Saturday Forecast

69 Comments

9:35AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 27-MARCH 2)…
High pressure retreats today but leaves lingering cold from the polar air mass that it delivered yesterday. A warm front arrives tonight with cloudiness but no precipitation, and brings a milder air mass in from the west for Sunday. Its parent low will travel eastward passing north of southern New England Monday while dragging a cold front through, but this particular front does not have much cold air behind it as it has traveled over a milder portion of the US and is not coming from colder sources further north. Eventually somewhat cooler air will sink down from Canada and this boundary will remain fairly close once it passes, coming back up into the region as a wavy frontal system by Tuesday and Wednesday, with more cloudiness and eventually some wet weather. At the tail end of this unsettled weather, there may be a risk of rain ending as snow as colder air arrives more quickly, but this is several days away and uncertain.
TODAY: Sunshine most of day. Clouds from the west late. Highs in the upper 30s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts late.
TONIGHT: Considerable cloudiness. Lows in the lower 30s before midnight then rising through the 30s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers through midday, then becoming mostly sunny. Highs in the lower to middle 50s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to WNW.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Lows in the upper 20s to middle 30s. Highs in the 40s.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with rain possibly ending as snow followed by late-day clearing. Temperatures fall 40s to 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 3-7)…
Fair and cold March 3. A broad low pressure trough carrying a couple of disturbances will bring chances for unsettled weather at times March 4-7 along with temperatures near to slightly below normal. Too early to determine any kind of rain/mix/snow locations and intensity and timing.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 8-12)…
Risk of unsettled weather early and again late period, with fair weather in between. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

69 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  3. REPOST

    Longshot says:
    February 27, 2016 at 8:25 AM

    Today’s 1st Accuweather trivia Quiz.

    Catatumbo Lightning is recognized as the most intense , predictable and frequent lightning. Where does it occur?

    A. Zamboagna City, Philippines
    B. Brahmaputra Valley, India
    C. Kifuka, Democratic Republic of Congo
    D. Lake Maracaibo, Venezuela

    I’m sure most of you have the answer memorized. Answer later today.

    1. REPOST

      JpDave says:
      February 27, 2016 at 8:30 AM (Edit)

      Thanks LongShot. That one is impossible unless one already knows it.

      The language to me sounds like from an African Tribe, therefore I will go with
      C.

  4. REPOST

    Longshot says:
    February 27, 2016 at 8:27 AM

    Today’s 2nd Accuweather trivia Quiz.

    What is considered to be the driest place on earth?

    A. Atacama Desert, Chile
    B. Death Valley, California
    C. Luxor, Egypt
    D. McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica

    Answer later today.

    1. REPOST

      JpDave says:
      February 27, 2016 at 8:34 AM

      Trick Question. We all want to say Death Valley, but I’d wager it is
      Antarctica.

      I’m going with D.

      JimmyJames says:
      February 27, 2016 at 8:59 AM

      Hopefully we could cash in on a snow potential.
      First trivia question B
      Second trivia question C

      Tom says:
      February 27, 2016 at 9:09 AM

      C and A ???

  5. REPOST

    Joshua says:
    February 27, 2016 at 9:10 AM

    I like Brett Anderson at Accuweather. He’s generally a no hype person, offers fine explanations of weather. But (and this is a major caveat) he is over-reliant on the Euro weeklies and long-range predictions. It’s as if they’re his bible. They’re often off by a wide margin. TK mentioned the fact that they missed on the predictions for this week and weekend. I think that now they might have it wrong proclaiming an early demise of winter. Sure, winter is ending. Sun is brighter. But, there’s plenty of very cold air close by. It’s been more or less locked up there in southern Quebec. Maybe it’ll stay locked up there and then go away. But, chances are we will get some of it our way and once this interacts with coastal lows March can unleash its fury, only to succumb to the inevitable by April.

    1. The certainties are the seasonal earth-related things, as you mentioned. You cannot stop time, therefore the higher sun angle and approach of spring is inevitable, which of course goes without saying. What they tend to jump on is the early declaration of impossibilities of sensible weather events during a time when historically we know they occur, and often without much notice, due to model deficiencies. This, again, is where meteorology comes into play. I think it’s a repeating error that computer output is relied on a little too much.

      1. A little too much? By some way too much, but others not so much.
        The really skilled mets use experience and gut based on what they
        observe with the overall pattern and observations.

        Skilled like TK, Eric, Barry and Harvey. Still, mistakes can and are made. But we know who to go to for reliable information.

        1. Well even I was very tempted to buy into the super cold shot for tomorrow as depicted on the ECMWF about a week ago (some other models had it too). It was kind of a universal model error probably brought on by lack of sampling of energy that would become the wave of low pressure that passes north of us Monday. Had that not been able to develop, we’d probably have gotten a short but very sharp shot of Arctic air with temps in the teens tomorrow afternoon. But the wave of low pressure is significant enough at all levels to keep the jet stream north, and never allow it to come down, so the cold air slides by to the north by some distance and even behind the “cold front” it stays quite a bit above normal for the last day of February. Relatively minor model error when you look at the entire hemisphere, yet the results are a 40 degree temperature difference from what might have been and what will be.

  6. Thank you for the Saturday update. Anxiously awaiting the 12Z runs for any possible
    changes or hints of what is to come.

    In the meantime, working on some other things. 😀

    1. I think it will take these models a little time to sort things out still. I have low confidence in all of them.

  7. Looks like SST temps have yet to fall below 40 degrees except near shore waters. Looks like ocean temps are running five to eight degrees above last year at this time. Perhaps we have reached seasonal lowest ocean temps? Sun getting higher. Great Lake 12 % frozen fascinating winter. I’m down here near PVD airport all of the ice is gone down here from local lakes and ponds and coves on Narragansett Bay. Love the blog have a great day all.

    1. SSTs will probably just waver around for a couple to a few more weeks before starting an erratic rise.

      Still love the comparison from last Winter to this. Here we are on February 27 and I look out at my snowless yard and neighborhood (even the piles are gone except the larger parking lot ones which have withered) and then pull up a photo from last year at this time… 😀

  9. 12z GFS want to give accumulating snow to southern VA and North Carolina for next weekend but nothing up here as of now.

  11. Euro has shift East and South for the 3/2,3/3 system. Close but not close enough. Perhaps close enough to salvage snow for many up North Ski Resorts.

    Waiting for a frame or 2 for final results.

  14. Latest runs look a tad more winter-like, even in the near term (from Tuesday on). Maybe I shouldn’t cancel my trip north after all. I’ll wait a couple of days. Watch what’ll happen. I’ll go up there and get stuck for a week in snowstorm after snowstorm. Wouldn’t that be something. Of course, the chances are remote. But, the White Mountains received their most significant snowfall (and it was a tremendous amount, folks) in late February, early March 1969. Very different kind of winter, I realize. But, March is often a very snowy time in central and northern New England.

    3. Early Spring skiing, Joshua. I have fond memories of Cranmore in March. My advice……go and get stranded. Then you can post here and I’ll do my usually living vicariously ;).

  15. Now I hope this happens not only because I am a snow lover but the people who declared winter is over if that a snowstorm materializes will be quieted down some.
    I does snow in March.

    2. Definitely. March is very much a winter month, in my opinion. But, it is one that has springlike features, which include the sun angle, greater chance at days in the 50s and 60s, and of course greater chance of tornadoes, although mostly down south and across the plains.

      We’ll see how it shapes up. Surprises are almost always a feature of March weather, sort of like March madness.

  16. March is a fickle month. Could feel like spring for a few days then bam you get a good size snow event. April is more fickle. I have seen everything from accumulating snow to heat wave.

  17. Thank you tk 🙂

    I’m finding on my customers lawns, many over wintered broadleaf weeds, the ground couldn’t have been frozen much if at all for any length of time. It’s a bit unusual, but not unheard of. We have officially begun, but not gung ho (so to speak). Only 3 days this upcoming week. Then everyone begins March 7th. Of course it’s always weather permitting with rain or snow etc. but that’s the plan. As someone has said above, what a difference a year makes. 🙂

    Enjoy the rest of your weekend folks

    1. Good luck, Charlie. Yes, quite a big difference between last year and this year. The ground was very soft and completely unfrozen until January, and then it froze in spurts but also thawed as you noted. I can imagine it being an easier year for you in this regard.

    3. Well as you know, even a storm of several to many inches in March doesn’t hang around for much time, so any weather-related delays you experience would be brief. Despite the activity potential, the long-term pattern is still fairly dry.

  18. Was talking to neighbors from next street today. They have been in their home longer than the 37 years we have been here. We mentioned the storms the other night and the husband lit up ….as most of us do….and said he’d been right in the window watching. Little did I know. I gave him the blog name and hope he will join is after he has a chance to get to know us by reading a bit. I assured him weather knowledge is not needed….I am a perfect example. But it is a great place to learn and to share a passion for weather

      1. It is Matt. And I love it. I cannot say thank you often enough to TK for giving us this forum and bringing us all together

    1. Much better thanks. I’m undertaking a great organizing project here in the “office”. 😀

      Rearranging it soon for more efficiency. After that more progression comes with the blog and FB page. 😀

      2. Wonderful news that you are feeling better. And exciting news that we can anticipate progression…..although I’m not completely sure what it is, I know it’ll be fun

  22. I am not saying who to vote for on Super Tuesday, it is not my place, but I am begging you, please look at what is at stake environmentally and the USA Global Image. Many countries are all ready planning on Banning the USA Government (mainly the president depending on who it is) from going into their country. The UN is even thinking of suspending the USA from its meetings. So please Just think and not let the small catchy phrases get you drawn in. There is a reason the Northern European countries are the happiest in the world.

  23. Answer to Today’s 1st Accuweather Trivia Quiz.

    Catatumbo Lightning is recognized as the most intense , predictable and frequent lightning. Where does it occur?

    A. Zamboagna City, Philippines
    B. Brahmaputra Valley, India
    C. Kifuka, Democratic Republic of Congo
    D. Lake Maracaibo, Venezuela

    The correct answer is D. I thought it was India.

  24. Answer to Today’s 2nd Accuweather trivia Quiz.

    What is considered to be the driest place on earth?

    A. Atacama Desert, Chile
    B. Death Valley, California
    C. Luxor, Egypt
    D. McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica

    The correct answer is D.

  25. We’ve gotten 23.4 inches of now here so far this winter, I think last year we had 23.4 inches on the ground at this time. Just nuts!!!

  26. Talk about a huge difference in weather tomorrow. Boston may get to 55F, while parts of northern Maine barely make it to 20F. Tomorrow night snow will envelop that region and produce 12-24 inches just over the border in Canada. This was the storm that the Euro model (and GFS to a degree) had nailing most of New England on last Monday’s run. A potent storm for sure, but several hundred miles north.

  28. Next week, All models show the first system mid week, setting up the second system to be colder, they all have their own ways of it forming, but All show two systems. GFS Wednesday then Thursday… Euro Storm wednesday, then Storm Friday/Saturday but south.
    Canadian: Wednesday into thursday , then second storm forms for friday evening through Saturday Evening.

  29. @capecodweather

    overnight run of the euro still bullish with late week storm chances. certainly remains a period/threat to monitor.

  30. 6z GFS shows no storm next weekend. It does show a rain to snow situation mid week storm but very little accumulation

      1. It looks like a large system on the latest EURO run so wondering if this will be like that storm on the 8th of February where even though it was way offshore because of its size it was able to throw back accumulating snow into SNE.

  32. Couple bullseye areas with that 0z run parts of the Mid Atlantic and southeastern New England. It gives all of accumulating snow but JPDave said if it comes closer watch out.

  34. Updated. To be honest, I really didn’t change much of anything. The next couple days are easy and fairly quiet. Beyond that, I’m not sure, so can’t really detail anything.

Comments are closed.