Saturday Forecast

189 Comments

8:52AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 19-23)…
The Vernal Equinox occurs early Sunday morning, and for those who still don’t know exactly what that means, it’s when Winter turns to Spring. We all know around here that it doesn’t automatically mean we leave Winter, harsh or not, behind us and see nothing but sun and warmth. Spring in New England can bring that, but more often than not brings a variety of weather ranging from the pleasant to the lingering feel of Winter, though one of the more common feels in Spring, especially if you live near the coast, is ocean-boosted chill. On this final day of astronomical Winter, it will be the feel of Winter we have as a pretty cold air mass has been delivered to us from Canada, but this is not like a mid Winter cold, and the strong March sunshine will offset the existing air mass, as well as the fact that it won’t be too windy. Net result, a bright, chilly day, that doesn’t feel that bad if you’re outside. The next order of business is the storm threat, which as you know, we’ve been eyeing for a long while. The error lies not in the fact we knew there would be a storm threat in this window around the Equinox, as it is indeed there. As I always say, it comes down to details in the end, as far as the actual impact. You can still have identified a storm threat and have the storm pass just too far away to impact you directly, or you can get a storm full-on, or anything in between. If you’re incorrect in your initial assessment as a forecaster, there will be no threat at all. This is not the case this time. The ultimate result, as far as southern New England is concerned, is the storm will impact the region, just not in a major way. Everyone will see cloudiness, most of us will see snow, but few of us will see the kind of snow that has to be moved around to make travel easier. That appears as if it will be confined to the southeastern reaches of our area, as the storm threat is coming in the form of a couple loosely connected areas of low pressure which are never given the full opportunity to join together, forming a larger system that would have had a greater reach and a more northward track. And it is even more complex than just 2 low pressure areas. There are no less than 4 pieces of energy, which as of this morning, are still hundreds of miles apart, that would need to come together to make the “worst-case scenario” occur. As meteorologists (and some enthusiasts) we only have past experience, current information, and human-programmed computer guidance to rely on. And in some cases, the latter is going to reveal its limitations. This is one of those cases. It is generally, at medium range, a widespread model error across the board. We can argue which models are better or worse, and it’s obvious that a couple picked up on this new southward trend sooner than others, but that’s not to say they would perform any better or worse on a situation slightly different than this. There is never anything truly 100% certain in the science of meteorology, and though we’ll learn from this situation and hope to apply some of this knowledge going forward, the truth is we’ll never see this exact set-up again, and that is both the beauty and ugliness of this science that I and many others love so much. So now that you know my view on all of this, we go forward and finish the forecast, and the adjustment has been made to push the snow area further southeastward with minor to borderline moderate amounts (break-down below). Timing of the snow will be mainly Sunday night to early Monday. The systems all push away during Monday and help deliver a short-lived shot of colder air for Tuesday. A warm front will move into the region Wednesday, bringing cloudiness and possibly some precipitation with it.
TODAY: Sunny. Highs in the middle 30s to lower 40s. Wind light N.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows in the middle 10s to lower 20s. Wind light N.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy with variable high clouds from the south and scattered lower clouds from the ocean. Highs in the middle 30s to lower 40s. Wind light NE to E.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow develops south to north but may barely make it north central MA and southwestern NH, and will be steadiest and moderate at times mainly over southeastern MA. Accumulations from 1 inch or less north central MA into south central NH, 1-3 inches Boston area, 3-6 inches southeatsern MA. A mix with rain may hold accumulations down under 3 inches outer Cape and Islands. Lows in the upper 20s to middle 30s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH with higher gusts Cape Cod region.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with any snow ending. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs in the middle 30s to lower 40s. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs middle 30s to lower 40s.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light rain/mix. Lows upper 20s to middle 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 24-28)…
Milder with only a slight risk of spotty rain March 24, leading to fair and warmer weather March 25-26. Cooling trend and becoming unsettled March 27-28.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 29-APRIL 2)…
Progressive pattern of frequent changes still looks likely with variable temperatures and at least a couple threats of precipitation.

189 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  3. Thank you TK. Fabulous discussion. Well done TK.

    I guess you said it all. Not much to say after that, except despite all of it, I am
    disappointed, but life goes on. Weather goes on. We learn and go about our business.

    Bring on the Warmth? Oh wait it’s March! We’ll have to take what we get. 😀

  4. Thanks TK! At least the national media outlets didn’t hype the storm. :-). Looks like they made the right choice.

    1. You’re right, Sue. And I was off the mark.

      And now Amy can drive in RI without worries on Monday, Charlie can do his fertilizing, and we can enjoy spring … Oh wait, it’s 32 degrees out.

      1. And I can move. I know it is an El Niño year. I suspect we are underestimating the power of mac. 🙂

  5. Thank you, TK. Excellent discussion.

    I am disappointed in the models and have been all winter, but know that meteorology is only as exact as mother nature (some would say God) allows it to be. It’s not like a physics or chemistry experiment performed in the laboratory, under conditions that are controlled and therefore not random.

    The Charlie model of wild guesses won out. We economists often sheepishly admit that wild guesses can be (and often are) better predictors of economic indicators such as growth, unemployment, inflation, trade, capital flows, etc … When people ask me to predict the next recession, I’ll tell them “your guess is as good as mine.” Now, economics is known as the “dismal science.” Not because it is dismal (I think it’s quite the opposite), but because it’s downright awful at predicting. Here’s where natural sciences have a distinct advantage. And yes, this includes meteorology. The human element of irrationality messes up economic predictions. The atmosphere, on the other hand, isn’t irrational. It’s just fickle.

      1. Campy Hype wasn’t all it was made it out to be. The over-inflated rafts popped and then sunk, the vegetables were so darn overcooked, and the steak was overdone (which is criminal as you pointed out).

      2. The problem with Camp Bust is that most of its members were only in the camp because they didn’t want a storm, not because they used any science to arrive at that conclusion (with a couple exceptions, which should be recognized with good praise). I’d still rather be a hold out in the name of using science as my reason, being it successful or not). 🙂

  6. Thank you TK. All of your discussions are excellent. This is exceptional. I would love to see a met pick it up. It would be perfect for the general public to read

    1. They’d never be allowed to. The media does not operate on the basis of facts and reason, unfortunately. The bosses would scoff and say “on to the next disaster!” 😉

  8. Thank you tk!! Great to read the explanation. I will saying will this storm I had a weird crazy feeling it was gonna pull a shocker. The #4536754 Charlie model upset the #1 euro. Hope everyone is having a good day.

    1. Enjoy your brief vacation.
      Anything that falls there will vanish rapidly. Minor precip threat at midweek. Still see a bit of opportunity for cold and late flakes at times into early April, but the overall pattern going forward is warm and trending drier again. Hot summer ahead.

  9. Looks like weather could have been a factor in the crash of the Dubai airliner (737) at a of Moscow airport. The weather at the time was foggy, windy, rain changing to snow. Airliners can land in almost any kind of weather, but we forget how vulnerable aircraft are to deteriorating conditions.

    1. I’m sorry, I provided, misinformation, it was not a Moscow airport but an airport outside a city to the south of Moscow.

  11. Looking at the 12Z NAM, it “looks” like it is showing a little bit better phasing.
    Probably wrong, just an observation.

  13. CPC has updated their monthly and seasonal outlooks and basically the synopsis is this…

    Precipitation: Trending drier through 2016 into early 2017.
    Temperatures: Warmer than normal Spring 2016, hot Summer 2016, transition from warm early Fall to cold late Fall, cold end of 2016 to early 2017.
    Some of this is inferred from years of looking at these maps and reading their discussions.

    At this point, I continue to generally agree with their assessment of the longer range. There is more to it, however. A cold spike ongoing in the otherwise warm phase of the AMO (Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation) is likely going to limit tropical activity in the Atlantic, even if we head into La Nina during the tropical season. The length of the temporary cold spike may have an impact on longer range temperature forecasts later this year, but given that we don’t know how long the spike will last, it’s not wise to make any major changes at this time.

  14. RE: 12z NAM.
    Looks slightly more impressive and this is because the model is now seeing a little better the rate of deepening of the final low pressure center. It still keeps the energy pieces generally from phasing until they are well beyond the region, so this is still not going to turn into something bigger, but the final piece catches the region a little bit, almost like trying to throw a last punch as the ref breaks up the fight and hauls you away to the box. 😉

    2. Was just going to post that.
      My Goodness!! Will it ever end. On again, off again!!!!

      GEEZ

      We’re getting back to it again.

      Throws some decent precip our way.

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2016031912&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=045

      Here’s the snow map!!!

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016031912&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=060

      Now what gives with the Euro and the Canadian??????

      Perhaps the Canadian wasn’t so bad afterall.

      I can’t believe this whole series of model runs with this upcoming event.

      HOLY CRAP BATMAN!!!!!!

        1. That or the GFS couldn’t stand to actually beat the EURO so it’s reverting to its old self. 🙂 🙂

  16. The 12z guidance would make one think the adjustment Harvey made (1/2 way) may have been the way to go versus the one Barry made (more extreme). I don’t fault EITHER ONE of these guys that have to make a decision for their viewers…

      1. The deal now is that we snow Sunday night (as has always been the case). And it ends Monday. Amount? Working on that. As far as you are concerned, for Woburn, I’d lean in the 1-3 zone at the moment.

    3. TK anything to make of this? I was in the “we are getting close to nothing” mindset now I see these runs coming in.

  17. Hello all! As you know I am a layman so the definition of “nothing based in science just gut” but my question is this – we are still over 24 hours away from the event and everyone is saying the models blew it completely and it will be a miss. But isn’t that analysis still based on models stating that we need all 4 pieces and that they won’t come together? I’m a little confused as I think based on models we are saying the models blew it – but couldn’t the models still be blowing it?? Dazed and confused.

    1. With models, people for some unknown reason to me anyway tend to verify them based on a certain number of days away. Models are just programs, run periodically, with data inputted to result in a simulation. They are going to do what they are going to do. It’s up to the meteorologists to do what they do, sometimes to faults, to come up with the best prediction possible.

      Every event is ongoing and evolving right up to and during it. We can only hope we have given as accurate a picture of what will transpire as is possible. The models have shown what I like to call “computerized confusion” because of the complexity of this particular setup, but nothing has been nailed or blown yet.

      1. Thanks TK! I do understand the pressure on the tv mets to make definitive calls but to my layman eyes I feel like the only thing that’s definite about this system so far is that the models are unable to handle it. Or – what that all we know based on data to date is that we don’t know… I was a little disappointed not to see more of that from wbz late last night. They seemed to shut the door on it.

  18. Ik the nws said there going to take down the wsw ‘s did they? I’ll check later. It’s costing me more money out here to chit chat and blog thanks

  22. Is it this ….

    All 4 pieces of energy are still NOT coming together, however ……

    The last piece of energy is hanging back enough to be tugged closer from the energy coming out of the Hudson Bay energy and those 2 combined are going to provide a decent, moderate event ??????

    1. That’s what I think we’re seeing. The snowstorm depicted on several of these 12z models doesn’t look like the same snowstorm they were predicting a couple days ago. It’s a different storm, but maybe the impacts will be about the same as if it were the original “big one”?

  23. Yikes, time to start sweating on my end now I think with the low numbers. What a change. 12z UKMET very much on board for snow now as well. Still, only one cycle.

  24. I remember a storm back in the 90s 24 hours prior it was suppose to be a miss then turned on the 11pm news the miss turned into a good size dumping of snow next day.
    I am not saying this will happen here but wouldn’t it be something a storm people gave up turned into a decent amount of snow.

    1. Yes – my take away on this one seems to be that the models just can’t handle this system so we really don’t know. That being said I’m going to pull a reverse Charlie and make a wild guess that this one is going to surprise us with a good sized storm. I make that prediction based mostly on gut – (which lately seems to have a less than 50 percent success rate so Camp Bust may prevail) but also on TK’s early season predictions of some larger storm or storms at the backend of winter and on the personal belief that they can’t all be a miss. But I’m still going to do my “homework” Sunday night to hedge my bets…

  25. I’ll look forward to seeing the EURO later on.

    Headed back to see the doctor. My cough is returning and my lungs are really sore again. Might be time for a chest X-ray. 🙁

    1. Tom – So sorry you’re sick. Glad re X-ray – I didn’t push for one last year soon enough and ultimately ended up in the hospital for a week with a fiesty antibiotic resistant pneumonia – so I would recommend to be super careful, take good care of yourself, hopefully it isn’t and won’t become pneumonia. Feel better soon!!

  27. May have to arrange a plow for my wife. 78 degrees today in Haifa–down to 67 tomorrow in Tel Aviv.

  28. This is insane! There are many days I look back and wish I had gone into the field of meteorology but this is not one of them. Cannot imagine what it must be like to have to issue an official forecast a few days before a storm with conflicting and inconsistent guidance like this.

  29. It’s like an on- and off-again relationship. One day you break up, the next you’re back together. An emotional roller coaster, but in meteorological terms.

    1. That’s funny.

      So, time to marry the GFS or not. Time to make a decision. Been going on for too long now

  30. Navgem looks like CMC. 10″+ for a good portion of SNE.

    UKMET bombs out out to 976mb as it passes thru the gulf of Maine. Also 10″+ for eastern MA and 6″+ snows as far west as Hartford.

    Several GFS ensembles are west of the operational as well, some even introducing rain in coastal areas.

    Euro starts running in about 15 min…..

  32. Still further east you are in SNE the more snow. Looks like I am going to be missing out on the brunt of snow.

  33. I’m holding still boston will not see 6 inches still going on a very minor event 1-2.5 if I had to throw out a number . Next run will be down and one after that will be up

  34. Tweet from Harvey Leonard
    Better (though not perfect) model agreement of close enough storm track for plowable snow potential for many

  35. So, with all these ups and downs, do you think the NWS will put most areas back into a winter storm watch again? I think it might have been premature to have posted when they did yesterday afternoon… thoughts?

  36. Not as big a shift west on the 12z Euro as the other models. Accumulations are up a bit, pretty decent hit for SE MA.

  40. Not going to change my thoughts from this morning of a light snow event for most of eastern mass, with a light/moderate event on the cape and islands.

  41. So, a number of models that had very little on their 6z runs have a significant storm on their 12z runs, and the Euro stubbornly resists jumping on board after being one of the hold-outs yesterday for a decent hit. Am I seeing this correctly? I realize the Euro has a hit, but not as much as the others.

    In any event, Amy, hold off on the drive from Newport RI on Monday. Looks like it could be treacherous after all.

    Beautiful, beautiful day today by the way. Glorious March sunshine, crisp air. Beats the past 5 days, that’s for sure.

  42. Kane, I’m hoping your cousin sees some snow. She certainly will experience some winter chill today, possibly some snow Monday, and then the ups and downs of March as the week progresses.

    1. She was freezing when she came last night, and its only about to get colder! I am excited to see her first reaction of the snow, probably more than her too lol. I hope we at least get 4 inches, that will be good enough. I hope it’s wet snow too so it can stick on the tress, it looks soo much prettier that way too

  43. 12z Euro and 12z GFS are almost identical in QPF/snow totals now.
    Is this the final solution? The way things have gone so far, my guess is no way. With 36 hours to go, there is easily still time for this to shift west another 25-50 miles.

  44. I’m back on the fence re: drive my Newport to Boston Monday morning versus Sunday night… Do please keep the analysis coming… It’s much appreciated!

  45. I remain unimpressed and think less is what we get. As retrac said its one of those winters that keeps the averages.

      2. What are you talking about? GFS and Euro have 6″ for snow for you, CMC/UKMET even more for your area!

        Shouldn’t you be dozing on the beach with a frozen daiquiri about now?? 🙂

        1. I gotta be honest I don’t follow every single model run, and think that’s what’s going to happen. The trend over the last 2 days has been less and less. I do believe it continues less but who knows, I’m not worried About it snowing, my main concern is for it to be gone by Wednesday. I’m heading to have a pina colada now.

          2. Lol! You were the one who said this storm was going to bring a lot of rain a few days ago and then declared the storm a miss the next day when the models changed! Keep enjoying those pina coladas!!

  46. I just read the winter storm watch, it’s saying not a big deal with 1-4 inches, and IF, a BIG IF!!! And if the heavier band comes inland some could get 6 inches. Perfect storm, and I’ll go with what tk said, a little accumulation and by the time I return very late Tuesday night Wed, it’ll be gone anyways.

    1. I’m not sold on “little”. We’re not going to get buried, but the jury’s still out on what the final #’s end up. But even a considerable amount of snow won’t be hanging around long. We’ll be in late March, not January. Big difference. 🙂

  47. I think it’s somewhat amazing that some models painted up to 2ft just 2 days ago. and now 24 hrs away from the supposley 1st flakes, there saying under 6 inches, and I’m not bought into that.

  49. Re gfs and euro.they may have had
    The correct solution as of conditions at 12z
    What about 0z and then 12z tomorrow???
    We shall see.

  50. NWS out of Upton puts eastern parts of Long Island under winter storm watch as well as New London County in CT. Winter Weather Advisory central Long Island and Middlesex county CT.
    Curious if NWS out of Taunton puts up a winter weather alert for Tolland Windham and Hartford counties in CT.

      1. If you’re more than 24 hours out from the start of a potential event, it’s always best to wait 2 runs before any drastic changes.

  52. I tossed out preliminary numbers already knowing the the meteorological world (at least this part of it) is being jerked around by model runs. I’ve seen enough to know, in this case and others before it, that there is not going to be a final call based on models. It’s just not going to happen (except maybe some of the very short range guidance starting tomorrow). My #’s can be tweaked up or down, either way, any direction. I’m not going to sit here and say I know exactly how this is going to pan out, because as an experienced meteorologist, I’m going to tell you that I have an idea, but I’m not close to certain. I’m following and will give the best “final call” I can as soon as I feel comfortable doing so.

  55. Gotta love the GFS.
    Near 60 next Friday. Measurable snow for parts of the region next Saturday morning. 😀

    1. No final call yet. And for good reason. I wouldn’t sweat it much. Nothing that falls is hanging around long. We get 1 inch or 5 inches in Woburn, it will change how much snow you need to move off the driveway/walkways. Won’t need to touch anything else, including the roof. Late March is far from December/January. 🙂

        1. At this time of year, unless we’re going to get 6+ followed by heavy rain right away, or we’re going to get 10+ of very heavy wet snow then I wouldn’t worry about the roof at all.

  57. Mark, thanks for sharing the satellite image. That’s a thing of beauty. I remember a similar satellite image on the 19th of March 2014, which showed ALL of New England having at least an inch of snow cover. Truly amazing. Not going to happen anytime soon. Last year was close by the way, but many south coastal areas, including the islands, had lost their snow.

    1. Yes, and this thing looks like it intensifies in the Gulf of Maine to produce a monster hit in most of New Brunswick.

  60. JR on Channel 7 posted a revised snow map.

    Outer Cape: 3-5″
    Mid-Upper Cape, South Coast, South of Boston: 5-8″
    North Coast, Down through Boston, South of Pike and on down to RI: 3-5″
    Boston: 3-4″
    Outside 495 to Worcester: 2″

    I could easily see this changing by 6 AM.

  62. The storm that refused to be predicted on the first try, second try, third try….fourth try…. by anybody……… anywhere……………

      1. I’ll get some Michigan State jerseys for them. I hear there are plenty to go around. 😉

  67. The variety in the weather models still, but we have seen a shift back to a moderate snowfall in many of the models. I wonder if the EURO was bullied into changing its mind.
    gfs 10-1 ratio
    http://pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=GFS&p=acc10snow&rh=2016031918&fh=72&r=ne&dpdt= (jack pot area southeast mass.) 6+ eastern mass

    GFS Kuchera ratio
    http://pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=GFS&p=accsnow&rh=2016031918&fh=90&r=ne&dpdt= ( Jackpot interior southeast mass) 5+ eastern Mass. (less on the cape)

    GGEM 10-1 ratio (Jackpot over areas east of i95 specifically just south of Boston) Looks like ocean enhancement???) Most see 8+
    http://pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=GGEM&p=acc10snow&rh=2016031918&fh=90&r=ne&dpdt=

    GGEM Kuchera ratio
    http://pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=GGEM&p=accsnow&rh=2016031912&fh=96&r=ne&dpdt= (Jackpot actually east of springfield in south central Mass area. Most see 7 inches or more.

    Canadian http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2016031912&fh=48&xpos=0&ypos=351

    WRF-ARW ( shows 5+ ) with more to come
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=wrf-arw&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2016031912&fh=48&xpos=0&ypos=679

    NavGEM and JMA are some what similar with the NavGEM being more robust if I am looking at it correctly. JMA shows about .75 to 1 inch which translates to about 7 to 12 inch range. NavGEM comes in about 5 or 6MB stronger so I think would show a bit more across eastern sections.

    EURO
    http://i.imgur.com/Xbd08HH.jpg

    Nam4KM
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam4km&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2016031918&fh=54&xpos=0&ypos=65

    Nam12K
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2016031918&fh=54&xpos=0&ypos=566

    So throw a Dot and win a prize 😛

  68. Mike Wainkum’s snow map:

    Boston 3-6″
    Worcester 2-4″
    Plymouth Co./South Shore 4-7″
    Cape & Islands 2-4″

  72. So I’ve scheduled visits for the Marlboro/grafton/Weston areas on Wednesday. What do u think tk? Every client was ready for visits.

  74. Charlie people don’t care about how many visits you have scheduled. It’s the only thing you post about, for once live in the moment. My gosh you never stop.

  75. HRRR and RAP are both east compared to NAM. If they were extrapolated, biggest totals would be around the canal, very similar to what NWS Boston has as their map now.

  76. Boston will not be in the jackpot zone that is reserved for down here on the south shore. 12+ in boston is way over done on the Nam in my opinion. It’s Also looking to start later at night vs the afternoon as I heard earlier maybe midnight now I think.

  77. Temp profiles are a little cooler closer to Boston so jackpot probably will be right around the city, just south and just north.

  78. Jackpot will be south of Boston . Where depends on where the heaviest bands set up
    ooz gfs went east

        1. I understand what you said south of Boston . It’s called the south shore . I’m thinking from Weymouth down higher numbers . Probably more here though than Weymouth.

  81. Everyone cranky tonight. I guess this storm has done it to us.

    I wonder how much the Euro changes, if at all.

    RGEM keeps bulk south of city. 4KM NAm unloads on us.
    GFS is a wimp. I dunno. It’s going to snow, how much is the question.

    Btw I almost fell off my chair when I heard Wankum say that a POWERFUL Nor’Easter will be heading up the coast. ROTFLMAO!!!!!!
    Then he says 3-6 inches with that oh so powerful Nor’easter. 😀 😀 😀

    Now it very well may end up powerful yet. We shall see.

    I’d say 5-8 in the City. We shall see.

    2. Not I. I’m in a great mood. Life is good! I’m up on Zion watching the Bruins with 2 of my favorite people. 🙂 Checking out model output. Etc.

      2. I noticed that you correctly stated not I. Along the way, you took notice in English class and it shows in your blog posts. 😀

        1. There is a tree up here with 4 of those cardboard drink trays in the lower branches. GUILTY.

  83. This has been a true lesson in Computer Models vs Mother Nature. Mother Nature is my top seed / top bracket. Computer Models are an also ran.

  85. Good morning all. Looks like game on with the storm. 6z NAM and RGEM have 5-10″ for eastern ct, Eastern ma, and RI with highest amounts south of Boston. GFS is more like 4-7″.

    Heading up to Okemo today with my son for one last day of skiing. Still 60 trails open! Will check in later!

    1. Indeed and the UKMET is down as well with .6 to .8 qpf

      I’m still liking my 5-8 inches from last night.

      We’ll see if there are any changes with the 12Z runs.

      It now appears that the american and Canadian are full steam ahead, while
      the Euro and Ukmet has backed off some. Btw, JMA looks pretty robust as well. 😀

    1. Indeed and the UKMET is down as well with .6 to .8 qpf

      I’m still liking my 5-8 inches from last night.

      We’ll see if there are any changes with the 12Z runs.

      It now appears that the american and Canadian are full steam ahead, while
      the Euro and Ukmet has backed off some. Btw, JMA looks pretty robust as well.

      FWIW, the HRRR appears to be fully on board with some serious snow.

  88. Updated blog!
    Just a note .. I started conservative with snow amounts, and generalized, and have left the door open for more, so updates will be coming.

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