Tuesday Forecast

197 Comments

7:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 23-27)…
Here comes the 2-part storm system with low pressure #1 delivering mix/snow to ice/rain from late today through tonight and low pressure #2 bringing a round of heavier rain and wind later Wednesday to early Thursday. A trailing trough from low #2 will bring a few additional showers of rain/mix late Thursday. We start out cold and this will be the reason for the frozen precipitation associated with low #1, but much milder air aloft and at the surface will take over as #1 passes and will be in place for #2. Drier and cooler weather is expected for the end of the week.
TODAY: Becoming cloudy. Snow/mix developing mid to late afternoon RI and southern MA, may start as rain South Coast and Cape Cod/Islands. Highs in the 30s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Snow/mix developing south to north then changing to rain except freezing rain interior valleys. Evening lows upper 20s to lower 30s then rising into 30s all areas overnight. Snow accumulation a coating to 1 inch coast from Boston south, 1-3 inches elsewhere. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Periods of rain/drizzle, though deepest valleys north central MA and southern NH may still see freezing rain/drizzle early. Areas of fog. Temperatures slowly rise into the 40s but may not get there until evening in some valleys. Wind light E to variable.
THURSDAY: Cloudy through morning with periods of rain showers, possibly heavy, and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Sun/clouds afternoon. Mostly cloudy with a passing rain shower at night. Temperature rise into the 50s morning, may reach 60 some areas, then fall back to the 40s evening.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 40s.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs 35-45.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 28-MARCH 3)…
Currently looks like the coldest air that was previously expected for February 28 will stay to the north and the day will be fair and seasonable. System from the west brings a chance of snow/mix/rain February 29. Fair and colder March 1-2. Storm threat March 3 but not sure on timing or any precipitation type this far in advance.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 4-8)…
Unsettled early in the period and again possibly at the end of the period. Temperatures below normal.

197 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

    1. The only reason I can see for the lesser amounts on the coast is boundary
      layer temperatures. Looks to be in the Mid 30s while it is snowing along the coast, but below freezing inland. That combined with a higher sun angle, I think is the reason for the lower coastal amounts. Warming aloft appears to occur
      pretty much straight South to North.

      1. One more reason. Some of the runs are showing LESS
        qpf along the coast and MORE inland. Not sure why, but
        appears to be the case.

      2. It looks like Boston goes down to about 34-35 degrees, but like you said west and north of Boston goes down to about 30-32 degrees. Then temps begin to rise to upper 30’s low 40’s by Wednesday morning.

        1. John,

          I’m just not sure, but my gut says these models with little or no accumulation for Boston are missing something.

          Wind is from 12 degrees, which is good for snow.

          I think Boston gets less than inland, but more than Zero.
          An inch or 2, imho.

          Will continue to monitor.

  12. I’m thinking less accumulation this go round as compared to the last storm since we aren’t coming out of brutal cold this time.

    1. BUT, it looks as though 850 MB layer won’t warm quite as rapidly
      as last time, so don’t be surprised if there isn’t a bit more this time.
      Just something to keep an eye on. 😀

    1. It really appears the models are picking up at very little within 10-15 miles of coast, as supposed to inland. We shall see

    1. You know I have to ask…how we do in Woburn you think? Also, worth moving it considering the rain and temps the next few days? Thanks.

  18. Just an observation.

    Inland winds are light, but are drifting in from the North and NNE.

    Just went calm at logan.

    However, farther to the South and out on the cape, the winds have
    turned to the EAST and are picking up.

    Will there be a strong coastal front that pushes a fair bit inland, keeping
    it rain along to coast or perhaps wet snow that won’t accumulate???

    Just wondering out loud.

  24. Weather Wiz… 2. No need to touch roof. I’m planning on a driveway scrape.
    SSK… Slushy 1/2 to 1 inch city. Busier roads may stay just wet to lightly slushy.

      1. Perhaps it is time we just throw in the towel and transition to the crappy spring weather we usually have. 🙂

  26. Tk I have a question about early next week on particular Monday? I’m seeing near 60 degrees, but want to hear what you have to say. As always thank you!!

    1. Its amazing how much the outlook has changed in 48 to 72 hrs.

      I cant remember if it was Sat night or Sun night, when the information being shown on the models led Barry Burbank to project an arctic front to move through late Sunday with temps dropping through the teens. And, 2 or 3 days ago, that was a reasonable projection.

    2. And the 12z EURO is showing 850 mb temps of 5 to 10C Monday, so, it will be mild.

      60F probably depends on amount of sunshine and whether the wind is southerly(cool) or west to southwest (much milder).

  27. Feels really cold out there…haven’t been out all day but heard it was going to be 41 or so today. Doesn’t feel close to it.

  30. 12z Euro has very little snow for tonight, not that it does very well in the short range. JJ, I think a general 1-3″ across CT with isolated 4″ amounts in the hills.

    As Tom alluded, the 12z Euro for Monday is mild with the storm passing to our north and has very little precip associated with the frontal passage Monday night for our region.

    The Thursday 3/3 storm is much more juiced and bears watching. The 12z Euro tracks it over Albany and the GFS over CT. It would not take much of a shift southeast to make this a coastal storm as opposed to an inland runner like the GFS was showing yesterday. Track is all going to depend on the positioning of the PV next week and how far south it gets.

  33. Things are not looking good for a return to a little winter next week. Even up north it’s touch-and-go at best. I can take a couple of days off to cross-country ski, but only next week, and Bretton Woods has practically nothing open now, let alone 6 days from now. While downhill skiing may be okay this year, cross-country has been abysmal. Yes, worse than 2011-2012 when I cross-country skied in mid February and the first week of March up at Bretton Woods, when I was visiting my daughter. The early March skiing was during a snowstorm – only 5 inches, but really nice.

    Well, things can change between now and next week.

  34. Logan 38 wind East at 15 mph.

    Raining in NYC and Long Island.
    Raining in Bridgeport, ct
    Snowing in Danbury, ct

  35. On a positive note, whatever frozen precip that falls will be after pm commute, and before am commute. And I’m not convinced it even accumulates on roads. We shall see.

    1. I hope so BUT what limited snow we have got it always seems to over produce or be on the higher ranges (at least where I am). Curious to see how this pans out.

        1. As much as I don’t like snow I would rather get a foot and get it over with than these pesky 1-3″ drops that come with ice and rain.

          2. The reason for this is what we have been speculating all day. Boundary layer temperature.

            Look at this chart for 9PM tonight, after it has really gotten going.

            http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrrr/18/hrrr_east-us_00845_2m_temp_10m_wnd.gif

            If I am reading this chart correctly, that is a 2M
            temperature of between 36 and 42 Degrees.
            This would most likely promote rain or mix at best, although it is “possible” it could be an
            extremely wet snow that would not accumulate.

            We’ll know when we get there.

  38. While the HRRR’s of the weather world do their back and forth thing, I have made no changes to the forecast at this time.

    Heading out for a while but I shall be checking in mobile and then back in the “office” a.k.a. my favorite room in the house. 😀

  40. It has begun snowing here in Manchester, CT. Not at a high rate, but we shall see how long it will stick around before it moves to rain. . .

    1. I have a brother that lives in Manchester. I used to love stopping at The Whole Donut on my way to visit him. I know it changed to something else since the last time I was down there.

      1. LOL, our office is right down the road from there. It is now called King Donuts but the donuts are great – way better than DD. Ken, you should pick some up for us on the way in tomorrow 🙂

        1. Tk that’s pretty cool. Small world. Mark, if accumulation is 3+ inches on my way in, I will pick up some doughnuts

  41. 3PM obs from Hartford and Bradley indicate Overcast.

    Windsor Locks, Bradley International Airport, CT
    (KBDL) 41.93806N 72.6825W
    2 Day History

    Overcast
    40.0 °F
    Last Updated: Feb 23 2016, 2:51 pm EST
    Tue, 23 Feb 2016 14:51:00 -0500
    Weather: Overcast
    Temperature: 40.0 °F (4.4 °C)
    Dewpoint: 23.0 °F (-5.0 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 51 %
    Wind: East at 9.2 MPH (8 KT)
    Wind Chill: 34 F (1 C)
    Visibility: 10.00 miles
    MSL Pressure: 1027.8 mb
    Altimeter: 30.35 in Hg

    Hartford, Hartford-Brainard Airport, CT
    (KHFD) 41.735N 72.65167W
    2 Day History

    Overcast
    40.0 °F
    Last Updated: Feb 23 2016, 2:53 pm EST
    Tue, 23 Feb 2016 14:53:00 -0500
    Weather: Overcast
    Temperature: 40.0 °F (4.4 °C)
    Dewpoint: 27.0 °F (-2.8 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 60 %
    Wind: East at 9.2 MPH (8 KT)
    Wind Chill: 34 F (1 C)
    Visibility: 10.00 miles
    MSL Pressure: 1027.8 mb
    Altimeter: 30.35 in Hg

    3Pm Obs from Bridgeport and New Haven indicate SNOW.

    At 2PM it was Raining at Bridgeport, so evaporative cooling brought down the temperature such that it could snow.

      1. What I posted is the official NWS observation.

        If you have one of those silly weather apps on your phone, their
        data is often NOT accurate.

  44. Weatherman… To answer your earlier question: 60 is not out of the realm of possibility for Monday next week.

      1. Temp right around there. Good that the roads are wet and not snow covered as were approaching the afternoon commute.

    1. From NWS:

      A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SNOW AND/OR ICE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE AFFECTED AREAS…BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. ANY SNOW OR ICE WOULD RESULT IN SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING…MOTORISTS NEED TO BE ESPECIALLY CAREFUL ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WHERE SLIPPERY SPOTS CAN EASILY DEVELOP.

  49. As Ken alluded to, it has been snowing in Manchester CT for the past hour or so. It was snow from the start – no rain – and we are about 10 min east of Hartford. It has not accumulated at all and roads are just wet.

    1. Shows how much I know or rather do not know. 😀

      Here is what was said about the HRRR experimental

      Experimental HRRRv2/RAPv3 – implemented at ESRL Jan (RAP)- Apr (HRRR) 2015. – significant further improvement for summer/winter storm environment, advanced physics with WRFv3.6, assimilation, improved initial conditions for HRRR. More information in graphic summary, changes shaded red. and in HRRR/RAP July 2015 presentation to NCEP . HRRRv2 physics description in Benjamin et al. 2016, A North American Hourly Assimilation and Model Forecast Cycle: The Rapid Refresh. Mon. Wea. Rev., 144, in press.
      The experimental HRRR is run by NOAA/ESRL/GSD as a real-time demonstration of advanced versions of the HRRR, ahead of the NCEP operational version..
      The HRRR uses
      a configuration of the WRF model, similar to that used for the Rapid Refresh (ARW core, Thompson cloud microphysics, RUC-Smirnova land-surface model, etc., as defined here), but without any convective parameterization.
      initialized with latest 3-d radar reflectivity partially through the 13km hourly updated model (Rapid Refresh run at ESRL/GSD). The 13km assimilation/model RAP system includes radar reflectivity assimilation via radar-DFI (digital filter initialization) technique.

  56. At 4PM EVERY single NWS reporting station in Connecticut was reporting SNOW.
    All of them, including Hartford and Bradley, Bridgeport, New Haven and Groton.

    1. I am thinking he may be incorrect.

      We shall see very soon.

      Logan temp is 37, despite East Wind ALL day.

      When the precip starts, the temp will drop to near 32 if not 33 or 34 and that is down enough for it to stick!

      TAKE IT TO THE BANK.

  59. It is snowing above Boston right now.
    Change the elevation of the radar at the Nexrad site. You can readily see, especially at elevation of 3.35 Degrees.

    1. It should fall to 30-32 in your area when the precip starts, sit there for a few hours, then rise to 33-38 overnight into the morning. It will take all day to get into the 40s tomorrow.

    1. I thought temperatures would be higher and thus snow would not be able to overcome it. From what I see, it’s just as cold at Logan as it is inland.
      If it’s snowing inland, it will snow at Logan and the temp will go down.

      I believe Boston gets an accumulation.

      We shall see.

        1. Oh he’s free to comment. He knows the rules. 🙂 But if he chooses the 5th, so be it. 🙂

          I really posted the story because I thought it was interesting. I think the system is OK, but very far from great. It needs work. But apparently, many others need work as well.

      2. It is your first challenge, Charlie. Write your opinion and then read it and post. You can do it. Hint…You can certainly not agree. Many do. But remember, like mine, it is an opinion and not fact just don’t fault anyone else

    2. Funny thing is TK that family from around the country and those who travel to other areas have no problem with our public. My son, who used it exclusively for several years, had no problem. Yes there are glitches and it needs to be upgraded but we are far from alone

      1. It’s somewhat relative. I have no real issue with the MBTA outside of the politics of it. I use to travel a lot for work – like every weekend – and Logan was hands down the worst compared to other airports except maybe JFK. Just seemed like every other airport was setup so intuitively and was clean.

        1. Oddly my sister in law who is a flight attendant for delta says Logan is the easiest airport. One big loop. But you may mean using public. Logan express is amazing.

          One thing Charlie always said was the hours of the T need to be extended and I completely agree.

  68. Temp has been holding steady at 38, precip is having a tough time getting up here, tk any thoughts on this.

    1. A lot of dry air to overcome first. This delays the onset by about 1 hour from what I thought yesterday, but also allows the temp to drop a bit, still supporting snow for a time before the warming takes over.

  69. Harvey is saying coating to 1 inch in Boston to Providence, 1-3 north and west of 128, so we shall see

  70. Well,,, out of the 3 stations, they all have coating to 1 in Boston, when’s the last time all of them agreed. I believe tk is most bullish? Am I correct tk? Correct me if I’m wrong.

    1. Earlier today I posted 1/2 to 1 inch for Boston itself. I still have a 1-3 inch zone just inland and westward and northward, less to the southeast. Leaning toward the 1 versus the 3 at the moment.

    2. Looks like Channel 7 pulled back amounts a bit…I am now on the border of nothing to coating now…if that’s true. I garaged my cars so guessing we won’t get anything now ha.

  74. Something is off, I’m no met, but I think tk started to see something a few hours ago, that’s why he said he’s leaning to the 1 than the 3.

    1. It’s been mostly the dry air. But there’s a little axis of instability that runs west-east across central to eastern MA along which we should see some snow increasing now through 10PM.

  75. Just drove out to dedham. Snowing all the way. Started at my house around 7:15.
    Picked up as I got out here. 36

      1. You know me well…it crossed my mind haha. No had to move my other car in the garage and as I was out there it went from lazy to decent rate. Headed back to my roof with the hair dryer talk later! 🙂

    2. I don’t think it’s coming down all that heavily. Looking in your direction and my visibility is almost 5 miles. 🙂

      1. Well yeah I didn’t mean pouring down…it went from lazy to consistent I guess. Not building up but was sticking to car.

  77. Well I can assure you it’s coming down
    Pretty good out here in dedham. Ground all covered. On way home won’t post till 11:30 to 12

  79. Switched onto TWC’s coverage of tornadoes/severe weather.

    “Major tornadic cell coming ashore” is their headline for a cell near Pensacola, FL

  81. It’s 36 in boston now and projected to be at 37 not long from now . So this is telling me it’s a wet snow with very little if anything sticking at all. This is what JR was alluding to.

  82. Tom, watching it too. Tornado chasers. I hardly think this is the right thing to say , but it is pretty cool watching it. I will say I pray no one gets hurt or worse…

  83. In Dedham now, all roads r wet, just flurries here at legacy place. Radar showing snow moving north, light coating on grassy surfaces/car tops. Tried measuring, but it was .1 or .2, so I’ll just say coating. Truck is saying 35-36 degrees.

  84. This whole snow event is going POOF. What a joke. What else is new?

    Chicago Med and Chicago Fire and news. 😀

  86. 30F in Coventry CT with 1.1″ of new snow and everything is covered. Roads a little slushy but not too bad. Snow has lightened up considerably.

  87. If you think about it, most of our snow events all over achieved in some form or fashion this winter. We were due for an underachiever.

  90. Absolutely nothing here in Burlington. Just saw a few flurries at most. Snow showers looking real isolated now on radar.

  93. The difference between air temp and dew point temp still quite large in many areas. It’s clear to see what’s going on here. Dry air is annihilating the precipitation so far.

  94. On to the next snow chance if there is one. Between now and that remote possibility it looks like more rain with the lows tracking way west or to our north and oscillating temperatures.

    I am surprised this year that we’ve had: a. so few clippers – really none that have impacted us in a meaningful way; and b. so few systems that have hugged the coast or been very neat the coast but just inland. I expected that pattern, which would have given us coastal dwellers accumulating snow followed by mix and rain, but the interior and north mostly snow.

    1. The theme of the Winter was going to be systems that missed more than hit, and a lot of non-phasing.

    1. Yes it does. It’s not like this was ever going to be a big event, but it’s just being destroyed by poorly-modeled dry air.

      Good news: Beneficial rain from the next part.
      Bad news: Potentially damaging wind gusts.

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