Friday Forecast

118 Comments

7:27AM

Very short update today, not only because I was recovering from a minor bug, but also due to a computer crash. I guess it had a minor bug too. 😉

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 26-MARCH 1)…
Basically no changes to the previous blog. The chill is back today into Saturday, a warm-up for Sunday and Monday as February comes to an end, and a chill-off to start March.
TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs in the 30s. Wind NW 15-25 MPH and gusty. Wind chill in the 20s.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 10s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill below 10 at times.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows around 30. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs in the 50s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Lows in the 40s. Highs around 60.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 2-6)…
Low pressure passes northwest of the region March 3-4 with some rain expected. Another system approaches from the west by March 6 with rain/mix possible.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 7-11)…
Unsettled early period and again later in the period (rain, mix, or snow) as temperatures trend to near to below normal.

118 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  5. Good morning again and than you tk.
    Hope you are feeling better.
    I did not see a lot of positive vibes
    Cocerning snow chances.
    Sad news
    Are we done or do you still hold out hope?

    Tx

  9. Hope you feel better soon, TK. Take care of yourself. Thanks for the forecast.

    Well, every model run is different, and the latest are now showing rain up north next week. So, I can kiss my trip up to Bretton Woods goodbye. Less than 20% of downhill trails are open (truly pathetic for the end of February), and out of a possible 105 trails not a single cross-country trail is open (as in the number zero!).

  10. Take care of yourself, TK. Thanks for everything you do.

    Sun is so bright this morning it’s starting to look like spring!

    Have a fun and restful weekend, everyone!

  12. Here’s to looking forward to Winter 2016/2017! This one looks to be on the fritz and even if it does snow in March it won’t be sticking around for long, so what’s the point? Really looking forward to the first sunny and 70 degree day and opening all the windows in the house.

  15. The 12z GFS is having some fun with next weeks system.

    Rain and mild transitioning to chilly with wet snow.

    Strung out low eventually consolidating to a stronger low SE of Cape Cod.

      1. It does look strange for what we’ve been seeing all winter.

        On the other hand, it almost fits well climate wise for the end of winter transitioning into very early spring …… something that transitions quick from warm to cold.

        I think the models are struggling with when or if -NAO occurs which will impact the track of this system.

      2. This is called a “weathertease.” Amazing inconsistency from run to run, but also week to week. I realize it’s a March pattern, and that is generally in flux. But, as TK rightly pointed out we’re in a pattern that is very hard to nail down and predict with any accuracy. This is why I still wouldn’t be totally surprised if we got a March or even April surprise this year. The cold air to our north just isn’t going away for a while – though it looks like to our west it will dissipate over time. All it takes is for one of these systems to drag down the pool of cold air to our north down to us.

        2. Nice thoughts. Keep them coming.

          We shall see. This flip flopping is getting irritating.

          Next week’s system “could” end up being the one.

          We shall see.

          I’d still lean towards the final solution being another
          inside runner or Cutter.

          1. That’s the way (inside runner) , I also still lean towards at the moment.

            NAO goes negative too late for this particular system.

            However, maybe this system ends up productive for VT and northern NH ski areas ???

            Onto the EURO 🙂

            1. Ah, wouldn’t that be nice. For selfish reasons I’m hoping for some snow up north next week. Even 5 measly inches would suffice. The bears up there must be wondering, why the heck did we hibernate this year? Forget sleeping rough in a hollowed out log with no insulation because of lack of snow cover, I’m done with this hibernation thing, says the black bear.

        1. It would be a quick burst of heavy snow on the back side of the storm with rapidly falling temps and a flash freeze. I remember a March storm about 10 years ago that did the same thing and it caused all kinds of havoc.

  16. Thanks tk, get better!!

    That sun is getting strong. Work begins with some earnest on Mon. I agree with many “bring on spring!” 🙂 enjoy!!

    1. Sun is definitely getting stronger. I also think that part of the reason we say this is because there are no leaves on the trees. This enhances the perception of brightness of an early spring sun, I think. Downside is that it can be a difficult sun to deal with when driving. I find March driving (when it’s sunny) late in the day, or even early in the morning to be really hard with sun glare.

  17. When we go back to DST on March 13, it is going to be ONE hour later that the models come out. Poor timing on the NAO going negative and snow events (hopefully) lining up. 🙁

    DST = Daylight “Stupid” Time…waaay to early.

    1. Agree, Philip. DST changes all the time. From year to year they seem to alter the date. Wasn’t it the first Sunday of March for a while? Clearly that’s no longer the case. And before that it was the end of March. Before that it was April. The fall back time changes, too. Used to be October. Now it’s November.

      2. I will repeat. They did away with DST in the mid 1970s during the energy crisis. The reason was to give folks more light during the evening hours when energy is used more to cook, etc.

        Is it a good thing? Sun didn’t rise until 8:00 am or a bit later. I have no idea but I recall that it was not looked on positively by anyone I knew – which I will clarify does not represent the whole.

        http://www.ajc.com/news/news/national/daylight-saving-time-does-it-cost-more-it-saves/nbhLb/

        1. Thanks, Vicki, for the reminder of when we got rid of DST in the mid 1970s. And thanks, Philip, for correcting me on the March DST (earliest is March 8th). For some reason I thought it was the first Sunday for a while. I was wrong about that.

        2. They’ve actually determined that energy use goes UP when moving the clocks ahead…of course, contrary to what the government touts. Typical.

          1. Which report (private and not government) you read varies. I know the company I worked for (whose clients represented 98% of electric utilities nationwide) did a rough study in the mid 1970s when we changed and there was minimal savings. Need for light in the darkest months of the year tended offset the additional light in the evening. That said, changing times can also take a toll on a person although I have not looked into the numbers. One thing I do know is that the numbers cannot be run by state but must be run nationally.

  19. 12z CMC still has a cutter for next week but then wants to whack us with a potent coastal storm on 3/5-3/6. Would be rain to snow in much of SNE and an all out blizzard for Maine.

    Beyond that, the 12z CMC and GFS must not being seeing the -NAO as both are an inferno near the end of their runs, starting early to middle of the second week of March.

  20. Personally I love the spring ahead, but don’t like the fall back. So I guess you can’t spring ahead without falling back, springing ahead is just something to look forward too for me.

  21. European weeklies. After the 7th, spring.
    Check out Brett Anderson’s March outlook on accuweather. Interesting.

  22. Another fact regarding DST is that auto accident rates go up significantly the first week. It is likely due to that one hour less sleep.

    1. Interesting, Philip. Thank you. I wonder if it would have an impact on the other end in the dark months when kids are standing at the bus stops in the dark.

  23. re: Model runs
    Blah, blah, blah.

    Euro is Crappy.

    personally, I still think we are DONE with SNOW.

    We shall see. 😀

    1. 5 to 7th is the best chance All three models have something in that time frame, forming to the south of the area.

  24. Today very much reminds me of Monday April 5, 1982…deep blue skies, brisk wind and chilly. Most of us here knows what happened the next day. 🙂

  25. 12z Euro is close to something big on the 5th – big ocean storm just offshore – and again on the 7th with another coastal forming just offshore. Agree with Matt that the period of the 5th-7th is the timeframe to watch.

    Beyond the 8th, looking warm in the long range on the GFS, CMC, and Euro.

    1. Yup, Could be the last Hurrah.
      And the way things have gone this year, likely will not happen.

      We shall see. There is time for things to be whipped into shape.

    1. Agreed. 60 plus is great in spring (when we very often don’t get days in the 60s!! – often bounces around from the 40s/50s to 80s with little in between), but not in winter. I like my seasons seasonal. Too much to ask, I know. This is New England after all.

  28. The winter haters are rejoicing. The winter lovers are not. Hopefully the pendulum will swing in favor of the snow lovers next winter.

      2. Triple H is a four letter word when you add “hate” to it, and I rarely use the word hate, but I do reserve it for the sweat and brain fog producer.

    2. May I say that those who love all weather are just smiling….all of the time. Come on over to our side. It is a happy place to be 😉

  29. I think were due for a hot summer. Past two summers we have gotten off easy in terms of heat and humidity. I do believe there will be more thunderstorm days than last year.
    As I said the other day it would be something if the severe weather outbreak we had this month is the biggest of the year.

  30. Ocean temps have begun rising, Ocean has been 40 degrees for the last 7 days or so, now 41 degrees. I believe 40 degrees was the lowest it got this year. Is this normal?

    3. The ocean water temps stayed above normal this season by quite a bit. Dave is correct. And some areas will easily reach 70 this Summer. Always pay attention to currents though, because they can cause the “unexpected” if you are only paying attention to weather itself.

  32. IMO, there is nothing wrong with DST, but I think it should not begin until the first weekend after the Vernal Equinox. Its ending time should not be until at earliest, the first weekend after the Autumnal Equinox.

    2. I know the way they did this many years ago wouldn’t have made any difference in the weather we received, but will a later fall back, and earlier spring ahead, it makes the winter feel just a little bit shorter. I do respect your thoughts, Just my opinion. 😉

  33. It is interesting to see how the idea of DST is used in other countries. For example:

    “British Summer Time was first established by the Summer Time Act 1916, after a campaign by builder William Willett. His original proposal was to move the clocks forward by 80 minutes, in 20-minute weekly steps on Sundays in April and by the reverse procedure in September. In 1916 BST began on 21 May and ended on 1 October. Willett never got to see his idea implemented as he died in early 1915.”

    And then:
    “In 1940, during the Second World War, the clocks in Britain were not put back by an hour at the end of Summer Time. In subsequent years, clocks continued to be advanced by one hour each spring and put back by an hour each autumn until July 1945. During these summers, therefore, Britain was two hours ahead of GMT and operating on British Double Summer Time (BDST). The clocks were brought back in line with GMT at the end of summer in 1945. In 1947, due to severe fuel shortages, clocks were advanced by one hour on two occasions during the spring, and put back by one hour on two occasions during the autumn, meaning that Britain was back on BDST during that summer.”

    1. Thank you. With Mac’s family in Europe we used to have to know who did and didn’t recognize dst. But that was years ago.

      1. Not me…we’ve come this far why snow on the parade now? 🙂 I am not even taking any model seriously until Tuesday or so.

    1. From what I see, it better happen before March 7th-8th, after that it’s a blow torch, but what do I know, things can change I guess. 🙂

      1. The ensembles are not quite as warm, and the Euro Weeklies have been suspect. They showed some serious cold for late February which has not materialized.

      1. I hear you TK and I’ll openly admit I have a limited ability to predict anything. I’m old school and not educated in this but have the simplistic mindset that says the trend is your friend (or not) and stick with the pattern until it hits you like a brick to the face and goes the other way. Not to mention, time is not on our side. Sure we could get one of those once in 50 or 100 year storms (April Fools…) but I’ve seen a few of those already and I’m 44. Hey, I hope I’m wrong but I know when to get off a blackjack table when the dealer gets hot.

  37. JR says we are tied for 2nd warmest winter with 2011-2012 at 37.2 avg. warmest was 2001-2002 at 37.9. Daughter thinks it may have been April vacation 2002 when we had the heat wave.

    1. Thanks, Vicki.

      April 2002 was quite warm, as was April 2012. We’ll see about this year. Given how poorly some of the longer range models have been doing in recent weeks (how inconsistent as well) I’m skeptical about claims of a warm April and May. The Euro weeklies, for example, have often been quite wrong all winter.

      Our weather pattern has been so spectacularly progressive (this weekend is a prime example), with lows and highs zipping by and seemingly crisscrossing each other’s paths in no time it would not surprise me to see a change in this pattern, with less progression in spring and the possibility of successive highs crossing to our west and north giving us a stable pattern of fair weather without much variability. Alternatively, a less favorable pattern could be introduced with cutoff lows or even retrograding lows from the Maritimes.

  38. It’s funny how suddenly models that have been doing anything but getting the medium range are suddenly correct because they show winter to be over?

    Meteorology, not modelology. Same mistake every time. 😀

    1. With the limited knowledge I have, I was kinda wondering if that were the case. ❄️❄️❄️⛄️⛄️⛄️⛄️

  39. 0Z GFS back to more of an inside runner, however, 0Z CMC has a monster
    around 3/5 or so with about 20 inches of snow around these parts. Sure and remember
    I am Santa Claus. Wonder what the Euro will say? Hint INSIDE RUNNER!

    Let up not. We shall see next week. Something is up for sure. Night all.
    Until tomorrow. 😀

    1. I’m guessing it will show an offshore system. Atmosphere looks like it wants to block up briefly… A precursor to mid month.

  40. It’s slow, but the NAO’s trend is neutral to negative into mid March and the MJO is going to be hanging around phases 8 & 1 which are snow phases for the Northeast.

    The forecast for “winter over” and full-on spring at that time are premature and risky.

  41. 0z Euro has a monster ocean storm next weekend as well…3/5-3/6. Just misses us but grazes the Cape and islands. Big high pressure set up to our north and cold air in place. Something definitely is brewing in that timeframe.

  42. Morning All!

    Going to tap the trees today and get the sap flowing. Did it a few years ago, and while it’s certainly not cost effective, it was liquid gold.

    Enjoy!

  43. Quite a bit of variability in the models a week out.

    Not so much for mid week next week.

    It still looks like something is up. Cold high to our North and moisture to the South.
    Could it happen? We’ll find out.

    Then the GFS has a Gulf system aimed at us, but that is 16 days out and we know
    what happens with those. 😀

    1. I saw that….that looked like it was going to produce big time around 3/15. If only the GFS had an hour 408….

      1. My only concern with that is the marginal cold up this way.
        And it could still be an insider. LOooooooong way off.

  44. 6z GFS strings out the midweek storm and passes it right over us resulting in a rain to accumulating snow situation. It also has the huge ocean storm the CMC and Euro are depicting for the weekend, but it is well out to sea. Much colder look in the long range on this run as well.

    1. It may be the most interesting set up of the entire Winter.
      With out luck it will not pan out, but there is something there for sure. 😀

  45. Today’s 1st Accuweather trivia Quiz.

    Catatumbo Lightning is recognized as the most intense , predictable and frequent lightning. Where does it occur?

    A. Zamboagna City, Philippines
    B. Brahmaputra Valley, India
    C. Kifuka, Democratic Republic of Congo
    D. Lake Maracaibo, Venezuela

    I’m sure most of you have the answer memorized. Answer later today.

    1. Thanks LongShot. That one is impossible unless one already knows it.

      The language to me sounds like from an African Tribe, therefore I will go with
      C.

  46. Today’s 2nd Accuweather trivia Quiz.

    What is considered to be the driest place on earth?

    A. Atacama Desert, Chile
    B. Death Valley, California
    C. Luxor, Egypt
    D. McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica

    Answer later today.

  47. Good morning!
    Slept in this morning .. which means 8AM instead of 7AM. 😉
    Feeling better. Going to update now then will move quiz and answers over to the new post when it’s up. Stay tuned…

  50. I like Brett Anderson at Accuweather. He’s generally a no hype person, offers fine explanations of weather. But (and this is a major caveat) he is over-reliant on the Euro weeklies and long-range predictions. It’s as if they’re his bible. They’re often off by a wide margin. TK mentioned the fact that they missed on the predictions for this week and weekend. I think that now they might have it wrong proclaiming an early demise of winter. Sure, winter is ending. Sun is brighter. But, there’s plenty of very cold air close by. It’s been more or less locked up there in southern Quebec. Maybe it’ll stay locked up there and then go away. But, chances are we will get some of it our way and once this interacts with coastal lows March can unleash its fury, only to succumb to the inevitable by April.

  51. I really think after the 1st week of March winter is over for all intent and purposes. I do believe March is going to come in with under averaged snowfall, and I also believe we could reach 70 degrees by April 1st. Enjoy the weekend!!

    1. If you are studying the patterns, you may want to delay that by a week or 2. The turn-around will probably be significant once we get beyond that, however.

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