Sunday Forecast

270 Comments

7:38AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 7-11)…
This update will nix in-depth discussion and save it for comments below as information comes in today. Overall, we’re still looking at a nice day today with plenty of sun and snow-melting, above-freezing temperatures. Clouds come in late from 2 directions: a high cloud shield from the south ahead of a developing ocean storm, and a band of clouds from the north along the leading edge of colder air, a cold front, which may trigger a snow shower in southern NH and northern MA by evening. The storm developing offshore will grow into a large-sized and very powerful ocean storm, but its orientation and size will be enough to throw moisture in the form of accumulating snow back into southeastern New England Monday. We’ll continue to watch the interaction of pieces of energy in a larger scale low pressure trough Tuesday-Thursday with additional opportunities for snow possible. At this time it looks like a second system may deliver a period of snow early Wednesday to parts of southern New England, but again timing and location of any snow area is uncertain, so just follow later updates.
TODAY: Sunshine much of the day, fading late behind advancing high clouds from the S, and also some cloudiness arriving in southern NH and northern MA from the north at the end of the day. Highs 38-45. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a snow shower southern NH to northern MA early. Snow developing southeastern MA and southern RI overnight. Lows in the 20s. Wind NW to NE 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Snow expanding northwestward across the region and continuing much of the day before becoming more intermittent and scattered at night. Blowing snow likely. UPDATED ACCUMULATION FORECAST… 4-8 inches except 8-14 inches in portions of southeastern MA and under 4 inches in north central MA and southwestern NH and under 8 inches outer Cape Cod and Nantucket. Temperatures steady in the 20s but may reach the 30s for a while immediate coast south of Boston and Cape Cod / Islands, before falling later. Wind NE 15-30 MPH with higher gusts especially coastal areas and southeastern MA. Blizzard conditions may exist in these areas for a few hours.
TUESDAY: Partial clearing but snow showers possible during the day/evening. Cloudy with a risk of snow returning overnight. Lows around 20. Highs around 30.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with a chance of snow morning. Variably cloudy with a chance of snow showers afternoon. Lows around 20. Highs around 30.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows around 20. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 12-16)…
Clipper system brings a chance of light snow later February 12 with seasonably cold air expected. Secondary Arctic front may deliver snow showers February 13 otherwise windy and turning much colder. Very cold, windy, and fair February 14. Moderating temperatures but snow risk increases February 15-16.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 17-21)…
Overall drier weather though weak systems may produce passing snow showers at times. Temperatures near to slightly above normal for the period.

270 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  3. Thanks TK. I was surprised to wake up and find us under a winter storm watch. Yesterday and last night most guidance was shying away from anything more than a couple inches for tomorrow if that.

  4. 12z guidance will be interesting to see if there is a slight shift in either direction. Slight shift west push the heavier snow totals further west. Slight shift east bring down the snowfall amounts.

  5. It’s funny how we have to pay more attention to these subtle shifts when snow is involved rather than just rain. This is what gives the false impression that we miss on snow more than rain. Not the case whatsoever. In fact, we probably (as a whole meteorological community) miss on rain amounts far more often than snow amounts during the course of a calendar year. 😛

    1. This is interesting. I have thought about this before. It seems that the expected precision is much greater for snow than rain given, say, a 10:1 ratio. I often see a prediction of 1″ – 2″ of rain for an area, but very seldom a prediction for 10″ – 20″ of snow. “What kind of a sloppy prediction is that!?”

      On the other hand, we have come to expect a prediction of 8″ – 10″ of snow, but not usually 0.8″ – 1.0″ of rain. “Let’s not split hairs!”

    2. I presume because so much focus on snow totals vs rain. I would think predicting snow is more difficult than rain amounts?

    3. Do you think also that the average person pays far less attention to rain, when, where and how much, will be in their area?

      1. All I care about the rain forecast is whether it is mist, regular rain or cats and dogs. Three categories. Also when it begins and ends. That is it.

    4. It is also harder to verify the prediction for rain than snow. More people own a ruler than a rain gauge.

  6. Latest NWS snow map, 4:40 AM

    http://www.weather.gov/images/box/winter/StormTotalSnowWeb1.png

    I note for the first time in Days, the SREF appears to have backed off considerably.

    3Z SREF was very bullish with 12-14 inches for Boston. Now the 9Z SREF
    has 3-4 inches for Boston As of 1PM tomorrow with the larger amounts far SE and the Cape. However, it commences the snow a little later as well, so maybe it will show
    more snow up this way a bit later in the day???? WIll check back soon.

  8. Thank you TK. I am to the point and have been for quite a while where I literally do not pay attention to any weather source other than WHW. I think I do not tell you enough how much you, this blog and also the folks here are appreciated. That said, without you and your expertise and the time you commit, none of it would be possible.

    1. Well said Vicki and I agree 100%. I just hope TK knows how much we
      appreciate what he has done and does do for this Blog.

      I come here first and supplement the info with anything else I can fine, but
      clearly I am parked here during any upcoming event and event. It’s the place
      to be!!!! 😀

  9. HOLY CRAP BATMAN, the NAM has pressed on the acelerator and DELIVERS
    a BLOW!!! Showing near a Foot up to Boston and Still going. It portrays a MONSTER
    with the heavier precip shield making it to Boston. AMAZING!!!

    Look at this beast:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2016020712&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=028

    snow map shortly when it is done

    SE Ma 12-14 inches and still counting.

    We may see a BLIZZARD watch/warning for SE areas.

  11. Thanks TK !

    Tomorrow should be fascinating.

    Other aspects …..

    Turning colder during the morning and afternoon. Definitely signs of that on the models.

    It may be near or slightly above 32F at the shore when the snow starts, that probably will get the roads wet and then, a temp drop as the day wears on.

    Also, along the coast, once the snow gets started, it might be difficult to turn it off due to the northeast flow. Sort of like when the heavy rain is done, it continues to mist and drizzle for hours and hours afterward.

    1. I was serious about blizzard, it will just be a matter of the northern cut off
      of any warning/watch for that. We shall see.

      NWS are probably crapping their pants reviewing the NAM run. 😀

      2. Was it TK who said that the models weren’t picking up on the moisture on the NW portion of the storm and more towards the SE portion of it. NAM looks like it just figured that out.

  12. All the weather models are showing strong winds, I believe, even if the storm is further out to sea, A blizzard watch will be posted, Most on here know this but I will say it anyway, You do not need much if any snow accumulating for Blizzard conditions 😉

    1. Also, many hours after the synoptic snow hits southeast Mass, what’s left over is a general light snow that extends WAY back into western and northwestern New England. 3-6 inches worth.

      So, I think eastern areas get that too and the wild card is how much synoptic snow makes it into SE New England from the big ocean storm.

    1. I don’t think so. If you look closely at the maps, it appears our area
      just makes it into the NW edge of the heavier precipitation. I do not
      recognize signs of an inverted trough. But hey, I am not a Met and perhaps
      I am missing something. Comments?

  16. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    1. After the January 22nd snowstorm, the snow total for Washington DC was significantly less than surrounding areas. This was likely due to what?
    A. The moderate effect of Chesapeake Bay
    B. A change in wind direction
    C. A measuring device got lost in the snow
    D. Obstructions near the measurement area

    2. This past November, December, and January were the warmest on record forBoston.

    A. True
    B. False

    Answers later today.

  18. Wow! That’s a nice shift west on the NAM! It’s been my concern last minute models start to pick up on a more western track of the storm. Let’s see if it continues with other models. Thanks JP for all the info.

  19. I didn’t realize that the Winter Storm Watch was expanded.

    http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/box.png

    Details for my area

    http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=MAZ015&warncounty=MAC025&firewxzone=MAZ015&local_place1=Brookline%20Village%20MA&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch&lat=42.3335&lon=-71.1305#.VrdWsxgrJkg

    Highlight:

    * UNCERTAINTY…THE AMOUNT OF OCEAN-EFFECT ENHANCED SNOW BANDING REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

    IN ADDITION…A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE
    TRACK OF AN OCEAN STORM COULD INCREASE AMOUNTS WHILE A TRACK
    FARTHER EAST COULD REDUCE AMOUNTS.

    1. Shaping up to be a mighty interesting day tomorrow.

      Hopefully this gets Boston up into the 20s for season snowfall and meeting
      the low end of TK’s seasonal prediction.

  20. Dave can you post the euro snowfall maps and the liquid. Also the wind. for the 00z runs and also when they come the 12z…

  21. Yes I saw that regarding the western shift on my town page . So questions my good friends . Do we think the NAM is to high ? So what is the timing of the storm tomorrow morning and does it go all day and night . Somebody throw me the high number for boston and pembroke. Lastly do we know if this is a heavy snow. Sorry guys and many thanks I’m heading out soon to brunch with the fam. Also it was mentioned above about coming here first I 100% agree. Tk you’re forecasts are spot on and presented in away that anybody could understand , well done barring any surprises you will nail the winter forecast that you presented to us. Question for you Tk is do we have that very hot summer that you also predicted.

      1. Re: Start time
        There is wide variation on that. model to model.
        Could be as early as 1AM OR it could hold off until about 7AM or
        later. Wish I could nail it down more. Please check back later.

  22. Regardless of what transpires over SNE, this is a very special storm developing. You just don’t get to see too many like this. A behemoth in every sense of the word. I still suspect the short range models are bringing in too much precip, but my forecast from last night may be a little too conservative. Ocean enhancement definitely needs to be taken into account. I agree with TK’s numbers.

    1. So far, it has not. We shall see. Right now, the GFS is the OUTLIER.
      Funny, isn’t it???

      Even last night’s FIM has Boston in the 4-6 inch range. 😀

  24. Don’t mind the snow per say but the timing sucks. Guessing if it’s starts 9am everyone will be at work and school and get screwed later.

      1. Yeah that’s my issue. My boss is not the type that likes us working from home which is dumb since our jobs totally lend themselves to that. Pressure will be on to go in.

  25. re: Ocean Enhancement

    From NWS this morning:

    OCEAN-EFFECT ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE KEY TO THE FORECAST. WITH WATER TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT +5C TO +6C…WE WOULD TYPICALLY BEGIN TO SEE OCEAN EFFECT WITH A DIFFERENTIAL OF ABOUT 13 DEGREES C BETWEEN THE OCEAN SURFACE AND 850 MB…OR ABOUT -7C. ALL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN…AND THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE -10C AIR AT 850 MB EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST MON AFTERNOON INTO MON NIGHT. WITH STRONG NE WINDS…GUSTING TO 40+ MPH AT THE
    COAST…THE SNOW SHOULD EXTEND WELL INLAND.

    GREAT CALL TOM!!!!

    My big question is: How much have the models incorporated this into their
    snow amount? I am wondering if it isn’t under done and the ocean enhancement
    is significant such that combined with synoptic snow, it produces periods of HEAVY
    snow in Eastern sections thus upping snow totals even more?????

    BIG QUESTION

  26. Yet the Boston colleges will be open both monday and tuesday when everyone else closes in eastern mass 😉

  27. Eric Fisher just awhile ago

    Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 1h1 hour ago South Windsor, CT
    Thinking blizzard conditions possible Cape/Islands/SS. Looks like a widespread 6-12″ snowfall Boston area south and east.

      1. Oh yeah it does. It has joined CAMP SNOW!
        May not be as robust as the NAM, but it is showing significant
        snows for the area.

    1. Sfc temps on hrs 33 thru 39.

      Shows the plunge of polar air while at the immediate coast, there’s a NE wind and a sharp temp gradient.

      I think this is just the GFS vs NAM and how they interpret ocean enhancement.

        1. It sure has increased the ocean enhancement Boston n and w. I think that ocean enhancement is going to be fascinating to watch

  32. Will be an interesting call for us tomorrow. My guess, based on the timing is we will have school but probably cancel the after school program, and we could be looking at a delay on Tuesday, perhaps? Canceling Friday was clearly the right call–tomorrow not so clear cut.

    1. In SE Mass anyway, it could be a difficult call both days.

      Monday, it’s trying to assess that mid afternoon conditions.

      On Tuesday, it’s will the roads, school lots etc be ready Tuesday morning. Will there be power issues Tuesday ?

      I can see a scenario where some towns might lose both days. (I hope not)

    2. This is not going to be a broadbrushed 3-6 inch snowfall. I don’t just forecast for the town you live in.

  33. I am happy we have some NON-MODEL hugging Mets who are adept at
    analyzing the situation. I give you TK, Eric Fisher and like him or nor Bernie
    Rayno has been terrific lately. Other Mets would spit out the model info.

  37. My take on this …..

    Boston and Marshfield are 30 to 34F tomorrow morning with a healthy NE wind.

    Wet snow moves in from the ocean storm and even if the intensity is good, I might struggle to accumulate at first.

    Mid or late morning or early afternoon, the wind backs slightly and the temps drop into the mid 20s or even lower and on radar, the snow echoes lifting towards the NW begin to weaken. But, snow echoes moving toward the SW begin to intensify and it’s then that an accumulation begins in earnest and this keeps going into the evening and lightens some overnight, but continues into Tuesday morning.

  38. Just got in from a morning full of errands.

    I’ll be adjusting those #’s up a little bit shortly. I just wanted to toss out an idea then see the 12z stuff.

    Be back soon…

  41. Updated #’s for now, and further tweaking may be needed so these are not final #’s…

    2-4 inches north of Route 2 and outside 495, 4-8 inches 495 to Boston including south central MA and northeastern MA, 8-14 inches south of Boston to northern RI, 4-8 inches southern RI to Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard and 2-4 inches outer Cape Cod to Nantucket.

    Pay attention to the RANGE, not just the TOP NUMBER.

        1. Thanks! Wonder how schools will treat this. I am guessin tuesday school will be canceled but how will they handle tomorrow? Will see!

            1. Oh really? I haven’t checked your update but thought it would still be snowing Tuesday for a bit no?

              1. I think it will be largely over by Monday evening or early night.

                Tuesday may actually have some partial sun between systems.

  42. From Bernie Rayno
    Classic windshield wiper with models.u will continue to see guidance shift things back to the west over next 24 hours into New England

  43. Anybody have Super Bowl predictions. I am rooting Manning and the Broncos but I don’t see them winning the game. To win the game they have to start fast. If they get behind big early I don’t see them coming back.
    Panthers 24 Broncos 13

    1. Broncos have about a zero percent chance of winning this game I think. Not sure if you’ve watched any Carolina games but they are a machine.

            1. Denver barely got past the steelers and the pats…barely. I am afraid their luck won’t get them past the panthers. I hate both teams so I don’t care…but I just don’t see Carolina losing this unless Goddell orders the refs to give Manning a good farewell.

              1. And there may be the key.

                Remember, there was no chance manning beat Brady either.

                I’m going for Manning. I’d like a win for him in his last. And Newton is good but cocky.

    2. Denver 27
      Carolina 24

      There is a reason why they actually PLAY the games and don’t decide them before they start. 😉

      I mean, after all, St. Louis was a machine back some number of years ago when they faced a Patriots team that was very good, but had no chance of winning. 😉

      1. Really? Denver? Maybe you will be right but I don’t see how they match up at all against Carolina…and I hate Carolina.

        1. I don’t like either team, but I’m one of the only Pats fans that actually likes Manning. I’m not sure what happened with this whole drug thing and that may change my opinion, but based on what I do know, he’s fine. And I like his personality.

          1. I agree I don’t hate manning. I think he’s treated better than brandy for sure. Don’t mind him…makes decent commercials too! “Epic comeback starts right now…”

          2. I like Manning. I hope his defense can stop Newton and that the Panthers turn the ball over.

            I think the halftime show should be a showing of “League of Denial”, the PBS show on the concussion problem. RIP Ken Stabler and Earl Morral, past Super Bowl winning QBs who died with CTE.

        1. If it turns out that he has indeed done something wrong, then I would expect him to face a stiff punishment, but news headlines don’t make someone guilty. I want them to do it right.

  44. 8-14 for us Tom they need to call this tonight it’s a no brainier and if blizzard watch is posted. Pembroke has a temporary supt and she got blasted for calling Friday . People are so screwed up as Friday was a dangerous situation.

  45. Denver defense is great which is why they have a chance. Problem is Newton is able to move around and escape a lot more than Brady. As I said earlier they can’t get down big early.

    1. If they go down by 2 TD’s right away then it’s trouble. If Denver scores first, look out Carolina.

      1. Newtons only issue may be inexperience in the Super Bowl but if he’s on fire it will be hard to stop them.

        1. If he gets cocky and starts celebrating every time they gain 1 yard, then he’s in big trouble. I just have a feeling Manning is going to have a huge game.

          1. That does drive me nuts about him…guy is over the top. Keep waiting for excessive celebration flags.

  46. This scenario shows some resemblance to a storm we had on December 5-6 1981. Storm was initially thought to be OTS but was a very, very large circulation and extremely wrapped up, and its northern precipitation shield ended up becoming a western precipitation shield. 12-18 inches in most of Boston area with that one, but it lasted longer than this one will.

    1. Man to think I can’t remember what I had for dinner a few nights ago ha. Funny I remember even days ago this storm was consider “way” out to sea…I figured we wold dodge a bullet this time. Guessing the trend this winter is don’t believe the models until 24 hours and assume north or west movements?

      1. It depends on the set-up. We never did catch the NW shift in 1981. That storm was a surprise. Dick Albert noted that it was probably his worst winter forecast for a storm. He had been on air saying flurries on the edge of a storm going out to sea. I have a vivid memory of going out in my brother’s car with him and my sister in law, and my friend that I had a paper route with, on Saturday December 5, and we took a ride up to the top of Zion where the towers are because I wanted to see them close up. I got out of the car up there and noticed that the clearing line that was on the western horizon was gone. First sign things were not moving northeast… That that point it was just overcast. The snow started a few hours later and wasted no time accumulating. It peaked in the early morning hours of Sunday December 6 before slowly tapering off, but snow/blowing snow was around much of the day.

        1. Man remember paper routes? Never see them anymore. Use to be a kid on his bike delivering newspapers after school. Sorry off the weather track but thanks for the info! Dick Albert was the one weatherman I remember the most growing up.

            1. Like:

              Your parents not knowing where you were on Saturdays and that was ok

              Getting bullied at school (or being the bully) was an accepted part of life and looked at as a life experience

              Bottled water didn’t exist and the idea would seem crazy

              Cool cars were about HP and not about how green it was (dream car: 1987 Buick GNX)

              Food had no nutrition labels on it

              You celebrated main holidays without the fear of offending someone

              1. I spent many Saturdays discovering new parts of my neighborhood, or other nearby ones, after fueling up on sugared cereal and getting some of my ideas from Saturday morning TV – though we were smart enough not to try those antics that the coyote did. After all, he NEVER got the roadrunner. They didn’t WORK!

                I was bullied at school. Today, I “beat up” adult bullies by using words and exposing their lack of ability to communicate intelligently.

                We had a “drinking glass” for when we were in the house. It was used for tap water. Yum! And we lived on the edge here in Woburn! Outside, it was the hose, or in the Winter, melted snow… 😛

                I still remember riding in the back of mom’s station wagon with the rear window down. 😀

                I used to read the side of the cereal box every morning. I still can’t prononuce some of that stuff.

                Happy Easter! Happy Thanksgiving! Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!

                1. Dude we had a cup by the sink too! Everyone is a germaphobe now…we look back at is as the “community cup.” Hell we use to shoot bottle rockets at each other.

    2. Tk Remer that one well.
      We went out for dinner with friends.
      I was not driving and coming home
      Going up a hill wheels lost traction
      And action of driver caused car do do a complete 360. Thankfully no cars were coming in either direction.
      Think I measured 1 foot at my house.
      I call this one the Bob Copeland storm
      Because he knew

  47. With the game tonight. I am routing for the Panthers, which mean they will probably loose.
    but
    Both teams have been able to play close games and win them.
    Panthers have been the most consisant and seemed to me to have a harder schedual than the Bronco’s
    I said it before in the wild card round. Who ever is the afc champion will likely loose in the super bowl to the panthers but if the cards were in it, it would be an even shot but would still give it to the cardinals. If the pats, or bronco’s were in it, I think the nfc would win but the game would be closer if the pats were in it. Most superbowls , win or loss, were within a few plays. (within a few field goals)

  48. Saw this tweet from 12z EURO. If someone can confirm it that would be great.
    Maybe we should lay out the red carpet for the “King’s” entrance to the party? Unbelievable… 12z Euro comes in much juicier

    1. It’s not a surprise that this model would not be first this time. Models tend to be on equally bad and/or good ground with this type of set-up.

  49. Is this set up like the march storm we had in 2013 i believe, where the storm was far away and some areas got 2 feet of snow?

    1. I asked that same question yesterday. Large storm that is far offshore but due to size able to give accumulating snow.

    2. In that storm, the center was way, way out, but the storm was part of a very elongated west-east area of low pressure both surface and aloft.

      This system will be much more like December 1981.

    1. I said when I stood for Brady that I would do the very same for Any player in the same situation. Brady was set up. I have no doubt it can be the very same for Manning.

  51. With the talks of the history. of back then and now
    Just in my neiborhood. there has been a huge difference
    There have always been young kids in the area and still are, you just don’t see them as they are always inside on their video games. It is not ok for 5 and 6 graders to be around a playground anymore. (though who would want to anymore, the big slides are no longer big slides.) it is looked as trouble now a days.

    Parents tell kids that the woods are dangerous and they should not go in it. I understand kids in 1st grade and second grade sort of. ( I was going into the woods when I was in second grade exploring and figuring out what to do and stuff. making up games,, using plastic bats as swords, etc. Playing ball. Climbing trees, Playing hide and seek in the woods. Playing tag (boys vs girls no issues with it, now there is, hands to your self, stop being sexual etc)…. I understand the no tackle football, but no football at all, no baseball allowed at school recess is stupid.

    My point is there is a lot of things discouraging kids from being outside, exploring the outdoors, hell I can not tell you how many times i woke up, took a shower/bath ate breakfeast when I felt like it, watch tv or go on the computer left at 9 or 10 in the morning with a small bagged lunch and a few snacks and did not come back till dinner Nothing wrong with it, I was in the woods with my brothers making forts or outside playing ball, or playing neighbor hood wide tag or hide and seek, or capture the flag, or manhunt…. sorry for my rant but when I grow up and if i am fortunate to have a family of my own, they are going to be raised right and know how to use a ball. Limited amount of computer and tech time and need to go outside and enjoy what is out there, they will not be afraid of it.

    3. Charlie….note before you read that I am not disagreeing with you any more than John was. I’m posting what I see which is what John did and what you did. Not sure why John and I cannot do the same without you getting upset. Kids are out in our neighborhood having a blast. They have been playing in the woods behind our house all weekend and on the street. I just drove through framingham, natick,,Weston and Wellesley and kids were out sledding and building snowmen

  52. 12z Euro delivers 6″+ All the way west to the CT river valley and 3″+ to the New York State line. 9-12″ bullseye from a Boston to providence line southeast to about the cape cod canal. Less on the cape itself.

    1. Thanks Mark. That’s one heck of a circulation off the SE coast. Slow too. Probably waiting to be picked up by that ULL

    2. I do think a chunk of Arctic dry air may eat away that area to the west and the cut-off will be a little more sharp.

    1. Discussion from that time frame

      IN ADDITION THE 12Z NAM IS MOST SKILLFUL INSIDE 36 HRS.
      WILL WAIT TO EVALUATE ALL 12Z GUID BUT AS OF NOW LEANING TOWARD THE 12Z NAM.

      SNOWFALL…POTENTIAL 6-12″ ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN MA /INCLUDING CAPE COD AND ISLANDS/ RI…POSSIBLY WESTWARD INTO EASTERN CT AND NORTHWARD INTO THE WORCESTER HILLS. LOW RISK OF 18+ ACROSS COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY TO THE UPPER CAPE AS OES AND LAND/SEA CONVERGENCE
      IS MAXIMIZED OVER THIS REGION.

      STAY TUNED…MUCH MORE TO COME THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH START PLANNING FOR MAJOR IMPACT TO MORNING COMMUTE INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA

  58. Adjustments I’d make, and probably will use when I fine-tune further as we get closer:

    A lot of moisture, a coastal front, and a lot of cold air coming in on the back side, but very very dry cold air as well. This would lead to a slight increase in the snow totals in eastern areas, especially southeastern MA, and a sharper drop-off as you head well to the northwest.

    1. It also depends on where you are. It doesn’t start at the same time everywhere. It’s an area that has to move in. South first, north later.

    2. I asked that above I think TK said dawn around our area…let me scroll up and look to check for accuracy.

  63. TK, I know it’s a ways out in the future but the 4 the of July looks to be hazy, hot and humid . Could you comment please……

  66. Not seeing any big sustained warm-ups. Sorry.
    February 22 won’t work out, in my opinion.

  68. Byebye diet.

    I’m getting Chinese food from Eighty Eight in Winchester. You know, the fake kind of Chinese food, but a little MSG never hurt anyone. 😛

    1. Then again neither are the Bruins. They’re only luke-warm, but the ice might have something to do with that.

  71. Hoping against hope that the Patriots, instead of the Broncos, come out of the tunnel when the announcer introduces the American Football Conference Champions.

    1. Mardi Gras is fun if you are with the right people, Never celebrated it before last year but i had a blast with some of my friends

  73. There is nothing on the models to show that, Can you send me a link that you are using?? where do you get this stuff from. Curiosity sometimes gets to me 😀

  74. Blizzard Warning for Plymouth County for most of the day tomorrow. NWS says a potential of 18″ in places with wind gusts to 65 mph.
    Most of Middleborough has power again, but not everyone yet.
    Tom, looks like we’ll be going to school deep into June again!

  75. Hmmm what does this mean??/ Just an 18Z run or is something up??
    NAM has BACKED OFF substantially.

    CMC-HRDPS / Quebec (mesh: 2.5 km interpolated to 5 km)

      1. I understand that the snow amounts are a bit lower, but it still has all the main ideas of the 12z.

        Some synoptic snow from the ocean storm, a decent amount of ocean enhancement and it’s still spitting out a widespread 6-10.

        1. It still represents a significant back off and that generally is not a good sign. Perhaps it didn’t get enough data due
          to it being 18Z, I don’t know. But I do NOT like it.

          1. I’ve always thought, even in the 12z NAM, that a large percentage of that projected snow was more of the cold air running across the ocean and being thrown back into eastern MA due to the circulation of the storm.

            So, I’m not sure that part has changed. It’s not like the storm track just switched from the benchmark to 200 miles southeast of it.

            That’s why I’m not reading too much into those lower amounts. I think 6-10 is pretty reasonable with higher amounts in favored ocean enhanced areas and when the polar air crashes to the coast at som point tomorrow and it’s windy, it will be blizzard like in Boston and points south and east.

  76. Not gonna lie, folks. Panthers country is pretty exciting on this game day. Lots of smiles (for now!) bars and breweries packed.

    Send some of that blizzard warning down here, will ya?

  77. Pimento cheese toasts, onion soup dip with Gruyere toasts, buffalo wings, shrimp cocktail, shrimp egg rolls, stuffed clams…..can you tell I was headed to the seafood store when I drove from here to Wellesley 🙂

      1. Do you think it means anything?
        Could it mean something?

        We’ll know in about an hour when the GFS is out far enough. 😀

  80. 39 and blue sky has removed a lot of the snow fro Friday. Our front south facing roof has many clear areas with maybe an or so where there is snow. I am sure the back roof has more but water is pouring off roof. Nice to have some go off the roofs before the next one arrives.

    1. And that is why we get more precipitation. The size, and the fact it’s wrapped up sooner. The northern flank moves around to the west side as it goes by this latitude.

  83. NWS numbers are too high. Pretty bold on their part to go higher than just about every piece of guidance. The short range models (NAM, WRFs), have backed off a lot this afternoon, as I’ve been expecting. Granted, the globals have gone up some, so it’s somewhat of a meeting in the middle. But widespread double digit totals look highly unlikely. I’ll take 4-8″ over eastern MA, increasing further south/east except maybe lower on the Cape. More than I was thinking yesterday for sure, it’ll depend largely on the ocean effect I think.

  84. No need for changes yet. It’s the 18Z NAM…ocean effect plus outer bands will have increased snow along the coast I think 8-12 still reasonable for Boston south!

  85. I’m getting all kinds of alerts from my town I’m just waiting for the school call as I think this needs to be called tonight . We are all under blizzard warnings down here they need to do the right thing and I think they will.

    1. Woburn tweeted that they will decide on school here by 5:30AM, but that’s fine. I’m pretty sure they’ll call most towns tonight down your way.

      1. Well in my opinion tk they should. Friday’s storm they said Thursday they would not call till Friday. Folks still have no power in certain parts of town . Ok let’s play the numbers game again and humer me will not hold you to it I promise . Hearing pembroke and other areas down here could, that’s could get up to 18 inches throw me a number again high and same again for boston high cause it seems like the numbers keep going up. If this pans out and more snow to come your 35 inch call for Boston might be in jeopardy

    1. Perhaps it is because of the run being 18Z.
      Let’s see what the big boy 0Z runs show. If they back off, we’re cooked.

        1. Talk to me after the 0Z runs. I have reason to pause.
          All number may be too high. We shall see.

          HRRR not seeing so much either.

  87. Its a back off for eastern parts of SNE but for CT 18z runs of American models pretty close to the 12z runs.

    1. the 18z GFS only slowly collapses that coastal front through SE Mass and the Cape so that it’s snowing at or above 32F for a while into tomorrow. I really think that’s the reason that the SE Mass amounts are lower.

      You can see that on the sfc temperature maps.

      It still has a decent amount just north and west of Boston.

  92. Brockton declared state of emergency. Schools closed tomorrow because they have not caught up to the last storm. Still power out. They are asking people to stay home and there is concern about more tree limbs down

  93. Either way, this is a winter lover’s week. Many hours with snow in the air from Monday through at least Wednesday, then the Arctic blast for the weekend.

  95. Long time lurker here. Love this site for no BS weather forecasting! (Even tho unlike a lot of you, I hate snow. It creates havoc for me, I don’t have parking and I have to go to work no matter what or I don’t get paid). I drive from Boston to Norwell for work, usually leave around 7:30a. Can’t seem to find an answer yet as to how crappy that commute might be? I’m unsure when the heavy snow is supposed to start interior south shore.

    1. Karen welcome!
      You can certainly hate snow and make that opinion known. 🙂
      The main purpose of this blog is to inform, educate, and have fun chatting about weather, even when we don’t all agree on it. 🙂

      My best guess is you’ll already be in a wind-blown but light snow at that point. Roads will probably be ok, but to be safe I’d add 15 minutes to your time, i.e., leave 15 minutes early. Please check back for updates!

      1. Thanks, TK! I appreciate it. I am lucky to have the option to stay at my parents in Rockland when the weather is bad (see you tomorrow night, mom and dad!) But trying to stick around home in case by some miracle my boss calls work off (frustrating because I don’t work in a medical field like i Keith or any field that NEEDS to operate in bad weather but business is business I suppose!). Thanks again!!

    2. I have to drive to Norwell too…but my drive is only about 5 miles. My place (the med center) very rarely shuts down and the work from home situation can be hazy at time for those of us non-clinical people.

  96. The 18z anything never makes me change a forecast. Holding course. Will review again at 00z. But I think the short range guidance has a decent handle on this particular event.

  98. Still working on a new blog post but I want to get this right so I’m taking my sweet time, and it’s time to pick up Chinese food before the game. 😉

    I promise to get this update done before my second cup of oolong tea. 😀

  99. A general 8-12 from Worcester east! The storm totals are likely to surpass totals from the previous. More wind this time and a fluffier snow.

  100. Heading into work to turn my computer on. Seems we must have lost power at some point at the office. Need to be able to remote into it so I can hopefully work from home tomorrow. No call on school yet for the Silver Lake District.

  102. Waiting on our pizza.
    I am currently feeling uncomfortable
    Regarding storm. Hoping 0z have a
    Calming effect.

    1. If it helps every time I “feel” a bust coming it has the opposite effect. So to help calm you, I officially call a bust with no snow tomorrow. You owe me 🙂

  103. Mike on Channel 5 has Boston in the 6-9″ range and south of Boston as 8-12.” He did say he likes the lower end of the ranges.

    1. I watched him for the first time in a while and didn’t think he seemed at all uncomfortable. Just honest about lower amounts. It was good to see him again. And I’m not disagreeing with you. I am reporting what I saw

  105. On February 8th, the ocean temp at the Boston Harbor Buoy is 42F ….

    If I’m correct, it’s usually at its coldest now at 36F to 38F.

    Both are cold, but to the atmosphere, that’s a huge 2 degrees Celcius difference.

    I’m concerned about how long Boston, south and east remains on the east side of the coastal front. Big difference snowing at 32 or 33F vs snowing at 22 or 23F.

    Also, this could have implications for snow bands and where they set up. If your 20 miles inland, you probably need the coastal front to be stubborn to sink southeastward.

    Just observing, even after today’s beautiful low 40s, trees and power poles still have a decent amount of snow in/on them. So, we’ll see how much more wet snow we get and what they can take.

  106. Answers to Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    1. After the January 22nd snowstorm, the snow total for Washington DC was significantly less than surrounding areas. This was likely due to what?

    A. The moderate effect of Chesapeake Bay
    B. A change in wind direction
    C. A measuring device got lost in the snow
    D. Obstructions near the measurement area

    The answer is C.

    2. This past November, December, and January were the warmest on record for Boston.

    A. True
    B. False

    I believe the answer is B, but AccuWeather says A.

    3. every time denver was in the orange (home colors) they lost by double digits.
      the one time they wore white, they won.

  111. This is how a responsible school district handles no school. If you remember I said last week framingham cancelled too late IMHO. Turns out many kids didn’t get the reverse 911 call and the announcement didn’t go on news stations until 6:00 when high school kids and teachers had already left. The superindent is blaming the reverse 911 glitch but if he’d gotten it to news media when every other town in area did, it would be a moot point.

    This email just went out to all Uxbridge parents

    Dear Parents and Guardians:

    If you have been following the weather updates about tomorrow’s anticipated snow storm, the decision to follow a normal school day, dismiss early, or cancel will be a difficult one.

    If a decision is not made by 11:00 p.m. tonight, a decision will be made by 5:30 a.m.

    Thank you for your attention.

      1. It really is. But even when all those bomb scares were happening and the supposed thing in medway they stayed in close contact with parents.

  113. So far you are right about the game TK…I think Carolina will win still but they need to calm down. I think they are settling in now.

  114. The defense for Denver looks great so far. Got to Cam twice forced a turnover which turned into a touchdown.

        1. I think I am old. I haven’t liked many. Doritoes and Steven Tyler (because I like him) are good. From a business standpoint PayPal and quicken interested me but fell short. I think I missed a couple. But paying big bucks for these. Yikes

  116. I have posted a new blog for you all to have fun with…
    Restart the comment string there and behave! 😀

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