Tuesday Forecast

121 Comments

7:31AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 10-14)…
Low pressure trough slowly traverses the Northeast today and Thursday. The “mild” side of this trough is cold enough to support snow and a disturbance will kick off some areas of very light to light snow this morning and then scattered snow showers and squalls this afternoon. Conditions may be quite variable, especially this afternoon around snow showers, some of which will cause quick accumulation and reduced visibility. Use caution if traveling. As cold air, the first of a 1-2 Arctic punch, flows in on Thursday from the northwest, additional snow showers/squalls are possible but they will be more isolated. Another system will dive through the region late Friday and early Saturday with an additional threat of a period of light snow followed by snow showers/squalls as another system passes just south of the region and tries to toss some steadier snow briefly into the region, especially southern areas. The coldest of the air, accompanied by wind, comes in Saturday and lingers through Sunday.
TODAY: Mainly cloudy. Areas of very light to light snow this morning. Scattered snow showers and squalls this afternoon. Accumulations generally under 1 inch but isolated areas of 1 inch or more may occur. Highs 29-36. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind light W.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated snow showers and snow squalls. Highs 25-32. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
FRIDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Chance of light snow mainly at night. Lows 15-22. Highs 25-32.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow early especially southern areas. Risk of a brief snow squall. Temperatures fall through the 20s. Very windy.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows -10 to -3 interior, -2 to +5 coast and Cape Cod. Highs 5-12. Windy.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 15-19)…
Fair and less cold Presidents Day February 15. Chance of snow/mix/rain February 16 as a system from the west passes. Chance of snow showers and turning colder February 17. Fair and cold February 18-19.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 20-24)…Fair and milder February 20-21. A milder but unsettled period of weather expected February 22-24.

121 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

    1. Good morning.

      It’s still snowing :). Fine sized, misty graupel shower.

      One of our cars is surrounded by 1 and 1/2 to 2 foot snow drifts, meanwhile the path to the house is as clear as can be.

  3. Seems to me that even though we aren’t getting super high amounts that we are in somewhat of a similar pattern to a year ago…two or so threats a week. Going from really nothing to a parade of storms.

    1. Well that is concerning. I will say some schools in this state handled it extremely well by refreshing staff training, remaining in open communication with the families and not caving to pressure to ignore the threats.

  12. We had a solid 2 overnight. I was surprised how much was on my car just now. Nice storm and well forecast. Again.

    1. Yes, I noticed that. It will be interesting if we actually end up being normal due to this late season snowfall.

  15. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Took a final measurement. A measley 4.75 inches. Oh well, it all adds up.

    14th looks awfully cold. Next larger storm threat the 17th.

    Still spitting some snow grains this morning.

    All-in-all this storm was a huge let down. TK correctly lowered the numbers, however,
    others did not. I still do not get the NWS????? Everyone told me not to base anything
    off of the Sunday 18Z NAM. Turns out it was 100% correct.

    btw, GFS seems to want a bit of a norlun set up for tomorrow, while NAM
    has a coastal pass out S&E of us. Will be interesting to see 12Z runs in case things
    change. Not counting on it.

      2. Any clues or are you going to leave us in suspense? 🙂 You know I feel that Woburn is a snow magnet so I wouldn’t be surprised. Serenity now!

    1. What is marty grass? is it like bermuda or fescue?

      My Brother lives in Lafayette, LA not all that far from New Orleans.
      He and his wife will be there.

  18. TK you said someone may see a little more snow tomorrow. Is this the reason from this tweet from meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan or is there a different reason? Many thanks
    Yikes… Total totals on the NAM over 60 tomorrow. Could get some pretty impressive squalls if that’s right.

  19. Please tell me it is not the south shore that may get more snow tomorrow. Comcast is finally coming out fix our broken cable and if they need to cancel I am not sure I will survive. Okay, I will survive but I have two young boys that are getting tired of playing Xbox and watching movies. Thank God they had school today!

    1. Not sure. It may be like waiting to see which area the thunderstorms form on a hot humid summer day.

  21. 12 GFS has next Tuesday’s storm in a nice position, but the precip field is extremely tight…doesn’t seem right.

  22. Logan should end up with a final total of 6.5″. Locations along the water had a bit more snow than the neighborhoods like Brighton, JP, West Roxbury, etc.

  23. All in all, ended up with a nice fluffy 5-6 inches in Natick. That was our 4th “plowable” storm of the season, along with one “shovelable” mixed precipitation event. I’m leaving for Florida Saturday, coming back Thursday the 18th–hoping for one big storm after that. TK did say we’d get 1/2 our seasonable snowfall in one storm…hoping that is still yet to come (but not between 2/13 and 2/18)!

  24. CMC also has a big storm for Next Tuesday….closer to the coast so it starts as snow and then transitions to rain.

      2. it could change, if trends are going to be used, the models have been wrong as of late. also the trends have been shifting systems west of where models have had it before

          1. I will also add, the ensemble members are split between going well to the west or well to the east on both the gfs and the Canadian.

  25. Latest run of the GFS has the 2M temps at around 20 in Boston Friday at midnight and down to 5 at 1pm and -2 by 7pm with a high in the upper single digits on Sunday. That would be crazy but not unheard of.

    2. We have dinner plans Saturday night. Not sure my wife will want to go
      out if it is that cold. I thought I might hold off until Sunday. Looks like not.

    1. Another look at the Euro.

      It looks very very wet around here with this. Of course it is 8 days out,
      so much can and likely will change. We shall see.
      If it tracks more to the East it “could” be the BIG ONE TK has been mentioning.

      http://imgur.com/Q9QYFqH

  27. Plenty of time for that to change.
    JP Dave do you have the latest stability for 12z run of the EURO. I saw you posted the 0z earlier.
    Many Thanks.

  29. That 12z Euro for next Wednesday is a monster. Heavy rain all of New England with that track and 70mph+ winds on the Cape and south coast. 1-2 feet of snow west of the Hudson valley in NY. If that thing ticks east, look out. My concern (despite the record cold that will be here two days earlier) is that the high in Canada is going to be retreating and there may be nothing to lock the cold air in and prevent this thing from being a coastal hugger or inside runner.

    1. Of course. What else should we expect!
      There is some hope. The GFS is tracking it just off shore. 😀

  30. The one good thing its over a week and certainly as we have seen nothing is locked in that far out and changes still happen 24 hours prior to the event.

    1. Agreed, and although the 12z CMC looked a lot like the Euro, the GFS had a much better off shore track (although it was lacking on precip). Need a blend of the two.

  31. 12z RGEM delivers a general 1-2″ across the region tomorrow, with up to 3″ SE CT, coastal RI, and the south coast of MA.

  32. Couple quick thoughts…

    Keep an eye on tomorrow. Could be a few inches in some locations.

    ECMWF has a decent handle on the upper pattern but is probably overdone with next week’s storm threat. So far I don’t think that one is the “one”. But I think it may end up being either a rain ending as snow event or a snow/rain/snow type thing – not that big.

    Serious cold but for a brief time this weekend ahead, after which we moderate temporarily. More cold lurks behind that moderation.

    Speaking of moderation – it’s temporarily thawed enough out there for me to do some cleanup work around the walks/driveway, so off I go. Check back in a while!

    1. Slacker. Should have been outside like me at midnight shoveling HA. I was able to get the roof done in the morning but looking back it was so powdery and lacking in consistent depth I could have gotten away with not.

      1. I’ve been outside at 2:30AM twice but that was out of necessity. I like to make it neat but I still let nature do her part too. Eliminate unnecessary work. 🙂

    1. I’ll take that! Wonder if it will hold…tough winter know what model to trust and at what point. Wouldn’t surprise me if we got a foot tomorrow HA.

  35. Hi everyone. Long time fan of the site and all the information and antics that go back and forth among everyone. When I tell others about WHW I usually describe it as “Downton Abbey for geeks”….

    I’m enjoying a major change in roof issues this winter due to having Mass Save out to put more insulation in our attic. This weekend will be a good test. I know I have some leakage over one recessed light but overall we’ve noticed a much more even heat in the house this winter and, of course, the warm temps haven’t hurt the oil bill either!

    2. Hi CC3. So nice to have you join in the sometimes insanity and always family.

      I’m the innocent one 😈

  36. TK – Does the arctic weekend put a final end to the El Niño pattern and bring us mostly coastals for the rest of winter?

    1. No. The arctic dump is not going to impact the temperatures in that part of the ocean. It’s a result of the pattern, however. El Nino fades with increasing rapidity soon, but that does not translate to coastal storms necessarily. We’ve actually had several of those around even during the pattern. I see an even drier pattern ahead.

  38. Hey guys . I just woke up again for the second time it was a 24 hr shift and I’m beat big time . Defently a good amount of snow here I think more than Friday . I don’t see any information above pertaining to snow for this weekend particular Saturday, is Saturday still on the table ? I am really hoping I get to have the entire weekend off with no snow till Tuesday as I have Monday the holiday off.

    1. If anything happens Saturday it’s first thing in the morning. After that you’re good until at LEAST late Monday.

      1. Yea I remember you saying that last night but nobody is really talking about it well Harvey said something just now and if anything at all maybe very minor . Thanks Tk.

  41. Not sure about Logan, but I know that nearby Blue Hill, after over 8″ of snow yesterday, is almost right at normal snowfall for this time of year. Not bad for this type of winter. Logan may have more of a deficit, but they obviously deal with the ocean a lot more. A wretched snow season up north here though. We got about an inch or maybe two here in Plymouth, NH last night. A big deal for this winter. Parts of ME have done alright but NH and VT can’t buy a decent storm. All the big snowstorms are too far south, and the ones that have had an impact up here have been so far west that they’ve been mainly rain.

    Tough to predict much beyond the coming cold blast this weekend. I see pretty good signals for a warm-up in the 2/17-2/23 range. Beyond then, really not sure. Snowfall looks below normal for the next week or two though, so those deficits may creep back up.

    1. I was looking at the Killington snow report earlier and was amazed to see that they have received only 34″ of snow to date on the season. I think the Cape has received more than that. As a point of reference, their average seasonal snowfall is over 250″. They will be lucky to reach a third of that this season.

      1. My brother lives in NH. My cousin in Stowe. They are hurting. And anything they make is turning to ice with the melts.

  43. NWS regarding snow potential tomorrow:

    SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WEDNESDAY
    MORNING ACROSS CONNECTICUT AND WESTERN-CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS…THEN SPREADING EASTWARD INTO RHODE ISLAND AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED HOWEVER A FEW HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME RESULTING IN ROADS BECOMING SNOW COVERED.

    THIS MAY IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE ACROSS CONNECTICUT AND
    WESTERN-CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING THE GREATER
    HARTFORD/SPRINGFIELD AREA. SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS RHODE ISLAND AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE LATE DAY COMMUTE ACROSS THIS AREA.

    THE GREATEST RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS IS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CONNECTICUT AND MASSACHUSETTS DURING THE MORNING AND THEN IN THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND. THERE IS A LOW RISK THAT A FEW LOCATIONS IN THIS AREA COULD SEE LOCALIZED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES WHILE MOST LOCATIONS EXPERIENCE LESS.

  44. Also from NWS regarding this weekend’s cold:

    09/12Z EPS PROBABILITIES HAVE AN OVER 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW
    TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW ZERO AND OVER 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW NEGATIVE 10 DEGREES!

    Yikes!

      1. Same here. I need to know that I should dress in layers, cover exposed skin, don’t stay outside more than 15 minutes, etc. etc. etc. 🙂

  45. I don’t think you’ll see a whole lot of unnecessary hype on upcoming cold. The proper advising should and will go out. Boston did go below zero 3 times last Winter, which was a bit unusual. This particular instance may be one of the more harsh episodes since December 1980. And take note of the fact I said MAY be, not WILL be. There is a very nice core of cold available to get yanked down right over this area. We’ll see if the potential is maximized. Frozen pipes and other cold weather related problems will be very much an issue.

          1. Yes, and that is pretty damn cold.

            People will say things like “Yeah but Minneapolis gets down to -30 all the time, that’s nothing!”

            It’s all relative. Super cold outbreaks in the Middle East, for example, with lows in the teens above zero, have had huge casualties.

    1. Of course. But the issue with snow conditions (mostly manmade because of the dry pattern) is that the in between warm days melts the snow. Then it refreezes and forms an ice base. My brother said there has been an unusual number of injuries. He, however, just had a hip replacement so it makes it easier for him to not be upset about not skiing for the first time in 70 years.

      1. He’s on hospitality ski group (was ski patrol) sunnapee but mentioned another in that area I cannot remember and said friend mentioned injury trouble at either cannon or wildcat. I paid more attention to location than mountain name as I know he skis all. I never skied gun stock. Is that about same distance north? How are they avoiding melt and freeze?

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