59 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

1. Thanks, TK.

   First!

2. Thank you TK

   Sunshine here. No sign of snow

3. Thank you tk 🙂

   Hearing birds chirping again

   1. I’ve heard them all Winter. They hung around.

      1. It is funny how people don’t hear them in winter even though they are there. I wake up to the cardinals every morning and more often than not when I open the blinds in my room the male is sitting in the bushes looking back at me

4. Thanks TK !

   It was a bit interesting last night in that when that ocean band occurred from about 8 to 10 pm, …….. at least in eastern Marshfield, it fell primarily as rain.

   1. Rain? Amazing!

      1. I was a bit amused at the time. Now that I look out the window, it ended as snow and there’s a feather dusting out there with small icy patches here and there on the road.

         1. I can say Tom leaving the school after 9 last night it was snowing at a good clip.

5. Good morning and thank you TK.

   Did Logan pick up any measurable snow?

   Looks like South Shore picked up a couple of inches of Ocean snow.
   Cape?

   Looking at the Euro, it “appears” that most of the expected COLD is cut off at the
   pass. Wondering if warmth mostly wins out, with occasional back door fronts
   for temporary cooling.

   Pretty much the same with the GFS.

   Beginning to look like Spring is about to arrive. We shall see.

   1. I thought I saw 0.5 inches at Logan, but please don’t hold me to that 🙂

      1. Yes and most of that fell in the 7PM hour.

         Recall this message I posted at 6:29PM…

         “Woods Hill Weather says:
         March 4, 2016 at 6:29 PM

         Airport may get 0.1 to 0.5 inch in the 7PM hour. I think they’ll have measurable as well.”

         At that time there was a small but potent area of snow showers coming toward the airport from the northeast.

         1. 🙂 🙂 well done !!!!!!!

   2. That one set of model runs does not reverse the medium range trend. The warm up is certainly coming in the first significant push Monday through Wednesday, then chopped back big time, only to return around March 12-14 before being obliterated again. The cool side of normal will win out from mid to especially late March.

      1. So winters snow and cold is over? And we will be more in the 40’s-50 degrees.

         1. It’s safe to see we’ve easily seen the coldest, since it’s going to be impossible to reach February’s depths of Valentine’s Day. Is Winter cold over? Mostly, but not completely. We’ll still have our share of March-type cold days (today, to some degree tomorrow, and a few more scattered around). Snow? You know my answer here. Climate says chances drop off but don’t disappear. We just have to watch the overall pattern and then down to day-to-day details as always. With a neutral to negative NAO and lots of high pressure in Canada later this month, you can’t dismiss anything. After that, the turn-around should be pretty solid. We will see a lot more 40s/50s and alot fewer 30s from here on. But keep in mind we’ll also make runs at 60 Tuesday and 70 Wednesday, so ups and downs are going to be part of this, as is typical for March. All in all a pretty typical late Winter / early Spring pattern seems to be coming up.

      2. I hear you. I was surprised to see the cold cut off on that
         run. But Spring usually is a battle with frequent bouts of
         warmth and cold with the warmth eventually winning out.
         problem is on occasions that doesn’t happen until July! 😀

         1. It’ll happen sooner this year! 😀

   3. I don’t see any real cold or snow after Sunday. I think it may get close, but no cigar. Central and northern New England may get a glimpse or two of winter.

      1. I thought The forecast said a few warmer days then back to cold. Very March

         1. See above. 🙂

6. Thanks TK.
   0.5 inches recorded at Logan yesterday bringing the snow total to 25.9 inches I believe.
   I was surprised Bradley International Airport in Windsor Locks recorded 0.2 inches bringing the snow total to 17.3 inches.

   1. Total snowfall to date @ Albany NY = 10.3″

      1. Part of that speaks to long term dryness. Part of it speaks to mild weather from El Nino. Part of it speaks to storm track. The split flow did them in. Storms that tracked to the west were weaker, in general, and fast-moving systems with no back-side snow. Storms that stayed to the east were too far away to give them much of anything. They were caught in no man’s land.

7. 0.9″ to go for me to win our snowfall contest. 🙂

   26.8″

8. I have a question–how much liquid was there last winter–not how much snow but how much water? How does that compare to this year?

   1. I ask because a student asked me–was this winter easier than last year because last year was so much colder or so much wetter.

      1. This Winter was much warmer overall, and far less snowy. Temperatures were well above normal in December, above normal in January, and closer to normal in February. Snow of course, below normal pretty much everywhere except maybe close to normal in some areas closer to the South Coast. But the vast majority of the region had virtually no snow in December, very little in January, and slightly above normal in February, but without sustained cold and certainly nothing remotely close to the snow barrage of the February before.

         Last Winter started out mild and wet in December (which was a bit of an anomaly because we had been in a longer term dry pattern). January of course was colder but drier overall until the snow came at month’s end. And February, sustained cold – way below normal – and incredible snow but ironically near normal precipitation, because the snowstorms were all dry fluff storms with low water content. No comparison to what we had this Winter even with that very short lived super arctic air factored in.

         1. Thanks!

9. Regarding birds this winter, they’ve been louder or more active due to the mildness. However, birds that migrate – eg, red-winged blackbirds – go in September regardless of the winter forecast (El Nino, La Nina, El Chapo, La Samba, or whatever it happens to be). They return in late winter/early spring, which usually means March. Sometimes their return is delayed by weather. So, last year, for instance, some returned a bit later than usual. On their migratory path, which takes days and days, they encounter all kinds of different climates. Birds that don’t migrate, which include cardinals, chickadees, blue jays, sparrows, and many others, have over millions of years adapted to our climate. It’s not easy during a winter like last year, but, they’re able to. I’m sure they `prefer’ milder winters like this one. In this sense they’re Charlie birds.

10. with the bird talk, Most migratory birds have all ready been up here, I have seen robins since mid/late February. Red wing black Birds since late February which is very early the birds and can lead to them dying if it gets to cold or snowy……The last time Robins and Red wings been up here so early was the winter of 2012

    1. You’re right about that. I observed Robins in February in 2012 and a friend saw several this February (though I didn’t see any myself). Last year they waited, smartly… 🙂

11. Matt, TK, you’re right about some of the migratory birds. Robins and red-winged blackbirds tend to come early when they can. Last year was of course an exception. And you’re right about 2012. Many birds not only migrated earlier. They mated earlier. In some cases perhaps too early. In Cambridge outside a friend’s apartment I witnessed a pigeon nesting in early to mid March of 2012. Pigeons make hilariously simple `nests.’ In this case they simply found a flower pot on a 5th floor balcony with some leftover dirt and then add a couple of twigs and long pieces of grass to sit on. If you recall we actually got one brief cold period at the end of the month. Well, that was about the time when the baby pigeon hatched. There was only one. I’m not sure if the others simply didn’t survive. The one pigeon did survive and flew off one day in April, according to my friend, and is now probably a pensioner roaming the streets near Harvard Square.

    1. Great read Joshua. And now when someone asks if anyone ever sees baby pigeons I have a answer in the affirmative.

12. Some of The trees are really budding here. Lots of red hue

    1. That will increase exponentially this upcoming week

       1. I am sure you are right with the warm weather even for a few days

13. Guys came up this morning from the cape to do some final stuff to the spa and they said we had more snow than the cape . It was really coming down good after the 9:00 hour.

14. Has the Cape seen more snow than Boston this winter?

15. Vicki, indeed there’s a myth out there that very few people have observed baby pigeons. I’m quite sure that if you know where to look – and I guarantee it’s not hard – you will spot them. In my lifetime I’ve seen 4 sets of nesting couples and their babies; 3 in flower pots and one in a flower box. The male pigeon definitely helps out, but not by doing any brooding. He’s the one who puts the `finishing touches’ on the nest, serves as a guard or night watchman, and brings food to the female and baby pigeons. The mother sits on the babies for quite some time. In fact, you’ll wonder where the babies are, as the mother is completely covering them until they’re really rather large baby pigeons who look ready to fly away.

    All this pigeon watching has given me a different perspective on these creatures many consider homely and a nuisance.

    To celebrate pigeons, a Mary Poppins tune, beautiful and yet sad:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XHrRxQVUFN4

    1. Thank you Joahua. I wonder if you have to be in an urban setting.

       1. For 3 of my 4 sightings, yes. One of them, however, was in Newton. So suburbs are a possibility. Look for them under bridges and in gutters. I know, it makes them sound like some of our homeless. But, it’s really true.

          1. 🙂

16. Nearly convinced we’re going to be on the colder side of the boundary more often than the warmer side, despite the warm up next week, into the middle of this month. Every solution gives more weight, figuratively and literally, to high pressure in Canada.

    1. Will that mean more snow opportunities than normal TK?

       1. Not necessarily. Probably right around the amount we’d typically see. Surface cold will be more prominent than upper cold, at least initially.

    2. I’ll take 40’s 🙂

       1. Well we get to 40+ tomorrow, 50+ Monday except some 40s coast, 60+ Tuesday except some 40s/50s coast. I’m curious to see how many places make 70 Wednesday, at least 60s, but again cooler coast. It may be back in the 40s by late Thursday and Friday of next week but that all depends on front timing.

17. Seems like Barry B is thinking end of week into first half of next weekend will remain mild and well above average for us.

    1. Winter on its last leg

       1. At the end of the 6 pm broadcast, Barry mentioned that his snow sticks will remain until April 1st. I do not believe that last night’s ocean effect snow was the grand finale of winter. We still need to see if Dr. Cohen’s 2nd half outlook verifies.

          1. I actually believe it was the last time in my opinion . Roller coaster temperature ride for March thats the story . It’s just a guess of course .

    2. He’s following ECMWF surface forecast.

    3. Strictly based on the Euro. Euro is warm for 10 days.

18. What a hockey game!! B’s 1-1 against Caps. It’s no wonder the Caps are in first … every drive looks like a crafted work of art.

    1. Glad your enjoying, we are watching the Celtics, very good game

       1. Cavs look like the winners.

          1. Yup, to bad,, goodnight longshot 🙂

19. Very short update posted. No real changes at all today.

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