Sunday Forecast

66 Comments

7:45AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 5-9)…
No changes to the previous discussion. On to an updated forecast we go!
SUNDAY: Decreasing clouds / increasing sun. However cloudiness hangs on into midday over lower Cape Cod with snow showers resulting in up to 1 inch of accumulation. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows middle 20s interior to lower 30s coast. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs around 50 except cooler southern coastal areas especially Cape Cod. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows around 40. Highs around 60 except cooler coastal areas especially Cape Cod.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows near 50. Highs around 70 except cooler coastal areas especially Cape Cod.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows around 50. Highs around 60 except cooler South Coast, but falling to the 40s in the afternoon.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 11-15)…
Fair and chilly March 11. Warming trend March 12-13 then cooling again March 14-15 with episodes of unsettled weather possible.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 16-20)…
Cooling trend continues with episodic unsettled weather but no indications of major storms at this time.

66 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

    1. Been outside collecting Winter debris (twigs etc). Chilly but very nice. Not much wind. Sun already increasing as clouds thin.

  3. TK, Thank you. Are we looking at a possible red flag days weds/ Thursday. I’m sure it will depend on wind speed

    1. Possible, yes. Maybe even Tuesday. I’m not sure how on top of this NWS will be, but just walking around my own back yard this morning to pick up some debris I could have started a small brush fire if I had any desire to. It’s already quite dry and the sun that shines more often than not during the daytimes today through Wednesday will just dry it out more, along with the increasing warmth. I’ll be posting reminders about outdoor burning etc. on here and my WHW Facebook page.

  4. Aside of the possible fire danger, I think the other thing to watch during this coming week will be timing of a cold front from the north. We’ve seen the GFS try to move this feature in as early as late-day Wednesday, while ECMWF holds it off at least into Thursday and then doesn’t give it as much of a push. I think the GFS is too aggressive and I think the ECMWF is not aggressive enough with this front. If I had to place my bet 4 days in advance I’d say the front passes the Boston area Thursday morning. Although the CMC from 00z supports the slower solution, bringing the front through Thursday night. It may seem like a trivial thing but it’s going to be very important regarding the resulting weather…
    A slower scenario: Thursday could be in the 60s and largely rain-free.
    A quicker scenario: Thursday could end up at least overcast, possibly damp, and temps could fall into the 40s, especially in coastal areas from NH to eastern MA.

    This may seem boring to some, and I understand that, but I love trying to figure this stuff out. 🙂

    1. It is fun ! Does the front have to push through or do we even simply need to see the wind subside some to encourage onshore flow ? That would do that trick as well.

      1. There should be enough westerly gradient ahead of the front to largely prevent cooling on east-facing shores but anything with a south-facing shoreline will cool pretty easily, and certainly southwest-facing and west-facing shores around Cape Cod will chill off all during the “warm” stretch.

  5. Today’s 1st AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    How many meteorological winter days this year did Boston reach 60 degrees or above?
    A. 6
    B. 7
    C. 8
    D. 9

    Today’s 2nd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What effect does cloud cover have on day time temperature?
    A. Warms temps up
    B. Cools temps down
    C. Has no effect

    Today’s 3rd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    The typical lifetime of a small cumulus cloud is how long?
    A. 5-10 minutes
    B. 10-15 minutes
    C. 15-20 minutes
    D. 20-25 minutes

    Answers later today. I managed to get 2 wrong.

  8. If the Bruins pull off 2 wins on the road against the 2 teams ahead of them in the Atlantic (Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning) then they make it into first place. This team has been inconsistent, and poor at home, but excellent on the road. However, the last 2 home games against the defending cup champion Black Hawks and the team running all of the league Capitals were great games. Even though the Bruins lost in OT last night, holding the Caps to 1 goal in regulation and earning a point against them was a great accomplishment and more than most teams can muster against them lately.

    Are the Bruins a cup-contending team this year? Probably not. But I like the path they’re on right now. Management and coaching, though could be better, are not bad either.

  9. Light to moderate snow showers across the lower Cape Cod area now – up to 1 inch there before it moves off.

      1. I had to think about that for a bit. I definitely agree of course. I believe, however, that all of our First Ladies have been a wonderful representation of our country’s values.

  12. I was not a fan of Ronald or Nancy Reagan, but I respected them. In 1987, Reagan gave a prophetic speech in Berlin, urging Gorbachev to “tear down this wall.” He proved all his critics wrong, myself included, with this daring gambit. The wall came down two years later, offering freedom to tens of millions of people who had been denied that privilege for many decades. Nancy Reagan was similarly prescient, in my view, when she declared a war on drugs. At the time, her critics, myself included, scoffed at the notion that a war on drugs was necessary. How wrong we were. The failure of Administrations post-Reagan to address (and take seriously) the problem of drug use has led to the major crisis we’re currently in with regard to heroin, meth, and crack, among others. I wish we had listened to Nancy. May she rest in peace.

    1. Nice comments Joshua and ones I share. Very sad to read of her passing but what a life she had.

    1. Matt Forte is an ideal running back for the Patriots, I think. Quicker than Blount and more agile in terms of ability to catch passes. He and Lewis would be a great duo. Blount could still serve a purpose of being the bruiser who can punish defenses late in games with runs, as well as short yardage situations.

  14. ECMWF from 12z says shorter-duration warm-ups and quicker deliveries of cold air from the north. Surprised? Shouldn’t be.

    1. Cold for mid to late March? Or cold like Jan, cold for mid to late March isn’t that cold IMO. 🙂

      1. I’m not talking about January. It’s March. When I’m forecasting the weather I usually refer to whatever time of year it is and then speak of the temperatures versus those averages. It’s also not really a matter of opinion when forecasting. Colder than normal is colder than normal. Warmer than normal is warmer than normal. Some people think 30s are warm. Some people think 50s are chilly. It’s all relative when it comes to personal feelings, but my job is to just forecast the weather and let people form their own thoughts on what it means to them.

        My point above is that the warm side of the air mass is certainly coming, but it’s going to get cut off fairly quickly. First, a slight delay as a bubble of high pressure drives a weak front through late Monday. It will still be milder Tuesday but some of the potential is lost. Wednesday still looks very very mild (70 in some areas). Timing of front for Thursday is still in question but it looks like an unsettled day now. Chilly weather back for Friday, a one-day warm-up Saturday and then another high pressure push from the north after that.

  15. Ray Tomlinson – inventor of the email, the first of which he sent from an office in Boston in 1971 – died at the age of 74.

  16. TK, thanks for the explanation. Indeed, cold and warmth are always relative concepts, unless we’re talking about Kelvin’s absolute zero.

    Cold in March is not the same as cold in January. Likewise, when somebody says it’s cold or cool in July (say, 60F), it would be very mild in January.

  17. Gosh a very tough day. Ray Tomlinson who created the email passed away. I remember my father in law talking about him. I still have an AOL account because my FIL gave me my first back in maybe 1990. I guessing he is meeting Mr Tomlinson at the gate to shake his hand.

      1. Twilight is well into the 6PM hour.
        We will be seeing light next Sunday until after 7:30PM, especially if it’s clear or partly cloudy. An overcast would negate that to some degree…

        1. Thank you….I love the nights when we have more light. And also the nights when we do not. Something special about both.

          1. We think very much alike, and that being said, I bet you love the transition from light to dark heading toward Winter just as much as you love the transition from dark to light heading toward Summer. Just a hunch. 😉

            1. Yep. I sure do. I love that we can look forward to both. I also love that we can look forward to four very distinct seasons and the struggle of each to both give way to the old and become the new. Sometimes, I think it is the changeover that is the most exciting. I don’t understand the rush to get to the next because you miss the in between

  19. Answers to Quizzes.

    Today’s 1st AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.
    How many meteorological winter days this year did Boston reach 60 degrees or above?
    A. 6
    B. 7
    C. 8
    D. 9

    The answer is D.

    Today’s 2nd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.
    What effect does cloud cover have on day time temperature?
    A. Warms temps up
    B. Cools temps down
    C. Has no effect

    The answer is B.

    Today’s 3rd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.
    The typical lifetime of a small cumulus cloud is how long?
    A. 5-10 minutes
    B. 10-15 minutes
    C. 15-20 minutes
    D. 20-25 minutes

    The answer is B.

        1. It would not have been good if I got any of those wrong. 😉
          #1, I keep track of.
          #2, basic meteorology.
          #3, basic meteorology.

            1. 3 for 3 and I am not even a met! 😀

              This is probably the first time I got multiple questions correct. 2 of 3 I totally guessed and the one I was fairly certain of.

  20. Looking in the weather crystal ball, maybe some snow/mix for portions of the region around March 15 and again in the vicinity of the Vernal Equinox.

      1. No, I mean the area in general. You can’t specify higher elevations vs. lower elevations and pinpoint exact locations this far in advance. This is the large scale pattern that will be heading in a direction that supports a couple shots at wintry weather mid to late month. Ensembles and outlooks for NAO and MJO all support this.

    2. Not giving up on hoping to ski somewhere in northern NE first weekend in April.

      Got good skiing this weekend at Jay Peak and Cannon.
      It was gorgeous weather: cold and clear. Could see forever from Jay Peak yesterday. 15-25 degrees, dry, sunny, little wind

    1. With lots of high pressure in Canada, there sure is a chance. I don’t think we’ll sustain anything one way or another, however. Lots of roller-coastering.

  22. The game changes (again) starting with the 12z runs on Tuesday March 8…
    It will be interesting to see how much better the new ECMWF is than everything else. Will flaws be exposed, or will it perform at or above the excellent level it has been performing at while being run along side its soon-to-be-replaced cousin?

  23. Some reports of the Aurora Borealis in northern New England and as far south as the MA/NH border. Not sure if it’s a short burst or will maintain into late night.

  24. Friday looks like the chilly day of the week, and that’s still slightly above average at near to around 50 degrees.

    1. Add Monday and Tuesday to that for parts of the region as well. Near 50 Monday. Coastal areas may be in the 40s Tuesday while southwest of Boston approaches 60 (not so cool there).

      Thursday may also end up a whole lot cooler than some forecasts indicate…

  25. Euro says some snow overnight Thursday (3/10-3/11)
    About 3 inches for boston. over a foot up North. Something to watch.

  26. Updated!

    I see the Euro’s snow threat for early Friday. We’ll see. Not biting completely yet so just reflected it by adding rain/mix to the end of the precip threat and will fine-tune later.

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