Sunday Forecast

170 Comments

8:17AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 14-18)…
Quick update. Yup. It’s cold out there as of this posting. I’ll give a list of official temps, or a link to it, later, or let one of you do that in the comments. In the mean time, here’s a quick forecast update and will go into more detail later.
TODAY: Sunny. Arctic sea smoke over coastal water. Bitter cold. Highs 5-12. Wind NW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing late in the day. Wind chill often below -10.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows -5 to +2. Wind light NW to N.
MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow late day or night changing to ice/rain overnight. Lows -5 to +8, coldest interior valleys, least cold Cape Cod. Daytime highs 20s. Night time temperatures rise into the 30s.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Ice/rain becoming all rain early. Rain ending evening. Early-day temperatures 30s to 40. Afternoon highs 48-55.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few rain/snow showers. Lows 35-42. Highs in the 40s.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 15-22. Highs 28-35.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 19-23)…
Fair, cold start and milder finish February 19. A few rain/snow showers with milder air February 20.
Fair and colder February 21. Milder with some unsettled weather (rain/snow) possible by February 22-23.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 24-28)…Fair and slightly colder February 24-26. Next storm threat comes late in the period.

170 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

    2. -15 at my house in Enfield for the low temp. One degree less than my all time low here of -16 some years back.

      I remember one Christmas Day years ago when the daytime high never got above -14 here and my folks in Middletown were to come up and spend Christmas with us and our kids but canceled. For the life of me I cannot remember what year that was but considering that my kids are in their 30s now, I would say around ’85 or so.

  6. The inside of the entrance door of the urgent care was all ice. Never seen anything like it. Looked like the inside of a freezer door.

  7. It was negative 16 degrees this morning. Wind chills -31 wind at 14mph.
    Brr but hey, its not the worse, I honestly will take this over single digits with winds of 30+

    1. I also went into Boston, the pollution coming out of the stacks, were freezing in the air, literally stopping once it got out of the stacks, It also shows you how much pollution is actually going into the atmosphere and the fact that Boston is one of the better ones in regulations……

      1. Mac was not vocal about a lot of things. Smoke stacks were one of the things that he was quite vocal about. Hated to see it.

      2. True but that pollution is what keeps your house warm and let’s you drive around. In general I mean. Everything has a price, good or bad. Read how some cities that banned plastic bags are seeing spikes in bacterial infections as people reuse those cloth bags that when tested are huge germ factories.

        1. The stacks are fine as long as what is coming out is
          as clean as possible and properly scrubbed, which many are not.

          1. You are correct that is where the problem lies, JPD. The stack liners are polluted. I may be saying this wrong. I know mac did a lot of testing on the pollutants in the steam. I know he knew first hand that it was very often not clean

  10. Just a thought if the Great Lakes were frozen over as opposed to last year almost 100% I think this morning might have been a few degrees cooler.

  11. Keeping the shades closed now until sun comes in on other side of house and we can get some “solar heating”. Opened the shade awhile ago and not only did blast of cold air come in (windows closed) but the sun on the snow almost blinding.

    At one point in the past, we all said which we liked better – extreme cold or extreme heat. I think I said extreme cold ’cause it’s easier to warm up then cool off. Hmm – changed my mind. I don’t like either! But it is New England and it is winter. It wouldn’t be New England w/o a few days of this! 🙂

  12. Good morning and happy Valentine’s Day to all.

    I hope all got through the night without any burst pipes.

    We did the drip thing and all appears to be well.

    My Oregon Instruments thermometer could not quite make -10, bottoming out
    at -9.9. The coldest I have ever witnessed in JP in my 45 year living here.
    I have seen colder while growing up in Millis where I once saw -17.

    I will be forever pissed if Logan came in lower than that. Then I need a new thermometer, I think.

  13. @TK…thanks for the offer, truly. I did find it buried in my work bag but was busted signing it but it’s still a semi-victory ha.

    1. WOW!!!!! Incredible. I have NEVER seen a photo like that. Send it in
      the Channel 4.

      AWESOME!!

      Hey ace, do you have a video for us this morning????

      Saw one from Mt. Washington Obs on the news last night. Amazing shot
      of that water turning to ice crystals instantly.

      1. Wife thought I was crazy and didn’t want to film it but I did try it this morning. I don’t think the water was hot enough, it fell harmlessly into the snow 🙁

        1. Has to be boiling, well take it from boiling as quickly as possible to the demonstration location. Hot tap water doesn’t cut it.

    3. 4KM NAM for front end snows Tomorrow night and that’s not saying much

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016021412/nam4km_ref_frzn_neus_13.png

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016021412/nam4km_asnow_neus_21.png

      12KM NAM

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016021412/namconus_asnow_neus_29.png

      32KM NAM

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016021412&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=042

      GFS and EURO basically have zilch or a coating.

      CMC, hardly any

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016021400/gem_asnow_neus_11.png

      so far NOTHING to get excited about. Would not surprise me if we got a brief coating and change over to sleet then quickly to RAIN.

  16. I haven’t found a list yet, but saw these from Matt Noyes.
    New record lows at these cities:

    Worcester: -16
    Bradley Field: -12
    Logan: -9 (old record -3)

    Why are Boston’s coldest temperatures in February and not the coldest month, January.

    I think I know the reason, TK can correct me if I am wrong.

    In January typically Hudson Bay is not totally frozen yet and whether it is to do with that or another reason, often our cold comes from N. Central and NW Canada
    and has a chance to moderate some before getting here. In February, Hudson Bay
    is frozen and arctic air masses can build more in E. Central and Eastern Canada
    and it’s a straight shot to us, thus it can be colder.

    My shot at it anyway. 😀

    1. I can’t recall Logan “smashing” a record low temp. Usually it ends up only by a degree or two. WOW!!!

      1. Of course the Euro is still rain. I thought it was noteworthy that
        there was a significant shift to the East.

  18. Thank you, TK.

    With the cold in place it will be difficult to dislodge quickly. Caution therefore to drivers coming back from President’s Day getaways on Monday evening. The front end snow doesn’t worry me as much as the freezing rain. I believe that we may see freezing rain for a longer period of time than forecast, right into Tuesday morning. Eventually the mild air will win out and temps will soar.

  20. I think the models are underestimating the cold air that will be briefly in place prior to the arrival of the storm. Easily 1-3 inches widespread before the changeover. I think the NAM has the right idea.

  21. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see a more easterly track evolve locking in the cold air in a bit longer prior to the changeover. We have all seen that happen when artic air is in place prior to storm arrival.

  22. I still can’t find an official list. I got these from hourly observations from a NWS site.
    Note: it is possible the actual low could be a tad lower if it occurred in between observation times. So here goes:

    Boston: -9
    Worcester: -16
    Bradley: -12
    Chatham: -4
    Hyannis: -7
    Nantucket: -2
    Plymouth: -10
    Taunton: -9
    N. Adams: -15
    Blue Hill: -14
    New bedford: -9
    Fitsburg: -12
    Norwood: -10
    Pittsfield: -18

  29. I, along with arid believe the upfront snow is being underestimated by the models. This was some serious cold and is extensive racing all the way down into the Carolinas and georgia. Given the temperature differences it’s hard to believe a Strom would want to ride inland against the cold instead of moving over the warmer open waters, but such looks to be the case. Keep in mind there is a snow pack of roughly 4-8 inches across all is SNE…would be more of a concern for icing keeping the cold at the surface longer

  30. I will also be watching Mt Washington’s temperature tomorrow to see how quickly it begins to warm aloft

  35. Should be snowing in boston say 5:00 pm tomorrow night with up to 3 inches possible before it changes over to freezing rain and than plain rain as it warms up I think is how it will go.

    1. I think 7PM in Boston and ONLY up to inch IF that, as it could be less than that.
      Problem is a surge of warmer air at the 850 MB level and 925MB level.
      Just my 2 cents fwiw. 😀

      1. I respectfully disagree . I think it’s a fast arrival time for the city. The projected high tomorrow is 29 and the low is 25. Say it comes in at 5 or 6 that’s 6 or seven hours worth of snow if the temperature holds than we go over to sleet before finally rain early Tuesday morning ( early Tuesday morning ) I don’t think this temperature is going to go away just like that I think it’s a slow decline . I feel like tomorrow night could be a level 1 event with hazardous travel conditions say from 7-2am Tuesday . I’m just taking a guess on this for what it’s worth 1-4 for the city

        1. We can disagree, that’s ok. And I disagree at the moment.
          I may change my mind, but based on what I see, that’s my story and I am sticking to it. 😀

  36. Tomorrow, looks like snow starts around 7PM give or take and changes over
    around Midnight give or take, about a 4-5 hour window for snow. After that sleet and very quickly to freezing rain or RAIN depending upon surface temperatures.

  37. 1.Today’s 1st AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.
    The coldest temperature ever recorded in Boston is
    A. -16
    B. -18
    C. -20
    D. -22

    2. Today’s 2nd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.
    Quebec dairy farmer, Arthur Sicard, was credited with coming up with what invention in 1925?

    A. A salt spreader
    B. Tire chains
    C. A methane powered barn heater
    D. The snow blower

    Answers later today.

    1. D
      C

      Thank you for the Accu-quiz.
      It has been said there is nothing like a methane-powered barn heater 🙂

  40. TK, somehow February cold is different from January, at least in my perception. Once the sun is out in February it doesn’t feel as cold as it does when the temperature is the same in January. Running at 10:30am this morning did not feel that cold. Running at 10:30am in January 2015 during a cold spell felt colder. Am I imagining things? Or, is there science to back this up? I don’t think wind chill captures the difference in perception. I believe the sun angle makes a difference.

    1. Having skied and played hockey outdoors for years in the winter, from 2d week or so of Jan thru about the 3d week of Feb are all the same to me; They tend to be bitter cold. That is just my experience speaking out loud.

  42. All-time low temperature record broken at the NWS-Taunton office this morning at -11. The office has been recording data since it opened in 1996. Ironically, it broke the record of -9 set a year ago today, February 14, 2015.

    The “other” Taunton temperature you see on TV and on the NWS obs is the ASOS at the East Taunton airport. It was -9 there this morning.

    The all-time Taunton record was -35 set at the Taunton Water Works in January, 1904. That number is almost unfathomable!

    The fourth of four major snowstorms was just about to start at this time last year.

    1. I remember I was on my way to work yet again on a Saturday to remove snow leaving my wife and son alone on Valentine’s Day while they ate lobster while daddy was busting his ass yet again removing snow. Six weeks at work dealing with snow not just the storms . Locating roof drains and digging the out , fire connections into the buildings, fire hydrants etc. it was rough into early March believe me .

  43. Hey all! About last winter…did we get any Match snow last year? When did the finally shut off? Thanks.

    1. The Cape and South Coast got a foot on March 5. They may have been other smaller events.

      When did Boston finally break the record? I seem to remember it was late in the season?

    1. HA yeah just noticed the typo. For some reason I remember the snow blitz just ended and I thought it was in February. For this I mean north of Boston.

  45. Quizzes 3 & 4.

    3. Today’s 3rd AccuWeather Trvia Quiz.

    A rule restricting the breed of dog allowed to race during the harsh conditions of the Iditarod was adopted after an entrant used what breed?

    A. Labrador Retriever
    B. Poodle
    C. Boxer
    D. Chihuahua

    4. Today’s 4th AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    A wind chill warning is issued for us when the wind chill index is forecast to -25 degrees or colder for how long?

    A. 3 hours or more
    B. 4 hours or more
    C. 6 hours or more
    D. 24 hours

    Answers later today.

    2. #3 – I tried to stop myself but alas, I am doing with D
      #4 – does for us mean literally? I will guess A

  46. I took an excursion to the waters around Nahant, Lynn, and Swampscott. Unfortunately I was not able to get to the coast as early as I had hoped (near dawn and shortly after) because I take mom out on Sunday mornings to church, cemetery, grocery shopping, and for her coffee and sandwich at McD’s that she used to go with my father to get. She wanted to brave the cold and enjoyed herself, as tough as this day is being the first Valentine’s Day without my father.

    Once I got over to the coast there was still some sea smoke to be seen and I did get a couple neat shots, but not as good as a friend of mine who I “sent to Boston Harbor” (he’d have gone anyway) to take the photos early. I’ll post a couple of mine and a bunch of his in a while. He’s given me permission to share them. 🙂

      1. Thanks! And by the way I DID have an extra card floating about, but it’s an extra Christmas card. 😉

  48. Models are moving right towards TK’s idea of a trough in the East with potential associated storminess for the end of the month. Could be interesting. First things first though, a very respectable warm up for most of the next 7-10 days. All along, as expected, this winter has been much more “warm with cold interludes” than “cold with warm interludes”. No sustained cold like the last couple winters.

    3. Nah. Usually I’m just playing with you. You like to push buttons. I like using remote controls. 😉

      1. I already gave you the hints on how to not come across that way to the readers. Now you just gotta do it. 😛

  50. Current temps (2PM) generally range from +5 to +12 (predicted range was the same). A decent recovery considering what it was like just 8 hours ago, but still a very cold day. Wind chills coming up big time not only from the temp rise but also the slackening of wind. We are beyond the worst of it. Tonight’s near zero temps will fall balmy in comparison as there will be little or no wind. I may have to adjust my low temps, however, as some sheltered locations with snowcover may fall below what I have posted above.

  51. Tk, what is your current thinking on front end snow/ice tomorrow evening?

    Do you concur start time in the Boston area is about 7PM give or take?

    Many thanks

    1. 5PM-7PM and under 3 inches. It may be under 1 inch, as in a trace/coating. But start time will be key.

  52. Your valentines? I’ll leave that one alone… 😀

    Though I did just get a mental image of you sitting by yourself at a table with a stack of cards. 😉

  53. I did drive to Winthrop today to see the artic sea smoke. Very worthwhile!

    I believe the temp was -1 at the time.

  54. I remember it. I just don’t think they make it right now. We’ll see if we get enough sunshine and lingering uphill (southwest) flow aloft.

  55. 18z 12km NAM has a solid 1-4 inch front end snowfall tomorrow evening, including the South Coast and Cape Cod.

    1. In the event it does is it anything you would have to move or will the rain and temps take care of it?

      1. If it’s over 1 inch, I’d move it. You have 2 wildcards…
        1) Entire system shifts east and 50s never make it here.
        2) The rain is a failure and it’s not enough to wash snow away.
        Saving grace, we will still be fairly mild Wednesday so we won’t see an instant freeze up just in case any snow is left behind. It may end up being a non-issue if we don’t quite make it beyond 1 inch.

        1. Ok thanks. Hoping no snow for that reason. Sucks to move wet snow let alone wet snow while it’s raining.

    2. That is up considerably from the 12Z run. Catching onto cold holding on longer because of an earlier start?

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016021418/namconus_asnow_neus_14.png

      4KM NAM, less

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016021418/nam4km_asnow_neus_13.png

      32km NAM, barely any for Boston (the other maps above assume 10:1).
      this one does not.

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016021412&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=042

  56. Thanks TK. Any concern for an extended period of icing in North Central Mass or do you expect the warm air to win out here as well?

    1. It may ice there for several hours, but it should be with precipitation that’s not overly heavy, which will keep accretion down.

  57. WRF indicates a coating to 1 inch over Cape Cod and Plymouth County, 1-2 inches Boston and Metro West as well as the immediate northern suburbs, 2-4 inches northeastern MA through the 495 belt into southern NH. This I can buy.

    The icing is a wild card. That cold air may be trapped for a while over interior valleys. The other concern I have is that the precipitation cuts off for a while right when it would change to rain. This may leave the snow/ice crusting in place longer. Eventually the warm air wins in all areas and a good slug of rain should come through between late afternoon and mid evening on Tuesday.

  58. I’m wondering if some of these models that use a 10:1 ratio for snow maps, aren’t includig
    sleet qpf into their snow maps. Just wondering. Instant Weather maps which
    uses an algorithm for snow maps, appears not to be doing that. Just a thought.

    1. I don’t think we get sleet for very long as the coldest air is rather shallow and should be right near the ground.

  60. Surprised no one has a snow map out yet…I know it’s not set in stone but there are some stations that usually job on any chance.

              1. No, but mine is a little better. I am not feeling it.
                I think the warm air rushes up the coast and puts an end to any snow rather quickly (I mean aloft at first and then a bit later at the surface)

                We shall see. I’m just not feeling it and I HOPE I am WRONG!!!! 😀

              2. I don’t like the configuration of the system and it is elongated South to North with a super amount of warm air surging out ahead of it.

                It will snow more in Virginia than here. 😀

  67. Judging from pictures I’m seeing in pictures, artic sea ice is what we used to see on the horizon when we were in Humarock for the winter months. We just had no idea what it was. So does that mean it isn’t that unusual?

  68. Quiz Answers.

    1.Today’s 1st AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.
    The coldest temperature ever recorded in Boston is
    A. -16
    B. -18
    C. -20
    D. -22

    The answer is B.

    2. Today’s 2nd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.
    Quebec dairy farmer, Arthur Sicard, was credited with coming up with what invention in 1925?

    A. A salt spreader
    B. Tire chains
    C. A methane powered barn heater
    D. The snowblower

    The answer is D.

    3. Today’s 3rd AccuWeather Trvia Quiz.

    A rule restricting the breed of dog allowed to race during the harsh conditions of the Iditarod was adopted after an entrant used what breed?

    A. Labrador Retriever
    B. Poodle
    C. Boxer
    D. Chihuahua

    The answer is B.

    4. Today’s 4th AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    A wind chill warning is issued for us when the wind chill index is forecast to -25 degrees or colder for how long?

    A. 3 hours or more
    B. 4 hours or more
    C. 6 hours or more
    D. 24 hours

    The answer is A.

    1. As Sheldon Cooper would say, “Nailed It”. 😀 😀

      Thank you Longshot. I always enjoy these quizes and appreciate you finding
      them and posting them. 😀

      OH and for the one person that took a guess at my posted picture of a Ski Area the answer is: Lee Canyon, located 40 miles West of Down Town Las Vegas, NV. Base altitude of 8,510 feet.

      1. I missed the pic. Darn I love to guess those. Sorry

        I’ll give it a try……someplace in Nevada 🙂 🙂 🙂

    2. Thanks Lomgshot. I knew two got one I guessed because as we all know 18 is THE best number and sort of suspected a chiwauwau (sp?) just might be wrong. And why please tell me can’t a poodle qualify. I protest.

      Thanks Lomgshot 🙂

    2. I’ve seen this video before, but so love watching it again – so thank you for sharing Longshot!
      The sound really depicts the power of what is taking place.
      Do you see a whale?

  72. Hmmmmm that is curious, two of my friends spend Friday and Saturday at a hotel on the harbor, ate at several north end restaurants for dinner, breakfast, lunch and dessert and said all places were booked

    What ticks people off is that you seem to feel you are the spokesman for all people. It is all right to have enough confidence in your opinion and let it Stand on its own.

    We tried reservations at a fondue restaursnt here that typically has walk in and there were no reservations. Same for breakfast, lunch and dinner at one of my favorite places in Sudbury.

    Maybe just the more upscale places were booked.

    1. So you know the facts and I ignore them. And you are not putting anyone down. My friends walked seven miles over the course of the weekend. I don’t think they scurried.

      Charlie if you keep syh, it will dislodge.

    2. So basically it was a repeat of the same thing…again.

      We KNOW.

      But here’s a news flash for you.

      We live where we live. You can’t CHANGE the WEATHER.

      But these people can CHANGE their LOCATION.

      Buhbye!

    3. Yes. You are putting people down. You’re doing it on purpose. And you know it.

      You insulted Vicki’s intelligence again after being warned not to.
      And DON’T tell me you didn’t. It’s not your decision. I decide this here.

      The person who continually has to remind others they are not trying to offend, are trying to offend. Period. We’re not stupid.

      I think it’s time for a little break. I don’t want this here.

  76. Oh, and do these people realize it’s February, not June?

    Ask me if I have any sympathy for their dislike of the cold and the fact it hurts business. Oh wait, don’t ask, I’ll answer that.

    NO sympathy. You want to know why? Because I’m smart enough to realize what the actual climate is and what the weather can do here, and apparently they are mistaken enough to think that somehow the entire world should have the climate of San Diego.

    And it’s not really necessary to remind us that we’re on a weather blog. We know.

  77. Last night: Tight gradient. Very windy.
    Tonight: High pressure overhead. Virtually no gradient. Calm.

  78. Most of them didn’t say they hate it. Most of them just remarked how cold it was. You made up that part about everyone saying it.

  82. 4.1 here. Not sure it will go below 0. Certainly not at Logan. It “may” here.
    We shall see.

    Barry said a coating to 1 inch for Boston. I say closer to the coating. We’ll know soon enough.

  83. Coyotes in my yard keeping me up…sounds like they were attacking a domestic dog. So loud I thought someone broke in.

  84. Charlie…
    Unfortunately I have to put this out in the open for which I apologize to the faithful readers and posters that stay within the rules. I’m placing your account on probation until further notice. In other words, all comments submitted will go to moderation. However, the suspended posts by you number over 200, and the folder only holds 200 messages, so that means no new users are able to post. The only solution to this is to delete most of if not all of the posts made under your account. In fairness, I will attempt to go through and keep the ones that I feel do not cross the line I asked you not to cross. This will result in me needing to do an extra hour of admin work on the blog, which I cannot do now, but I have to leave this as is because the posts that are distracting from the reason I set this blog up MUST remain off of it. Do not try to post under a new email or username. It will not work. I’ll let you know when the probation period is over and if you violate the terms of the blog again after that, you’ll be suspended for a much longer time, and risk permanent removal.

    To any new users that may try to post, I ask for your patience and I will free up space as soon as possible.

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