hard work during the cold spell, for I think 4 days of use… oh well, maybe next year! At least I learned a lot on what to do and not to do! Sounds easier than it is….

    Tom

  26. It might be worthwhile to take note of what has happened today with the temperatures, which have overachieved by a good 5 to 7F.

    This is probably due to a lack of snow cover and a long term precip deficit, in combination with a warm airmass.

    If there isn’t a late season snow cover to melt and the precip deficit holds (fairly dry ground), it wouldnt surprise me if hot weather makes an occasional appearance in April and May.

  29. I don’t have firsthand knowledge, but I’m not too worried about the ski areas. Plenty of man-made snow, with some natural stuff, although stretches like this don’t help. Here in Plymouth, NH, average snow depth is no more than an inch or two, with patches of bare ground.

    Pretty exceptional warmth today- serious forecast bust, it was supposed to be warm but not nearly this warm. Rising Sun angle with lack of cooling snow cover shouldn’t be underestimated this time of year. Eventually, I still think the cold (and maybe snow) gets in here, but the clock is ticking.

    2. WxWatcher, I think they hold on with manmade although certainly natural is preferable. I mentioned above that it does cause problems (and has for several years of late) for those who head north for activities that doesn’t include downhill skiing. So you are very right about the downhill areas.

  30. Euro looking more and more interesting. In fact it looks eerily similar to
    the GFS, so perhaps they are nearing a solution. 😀

    1. Well Euro does have the system, now pretty much same time period, the 9th.
      Also, the track is a little bit farther WEST than the GFS, but quite similar.

      Here it is as of 7PM on the 9th

      http://imgur.com/tT691WL

      Pressure view

      http://imgur.com/hTArMhZ

      Once again, I think interaction with the rather vigorous Northern Stream clipper system spells doom for snow lovers.

      Still plenty of time, but it is beginning to take shape.

      1. What a disappointing Euro run. No snow until the very tail end
        when the “might” be a coating to an inch, if we’re lucky. 😀

        1. My only comment is it looks like it is to close for snow, but well Inland and north country could get it, we shall see 🙂

          1. Who said anything about snow. I said
            snow for up North only with a coating to an inch
            or so here at the very end. 😀

              1. Yes but your comment made it sound like I was advertising a snow storm which is very far from what I said. 😀

  31. I can almost say now I’ll be swimming before Charlie lol. Got a good deal on a 14 foot spa/ pool seats seven .it will never go under 60 degrees and goes to just over 100 degrees .

    1. Where do you place this? In the cellar or the back yard?

      I’m serious and not giving you a hard time.

      It sounds like a super duper hot tub and it should go under or beside your deck. 😀

      1. Back yard 7 feet off my back deck centered in front of deck . It’s going to sit on a poured 18′ cement slab. It’s big . It’s a jacuzzi/ pool( four feet in pool section I believe ) my wife has been sick and she realy thinks this will help her , I was not for it. Came with everything lift cover , stairs etc lifetime on frame. I have a big yard. Just need to figure out the running cycles. Cement being poured tomorrow .

    1. That’s because the GFS track is farther East than the Euro track.
      Still a long way out there, so there is time for adjustments
      to the East, if that is what it wants to do. We shall see.

      1. Lol I had to go to foxboro and the lady told me it happened at 2pm, she said no money was stolen. But I got there at 2:30 and there were cops up the gazoo

    1. I know those ladies, one in particular I have known for many years. They are a great crew.

  35. Question for the group. So in the state of mass we get 5 sick days per year? Is it legal for employer to who give you two weeks vacation with pay to change one of the weeks to the state mandate 5 sicks days and list the second week as vacation?

      1. There are two large construction company’s have done this and I think it’s morally wrong but I am not sure if it’s illegal.

        1. I am no expert on these matters, but I would honestly
          say that it is likely illegal, but that is just my thought.

          Any lawyers among us?

    2. its more of a *#($) move than anything else but here is some of the rules
      Q: Do we need to separate sick time from our current overall paid time-off package, which starts with an accrual equal to 10 days paid during year one (excluding holidays) and increasing to six weeks (30 days) of paid time off at year four? Staff may use this as vacation or sick time, as needed.

      A: The short answer is, “No.” However, separating the time from vacation may be of some benefit to the employee. At termination, employers must compensate employees for accrued unused vacation days but are not required to pay for accrued unused sick days.

      Q: We have a PTO system that includes vacation and sick time. Right now, we list what is the vacation portion, and we add an additional 24 hours for the sick-time portion. Is that in compliance with the new law, or are we required to give more time, or do we have to document differently?

      A: You need to provide available time off that amounts to at least 40 hours per year for any employee on your staff who works at least 1,200 hours per year. If you afford that amount of time off, regardless of what you call the time off, and if the employee can use the time off for sick leave consistent with the statute, you are in compliance. However, you need to explain to the staff by means of your written policy that they can use the time in their bank (including their vacation time) as sick time under the same terms and conditions as required by the law. You need to tell your staff that the time off you are giving them is intended to comply with the sick-leave law.

      Q: If our policy currently allows for one week of vacation and three sick days, is it OK to state in a revised policy that this complies with the law?

      A: The short answer is “Yes,” provided the employees are permitted to use up to 40 hours of their paid time off for sick time in accordance with the law. You will need to clearly spell out your position on this issue to the staff so they understand that you view up to 40 hours of their eight (8) paid days off as complying with the new law. You may, however, encounter some disgruntled employees. You are in essence telling the staff that their employer expects them to use some of their vacation time as sick time if and as needed. While in practice this may already be the case, some employees may feel as though they no longer have 5 vacation days.

      Q: If employees want to make up time in another pay period, do we not pay the time until they have that opportunity? And if they work full-time (40 hours) now, will they be paid overtime if they make up the time in a subsequent pay period? Can the employer keep the hours made up to a maximum that meets the wages lost by taking the sick time off?

      A: The “makeup provision” of the law is presented in terms of “by mutual consent” between the employer and the employee. Therefore, if the employer does not want to permit the employee to make up the time missed, perhaps because it will result in overtime, the law affords the employer that right. If the employer allows the employee to make up the time, then the employer will not have to pay out the sick time when taken. It seems a good idea to fully document the agreement with the employee at the earliest possible time.

      Q: Please further define “24 consecutive hours.” Do you mean three eight-hour days?

      A: The law says “24 consecutively scheduled hours.” Therefore, the law is not speaking about eight-hour days or shifts, per se. The certification portion of the rule will apply if an employee misses two consecutive 12-hour shifts, three consecutive eight-hour shifts, four straight six-hour shifts and so on.

      Q: How is carryover time handled if the employer is providing a bucket of time at the beginning of the year?

      A: If the bucket of time provided January 1 gives the employee the same or more time off than the 40 hours required by the law, the employer can treat any accrued unused time from the prior year as lost time. The law says that an employer can cap the sick-time bank at 40 hours. Therefore, the employer does not need to allow a carryover of time if the bank would then exceed 40 hours. The employer can elect to permit a carryover and add the accrued time to the new time in the bucket, but the employer is not required to permit the carryover when the time in the bank meets or exceeds 40 hours.

      Q: If all time off is included in one bucket and the employee leaves, how do you determine what gets paid out and what doesn’t?

      A: If the time in the bucket is not designated, then the law will deem it vacation and require the employer to pay it all to the employee at termination. Therefore, if an employer does not want to pay out all the accrued unused time off as vacation upon termination, the employer must clearly explain to the employees what portion of the bucket is vacation time and what portion is other.

      Q: Is there a significant difference between giving sick-time credit at the employee’s hire date vs. accrual?

      A: This is likely a business decision for the employer and will vary case by case. If the employer does not want to deal with the accrual process, the employer simply needs to grant the employees a bucket of time off that meets or exceeds the requirements of the law.

      Q: If you can carry up to 40 hours over to next year but can only use 40 hours per calendar year, how do you ever use all the time?

      A: Circumstances will vary. The maximum one can accrue in a year is 40 hours. If, for example, an employee has a bad illness and misses a full week of work, the employee may use all of his or her sick time and not be able to accrue more until the following year.

  36. GFS continues to show run to run inconsistency, particularly later in the run. With that said, the storm for next Mondayish is further east. As nice as it was today, I’d like to get a nice stretch of cold and snow before we transition into Spring

  37. There is a light at the end of the tunnel: sunrise 6:55am sunset 5:01pm, I might add we are gaining 2 min’s of daylight per day. That’s always positive news. 🙂

  38. I have gone skiing only once, Yes they have man made snow, but nothing is like the real stuff. real snow grandular is better than packed poweder man made snow… man made snow is more icy. There is nothing like knee deep in powder, probably the only time I have seen knee deep in powder.

  39. Info on Euro upgrade now scheduled for March 8th:

    Post Re: 2016 ECMWF Upgrade
    An update:

    ECMWF’s upgrade to of their HRES model to cycle 41r2 is expected on March 8th.
    This upgrade will include a change of horizontal resolution from the current ~13km to ~9km.
    This resolution upgrade use a much denser set of grid-points to better resolve physical processes. The associated grids will be referred to as “cubic octahedral”.
    The resulting meteorological fields will be more accurate and contain much more energy in the finer scales.
    In particular this upgrade should vastly improve the model’s ability to handle convection at the higher resolutions, as well as improved localized forecasts in quickly changing terrain or near bodies of water.
    This in turn helps to resolve synoptic scale forecasts as these localized and convective influences move downstream.

    We are working with ECMWF to make this upgrade seamless into our system. Our maps will automatically move to the new model cycle & resolution upgrades when the upgrade occurs.

    There is a test feed of this data now, but the data is delayed and we have not provided this test data to our customers. We wanted to make sure everything we provide is ‘operational’ so no bugs or delays are introduced during the test period to you.

  40. Good morning. I am thinking in terms of MODEL MAYHEM!!!

    OR at the very least, there is NO AGREEMENT at all. The models are having
    serious trouble.

    Now our system for 2/8-2/10 time frame is WAAAAAAAY OTS with the EURO
    and more off shore with the GFS.

    Previous runs had this as an inside runner. How does it go from an inside runner
    to way off shore?????????????????

    I guess I’ll go back to the old method. Look out the Freakin window! That’s how to
    determine the weather. Wow! I have never ever seen it this bad with our
    wonderful computer models.

    1. GFS for 2/8

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016020206/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png

      CMC for 2/9, same system

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016020200/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png

      EURO

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016020200/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png

      Then look what the Euro does

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016020200/ecmwf_mslpa_us_9.png

      And that is a RAIN Maker around these parts.

      JMA

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016020112/jma_mslpa_us_8.png

      NAVGEM

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2016020200/navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_25.png

  42. Both the GFS and CMC total “about” 10-12 inches of Snow for the Boston
    area over the next 10 day period. The Euro has ZILCH.

  44. Meteorologist Gil Simmons is thinking mostly rain for that 10th for coastal areas and a sloppy mix for the inland areas.

  45. Couple tweets from meteorologist Ed Vallee for early next week
    Use caution w/ ensemble low placement day 8-10. Lots of energy = lots of solutions. Mean likely not best option.

    Guidance having a tough time picking a dominant shortwave in medium range. GFS/CMC big on 2/8 event, Euro more impressed with 2/10…

    Euro ensembles focusing on 2/9-10 for possible coastal hugger. This fits my thinking. Plenty of options on table!

    1. If you look at the ensemble spread, how could you take any ensemble mean
      seriously. It’s a joke!!

      Some GFS ensemble members give us a BOMB while others show NOTHING
      at all. That is some serious spread there.

      THROW A DART!!!

  46. Key words the end of the tweet plenty of options on the table. To me no one knows for certain what will happen in that time frame.

    1. Saw that. None of them are seeing shadows today. Ironic on this clear morning across the Northeast. 😉

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