1:38PM
I think the fact that the clouds and cool air are so stubborn here in eastern New England may prevent showers and storms from reaching most areas at least through the early evening. The atmosphere cannot destabilize now that one disturbance is gone, another is yet to arrive, and we don’t have very much sun.
The rest of this message is a copy/edit of the previous forecast:
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON: Cloudy to partly sunny. Temperatures holding in the 60s, coolest near the shore. Wind variable up to 10 mph.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms until midnight, then breaking clouds. Low 60 to 65. Wind variable to W around 10 mph.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. High 75 to 80 but cooler in some coastal areas. Wind W to N 5 to 15 mph but some local coastal sea breezes.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 59. High 83.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. PM showers. Low 61. High 80.
WEDNESDAY: AM showers. PM clearing. Low 64. High 83.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 59. High 81.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 83.
Thanks again TK for the update. This morning shortly before 9:00 am the sun peaked out here in Boston (Dorchester) and I actually saw “shadows” for the first time in days, but a minute later the clouds filled right back in and have dominated ever since. Even though it is “mostly cloudy” the sky isn’t nearly as dark and gloomy as it has been. I am very much looking forward to lots of sun tomorrow. It is going to be strange seeing blue sky and my shadow.
Also Barry hinted at 90’s and HHH for July 4th weekend, do you agree with him TK?
Based on what I looked at SO far I find it hard to agree with Barry, but that said, I have seen some horrendous medium range forecasts lately, so the fact the computers are not strongly indicating what Barry hinted at doesn’t mean much at this point.
Many times in the past we have come out of the kind of pattern we’re in right now into one that features HHH. Also, if past trends on the GFS indicate, when the July 4 weekend was near the end of the forecast period, it was showing very summery weather, it has since lost that as the weekend is in the middle of its forecast period. That trend often leads to it returning in the shorter range then making the model run when it was way out end up verifying. I wonder if Barry isn’t employing that logic at the moment. It seems to work both in summer & winter.
Just looked at the latest CPC outlook and it is somewhat disturbing. The good news is normal to above normal temps but the bad news is well above normal rainfall. This includes the July 4th Weekend.
I certainly hope the precip outlook changes considerably.
the CPC outlook isn’t consistent at all, so i wouldn’t put too much stock into that.
the NAO outlook seems to stay negative throughout the next few weeks, possible dipping even further.
The real start of a consistent summer type weather pattern seems so far away…
From a quick glance at the 12z EURO, the days leading up to July 4th could be a bit unsettled, but July 4th seemed to show improving conditions, of course this is many days out.
12z GFS does not indicate 90 on July 4th at all, with a area of low pressure right over us.
The few minutes of sunshine today felt incredible, but were short lived.
I wouldn’t mind a HHH day after these hideous past could of days.
sorry if my thoughts are a bit scrambled.
Sun is out, in full force, in Marshfield…beautiful !! Enjoying the discussion above about the future weather and the potential for heat. I noticed today that the outlook for the NAO went more towards staying slightly negative. A day or two ago, by the first week of July, the forecast was for neutral or slightly positive.
Vis satellite is looking promising, currently seeing some blue sky and a weak sun trying to shine through the breaks.
Tomorrow is going to feel so good with all that sunshine.
I havnt been following the model trends lately, so I’m not going to even attempt making a prediction this far out. School is out, so I may aim to nail down a solid forecast for July 4th, and hoping it verifys. Would be some good practice 🙂
Sum has been out in framingham for a while. We were in belmnot and it came out full force there around 5. Storms west of us looked to be falling apart last I checked.
A cluster/line of mod-hvy rain is crossing central mass as of 8:44. it should be interesting to see how it reacts to the more stable air mass closer to the coast. nevertheless just a heads up.
Thankfully no severe weather happening but flood advisories up for parts of SNE. Biggest threat is downpours with this line.
Finally the thunderstorm index tomorrow will be at a 0 since no thunderstorms are in the forecast and could take a break till sometime in the Tuesday Wednesday period.
On Barry’s evening blog, the July 4th weekend could go either way…HHH with 90 degree temps or a backdoor cold front with chilly temps especially along the coast (where else?). Living here in Boston, I could handle the chill for the 4th I guess as long as it’s at least partly sunny with no rain. Pretty much this spring and now into the start of summer an onshore wind has produced nothing but damp conditions.
More bad news for now at least is that Mike Wankum this evening is hinting at rain for next Sunday. A couple of days ago the NWS hinted at unsettled conditions as well for Sunday, but have backed off recently by having dry conditions into Saturday but now going no further in time…not a good sign IMO. 🙁
That will change so many times that I would not worry about right now for the 4th of July weekend. I hope the The Farmers’ Almanac continue their great accuraccy they claim is wrong because they are calling violent thunderstorms from July 1st-3rd.
I don’t want to see that happen here or anywhere.
The vis satellite as of 10:20 isn’t looking very promising for full sunshine.
Also today has a much muggier feel.
Spent the day at York Beach Maine. Great weather, in comparision to the past few days! Sunshine was out for a good part of the time from 11AM to 3PM as the low clouds vanished and just some variable high clouds came in from the west. Later afternoon was dominated by more middle clouds and less sun, but by that time we were in the arcade. Temps a bit cool – near 70, but not so bad compared to the upper 50s of recent times!
New blog is up!