Wednesday Forecast

169 Comments

2:12AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 17-21)…
A weak trough crosses southern New England today and a cold front passes early Thursday. Neither of these will cause any significant weather, just some cloudiness at times today and perhaps a snow shower early Thursday. High pressure building across the Great Lakes will slide eastward and into the New England region later Thursday into Friday with fair and chilly weather. A broad low pressure area moving eastward across southeastern Canada, will return cloudiness to the region later Friday with a risk of some light snow/mix later Friday night and a few rain/snow showers Saturday. This system exits on Sunday with fair, breezy, and cool weather expected.
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs in the 40s. Wind W 5-15 MPH and gusty.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-32 except 30s Cape Cod. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny with isolated snow showers in the morning. Mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs in the 30s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny, then clouds increase late. Chance of light snow/mix at night. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few rain/snow showers. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs upper 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 22-26)…
Unsettled period of weather expected February 22-24 with a couple waves of low pressure bringing the risk of rain/mix/snow. Fair and colder February 25-26.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 27-MARCH 2)…
Storm threat in the February 27-29 period with rain/mix/snow possible. Fair and cool by March 1-2.

169 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Some mixed signals concerning the system next week.

    Gfs has a bomb just off out coast, with snow inland and primarily rain along the coast.
    CMC and Euro are both funky, especially the Euro. The Euro never develops a bomb,
    but rather a couple of weaker systems. Both Cmc and Euro want to deliver some snow
    to us.

    Snowmaps

    GFS

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016021706&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=240

    CMC

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016021700/gem_asnow_neus_40.png

    Euro

    http://imgur.com/lSUoauC

  6. Snow took a beating overnight…almost nothing left but my artificial snow piles. Farm field behind me mostly grass again.

  7. Sorry to get off topic but saw something online that made me miss some old stores around here…anyone have memories of Woolworth, Caldors, Zayres, or Bradlees?

    Back to weather…my weather app shows snow next Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday? I know the weather app often stinks but curious if three days of snow pans out?

    1. If you were on my FB, you’d see that I posted a few pictures of bags from some of those stores recently. 🙂

    2. Of course I remember those stores. My daughter used to work at Woolworth’s while attending school. 😀

    3. Fond memories, WW. The Ben Franklin in Belmont was just sold. They named it Hollingsworth 5 & 10 which I thought was a special tribute. I did hate to see it close as I remember shopping there for all sorts of things back to the time I was only a few years old. My friends and I would walk to Zayres in Fresh Pond, browse (we didn’t have money), and then spend the money we didn’t have on a Fribble at Friendlies. Somehow when Mac and I went out without the kids, we always ended up at Bradlees. It got to be a joke that it would not be a date night without ending at Bradlees.

      See what you did —- you unleashed the memory part of Vicki 🙂

      Thanks !!

      1. My Dad recently gave me some electric meat cutter (like the ones at the deli…he’s been giving me stuff as they downsize). The box still had the Bradlees price tag on it.

  8. Snowpack took a beating in the far northeast part of ma but we are still holding onto about 3-4 inches of snow. I’d say coverage is around 80%-90% or so. It got down to 32 last night so everything froze up. I’m not sure what to make of next week, but there is certainly some interesting weather ahead.

    1. Took a beating here also. Down to a solid cover except where it was shoveled but very thin. Depressing really because yard looks nasty for any house showings.

  9. I do NOT like the set up for Next week. It’s too easy for it to support an INSIDE RUNNER! Doesn’t mean it will be an inside runner, just not the set up we would
    like to see for a good ole fashion snow storm that is all.

    1. I’d agree. PNA going positive, NAO staying positive. Seems more supportive of a track very close to, over or west of New England. (IE, inside the benchmark.)

            1. That’s why I asked the question.
              Inquiring minds want to know.
              I “presume”/”Guess” that an Arctic High
              Either gets entrenched in Eastern Canada or one Builds down into that area
              and hangs tough for us??????

  10. Green stuff already growing in my backyard including snowdrops which are the first “official” flowers of the new season. They don’t usually show up until late February. I assume I can blame this on El Niño. Is this a true sign of an early spring upcoming?

  11. A few splashes of sun, a bit of blue sky and some high cloudiness. Doesn’t look too breezy.

    In addition to snowmelt, the southerly winds opened the Bayside. If the ice pack extended as far as the eye could see Monday, yesterday it was from the high tide line out about 50 ft. But, the shoreline ice was very thick. Some of the “bergs” appeared to be 3 to 4 feet tall.

  13. Off topic. I have read here several times here about people using heat pumps on their air conditioning system to heat their house and save money. What exactly is this and how does it work?

    2. Back. I have one. It’s basically built into the outside condenser. It just works the opposite of when you run central air…it reverses the process and extracts heat from the outside air and pumps it into the house. It works up until 28 degrees or so, and at that point, it runs too hard and the air blowing in it’s warm enough to lower the thermostat. At the point I cut over to my oil FHW. From the end user side, it’s the same as running the AC…I just select Heat on the thermostat instead of Cool

      If you really want to run it year round (less then 28 degrees) they install an additional heater in the attic that will make that work. Think of it as a toaster…it’s heated coils so when the cold air comes in, the coils heat it then pump in down the ducts. This is, however, very expensive to run.

      Right now, it costs me about $50 a month to run it which I have a lot this winter.

  14. Robins have been around the past few days… sign of spring
    American Black Birds have not been sited as of yet.

    1. I will have to watch that later but it will be interesting to see if he and I share the same ideas.

      1. Based on that video I can understand why the models are trending inside runners. The two jet streams have to coordinate just right for I-95 snows as Bernie suggests.

      1. Right or wrong, I love his videos and a I agree, a spectacular
        presentation every time. Most times he has been spot on, this year anyway.

  16. 12Z GFS looks utterly DISGUSTING for next week. EERILY SIMILAR
    to Yesterday. I CAN’T STAND INSIDE RUNNERS!*(@#&*(&!@*#^&*!^@&*#^!&*@^#&*!^@*&#^!&*@^#&!^@&#^!&@#^&!^@&*#^!&*@#^&*!^@*#&^!&*@#^&!^@*#&^!@&*#^&*!^#&*!&*#@&@#*&!@^

    Ok, time for a cup of coffee.

    1. I’t going to be a RAIN event all the way to the Freakin NORTH POLE!!!!
      SANTA can open his swimming pool. POOTHETIC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      1. Only slugs us with a wide spread 3-4 inches of RAIN!

        OK, I’ve had. May we please enter SPRING now.
        I have had my fill of cutters and inside runners.

        SPRING NOW! SPRING NOW! SPRING NOW!

            1. I don’t see that this is anything other than an INSIDE RUNNER, do you?

              TK NOW would be a very good time for you to chime in about your comment:
              “Keep an eye on Eastern Canada”

              This run has SICKENED ME!

              Excuse me while I PUKE my guts out. 😀

        1. Yes, imagine.

          Just wait until the Euro joins ranks.

          Please tell us how it WILL be wrong.
          I’d sure like it to be WRONG!

          1. Well let’s start with the percentage of time an operational GFS run is spot on 7 days in advance…. 😀

            1. Considering yesterday at this time the GFS was well east and almost OTS, that is good enough reason for me!

              1. But that’s different. When it starts to show Cutter and/or Inside runner, then it usually pans out.
                Sure the track won’t be exact, but
                it generally doesn’t all of a sudden
                turn into a coastal.

                I will FEEL BETTER IF the Euro comes in with a Coastal.

                If the EURO has an Inside runner, do you think they are both out to lunch. I don’t think so.

                So the jury is out until the Euro is in.

                This is for Tuesday and it’s Wednesday, that’s 6 days.
                Euro is usually pretty good at that range.

                Time will tell.

  17. CMC has joined camp GFS although they look different and there is some snow with the CMC with Monday’s system and then a bit up front on the larger one midweek. It’s way to early to throw in the towel. I think a lot of this hinges on how the next two northern stream systems pan out. The CMC has both further south than the GFS delivering more cold to the area

    1. Good summary.

      But even the CMC is an ultimate inside runner.

      That’s 2 strikes.

      Will the Euro strike em out?

      Let’s wait and see. 😀

      1. If you count the GFS 7 days out and the CMC just about any time as strikes then it’s time to hang up the umpire gear. 😉

        Watch what ECMWF does… 🙂

        1. That’s what I am waiting for before I jump off of the roof.
          😀 😀 😀

          I am having a bad day, and these runs are frustrating the hell out of me. I shouldn’t even look at them.

          I am resigned to an inside runner.
          If it changes to a coastal that is a bonus. 😀

  19. Keep the faith Dave! The GFS and CMC did not have this last storm modeled correctly at all 6-7 days out and their track record at this range is putrid as you would say. Frankly I would be more concerned if they showed a direct hit one week out because that rarely holds.

    Teleconnections right now are decent with a +PNA/-EPO and AO trending negative near the end of next week.

    I would put my money on the Euro, especially when we get into its sweet spot range 3-5 days out.

  21. I’ll put my money on TK any day of the week. He was the one who correctly told us to watch for the GFS and CMC correct to the Euro which was the first to catch on to our last storm. I didn’t mention it earlier but the CMC hinted at a high pressure developing over eastern Canada, but he positioning was off and if moved to the east too quickly.(TK has said to watch Eastern Canada and my bet is that with the deep snowpack up there we may see cold build enough up there to get us where we need to be to turn the inside hugger into a coastal snow storm

    1. I agree – this storm will not end up as modeled by the CMC and GFS at 12z. Track will end up farther east. The question is, how far east. The high in eastern Canada is key as to whether this ends up a snow or mix/rain event. This has the makings of an ice storm somewhere, if the track is too close, with that high bleeding cold air down from eastern Canada.

  23. Like Tk stated above look in eastern canada… I believe the high on both the gfs and canadian are being placed in the wrong location

    1. In further looking over the Euro, the accumulations are cut down some in
      the Boston area and it is due to SLEET, NOT RAIN. It has surface temps
      below freezing while 850 MB goes above freezing for a period of time.

      BUT as they say, this is 6 days out, so there will be some fine tuning of how
      this plays out.

      Needless to say, there is plenty of moisture available. All we need to do is
      keep it from going inside. 😀

      1. Dave, I was mentioning this above. This has the makings of an ice storm somewhere if track is too close – high in eastern CA will be bleeding cold air in from the north at the surface.

        1. Sure enough. This one will keep us on our toes.

          As depicted it will be sleet for a while along the coast.
          925MB temps along with surface temps remain below
          freezing. That is a formula for sleet and not freezing rain, BUT it wouldn’t take much to change that scenario.

  29. Euro is a basically a benchmark track for the midweek storm…still some p-type issues for the immediate coast but a general 6-12″ across SNE and 12″+ for western CT, western and north central MA.

    Note also – the 12z Euro and CMC track the Monday system SOUTH of us. This may deliver a few inches of snow overnight Sunday into Mon AM

  30. Too early to tell what will happen, but at this stage it seems that significant snow across SNE is one of the less likely scenarios with this event. If it gets too amplified, it will cut inside. Else, it likely struggles to consolidate and actually ends up mostly out to sea (I think this may happen, even though the idea currently lacks much support). Tough to get the right “middle of the road” scenario that would bring more snow further south. Many days off though, best just to call it a potential threat for now. Have to keep an eye on a shortwave moving through on 2/22, and what degree of high pressure builds in behind that. Those factors will influence storm track and thermal profiles.

  31. Now the next set of adjustments from the ECMWF and eventually other models should be to take that system that looks dominant around midweek and stretch it out into a series of smaller lows between February 22 and 28.

    1. The Euro is already showing that to some degree with weaker coastal lows on 2/22 and 2/27, before and after the bigger storm on 2/25.

      What do you think is the mechanism that prevents the mid-week storm from becoming more dominant?

      1. Positive tilt trough and more strung out PVA. Typical of this pattern. Often the model will try to create one dominant low when in fact it’s going to be a series.

        It is possible we still do have a dominant feature, or even 2, during that stretch of time, given it’s over an entire week. I just favor a more strung out set up based on what I’ve seen before, and taking into account typical model errors in this situation.

        1. Excellent. Thanks for the lesson.

          Given you think a series of lesser events, do you think
          the total amount of snow could end up pretty much
          the same as if it were one larger event?

          Curious as to your thoughts. Tx

          1. That’s always possible and we’ve seen it more in late-season events, so don’t rule it out, provided we get mostly snow from the events.

            1. Of course that is always the proviso. 😀

              But after that, major pattern change.

              Can we interpret that to mean
              SPRING?

              OR could there be a surprise later even after the change?

              1. Always room for surprise in New England. But I do think we go into a pattern of seasonable to mild weather mid March onward.

                Ocean is not as cold as last year which will be a bit of a boost as well, but not prevent the types of days you despise. Sorry about that. We’ll have some. 🙂

                1. Can’t have Spring without at least some of those days.
                  Perhaps we can keep those to a minimum? 😀

  32. Also, the system the GFS is showing for the first few days of March will probably end up a little slower and a little stronger. That may be the finale before a big pattern change, though I’m not sure about that yet as there may be one more cycle similar before that.

    Have to watch a couple indices to figure that out. 🙂

  34. I say 2 or 3 more storms with accumulating snow this winter.
    Euro is on board of what I was thinking 2 days ago. First high to the north starts sliding away but another filters right back into eastern Canada.

  35. Let’s Add some JUICE to this discussion. The 12Z FIM is out.

    Here is the surface map at 18 hours

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim7_jet/2016021712/130/3hap_sfc_f180.png

    Here is the 850 mb chart at that time. Similar to Euro in that there would likely be Sleet and/or rain along the coast, going back to snow. So it would be snow to sleet/rain to snow.

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim7_jet/2016021712/130/temp_850_f180.png

    Snow map

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim7_jet/2016021712/t3/totsn_sfc_f204.png

    Clearly rain/sleet drastically reduces the accumulation on this run and this is only one run.

    Another perspective on this and this one ain’t no inside runner either!

  36. JP I will take that track, thank you, I would rather see the coast and southeast mass get rain and give areas from Boston points north and west in the jackpot area, Would love to see a few feet of snow fall in the stratton area before i get up there on the 26th;)

    1. If all worked out well, it could end up all or mostly snow in Boston even
      with that track. It all depends.

  38. I also see that the euro has a 1000 mb storm to the south of the region. Wondering if this is what tk was talking about in terms of 2 possible systems.

      1. of course JP but the 18z is coming out now and its more fun watching weather models than doing chemistry 😀

        1. I could not agree more. Chemistry blow chunks.
          I HATED IT with a passion. On the other hand, Physics
          RULES!! Loved physics!!!

          1. im more if a Bio/environmental science kind of guy. Never had a good physics teacher so could not really say if I would hate it or not. But I will be showing my chemistry stuff a chemical reaction come may 18th with fire.

            1. Hard to interpret.
              I see that comment as 1 of 2 possible:

              1. You mean class is over and you will
              BURN your chemistry book on that date.
              2. You have some sort of experiment that
              makes up part of your final grade that you
              have to present on that date.

              1. first one but not the actual book, the other stuff. Book could come useful in the future, I like to keep the books or sell them for money

  41. TK – Thanks for your long range analysis for the rest of the month into mid-March! 😀

    Now, is there a decent chance we end up “beyond” your 25-35 inch range? I would think with the series of snow events next week plus early next month would certainly do that.

    I guess the only issue I have is…Will there be enough cold air from Canada to last a number of days for each event to be mostly snow or at least snow/mix? Will there be “reinforcements” so to speak?

    1. I don’t think they will go over 35 and I’m going to be wrong about half the snow in one storm. It would have to have taken place with the big Mid Atlantic dumping.

  42. I think there are a number of different possibilities on the table for next week, specifically Wednesday/Thursday. 00z runs will be interesting to see, along with future runs from the different models.

  44. 18z GFS has trended further south with the Sun night/Monday AM system, though not quite as far as the Euro and CMC. This is looking more and more like a sneaky snow event.

    Midweek system is very strung out but still loaded with moisture.

  45. Just got invited to a wedding in Rockport, ME for August 20th.

    TK can you tell me what the weather will be????

    Just kidding, But I may be asking you when we get within 10 days or so. 😀

    1. The 3rd Saturday of August will be awesome, because I’m going to a huge fireworks display in southern NH. So you’ll be fine. 🙂

      1. Is that Mac?

        If not then the only other thing I could think of was
        Bob as in Hurricane Bob, which struck on 8/19.

  46. Mark,

    I want to thank you again for that link to another model site.
    I was just looking it over. It has some nice stuff in there.

    It also has a panel where you can determine the snow ratio for a location.
    Pretty cool.

      1. Matt, Select Winter and you will see. Perhaps it’s not
        available on all of the models. It was on the 4k nam and
        the HRRR. I just assumed it was available on all.

    3. No problem! It is a relatively new site. I saw someone using it on another forum and thought it was pretty cool. Real nice graphics and I like the point and click soundings feature.

    2. No, it is amazing that the snow melted so quickly. You may be right though mark about a build up. The models will be quite interesting the next few days.

  50. Glad to report the tree limb has been removed. Unfortunately, the guy left a mess behind that gets added to our to do list before we can show house. Still better than mess it could have been

  51. The last 12 days or so have taken us on an odyssey of almost all types of weather: early spring, snow, record cold throughout NE, crusty snow cover, freezing rain, downpours, thunderstorms, high wind, record warmth in some places in NE, and then a calm winter evening. It’s enough to make my head spin.

  52. Vicki, my older brother also has his birthday on August 19, and his name is Bob! He happens to be adopted and seldom misses a chance to tell me that I was an accident and he was “chosen”…

    1. Then he is a special man…Both for August 19 and a hurricane on his birthday named for him. However, there are no accidents….although, you made me laugh…well, more like a really happy smile !!

      1. I should add my brother in laws bday is also August 19. Although, Mac made a point of reminding folks he was three minutes older. I still shudder at the thought my mother in law had no idea she was having twins

    1. Nope, now the Euro is a coastal hugger/inside runner and the GFS is OTS.
      Loads of confusion with the models. They don’t know what’s going on.

      Then GFS shows much activity, for now ALL OTS, but close.

      Sit back and enjoy the model roller coaster. 😀 😀 😀

      1. I may be off base, but seems to me if the models keep flipping back and forth like this, then what is the likely solution???
        Perhaps a direct hit? Not out of the question.

        Oh not for nothing, the GFS lost the system for Monday while
        the Euro has it a close call for us with snow just to the North.

    1. FWIW, ALL of the Ensemble means keep the next week system
      Just off shore, kind of close, but still a coastal. Would possibly introduce
      Rain/sleet along coastal plain. But NONE of the ensemble means show
      an inside runner. Not the Euro, GFS or CMC.

      So we’ll just have to sit back and enjoy the ride. Not much else we can do. 😀

  58. New post! Haven’t really made any changes yet – just too early to resolve anything about next week.

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