Monday Forecast

152 Comments

7:26AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 22-26)…
High pressure provides dry and seasonably chilly weather today. A complex storm system in 2 parts brings unsettled weather late Tuesday through early Thursday. An initial wave of low pressure will lift northward along the East Coast and run into lingering cold air with snow/mix overspreading southern New England during Tuesday evening before changing to rain at night as it warms up both surface and aloft. A frontal boundary left behind as this wave departs will keep damp to wet weather going on Wednesday then more rain will be generated by a second storm’s warm front. This larger system will pass west of New England and drag its cold front through by early Thursday with a band of heavier rain but very mild air just ahead of the front. By late Thursday and Friday it will turn somewhat colder, with a few rain showers around Thursday evening as a final trough of low pressure comes through, then dry weather Friday.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs upper 30s to middle 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear except partly cloudy eastern coastal areas and Cape Cod. Lows in the 20s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Highs in the 30s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow/mix developing south to north then changing to rain. Minor snow accumulation. Temperatures steady in the 30s. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Periods of rain/drizzle. Areas of fog. Temperatures rise into the 40s.
THURSDAY: Cloudy through morning with periods of rain showers, possibly heavy, and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Sun/clouds afternoon. Mostly cloudy with a passing rain shower at night. Temperature rise into the 50s morning, may reach 60 some areas, then fall back to the 40s evening.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 27-MARCH 2)…
Turning much colder during the course of the weekend February 27-28, coldest on Sunday, with snow shower/squalls possible at some point late Saturday to early Sunday. Chance of snow/mix February 29. Fair/cold March 1-2.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 3-7)…
Timing uncertain but one or 2 storm threats possible during this period. Temperatures below normal.

152 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  6. Good morning and thank you for the Monday update TK.
    At this point, I am rooting for 60+ on Thursday. Why not? 😀

  7. Euro wants to deliver for 3/1. Probably just another TEASE, but it does fit in with
    TK’s storm threat of 2/29. What’s another day. Close enough.

    http://imgur.com/60QQT4R

    First things first. 12KM NAM wants to give us a little thumping with the initial
    wave of low pressure tomorrow evening/night.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016022206/namconus_ref_frzn_neus_15.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016022206/namconus_asnow_neus_20.png

    32KM NAM

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016022206&time=INSTANT&var=ASNOWI&hour=048

    All of the mesoscale models give us something in the range of 2-5 inches.
    (Except the SREF which shows NOTHING)

    Global models little to nothing. Go figure.

    12Z NAM cooking now.

    1. 12Z NAM warms up the 850mb rather quickly severely limiting any snow tomorrow night. Not sure how much sleet there would be, if any.

    2. Just saw this comment, Hadi. Thank you, North, for replying as I would have missed it.

      I am doing well and hope you are doing well also, Hadi!!

  9. Thanks TK. I must admit, I got a little touch of spring fever this weekend, but would still welcome one big storm to round out the winter. I had to pick up a tremendous amount of broken limbs yesterday–primarily pine. Most clean-up I’ve had to do since Irene.

  10. up to 2 inches of snow is possible in the Merrimack valley with snow and sleet changing to a period of freezing rain to rain. the change over will happen from south to North with everyone being rain by noon time Wednesday. Periods of rain continues through Thursday. This is not what I wanted the week before my first race in 5 years. I might not due it. Last time I raced in crappy conditions, I got a very bad level 2 sprained lower and high ankle sprain. (very close to damaging my ACL as well)

  12. More snow the further south you are in SNE with latest run of 12z NAM. When talking snow only talking about an inch or two.

    1. N0…the arctic was once tropical. Greenland was once green. These things go in cycles. The Earth was once much much much warmer than it is now…of course back then there were no “experts” to tell us we were warming the planet. Like it or not we are simply living between ice ages right now.

      “If you’d visited Antarctica 50 million years ago, you could have lounged beneath swaying palm trees and enjoyed balmy 68-degree weather.

      Yes, seriously. Drilling off Antarctica’s east coast has revealed fossil pollens that came from a “near-tropical” rainforest that once covered the icy continent, AFP reports. Analysts estimate that the lush forest thrived throughout the Eocene period, some 34-56 million years ago. The new findings corroborate the 2010 discovery of turtle bones — which also indicated that Antarctica was once home to a much warmer, lusher climate.”

      1. 50 million years ago antarctica was not at the south pole it something called continental shifts, so yes, it might have been at one point, hell the eastern USA was at the tropics as well

      2. we are also not suppose to be in between ice ages we should be in one if you look we should have started to cool 45 years ago ;), humans are the leading cause of the release of CO2 and other green house gases. We are cutting down forests which also consume co2 and release O2 which is furthering the issue, more war fare, leading to more desertification. Major not regulated damming of rivers, causing rivers to dry up. Major habitat loss for many animals. Major plastic pollution in our Oceans which help regulate temperatures. Yes climate changes, yes its a natural process, but it is happening so fast, it is happening due to human activity. Not just one event but all of these events that been happening in the past 15 years show you the big picture of what is happening and how humans are involved. I highly disagree with you and those of you who deny it

        1. Matt, You need to learn when you disagree you don’t want to be disagreeable/ overly argumentative. You have great stances and I applaud you!

      3. Sure there are cycles, but you can’t hang your hat on that
        and say that is the reason we are warming.

        We have been spewing crap into our atmosphere since the industrial revolution. To say that it has had Zero effect is foolhardy imho.

        Quantifying that effect is extremely difficult and therein lies
        the problem.

        I saw at a website (I can’t recall the site) where some scientists came up with a way to graph the cyclical warming with our
        contribution overlaid on top of it. It was pretty cool. I cannot
        attest to its accuracy. But it clearly demonstrated that we
        were “adding” to the already cyclical warming.

        Just my 2 cents on the subject.

        1. In my opinion, you can choose to debate the cyclical/non-cyclical. It is an unknown. No one here or anywhere can say for certain that what we see is not cyclical or is cyclical.

          You cannot, however, chose to debate the fact that we have polluted every corner of our world. On that basis, and that basis alone, there should be a consensus among our political folks to address what we have done and continue to do.

          It seems to me that the steps we take to address the latter would also address the off chance that our changes are not cyclical.

          It is a win-win.

    2. Negative AO in a strong El Nino a significant factor in the short term. When you break down the polar vortex and send lobes of it equatorward, the atmosphere compensates by sending warm bubbles poleward.

      1. That is fine as long as the warm lobes don’t get Sucked up into
        the Great Lakes.

        So, seriously, for practical weather, what does it mean for us?

        Thanks

  15. Thanks TK !! Back to work today 🙂

    I wonder if inland areas tomorrow night really struggle with an icy scenario.

    This first mini low won’t be very strong, so I don’t think it will have surface winds to scour out low level cold air and since the initial impulse is southeast of New England, what little wind there is probably will be from a cold/cool direction.

    If your 20 to 30 miles inland Tuesday night, probably should be rooting that not too much precip occurs.

      2. Except where all the people live. Big rainorama on the coastal
        plain. BUT that is 10 days out. Let’s follow it’s evolution. For sure
        it will not verify as depicted. Nice to see it there, however.

        We shall see.

              1. I know you’re just busting my chops. There are more new England people in the rain area
                than there are in the snow area.
                And that is all I was implying. 😀

  18. I corrected your 90 degree day, Mark. My calendar reminder read “change Marks first 90 to 5/30” It took me all morning to remember what the heck I meant 🙂

    And I added arod, John and North

    Who did I miss?

    Arod 3/25 4/22 5/17
    Charlie 3/29 5/2 5/30
    ChaseCarry 4/2 4/25 5/25
    Christie 4/3 5/21 6/14
    GettingBetterAlways 4/14 5/30 6/20
    JimmyJames 3/1 4/15 5/22
    Joshua 3/21 4/13 6/5
    JPDave 3/19 4/14 5/5
    Keith 3/21 4/22 4/23
    Mark 3/28 4/19 5/30
    MassBay 4/30 5/15 7/7
    Matt S 3/28 4/15 5/20
    North 3/25 4/4 4/29
    Philip 3/23 4/17 5/30
    Rainshine 3/28 4/15 6/3
    Shotime 3/31 5/27 6/5
    SouthShoreKid 3/27 4/18 6/19
    Stephen Clarke 3/22 4/22 6/22
    SteveT 3/17 4/6 5/16
    Tom 3/14 4/21 4/21
    Vicki 3/13 4/11 6/18
    WeatherWiz 4/26 5/25 6/7

      1. Awwwww shucks – twernt nothin’ guys 😉

        Actually, it is my pleasure. I don’t contribute much in the way of weather knowledge and like to try to thank TK and all of you in any other way I can.

        I’ll post this list on the contest page since it seems to be ok.

  19. I’m staying out of that conversation about whether we are warming or not. 🙂
    I’m just here to say thank you again tk for the update. It looks like quite a bit of rain for midweek. How much tk?

  21. Another thing trending in our favor if you like wintery threats the next couple weeks….

    Continued positive PNA:
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

    AO tanking negative:
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

    Still cant seem to get the NAO to go negative but it is trending less positive/more neutral by next week:
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

  23. 12Z Euro now bring precipitation to our area tomorrow night, however, other than
    a very brief period of snow/sleet for a coating, it goes to rain.

  24. 12Z Euro also has said too bad folks, I was kidding around about snow for 3/1.
    I’m going to send that to Canada and give you RAIN. System traverses North of us,
    ala 12Z GFS.

      1. And we know that will change several more times before the week is out. Seriously, something is brewing the next couple weeks. Watch 2/29, 3/3 and 3/7. Our accumulating snow is not done for this year.

  27. in the FWIW department, the latest HRRR has a Slug of precipitation headed our
    way tomorrow PM. How long it holds together and how long the column remains
    cold enough for snow are the big questions. We shall see what later runs look like. 😀

  30. 18z NAM maybe a little too aggressive.
    I think its a 1-3 inch snowfall similar to what we had last week.

  32. Winter Weather Advisories up for parts of interior MA
    POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY…THIS WINTER
    WEATHER ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO NORTHERN
    CONNECTICUT…NORTHWEST RHODE ISLAND AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST
    MASSACHUSETTS AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING
    RAIN IN THESE LOCATIONS AS WELL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
    MORNING

    1. Looks like you may get some snow and ice jj, it appears though the Immediate Boston and Providence areas will escape this one. Time will tell.

      1. Yes I believe areas east of i95 and inside of 128 will see maybe one inch of snow, but I believe areas west of i95 especially the valleys and hills of interior southern new England might wake up to a rude awakening come morning

  33. Not a big deal with snow where I am Charlie but the timing not good for the afternoon commute and maybe some issues for the Wed morning commute.

    1. snow is not what I think will be an issue, what I think will be the issue is the freezing rain possibility.

      1. Discussion to go with above

        SNOW ACCUMULATIONS… APPEARS THE STRONGEST LIFT/FORCING WILL
        CLIP OUR SOUTHERN ZONES OR REMAIN OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE
        ISLANDS. AT THE SAME TIME…SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BE
        WARMING THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THEREFORE…EXPECT
        SNOWFALL TOTALS TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM A COATING TO 2 INCHES. THERE
        IS A LOW RISK FOR LOCALIZED 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS IF STRONGER FORCING
        ENDS UP FURTHER NORTH INTO THE DEEPER COLD AIR LIKE THE 18Z NAM OR
        12Z RGEM DEPICT. SOMETHING LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY
        AND TRIED TO SHOW THIS IN OUR PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL GRAPHICS.

  37. Not buying anything more than a messy coating tomorrow night at the coast. Perhaps some minor accumulations inland, and up to 3 inches in the hills and higher elevations. After that it all washes away. My hope is that with a push of more consistent cold starting late this week and lasting through next week we’ll get a few more snow chances at the coast. I do see the possibility for more snowfall inland and up north in several of the recent runs, which gives me hope as I’d like to cross-country ski soon.

  38. My prediction for tommorrow night before the rain washes it away.

    Boston .6
    Providence coating
    Worcester 1.7 .2 of ice
    Hartford 1.1 .2 of ice

  39. I like a double compromise: RGEM/NAM compromised with CMC/GFS. Basically that turns into 1-3 inches, but I’m not convinced the max amounts are just higher elevations. It’s going to be where the intensity is the greatest, and that will depend on where the best forcing ends up. We’ll have cold air around in enough of the right spots for snow for several hours. The coast will warm first, but it’ll take a little while. The upper levels will warm a bit later, but will eventually. I’m not as concerned about icing as I was with the event last week.

    1. TK, are you thinking that we may actually overachieve in terms of snow tomorrow evening? We seem to be doing that much of this winter, relatively speaking, considering an El Niño season.

      1. Not really. I like the 1-3 except coating to 1 over coastal southeastern MA, Cape Cod, and southern RI/CT.

        I suppose there’s an outside shot that a 4 inch amount could take place, but it’s not likely and it wouldn’t be all that much in terms of overachieving as it would be basically due to 0.1 inch more melted that this location would have to see to achieve it. 🙂

  41. I noticed that Harvey and Eric have 50+ temps for next Monday the 29th…not very encouraging for any last snow event for early March IMO. It appeared earlier that late next weekend would be very cold again, but now it has backed off considerably if not totally the opposite.

    1. There are some signs that lobe of the PV may not come all the way into the Northeast but swing more eastward across southeastern Canada. We’ll see.

      1. That appears to be what the 12z/18z GFS and 12z Euro are picking up on. And it is resulting in the Mon night storm passing to our north, which brings us back into the 50’s with rain showers early next week. The 12z CMC and 0z Euro brought the cold air and track of the storm to our south, resulting in an accumulating snowfall and highs in the 30’s. What a difference a run makes.

  42. So fisher is saying this is a carbon copy of last Monday’s storm . I hope not because that storm sucked . The warm air never made it in till like 4am or so . We worked are ass off but everything kept freezing it became a waste to salt almost . That was a tough one . People on here who do snow removal know exactly what I’m talking about.

          1. We shall see. It’s cold enough to get the job
            Done, but that’s not all that cold. Not to me/for me and perhaps Joshua.
            If it means more snow, bring it on?

  43. I think Boston has a great chance of seeing snow tomorrow. At the very least we get a few hours of light snow, perhaps a brief period of moderate to heavy snow Tuesday night if things line up correctly.

    Low confidence forecast overall given sensitive boundary layer conditions.

    1. Sure, but the big question is how.much.
      The Nam has been waffling from an inch or
      2 all the way up to 6 inches or so.

  47. The 18z gfs is showing that it is having a hard time to place the area of high pressure’s.
    12z gfs http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016022212/gfs_mslpa_us_42.png
    High north of the lakes/our area

    now 18z gfs
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016022218/gfs_mslpa_us_42.png
    high pressure pushes south
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016022218/gfs_mslpa_us_43.png
    over northern plains and pushes east/ southeast
    This is just showing me that the gfs is having major issues

  48. I think boston has a very good shot at a couple of inches . It seems to me anyways that earlier maybe it was minor and maybe now it’s a tad bit more than that . We shall see.

    1. It’s sorta crazy that millions if not billions of state/town money goes to salt and or sanding to have it washed away in hours. Not saying it’s a waste, but just wow!!

      1. You Need to treat the road to the condition of the road . You pre salt before a storm , if it’s icy out with rain in the forecast you salt to the condition of the road as long as warranted . You plow and salt during a snow storm till it’s not warranted . SAFETY is the number one priority hands down no excuse . Salt is a very effective tool in keeping the roads safe .

  51. If we get 50s and rain next Monday I will be nauseated. Is it too much to ask for, a string of cold days and some snow? I guess so. I’m already suffering from S.A.D. as I anticipate the months ahead.

    1. I’m not saying this to be a wise guy, but last week was pretty cold with snow. Broke records that were held for 50 yrs if I’m not Mistaken?

      1. You’re right. I’m being a curmudgeon. It’s just that my two favorite seasons – fall and winter have now essentially come to a close. It’s weather. Not that important. I’ll get over it.

      2. Hey Charlie…as you know I might just have a tendency to take exception to some of your comments….sort of 😉 but I always have believed that it is important to be positive. Your comment was great and fair and it made me smile. Nice to see you back.

  52. OK here goes with golf joke.

    Back when Tiger was cheating on his wife,
    He hooked up with a woman and made passionate love. Afterwards even though he didn’t smoke he lit up a cigarette.
    A bit later the woman asked him to do it again. He happily obliged. While recuperating after, she asks again. This time he reluctantly agrees. Later, totally and completely exhausted, she asks him to do it yet again. This time Tiger screams out:
    What the hell is Par on this hole anyway????!!#

    1. JJ your in more of 1-3 inches of snow, some ice, but you to will be washed away during Wednesday. We shall see though, I’m no met. 🙂

  57. I believe it begins lightly snowing around 6-7pm Tuesday night, and it will snow light to moderate, but not heavy enough to really accumulate in the immediate Boston area. I believe temps will be at or above freezing the entire time. I can see a light coating on grassy surfaces, or car tops for a brief time up till about midnight, but after that aloft temps rise. I just don’t see the ground being cold enough to support accumulation of any significance.

  59. Good morning.

    Once again the Mesoscale models are more robust for tonight:

    32KM NAM

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016022306&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=048

    12KM NAM

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016022306/namconus_asnow_neus_17.png

    4KM NAM

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016022306/nam4km_asnow_neus_17.png

    RGEM

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2016022306/rgem_asnow_neus_16.png

    GFS is the least robust of all

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016022306/gfs_asnow_neus_9.png

    Personally, I’d go with the mesoscale models for this event.

    WWA “should” be expanded if not done already. Will check

    1. They were designed for this. 😀

      We shall see.

      Officially the NWS went with a GFS/Euro blend and tossed the mesoscale
      models out the window. Interesting.

      HRRR appears to be about in the middle. Perhaps that is the model of choice????

      1. I will say this the mesoscale models ending up being pretty close if not verifying for the Mid Atlantic Blizzard back in January.

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