Tuesday Forecast

155 Comments

7:27AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 1-5)…
March has arrived! And our weather pattern is…pretty much the same, quick-moving systems and lots of change. Timing is always an issue in a pattern like this, and the madness that can be the March weather pattern will be in full swing during the first days of the month, without question. This starts with a windy/colder morning today compared to the relative warmth of the final day of February under 24 hours prior. A warm front moving in tonight will send cloudiness in advance of itself late today then some precipitation, starting as snow/sleet/freezing rain in some interior areas before rain in all locations as the temperature goes up overnight. We won’t be in the warm air mass very long though, as the low pressure parenting it is also parenting its sibling cold front, which will charge through the region during the middle of the day Wednesday with a final band of rain, followed by clearing and falling temperatures. This will be a significant punch of cold air that will be with us through late week. High pressure will bring fair weather Thursday. Low pressure passing to the south on Friday brings a risk of snow. Though the bulk of this system is likely to pass south of the region, it will be a close enough pass to watch closely as a northward shift would bring more significant snow into the region.
TODAY: Sunshine dominates into afternoon then gives way to clouds from the west later in the day. Highs in the lower to middle 40s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty in the morning, diminishing and shifting to S then SE during the afternoon.
TONIGHT: Thickening overcast. Periods of snow/sleet/freezing rain interior MA and southern NH, especially near and west of I-495, with mix/rain elsewhere. Lows in the upper 20s to middle 30s early, mildest coast, then rising through the 30s into the 40s overnight. Wind light E to SE early, shifting to S and increasing to 10-20 MPH overnight.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy through midday with periods of rain. Clearing west to east during the afternoon. Highs upper 40s to middle 50s through midday then falling to the 30s during the afternoon. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 10s. Highs around 30.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Lows in the 20s. Highs around 30.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 6-10)…
Next low pressure system brings a risk of light snow/mix March 6 and a follow up disturbance may bring a few rain/snow showers March 7-8 with temperatures moderating from below to near normal. Fair weather March 9-10 with temperatures moderating to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 11-15)…
Temperatures above normal during this time with some unsettled weather around the middle to end of the period.

155 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  5. Roar!

    (That’s March coming in like a lion.)

    Thanks, TK.
    Happy March and Met Spring to all!

      1. Well, technically it is as close as Rte. 128, not that I am concerned in the least. Just somewhat surprised it is as close to Boston as it is.

  9. I know there’s a wind threat in the warm sector with the potential for the 850 mb jet to mix down to the surface.

    Does anyone know if there are any signs of instability tomorrow in SE New England ?????

    I can’t help but notice that an intensifying storm is tracking JUST to our northwest as opposed to say over Chicago. I would think this close pass should have good dynamics overhead tomorrow.

    1. Tom,

      I have been watching those. Up to now, nothing worth mentioning.
      However, the 0Z Euro run has some severe parameters elevated some
      from previous runs. Not to the levels of last event, but elevated just the same.

      Total Totals is between 44 and 50, which indicates thunderstorms likely
      The Sweat index is between 250 and 300, which means slight chance
      of severe.

      So perhaps it is getting more interesting.

      Will check the convective NAM and WRF.

      1. Need to wait for later runs. Previous runs, not impressive.
        Some thunder indicated, but nothing severe. Cape is
        non-exisitent. Li to -2 in southern sections.

  11. re: Storm for Friday

    at 10AM Friday as per the fresh 12Z NAM

    Surface

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2016030112&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=075

    500 mb

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2016030112&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=075

    looks promising, doesn’t it?
    NOT so fast. Take a look at the 200mb chart

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2016030112&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=075

    So that is the KILLER.

    500MB wants to steer storm NE, however, 200MB winds are blowing straight
    East to West and will control the entire 500 mb flow.

    Result: instead of the storm moving NE up the coast, it movess ENE out to sea.

    UNLESS that 200mb flow changes, this thing does NOT have a chance in hell
    of getting up here.

    Any precip is from remnant Primary system and/or some ocean effect snow.

    I posted this much earlier with 6Z NAM reasults. This is all 12Z

    1. Here it is 7PM Friday, certainly somewhat close, but no cigar

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2016030112&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=084

      Here is the snow map

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016030112&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

      Notice the little 3+ inch blip from Boston’s SW neighnorhoods SW almost
      to RI. I would presume that is from Ocean Effect snow enhancement of
      primary storm remnants?

  14. Thankfully no repeat of what we saw last week.
    If those CAPE and Lift Index Values were higher last week when we had that severe weather it would have been a lot worse.

  15. NWS Wind discussion

    S-WINDS. AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH MORNING. WIND CONSENSUS
    AT 1-2 KFT AGL 50 TO 60 MPH. INVERSION IN PLACE BUT AS WE SAW WITH
    NEAR SIMILAR SYSTEMS OF THE PAST ACCOMPANYING MODERATE TO HEAVY
    RAINFALL WAS ABLE TO MIX-DOWN WINDS TO THE SURFACE. THINKING 40 TO
    50 MPH GUSTS AT THE SURFACE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH
    TERRAIN AND S/SE COASTAL NEW ENGLAND AS CIPS ANALOGS SUGGEST.
    INSIDE RUNNER LOW UNDERGOING MATURATION AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW PER
    ENSEMBLES IS WITHIN THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF A HIGH ANOMALY.
    CONSIDERABLE PRESSURE FALLS YIELD A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OF
    70-80 MPH AT H925. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF A WIND ADVISORY EVENT
    WITH POCKETS OF HIGH WIND POSSIBLE. MAY BE ABLE TO HANDLE WITH
    SHORT-FUSED HEADLINES. THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT AS ROBUST AS THE
    LATE FEBRUARY CONVECTION WE HAD A WEEK AGO…THERE IS STILL THE
    POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS
    EVALUATE. ALSO CONCERN FOR WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES AFTER COLD
    FRONTAL PASSAGE…SEE BELOW.

      1. I am referring to his Monthly outlook that we discussed here yesterday…snow for the eastern U.S., etc.

  17. Hmmm

    12Z GFS spreads snow into area from Friday’s storm, even though it is well off shore.
    Looks more synoptic in our area than did the NAM.

    Waiting for another frame or 2 for snow map. Looks like 2-4, 3-5 ish in our area
    just from the Northern edge/remnant primary/ocean effect.

  18. There are lot of tweets on twitter that strongly disagree with him. Will see what happens.

    1. We shall see. Cohen presents a compelling arguments.
      I’d like to see what the counter arguments are.

  21. That system for Friday is dangerously close to becoming a High Impact snow event.

    We need to closely monitor this one.

    It will be interesting to see if the CMC stays the course or backs down.

    And of course, what will the Euro say? Will it show a more Northerly track?
    OR stick to the totally OTS solution.

    We’ll know in a few hours

      1. Could be. That High is really cold. Check out the 850 mb temps.

        According the NWS the delta (difference from ocean surface temp and 850MP) should be at least 13 Degrees C.

        Ocean is about 4.5 C and 850 projected to be “about” -12 C
        or thereabouts. That would be a Delta of at least 16.5 C
        IDEAL for Ocean Effect snow.

        Best I can tell, progged to have NE wind.

        Add it all up, and it sure looks like some ocean effect snow, even
        though NWS has NOT mentioned it just yet.

        TK do you concur?

        Or is this snow all synoptic?

        Thanks

          1. I am happy you added “on that run”.
            And really that was all we were discussing, that
            particular run.

            But it does set the stage for some possible
            ocean snow even if the bulk of the synoptic snow
            stays off shore, does it not? Tx

  23. JP – I understand your question now. I was wondering about Dr. Cohen’s outlook based on TK’s updated forecast of course.

    TK’s forecasts are the only ones that count for me in the end AFAIC. 😀

    1. Tk did not address that issue in the forecast as his final outlook period was
      for 3/11-3/15. Dr. Cohen concedes that next week will be mild and explained why. It is after that. He did not give specific dates, but said Mid-March into
      April.

      So, I do not believe there is any conflict at this time.

      Last night TK said that upon further review Dr. Cohen might be correct.

      So, I guess we’ll find out soon enough. 😀

  24. Thank you tk 🙂 I have no idea what dr kohen is looking at. It has consistently for weeks showing a blow torch after the 7th. I’m even beginning to hear it more and more on social media, news, and look attune models. Just my 2 cents

    1. It may LOOK that way on the models.

      But, you have to factor in frozen Hudson Bay, the 40F Atlantic Ocean and the snow covered eastern Canada.

      Now, I buy into an overall above average pattern after March 7th or so.

      But, there is no way the long range models are picking up on subtle little things, such as back door cold fronts or break away bubbles out of SE Canada that will have brief cold shots.

      All of those cold air sources I listed above will help provide cold, dense air that at times will return to New England on occasion through early May.

      1. 4th paragraph …. should be, “break away bubbles OF HIGH PRESSURE out of SE Canada that will have brief cold shots”

        1. The Models Charlie is talking about don’t take into
          account the effects of sudden stratospheric warming events. Dr. Cohen is an expert on said events and the
          effect they have on sensible weather.

          I invite Charlie to read his blog. It is intense reading, but
          very very educational and informative.

          1. Of course, it still does not mean he is correct.
            I will say he has a good track record. He is often correct, but at times he can be incorrect as
            well.

            What he says makes sense to me.

            Will it happen? Who knows.
            We shall find out.

    2. As Dave suggests, you’d be much better off reading his blog first. If you look at a couple models and listen to social media you are only allowing yourself a fraction of the info you need to make a decision about the future behavior of the atmosphere, and then adding uncertainty to that depending on what social media sources you are putting faith into.

        1. Certainly has made a correction.

          It moved more off shore, while the GFS moved a
          tad farther North.

          Now the question is: Is there wiggle room to have
          it come farther North?

          Examining the upper flow, that would appear unlikely, but stranger things have happened in weather.

      2. As I said last night I think we get one more plowable snow event . Tk what I meant last night is I don’t think personally the flip switches to a cold and snowy pattern . I believe the deeper we get into March the harder it becomes probably even more harder for a day event again in my opinion only nobody said cold and snowy this is a hunch / guess in my opinion only . Winter is on its last leg regardless if we get a cold shot or a snow event it’s time is running out. And again I am well aware that March is very unpredictable.

  29. Thanks JP for sharing Dr. Cohen’s blog. I would hope that Eric reads it as well based on his “winter over” attitude from yesterday. 😉

  30. First, the AO this winter hadn’t correlated to nothing. Second, Cohen has an agenda for his forecast to be correct with his whole Siberian snow cover bullcrap IMO, im not falling for it. 🙂

  31. Charlie, Dr. Cohen may indeed be wrong, but AO is an important factor to consider. It is not necessarily decisive, but certainly important.

    For people who like spring – and I certainly acknowledge that the majority of people do prefer it to winter – we may enter spring early this year after a mostly ho-hum winter. However, there are factors which Tom alluded to above, TK has talked about, and Dr. Cohen, too, which could reintroduce doses of late winter this month.

    It’s worth repeating that not far from us – only a couple of hundred miles – a snowstorm is brewing and will give parts of northern New England a foot of snow. The pool of very cold air over eastern Canada is hardly moving over the next few weeks, and with a very significant snow cover (there could be historic snowpack in places in southern Quebec following tonight’s storm), don’t be surprised if SNE gets hit by winter wallops.

    Found these classic B&W vintage photos of Boston in the snow. Includes several from March 1956.

    https://weather.com/travel/news/vintage-photos-boston-winter

    1. Thanks for sharing Joshua. It appears that kids (and adults) were very creative in those days with snow. Nowadays you rarely see a simple snowman. It is all about video games, texting, tweeting, etc. etc.

      1. I enjoy his enthusiasm and really makes it so a lay person could understand what is going on.

        1. I sent a few of his that were posted here to a friend who mentioned he does exactly what you have said, JJ, but at the same time is entertaining. I like his approach a lot.

  33. I got a good portion of the way through Dr Cohen’s blog. It takes reading and rereading on my part. But it makes sense. I do not believe for one second. he posts with a bias. I get a bit tired of hearing that. He may be wrong but he certainly has backed his view with knowledge. We all know weather is anything but a certainty. We also know March is a fickle lady.

    All that said….we seem to be forgetting one very important factor. Daughter #1 suggested last November that we figure a way to keep the cold air north of us. Mac said he’d work on it. Now mac would be working on a bias….however, I am not too quick to discount his influence. 🙂

    1. “March is a fickle lady.” Yes, indeed, Vicki. Please note, men are equally fickle. It’s just that they express their fickleness differently.

      And Mac has mostly kept his promise to keep the cold air north of us.

      1. Men fickle? I will have to think about that 😉 And yes, he has. He certainly has his daughter’s and niece convinced. But then there may be a bias there also!

      2. I worked in currency during that cutover weekend…they timed it right with Y2k. Awesome.

    2. Wondering that myself, but I think if it was anything spectacular or major change from the last run, you would hear about it

      3. I took a peek at the 12Z run on instant weather maps and it looks like no change and maybe even further OTS than 0Z run

        1. Are you and JpDave looking at the same thing? You say further OTS and he says closer HA.

  36. It will be interesting as to how the evening TV Mets handle the end of the week compared to yesterday and this morning.

    1. If they are smart they’ll continue to say that it’s a close enough pass to watch closely but odds favor no sizeable storm.

      There is one met, who I will not reveal, that 2 nights ago stated that “Yesterday (Saturday) the track of this was close enough to give the Cape 6 to 9 inches on Friday.” There is a whole, whole lot wrong with that statement, but since I’d be stating the obvious and repeating myself, I’ll just leave it at that.

  37. Charles, I’d like to correct you on something, regarding the AO. You’re missing some important facts in trying to back up your opinion, but I will touch upon this one, and that is the AO itself. The AO actually played a significant role in the weather pattern in Canada AND the northern US this Winter. The reason we were not in a pattern that locked in cold for more than a couple days at a time was the fact that while the AO went negative, the NAO remained positive. We’ve seen this pattern many times, but this year, combined with a particularly strong El Nino, the result was exactly what we saw, and frankly not unexpected at all. I know some forecasts were different, but many were very reasonably accurate. One place I missed was that the Southeast was milder than I expected, though our friend Scott touched upon this at one point, saying the Southeast ridge would counteract some of the typical El Nino chill down that way. That is applied meteorology, and that’s exactly what Dr. Cohen uses. No, he’s not always right, and no I don’t always agree with him. In fact this season I did not agree with his assessment of the temperature completely, as he went colder than I (and others) believed it may turn out. He had decent reasoning, but there was a factor that was overwhelming, and that was El Nino. There was question about this because of the location of the El Nino. We had not seen one that strong, in that particular location, so there was some unknowns going into the winter. One place Dr. Cohen was not clear of was the SSW event and its timing. He clearly stated that even though he expected it to occur, that he was fully aware it may not. That’s the uncertainty of meteorology. It’s something that we as scientists face constantly and we welcome the challenge. The problem is, many times our opinions are misunderstood by the public as bias or ignorance. While I agree there are some in the field that are questionable, the vast majority of us are just trying to do the best we can in a high demand area. And some of us are continually battling the ignorance that runs rampant out there, due in large part to unqualified information cluttering up a medium (the internet) that is clearly not being maximized for its beneficial potential in this area of science.

    1. Thank you for the well said explanation tk 🙂

      We shall see how it will all pans out. I think we have a little bit of snow Friday, but with temps in the mid to upper 30’s, and not much moisture, most receive an inch or less. You?

      1. I don’t think we see much at all. Even ocean-enhancement will probably not amount to that much. The storm would have to come much closer and put its heavy precip. shield over the area and I don’t see it happening as it stands now.

            1. One of the singers was on a Disney Chanel movie called Austin and Allie . It’s s kids band not bad music . I’ll be here till around 10. Had great seats till all the screaming girls stand up lol. I’m getting old.

    2. Excellent and informative explanation and commentary, TK. Thank you for taking the time to put it all together. In addition to the explanation, it also helped me to understand more fully the blog (which I finished reading) by Dr. Cohen.

      psstttt….I believe I even saw the angel factor accounted for between the lines 😉

    1. It’s going to be tough to get prolonged warmth given this is March 1 and there is going to be a whole lot of high pressure in Canada in the coming few weeks…

  39. I’m still seeing evidence of weak to moderate blocking and a shift to colder around mid March. Ensembles for GFS are starting to pick up on this.

  40. Total February snowfall @ Logan = 15.0″ (+4″)

    Somewhat surprising given El Niño. Even January snowfall @ Logan was 9.5″ (-3.5″).

    1. Not surprising actually. El Nino winters such as this one tend to be more back-loaded with snow, in a relative sense. If you recall, my forecast in November for the Winter included near to above normal snow for February after 2 months of below normal snow leading up to it.

      *NOTE: Had to post under this name while my WHW account is being worked on.

  41. I never thought that my comments about Dr. Cohen would cause such a stir.
    I do hope it was a learning opportunity for some. 😀

    18Z NAM and GFS not so bullish for Friday. Oh well. It is the 18Z Run afterall.

    Disappointed to hear Tk’s thoughts on not much happening Friday, including
    ocean enhancement. Here’s hoping something happens, but if not so be it.

  43. Thoughts on Friday’s system from NWS:

    THE RESPONSIBLE SHORTWAVE WILL JUST BE MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST TONIGHT WHERE IT WILL BE BETTER SAMPLED BY LAND-BASED OBSERVATION NETWORK SO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AND STILL CANT RULE OUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FOR SNE. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE BETTER RESOLVED BY THE 12Z WED GUIDANCE AT WHICH TIME WE SHOULD HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE ON EXPECTED OUTCOMES

    So we wait and see what develops.

    1. I see the NWS making this comment quite a bit but most times it does not make much of a difference in model outcome. Usually when we are less than three days from the event like this, the models are starting to lock in and you do not see them shifting significantly after the piece of energy comes ashore from the Pacific.

    1. Great picture. Thanks for sharing.

      While the higher elevations have indeed done pretty well this year, most of Europe – including places where it’s generally cold and snowy like Moscow – have been virtually snow-free. Exceptions to the rule include Iceland where it’s been colder than normal and much snowier than normal for several years running, and parts of Scandinavia.

    1. Love his enthusiasm. He does weather for Jay Peak. They’ve gotten plenty of snow in recent weeks. Snow should be falling further south from tonight’s system. My guess is Bretton Woods picks up 4 inches or so. Of course, the Laurentides have been hit this year with snow (what else is new?), with reports of over 300 inches in the higher elevations. Not unusual, but certainly more than New England resorts.

      1. You may be able to get in some cross country skiing this weekend if you travel far enough north…..or take the ferry to Nantucket 🙂

    1. Important stretch for this team. Tonight’s the `easy’ game. It gets really hard after tonight with games against Chicago, Washington, and Tampa Bay. Real test for a team (B’s) that have played very poorly on defense. To me, their play on defense is a surprise given Claude’s emphasis on a system and defense. Just as surprisingly, the B’s have turned into an offensive-minded team at times. Not the Bruins I know.

  48. 12z Euro really is a blow torch for middle of next week with 60 degree temps as far north as Montreal.

    http://i.imgur.com/UYeaHyV.jpg

    Might hit 70 somewhere if the 850mb temps the Euro is advertising come to fruition. That said, the other guidance is not quite as warm.

    2. Some mets calling for 70 degree temps inland next week. If the winds are not that strong, then coastal areas will be much cooler with sea breeze

      1. Curious as to which particular mets called for specific temps 8 days in advance and their reasoning…

          1. TK, I know you like sources so here is JR’s thoughts:

            http://www.whdh.com/story/31359487/lions-tigers-lambsoh-my

            Very last paragraph of his short blog: “A warming trend gets under way this weekend and the potential for real spring warmth is on the table for next week…..60s & 70s (cooler coast).

            The madness has begun…. ”

            You’ll have to scroll through EFs twitter, it’s a pain finding things on Twitter.

  50. 0z NAM delivers an inch or two across eastern MA and RI Friday, not much at all over CT and central MA.

    1. 49% of the republican vote. Its crazy. While on the democratic side, a little less upset set but still upset that Clinton won all of these states. 🙁 🙁

    1. Yup, a back off for sure.

      Now the last chance for a change are the 12Z runs. Not change in those,
      stick a fork in it.

      And I agree with your earlier comment. doesn’t matter if energy is on shore or not or so it seems.

      1. It actually does make a difference most of the time. NWS mentioned why and that is the case.

  55. Hmmm
    6z gfs far more robust for friday.
    NAM about the same.
    So, the 12z runs this morning
    Should reveal something much closer
    To the actual outcome. So as tk stated
    Getting the short wave sampled over land appears to have made a difference thus time around at least with the gfs.
    The 0z euro and cmc keep it totally off shore.
    What will they do with the better sampled short wave? Ah that is the question and we will know in several hours.

  56. Thanks TK !

    What a mild morning !!

    Look at that period between about 3/12 and 3/17 ….

    So much for the continuous warmth. The GFS gives a back door cold front, a small low to the south …. can you saw 30s, raw and yuck ??? …….. The EURO at day 10 shows cold approaching from south central Canada.

    Now, the EURO also has +10 to +15C around March 10th and 11th. The 70F mark has a chance in this timeframe, I think, if nothing drastically changes.

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