Monday Forecast

101 Comments

7:26AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 7-11)…
Disturbance passes today with some cloudiness and a slight risk of brief light rain in a few areas. High pressure builds Tuesday and Wednesday and in comes the warm air, especially Wednesday, but as previously discussed, coastal areas and Cape Cod will be cooler than the majority of the region on both days. A cold front drops through the region Thursday and then provides the avenue for a wave of low pressure. This results in a cooling trend for the end of the week and some wet weather at least part of Thursday into early Friday (timing still not completely certain).
TODAY: Sunshine gives way to lots of clouds. Slight chance of brief light rain but mainly rain-free. Highs upper 40s to lower 50s, except lower to middle 40s southern coastal areas especially Cape Cod.
Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows middle 30s to lower 40s. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs middle 50s to lower 60s interior, 40s coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with sea breezes.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows near 50. Highs around 70 except cooler coastal areas especially Cape Cod.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows around 50. Highs around 60 except cooler South Coast, but falling to the 40s in the afternoon.
FRIDAY: Chance of rain/mix early then clearing. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 12-16)…
Likely near a boundary with disturbances aplenty, therefore up and down temps and periods of unsettled weather, impossible to time this far in advance.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 17-21)…
A continuation of the up and down may be the case early in the period. Subtle indications of a more important storm system toward the end of the period.

101 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  5. Thank you TK. March is usually and up and down month, so why should this one
    be any different.

    How’s it looking for that BIG EASTER SNOW STORM????

    I joke, but I am wondering IF it could happen. 😀

      1. I’m not saying I want it. We’re doing dinner at our house.

        That’s why I think it may happen. 😀

          1. Hope you are correct.

            We’re having a tenderloin roast and that ain’t cheap so I don’t want ANY of it to go to waste.

            So, I don’t need no freakin snow storm!

            1. I hear ya my friend . Not sure what I’m cooking . I just think we are done I just have a feeling . And next weekend we go back to longer days. I could also be completely wrong . Have a good day

  8. 12Z NAM is coming out.
    It says Cool near the coast tomorrow (gee didn’t TK say that?)
    Still has warmth for Wednesday.

      1. Yup, specifically you said:

        TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs middle 50s to lower 60s interior, 40s coast.

  9. Tim Kelley noted that while we’re warming up this week several disturbances will cross the border area giving the mountains some additional snow, and parts of northern Maine several mini snowstorms. We’ve been hearing this theme before as disturbances don’t `want’ to dive south and remain right along our border with Canada. Kelley also noted that Mexico City (well, the outskirts) may get snow showers for the first time in 40 to 50 years later this week. Topsy-turvy weather, indeed.

    We were really blessed with beautiful, bright weather Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday. And Friday looked a little wintry. I enjoyed all 4 days of crispness. Now it’s back to reality of clouds, wind, and 40s. Blah … blah … blah …

  10. Dr. Cohen’s latest blog is ready. I have not had time to read it all, but a quick glance yields that he now expects Mild weather for the next 2 WEEKS, before it cools off.
    Appears to be quite a bit different from his last week’s entry.

    So, we shall see.

    1. If it cools off end of the month then it is pretty much too little, too late for snow. But, it would be fitting indeed – most of us live in coastal New England – to have it cool off and then remain stuck in raw, damp, and dreary for the entire month of April and into May.

      1. That would be perfectly fitting after a very mild Winter, now
        wouldn’t it???

        Just can’t go into a nice and mild Spring as well! No that’s wouldn’t be the way!

  11. Thanks TK. Moderate to heavy snow here in Plymouth, NH for the past half hour or so… Visibility as low as a quarter to half mile at times.

  12. Very cold air (note: for the time of year) returns to parts of New England the last week to 10 days of the month. All indications (model guidance) suggest this. But, will that cold get cut off at the pass and have little or no impact on SNE is the bigger question. Based on trends, I would opt for the cold to get cut off at the pass, resulting in rather dramatic differences in temperature and precipitation type between southern, central, and northern New England.

    The snow bonanza continues by the way in Quebec. More snow today – though mostly light – and a bit more later this week. Northern Maine and New Brunswick are getting hammered by heavy wet snow. They will get a few `mild’ days near 40F before crashing back to the cold and snowy regime that has been impacting the area for quite some time. The final week to 10 days of March, and right into April, look especially cold up there with temps in the 20s during the day and single digits and teens at night. This is where the dome of cold has been sitting but making only sporadic incursions to southern New England.

    1. 12Z Euro has LOST the snow for Thurs night into Friday. As you say it is way up North and NOT in SNE or CNE.

      Euro is not without the BD cold fronts, but clearly the overall pattern
      is for milder weather. Euro even showing 70 for Wednesday and they way
      it has been going all Winter, high temp will likely overachieve. I believe
      that Boston’s record is 72. We “could” surpass that.

  13. After the morning snow, we’ve had a steady band of graupel push through here early this afternoon. Looks even more intense over into Maine, seeing several reports of it there.

    1. Interesting. I’ve always felt the heat island effect distorted things, but had never seen hard data on it. Wasn’t there talk of us entering a solar minimum soon, which would lead to a cooling period over the next 5-10 years? TK, I think you may have mentioned this once

  15. For Friday, 12z Euro still has pockets of 1″+ snow for NE/north central MA, 3-6″ for much of NNE and an area of 6″+ in the White Mtns and western ME. So it has indeed backed off somewhat from the 0Z run as Dave indicated.

    I was reading from someone on other forum that the 0z Euro Para (upgraded Euro) which will replace the existing operational Euro as of tomorrow, had basically what today’s 12z run had. So hopefully a sign of things to come – improved performance and sniffing things out a bit earlier.

    1. I forgot about that. So it’s tomorrow. Would that be with the
      0Z run tonight OR the 12Z run tomorrow? Technically the 0Z run
      is a March 8th run.

      😀

        1. That’s what I was hoping. The sooner, the better.

          This just WIDENS the gap between the Euro
          and the American GFS. The GFS was inferior as it
          was and now it is going to be even more INFERIOR.

          Sad, very very sad indeed.

    3. It gives me chills just watching the video. I cannot imagine seeing them in person.

      Rainshine posted a photo of them from the Gloucester/Rockport area on FB.

      I do not recall in years past that they have dropped this far south as often as they seem to???

  18. Great outside working weather. I’m very very happy on a good start to the season. Last year I couldn’t even begin until the end of March. Latest beginning last 10 yrs. This year we have about 100 1st visits complete. Should finish 1st visits by April 8th. We begin fertilization’s late next week.

    1. Do you have sun there? It has been biting cold here which is unusual for me to say because I am rarely cold. The wind has been in evidence a lot with some stiff gusts.

      1. The sun has been out much longer to the south and very little elsewhere. We’ve had under 30 minutes of sun today in the Woburn/Reading area.

        1. Nice. I was surprised how chilled I was today. Although I think I may not have been feeling well because, as I said, I am never chilled

    2. It’s excellent for being out there. Ground isn’t even that mushy in most spots.

      1. My yard is a mush pit, evidenced by my muddy pawed dog every time she comes in from outside

          1. My son in law has been in yard all weekend. Filling the dumpster. Ground was so.id. He just came in with dog and wanted to know if it rained here today as it was very mushy

          2. Mine has been muddy as well because of the digging they did for the spa. I’m putting a patio around it but until than its just something that will need to be dealt with until the end of the month when it’s down .

  20. Exact quote per Eric fisher, “winter is caput” with the next 2 weeks above average.

        1. You always seem so nervous to call winter over, I’ve seen many years winter over by this time

  21. Today is the 15 year anniversary of the March 6-7 2001 “historic east coast blizzard” or for some, the blizzard that wasn’t. I remember this storm fairly well as I was out skiing in Utah the week before and remember turning on TWC near the end of the week and hearing the hype about a historic coastal storm forming and forecast to stall out and deliver 2-4 feet of snow from the Mid Atlantic to SNE. We were flying back just in time, a day or two before the storm was forecast to hit. When we returned, everyone was abuzz and Gov Rowland here in CT had issued an unprecedented statewide commercial travel ban beginning Monday of that week.

    In the end, it never snowed a flake here that Monday. The storm ended up forming later and further north than models originally indicated and was not as strong. We eventually got into the heavy snow in CT on Tuesday and ended up with 12-18″ statewide but many areas of the mid Atlantic from DC to NYC got little to nothing. This is perhaps one of the biggest winter storm forecast busts that I can remember (esp for the Mid Atlantic) as huge amounts of snow were still being forecast 24 hours from the start of the storm.

    I did not know much about weather models at the time but understand that the AVN model (the GFS’ predecessor) busted big time. It was showing a huge hit and farther south hit as late as 24 hours before the storm while other models such as the Euro and ETA (present day NAM) had backed off and shifted north. Most forecasters at the time, including the NWS, stuck with the AVN and got burned. I guess some things never change.

    Nice recap of the storm here:
    http://www.northshorewx.com/20010305.asp

  23. The storm in early February that year in 2001 delivered more snow to my area. I remember that winter with its three big storms. One prior to New Year’s Eve second one early February and third one which Mark mentioned.

    1. Now that you mention it, I remember that one now as well….was living in the apartments by the Buckland Hills Mall in Manchester at that time and we received 20″ of snow. Got up in the AM and couldn’t believe how much snow we had. Took me a long time to dig my car out. That storm over-performed in comparison to the March storm that year. Overall, 2000-2001 was a decent winter. And it was followed up by a complete dud the next year. Funny how history repeats itself!

  24. Euro ensembles look quite cold in the long range…..perhaps a white Spring Equinox surprise is not that far out of the realm of possibilities?

  25. Split flow, lack of jet stream buckling, call it what we will but winter looks just about done. I’m officially sticking a great big fork in it, and I hate to do that. But what I’m seeing doesn’t bode well for those of us who want to hang on to winter for dear life. The jet stream and cold air to our north have pretty much stayed there and look to remain that way for the foreseeable future. If I had some time off I’d take a trip to QC in mid to late March, alas I have no time off.

    2. I think it’s just a 50/50 shot at the ones that say they think winter is done vs winter is not done . Some signs may show chances sure but = chances that it never materializes. It’s a 50/5o shot .

          1. Pretty fun period. Bruins are solid. Claude is out-coaching the opposition to the point of embarrassing them tonight.

  28. Yeah no. We won’t be seeing any mid Winter conditions anymore.
    But… Some of us will shovel snow before March is over. All the signs are there. Some people just either cannot see them or refuse to see them.

    History shows when we go mild early in March, just about always will there be a reversion at least briefly and you’ll get a late storm of some type of mix/snow. Maybe not the entire region, but a good portion of it.

      1. Well that depends on the pattern. This year it’ll probably be warmer in early to mid March than it is later in the month.

  29. We are actually going golfing in 12 days, forecast high looks to be around 50-55 degrees. 🙂

    1. What did you use to get your 12-day temperature forecast?
      Certainly not this blog.

        1. Ah the 45 day forecast. 😉
          Elliot told us that calendar forecast was “for entertainment purposes”. It’s pretty much just model data anyway.

  32. Regarding that March 2001 snowstorm, Boston received 6.2″ which is a record for the date for March 6th. Boston was fortunate to get as much as it did. From NYC south the storm turned out to be a complete bust IIRC.

    I actually ended up with a snow day from work. 😀

    1. Aside of a surprise, not much. We still have to watch around March 15 as some of the guidance has been seeing something borderline around that time. Wouldn’t be a big storm though.

  36. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    The coldest temperature ever recorded in Boston is
    A. -16
    B. -18
    C. -20
    D. -22

    Answer later today.

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