Wednesday Forecast

126 Comments

7:26AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 2-6)…
Today will be a good example of the changing pattern as just within the 12 hours starting with the time of this post we’ll go from very mild and wet weather to windy, clear, and cold that feels like mid Winter, all thanks to a low pressure area moving across southeastern Canada and dragging a strong cold front through the region. The cold that arrives to end the day will be around for a couple days, and as stated yesterday, we’ll have fair weather due to high pressure Thursday and a chance of snow due to low pressure passing south of the region Friday. It still remains to be seen just how important (or unimportant) the snow event will be as this will depend on the exact track of the low pressure center. Still leaning toward a less important event but a greater risk of accumulating snow in southern and some eastern areas of southern New England. More to come on this. High pressure brings fair weather Saturday. A weakening low pressure area and a northeast flow combine to bring more cloudiness and possibly a few mix/snow showers Sunday.
TODAY: Cloudy through midday with periods of rain, some heavy, with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Clearing west to east during the afternoon. Highs upper 40s to middle 50s through midday then falling to the 30s during the afternoon. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows upper 10s to lower 20s. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill 10 or below at times.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs upper 20s to lower 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH, diminishing during the day.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Lows in the 20s. Highs around 30.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of mix/snow showers. Lows in the 20s. Highs around 40.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 7-11)…
Temperatures warm to above to much above normal with mostly fair weather during this period. Will have to keep an eye out for sneaky cold air from the north.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 12-16)…
Temperatures above to near normal as a few systems bring changeable weather.

126 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  4. Thank you, TK.

    Is there a volatility index in meteorology? A measure of changeability over short periods of time. In my life I’ve not encountered a winter like this one with as much volatility. I’m guessing that this winter would rank in the top 5 in terms of volatility thus far. Of course, March is known for it. And, if I’m reading the models correctly I see LOTS more volatility this month, along with all the other fun stuff we get such as 65-70F day teasers that lull you into thinking spring’s sprung, followed by periods of raw days in the 30s and 40s that make you want to never leave your bed, snow, rain, drizzle, fog, wind, calm, and everything in between.

  5. Thank you, TK.

    Is there a time frame on Friday? We have a dumpster scheduled to be delivered but it will take up a good portion of our driveway which will put cars on the street. We cannot have cars on the street if there is a storm. Thank you!

    1. Vicki, Strictly going by the GFS, somewhere in the 1PM to 4PM time frame.
      Difficult to tell. Looking at the NAM reflectivity, some light snow could
      start around 7AM-10AM or there abouts. Just hard to say at the moment.
      Perhaps the 12Z runs will give a clearer picture.

  6. As I said earlier this morning, the 6Z Gfs is far more robust, giving Boston South something like 5-8 inches of snow Friday. Here is the map:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016030206&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=102

    Both the Euro and CMC were last run PRIOR to the short wave coming on shore, so we’ll have to see what they say with the 12Z run. This could get interesting, OR the gfs
    could be the Outlier. We just won’t know until a little later today. 😀

  7. This morning Ch. 5 has the most “agressive” snowman with a general area of light snow for all of SNE and a few inches just southeast of Boston to the Cape with Ch. 7 the least (no map) with any snow restricted to the Cape only.

    My gut says a northward trend overall.

    2. Philip, I would lean towards agreeing with you, BUT I will wait until
      the 12Z runs to make that determination.

      The Northward shift of the GFS could be meaningful. I just want to make
      sure it is not an outlier.

      Both the NAM and GFS had over land sampling of the short wave for
      the 6Z runs. ONLY the GFS moved the system Northward, while the
      NAM held course to the South with only a very small amount of snow.

      IF Both the NAM and GFS moved North, I’d be on board.
      AND the NAM is almost in its wheelhouse for performance.

      So again, the 12Z runs will be very telling on this event.

  10. NAM coming out now.
    My only comment so far is that I see very subtle changes in the 200 mb chart.
    Ever so slight hint of more curvature, but it is slight. We shall see IF it translates
    to a more Northward track.

    1. The earth has a “rumbly in its tumbly”. (Winnie the Pooh reference for those who don’t know it.)

  15. Well quite an interesting sky this morning. It was very quiet and very dark. Then wind picked up as the dark clouds moved east. Now we have wind with some breaks in the clouds. No rain with this but I sure thought we were going to have a downpour.

      1. Thank you – it was GREAT to watch. I love the feel of today with the crisp wind. I also fully enjoyed the sound of the rain and the wind prior to the front.

  16. Joshua… In case you missed my reply. I agree with the volatility of this winter’s pattern which actually fits in with what we expected, but for volatility I think it will be hard to beat some of the 1970s winters, and particularly the month of January 1978.

  17. Tweet from an amateur weather person so don’t know if this is true at all. Was tweeted about an hour ago from a gentlemen named Anthony Siciliano.
    Newest GFS Ensemble SLP Mean & Spread..Storm stronger..still many members N & now right over 40/70

    1. Must be 6Z ensembles as I am sure 12Z ensembles are not out yet.

      12Z operational Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay off shore, but still brings some
      snow to us.

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2016030212&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=069

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016030212&time=48&var=ASNOWI&hour=072

      So here we have it. The 12Z was a CORRECTION from the piece of crap
      6Z run and now is more in line with the NAM and I STRONGLY suspect that
      both the Euro and the CMC are fairly similar.

      In short, there AIN’T going to be a big snow storm, but rather a paltry 1-3
      inches, IF even that.

      And that you can probably take to the bank!

  19. TK, thank you for reminding me of January 1978. I do remember it well. It was a volatile month. Between the major storm mid-month (~18 inches where I lived at the time) and the February 6th blizzard we had several 60 plus days as I recall, but also a couple of flash freezes (also earlier in the month). My memory is not as sharp as it used to be, but I do have a weird weather memory. If you were to name me a day (winters, preferably; for example, December 9, 2005) in the past 15 years I could probably tell you roughly what happened that day. I’m not always right, but often close. Too bad it’s not a lucrative ability.

    2. I just remember a storm prior to the BIG that month where
      there was a major ice storm “just” South and West of the City. N&W West
      there was plenty of snow. At my house in JP we had snow with considerable sleet mixed in for a storm total of 6 or 7 inches. It was overnight so there may have been a period where it was all sleet. Was that stuff ever heavy to
      remove and I mean heavy. Anyway Driving not to far to the South West,
      I could notice a rapid transition to ice covered trees. It was actually pretty
      impressive to see. It was an ice storm all the way down to Parts of RI.

  22. Question – it seems some mets. will give the temp. outside and then the “real feel”. Didn’t that used to be called the “wind chill”? I never hear the term “wind chill” anymore. Any reasons for this?

    1. “Real Feel” is a phrase owned by AccuWeather. You’ll only hear it from them or affiliates.

  24. We had what almost looked like a summer cold frontal passage around 11:45am today.

    No rain or anything ………… but a ribbon of very, very dark clouds that, when they passed overhead, were accompanied by very gusty westerly winds.

  25. Well, it’s official.

    12Z Euro is a Swing and a Miss, looking very much like the 0Z euro, like
    the on land sampling of the short wave had no effect whatsover.

    Euro does NOT show any ocean effect snow either.

    Beginning to look dry which is fine with me since we have dinner plans
    Friday evenening.

      1. Thanks Matt for putting that together.

        Incredible Model Consensus there.

        Safe to say SEE YA to that baby.

        I don’t think there will be any ocean effect either, other than
        a few possible flurries. 😀

        1. Told you like a week ago or so RIP winter 2016! Lol

          There’s always next year OS.

          By the way, the reason why it didn’t snow for real this year was because I bought a plow. That’s all the weather model you need.

            1. You should have seen what I did to my lawn even with markers. Never plowed before. I’m a total hack.

          2. Yes you did.
            Did you read Dr. Cohen’s blog?

            If so, I guess you disagree or otherwise chose
            to ignore????

              1. Ok, fair enough.

                At this point, I honestly hope you are correct. If next week pans out as mild as forecast, then I sure as hell don’t want to be thrust back into Winter after that.

  27. So I guess all that is remaining is Dr. Cohen’s thoughts about possible snow for second half of this month into early April. In the meantime a blowtorch for much of next week if no backdoor fronts?

    2. Several way above normal days temperature-wise next week, but the cold that retreats well to our north looks to move somewhat southward by mid-month in moderated form. Will it remain locked to our north? Possibly, in which case RIP, winter. It should be noted that what we’re seeing today is quite special weather-wise. Not unique. It’s certainly happened before. But, this morning seeing temps in the 50s in Boston and in the teens only 300-350 miles to our north along with blizzard conditions is interesting, especially because this pattern of rather extreme differences has persisted for quite some time.

      1. Don’t buy too much into ridging automatically meaning warmth here at this time of year. You still need the right surface wind.

  29. Tom, I did my morning run later this morning than usual – at around 10am. I noticed the rather beautiful cloud formations to our west. You mentioned this above. I should have taken a picture and sent it to meteorology 101 – Question 1: identify all the cloud types in this photograph. I believe that almost all cloud types were represented, from cirrus to very dark nimbus and everything in between.

  30. Next week’s Spring preview, while certainly appearing, is going to be pinched on both ends: That is, delayed in getting here by 12-24 hours, and ended early by high pressure to the north. Remember, especially heading into this time of year, don’t make a forecast just based on the 500mb chart. It’s what goes on at the surface that counts in the end.

    1. So can I assume that Dr. Cohen’s analysis towards the end of the month is still in play at this point TK?

      1. Absolutely. Non-met’s look at charts and get influenced by them. Met’s look at the big picture, beyond the charts, and study the actual atmosphere. Models are NOT the atmosphere. They are computer-programmed simulations of the atmosphere in a time-series that have somehow become some kind of gospel for some unknown reason.

  33. March 17th marks the 1st day with more daylight than nighttime, why is this 4 days before spring?

    1. Earths atmosphere bends the sunlight just a bit, so you see the sun ever so slightly longer than if there was no atmosphere. So, we see the sun about an extra 8 minutes each day then if there was no atmosphere. That’s why there’s 12hr, 8 min of daylight on the equinox.

    2. Before they changed DST, March 17 was always the first day the sun would shine into my mom’s kitchen window in the evening. Before that it was behind the western part of the house until reaching the horizon. 🙂

  34. So, Boston’s most reasonable expectation of snowfall is 3″ and Marshfield is 4″ ????? For Friday ????? Really ???? I have to go back to the NWS and see if I’m reading that correctly.

    1. I’m with you. WHERE are they getting this? All reliable models
      suggest virtually nothing.

      Are they expecting an Ocean Effect BLITZ of some sort?

    1. Ok here an excerpt from their latest discussion.
      Hint INVERTED TROUGH. Didn’t see that one coming.

      FRI AND FRI NIGHT…
      CONTINUING TO MONITOR COASTAL STORM PROJECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY ABOUT 100NM SOUTH OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. AM A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT THIS TRACK IN THAT CLUSTERING IN THE ENSEMBLES IS MAINLY NW OF THE MEANS. ALTHOUGH WILL NOT INCLUDE THE GFS THIS RUN AS AN OUTLIER IT
      BARES WATCHING. THE OTHER ISSUE AT HAND WILL BE HOW FOR NORTH THE PRECIP SHIELD AND HEAVIER BANDING /AS THIS IS COLD ENOUGH TO BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT/. GOOD BLOCKING SETUP WITH SLIGHT SHIFT IN NAO/AO TOWARD NEGATIVE. WITH THE ARCTIC WAVE LAGGING…AND THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF N OF THE MAIN LOW TRACK…COULD SEE SIMILAR SETUP
      TO EARLY FEB SYSTEM IN WHICH HEAVIER BANDS WERE N OF THE PROGS. INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPMENT LIKELY DUE TO THIS LAG/UPPER LVL WAVE SETUP. THUS…STILL TOO EARLY TO TALK EXACT NUMBERS…BUT FEEL THAT S COASTAL REGIONS WILL SEE PLOWABLE AMOUNTS OF SNOW WHILE AREAS FURTHER N WILL SEE A GRADIENT…BUT AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE POSSIBLE. UPPING POPS TO CATEGORICAL IN THESE AREAS WITH A GRADIENT IN POPS FURTHER N. BUFKIT SUPPORTS DECENT LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGIME AS FAR NW AS ORANGE/FITCHBURG…BUT IT IS
      ENTIRELY POSSIBLE SOME AREAS OF NW SRN NEW ENGLAND SEE LITTLE TO NO SNOWFALL.

      1. I agree with them. Great early forecast and reasoning, IMO. This is why all along although my leaning has been to keep the bulk to the south I have stated and maintained that we have to watch it closely.

        1. Ok, thanks to both JpDave and TK. So maybe Friday will be more interesting than I was thinking anyway. …..

        2. Where do you see an inverted Trough. The next clipper
          appears to be too far away for that inverted trough
          to form. I am having trouble piecing this one together
          and apparently, I am not the only one.

          Can you possibly help us???

          Is ocean effect in play as well? OR not?

          It does NOT appear that much of the synoptic snow
          from this storm makes it here, Unless as they say,
          they expect the snow shield to be farther North than
          modeled. That is some serious meteorology if that comes to be and I will have a new Found RESPECT
          for our NWS Office.

          Thank you.

      2. He’s gotta make a forecast. He doesn’t have enough time on air to go through all that NWS explains in their discussion. What he said very well may be the most likely scenario, but the NWS has to discuss the possibilities in their product.

    1. I have this funny feeling that that accumulation map will be decreased by this time tomorrow.

  37. As I leave the office for the night I am at a total loss.
    At lunch I told my wife no snow so there should be no problems with
    our dinner plans for Friday evening.

    Now the NWS is saying this stuff???? What gives.

    I see nothing on the charts to support it.

    So OBVIOUSLY there is something going on that I can’t see and many of us
    cannot see.

    TK we need some help. Thanks

  38. REMINDER:
    The fact that the NWS issued the watch is not a bad move…AT ALL. There are reasons why these things are termed as they are, and defined as they are. But for some reason, not sure if it’s the fault of media or just general ignorance, as soon as a watch is issued it’s automatically taken as a warning, and the assumption is the worst case scenario is imminent. THIS HAS TO STOP. And not by way of the NWS changing their warning system and forecast methods. It stops by education and learning. There is a Winter Storm Watch up for Cape Cod. This means that the criteria that satisfy this are POSSIBLE. “POSSIBLE” … Look up the definition. This is weather forecasting, which basically amounts to educated guessing. I back NWS 100% here. And if it appears as we get closer to the event, they lower the watch to either an advisory or nothing at all, as conditions warrant. Even if that happens, this would NOT be considered a false alarm. It would be arrived at by them going about this the way they should. Gather data, apply meteorology, make a forecast. Gather data, apply meteorology, update forecast. Etc.

      1. Wise ass!!
        BTW I’m going to be cruising up the hill in about 1/2 hour or so to pick up a couple passengers for a trip to Su Chang’s in Peabody and then to an undisclosed store in Salem NH. 😉 I’ll beep as I pass by!

        1. Ha ok I will await the beep. Let me know how that place is…I am a Tiki Island guy myself.

    2. All good points and I agree …..

      They do however, if you look at many other forecasts, seem more aggressive comparatively. I would have thought that why they have under most likely would have been found under maximum. I mean, their maximum is very very impressive. But, it is also true that they know their meteorology quite well !!!!

      1. The REMINDER was not for you, specifically, but just the fact they put out that watch made me think of it. 🙂

        And it’s true, they may end up having to cancel it, but the jury’s out!

  39. Actually, Harvey is the most aggressive with decent accumulating snow for Boston via ocean effect and still a few inches for much of SE MA from the storm itself, if I understand the latter correctly.

    Eric = little or nothing for Boston, cooler at coast next week.

    JR = Coating – 1″ for Boston and no more northward movement expected, if anything further south.

    1. Regarding Harvey, I am now wondering if he is thinking somewhat on par with NWS to some extent? Hmmm….

        2. He didn’t give a specific amount for Boston but definitely accumulating via “ocean effect”. I got the impression to whiten the ground at the very least.

          2. If that above map is the latest, does not say much
            for snow in Boston. Some light ocean effect
            flurries and occasional very light snow, perhaps dusting the ground is all I see from Harvey anyway.

  40. Tk re: 4km Nam

    Ok, I am missing something and we have a learning opportunity.
    You said to look carefully. I see something, but it is connecting the off shore system with
    the High. I thought that an inverted trough usually connects 2 areas of low pressure.

    So what you are saying is that we have a trough of low pressure emanating from the off shore low reaching up to the High to the North and kind of denting it in with lower
    pressure.

    Is that it?

    Many thanks for your help.

    Ahh the beauty of this blog. The things we can learn that others totally miss out on.

    1. An inverted trough does not necessarily connect 2 lows. It is a trough that extends in some northward component from a low.

  44. Harvey updated his snow map for 11 pm cast…D – 2″ for Boston, but probably more likely just a dusting. 1-3″/2-4″ further S/E.

  45. I don’t think we see much more than a flurry friday, and for all intent and purposes, winter is over.

    1. GFS snow

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016030306/gfs_asnow_neus_10.png

      NAM 12km

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016030306/namconus_asnow_neus_17.png

      NAM 4km

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016030306/nam4km_asnow_neus_17.png

      RGEM

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2016030306/rgem_asnow_neus_16.png

      So there you go. Decide for yourself.
      Unless there is a Surprise, not much shaking. 😀

  48. Some NWS graphics

    https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xlf1/v/t1.0-9/12804806_958972657530439_1881464817303557104_n.jpg?oh=c2b4025f19b3ad7019cbedd433e59472&oe=575D5755

    https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfp1/v/t1.0-9/12809558_958972694197102_238044237339976465_n.jpg?oh=08ff4b583ab09bf49c065d1c08f762ec&oe=5755921A

    https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xaf1/v/t1.0-9/12321411_958972734197098_2793992695668142484_n.jpg?oh=a8ee4c445f2b3f297dfe75389c9be15a&oe=5759E305

    https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xft1/v/t1.0-9/12795514_958972650863773_2775685428627946555_n.jpg?oh=e4675381ad64607725cc4dffc5714110&oe=57574E57

    https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xlf1/v/t1.0-9/12804806_958972657530439_1881464817303557104_n.jpg?oh=c2b4025f19b3ad7019cbedd433e59472&oe=575D5755

    1. I know we all had a discussion yesterday after the 4pm updated NWS package came out, with our attention going to the most likely snowfall amounts prediction.

      With everything we are seeing, my opinion is that this mornings most likely amounts prediction has a better chance of verifying than yesterday afternoon’s most likely amounts prediction. Certainly, a higher accumulation is possible, but I just think what they have this morning, taking everything into account, seems more reasonable.

  49. I may be blowing smoke up my kista, but It looks like the experimental HRRR
    wants to bring tomorrow’s system a tad closer. Will monitor. I’m probably off
    my rocker.

  50. Been leaning very light for the Friday system, despite the fact I supported NWS’s decision. And yes they should still leave the watch up until midday today before doing anything with it, given that a slight shift north changes EVERYTHING. However, I’m going to stay with the light (as in very little) theme on my now-official call, posted on an updated blog. See you there!

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