Sunday Forecast

308 Comments

7:44AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 20-24)…
The Vernal Equinox, the astronomical start of Spring, occurred at 12:30AM. But you know that doesn’t mean too much with regards to weather. It snows in Spring here, and this will be proven nicely in just a matter of hours. Today, I’ll spare you the long editorials and just say that the various array of computer models, which have had so much difficulty putting the pieces of this atmospheric puzzle together, have finally come to some kind of agreement, and for the meteorologists that survived the process, we have a reasonable feel for what is going to transpire as a complex low pressure system tries to get organized as it tracks northeastward, passing not too far southeast of southern New England by early Monday. Yes there will be some rain involved somewhere, and there will be a variation in snowfall amounts based on whether or not any rain occurs and the location of heaviest snow bands associated with the strengthening system. The expected results of this will be reflected in the forecast that follows. Brief cold is expected to linger behind the storm, and then the transition back toward milder air begins anew by midweek, marked by another period of unsettled weather as a warm front moves in but struggles to move through.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s. Wind light N to NE.
TONIGHT: Clouding over. Snow developing south to north, may mix with rain Nantucket and outer Cape Cod. Lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s.
MONDAY: Overcast with snow tapering off from west to east morning, still may be mixed with rain outer Cape Cod and Nantucket, then clearing during the afternoon. Snow accumulation 3-6 inches in most areas, but a few locations in central MA to southwestern NH may see under 3 inches, as could outer Cape Cod and Nantucket, and a few locations south of Boston may see greater than 6 inches. Highs in the 30s. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH interior, 15-30 MPH coast, strongest Cape Cod, with higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows from the middle 10s to lower 20s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty. Wind chill near to below 10 at times.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of light rain/mix. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 40s.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain showers. Lows in the 30s. Highs 45-55.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 25-29)…
Push of warmer air now looks brief March 25 and may be accompanied by rain showers as a cold front approaches. Back and forth weather for the remainder of the period with fair weather March 26, unsettled March 27-28, and fair again March 29.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 30-APRIL 3)…
Progressive pattern. Frequent temperature changes and precipitation threats.

308 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  1. TK,

    I am not a big-time poster here, but this is where I go to get a great straight-forward weather prediction (and an occasional laugh).

    Thanks for all you do!

  2. Good morning and thank you TK. Some re-posts from earlier

    JP Dave says:
    March 20, 2016 at 7:45 AM
    Latest NWS snow map, 5:50 Am today

    https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xap1/v/t1.0-9/1936685_969816853112686_8977647860866760453_n.png?oh=8bcb47a6c3b918171598ac5fd928e2a5&oe=578A3AC9
    Reply
    JP Dave says:
    March 20, 2016 at 7:46 AM
    Indeed and the UKMET is down as well with .6 to .8 qpf

    I’m still liking my 5-8 inches from last night.

    We’ll see if there are any changes with the 12Z runs.

    It now appears that the american and Canadian are full steam ahead, while
    the Euro and Ukmet has backed off some. Btw, JMA looks pretty robust as well.

    FWIW, the HRRR appears to be fully on board with some serious snow.
    Reply

  3. Thanks TK
    6z NAM more aggressive than 6z GFS. Have to watch for any slight shifts east or west which will make a big difference.

    1. There is certainly much better model agreement, but there are still some
      differences. It concerns me that the Euro is not so robust and a bit more
      off shore than others. That “could” be the key and perhaps part of the reason
      TK is at 3-6 inches. IF it were not for that run, I would think 6-10 would be
      a better number. I know it is getting awfully close, but I am wondering if
      the Euro shows a bit more of a robust run fro 12Z??? We shall see.

    1. ECMWF wants redemption. 😉
      I also think we may not be doing seeing changes…

      1. The only thing that gives me pause to jump on the higher totals
        band wagon. Well not actually, as the GFS is line with the Euro as well.

        SO in moderation we have the Euro and GFS with about 5 or 6 inches.

        Then we have all of the others with upwards of close to a foot.
        That’s some real disparity.

        I will add that the HRRR seems to jump on the more snow
        band wagon.

        Anyone know what the RPG says for this event? 😀

  6. If anyone can stand it, here comes an array of snow maps:

    4KM NAM

    http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/namhires/20160320/06Z/f60/acckucherasnowne.png

    32KM NAM

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160320/06Z/f60/acckucherasnowne.png

    GFS

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160320/06Z/f060/acckucherasnowne.png

    CMC or GGEM

    http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160320/00Z/f066/acckucherasnowne.png

    All of the above uses the Kuchera snow algorithm

      1. You misunderstood. I am actually at 5-8 at the moment, subject to review after the 12Z runs.

        When I said 6-10, I said that would be a good number IF
        one discounted the Euro. Not sure that is a good idea though.

        😀

  7. Thanks TK!
    Good morning and Happy Spring!
    I am enjoying a hot cup ‘a java in my sunroom this morning while listening to the honking of several Canadian geese accompanied by loud chirping from a nearby bird’s nest. Oh! how I love Spring, even when it snows 🙂

  8. Somehow this epic piece by Alan Parsons Project fits right about now…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pgY7qYaoMWQ

    Tracks 1, 2, and 5 are the angelic voice of Christopher Rainbow.
    Track 3 is instrumental.
    Track 4 is the recognizable voice of Project co-founder, Eric Woolfson, who did vocals for the hits “Time”, “Don’t Answer Me”, and “Eye In The Sky”.

  9. TK you said we may not be doing see changes.
    What does your gut tell you will snowfall amounts have to be increased or lowered?

    2. I just think minor changes from here but a few specific areas may change a bit more than that. I’m thinking trimming on both southeastern and northwestern sides may take place…

    1. This has been so up and down, in and out, I can’t stand it.

      However, at this point, I think you are incorrect.

      Are you home or up North? Hope you can enjoy it in person.

      1. Not sure if to have me confused with someone else (home or up North?) but I am in Woburn…TK can spy on me from Zion if he so chooses.

        1. Oh sorry about that. Yes, in my mind I get you
          and WxWatcher mixed up. My bad.

          I still think you are incorrect, however. 😀

          1. Perhaps…just not sold on it. All the wildlife around me doesn’t seem worried if that matters ha. Guess tomorrow when I wake up and look out my window will be the big test. Well that and the plows that might wake me up all night.

            1. 5 inches just won’t cut it when it comes
              to the office closing for the day.

              We shall see. Waiting on 12Z runs. 😀

    2. Is that because you arrived at this conclusion by analysis, or just because that what you want?

      Just be honest, that’s all we want to know. 😀

      1. Totally what I want. Also my Magic 8 Ball has confirmed it three times in a row. Given how models have been, it’s on par 🙂

        1. Make it four times in a row…may as well bust out the lawn mower now

          “Will this storm fizzle out oh wise and mighty 8 Ball”

          (Vigorous shake)

          “It is certain”

  13. Thank you, TK.

    What a beautiful late winter morning. I count my blessings with days like these.

  14. Then there is the world famous Longshot Model which predicts a slightly track between now and the 12Z & 18Z runs.

  15. I’m glad any snow is holding off until well into tonight, I’ll be traveling back to NH today. My traveling force field of snow repellant 🙂

    Even down here though, I suspect most places come in under 6″. We needed the deeper storm scenario to really have a shot at a classic late season thumping. I’ll say 4.5″ for Boston.

  17. Philip, I’m not TK and don’t have weather forecasting skills. But, I can say that there’s still plenty of cold in eastern Canada the coming 2 to 3 weeks, according to model guidance. Plus, there’s a sizable snow-pack in Quebec. While any air coming down from Canada modifies quite a bit by the time it gets here this time of year, I do see several more attempts at Canadian border incursions (springlovers might want to build a wall). Coupled with a fairly active pattern of disturbances, I see multiple snow threats in northern and central NE. Several will likely materialize, especially in the higher elevations. Southern NE is a different story. Threats exist, yes, but their chances of materializing in the form of snow rather than cold rain are small.

    1. Thanks for your input Joshua. I wouldn’t be surprised if that is TK’s thoughts as well. 🙂

    2. This is an adjustment that should be made. I think we’re getting close to what will actually happen now over most areas.

  24. If I was forced to pick a model snowfall and “go with it” right now, it’s be the 12z 4km NAM. I don’t think it snows long enough to really get anyone into double digits. But there will be a healthy punch of accumulating snow associated with this. Ultimately, the winter weather threat we have all been following now for 2 weeks or more, for the Vernal Equinox, is about to verify. All the model jerkiness and other details aside, is it not remarkable that this science is able to identify such threats so far in advance? I don’t mean me, personally, I just mean meteorology in general. With all the uncertainty, we can find some hint of something to grasp onto and learn from.

  27. As “menacing” as the satellite picture looks and as “wimpy” as the radar loop looks right now, I assure you none of this is a surprise. The clouds that look like they are charging in will largely fail in doing so and sun will probably be dominant well into afternoon and may only lose the battle over far southern areas later today. Boston may see at least partial sun right up to near sunset. Right after that a renewed charge of clouds comes up south to north ahead of developing low pressure #2, after #1 slips out to the south during the day.

  29. Bust is coming…waking up to green grass tomorrow. Anyone with me (Charlie is automatically entered ha)

    2. WeatherWiz’s Keys To Waking Up To Green Grass

      1) Dream.
      2) Lie to yourself.
      3) Put up a small open shelter to catch falling snow and leave a bare spot underneath, then pretend that it covers the entire yard
      4) Indulge in your favorite beverage a little too much (but do not drive after!).
      5) Keep dreaming.
      6) Book a plane ticket to Antigua on a flight that leaves before 00z.

      😀

      1. Haha. We shall see who has the last laugh tomorrow. It’s you and your wisdom and technology vs my made in China Magic 8 Ball.

    1. Not sure who’s in. They are keyed in on the jackpot area. For me that may be a little “over-coverage” but the overall idea isn’t bad. I just think the greater than 6 areas will be more limited than the swath they show.

    2. I was going to ask how you went from a “salt storm” to 5 inches so quickly? 😉

  32. My general idea of snowfall region wide is depicted nicely in the latest HRRR experimental model.

    1. Just remember, that was as of 12Z tomorrow. There may be a couple of more
      inches added onto that. 😀

  33. Notice that all the TV mets have ranges of up to 8″+.

    TK, is more than 8″ realistic in any given area even on the South Shore where banding could occur? The real accumulating snow is no more than 6-8 hours, maybe more like 5-6 hours. It is just not going to snow long enough for double-digit totals IMO.

    1. Can’t rule it out. I figure absolute max is about 10 inches in any jackpot zone and that would be an area that snows longest, gets under the heaviest band including under its pivot zone, and benefits from a second surge of accumulating snow that comes between 7 and 10 tomorrow morning.

  34. What’s up with the GFS?????

    It’s 12:11 and still nothing. We should have out to hour 72 or so by now????

  36. From NWS at 10:26 AM

    06Z MODELS…AND THE NEW 12Z NAM…CONTINUE TO SHOW A WIDESPREAD
    SWATH OF 6 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA…FROM BOSTON
    AND PROVIDENCE TO THE CAPE COD CANAL…WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
    TOWARD THE CANAL. WE HAVE UPPED THE SNOWFALL FORECAST ON THIS
    PACKAGE TO INCLUDE CLOSE TO 10 INCHES FOR THE AREA FROM FALL RIVER TO PLYMOUTH…JUST NORTH OF THE CAPE COD CANAL. OTHERWISE…WILL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS UNTIL ALL GUIDANCE IS EVALUATED THIS AFTERNOON.

  39. I guess we enter another OFF phase? 😀 😀 😀

    Now I’m thinking Euro comes in with 2-3 inches only. Perhaps the HRRR is correct
    today?

    1. GFS not as reliable inside 36 hours anyway. Model not built for very short range. Go with the short range guidance now and the higher resolution NAM.

        1. Those models are only coming down into the range that should have been expected with this thing. Double digit snows with a system like this are virtually impossible unless it’s mid Winter.

    2. Here’s the problem:

      748
      NOUS42 KWNO 201518
      ADMNFD

      748
      NOUS42 KWNO 201518
      ADMNFD

      SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
      NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
      1515Z SUN MAR 20 2016

      THE 12Z GFS WILL BE DELAYED DUE TO A PROBLEM WITH PRE-PROCESSING BEFORE THE MODEL ANALYSIS STARTED. NCO SUPPORT STAFF ARE WORKING ON THE ISSUE. NO ESTIMATE ON THE LENGTH OF DELAY YET AVAILABLE HOWEVER WE ARE AT LEAST 30 MINUTES BEHIND SCHEDULE AS OF NOW.

      HANDEL/SDM/NCO/NCEP

      HANDEL/SDM/NCO/NCEP

    2. There is not a huge back-off going on. They are adjusting off the top #’s which would have been too high anyway. The range in the forecast above is still the most likely one.

  42. Looks like yet another storm in which the South Shore wins the jackpot. This jackpot may only be 6 inches or so, but still. It’s been an extended period of South Shore jackpots, going back to 2013-2014. `Law’ of averages suggests that predominant track will change at some point in the next few years, and bring the heavy snows to where they `normally’ are out in central and western Massachusetts.

    1. and interior northeast Mass, Been finding more snowfall happening to the south and east of the area.

    2. This season’s pattern supported exactly what we have seen happen. And last year’s did as well, just for different reasons entirely.

  43. Somehow in all of this I have managed to go from an initial majority call of 4-8 (lower NW and far SE with heavier pockets) to a majority call of 3-6 (lower NW and far SE with heavier pockets southeastern MA). I guess playing Mr. Wimp Forecaster has at least the benefit of not making me look really indecisive and model-worshiping. 😉

    1. Did someone say something to you? Haven’t been following too closely. You’ve been really good.

          1. Noooooooooooooo I coined it myself. It has to do with the fact that I tend to wait longer than many met’s before putting up #’s and I don’t change my forecast every time each model comes out. 😀

            1. And that – in a nutshell – is why I come here. Great job as always TK – thank you!

  44. Tk it’s time for your numbers . Salt storm was going by yesterday’s am run when we all had this way, way down. Still think boston is not in the jackpot zone as I said last night that is reserved for down here

      1. GFS is essentially the same as its previous run, but it was in a good place already.

    1. ECMWF model also NOT built for short range (inside 48 hours). My colleagues say don’t give it much weight.

      1. Not later? I was thinking closer to 9 for the south and 11 for the north but you no waaaaaaaaaaaaay better than me 😀

        2. Well I did say “after 7” not “at 7” .. so the idea is the same. I’m allowing for some advanced flakes or that phantom band that suddenly forms ahead of the main area. We’ve seen it. 😀

  49. Still going with the HRRR. Never was impressed with this storm. Certainly never thought double digits would be realized anywhere. Storm is too progressive and just a tad east for a blockbuster. 3-6 inches just about covers it east for 495 to just about the canal. 4 inches Boston, 6 inches Plymouth.

  50. I can assure you, the only “bust” that can occur now is if the ENTIRE area gets under 3 inches and the majority of the region does not get plowable snow. Anything else is not a bust. As a meteorologist and part of the group of people who created and refined the term, at least as it relates to forecasting, this is the way it is. 😀

      1. It should probably be delay at worst, but would a cancellation surprise me? Not really. We already know they err on the side of caution these days for fear of being sued, and they haven’t really used any snow days anyway.

        1. Yeah was worried since they only used 3 and have 5 factored in they would just give it to them.

          1. I don’t think they’d end up using more than possibly one more between March 30 and April 1.

  51. I would expect many delays but very few cancellations if any of schools tomorrow morning. According to Dave Epstein this morning, the roads should recover quickly due to higher sun angle and snowfall diminishing. Not to mention that the sun should come out by early afternoon, if not sooner.

    1. The thing is, they look early morning and see what it’s like then, and the school commute is during and shortly after sunrise, so yes by afternoon it’ll be easy, but the morning may be much worse in some areas. To me, that’s reason for delay, not cancellation, but not all superintendents will agree with me.

  52. should have stated on my snow map to expect the lower end of the ranges with the highest across interior southeast mass.

      1. I’m leaning toward tightening up my ranges in an update soon which might put us in a 2-4 and leave a 4-6 band not too far to the southeast. Thinking about it… I’m not going to get this exactly right. There are always areas that come in less and some that come in a little more. My aim is to have those as few as possible.

          1. 3-4 airport, 4-5 inner city, bit less on pavements, and virtually all of the accumulation is after midnight, especially after 2AM.

  54. I think if NWS took their “at least this much” map and combined it with their “most likely” map, they’ll end up with a pretty accurate forecast map. Forget the “maximum”. Not happening. Never was happening. 😛

    I also still like Boston to Providence for your maximum belt of snow accumulation. Watch for one synoptic band that lingers Monday morning beyond everything else.

      1. I tried. The phone just kept ringing then got knocked off the hook at which time I didn’t hear discussions about weather, but basketball…

        😉
        J/K of course

  55. Wow! NWS is quite bullish. Here is their latest for Winter Storm Warning:

    1100 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016

    …WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
    TO 11 AM EDT MONDAY…

    * LOCATIONS…SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AS WELL AS RHODE ISLAND.
    THIS INCLUDES THE BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE METROPOLITAN AREAS.

    * HAZARD TYPES…HEAVY WET SNOW.

    * ACCUMULATIONS…SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES…WITH THE
    HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST TOWARD THE CAPE COD CANAL.

  56. Break over, back to work… Been assembling a new kitchen island. What a royal pain in the ass!! Have to be a combination engineer and architect!!! I’ll have to settle
    for mathematician. I think I can handle it. 😀

    1. LOL, we are renovating The (Office/Den) making it into my bedroom. Redoing the porch and completing the Patio. Then we will be combining two rooms upstairs for my parents new bedroom and making their current bedroom the new Dinning room…. My parents want this done in 2 years…

        1. My den, a.k.a. the WHW “office” is getting a reorganization soon. It’s kind of in progress now, but will go full swing soon. I love this room. I have windows on 3 sides (1 north, 1 south, 3 west), and I can see reasonably well out the east side by looking to my right through the kitchen and right out the big window on the east side of it. 😀

          I’m gaining more space in here and making it all weather and music. It’s going to be the HQ for the Woods Hill Internet Radio going online not long from now. 🙂

          4. How exciting. As you know, I LOVE Windows. Your room sounds ideal and now it is being improved. I love the idea of Internet radio.

          5. Love it! I was the GM for my high school radio station back in the day. Let me know if you need any classic rock DJ’s – I fall off the music knowledge cliff right before Nirvana but 60’s-early’90’s is my sweet spot. “Some people call me the space cowboy…”

  57. If I understood Dave Epstein correctly this morning, Boston hasn’t received a 6″+ spring snowfall since April Fool’s 1997. I find it interesting that we haven’t had any real snowstorms following the Vernal Equinox in nearly 20 years…and the streak is likely to continue through tomorrow morning.

    1. Most of the time the big Spring events are interior or elevation events. The coastal ones are fairly rare.

  58. I expect NWS to scale the NW area of the snow back slightly at any time now and possibly take the edge off the highest amounts to the southeast. This would be a wise move.

    1. As well they should. Should take down Winter Storm Warning and replace
      with Winter Weather Advisory while they are at it. This is NOT worthy of
      a Winter Storm Warning. It’s simply just not.

      1. They have to go by the #’s though, and if they have any range that includes what fits the criteria, they must issue one. This is the government we’re talking about here. 😀

  59. 18Z NAM is in. Back off some more. Heavy precip never gets in here, not that there
    is much heavy precip with this WIMPORAMA!

    Here is the non-snow map:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016032018&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=036

    This is about the best this WIMP can produce! WIMP! WIMP!

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2016032018&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=015

    I’d rather the damn thing went out to sea than to get a tease of snow.

    Go away and come back when you are all grown up!!

    1. NAM’s actually right in line with the forecast above. This is what is expected. This was never going to be a double-digit biggie.

    2. You wait and wait for snow and you’re getting maybe 5 inches of it tonight , how much is enough your getting the snow you should be excited . I can tell you I’m not .

  60. Today’s Accuweather Trivia Quiz.

    1. At 30 degrees, which time of the day would snow most likely accumulate the fastest?

    A. 5 AM
    B. 9 AM
    C. 3 PM
    D. Doesn’t matter

    2. Which of the following is the line of equal dew point?

    A. Isobar
    B. Isodrosotherm
    C. Isopleth
    D. Isotech

    Answers later today.

    3. 1
      E. Stupid question.What was the point of that?

      2
      Letting the non-met’s test their knowledge here. Not fair for me to answer it. 🙂

      3. Rather alarming then that I don’t even understand the question! Thanks for putting up with me WHW gang!

  61. 18Z HRRR operational.

    Composite radar for 8Z or with EST, that’s 4AM.

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2016032017/t3/cref_t3sfc_f15.png

    1 hour snowfall ending 8Z

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2016032017/t3/1hsnw_t3sfc_f15.png

    That’s a pretty good thump. Hmmm is the HRRR suddenly getting more bullish?

    Snowfall ending 8Z

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2016032017/t3/acsnw_t3sfc_f15.png

  62. There seems to be a discrepancy between the HRRR experimental and the operational.
    Now that the operational is in range, I’ll be only looking at that.
    Operational “appears” more bullish.

  63. Looking ahead beyond the imminent storm, did someone say it would get to 70F on Friday? I believe Barry Burbank and others said this. A met put the number 74F on the extended forecast, if I am not mistaken. I think that forecast, which included warm temperatures for Thursday, will be far off the mark. Personally, I wish they’d do away with 7 or 10 day forecasts on TV. The uncertainty rises significantly after day 5, and especially in spring.

    1. Warm front may never make it through here. I’m holding out for a very brief warm-up but that will be it.

      On the plus side, things may be progressive enough so that what I thought might be a nasty Easter Sunday may turn out quite nice.

    1. I mean maybe for low temps in Antigua, but certainly not for high temps here. 😉

  66. Good Friday may be a rainy day in the upper 40s to around 50, but as TK said Easter Sunday may be a nice spring day with some sunshine. But, I don’t think the chocolate Easter eggs will melt this year – the ones we had to find in baskets my mother would hide. I believe Easter 1970 was very hot, and all my chocolate eggs had melted by the time I found my basket. My mother went to the only store that was open that day (in Needham, the White Hen Pantry), and got me and my sister chocolate eggs.

    1. 1976 was the hottest of all. 94 high temp at Boston followed by a 96 high on Marathon Monday.

      1. Thanks, TK.

        I’m completely off with 1970. That was in fact a cold Easter. Just looked it up. So, it must have been 1971 or 72. Here’s where my memory used to be great, but is no longer.

          1. I wasn’t even 3 yet. I don’t remember. 😉

            Easter 1978 started with 1-2 inches of snow in the suburbs.

            1. I seem to remember Barry mentioning it on air over the years. I believe Boston received several inches. I don’t remember either. I was 9 years old.

            2. So you were born the same year as the White Album – ’68? Nice. I think I was a Wings baby – much to my chagrin….

              2. I might have been Vaughn Monroe or Perry Como baby. And you think you are chagrined 😉

                Where ya been? Hope having fun and nice to see you here 🙂

                1. Thanks Vicki! Hope you are well! Please thank Mac for giving us my dream winter. I usually only have a chance to read the blog at night – try to sneak in a comment here or there but posting at 11 pm on a 9am comment is a bit covert! (Scroll up to see my response to your trusty notebook as well as my offer of DJ services to TK Radio, Inc.). Glad to see TK came into the world the same year as my handle!

    1. Too early to decide in this case. But you can reason with that type of mindset. I suppose they’ve hardly used any snow days, so no big deal regarding that anyway.

      1. They probably had to make a decision at this time with many parents (even 2-parent families) having to work and need to make arrangements. It will be interesting if other districts follow.

      2. I think Boston and other big towns and cities are in a class of their own. Too many families with day care or kids who head to the bus at a very early hour.

      1. Not necessarily. I know the superintendent. He sometimes chats with adjacent towns but he doesn’t use Boston as a guide.

            1. The only reason I asked was because of your comment above. Sometimes Tom doesn’t like too many snow days since they have to be made up if the allotment is used up.

            2. You should teach a class on snow removal, especially from roofs and driveways/walks. 😉

              1. Man roof raking is the worst but it gets twice as bad when you run into a hip roof as its four sides instead of two.

  69. Framingham tends to go with neighboring towns but can stand alone as far as not cancelling. It has come back to bite them several times as there have been problems. Wayland is the one town that literally never cancelled. Lately it got wiser also. Except parents tore it apart for the one where most every town cancelled. So it cancelled for the next which was the bust storm.

    Me…and I know I’ve said it…you absolutely cannot take chances with kids

  70. Medium range and weeklies are in pretty good agreement. COLD early April. The bottom may fall out for a few days in there somewhere.

  72. Yeah I wasn’t expecting it this early. I just think it may have a hard time getting in here up this way.

  73. GettingBetterAllTheTime…
    Love that song. Love that album. I was born just before the “Summer Of Love” and I think I was an accident. 4 older brothers all born in a 7 year span, then a 6 year gap, and THEN me… OOPS! I was also the only one (of 5 boys) born with dutch boy blonde hair and blue green eyes. Hmmm…

    1. TK – I believe the resulting questions raised might help us coin a new acronym at WHW – namely NSFT – “Not Suitable For Thanksgiving”. But perhaps look into whether your parents were living in the Haight Circa ’66? Also I might be suspicious of any uncanny musical or literary ability you have that is not shared by your siblings…

      I have no such cool back story. I am a Korean export imported to a Mass family in ’76. My friends gave me a greatest hits of ’76 album for my 40th and – well – let’s just say it was no summer of love…more disco meets soul meets Barry Manilow – so basically a musical train wreck in slow motion ;-). You got Cream, I got Kiki Dee, and KC and the Sunshine Band – LOL!

      1. Well, I do own Barry Manilow’s Greatest Hits, had a huge crush on Kiki Dee, learned the drum solo to the song “Toad” by Cream, and went to see KC and the Sunshine Band at Hampton Beach for free a few years ago. 😉

        1. Got a huge sigh from me with the drum solo…I have always had a weakness for them. In a gadda da vida still gives me chills

        2. Well rounded musical taste I’d say! Then I should ‘fess up that my first 45 was Gloria Gaynor “I Will Survive” and my first full length LP was “Last Dance.” And Copa Cabana always gets my juices flowing.

          There goes my cool cat cover – thank goodness I’m among friends. My history of Jazz teacher Bobby Bradford would be so disappointed…

          1. TK has the most well rounded musical taste of anyone I know

            My first 45 was Andy Williams Can’t get used to losing you and my first album was Bobby vee. My music ends with the 70s…except country

            1. Having grown up to ’80’s and ’90’s I can assure you you didn’t miss a thing!

              1. My kids grew up in those years. Each decade in this country is amazing….well, not so sure about our mess now but think we will figure a way out.

  74. Answers to Today’s Accuweather Trivia Quiz.

    1. At 30 degrees, which time of the day would snow most likely accumulate the fastest?

    A. 5 AM
    B. 9 AM
    C. 3 PM
    D. Doesn’t matter

    The correct answer is A, but to TK’s point I’m not sure of the value/importance of the question. One thing for sure the TV met … is it Dave or Dennis on BZ? … gave a convoluted explanation for the answer.

    2. Which of the following is the line of equal dew point?

    A. Isobar
    B. Isodrosotherm
    C. Isopleth
    D. Isotech

    The correct answer is B.

      1. I still don’t understand the questions – LOL! Lots of learning to do here…

  76. Getting Better…or should I say Maurice….I will thank Mac. Glad you are reading. Your comments continue to make me smile. Enjoy the storm!

    1. You as well! We lurkers do submerge from time to time but we are never far…

  77. What model do pirates prefer for their info?

    The H-Arrr-Arrr-Arrrrrrr!

    The 23z version of the HRRR is spitting out snowfall similar to the #’s in my post. Still going to adjust a little bit soon but no big changes coming.

  81. Antigua is in the zone they say. But everyone says Hugo in 95 was the last BIG ONE. That hit Charleston

          1. No hmmm. That’s when it was, Charlie. It also cut a path up to Charlotte NC where there were tornadoes and considerable damage

            2. I want doubting you vicki that’s what the cab driver said, but. 1989 is right . I’m in Antigua, and unfortunatley my wife has a severe ear ache, had to call hotel Doctor, and now staying till wed afternoon.

              1. I can’t believe anyone who was part of Hugo doesn’t remember the year. Very odd. Hope your wife feels better

        2. My in laws had retired to Mt Pleasant SC. That is a mile as the crow flies from Isle of Palms which was heavily damaged. Oakland quake was that year also

  82. I am sticking with my map
    the one on the left was my first map. One on the right is what I am thinking , also towards the lower end of the ranges

  83. The back edge is at Ocean City Maryland. Well I guess the storm’s over! 😉

  84. The first batch coming through RI into eastern MA is the primer. This one will moisten up alot of the dry air at mid and low levels and set the stage for the real stuff a couple hours behind that.

  85. Just a friendly reminder since on my social media pages I see so many people reacting like the end of the world is imminent. I realize that many sources now make every single low pressure system into the apocalypse, so I remind you we’re not really tracking a major snowstorm here. We’re tracking a storm that is going to bring light to moderate snowfall amounts to a good portion of the region, with short-lived significant impact but no long lasting impact. We’re not looking at astronomical snow amounts but I think this has been outlined enough to this point. It’s an end-of-winter / start-of-spring snow/mix event, significant in that it will make for a messy AM commute and has forced some school schedule alterations, but we’re going to survive this one quite unscathed when it’s all said and done. So, don’t be disappointed if you’re in a 2-4 inch snow band forecast and you get the 2 inches instead of the 4.

    Ok, back to your regularly scheduled whatever you were up to… 😉

    1. Not of the CFC Weeklies and GFS / Euro ensembles are right. Early April could be interesting. 🙂

  88. John watching the snow fall I was thinking this could be the last time I see snow until next winter.
    Can’t wait to start tracking thunderstorms.

  89. This was a disappointing winter if your a snow lover like me. They all can’t be snowy and hopefully next winter will be different.

    1. Contrary to my earlier thinking, we may be lacking snow next Winter as well, but not lacking cold.

      1. Tk no disrespect at all but isn’t it a little early to make that statement . And we usually don’t have two back to back winters the same is that correct . Well I’ll be reporting from home my wife is sick and my son spent the entire day in the emergency room so a little crazy here.

        2. It’s not too early to make a statement if you have decent science to back it up. We’ll go into that later…

          We can have 2 winters in a row that are similar, but next winter would be not all that much like this one.

          Hope all is well soon with the family!

    1. Things are finally getting mostly into line, as far as guidance in the short range goes, for this event.

  91. The signals for cold in early April are pretty remarkable. I think it’s funny. 😀

  96. Snowing decently now. ALL the grass and cars and roofs are totally and completely
    covered. 😀

  99. Looking down the road would not surprise me at all if this is not the last measurable amount of snow this winter. I do think it’s the last real storm, but I’m willing to put money on Boston getting more than just a trace of snow in early April.

    Nice to see the flakes fly outside.

    Goodnight, everyone.

  101. Looking out my 5th floor hospital room at South Shore Hospital, for which I can see a long ways, there’s a nice misty snow falling that has thickly coated the grassy areas, but the pavements look to be mostly wet.

    For those who aren’t Facebook friends with me, it ended up that my chest discomfort that I went back to the doctor for Saturday was not bronchitis or pneumonia. Instead, an EKG came out showing reduced blood flow to my heart when compared to a healthier baseline EKG from 3 to 4 years ago.

    So, I ended up having them go into my heart, by way of the artery in my right wrist and when they got there, they found 2 healthy arteries and 1 diseased artery that was 99% blocked. They opened it up with a stent and balloon. I feel a world better since the procedure and the goal is to get to go home later today. And as Paul Harvey used to say, “Now you know the rest of the story”.

    1. Tom, I am a FB friend and somehow I missed this. Thank God that you acted promptly. I’m so glad to hear that the procedure was a success but what a scare for you and your family. My thoughts and prayers are with you. Big hugs too.

      1. Thanks Vicki, yes it was a definite scary moment Saturday afternoon. They had an ambulance on standby ready to head to Boston should they have found all the arteries blocked for a bypass procedure and thank goodness it didn’t come to that.

        I’ve already been on cholesterol meds for a handful of years and I think the plan is to further adjust, but I can make a huge impact by eating better foods as I take a lot of responsibility for this blockage to have developed over time. So, I think with better eating and the meds, I have a good chance in preventing a reoccurrence.

  103. NOT IMPRESSED with the snow at all..
    Wimporama for sure. Maybe 2 inches
    Out there, maybe. Still snowing decently here but radar beginning to look pathetic.

    1. Well….maybe radar not so bad afer all.
      Looked at nexrad and NYC city nexrad.
      Looks like there is plenty to go yet

      Perhaps boston can still make it to
      30 inches.

      BTW watched Harvey last night.
      Re: Friday. He said 49
      So what happened to 74???
      He he he.

      This time of year, when in 40s and even
      50s it can still snow sometimes.

    1. Yup, something like that, perhaps a tad more even. NWS says along Coast could linger to early PM. We shall see.

  106. Tk said ealry April “could” be interesting.

    Look ahead, watch around April 1st and again around the 4th. 😀

  107. It looks like boston is in between bands, almost but not quite dry slotted.
    Figures!!

    Places like Worcester and Springfield, much farther away from the storm center
    will likely end up with MORE SNOW!

  110. Looks like the 3-6 for most is going to work out. Putting in a quick update. I need 15 extra min to get where I’m going this morning so gonna do this fast and we’ll chat later. 🙂

  111. Not much here…parts of driveway still black pavement. What is covered looks to be about 2 inches by eyeballing it?

    1. Another 1-3 inches this morning. We’ll get into the 3-6 inch range if you have not. This thing is behaving pretty much on the button. I did mention some banding. It’s occurring.

  112. Remember, the snow has to actually finish falling before we have a total. 🙂

    Blog updated!

  113. Way more snow out here in Worcester area than I expected. Gotta be nearing 4″ soon. Fluffier than I expected too.

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