Friday Forecast

195 Comments

7:24AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 12-16)…
It’s already pretty cold, especially in comparison to the way much of the winter has been to this point. And it’s going to get even colder, as a surge of pure Arctic air arrives for 2/3 of the long weekend, which includes Valentines Day Sunday and Presidents Day Monday. Plan accordingly. 🙂 The introduction to the coldest of the air will be marked by a wave of low pressure that passes just south of New England late tonight and brings snow of minor accumulation to far southeastern MA, especially Cape Cod. Additional snow showers may occur here through Saturday with a strong north wind and increasingly cold air. The actual arctic front will sweep through southeastern New England Saturday morning and midday, and may be accompanied by a snow shower or squall. After this front clears the region, the temperatures will drop and we’ll see a challenging of record lows Sunday morning and record cold high temperatures Sunday during the day, along with dangerously cold wind chill values Saturday night into Sunday. If you want to find a positive, it’s that this deep chill will not be hanging around, as the progressiveness of the pattern allows us to warm all the way back to the 20s Monday and further to the 40s Tuesday, during the passage of the next storm system, the center of which will likely cruise up the Hudson River Valley, turning any snow/ice at the start of the system early Tuesday over to rain for the bulk of its occurrence.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Clouds increase late. Highs 18-25. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clouding up. A period of snow southeastern MA with accumulation of 1/2 to 2 inches possible. Lows 10-17. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Any early snow ends Cape Cod. Scattered snow showers/squalls sweeping west to east morning through midday with briefly low visibility and minor snow accumulation in some locations. Additional snow showers return to Cape Cod. Highs 18-25 morning then falling back through the 10s. Wind chill below 0 by afternoon. Wind light SW to W early, then W to NW increasing to 15-30 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to N for a while later in the day.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear except clouds and snow showers possible Cape Cod. Bitter cold.. Lows -15 to -5 interior, -5 to +5 immediate coast. Wind N to NW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chills as low as -25 to -30 at times.
SUNDAY: Sunny. Arctic sea smoke over coastal water. Bitter cold. Highs 5-12. Wind NW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill often below -10.
MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Mostly sunny day. Clouding up at night. Lows -5 to +10, coldest interior valleys, least cold Cape Cod. Highs in the 20s.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Pre-dawn to early-morning snow/ice/rain becoming all rain. Temperatures rise 20s to 30s overnight. Highs 43-50 late-day or evening.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 17-21)…
Windy/colder with a chance of snow showers February 17. Fair and cold February 18 and milder February 19. Mild with a few rain/snow shower possible February 20. Fair and a little colder February 21.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 22-26)…Milder with minor rain/mix event possible in the February 22-24 period. Fair and slightly colder late in the period.

195 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

    1. Still in shorts! Don’t get me wrong if I worked outside I would not but on a mission to wear shorts all winter. The weekend might be my undoing ha.

  3. Thanks, TK…

    Good morning, everyone!

    It’s a brrrrtiful winter morning!

    HAPPY BIRTHDAY, MOM!!!!

  4. Joshua you will be loving today. Just started the car in my shorts and tshirt…now this is what I am talking about!

  6. GettingBetterAllTheTime

    You have been reading for years so know well that I am rarely at a loss for words. I find that I am now, however. I read your post earlier this morning and was a bit too misty to be able to see the keys to respond. I will agree with TK that your post is easily one of my favorites. Thank you.

    Reading as you have, you also know that if a comment touches a memory, I will share it. One of my all time favorite songs is In My Life. If I mention the Lexington Sheraton, people just look at me blankly (although I can have that affect for other reasons also). Mac and I lived in Lexington for a year before purchasing this house. Along with frequent trips to the Lexington Sheraton for dinner, my inlaws held our rehearsal dinner there. Thank you for refreshing that memory. What replaced it?

    As far as being a worthwhile contributor……….you already are, so post away. My weather knowledge extends to being able to sort of interpret model links, read the radar with some confidence and quite accurately look out the window to determine if it is sunny, raining or snowing 🙂

    To all lurkers……….don’t be shy. This week has been amazing in that our already strong WHW family has become even stronger.

    So much for being at a loss for words………again, a heartfelt thank you! Thanks to you and others who are joining us….This Blog is Getting Better All The Time!

    2. Thanks Vicki! So glad to have brought back good memories! And I won’t be as shy in the future – thanks to this incredibly warm welcome!

  7. Thanks TK !

    Happy Birthday to Captain Fatastics mom and welcome to getting better all the time !

    That was a cold walk from the teachers parking lot into the school this morning !!

  10. Good Morning everyone! My name is Ken and I signed up a few days ago but my first post got lost in the current snow storm we were experiencing.

    I reside in north central CT. I am good friends with Mark (here on the blog) who got me into this site. I find weather to be fascinating and frustrating at times. I am excited to learn from all of you and contribute when i can. Thanks you TK for putting this all together and i hope to hear from all of you soon!

    1. Welcome Ken!!

      If I am not mistaken that is 6 new posters in the last several days.
      OUTSTANDING!!!

      Welcome all again!

    5. Where are you, Ken? We just might be neighbors.
      I got myself out of bed at 7am to check the temp and found the outside thermometer at -2F. Take the BDL temp, subtract a few degrees and you got what we have here in the winter.

      1. Mike I am in South Windsor. Its been a very sunny and cold morning thus far. Fortunately I have a wood stove in my home so its perfect to keep the house nice and toasty in times like these. Also sparing my furnace from working overtime.

    6. Welcome Ken and all the other new bloggers this week. That’s 4 of us in CT now – TK is going to need to expand his “WHW forecast area”!

      Mike, I had -2F on my thermometer this morning in Coventry as well. Ken is in South Windsor.

  11. Good morning and thank you TK and Welcome Gettingbetter…..

    Rather crisp out there this morning, but we can take it. Not big deal.

    It is Sunday AM for which I am concerned. Just took a look at the Euro 2M temps
    for Sunday AM. -10 comes into the Boston Neighborhoods. I am not saying it
    will be -10, just saying that the Euro stripes the -10 isotherm almost snug to the coast, certainly capturing many of the Boston neighborhoods like JP, Roslindale, W. Roxbury, Hyde park, Brighton and Allston and perhaps more.

    Talk about BRRR today is a day at the beach compared to what likely will happen
    Sunday morning.

  12. I just hope the T will be running properly as I will be working the entire weekend starting today. This should be a good test for them…especially Sunday.

  13. We are entering into drip your faucets weather the next few days. I started dripping mine last night. Don’t know if it really helps but it gives me peace of mind.

      1. Thanks John. I always thought it was silly but I guess in principle, if the water it moving in the pipes, even slightly, its harder to freeze than water not moving. I only drip faucets on external walls too, which in my case that’s only the kitchen faucet and ive never had a frozen pipe.

    2. We dripped last night also and left cabinet doors open. No, it is not 100% foolproof. However, with two plumber sons in law who handle the frozen pipes, they have not had to go to a house that dripped. All houses with frozen pipes have not dripped. It should also be hot water drip and the furthest faucet from where water comes in. In our case since we have two additions, we have two sinks that we drip. And now I am feeling wet 🙂

      1. We didn’t drip last night, but will tonight and the next
        2 nights. Our house has never had a frozen pipe. knock, knok, knock on wood. Neighbor’s homes have. What a pain that
        is.

        I worry though, as this will be the coldest since we have since we installed 2 newer energy efficient furnaces (yes 2 family) that do not emit has much heat as the old octopus style furnaces we used to have. The main water line comes in and runs along the inside of the foundation which is field stone. The nearest furnace is NOT throwing much heat in that direction.

        1. We’re in a similar situation when we bought our house 3 years ago we replaced an old oil burning furnace with an energy efficient gas furnace. The old oil one acted like a stove and warmed the entire basement. Now, not to much. I’m worried though since I’m in the process of finishing the basement I can’t afford any pipes bursting so we got these water sensor alarms that u can place on the floor near the water heater and major pipe lines.

        2. We replaced a burner several years ago that also threw enough heat to keep some pipes warm so I understand exactly what you mean.

          I suspect we didn’t need to drip last night either, JPD. Our house is a slab so pipes run in the attic and some walls. These houses are famous for freezing pipes and if they freeze in the attic, as you now, the water runs down. It is a disaster. I am hoping the folks who own the house we just signed P&S on will drip those pipes. The house is currently empty.

  14. Was JJ leaving this am for FL? There were no injuries but I believe an unmanned van hit a Jet Blue plane headed for Tampa and the passengers had to change planes.

  17. Thank you, TK.

    Welcome, newcomers to the best weather blog in the universe.

    Glorious morning. Beautiful sunrise. Clear, crisp, invigorating. Nothing beats it in my book.

    1. Too cold for a run? 😉 My wife went for a run last evening. She loves to run in the cold and even she came in after and was like, bad idea.

      1. SIL and dog went for a run last night also and SIL had some trouble with breathing the cold air. Dog seemed to love it.

  18. I believe Wind Chill Warnings are issued only when the situation is life threatening. I am not sure, but in MA that may mean a wind chill of -25 degrees F for 3 or more consecutive hours.

    Wind Chill Warnings are determined state by state. I “think” that in Miami Florida, Wind Chill Warnings are issued when the actual wind chill is +35 degrees F.

  19. Hello, I have been lurking here for a long time. Can’t wait to visit every morning to
    see what is new. Such knowledgeable people! I feel as though I know you all.
    We are all weather nuts in my family.
    Finally got up the courage to post seeing there are many lurkers joining this week.
    Loozie

    1. Welcom to yet another Lurker.
      This is National Lurker’s Week here on the WHW blog.

      I think it is fantastic. 😀

  20. I did a little digging (well, Eric Fisher did for me) last night and found out that it has never stayed at zero for the daytime high temperature ever in Boston’s history. The coldest daytime maximum ever was +2 above in December, 1917.

    Orange, Norwood and the East Taunton airports are usually the most notorious spots for coldest temperatures on days like these. My home in the western part of Taunton usually is a little warmer than East Taunton ASOS. It was +3.8 this morning en mi casa.

    Can’t wait to see what the temp is at my house on Sunday morning. The coldest morning ever recorded in Taunton was a mind-numbing -35 in 1904. There was a massive fire at the Taunton State Hospital that night. I cannot imagine what that night was like, especially at the beginning of the 20th century!

    Enjoy your winter break, Tom!

    1. If I had been asked if Boston had ever had a recorded minus temp during the day, I would have guessed yes. Very interesting info, Captain Fantastic. I wonder if we have any records from the founders who kept journals re temps prior to our record keeping.

      We were at 1.8 here around 5:30 this morning.

  21. So it’s hot water you run not cold . I remember my father doing it as a kid and I’ve done it on occasion I think I’ll run each night starting tonight . I do have finished base.

      1. Mpemba effect. One of the few things I remember from my youth science classes. Perhaps because somehow in my mind it related to weather.

  22. I thought I’d do a quick post after seeing all the new people arrive. I haven’t posted that much this year, but always an avid reader. Not at all excited about the rain event sandwiched between very cold temps, however, the rains will be of some help towards the deficit. TK do you agree or think we will lose most of it, plus the snow melt, into the rivers because of frozen soils?
    Well, I’m off into the backyard to get several days of cord wood into the garage for a few cold days ahead. Stay warm and safe everyone!

    1. Hi diamond…..are you cutting wood or is it cut and has to move in? Back in the 70s with the energy crisis, I used to go to a wood dump in Waltham (not sure if it is still there) and split wood with my brother. Good work for a youngun’ Now I have it delivered.

      Enjoy the fresh air!

      1. It’s all cut and split. (yes it’s hard work, but good work) I do it over the spring and summer and have it stacked to season it for a couple months before use. I do save a lot on oil. By burning wood and getting a central air heat pump system, it’s quite rewarding. Just preparing for fuel prices to rise in the future!
        Take care!

          1. Good question, my wife already said she wants no part in this, haha. I might set up the dog with my go-pro. That might turn out to be more interesting than I intended

    1. Darn, I was worried you’d say that. People say “wasted cold”, but you don’t often here “wasted rainfall” Great blog TK……….Keep at the OUTSTANDING work!

  27. Regarding the Tuesday storm, interesting shift to the east on the 12z runs. GFS and GGEM are well east of their prior runs.

    Still a quick change to rain on the GFS for most of New England but a change to heavy snow on the back side with significant accumulation for eastern NY, Berkshires, and VT. Even a few inches into CT and central MA. That is great news for the ski areas if this verifies.

    12z GGEM is farther east than the GFS, so much so that it gets even DC into the heavy snow. Good up front thump for SNE as well…maybe 2-5″? Will be interesting to see if the Euro follows suit.

    1. Interesting.

      That’s an Eastward Shift of about 100 miles give or take. That is significant!

      Also, just to note: It looks as though the NAM wants it to take a similar
      more Easterly track. Perhaps there is still a chance on this thing after all???

      We shall see. Probably not, but hey we can dream.

        1. A slug of heavy rain is inevitable but if we can bookend it with a thump of snow on either end and avoid a 12 hour torch in the 50’s that would be an improvement.

          TK, do you think the models are overdoing the threat of a few inches of back end snow in central MA and northern CT? Even the 0z Euro showed this and it had a more westerly track. I am always skeptical of back end snow accumulation on storms that end up tracking over or west of us. It never seems to materialize.

        2. Of course, I saw the Euro, but I must say I was at least
          briefly encouraged with the GFS and CMC and I found the NAM to be intriguing.

          We shall see. The atmosphere is a tricky beast!

  28. WeatherWiz, You’re a brave person, wearing shorts today. I did my morning jog at around 6:20am, but not in shorts. The first half-mile is a challenge, but that’s part of the fun. After that, it’s pure enjoyment of the scenery, the sunrise and all its vivid winter colors, the Charles and all the bridges connecting Boston to Cambridge. Today is a perfect 10. I think tomorrow and Sunday morning will be more challenging, even to me. But, with some layers I’ll still be loving it.

    2. My son in law is still wearing shorts. I’ll see how he does also this weekend. I have yet to wear a jacket. Just a sweatshirt on the colder days but one layer. A woman gave me what for last Friday when I went into the local hardware store in a cotton long sleeved tee 🙂

    3. Well like I said if I was working outside I likely wouldn’t. Frankly pants suck HA. I’d rather wear shorts and a jacket if I can get away with it. Glad the run was good!

  29. Charlie, you and I are on a different wavelength, which is perfectly fine. I think differences of perception and opinion are what makes human interaction interesting and fun. You will be enjoying a day of mostly rain and mid to upper 40s (Tuesday), which is not my cup of tea. I’ll be enjoying the single digits and below (Sunday), which is not your thing.

  31. If the more easterly track materializes, it may be tough to get out of the 40’s.

    Why would you guys be working outside Tuesday in what essentially is going to be tropical storm like conditions? Must suck to work for Charlies Landscaping!!

  32. Back end snows are rare, but not out of the question. I recall a storm in December 2009 or 2010, a week before Christmas, which gave us a good slug of snow (8 inches or so) in Boston, then a period of sleet and even some plain rain, and then back to several inches of snow.

  33. Wow, any sustained warmup is all but gone for the rest of February on the 12z GFS!

    And lo and behold, there is the deep trough in the east re-emerging with TK’s big east coast storm appearing around the 26th. Just need to nudge it a bit east and that’s our big one.

  34. 12z Euro does NOT follow suit with the more easterly tracks of the GFS and GGEM. Tuesday storm track from roughly Binghamton to Montreal.

    2. It is likely to be rain, but we have 2 computer models saying hey wait just a minute. So we shall see.

      TK has said all along that he favors the Euro, so if that is the case you will
      be 100% rain, but as go for snow has pointed out today is Friday and the storm isn’t until Tuesday, so don’t be so sure. 😀

      I have Mets say the storm will go OTS and we get hammered. Want to hear a classic? This is way back in the Dick Albert days and he came on the radio
      at 5PM and forecast a big snow storm. The only problem was he did NOT
      stick his head out of the window to see that it was RAINING!!!! Yes it was
      a COMPLETE RAIN storm and it did not change over to snow. So there you go. You just never know. 😀 😀

  36. What’s wrong with today? It is a beautiful Winter’s Day. I have ZERO
    problem with it whatsoever. I can of like the milky sky. 😀

  37. Total snowfall @ Logan to date = 24.0″

    I had no idea Logan received 0.2″ yesterday…talk about “sneaky” snow. 😉

    TK’s forecast range = 25-35″ (almost there) 😀

    1. Pretty cool isn’t it.
      “Perhaps” we could SNEAK that in early tomorrow AM, either with a juicy snow squall OR perhaps the edge of the ocean storm or the edge of the inverted trough
      activity???? Who knows.

      1. Judging by observation of the sky (especially when I look west and see the cloud formations) there’s going to be some energy with this Arctic front. I wouldn’t rule out snow squalls overnight and into tomorrow.

            1. Oh I did the whole page. Just as well, now you can click on the most likely, the min
              and the max. Even the MAX only brings
              1 inch to Boston.

              They are NOT bullish on much snow around these parts.

              1. Thanks for sharing the maps. True. They’re not bullish. Interesting to see that the front will likely produce the most snow in the Adirondacks and Cape Cod and the Islands. Between there doesn’t appear to much action. We’ll see. These things are hard to forecast. Perhaps because we’ve already been hit with a rather vigorous cold front – cold has settled in – that may stem the energy level somewhat.

  39. Just wondering if any thoughts on Tuesday storm of rain freezing from the ground up due to such low temps preceding the storm , at least in the first few hours ??

  41. Loozie I have approved you. Welcome!

    Anybody who would like to see that message, it was posted at 9:51AM today. I just got a chance to sit down at my laptop and do some admin stuff…

  42. It clouded up more quickly than I had forecast today. We got a ribbon of high cloudiness lined right up for the area and it thickened and lowered enough to go from cirrostratus to altostratus. The classic “snow sky” with the dim sun disc still visible at times and greyed out at other times….’cept this time it isn’t leading to a big snowstorm. 😉

    1. Tk, how did you manage to get them all on board this week.
      Keep up the great work whatever it is you are doing to get them here.
      We all love it!

      THANKS

      1. Sometimes all it takes is a little encouragement. It can be hard to post on a blog or any site if you feel that maybe your posts won’t be relevant or “contribute”. I wanted to remind those reading that they don’t have to know everything about everything weather-related to chat weather.

        I’m a met. We have other mets here. We have non-mets that know a lot (like you). We have enthusiasts, casual observers, and maybe some who like to pop in just to get an opinion. I don’t want anybody feeling left out if they don’t know what “GFS” stands for, for example. This blog is not only for information but also for learning. 🙂

        I like to keep it simple though. There will be more in the future regarding WHW but the blog will always be part of that. 🙂

        1. Awesome TK. We love what you do and REALLY appreciate it, even if we disagree or don’t like your forecast. 😀

          1. Certainly, sir. And I’ll admit here, you are the only non-meteorologist that has ever made me re-think a forecast and change it. 😀

            1. As a non-met layman what I find myself doing is reading everyone’s opinions / thoughts here and kind of creating a sort of informal 100 percent WH-based “composite” of sorts with my own conclusions based on a sorted weighted average of everyone’s posts here based on my own recollections of frequent contributors past accuracy – which can also evolve as a system gets closer. For example I might take TK’s thoughts/opinions at 3-1 or 4-1 odds long or short range whereas for someone else a week out I might think they represent only 1-1 but 2 days out they tend to be really, really accurate so at that point I weigh their posts more heavily in my own opinion of what is likely to happen. By getting to know everyone over time as I lurked (and lurked) and by learning from and reaping from your various strengths, this has led to pretty amazing weather accuracy for a layman. I wish the TV Mets would do the same with this amazing resource if they don’t already. Given what I see On TV I have a strong hunch they don’t..

              I must say though that I was surprised to learn how relatively young TK is – says me of the same general age – as given your unbelievable anecdotal recall of storms and great gut instinct I kind of assumed you to be an elder bearer of some sort of old school notebook that contained chronologically your handwritten notes of the story behind decades of storms. But I guess your gift of encompassing computer models as only one of several tools, and of always poking your head out the window (unlike Dick Albert apparently) is truly just a natural gift / talent coupled with your technical training. As everyone says – thanks for sharing that talent with us and for working so hard to create and maintain this community. Glad a handful of us lurkers poked our heads in this week so you know for sure the impact and benefits of your work and thoughts and how far they go — and that goes for all of the other regulars here too – thanks for sharing your combined knowledge = priceless.

              1. Your analysis process is excellent. I had not stopped to think that is what I do when reading. And yes, if Mets could or would do the same, it would make a great difference.

                My oldest grandchild, at the age of eight and fifty cents, is an old soul. He recognizes things innately. I think TK is an old soul as well and has an inner gift for meteorological knowledge. Some might not think of old soul as a compliment. To me, it is, as it is an incredibly special gift. TK, I hope you don’t mind.

        2. Perfect, TK. I have learned a lot with a ton more to learn by asking questions. In addition to the knowledge that so many on the blog hold, they have always seemed to totally enjoy imparting wisdom. There is absolutely no question too small or too large.

          I probably have the least knowledge of all and have never felt anything but welcomed and comfortable asking. And believe it or not, I am an introvert.

          It is a great family but one that happily opens its arms to all newcomers. The very best part of this week was seeing so many new names here.

  45. Tk what are the chances for Impressive snow squalls tonight/tomorrow??

    From what I can see, looks like another no show.

    Still could change.

    To me it looks like a swing and a miss with:

    1. Ocean Storm
    2. Inverted Trough action (down East coastal Maine gets all of that)
    3. Snow Squalls

    3 swing and misses. STRIKE 3 YOU’RE OUT!!!

    1. I agree fully with 2 of those. The squalls though are not necessarily a no-show. I’m not so sure we see a solid line, but probably a cluster or 2 of snow showers and possibly a heavier squall. Impossible to tell where, of course, until they form. This would be right along the leading edge of the true arctic air as the front swept through during Saturday morning. This, of course, is separate from the inverted trough, of which there will probably be 2, a larger one in Maine and a smaller one that clips Cape Cod.

      1. 😀

        Snow squalls are tricky. What about what Mark posted?
        Is the fact that it is already so cold, inhibit any snow squall
        activity?

        In the past I’ve seen a situation like this where one really cold airmass is taking over an already very cold air mass.
        The snow squalls were impressively blinding as in 0 visibility.
        Can’t remember accumulation, probably 1/2 to 1 inch quickly. :D’

        So I have no clue. I’d lean to no rather than yes, but we shall see.

        1. It doesn’t take much to wring out the atmosphere. It’s all compressed. You get very shallow convection and can still get heavy squalls. I’m going to talk to a colleague who is really good with squalls and get his take…

  46. re: Tuesday
    Something really funky looking with the 18Z GFS.
    500MB does not seem as robust. I do not see a discernible low center. (not yet anyway)
    What’s up with that?

      1. See below.
        It means a weaker system tracking more to the East.
        It means some front end snow.
        It means lots of snow for up North.

        WARNING! DANGER WILL ROBINSON! DANGER!!!

        EURO tracks well West with a RAINORAMA.

  47. What is going on.

    Now the GFS wants to deliver a more robust trailing system with much
    better 500MB support??????

    Must be playing games with us.

    1. 😆

      yea about that……..definitely an introvert but innocent isn’t a word I’d use …..trouble maker perhaps…..opinionated…..comtrolling……protective to a fault……nope, not seeing innocent on that list. 😈

  50. One thing I really enjoy about the blog is seeing how people’s personalities come through over time. Much of the conversation is about the weather and I enjoy following the models and learning bits about the technical aspects of modeling and forecasting. But the balance with personal observations and life experiences makes it sort of a slow developing plot line. I’ve never been much of a blogger but seeing how people remember facts and events from the narratives over time makes me more open to the role of online communities or even courses (I am a teacher).

    Stay warm this weekend!

    1. We have other teachers as I’m sure you know. What do you teach if you don’t mind my asking.

      So a sort of Peyton Place?? 😉

    2. Welcome . I never was on any kind of blog before here . Well years ago I stumbled across the wbz blog and that’s how I found this but I never was apart of that blog like I am here. Again is Tk running a special here like t-shirts or food lol I’m kidding but I never gave seen so many new posters in just a few days . All of you don’t be shy and no question is stupid . When you are on here as long as I’ve Been and others here you do feel a personal connection. Welcome to all of you .

  51. So, I am kind of torn with this huge mosquito issue going on and everything but my professor just sent me an email asking for students to take part in his research project down in coastal Brazil in the small state of Sergipe to study the coast of the region. Kind of torn right now

    2. The virus is only bad for pregnant women but can apparently be sexually transmitted. If u happen to contract it Matt it’s only in your system for a week or 2. So unless you’re tryin to get your significant other pregnant, u should be ok

    3. Matt,

      Prior to 2015, Zika virus outbreaks occurred in areas of Africa, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific Islands. In May 2015, the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) issued an alert regarding the first confirmed Zika virus infections in Brazil. Currently, outbreaks are occurring in many countries. There even have been a few cases in the US but these cased have been imported. Zika virus will likely continue to spread and it will be difficult to determine how and where the virus will spread over time. Of importance, over 80% people infected with Zika are asymptomatic and don’t even realize they carry disease. Hope this helps. Good luck!

      1. Thank you Arod. Excellent information. If they do not know they carry it and it is sexually transmitted, is that a concern? Also, if a person has the virus and that person is bitten by a mosquito, does it then bring it to this area?

        1. Answer to question number 1: Yes and no Vicki. Yes, because the Zika virus is of particular concern to women who are pregnant as AceMaster alluded to. There is low risk of infection being passed to the newborn both during pregnancy and especially during delivery. While the virus is generally benign, it’s particularly more virulent in the very young, the very old, and the immunocompromised population.

          Answer to question 2: Cases in the US thus far have only been imported. This means that people in the US with Zika virus contracted the virus while overseas. While there is some literature that suggests that the virus can be transmitted sexually, the majority of the cases occur in those who were inflicted with the bite of an infected mosquito. As long as those mosquitos remain overseas, an epidemic remains unlikely. It should be noted that such mosquitos with the disease typically reside in warm subtropical locations closer to the equator; however, cases as far north as Mexico and the Caribbean Islands have become more common.

          Hope that answers your questions!

        2. I re-read your question. I apologize. I have misinterpreted your question. Your question is a great one. The answer is quite possibly, YES! If a human has the infection and a mosquito feeds of the human, the mosquito quite possibly can get the infection and therefore spread the disease to others. This is of concern. Hopefully, those traveling internationally will be educated and aware so that they can take the proper precautions to avoid being bitten by mosquitos. Of course long sleeves, pants, hats and repellents are a good idea.

          1. Arod. Thanks for both posts. The media has a serious history of hyping things such as this. I have one child who is expecting so it is a concern on that front. However, we are always careful because of west Nile and EEE. It does amaze me that there has been a vaccine for horses for EEE for decades and nothing for people.

            I thought I had heard that there is one case in this country transmitted sexually….maybe TX? I could easily have heard I correctly

            I appreciate your response and the time you took for them

  52. As always TK, thank you for everything that you do! You have a wonderful blog and I have felt part of the woodshill family for a long time now. It’s true about what ChaseCarry implied. You can almost get a good sense for who the other bloggers are and whom they represent. We owe it to you for bringing this community together to discuss weather and other personal discussions.

  53. Back to weather now. Due to the progressive nature of the pattern, the cold air will not be too difficult to dislodge except for close to the surface, especially in low lying areas/valleys. Ice is more likely to be the main threat rather than snow prior to the change over to RAIN.

    1. The configuration is such that a flood of warm air moves Northward way ahead of the system. We have to get it to track more to the East to at least spare
      the ski areas. 😀 We shall see if the Euro hold course tonight.

  54. Since I will likely be going to stratton next weekend, I hope it is rain here and they get a good snow storm.

    1. Not sure the totals means as much for Winter. The other day when there
      were posts about the totals meaning impressive snow squalls. Well guess what?
      Nothing but a few harmless snow showers. So honestly I don’t know what to
      expect, except I am not feeling it. Pretty cool switch the letters and change the word. 😀

  56. Well 45 vs 50 is not going to make much difference if it’s wet and breezy after a morning start as snow (briefly).

    I think the GFS from 18z is out to lunch, the Euro is a TOUCH too far west. 12z GFS / CMC blend works for now I think things pan out.

  57. That entire 18z GFS is just messed up. I love the 500mb configuration that looks like an amusement park ride February 24-27. Do a loop to see what I mean.

    Hmm I blame the gravity ripple from the colliding black holes. 😛

      1. That’s a good observation Vickie. That would be your low pressure center near Montreal and the squall line is the trailing cold front.

  60. ChaseCarry3….I forgot to add certifiable to my list of attributes. Or maybe I’m selling myself short because it all revolves around weather. I have the window wide open near where I am sitting and love the smell and feel of the air

    Also, does chaseCarry have a significance?

  61. Chase Carry is a three mile section of the Allagash River in Maine, a favorite place of mine when I get time to go be outside for a week or so. Sorry this is disjointed from the other posts. I’ve been coming and going – thanks for asking. They are looking at -13 deg up there tonight! Ouch!

  64. Good morning all. No one up yet?

    No snow squalls yet. I see a broken line of weak snow showers almost to the
    Boston area, but Squadoosh for snow squalls. 😀

      1. re: Arctic front from NWS

        NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
        AVAILABLE…SO OTHER THAN A BRIEF PASSING FLURRY/SNOW SHOWER IT WILL
        COME THROUGH DRY.

        1. I have to admit, I’d have loved a good squall. Especially since it’s a weekend and there isn’t really a “commute”. The only chance now is if something migrates all the way from the Great Lakes through this evening.

  65. NWS re: tonight

    WE ARE GOING WITH A LOW OF 6 BELOW ZERO IN BOSTON AND 12
    BELOW IN WORCESTER…BOTH OF WHICH WOULD BE THE COLDEST SINCE
    JANUARY OF 2004!

    1. I remember that one. Happened on a Tuesday following the Martin Luther King long weekend. The school day was cancelled due to the cold.

    1. That was probably from the ocean storm. There were radar echos all the way up
      to Boston, But not making it to the ground. 😀

    2. Fell apart just as it reached here. Did look as if it wanted to regenerate from north of Haverhill down into the Malden area and then poof again

      Good morning JPD

      1. Another soul has rejoined the world. Good morning.

        I am kind of bummed.

        No snow squalls, no ocean storm snow, no inverted trough snow, no nothing!

        Cancelled dinner for tonight due to the cold (not me mind you, my wife just doesn’t want to go out in the cold and reservations were for Luciano’s a fair distance away in Wrentham.)

        Pizza and an on demand movie tonight for us.

        And prospects for RAIN on Tuesday….blah blah blah

        Why don’t we just head right into Spring right now. Why bother?

  71. Oh we have action on the radar blowing up just N&W of Boston.
    Wonder what caused that?
    Still not all that heavy but something is there. 😀

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