Tuesday Forecast

260 Comments

3:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 16-20)…
The cold air has been tough to dislodge in the areas it was expected to hang on longest, and that is the interior valley locations of southern NH and MA, but also closer in to the city as well. We’ve reached the point in the early morning hours where it’s warm enough aloft for all rain, but freezing rain has still been falling in many areas. The precipitation has become more spotty overnight and will be mostly done by dawn, limiting additional icing, but still in some areas it has been significant. The freezing line will continue to progress to the northwest with time during the morning and eventually the warm air will win out in all locations. During this time, only spotty rain showers are expected, but as low pressure tracks north northeastward, passing just west of southern New England and moving into Canada later today and this evening, it will drag a cold front eastward and send a ribbon of heavier rain and possible thunderstorms across the region. Behind this system, drier weather will move in overnight and into Wednesday, and it will not be that chilly, so snow/ice that fell should be able to be moved and will melt off many surfaces. A disturbance and secondary front will bring a few snow showers and some colder air in by Thursday. High pressure builds over the region late Thursday into Friday with fair weather, but the next system, a broad low pressure area moving eastward across southeastern Canada, will return cloudiness to the region later Friday with a risk of some light snow/mix later Friday night and a few rain/snow showers Saturday.
TODAY: A few breaks of sun through fog in eastern MA this morning otherwise mainly cloudy with spotty rain showers, some of which will still fall as freezing rain interior valleys of north central MA and southern NH. Band of heavier rain and a risk of thunderstorms arriving from west to east by later in the afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind light variable interior valleys north and west for a while otherwise S increasing to 15-30 MPH with gusts above 40 MPH, especially in the afternoon, with some gusts above 50 MPH possible.
TONIGHT: Rain and possible thunderstorms ending west to east early with some clearing following. Lows 35-42. Wind SW 15-35 MPH with higher gusts shifting to W.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs in the 40s. Wind W 15-25 MPH and gusty.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-32 except 30s Cape Cod. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny with isolated snow showers. Highs in the 30s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny, then clouds increase late. Chance of light snow/mix at night. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few rain/snow showers. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 21-25)…
Fair and colder February 21. Unsettled period of weather expected February 22-24 with a couple waves of low pressure bringing the risk of rain/mix/snow. Fair and colder February 25.
DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 26-MARCH 1)…
Fair early and late period with a storm threat possible somewhere in the middle of the period. Temperatures near to below normal.

260 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  5. Thank you tk πŸ™‚
    42.3 degrees in N.Attleboro, 1/2 inch of snow/sleet freezing rain, went above freezing around 1-2am.

  6. Good morning.

    I had to go out last night during the worst of the snow. Roads were a mess.
    I went into the grocery store and It was thumping snow, but something was mixed in.
    I thought that it was either graupel OR more likely it was beginning to mix with sleet.
    I came out of the store at 9:30 PM and it was all sleet. Sleet lasted all of 10 minutes and then it was straight rain, freezing of course. Started sleeting at 24 by 11PM it had passed 32, only to drop under later. I woke up around 2 Am and it was 31 and change.

    At 6:30 AM it was 40 and now it is 42.3 and the temperature is rising.

    now let’s see if we can get a thunderstorm and pass 60. What a wild couple of days. πŸ˜€

  7. Oh, and before I forget, thank you TK for the update.

    Looking over the charts I see that the 25th remains interesting. The Euro has made
    a correction and now has this system as a coastal and NOT a cutter. It has it considerably more off shore than the gfs, but there is still plenty of time for fine tuning.

    Any how, here is the GFS

    Surface

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016021606/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_35.png

    Snow Map (10:1)

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016021606/gfs_asnow_neus_39.png

    Snow Map, algorithm

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016021606&time=48&var=ASNOWI&hour=222

    CMC also has it as well. A TRIPLE HEADER!!!

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016021600/gem_asnow_neus_40.png

    And finally the FIM, A QUADRUPAL HEADER

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2016021600/t3/totsn_sfc_f240.png

    With 4 Major models, likely the 4 BEST medium range models having this system,
    what can go wrong? PLENTY!!! It’s just a watcher still.

    Oh what the hay, is are the Euro totals (not as impressive as it has it off shore more)

    http://imgur.com/coAHfUX

  8. John, did you get your 3 inches over there in the Longwood area?

    I measured 3/4 inch here just as it was starting to sleet, pretty much in line
    with my thinking on this system. The surge of warm air above was just too strong
    and too fast to keep it snow. It changed over at 9:30 PM, so the snow just didn’t
    have enough time to accumulate. Farther North and West, I’m sure some of the 2-3 inch
    totals may have been realized. πŸ˜€

  12. Some parts of CT are well over freezing but here in the valley we’re stuck at 20, although 20 is still an improvement over the 12 we had most of the day yesterday. The plows came through around 5am sanding.

  13. Lot of accidents on the roads here in CT. It is an interesting temperature map to look at in CT where a lot of places in the 40s but Hartford area north that cold air is being stubborn and those places below freezing.

  16. Thanks, TK!!

    I know it’s still a ways away but what are your thoughts on the 24th in terms of the mixed bag we may be getting in terms of weather?

    1. A couple pieces of guidance have been consistent (so far) with us being near the northern ridge of a precipitation area (probably snow). Will monitor…

  17. I haven’t been out yet but plows have been here in Sudbury. I’m guessing there are still some icy spots around here. It’s 32 degrees and there is some fog when I look to the west; but to the east the sky looks a bit bright.

  18. Guessing we got 3 to 3.5 inches of snow before it changed to sleet and freezing rain…measured a little more than 2.5 inches of snow and crust this morning…temp is still only 31.2, up from 29.6 at 6 am this morning

  19. Such a strange morning. It feels downright balmy compared to the weekend! Tough to tell how much snow we got in Brookline but it had to be approaching 2″ before it compacted. Roads are mostly wet with some slush. Sidewalks are rather treacherous. Looking forward to some possible thunder later!

    2. You got love New England weather from snow and ice to downpours of rain gusty winds and possible rumbles of thunder later today.

    1. 1.3 inches for Logan.
      If the GFS and CMC are right for middle of next which they probably will not end up being right I believe Boston will be close to average seasonal snowfall.

      1. I am hoping Boston makes the seasonal average. That would have to be above TK’s prediction, however. That’s OK, he won’t mind.

        Btw, I took part in a facebook chat with Barry Burbank, Daniel Niles and Terry Eliason yesterday. Barry absolutely, positively stated that he expected Boston to come in at 44 inches for the year and thus expected 20 more inches this seaons, well now 18.7 πŸ˜€

        Will it happen? Will the big one TK has been predicting come?
        Will it be 2/25? OR will it be 2/29 ish or will it be BOTH?

        We shall see. I just want Boston to make the seasonal average
        and then we can have SPRING.

  23. TK based on what we got is it worth moving any of this snow off ground or roof? Part of me wants to move it but based on temps the next two days will it be wasted effort? Thanks.

  26. If Boston does get close to the average seasonal snowfall in a strong El Nino that would be something. I am not sure if that has ever happened with a strong El Nino.
    Meanwhile at Bradley were up to 16.5 inches for the season. This is where are records are kept for inland CT.

  28. Great forecast TK.

    Did anyone else notice the consistency of the snow before the changeover?
    It seems not fluffy and not really powdery, but rather kind of icy like.
    Hope I am not the only loony that saw that. I wonder if there was some melting
    aloft, not enough for sleet, but enough to change the snow flakes some????

    Just wondering. Inquiring minds.

    TK thoughts? Thanks

    2. I saw alot of tulip shapes with spikes. Not sure why. Guessing uneven warming in the growth region.

  29. Thanks TK. 29F here in Plymouth, NH, although feels much warmer after the past few days. Hard to tell because there was definitely compaction, but I’d estimate we had about 4″ of snow before the changeover, with glaze ice on top of that.

    Best news of all, classes cancelled πŸ™‚

  31. 47F in Coventry CT this AM. Feels balmy. Pretty amazing Mike is still sitting in the 20s in Enfield a few miles away. I am at 750′ elev. Huge difference between the hills and valleys.

  32. Sounds like a wild night in MA. We had a couple hours of thunderstorms this morning in South Florida. Off to Lion Country Safari!

  33. Total snowfall to date @ Logan = 25.3″

    It will be very interesting if we actually overachieve during an El NiΓ±o year. We will see.

      1. Yes

        TODAY: A few breaks of sun through fog in eastern MA this morning

        What I was referring to was looking out the window this
        morning before reading your updated forecast. I don’t
        recall seeing sun in anyone’s forecast from yesterday or last evening that is all.

        Your forecast was awesome.

        Sorry if my thoughts were misleading.

  36. I mentioned on the blog yesterday that there is a large tree limb on our neighbors tree. It is badly split and if it comes down will land on our house. They have someone coming to look Friday. But I’m worried about the winds tonight. Are the winds confined to the coast or will they be here also?

    Thank you very much to all.

    1. NWS wind map

      https://scontent-lga3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xap1/v/t1.0-9/12745940_949625065131865_137293308619503942_n.png?oh=f7d35b2fd2124eb0b90f7c14f688d0f0&oe=5729EEC6

      NAM wind gusts

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016021612&time=INSTANT&var=GUSTM&hour=011

      I wasn’t too worried that the snow would bring it down, but you will have your
      fair share of strong winds later today, generally between 4PM and 8PM.
      Best of luck with that situation.

      1. Thank you, JP. Neighbor is seeing if tree people can get here today instead of Friday. I sent the map to them that you provided. Even if they cut part of it down today, it would keep it off the house. It is also on the side of the house where I spend all my time.

  39. Pretty impressive temperature differences across the region. Driving into work the temperature went from 32 to 42 in the course of a mile around Peabody and then jumped to 49 in the Revere/Chelsea area

  40. Driving down 495 from Andover, temp around 35. Hit Bolton and all of a sudden every window fogged up, had to open windows. Over next couple miles temperature climbed to 50. In Westboro now.

  41. sharp line in temperatures, Merrimack valley has a northwest to north wind when areas in east of i95 (south of pike ) has a south wind.

  42. Airports are absolutely nuts today, trying to catch up from the past couple days. Took me 35 minutes to get through security — and that’s with tsa precheck!

    Hoping the winds cooperate for a safe touchdown this afternoon in Boston.

  52. Way to early to write that storm threat off. We have seen these systems shift back a few times this winter to give us some accumulating snow.

    1. Oh to be sure. Still it is disappointing to see if shift off shore from 6 hours ago.

      We shall see what the CMC and EURO do with it.

      1. we have had the gfs bring a system in giving us a good amount of snow, just to send back out to sea for a while, and then one of the other models shows what the gfs showed before, and the gfs then gets it back again. We shall see,

  54. Remarkable roller coaster ride in terms of temperatures. It’s like Denver, Colorado. I’ve seen wild oscillations before, but this one’s in my top 5 – if not higher – with the largest variation. From record-shattering lows only 52 hours ago to possible record highs in some NE towns. Now that’s mother nature or God in the throes of a major mood swing.

  55. Thank you TK. If you are concerned about the wind later then I am petrified! We have so many trees surrounding our house and after losing some big limbs with that Friday storm I fear there will be more to come. Vicki, I will let you know when we lose power so you can head down this way. πŸ™‚

  57. FYI – I just received an IRS phone call claiming the IRS will be taking me to court. If you receive such a call, do not respond! It’s a scam. They even used a DC number to make it seem more legit.

    1. So I should cancel my court date? πŸ™‚ Yes have heard of this…for all…never ever talk to the IRS without an attorney even if it sounds minor. Usually, just tell them you will only speak to them with the promise of immunity. You won’t hear back.

    2. This stuff is all over the TV news. They called me and told me that the IRS was on it’s way to arrest me, but if I agreed to give them money they would call them off.

      Me, “How long before they get here?”
      They, “Within the hour.”
      Me, “That gives me enough time to go out and get them some beer and chips.”
      They, “You think this is a joke?”
      Me, “Yes.”
      They “You won’t when you get arrested.”
      Me, “I’ll sit here and wait for them.”
      They, …. click.

      2. You are all making me laugh. WW – please let us know how your appointment goes. Longshot….very well played!

        The sad part is that they will hit seniors who fall for this stuff. Mail campaigns do the same and there is no way to stop them. It is tragic.

    3. Shotime – I have been receiving the same calls from a Texas number. I looked it up and it is definitely a scam. The IRS would never contact you by leaving you a message on your phone.

  59. 12z CMC looks different from the 00z but still delivers snow on Monday night/Tuesday and again on Friday via two separate systems. Either way this looks like we’ll have to wait until we are closer to get any sort of consensus.

  60. Meteorologist Gil Simmons was saying the Monday system looks weak the one to watch is Wednesday night into Thursday and went on to say the following week looks active.

  61. Just came in from a little walk. Nice but rather strange out w/the temp. swing. Wind is picking up here in Sudbury. Husband says a lot of the snow will go away today. I said it won’t be that warm long enough for that – except the heavy rain could melt a lot of it away into big puddles!

    We also have a lot of trees around our house – kind of nervous when winds really pick up later.

  62. TK most excellent call on not shoveling. Literally all snow that fell yesterday is gone and more from the snowpack…roof is 90% empty. So when more snow comes, I should be starting over at which is good.

    Oh shorts are back and the AC heat is running. Life is good.

  63. Sue, those scam calls are not only notorious, our government is VERY lax in going after these folks. The scammers are insidious, awful people with no scruples. Having lived overseas I can attest to this being a much worse issue here in the U.S. than most other western industrialized nations. Telemarketing itself is pretty much banned in most other countries. Even telephone political polling and/or solicitations from advocacy organizations is highly restricted. Furthermore, regular mail advertisements may not be sent to your home address if you put in a request to not have junk/advertisement mail sent to your home. Governments take these things very seriously, as in many instances it is a privacy violation (an intrusion), and in some it is a serious crime (IRS scammers and others – including those calls saying “call now for your free cruise to the Bahamas,” or “we’re from Microsoft and we noticed your computer has a virus”).

    Our useless Do Not Call registry does not work properly, which means that telemarketers and scammers call repeatedly even when you’re on the state and federal Do Not Call registry list. I know. I’m on these lists and they don’t work as intended.

    1. Whoa…a government program that doesn’t work??? Have you gone nuts??? πŸ™‚ Of course I am being sarcastic. I agree…it does not work. I still get tons of calls and there is almost no recourse.

      1. Government programs can work if they’re managed properly. It’s not as if telemarketers and scammers don’t want to intrude on people’s privacy in other countries. They do. But, governments have put in place much more effective Do Not Call registries, as well as severe fines and/or jail time for those in violation.

        In many ways, the U.S. is a more libertarian place than other countries. And, I like libertarian principles generally. But, the paradox of libertarianism is that by not regulating the private market more effectively individuals are often interfered with more by private companies and other individuals than if the private market were better regulated. We in the U.S. tend to put a premium on non-interference by government, but non-interference should extend beyond government entities.

        1. Good comments, Joshua. My father, at the start of his dementia, was being targeted by many get rich quick mail campaigns. The worst was Reader’s Digest. And there is absolutely no recourse in this country. The post office cannot do one thing. He was (is) far from alone.

  64. OK, now for the 24th. The GFS takes it OTS. Well, The Euro delivers a coastal hugger, so much so it comes inland in CT and crosses Eastern MA. NO Snow at all for the coastal plain. Again, plenty of time for adjustments. But this run tells me the threat is real.

    http://imgur.com/2MUwBar

    1. Can you guess how many times the track will shift between now and next week? I think we should establish an over / under pool.

      1. Accuweather already posted an article about the potential for a big coastal storm next week. It is as good as gone now. πŸ™‚

  67. You gotta love New England. An oldie below.

    60 above zero. Floridians turn the heat on. People in New England plant gardens.
    50 above zero. Californians shiver uncontrollably. People in New England sunbathe.
    40 above zero. Italian and English cars won’t start. People in New England drive with the windows down.
    32 above zero. Distilled water freezes. Moosehead Lake’s water gets thicker.
    20 above zero. Floridians don coats, thermal underwear, gloves and hats. People in New England throw on a flannel shirt.
    15 above zero. New York landlords finally turn on the heat. People in New England have the last cookout before it turns cold.
    Zero. People in Miami die. New Englanders close the windows.
    10 below zero. Californians go to Mexico. People in New England get out their Winter coats.
    25 below zero. Hollywood disintegrates. Girl Scouts in New England are selling cookies door to door.
    40 below zero. Washington DC runs out of hot air. People in New England let the dogs sleep inside.
    100 below zero. Santa Claus abandons the North Pole. People in New England get frustrated because “the caah won’t staaht”.
    275 below zero. All atomic motion stops. (Absolute zero on the Kelvin scale). People in New England start saying, “cold ’nuff for ya?”
    500 below zero. Hell freezes over. Red Sox win the World Series.

    2. Absolutely laugh out loud funny.

      Zero got my biggest laugh but the hot air in Washington was close as were the last two. Thank you for sharing.

      1. Saturday night just as the windchills hit about 20 below my husband decided to fire up the grill for a rib eye. I tried to explain to him that there was something profoundly wrong with a person who finds it appropriate tongrill in sub zero temperatures – he just smiled. And he’s only been a New Englander for about 18 years – see what we do to people? But the steak WAS really good….

        1. I like your husband’s enthusiasm. Where was he from before he succumbed to our nuttiness (and clearly succumb he has)? Mac grilled year round but I don’t think he would have chosen to do so on his own. Steak sure is better grilled.

          1. He’s actually not from the US orinially but came over to finish his Masters and fell in love with Cambridge and Boston. (Oh – and me I guess – haha!) He’s a foodie and gave up going to the Sorbonne to marry a local girl and live in a tiny starter apartment in Arlington and manage the Cambridgeside Galleria Papa Razzi. Amazing to think that was almost 20 years ago now!

            1. I knew I liked him. Reading your comments, I know already he is a smart man who made a great choice. Reminds me some of Mac….well, not that he made a great choice…but he ended his world travels to settle in Massachusetts…and was an exceptional cook. 20 years….more than special.

              1. Oh forgot….French? Although Mac was Scottish, he considered himself tied to many countries and therefore a mutt πŸ™‚

                1. Mine is a mutt too! He is Berber Moroccan (natives of Morocco) grew up attending French Catholic School, went to undergrad in Spain, Masters in France. I met him and thought I found my way out of NE and into the world – little did I know how he had finally found his true home and the closest I have gotten to my original world tour plans was the world showcase at EPCOT – [INSERT SMILEY FACE WITH TONGUE OUT HERE.]. Sure wish we could have known Mac – although from your postings I kind of feel like I did πŸ™‚

  68. 2PM…
    Manchester NH 35
    Concord NH 36
    Both locations calm.
    Pittsfield 34 with a light wind from the north.
    Just 3 that haven’t joined the party in southern and south central New England. πŸ˜€

  69. We’ve just had a monsoon with heavy wind blown rain in Manchester, CT. Still very windy but rain has lightened up a bit. Co-worker in Cromwell just reported thunder and lightning as well.

    1. Apparently it is a “Meso Low”……

      A small wave of low pressure that forms along a line of convergent winds (a form of low-level jet), usually in the warm sector between an exiting high and an encroaching polar cold front (sometimes in concert with a feature called a”pre-frontal trof”). Under the right conditions (especially if there is favorable upper-level support), it provides a focusing mechanism for strong upward lifting of warm, humid air that forms an organized squall line of thunderstorms.

      These squall lines are often quite long-lived, move along a fair distance, and almost certainly produce severe weather along their path.

      Mesolow formation is fairly common in the lee of the Appalachians and the Southern Plains, where low-level jets are a dime a dozen.

      1. You beat me to the explanation. It is indeed a meso low. They are far more common than people even realize. πŸ™‚

  76. 55 with some good gusts here. Word on tree is that because it is split, it is less likely to come down. Splitting makes it more elastic-like and it will bounce back into place. Not sure if I’m buying that but it will be taken down at 2:00 pm tomorrow.

      1. It is a limb that shoots off the trunk. It is maybe 10-12 inches in diameter for about 10 feet then narrows and goes up 15 or more feet , narrowing most of the way. Lots of branches shooting off of it.

        It is split horizontally and the split goes pretty much to where it shoots off from the main trunk and up about 4 feet.

        Good to know when worse wind is. I’ll stay away from the room it would hit. Thank you JP.

        1. Sounds like a split we had on our Dog Wood tree.
          We did a special taping of it and saved the tree for about
          5 additional years before it finally succumbed.

          Hopefully where the tree is located is somewhat protected from the wind and not in some sort of wind tunnel.

          1. It is a huge tree with lots of offshoots. One limb ended up in the neighbors yard last year. It is in the open for wind. I may head to Sue’s πŸ™‚

              1. Hopefully turned out ok? Still catching up – so if you posted an update further down I’ll see it soon.

      1. Blue Hill on the other hand, gusting to 46. The higher winds
        are still above.

        BUT when the big time convection comes through will that
        bring it to the ground. We shall see.

  78. Gusting to 18 according to Wunder’s closest station to here (about 1 mile). Temp 53

    I know others have asked. What weather stations would you folks recommend? I want to get a new one for the new house. I am not going with an anemometer this time. It is my favorite part but I have never had one work long enough to make it worth the expense. I’d like digital for rain, high/low temps, etc. though. Thank you.

    1. If you are under the convection, stay away from that room as the convection
      is likely to bring down the stronger winds from above. You may get the stronger
      winds out your way an hour or 1 1/2 hours before here.

      good luck

  81. I don’t see any yellow but sky is dark grey here in Sudbury. It’s here. It has started to pour and winds have really picked up.

    Vicki – it is eerie looking and I love it too!

  82. Decided up tic in the winds here and rain has commenced. I see that DARK sky
    that was being discussed. Looks like a nasty Summer thunderstorm rolling in.

  83. Just had a mini-huricane come through HA. Rain was going sideways with mad wind…then it just stopped.

  84. Here comes the HEAVY RAIN and wind. I can hear it now from my office.
    Looking out, it’s pouring buckets and the wind is howling. The visibility is about
    1/2 mile or less just like in a snow storm, except it is raining. Cool!

    Should be a fun ride home shortly!!

        1. Nope. In terms of a commute though rain is easier than snow…but people suck at driving no matter ha.

  85. GFS furthest out to sea after it being in perfect position for two runs, lets see if it stay out to sea and surpressed or goes back to what it was saying before.
    GFS ensembles are closer to the coast. (around 40/70)
    EURO is close to the coast, but could be a snow-mix-snow type of situation as it looks as if the low gets caught by the high pressure? JP can you you tell me if I am correct, Looking at the euro, it looks as though the storm kind of makes a loop around southern new england. (

    much can change with that system (systems)

    Also when I was at umass boston, very windy but it was a warm wind. Got home in billerica, very strong wind but much cooler feel to it

    1. EURO is ALL RAIN for Boston and ALL of the coastal Plain.
      Heavier snow N&W of 495. Some snow in the 128 belt. Have a look.
      Remember you can click on image to enlarge it. πŸ˜€

      Here is the snow map for you:

      http://imgur.com/tM75409

      1. just a 30 to 40 mile shift east and I will love that, yeah rain south and east of boston but nice snow for my area up into the ski areas. πŸ˜‰

  87. Vicki, I have acurite, with some additions that i put on it with my brother engineering skills, probably the best one I have had, had in over 4 years and it has not had to be replaced. My others that I had before last a year or two.

    1. Quieter here. Hard to see in the dark but I’m using Getting Betters proven technique of putting one ear to the window and am not hearing a lot of wind

        1. Hmm my smiley face for Vicki disappeared. Okay – old school method –

          [INSERT SMILEY FACE HERE].

      1. Due to technical difficulties –

        For JpDave –

        [INSERT THREE SMILEY FACES HERE]

        Haven’t yet mastered icons on postings so hoping my version of html will suffice. Just call me Ken Olsen. Or Wang for short.

            1. LOL – ok here’s mine – and even if it turns into a gorilla or something thank you for the link – I know nothing about WordPress.
              Here goes, deep breath-
              πŸ˜€

        1. When we were kids out playing all day in the summer the street lights coming on were the universal sign you had to good it home.

          Playing all day without your parents knowing where you were…80’s man.

          1. Sadly it was safe then. We all had bells our parents rang when it was time to come home for dinner. We all knew the sound of our own bell. I still have mine and recognize the sound.

            Closest my kids came was days spent riding their horses in the woods of holliston, Ashland and Hopkinton. There was typically an adult rider along but not always.

      2. I would get up, go on the computer for maybe an hour or so while eating breakfeast, or tv depending on what was not being used. then pack a backpack with some snacks and stuff and go play in the woods, play in the backyard, etc I can not tell you how many days there were in which I was outside all day and sometimes not even seeing my parents lol

  94. Gusting to high 20s. Recycling and trash barrels just went over. I got to rescue them and the mess it made.

  95. 18Z GFS has the Wed/Thurs storm back, but it’s too close to the coast for all snow…many more runs to go

  96. Well, it was a bumpy ride, but I made it! Descent was a little iffy…. good thing you don’t have to fly straight in over the water into BOS or anything…. OY!

  97. This comment is a repost it went where I didn’t intend. User error

    Quieter here. Hard to see in the dark but I’m using Getting Betters proven technique of putting one ear to the window and am not hearing a lot of wind
    Reply

    1. I think I hold today’s record for user error but I plead rookie status. Scroll back to see my sad attempts to use aquick smiley face responses. I would try to repost here but at the rate I’m going I might end up crashing the site or something.

  98. latest gfs shifted way west, one major thing is missing in that run, or well miss placed, No high pressure to the north and northwest. Its to the west over the ohio valley (matches the placement) similar to the euro Last time they agreed this far out it shifted east πŸ˜‰

  99. On air Harvey stated that it becomes “complicated” beyond the next 7 days. Of course it can mean most anything at this very early stage, but if it is going to be a matter of precip type, then an all snow event may not be in the cards. We will certainly see being many days out still. I just hope these inside runners don’t become dominant to end the winter season, but I guess what can one expect from El NiΓ±o?

    1. We won’t likely go into a pattern of inside runners but weak Great Lakes systems and out to sea systems as we head beyond the first week of March.

      I’m glad Harvey said that and left it alone. It’s too far away to worry about details on model runs. The only thing we know is there is a storm or unsettled weather threat the middle of next week. We don’t have the ability to discern details 8 days out. πŸ™‚

  100. Apparently we lost power in Natick…got a call from Eversource. First time that has happened since we moved there in 2010. Happy to not be there for it…not looking forward to resetting all the clocks.

    1. Seems like something new.
      I also received a call yesterday morning after a 15 minute outage stating the time the power had been restored.

      1. Eversource called Us the other day to. They reported it was out, when they expected it to return and then called when it was restored

  102. How the bleep does a model take an OTS from 6 hours ago and make it an INSIDE RUNNER RAINORAMA 6 hours later???????????????????????????????????????

    I know it is a long way out, but this STINKS and I SMELL and INSIDE RUNNER
    on the way!!!!

    18Z GFS Boo

    2. I wouldn’t put much stock in an 18z GFS for a system 8 days away. To answer your question, a model does this because all it takes is a very small difference in handling of 1 short wave early in the run and everything later in the run is impacted. This is why guidance this far out should be used loosely and that multiple runs should be looked at for overall trends. πŸ™‚

  104. Drive home was fun, but very quick. It rained so hard briefly that it brought visibility
    down to 0. Don’t see that too often around here. I think I have seen it 3 or 4 times
    in a lifetime. πŸ˜€

  106. AND THAT’S ALL SHE WROTE. Some impressive albeit brief rain and a few decent gusts of wind. Was there damage around anywhere?

    I do believe I witnessed 60 mph. Perhaps 50 at best, more likely low 40s for most
    gusts. (where I was. I suspect Logan came in higher as well as Blue Hill)

      1. I guess it’s like realestate. Location,location,location.
        I knew you or someone would say that
        The second I hit the post button.
        I just never see it. Never

      1. I only really have it when I threw snow from before…so “unnatural” snow piles. At least when we get more we are starting from scratch.

      1. At least with convection and timing. It feel short on the lightning front or at least what I could see.

        Did anyone see lightning and/or hear thunder?

        I surely did not.

  111. Drove from CT to Warwick RI tonight for a meeting and it was an interesting drive to say the least. Lots of snapped branches along the side of Route 6 in eastern CT. Not sure if they were from today or the heavy snow event a week and a half ago. The entire town of Brooklyn was without power and it was a free for all with none of the traffic signals working. Hopefully the drive back will be better.

    Snow is completely gone in Warwick except for piles.

  112. While we are analyzing model performance, the Euro had this storm nailed for many days with the Binghamton to Montreal track while the CMC and the GFS were waffling back and forth with a more easterly track. Something to keep in mind for the storm next week once we get into its sweet spot range 3-5 days out.

  113. GFS has one storm Wednesday/thursday
    EURO has two storms to look at
    wednesday and the other out to sea at the moment but on Friday.
    my point, the weather models do not know, I knew i was going to start something yesterday when I mentioned it πŸ˜›

  114. Snowcover essentially wiped out – no surprise. Anything left other than piles will be gone tomorrow. No everlasting snow pack THIS winter!

    Gone doesn’t mean over. We have a few more shots left at least into the first week of March.

    1. Man I remember the pile out front of my house last year…went from ground to mid window height on the first floor. The pile included roof rake runoff as well.

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