Tuesday Forecast

186 Comments

7:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 2-6)…
Groundhogs may be searching for shadows this morning but we’re searching for what the weather will really be, and the computer models may be more confused than any groundhog will be. Inconsistency in model runs leads me to leave ideas generally the same going forward today. The only adjustment will be to slightly slow the timing of the front coming through Wednesday.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 40s. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows around 40. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers likely in the afternoon. Highs in the 50s. Wind SE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to SW late.
THURSDAY: Early rain Cape Cod. Clearing west to east. Lows around 40. Highs around 50.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows around 30. Highs around 40.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 7-11)…
A few snow shower possible with the passage of a cold front sometime on February 7. Fair and slightly colder weather is expected for February 8 and 9. A storm threat exists for the region with a risk of rain and snow about February 10-11.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 12-16)…
Additional unsettled weather possible around the middle of the month with a better chance for snow than we’ve seen many times previously. Temperatures near to below normal. This outlook is still fairly low confidence at this time.

186 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK

    Yes, odd how the critters don’t see shadows with sunshine and lights. But hard to argue with early spring

  4. Good morning again and blah blah blah. Many thanks for the update TK.
    This Winter has been boring.
    Onto SPRING.

      1. Oh I know, it’s just Model Frustration.

        They are usually much better than they have been lately.

        I know that something will happen before the month is out.
        It is just extremely frustrating looking at one TEASE after another. 😀

  5. Don’t tell Ms. G but the period from February 2 – March 20 (first day of spring) is exactly SIX WEEKS! 😉

    I would be curious as to how this groundhog legend got started anyway.

      1. Hilarious. THANK YOU!!!

        I have watched his broadcast several times and always enjoyed it.
        Despite being such a character, he did know his stuff and was
        an excellent forecaster. I think his personality finally got
        him bounced.

        Similar personality to the Stuart Siroka, who was also good.

    2. FYI…someone online said this about Al:

      “I saw him yesterday! He works at Macy’s in the Manchester Mall in NH”

        1. Yeah…it’s the internet so who knows if it’s even true. When I was in college I had a night job doing IT recruiting (thankfully not cold calling). I called this guy with a mad impressive resume…worked for NASA with the Mercury satellites, defense work on stealth technology, etc. Had tons of degrees, etc. So I talk to the guy and he says he’s not interested in the job I was calling about. Turns out he was stocking shelves at Caldors (remember that store?) was was happy doing it.

              1. I’ll be in IT until the day I die.
                It floats my boat, but weather
                floats it better!

                I MISSED an opportunity when
                I was younger and ended up
                in IT.

                1. Man we have the same “curse.” I, too, missed out on a chance and went for the money and now I am trapped.

  9. Thanks, TK.

    Some mild days; a forecast for an early spring – I still see at least one big snowstorm before this winter is out. It’s just that the later any big snows come the faster the snow will melt as sun will be in position to melt snow faster, as someone ( I forget who) posted in an earlier blog.

  10. Regarding Al…

    I know I have mentioned in the past that he is a very friendly and charitable man but his personality on air is 180 from his real personality – quiet, shy, and humble. We worked together in the private sector.

    1. I saw that. Not sure what the point of this is at all.
      So we’ll have an island with a population of timber rattlers. Then what?
      Doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me.

    1. We shall see what the Euro has to say about it. I have a feeling that
      it will be totally OTS.

      It has to track close enough to have that inverted trough action
      with the vigorous clipper system, else we get ZIPPO or a few snow showers. 😀

      That storm is too far out to throw that kind of precipitation in here, that is
      why I am pretty sure that precip is from an inverted trough.

  18. Or we could have a repeat of that storm 2yrs ago that was 600miles south of us and we still got 2ft of snow…

  19. I remember a storm back in March 2013 the storm was offshore by 700 miles yet gave widespread double digit snowfall totals to eastern parts of SNE. That was a weird storm. Trying to remember if there was an inverted trough with that.

    1. Yes, but that was a totally different set up.
      We had a 500mb configuration that threw Easterly winds from the ocean
      all the way back over us.

      I “think” this is more of an inverted trough set up.

      I am sure TK can chime in here.

      1. Very elongated low pressure surface and aloft. Didn’t need low center close since the entire atmosphere in a wide region was juiced and we were very cold.

    1. Which model? JPD just posted a snowfall map for the 2/8 timeframe. Not saying it is going to happen but curious as to which model you are looking at.

      1. Overall most of them, that’s just 1 model run, and the gfs nevertheless, the next run this evening will probably say nothing.

        1. GFS, CMC and EURO ALL SHOW SIGNIFICANT SNOW
          CHANCES. Not saying it will happen, but ALL 3 of those models show it.

  21. This winter has FLOWN by!!!! I know it’s because the lack of snow and cold. There’s light at the end of the dark tunnel. Daylight begins gaining rapidly now, gaining 90 min’s of daylight the next 4-5weeks 🙂

  22. 46 here. Have no idea what it was up to yesterday but felt very nice. But then -20 feels nice too so I suppose it is relative.

    Re the Timber Rattlesnakes, they are endangered in MA. They are, like all other creatures, an important part of the food chain. I admire Baker for his support in bringing them back. A great sign that he believes we need to undo the harm we have done.

  23. Similar idea of whether the streams phase enough, as with the storm that clobbered the mid-Atlantic.

    But, this one may have different variables at play …..

    In the storm a week or so ago, the AO was in transition back to positive. You can tell this by how mild it was immediately after the system departed the east coast. Positive AO tends to encourage more zonal flow in southern Canada and the northern tier of the US. I think that zonal flow was setting up in response to the AO trending positive and held that brunt of that storm south of us.

    Not so here. This time, it looks like the AO is trending toward negative and perhaps that might lend towards more amplified flow in the northern jet stream.

    In spite of what the GFS shows, I think this one might have a chance at being something bigger for the northeast because of the different teleconnections in play.

  24. Another day of overachieving temps.

    I seem to remember seeing 45F at Logan on those temperature projection maps that the TV mets use in their weathercast.

    And here, Logan sits at 49F.

  27. Winter’s a dud around here. Not seeing much change in this respect the coming weeks other than some colder weather. This said, parts of the nation are being whacked by a winter storm today. It’s just not our year in New England. We had our fun last year, at least in SNE. However, most of Northern New England has been in a snow drought for years.

    1. As TK has been saying, we will have our turn for cold & snow NEXT winter. And we still have the second half of this month and March for snow opportunities. 😀

    2. Too early to reach that conclusion. The cold is coming. Though it will be harder to get snow versus last year (not hard to fall short there), we have some legit chances ahead.

      Boston’s biggest snowstorm is ahead. Boston’s coldest days are ahead.

  28. All the models are having trouble past Wednesday still, and having terrible time with the 5 days and out. This to me says that this storm for wednesday and wednesday night will have something to do with the storm later on and even though the storm for sunday travels to the north, that could have an effect for the beginning of next week. Lot is up in the air for anything past 5 days.
    GFS is shifting all over the place, For the past 24 to 48 hours the gfs has shown that it is having major trouble in timing different areas of energy from both the Polar and subtropical jet and how the two jet streams will interact. There is no ensemble agreement. Have been showing anything from one big storm to several smaller/medium size storms. from rain to snow. Varying amounts.

    Canadian Canadian is the same thing with 2 storms, first one mainly rain maker the second as a snow storm. Medium size/large storms. Latest shows one storm Still gives snow but does go over to rain. previous shows mainly snow.

    Euro shoves the first storm out to sea. then sends the second one up the coast and by the time it hits the Gulf of Maine it is a 976mb storm with enough cold air to keep areas west of i95 as all snow. It seems like the Euro is flipping as well between two different scenerio’s for the 9th and 10th. showing that it as well is having trouble. JP dave when the snow map comes out can you show us. This is fun to watch the weather models struggle even though it sucks not knowing a general idea but thats the weather 😛 😀

  29. Philip, you are 100% correct. Winter’s a dud so far. There’s more to come. I’m just moping a bit.

    1. The major models are still in “figure it out” mode, but seeing ECMWF, JMA, CMC all with a very similar scenario made me pause and think. The GFS, though not the same, may be heading in that direction. If we lock that in and hold it there for several runs on all models then it’s happening. Again we remain in a situation where everything has to come together just right. There is no wiggle room. Last year if you blinked your eyes it would snow. If you set off a stick of dynamite it would still snow. No matter what we did, it would snow. This time, not so simple.

  35. LOL!!!! I did play little league baseball for three years when I was young. I played in the outfield. I enjoy every year watching the Little League World Series from Williamsport, PA. Brings back memories for me playing in little league.

  36. -AO / +NAO .. always a tricky combo.

    EPO is good for West ridge & East trough upcoming and that may persist a good part of February starting in about 1 week.

    MJO .. 4 & 5 … eh…. But maybe not a major factor. If it ever gets around to 7-8-1-2 then look out. Not sure this happens yet.

        2. That’s all you had to say…HA. I knew that. As much as I disdain snow I know we won’t get out easy. I am on another blog (not weather related) and people on there have already drained their snowblowers and one guy took the plow off his truck. I think when the temp hits the teens during the day and snow comes there will be a lot of unprepared people out there.

          1. That’s their own problem.

            Some years…you get very lucky if you do that, but it’s a foolish act to perform when we are (today) at the half way point of the average amount of snow we get, according to climate.

  37. El Nino question for TK, or anyone else:

    Has this year’s El Nino caused flooding on the west coast? There may have been and I just didn’t hear about it, but I always thought the west coast receives a ton of rain during strong El Nino years? What has made this year’s El Nino different for other parts of the country?

    1. There have been episodes of flooding rain and some mudslides, but not nearly to the degree of the 1982-1983 event, even though the magnitude is similar. It goes to show that JUST because you have El Nino like another, the results are not exactly the same.

      CA may rain more when we come out of this El Nino into transition, ironically.

      1. Thanks for the response TK. It seems like so far it has been a “tame” El Nino in terms of major impacts despite the strength.

        1. The media wanted you to believe that this particular one, being the “worst ever” was going to be a disaster.

          It doesn’t quite work like that, and though prophecies of doom get debunked by nature on a regular basis, those with the loudest voices continue to make them in the name of the almighty dollar.

          There are weather disasters every year. That’s because we live on a planet with weather.

          1. Big pet peeve of mine. Honestly it’s part of a larger agenda. Keep pushing to people that these storms or events are “unprecedented” or “extreme” or “once in a lifetime” and people will gladly write check every year for a carbon tax. Yeah I know, bring on the controversy…HA.

            1. Once in 50.
              Once in 100.
              Once in 500.
              Once in a lifetime.

              The STUPIDEST description of weather we can possibly use. There is NO WAY to measure that.

              How long have we been observing weather?

              I bet, though I cannot prove, at least once in the last 1000 years the place currently known as Boston has had 2 Winters in a row of over 100 inches of snow and 2 Winters in a row under 10 inches of snow. We just were not here to see it. And since we cannot prove for sure whether or not it happened by observation, we can’t label it.

  38. TK, many thanks for your thoughts.

    I guess we’ll find out IF the models are sticking to their stories. 😀

        2. You can dish…but you can’t take. 😉

          By the way what name did you post under on the WBZ blog? 🙂

          1. O cmon tk I can take it, and you know it. I would say more than anyone on the blog. It’s all in good fun.

  39. So off I go to the Garden for another Bruins game. Let’s see if they actually can win this time. 🙂

    1. Enjoy and I hope they win for you.

      I was really into them for the first time in ages a few years back.
      They lost me again. They’ll have to really go some to win me back again.
      😀

  40. Some CA information I have seen of late. I thought the last one was interesting. Mac’s brother was here mid-January and he said it had been raining darn near every day and not one person was complaining. Although he is from San Francisco area and said drought was not as bad there and def was not as bad as the one years ago in that area.

    http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Water-starved-Folsom-Lake-is-finally-starting-to-6738359.php

    http://ktla.com/2016/01/22/storms-dumping-on-northern-california-give-hope-of-el-nino-filling-up-low-reservoirs/

    http://www.breitbart.com/california/2016/01/22/el-nino-lakes-rise-dramatically/

    http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/01/160107-california-drought-snowpack-el-nino-rains/

      1. Thank you, Ace! Just a few links I grabbed. I had seen some info recently about the lakes really picking up amounts. As you and I know, it returns quickly and goes away just as quickly.

  41. Thanks Vicki for the article regarding the origin of Groundhog Day. Now I understand that it is all about “mating” and nothing whatsoever to do with weather. IMHO Punx Phil (as well as our own Ms. G) is nothing but a mini-scam. I also read an article today that PP’s handlers aka the “Inner Circle” prepare their “forecast” for the next 6 weeks well in advance. My guess is that PP wasn’t going to see his shadow regardless of the actual sky. 😉

    I sort of had this idea in the back of my mind that maybe groundhogs came outside to check things out and had some gut instinct about conditions in the coming days and weeks and would then “act” accordingly. I do believe that the bird and animal kingdom do have natural weather instincts at least in the short term. Like just prior to severe weather such as thunderstorms, tornadoes, hurricanes etc. for example.

  42. WeatherWiz, thanks for your post. As you allude to when on the 2nd of February, people remove their plows from their trucks, put snowblowers in storage, you know they’re somewhat ignorant. It’s New England. Until mid April we should always be prepared. I’m not expecting much from this winter, but my shovel is certainly within reach and my winter coat, too. It is begging to be worn, by the way. I hear it periodically mutter “darn that El Nino, I just want to be useful.”

    2. All 3 TV mets have the 9th as the next “potential” snow threat. Coincidently exactly one week from today. We will see of course. 😀

      I always find it interesting that there is never any “potential” for long range rain events. Tomorrow’s event has been a sure thing for several days now. 😉

  43. Here we go with mid April talk of snow, happens every year, it’s ok it’s a weather blog, and many can wish 😉

        1. It’s the same thing every year, remember this, remember that, of course it rarley snows in April, but not normally, just saying, again has it snowed in April since this blog was born?? NO!!!

          1. Was that reply for me. You might not want to go there.

            This blog is five years old.

            Answer this. We are down to the one step at a time process

            Can it snow in April. Yes or no

  44. GFS 18z http://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016020218/gfs_T850_us_25.png This on the 8th
    Then on the 10th
    http://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016020218/gfs_T850_us_31.png

    Euro 12z
    http://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016020212/ecmwf_T850_us_7.png
    further south
    then on the 9th/10th
    big storm forms
    http://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016020212/ecmwf_T850_us_8.png
    http://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016020212/ecmwf_T850_us_9.png

    The gfs has the storm on the 8th more dominant than the one on the 10th with the most snowfall in north eastern new england. with the first storm as the second develops to far north.
    Euro has the storm on the 8th well to the south with the second storm more dominant and probably the biggest and mos robust snowfall.

    The canadian has the first storm going way south and out to sea. very weak Then the second storm forms off the mid atlantic and hugs the coast. and travels right over us which makes us start as snow and turns to rain but not before a good slug of snow at the beginning.

    http://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016020212/gem_T850_us_30.png
    http://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016020212/gem_T850_us_31.png

    Some models show two storms with one dominant, the other shows just one storm.

    1. Which model is correct, IF ANY????

      We are getting closer, so we’ll know soon enough.

      Looks like at least some snow is on the way and it could be a lot.

  47. Not trying to upset the blog, we just go through this April snow theory like winter is over in early February. It’s like clockwork,, “snow” doesn’t mean winter continues, cold temps alone in my book with no snow still continue winter.

    1. Charlie if you do nothing else, please tell us the last date of winter. Please try not to ignore this request. Just a simple date will do.

  50. Southern NE has hosted many snowstorms in March. Of course this doesn’t happen every year. But accumulating snow in March is more probable than accumulating snow in November in SNE. And, on average the snow totals for March are pretty close to December’s average, I believe. April is a different story. Snow chances diminish considerably. However, in SNE we’ve had our share of April snowstorms. Some were mentioned above. I should add a few. April 1982; this was a `cold’ storm with high ratios (unusual for April). Two snowstorms in April 1996, one of which caused a game at Fenway to be postponed. I believe there was also accumulating snow in SNE in April 1994, but I’d have to double check.

    1. I remember the April 96 one as it snowed on the Yankees home opener. What a winter 95-96 was with accumulating snow continuing into the second week of April.

  51. John, you are correct about the plows being a possible hazard. Therefore, they need to be removed between storms. I just think that being prepared for storms is crucial, even if we’ve had little snow to speak of and often balmy temps. I think that it’s human nature to react to what one’s just experienced and believe that this establishes a trend. As fans we do this in sports all the time. For example, coming off the Chiefs game Pats fans figured the O-line would be okay against Denver. In terms of weather, a 60F plus day really has people thinking it’s spring even when the calendar says otherwise. Then, if temps plunge and snow arrives people often act surprised (“it was 65 last week, what the heck happened”).

  53. Charlie you have two questions

    When is last day of winter/first of spring

    Can it snow in April

    Will require two words and one number 🙂

  54. All I’m saying, and this is no way in offense of anyone is we go through this every year, I mean every single year. Maybe,,, just maybe it’s this year, BUT probably not, again I totally understand it’s a weather blog, and we bring up dates in the past, which feel like different life’s ago,like 96, but it’s 20yrs ago!! Once a lifetime!!! I just try to bring real life to the blog that’s all.

    On a side note I guess up to 10 maybe 15 emails per week that regularly look at the blog that chat with me, that either can’t type, or are not accepted, that state the very same thing. Again this is no offense to a great weather blog, but just saying. 🙂

      1. March 20th, but when is the last day of winter? Vicki I don’t try to avoid your questions. 🙂

          1. There you go. So, Charlie until March 20 please do not say winter is over because it is not

            Now we have one more question

    2. I’m also glad you feel TKs blog needs life. Last I checked I am still alive and it has snowed in March many many times in my lifetime as well as April and once in May. Now please answer the questions. Straight forward answers

    4. Question: If they can’t type, how are they emailing you, and why would they email you to say the “same thing”. They are emailing you to tell you what you tell us? That makes no sense. Why don’t they email me? My email has been posted on the blog, and if they can’t find it, then here it is: tk8888@hotmail.com … Or do me a favor, pass it along to them and have them email me with their comments or questions. Or they can just comment here on the blog, because that statement you made about them not being accepted is a complete lie. You do realize that I’m the admin of this blog and anybody that attempts to comment must enter an email and username at which time I’m notified directly.

      So, 1996 no longer exists because it’s 20 years ago? I guess that means that all the Marches and Aprils that have not snowed that are 20 or more years ago don’t exist either, because well, it’s a “different life ago”, whatever that means.

      You stated that you try to bring real life to the blog. Just by making that statement you immediately discredit everyone’s contributions. You want to bring real life to this place? Try telling the truth, being respectful, and getting your facts straight before you spew your repeating drivel.

      Maybe I should inform you that I get emails and messages asking to remove you from the blog because, despite your claim to the contrary, you often do upset people. If that isn’t your true intention, then you are failing miserably. Have you ever noticed that the “controversy” in here is nearly always centered around you? Perhaps that’s what you want…

      Again, I hate to have to write something like this that everybody has to read, because all it’s really doing is taking away from the reason I set this place up. That reason was to leave the bullying that was ongoing at WBZ behind, because management there was not keeping it out. And I don’t care if you say “it’s all in good fun” or whatever phrase you choose. It’s the same thing over and over. You’ve found the best way you can to ride right along the line of insulting vs. not insulting. And the reality is, it’s my own fault for being too nice in letting it go on too many times. Have you ever actually counted how many times you have stated things like “I am not trying to offend anybody” or “I’m not doing this to upset the blog” etc. Why do you feel that need? Don’t answer that, I will. It’s because you know those comments do just what you claim them not to do. And that’s not up for debate. Because despite what you think, I am the one, as the admin of this blog, that ultimately decides what is offensive/insulting and what isn’t. And now I say enough.

      It comes down to this:
      I don’t want a repeat of the same debate about Spring snow. We KNOW the stats. YOU know the stats. It has nothing to do with anyone’s opinion. There is no opinion to be had about what we already know is fact. It snows in March on a fairly regular basis. Sometimes, it snows in April. Rarely, it snows significantly in March. Even more rarely, it snows significantly in April. Extremely rarely, it snows in May. Nobody is trying to tell you it snows in Spring like it snows in mid Winter. We know the history. We know the dates. We know the snow amounts. That’s it. It ends here.

      I have determined that you have brought this place to where I don’t want it. So therefore, you have a choice:
      Apologize to all here and you’ll be on posting probation.
      Don’t apologize and I’ll have to suspend you for a period of time that I shall decide.

      If you feel you have nothing to apologize for, then you are in error, because that decision regarding the blog is mine, not yours.

      You have until noon tomorrow to make your decision.
      Apologize to all or you’ll be taking a vacation from posting.

      1. I do apologize for bringing the blog into a frenzy over whether it snows or not in April. I know it CAN snow, but I guess what I’m saying is it usually does not, that’s all. I’m not a jerk although many think I am. Again didn’t mean to get under anyone’s skin, and with that, again I’m sorry.

        1. We know it usually does not. They all know it. Don’t insult their intelligence and make yourself look foolish in the process.

  57. I do not understand what the hole fuss is about it
    It has snowed in April, It has even snowed in May before. charlie are you talking about accumulating snowfall of 1 inch or more? or 3 inches or a coating.
    All of which has happened in April. and there has been snowflakes that have fallen in may. I was not around when it snowed in may. I have gone skiing up north and experianced snow falling in early may. just saying.

  59. I am curious Charlie. How old are you? Unless you are a millennial you should have memories of March and April snowstorms in SNE.

    1. My oldest is 34 and youngest 29. All remember March and April vividly. May was three years before oldest was born.

  61. 0z GFS looking more like the Euro solution now for next Tuesday. 979mb bomb east of Boston by this time next week. Still plenty of time – but going to be interesting to watch this develop over the coming week. Models finally seem to be zeroing in on a more specific storm threat and time period.

    TK, sorry about the loss – again. You are going to need to stop going to the games!

    1. They did win once for me last year… But yeah, I just seem to be at so many losses lately. 😛

      The potential for next week is pretty up there, snow-wise. Not a lock at this point but the pattern is quite supportive by then.

  67. The GFS and CMC have backed off considerably for the 9th,10th. Euro still rather robust, however, it is MOSTLY RAIN along the coast due to a warm low layer
    at 925mb.

    surface

    http://imgur.com/qw3JBRB

    925mb temperature

    http://imgur.com/ghctsoV

    2/10 24 hour total qpf

    http://imgur.com/ywHpAzs

    24 hour snow for 2/10

    http://imgur.com/ExZcIMO

    So things are still evolving. The 10th is a FULL WEEK away. Things will fluctuate
    between now and then for sure.

    Oh and btw, the EURO throws some snow into SE MA on Friday with a bit up to
    Boston. This has been TRENDING N&W.

    http://imgur.com/Iofwl5E

  69. Nice dumping of snow for interior on 0z EURO run.

    From Upton, NY for Friday
    LOOKING AT MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL
    FIELDS…THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME ROOM FOR MODELS TO CONTINUE
    TRENDING A BIT MORE TO THE NW.

  71. the models again have changed, and are having trouble with the timing of the polar jet and subtropical. Most have shifted the first storm further north for the 5. gives areas south and east of Boston a light snowfall.

    The gfs has the storm on the 10th much weaker for us as it reforms northeast of the region.
    Euro. has to warm of a lower level but has a decent track, not as much snow as it was showing before especially for eastern mass.

    still time to change more than 5 days out.

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