Saturday Forecast

224 Comments

8:57AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 13-17)…
No significant changes from the previous post. To summarize: Arctic front coming through this morning but only a few flurries with it. In comes the super cold air the remainder of today lasting until early Monday. The wind accompanying it will create dangerously low wind chills. Only a slight risk of isolated snow showers from remnants of Great Lakes snow bands may make it into parts of the region through early Sunday. Watching next system which is still expected to track just west of southern New England, but run into enough cold air at the start for some snow late Monday and some icing possible early Tuesday before it’s just a rain event. A follow up disturbance may create a few rain/snow showers during Wednesday.
TODAY: Partly sunny. A few snow flurries mid morning eastern MA. A band of ocean-effect snow showers possible Cape Cod this afternoon with a slight risk of isolated snow showers elsewhere. Temperatures at their highest to start the day, 14-20 except 20-25 Cape Cod, will fall during the day. Wind W to NW increasing to 15-30 MPH with higher gusts, driving wind chills below zero at times.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Snow showers possible Cape Cod with some minor accumulation where they occur. Isolated snow showers possible elsewhere. Lows -14 to -7 interior, -6 to +2 immediate coast. Wind N to NW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chills as low as -25 to -30 at times.
SUNDAY: Sunny. Arctic sea smoke over coastal water. Bitter cold. Highs 5-12. Wind NW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing late in the day. Wind chill often below -10.
MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow late day or night changing to ice/rain overnight. Lows -5 to +8, coldest interior valleys, least cold Cape Cod. Daytime highs 20s. Night time temperatures rise into the 30s.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Ice/rain becoming all rain early. Rain ending evening. Early-day temperatures 30s to 40. Highs 44-51 by late in the day.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few rain/snow showers. Lows 35-42. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 18-22)…
Fair/breezy/cold February 18. Fair, cold start and milder finish February 19. Milder with a few rain/snow showers February 20. Fair and colder February 21. Milder with some unsettled weather possible by February 22.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 23-27)…Milder with minor rain/mix event possible in the February 23-24 period. Fair and slightly colder February 25-26. Next storm threat comes at the end of the period.

224 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  1. Don’t bother looking at the GFS beyond hour 240. It just doesn’t know how to resolve anything right now in that range.

          1. True. Well a case could be made the if the OP posts the first comment it could technically be considered an extension of the original post and therefore not an actual “first post.” I will have my crack legal team vet this out with your guys.

    2. Camden/Rockport area has been getting pummeled since late last night but it has been very localized and has moved very little.

  7. JPDave,

    My wife and I got married at Lake Pearl Luciano’s in Wrentham in 2002. It’s a beautiful place. Stay warm!

    1. Lake Pearl?
      This Luciano’s Is on Rt. 1 in Wrentham. Yes Lake Peal is in Wrentham as well.
      Does the restaurant go by that name as well? I just never heard it called that.

      Btw, we are not going. We cancelled.
      been there several times. It is one of our favorite restaurants. 😀

        1. Yes John, too cold for her. She is much more frail than I
          and would rather not venture out in that kind of weather.
          I support her 100%.

    1. Just commented on that above arod. That area of snow associated with the trough has not moved since last night!

  10. Thank you TK

    I went through yesterday’s blog quickly and apologize that I didn’t see your post, Loozie. Welcome and wishing you a wonderful Saturday

    JPDave….sorry your plans changed. Some of my favorite memories are a quiet dinner at home with a movie. Enjoy. What are you watching ?

    1. Thanks Vicki. Haven’t a clue what we will watch. Whatever the wife wants.
      There are a zillion movies I would enjoy, only a precious few that my wife
      would watch. 😀

      There are a few. I’ll get the list and she will choose. It’s Valentine’s Day after all. 😀

  11. It was a veritable heat wave this am at 18 Deb compared to yesterday at just under 2.

    Is rain all day Tuesday? We have a broker open house. Can I ask them to remove shoes 🙁

    1. That should be about it. Low risk a couple ocean snow showers migrate near there tonight and very low risk a couple snow showers from Lake Ontario survive all the way into eastern MA.

  14. Just yesterday the forecast looked decent for Monday – partly sunny and upper 20s. But now I see that there will be no sun, snow showers, and freezing rain. Darn. I wanted to cross country ski with a friend. Driving to the park in Rhode Island shouldn’t be a problem as the precipitation doesn’t start until later in the day. But, anything that falls from the sky and hits the road will freeze on contact. When should we expect the leading edge of the storm to hit?

    1. Timing still a little suspect but in that part of the region it COULD be as early as mid afternoon. I just see this thing moving a little faster than previously indicated.

      1. Thank you, TK. This helps me plan ahead. I think I’ll head down there mid morning and ski for a few hours, say, 11am to 2pm. If I’m on the road back to Boston by 4pm or so I’ll probably be okay. My main concern driving is not the snow showers, but the freezing rain on very cold surfaces.

  15. Thanks TK. Front has blasted through here in Plymouth, NH, as of about an hour ago. Temperature leveled out but hasn’t gone down yet, wind kicked up significantly though and the dew point took a nosedive as it went through. We should be in the -15 to -20F range tonight.

    1. Stay warm and enjoy. Beautiful area you are in. I remember waking up to negative temp numbers to get ready for a day of skiing. Back then, my dad would put a blanket on the car engine and close the hood. No idea if it worked but we always did get to the mountain.

  16. Thanks TK !

    Burlington, VT down to 2F

    Another thing about the early week storm, it doesn’t look quite as strong.

      1. It sure does. Hopefully some snow in the ski areas. I have a friend on Facebook who just posted a picture from Jackson, NH and while ski trails are snow covered, the woods adjacent to them have bare ground ! That’s crazy !!!!

        1. Memories galore. What mountain, Tom? I can only think of Black. Wildcat above that but so not recall If it is in Jackson.

          My wallpaper on my compute is a picture of the covered bridge leading into Jackson. Mostly, we skied Cranmore but There was a great small mountain just above Jackson called Tyrol that we skied when I was in my teens. It is no longer there but Keith and some others who frequented that area might remember.

  19. From Jan 18th through the 24th, Logan recorded 7 straight days of below normal temps.

    Currently, Logan is on a 5 day run and if we assume today thru Monday to be below normal, that will be an 8 day run. Other than that, it’s largely been above average since December 1st.

    Certainly, many more weeks to come of cold and potential for snow, but I wonder if the current 8 day stretch of below normal temps will be the longest stretch that this winter will offer ………

  22. Massena, NY neat the Canadian Border at 11AM:

    Massena, Massena International-Richards Field, NY
    (KMSS) 44.93583N 74.84556W
    2 Day History

    Overcast
    -15.0 °F
    Last Updated: Feb 13 2016, 10:53 am EST
    Sat, 13 Feb 2016 10:53:00 -0500
    Weather: Overcast
    Temperature: -15.0 °F (-26.1 °C)
    Dewpoint: -27.0 °F (-32.8 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 53 %
    Wind: from the West at 18.4 gusting to 23.0 MPH (16 gusting to 20 KT)
    Wind Chill: -41 F (-41 C)
    Visibility: 9.00 miles
    MSL Pressure: 1024.7 mb
    Altimeter: 30.22 in Hg

    It is BELOW ZERO ALL Over upstate NY.

  23. NWS Discussion has a preliminary general 1 – 4″ for us before the changeover. Do you agree with that at this time TK?

      1. Click on this to enlarge. Here are the EURO low Temperatures
        for 2/14. Notice -10 is for Boston on this model.
        Thus NWS take a blend and comes up with -6 for boston.
        Eric last night said -4 for Boston. Either way -10 to -15 out in
        the burbs.

        http://imgur.com/5IxvdqI

    1. We’re talking about some front end snow ahead of the rain.
      Not a whole bunch. An inch or 2 up to perhaps 4 or so. No big deal, I don’t think.

      2. This time around I’m hoping for very little to no snow since it’s going over to rain. I don’t particularly feel like breaking my back having to shovel cement!

          1. Well, Boston is not an interior valley location. 🙂

            Anywhere in the 495 belt and away from the coast, excluding higher elevations.

      1. The Euro is missing some overrunning for some reason. This model does such a great job at the overall pattern, yet can miss some of the minute details in a big way.

        The CMC/GFS are handling the next few days more decently.

  32. You are all smarter than I when it comes to meteorology, so I ask:

    Is this a night when you can predict the low temp by looking at the dewpoint temperature?

    For example, the DP at 1 pm at Danbury was -13. So, does that mean the low tonight in Danbury will be -13 or lower?

  33. for those in the Merrimack Valley, I believe few inches of snow is possible before a change over to a period of freezing rain . areas inside of 128 points south and east will be rain by day break.

  34. The models…

    12z ECMWF: Good handling of the overall upper air pattern. Bad handling of the surface details regarding the system late Monday/Tuesday.

    12z NAM: Generally good. 12km res is better than the 32km and I think best represents what will take place late Monday and Tuesday.

    12z GFS: Decent, but may be overdone with the follow up wave for Wednesday. Later in the run (beyond 240), forget this model again because it’s still having a boatload of difficulty figuring out what happens with a complex set up in the final days of February.

    12z CMC: Performing the best, in my opinion, with regards to the forecast through next Friday.

    1. GEFS Ensemble Mean continues to support the idea of some kind of storm threat around the final weekend of February with a clear signal of an East Coast trough. It’s not going to look that impressive that far out on the mean map but the idea is something will be going on there.

  35. SSK… I believe Boston will snow for a few hours Monday evening and may see some minor accumulation, that is, under 4 inches. It may be under 1 inch, but I just don’t know yet.

      1. You’re not a pain – don’t worry about it!
        If I don’t know an answer, I’ll let you know. I can only estimate right now that it could snow as early as 4PM but more likely early evening.

  37. I pretty good plume of cumulus coming right into my area from the WNW. It’s quite glaciated with plenty of snow virga, but the dew point between -5 and -15 is eating up any snow before it has a shot of reaching the ground.

  38. TK, out of curiousity when you are doing your research for a forecast what percentage of your information is gathered from graphical vs tabular or other resources?

    1. Now that would be hysterical if I didn’t know you meant instead of shorts. I am giving serious thought to a jacket or at least a turtleneck under my handy dandy sweatshirt

  44. This is a perfect example of how all weather fascinates…or at least I think it does. I’ve been having fun all day watching temps in different areas….further away at first and now closer as our temps (ours meaning MA CT RI southern NH) start to drop. Even the squall lines as they approached, built up and then poof then tried to redevelop It doesn’t have to be snow or thunder or the obvious visuals….there are so many different types of weather events

        1. Over here in Enfield it weas zero as the sun was setting. I just looked outside again and I see -5 on the thermometer. The coldest I’ve seen it here since we moved here in the 70s was a -16 one morning. At the rate the temp is dropping, who knows if we break it.

    1. In them now at that 99 down the street. Feel like a caged animal. I am fantasizing about going home and getting the shorts back on.

  57. 3 at the airport at 8PM. brrrr brrre and more brrrr.
    NWS saying -7 for a low at the Airport. How much more inland from there?
    I’m thinking -10 here in JP where it is about 0 or slightly below now. (My thermometer is on the fritz. I’m going to see IF I can fix it) 😀

    1. There I got it going. 1.9 here in JP currently. 😀
      New batteries in the receiver and some jiggling around with it did the trick.

  62. I often wonder if complaining about something over which you have no control is worse than the actual thing you are complaining about. Just curious.

    1. Daughter said she’s heard subtle sounds in older part of house today. I’m surprised I haven’t heard anything tonight. Nothing subtle about the pops.

  67. Toughen up! Real New Englanders can take it, whether they hate it or love it. Your Texas is showing! 😉

  74. I’m at -4.4 at 12:40 AM. Brrr
    So far, so good. Faucets are dripping.

    Looks like -10 is achievable here. I think the coldest I have seen while in this house
    was -7.

  76. I made instant snow crystals atop Zion Hill on the west side of Woburn about 1AM when I tossed boiling water into the air. Awesome. 🙂

  80. -12 in Chelmsford at 4:02am. Had to put some logs on the fire… been hearing (and feeling) the house bang a lot tonight. Ice on the inside of the circa 1964 windows, nothing on the 2009 Andersen replacements.

  81. -9 at Logan, -10 at Bradley, and -15 at Worcester at 4am. May still drop another degree or two? Looks like Mt Washington bottomed out at -38 and now has “warmed” into the mid -20’s.

  88. For today’s climate, a morning like this is probably in the neighborhood of a 1 in 100 year event for SNE. I’m sure they’ll be plenty of research done on the subject. Pretty much unprecedented by modern standards.

  89. -13 in framingham at 7:30. Not sure if it got lower prior As it has already warmed to -11. -28 DP. Wind chill -23. Many ski mornings in my youth started like this

    I am amazed we did not have roof popping …at least I didn’t hear it

  90. -9 or so in Woburn and will only get colder around these parts since I left my Valentine’s Day card at work. No chance the wife believes that story ha.

  91. -12. Tied for coldest “ever” (that is, in my lifetime of observing) at Woods Hill Woburn.

    Updating quickly…

  93. I tweeted out a video this morning. I had a pot of boiling hot water and threw it into -10 degree air. It was pretty cool to see. Always wanted to do that!

    1. Cool…literally. I’m thinking of doing that but with my luck, it’d blow back in my face. And my hair is still wet from a shower. I might turn into Elsa.

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