Friday Forecast

258 Comments

1:57AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 19-23)…
High pressure slips off to the east today and a warm front approaches from the west. This front moves through tonight and will produce a period of snow with no more than minor accumulation. As milder air arrives a few rain showers may cross the region early Saturday but the balance of the day will be rain free, windy, and mild, with a sun/cloud mix. A very weak cold front will cross southern New England by early Sunday, and that day will turn out breezy but not really any cooler, with mainly dry weather. But in this pattern of fast-moving systems, another low pressure area will come along from the west southwest and coincide with the arrival of slightly colder air with a period of rain to snow possible later Sunday night into part of Monday. A small area of high pressure will bring fair weather back to the region later Monday into Tuesday, though clouds may return later Tuesday ahead of a developing system along the East Coast.
TODAY: Sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Highs in the 30s. Wind light N morning, light S afternoon.
TONIGHT: Thickening clouds. A period of snow after 9PM to around midnight from west to east, accumulating a coating to locally 1 inch favoring areas north of the Mass Pike. Lows around 30. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting to SW late.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers through mid morning, then a mix of sun and clouds. Highs around 50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy day. Clouding up night with a chance of rain/mix late. Highs in the 40s. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Overnight and morning mix to snow then breaking clouds. Lows around 30. Highs around 40.
TUESDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 24-28)…
A storm of rain/mix/snow likely February 24 into February 25. Fair later February 25 through February 26. Another risk of unsettled weather February 27-28.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 29-MARCH 4)…
Unsettled weather may start the period (February 29) and end it (March 4), with fair/cool weather in between.

258 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  3. Good morning and thank you for the update TK.

    All I can say this morning is that the models are schizophrenic!!!

    How can the GFS go from a lazy elongated off shore system do a facuckta
    LAKES CUTTER within 6 hours?

    BUT, GFS has the SUnday system suppressed WELL to the South, so perhaps it’s
    a BAD RUN.

    HOWEVER, the CMC and EURO now have the Wednesday system as an Coastal Hugger/Inside runner and virtually ALL RAIN for SNE!

    AMAZING!

    GFS

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016021906/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png

    A cutter’s OFF the table??????????? huh?

    CMC

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016021900/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png

    EURO

    http://imgur.com/98HVgCR

    CMC and EURO similar, GFS is OUT TO LUNCH!!! Pay no attention to the model
    behind the curtain.

    The Euro and CMC have the right idea. Now we need to get them to shift East
    by 50-100 miles and we’ll be all set. AND there is time for that to happen.

    That is For Wednesday, next post for Sunday Night.

  4. Thanks TK
    Tweet from Bernie Rayno
    models now coming back west with storm. very typical with storms..back and forth..back and forth

  5. Regarding Sunday night, the NAM is most robust, giving a general 4-6 inches.

    NAM snow (Kuchera method)

    http://pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=NAM&p=24hrsnow&rh=2016021906&fh=81&r=ne&dpdt=

    NAM snow (10:1)

    http://pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=NAM&p=24hr10snow&rh=2016021906&fh=81&r=ne&dpdt=

    Here is the Kuchera snow ration (about 8:1 or so for Boston area, which sound reasonable at least as I don’t think this one will be 10:1)

    http://pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=NAM&p=snowratio&rh=2016021906&fh=81&r=ne&dpdt=

    Another Kucher snowmap

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016021906&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

    GFS for Sunday night

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016021906/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_11.png

    CMC for Sunday Night

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016021900/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_14.png

    position not bad, but it shows RAIN

    Euro for Sunday Night

    http://imgur.com/cpBxULM

    FIM For Monday AM

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim_jet/2016021900/130/3hap_sfc_f084.png

    Quite a spread for Sunday Night/Monday

    It is sort of out of the NAM’s Wheel House near the end of it’s run.

    So I don’t know

  7. Regarding Sunday night, the NAM is most robust, giving a general 4-6 inches.

    NAM snow (Kuchera method)

    http://pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=NAM&p=24hrsnow&rh=2016021906&fh=81&r=ne&dpdt=

    NAM snow (10:1)

    http://pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=NAM&p=24hr10snow&rh=2016021906&fh=81&r=ne&dpdt=

    Here is the Kuchera snow ration (about 8:1 or so for Boston area, which sound reasonable at least as I don’t think this one will be 10:1)

    http://pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=NAM&p=snowratio&rh=2016021906&fh=81&r=ne&dpdt=

    Another Kucher snowmap

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016021906&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

    GFS for Sunday night

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016021906/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_11.png

    CMC for Sunday Night

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016021900/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_14.png

    position not bad, but it shows RAIN

    Euro for Sunday Night

    http://imgur.com/cpBxULM

    1. Yup, but not much. UP to about an inch, and with SW winds, could change
      over to rain before even achieving that. We shall see.

  9. NWS re: Wednesday System

    PTYPE IS ANOTHER STORY AS THIS SYSTEM COULD END UP BEING A DEEP INSIDE RUNNER…JUST HUG THE COAST…OR STILL POSSIBLY PASS NEAR THE BENCHMARK AND SET MUCH OF THE AREA UP FOR HEAVY SNOW. AGREE WITH THE PRIOR FORECAST DISCUSSION THAT PROBABLY THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND SNOW CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN INLAND WITH A CHANCE OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO JUST RAIN EVEN
    FAIRLY FAR INLAND.

  10. I feel better about Sunday night than I do about Wednesday.
    That fact that the models keep coming back to a Coastal hugger/inside runner
    tells me that perhaps that will be close to the final solution. BAD feeling about
    Wednesday system. There is still time, but I am not liking the looks of that one.

    Prediction. 12Z Euro comes back East, bit likely still a coastal hugger/inside runner.

    We’ll know in about 4 hours. 😀

    Right now I am MORE Curious to see the 12Z NAM.

  11. I think mid week system is similar to the past one. Snow to mix to rainorama. Many model runs to go before that.

  12. I’m finally comfortable enough to start leaning…

    Sunday night: Minor snow event.
    Midweek: Everything, but predominantly rain during the heaviest.
    February 27-29: The storm threat window remains, more likely white than wet.

      1. Brief coating that will not stay around. Temps don’t go down much tonight, then start going up a little overnight. Might even rain a touch on Saturday morning.

    2. Of course. And WHY would it be any other way????????????

      I am SICK to death of INSIDE RUNNERS and LAKES CUTTERS!!!

      SICK OF IT!

    1. This is a very early idea for me because I don’t usually venture here this far in advance, but I could see a system coming in pre-dawn as snow/mix for Boston, then going to rain during the day.

      This rough idea is actually based on the CMC model which I often don’t put too much stock in but has been rather consistent in its handling of features for many runs. Please continue to check back. 🙂

  15. TK – Since now it appears that midweek will be more wet than white, does that mean no cold high in Canada will be available as you earlier hinted at as a possibility?

      1. Not so much the positive tilt you were saying before.

        Looks more neutral, than positive. Not quite negative

        Allows system to hug coast and come inside up here.

        IT SUCKS!

  16. Good morning and thank you, TK.

    Heard a cracking noise in the night. I ignored it as I have been hearing odd noises in the night of late. One of them was the Charleston SC music globe my inlaws gave me years ago playing several notes. No, I am not hallucinating. Mac had a wonderful sense of humor 🙂

    When I opened the blind, I found one of the windows in my room completely cracked. It is a double pane Anderson and both panes are cracked. Has anyone had this happen from the cold? I did notice some ice inside the other day for the first time ever so suspected the seal was broken but ….. ???

    2. I’m sorry to hear that Vicki.

      If you open and close the windows and doors in that room and they seem to stick more or less than they used to, that could be a sign that something has indeed shifted in the house. (You might not want to open the window that is cracked.)

    3. I wondered about shift. All windows open normally but that is wall where I have always heard the loudest roof pips. Thank you both.

  17. I am ready for SPRING. I can’t take any more snow, no rain, no OTS, no Rain, no snow, wait at minute, it is rain after all.

    Just give me SUNSHINE and 60s in March, 70s in April, 80s May though September.
    Thank you very much. I don’t want much do I? 😀

    NAM will be out shortly. Watch it SUPPRESS the Sun/Mon system.

    1. That precipitation anxiety is only caused by watching models. Take 3 days off watching them and watch what happens. 😀

      1. Nah, at this point I really don’t give a rat’s ass, really.

        It will do what it will do. Am I surprised? Not in the slightest.

        This model flipfloporama is really something to behold, that is
        all I can say. What can fix that? Obviously the data being fed into these models is just not good enough (Or not enough data points, so the models miss something). Then do the models handle what is given to them properly? Oh well, what can I do, but sit back and enjoy the ride.

  18. Volatility has been my only complaint this winter. I loved yesterday’s weather, and this morning’s good, too. But, of course, winds will now shift south, warm up with rain showers and clouds (40-50 degree weather and cloudy is my definition of purgatory). Practically every day has been different, which keeps it exciting I guess, but I am a very boring person who likes consistency.

    1. Volatility goes with the territory around these parts. OF course we do go
      through periods where it is more volatile than usual. Enjoy.

      Red Sox Pitchers and Catchers reported to Spring Training yesterday!
      It’s almost time for BASEBALL!

  19. FWIW, the 12Z NAM shows ZILCH for snow tonight in SNE. There may be some
    in the air at the start, but it simply gets too warm to accumulate and then it
    goes over to Rain. Not surprised at that. 😀

  20. wider variety of possibilities, one system at a time. First the sunday night/monday system. Then the mid week system, Models will be flipping out through out the weekend. I do have to say, I freaking hate it when one day there is nice powder and then the next day it is warm and melts, and then refreezes into hard icy snow in the evening (I hate spring skiing which we have had all winter) I would like this next system to dump major snow across ski country for next weekend. I will survive this weekend with wachusett saturday evening.

      2. Bad news, JP. Not that there is much to annihilate there now. Was the same last year as well. Not good for them at all.

  25. Leap Day is coming up and I think we need a fun contest. This year we don’t have a giant snow pile in my brother’s driveway or snow mountains in mall parking lots, or the snow farm gargantuan snow/trash pile to monitor.

    It will be a little while before we can verify the snow #s but we can start something in the mean time. I was thinking, for example, first dates of 70, 80, and 90 at Logan. What do you all think of that?

      1. Ok. The reason I bring up leap day is that I’d like to get all guesses in by then. It only gives us 10 days but what if the first 70 comes real early? It’s happened before just as blizzards have happened in April. 🙂

            1. Somehow missed yours first time through but have it now. June 18 would be a safer bet…Best day of the year don’t ya know 🙂

              1. I don’t think you missed it – I can only log on once or twice a day and have a bad habit of sneaking in responses to posts that are hours old – this as a great example! But if you do see this tell me what is 6/18? Weather related or is it maybe your bday or Mac’s?

        2. What if it reaches 80 1st? Would that be considered 70 and 80 the same day? Or just 80? I don’t believe that happens, but curious.

              1. If Boston had only been 69 or lower and then hit 80 then 70 and 80 would be listed as occurring on the same day.

  26. Thanks TK !

    March 14th …… First 70F. (Lack of Midwest snowcover and the Great Lakes are largely unfrozen)

    April 2nd : 2-4 inches of snow.

    April 21st : first 80F and 90F.

  30. Love the idea of the new contest. I’ll put all together at some point if every puts on contest page unless someone else wants to do so.

    Thank you, Philip, for making that suggestion

      1. Thank you, shotime. It is replaced. I knew I had an extra window in the shed. We removed it years ago when we put an ac in that window. It turned out to be a brand new one, never opened. I have no recollection of why it is new but suspect it must have been cracked and was replaced under warranty. An old neighbor who has been doing some work here to help get house ready for the sale came by, replaced the window and God Bless him wouldn’t take any payment. I did order a new one from Andersen since new owners may want to take AC out of window. It cost $123.00. Not bad in the long run.

        1. That’s awesome it all work out so well!
          As for your old neighbor helping you out – that’s your good karma coming around 🙂 You do a lot for others!!!

  31. my guesses.
    70 March 28
    80 april 15
    90 May 20

    spring predictions
    Well above average temperatures with below normal rainfall. (above average snowfall in march)
    First heat wave is over memorial day weekend 😛

  33. We’ll round them up and get them there. Post on contest if you can but here is fine if you wish others to see your guesses.

    1. If it is ok, I like shotime’s plan of posting on both. Unless someone else wants to keep track, I may well miss them if they are interspersed on the regular pages.

  36. FWIW, 12Z GFS SUPPRESSES the Sunday system. No surprise there, either.
    I think the overall trend is to suppress this system. We shall see what the Euro
    and CMC have to say.

  37. One more thing regarding the CMC for Wednesday.
    NO on big system. It now has a STRING of systems strung out over 3 days,
    Wed-Fri. (Sound familar? That’s is exactly what TK said would happen)

    TK’s been liking the CMC lately. 😀

  38. I have not posted my 70, 80 and 90.
    I need to think a bit about it. Probably some time over the weekend.

    generally I’m thinking the 1st 70 comes in March
    1st 80 in April
    1st 90 in May, but “could” actually come late April this year.

  41. 70 – March 21st

    80 – April 13th

    90 – June 5th

    Here’s a current forecast in French for the city of Quebec. Needless to say, they’re getting some snow this weekend. Of note are the averages for February 19 (25F for a daytime high, which is some 14 degrees colder than the average for Boston on this date), the records (-24F! set in 1967; and the highest temp ever recorded on Feb 19th was 43F!). A city just 400 miles north of Boston is so dramatically different climatically. I notice this every summer when I visit as heat and humidity are basically not in their vocabulary. I also love the way they say sunset (“coucher soleil” which literally means “sun goes to sleep”).

    http://www.lapresse.ca/meteo/ville/quebec_caqc0441.php

  42. Looking west, its currently 59F in Chicago at 11am CST and 71F in St Louis.

    If our surface winds turn W or SW tomorrow (as opposed to Southerly) and we get more sun than expected, I wonder if there is opportunity to see our temps soar past 50F ??

  44. Here are my guesses:

    70 – April 3
    80 – May 21
    90 – June 14

    Thanks, Vicki, for keeping track! I’ll post on the Contests page too.

  47. TK – do you think there’s any chance we may avoid the snow early Monday? I have to drive out to Western Mass to Lenox area for a 10:30 am meeting and had planned on leaving Westford area between 7-8 am but as you may recall the thought of driving in the snow makes me reach for the Tums with my right hand and the paper bag to breathe into with my left…so thinking about cancelling and hiding under the bed.

  49. 12z Euro is a mess…

    Still has the Sunday night system and brushes us with a light snow, mainly south of the Pike.

    Then it delivers not one but two storms midweek – one Wednesday and one Thursday. Both are inside runners and mostly rain for SNE.

    1. I was going to use stronger language, but yours will do.

      Here’s what I am thinking:

      Sunday night MISS
      Everything else RAIN

      What else would it be this Winter?

      The only hope would be the CMC solution where perhaps at least the final wave would be cold enough for some snow.

      Just NOT LOOKING GOOD at this time.

    1. John, I was there last year on a cruise in late July – stopped in Nassau. It was hot and humid and in the upper 80’s. However there is constantly a nice breeze on the water and beaches so we did not find it unbearable at all.

  52. Oh FYI Spa is being filled as we speak and the water should be warm enough by tomorrow night going to set it at 100 degrees for now top temp is 104. My wife is trying to speed up the process by pouring pans of hot water in it to speed up the process I kid you not you can’t make this up. The poor thing is very sore and just wants to get in it .

  53. As some have said previously, it really feels, smells, and sounds like spring out there today. I am an avid gardener and love the Spring so to echo OS if it isn’t going to snow, there’s no point in wasting any time getting there. I’m not giving up completely on snow next week, because the models have been all over the place showing big deviations from run to run. The Euro will be in its sweet spot for the midweek storm over the weekend and I imagine we’ll begin to get more consensus on what will unfold.

      1. I hope not, although it would certainly be appropriate given how this winter has gone. I’d gladly give this winter away as long as we could guarantee an early start to winter next year with prolonged cold and snow. My interest begins to wane with regards to snow the later into the season we get………

  54. Regardless what happens, the end of the Euro run looked better. Colder with northern stream systems passing to our south and chances for coastal redevelopment. Whatever systems affect us next weekend into the first week of March stand to have a better chance of being white than wet. And there appears to be a train of systems pretty much every 2-3 days in the works for the next couple weeks.

    2. Actually scratch that, the run hadn’t fully updated and I was looking at the end of the 0z. The end of the 12z run actually looks like Spring across much of the US but take it with a grain of salt at this point. The models are all over the place. There still isn’t even agreement on Sunday night let alone next week and the week after.

    1. What is interesting is that Bernie’s early thoughts on a possible track is right down the middle of yesterday’s “cone of uncertainty” which is right over or just west of Boston. If I understood Bernie correctly, I don’t understand though how Boston would get into the mostly snow area with that track.

      Maybe this midweek storm not as clear cut just yet after all?

    2. Thanks again JJ.

      Just watched it.

      We don’t get much snow out of that, BUT perhaps it will spare
      Ski country and that would be a good thing.

  56. I’m actually going to take advantage of this nice weekend to get ahead with the spring cleanup in the yard. There are many twigs and branches scattered across everywhere,

        2. I remember it well. We always had our yearly conference in April at the Copley Plaza. We were walking around dripping wet because no one had summer clothes.

          1. We also had extreme heat during April vacation either 2001 or 2002 or daughter said maybe 2003. She is thinking 2003.

  60. AND…The 18Z NAM is now a SWING AND A MISS for Sun/Mon.

    It has .1 to .2 inch qpf, but too light to stick and/or flip from rain to snow.

    Here is the snow map.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016021918&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=072

    When the Euro AND GFS is South, chances are the NAM is wrong and it has now
    mostly corrected. Probably even farther South with 0Z run.

    KISS the Sun/Mon sneaky Snow GOOD-BYE as well as the Mid-Week Snow.
    We LOSE TOTALLY.

    1. Who are you Debbie Downer? 😀

      BUT you are correct for sure. BUT, get a really good storm and it doesn’t
      matter. It matters most with marginal events and/or events with lighter precipitation. Get a Storm cranking and it doesn’t matter.
      2 reasons:

      1. If the storms is really cranking, the cloud layer(s) will be thicker and block
      out the sun better.
      2. The snow rate would be so intense, it would offset any effects if there were even any.

  62. Posted this on Contest page also…sorry GettingBetter, I couldn’t fit your name so shortened it a tad. Hope that is ok!

    These are numbers I have so far. I jotted them down first and then added to spreadhseet. Like rainshine, I cannot read my own writing so please let me know if I have any incorrect numbers. Thank you

    Charlie 3/29 5/2 5/30
    ChaseCarry 4/2 4/25 5/25
    Christie 4/3 5/21 6/14
    GettingBetterAlways 4/14 5/30 6/20
    JimmyJames 3/1 4/15 5/22
    Joshua 3/21 4/13 6/5
    Keith 3/21 4/22 4/23
    Mark 3/28 4/19 4/30
    Matt S 3/28 4/15 5/20
    Philip 3/23 4/17 5/30
    Rainshine 3/28 4/15 6/3
    Shotime 3/31 5/27 6/5
    Stephen Clarke 3/22 4/22 6/22
    SteveT 3/12 4/6 5/16
    Tom 3/14 4/21 4/21
    Vicki 3/13 4/11 6/18
    WeatherWiz 4/26 5/25 6/7

    4. Love it! Definitely should have considered a shorter handle – I would steal OS but I think I might not be very salty – sigh.

  63. Ok, I decided not to wait. It’s just a guess anyway, so here goes:

    1st 70 Degreee day – 3/19
    1st 80 degreee day – 4/14
    1st 90 degree day – 5/5
    1st 100 degree day – 7/4

    I know I added one. 😀

    I posted this on contests as well.

    1. It’s funny. I was going to add an extra yes or no question: Will Boston make 100 on at least one day? I guess your answer is YES. 😀

  64. I put the corrected and updated list on contest page. I don’t have computer on during weekend so will add more on Monday but will try to keep track here this weekend and write them down.

      2. Mark I cannot even blame my handwriting. I wrote down 4/30.

        🙁 Now I decree that yes 5/30 is your date but if it should be 4/30, you get that too 😉

  66. Tweet from Bernie Rayno
    While I believe the EURO has better handle on system, I firmly believe what you are looking at is NOT the final answer. expect more changes

    1. Being further inland jj, I believe you have a better chance of snow and ice, that is if the low pressure tracks right up and over NYC like I’m hearing, I am curious though on tk ‘s latest thoughts.

  68. Fisher, which I will say I’m beginning to watch more and more is thinking no major snow for mid week, and is leaning more wet than white. Curious to hear tk’s latest thoughts.

    1. I will add Harvey says starts as snow briefly, then changing to rain. Leaning towards this scenerio, but did say still fine tuning. It will be very interesting to see future model runs.

    1. We had a hot spell around the marathon not too long ago also.

      I have not recorded your numbers so please feel free to check back

    1. That’s RAIN North of the Canadian Border. I wouldn’t want to be a New England
      Ski operator. Make snow, a cutter or inside runner takes it away. Make more snow. Repeat and repeat and repeat. PATHETIC!!!!

  72. This is what Eric actually said:

    Storm #1 – Snow/ice for most of SNE (including Boston) for Wednesday with track just underneath us.

    Storm #2 – Rain for most if not all of NE for Thursday with a typical inside runner track well to our west as well as a surge of very warm air with temps 40s at least.

    1. HRRR reflectivity charts have TOTALLY and COMPLETELY MISSED THIS.
      Not sure what it means, but the latest run does NOT show it at all.

    1. Of course you are not. We have plenty of time. I am copying guesses to my notes and hopefully will remember to add them in Monday. I will be sure to post the names of those I have added on Monday so you know

    1. Thanks Mark. The Albany NY 10.0″ vs. 41.9″ is the most telling. WOW! to say the least. Talk about a snow hole!

      1. Growing up in that area, that one stood out to me as well. This has been one of the least snowiest winters I can remember there.

      1. and supposedly the first that strong to ever hit Fiji. 165mph sustained winds and gusts to 200. what an impressive eyewall!

        1. Agreed, very impressive.

          I guess a few days ago, the models had this thing going well underneath (south of) Figi and unfortunately, in the past couple days, the track was shifted north to this head on track through these islands.

          920 mb if I’m reading the reports correctly.

      1. Geez that is awful. My brother went there this past year for his honeymoon and was blown away how beautiful it was there.

      1. Although I don’t think that inch will happen . There actually will be two small batches coming in. The tempature should be rising after 12 meaning second batch will be very light rain I think .first batch just don’t think it has enough juice in my opinion . And this is for the city that I’m talking about .

  84. Could the CMC and GFS look any different….they are only off by 500 miles or so, no biggie….CMC sports a coastal and is very close to snow in boston

  85. To say that guidance is all over the place with regards to the midweek storm is an understatement. The GFS is a 970mb bomb over Buffalo with rain up to Quebec City and a blizzard in Detroit. The CMC tracks the low over Nantucket with rain at the coast and heavy snow just inland….12″+ over Worcester County west to the Berkshires and portions of northern CT. Comical.

  86. FWIW, the GFS ensemble mean is well east of the operational run. I don’t see this storm phasing near the Gulf of Mexico into a monster and taking the far westerly track like the GFS is showing. A weaker system (or pair of systems) tracking further east is more plausible.

    1. No sooner do I say that and the 0z Euro comes in looking almost identical to the GFS! And the UKMET is similar as well. All three now have a single powerful storm tracking to our west with a surge of warmth and rain for all of New England. CMC appears to be the outlier.

      Caveat: the ensembles are still all over the place – many inside runners and several members out to sea on the other extreme. Seems like if this thing phases, it is a monster storm passing to our west; if it doesn’t, it is weaker and passes over or south and east of us. Not liking the trends but we are still 6 days out….

  88. One thing to watch with the storm later next week is the models on Monday morning/afternoon. It looks like the energy for this doesn’t come ashore until the early morning hours of Monday for this.

  90. From NWS Taunton in regards to mid week storm
    SUNY STONY BROOK ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY PLOTS OFFER SOME EXPLANATION
    AS TO WHY WE ARE SEEING SUCH DRASTIC DIFFERENCES…EVEN AMONG AN
    INDIVIDUAL MODEL/S ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE DUE TO
    HOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS HANDLED AS NORTHERN STREAM COMES OUT OF
    ARCTIC AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENTERS DESERT SOUTHWEST…AS WELL AS
    HOW MUCH AMPLITUDE OCCURS IN RIDGING DOWNSTREAM. THIS LEADS TO BIG
    VARIATIONS NOT ONLY IN SURFACE LOW TRACK BUT IN TIMING…WHICH
    GIVEN PATTERN PROBABLY WILL NOT BEGIN TO BE RESOLVED UNTIL MODEL
    RUNS ON SUNDAY. EXPECT TO SEE RUN-TO-RUN VARIATIONS UNTIL THEN.

  93. If that thing could be just offshore just like the last one we would be looking at much different scenario and one that would make snow lovers happy.
    Just not our winter.
    I saw on the twitter CPC for next winter of 2016-17 has us in equal chance category both for temps and precip

      1. That just means at this point there is not enough evidence to strongly lean one way or another.

        Makes one wonder why they bother to go out that far. 🙂

          1. La Nina Winter 2016-2017, with many other factors to consider, probably a very cold first half to 2/3 and a milder ending with near to above normal snowfall.

  94. Go back to the tweet from Bernie yesterday
    While I believe the EURO has better handle on system, I firmly believe what you are looking at is NOT the final answer. expect more changes

  95. Experimental FIM Model Fields
    Model: 15km FIM9_jet Area: CONUS 130 Date: 20 Feb 2016 – 00Z

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2016022000/130/3hap_sfc_f144.png

    UKMET

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=096&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=120

    The JMA JP35 Model Forecast has an intesting solution

    http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_120HR.gif

  98. Updating the blog…and no I don’t have the answers yet either. 😀 I have leanings, but not definite answers. You cannot, in this pattern, this far in advance. 😀

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