Friday Forecast

160 Comments

7:24AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 4-8)…
A large and deepening storm passes well south of New England today and is only close enough to put some northern-fringe snow over Cape Cod and the Islands with minor accumulation there. Wind will be a bigger issue in that area. In addition, an ocean flow will put some snow showers into eastern coastal areas of NH an MA at times, with minor accumulation also possible there in some locations. A small high pressure area brings fair weather but not quite as cold Saturday, and a weakening low pressure combines with a northeasterly air flow for more cloudiness and maybe a few snow showers Sunday. High pressure building over the region both at the surface and aloft will ignite a significant warm up early next week.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. A period of snow South Coast and Cape Cod with accumulation up to 2 inches possible, and a few snow showers with minor accumulation at most eastern MA and NH seacoast locations. Highs 30-36. Wind NE 10-30 MPH, strongest Cape Cod area, including higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Snow showers possible eastern to southeastern MA evening. Lows 20-26. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs in the 30s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs in the 30s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 50s.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 9-13)…
Fair and warm March 9. Turning cooler with periods of cloudiness and some light precipitation at times March 10-13.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 14-18)…
Variable temperatures average close to normal with a few minor precipitation events during the period.

160 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

    1. Interesting they close today in the middle of the coldest spell of the month (most likely). 😉

      I’ve been hearing them for a while. Many stayed close to home this Winter.

  2. the models are showing exactly what is going to happen through at least the first part of spring. the snow cover will allow cool high pressures to form to the north of us, giving the area risks of cool shots especially after fronts and systems. Does not mean snow but keeps the threat around

    1. Indeed. We’ve been talking about this for a while now. Eastern Canada is going to load up with high pressure during the coming few weeks.

  3. Thank you tk 🙂

    March 14-18th averaging close to normal, average highs depending exactly where you are, 45-50 degrees is the average?

    1. In the neighborhood but there will be some variability. The 5 day mean should fall close to average.

  5. Good morning and thank you, TK.

    Did 7 get a new meteorologist?

    I was interested that Scott Kelly grew two inches while in space due to lack of gravity. I was even more fascinated when I heard this morning that he has already lost the two inches

  6. Thank you, TK…

    Today’s date is a command to March Forth!

    Happy Friday, weekend to all.

    Time to March Forth back to class!

  8. Good morning and thank you for the update TK.

    It is snowing above us. In fact the column is moistening and where it is not
    snowing, it will be shortly. Interesting that the first ocean band set up North
    of Boston and it was a decent one at that.

    We shall see what others, if any, come in from the ocean.

    Barry said 74 for Wednesday. I wonder IF that isn’t a tad high. 😀

    Anyone have that day as the 1st 70 degree temp?

    1. Heard on the radio that there were a bunch of accidents on 128 up around the Cape Anne area due to the snow….

    2. Ocean effect bands up this way today. The storm’s snow mainly cape today and evening. Had it in the fcst.

        1. Only if you are out of it and need it today, which applies in basically any weather. 🙂

          1. HA funny I am actually out of bread and maybe – maybe – have enough milk left to rock one good sized bowl of apple jacks.

  11. NOT snowing here at the office in Roxbury, however, the visibility is lowering, so I
    don’t think it will be too much longer. We shall see. I see a bunch of snow slowing
    moving this way from the ocean, plus it seems to be slowly filling in all around.

    1. Dusting of snow on the grass and cars here at my office in Hudson, NH. Was trying to flurry when I left the house at 8:10.

  14. Looking long-range, 2-4 weeks out – and you know I’m a skeptic when it comes to long-range, so I don’t necessarily believe the long-range forecast – I don’t see much cold, but I also see very little warmth after next week’s brief flirtation with 70F. What I see long-range is a LOT of 40s and low 50s, gray skies, raw, and rain showers. I realize this usually defines our spring with occasional teasers thrown in (like a 70F day), but it doesn’t look like fun weather ahead if this verifies.

  16. Route 93 South is closed from Exit 4 in Windham, NH to the Mass border due to multiple accidents.

  18. I was in a meeting since 10 AM WITHOUT windows. When I returned to my office
    I see that it is SNOWING here. Not sure when it started. It is very light at the moment, but it is SNOWING. 😀

    1. Loop that radar and you can clearly see that this snow is moving in from
      the ocean. 😀

      I love ocean effect snow.

  22. With Easter this year being on the last Sunday in March, it could be interesting what the landscape will look like on that day.

    Come to think of it, wasn’t Easter in March 1997?

      1. Very unlikely indeed, but we’ve had a few late March surprises in years that Palm Sunday and Easter were early, including the ones mentioned in 1956, but also March 31 in 1997 (and April 1), and the Palm Sunday storm that occurred in late March 1942 and mostly impacted the mid-Atlantic states. Notably, in all instances there had been warm stretches in March prior to the storms.

        1. It snowed heavily on Easter in 1969 (I think it was ’69) as well. That was March, too, if my memory is correct.

    2. We had a white Easter last year in Coventry, CT on April 5th, receiving about an inch of snow. It was a COLD day. We have a better than normal chance of a white Easter this year since it is so early in the season but we will need a well timed shot of cold air to make it happen.

  23. I mentioned yesterday that things might get interesting late next week as the cold high pressure pushed down from eastern Canada and the boundary between the warm and cold air sets up near or just southwest of us. The 12z GFS is now showing a nice overrunning event for that time period:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016030412&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=128

    Enough for widespread 6″+ of snow across SNE:
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2016030412&fh=198&xpos=0&ypos=171

    Nothing to get too excited about yet as that is a rather precise setup that needs to happen, but the chance of something is there and it bears watching.

    Long range GFS as well is quite active and seems to be getting colder and colder with each run. Central and northern NE at a minimum look to have some snow chances.

    1. I haven’t seen the latest GFS runs. Thanks for sharing this information. Well, I guess the message is hold off on burying winter and perhaps Dr. Cohen is vindicated after all. We shall see.

    2. Thanks Mark. About to check the Euro, although it probably isn’t that far out.
      Bet it does NOT show that event. 😀

  26. and if they don’t reach 13.8″, they break the all-time least snowiest winter for the entire snow season set in 1912-1913. Pretty amazing having grown up in that area.

  27. Off and on flurry type snow falling, some shady area coatings, been doing this since 10am.

  28. After Sunday the pattern change begins. 50+, and even 60+ degrees going into the beginning of spring. BUT we shall see. 🙂

      1. I just don’t see it, models show around 50 degrees next Thursday, Friday,Saturday etc etc

      2. Agree, it looks like a lot of 60’s and spot 70 degree readings on Wednesday and then temps crash late week and don’t get out of the 30’s/40’s Friday with snow or rain depending on what model you look at.

    1. No snow here on that run for that event, perhaps a tiny bit at the tail end. 😀
      Still cooking for the rest of the run. It showed something brewing. We shall see.

    3. It is not that far off from the GFS in that it shows a decent overrunning event. The difference is that the Euro keeps the cold air over northern NE and it doesn’t push as far south as the GFS. Definitely bears watching….

      1. I think it bears watching, but I don’t believe the cold makes it down this far, central New England i think. It’s just my thinking. It’s close but just no cigar. Again we will know I’m the next 3 weeks.

      2. To be sure. FWIW the CMC pushes the High well to the East
        before the warm moist air has a chance to over run.

      1. It won’t take many more miles to crank the snow up in Boston. Curious to see what happens the next 20 minutes

        1. It’s already cranked up here. Not that it’s a blizzard or anything close, just that the light snow intensity is up
          considerably.

  33. Looks like the synoptic snow is up to about Plymouth, while up here we are looking
    at various attempts to have an Ocean Effect event. Not really delivering though, even if it has picked up.

  34. The Euro does present an INTERESTING set up for 3/14 with COLD to the North
    and Warmth and Moisture to the South. I sure don’t know how it will PAN out, BUT
    this looks like something to watch.

    http://imgur.com/ZIVI0M4

    1. Agreed, and the long range GFS is starting to look more interesting with each run as well. The pattern is fairly active anyway you slice it. It is not going to be a boring second half of the month.

  35. Hmmm, I see the wind has come around to the North anywhere North of the
    South Shore. So is it NE above the surface?

    Yes, at 925 MB it is coming in briskly from the East and NorthEast, so that
    is what must be keeping this snow going.

  36. Now it’s even snowing a bit harder. Just check vis.
    It’s “about” 1.25 miles. You know it’s snowing that’s for sure. 😀

  37. On radar, snow appears to be collapsing to the South fairly rapidly.
    Don’t know if that is a trend or temporary.

  38. Don’t forget about Dr. Cohen’s thoughts regarding the 2nd half of the month. Easter could have a “Christmas” type landscape. Who knows? 😉

    1. It’s GOING FAST and soon will be DONE, unless there is some sort
      of regeneration. I do not think so. I think dry air is shutting it down.

      Well it was fun while it lasted.

  41. We don’t know what will happen the coming weeks with any degree of certainty. Maybe once this cold interlude leaves town and it warms up it’ll stay springlike with no more cold or snow chances until December. Then again, maybe we get into a stormy period in which snow chances are a real possibility and cold (especially at night) returns. My question to all WHW members is this: How often do we get an early spring in SNE? This was declared emphatically by serious mets several days ago. In my estimate, early spring in Boston is akin to an oxymoron. 2012 is a definite exception. I can’t recall, however, ever getting another early spring in my lifetime. March in my memory is almost always a roller coaster ride with ups and downs, and the downs often include cold, snow, mix, cold rain. April also displays a lot of volatility, but usually lacks much cold (below 32F), snow, and mix. May has fewer mood swings and no real cold or snow, but the downer days are never out of the picture. I remember so many May days in the 40s, raw, and plain awful, that it sours my spring experience because by then I really want it to be consistently nice and warm. Even early June is often a mixed bag. Remember last year when on June 1 and 2 it didn’t get out of the 40s. This explains my skepticism about declarations in early March of an early spring in Boston or winter, RIP.

    1. March 1998 was pretty warm. Hit 89 in Boston the end of the month.
      I couldn’t tell you what happened after that. Perhaps it was one anomalous
      Day and the rest was brutal. I just don’t remember. 😀

        2. 😀 as is the norm for that time of year.

          Remember in high school at baseball practice after school.
          It was well into the 80s and oh so nice. All of sudden
          big gust of wind and in moments it was in the 40s!
          Ouch! That was aweful!

        3. And, prior to that warm set of days it snowed 5 inches in Brookline as I recall. Man, did that snow melt fast. I remember sledding with my daughter at Larz Anderson one day and eating ice cream out at Walden Pond a couple of days later in what felt like blazing heat (89, as you said, TK).

    2. My guess is rarely a consistently mild spring in Boston or anywhere in eastern New England.

      But, after 30 or 40 miles inland, it’s probably been a different world many springs.

      1. True, true, true.

        Mark, perhaps you could chime in, as you’re from Albany originally; 120 miles inland. While Albany doesn’t exactly get an earlier spring than Boston its weather is more consistently warm at a certain point with obviously no sea breeze, etc …

        1. And …. while you see it in the data, I think Hartford has a much milder daytime high than Logan in Spring, it’s still deceptive. So say Hartford hits 70F and Logan gets to 60F. At least in Hartford, it’s still 70F at 4pm, meanwhile at Logan, after hitting 60F at noon, it’s like 44F at 4pm with a seabreeze.

  42. I briefly got up out of my sick bed to pick up my daughter from school. Grassy areas facing north have a decent coating of wet, pasty snow. Areas exposed to the bright light of the day are nearly bare. A light, fine snow continues to fall.

    1. So sorry you are not feeling well, Tom. A least you could have a nice white yard to look out at. Or maybe that would just mean shoveling so perhaps I should wish for birds singing. Either way. I hope you feel better very quickly.

    2. I feel for you, Tom.
      I came down with it on Tuesday with yesterday being my worst day.
      I can’t believe how fast and hard it hit me.
      Doc prescribed the z-pack for respiratory condition, most likely bronchitis.
      Be well, rest and hope you feel better soon! and I’ll be doing the same.

  43. I think the 18Z NAM missed the memo!

    It shows snow until 4AM along the MA coast.
    Unless something happens really soon, I don’t see that at all.

    1. Snowing ever so gently outside my office near South Station. When I say gently I can count the stray flakes.

    1. Thanks Joshua and Vicki. The usual flu symptoms I’m dealing with. This particular case though, my lungs are so so sore. Went to the doctor and they said my lungs sounded good and advised me to take mucinex. If I breathe in steam filled air, the soreness immediately stops. So, that’s been the one symptom this go around that’s been kind of miserable. I’m a little responsible in that I should have gotten the flu shot earlier and did not. Lesson learned !!! 🙂 🙂 🙂

      2. For what it is worth Tom, Amazon has a personal vaporizer for around 30. We got it for mac. It really helped to breath the air. It is the Vicks personal steam inhaler. I don’t know if you could get it in time to help though

  45. Large area of high pressure to the south, High pressure to south. Cold vs Warm. We are in the battle zone. When areas such as nyc is in the 70s we will be in the 40s….. Possible active pattern. storms travel to the north and south of the high pressures. Just need enough cold air from the north to give at least northern new england some late season snow.

  46. SNOWING quite hard here now with reduced visibility to about 1 mile.

    Not showing on radar? I don’t know what’s up?
    Radar crash? I dunno

    Looks gorgeous out there!!!!!

    2. I just checked their webcam, too. Weather-obsessed people think alike. Goodness, it’s cold up there. The highs this week will be about -6F. By late June the ice will have melted, and then it starts freezing over again by late October. Last year, the ice didn’t melt until July, but that was exceptional. Those people are tough. They must have skin that’s like leather.

  50. Now on radar, it looks like the ocean storm has turned a bit to the North
    and echoes are moving back in over the Cape????

  51. The snow around Boston is originating in very low levels and the radar beam is simply above it…

  53. Oh, Tom, flu is not fun, especially when your lungs function is diminished. Looks like you’re doing the right thing. Try to stay indoors because even though it’s not that cold it’s a damp cold, especially down where you live closer to the storm.

    Hope you feel better soon.

  57. For our natick and sherborn family….they are bobcat sightings in natick near the sherborn line.

  58. Hope you guys are enjoying the mood snow! It’s been partly sunny here in northern CT all afternoon, just had a few flurries this AM.

    Joshua, to answer your earlier question, the March/April weather was highly variable growing up in Upstate NY. I can remember several Easters with snow on the ground and also periods of 80 degree weather. What we don’t see up there (and usually not even here in CT) is the effect of the easterly wind off the ocean. It seems there are many days every Spring where Boston is stuck in the 40’s while Albany and Hartford are well up into the 60’s or even 70’s.

  59. For all the hours of snow I’ve had today it only amounted to 1/2 inch here so far. Some areas have had over 2 inches, but quite localized. It’s been about the ocean-effect bands from Boston north, and the storm’s synoptic snow has been mostly south of the CCC.

  60. Snowing again in Boston. My bet is that Logan sees “measurable” snowfall this evening.

    Also, I was pleased to hear Mike Wankum say that this is probably not the last snow of the season. As TK has noted that too many mets declare winter over prematurely.

    1. Going forward, after the warm-up next week, which by the way will be cut off rapidly and sharply on Thursday, we’re going to be putting a lot of high pressure in Canada and activating the Pineapple Express coming off the Pacific, so yeah, it could get interesting a time or 2 around the Northeast.

      1. Airport may get 0.1 to 0.5 inch in the 7PM hour. I think they’ll have measurable as well.

        1. Thanks TK. Yes, I was referring to the Airport mostly and not necessarily the neighborhoods.

      1. They’ll get occasional snow showers until around midnight. Small accumulations (under 2 inches total, probably under 1 inch).

        1. She’s going to bring several fun things…
          A hot summer.
          Active tropical season.
          Drought potential remaining.
          A quick cold start to Winter 2016-2017.

  63. TK РIf I understand the Pineapple Express correctly, it occurs especially during El Ni̱o.

    Am I correct on that TK?

    1. I’m going to stick with my forecast of 25-35 inches there for the season. 😉

    1. Pretty much what was expected. Most of that will melt today in the March sun despite the chill.

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