Thursday Forecast

53 Comments

7:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 24-28)…
No big changes today. We’re on the chilly side of the front now, but low level moisture has been lacking some some areas see a touch of sun to start the day, though clouds will dominate with a gusty northeasterly wind today. The warmer air tries to return later tonight and Friday with some wet weather, and still a final front from the west will push it all away during Friday night, setting up a nice weekend governed by high pressure, of which we’ll be on the cool side Saturday and warmer side Sunday. But all good things must end, and our well-timed 2-day fair spell will be replaced by more unsettled weather as another low pressure area arrives Monday.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle developing. Highs upper 30s to middle 40s. Wind NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of drizzle. Chance of rain, especially late at night. Lows middle 30s to lower 40s. Wind E 5-15 MPH gusting over 20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mainly cloudy with rain showers likely at times. Highs middle 50s to near 60. Wind SE to S early, then S to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Lows middle 30s to lower 40s. Highs middle 40s to lower 50s.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny morning. Increasing clouds late. Lows upper 30s to middle 40s. Highs middle 50s to lower 60s.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 29-APRIL 2)…
Progressive pattern continues as systems move along. Fair, windy, colder March 29. Fair and milder March 30-31. Mild with rain showers April 1. Fair and colder April 2.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 3-7)…
Trending colder. A couple passing systems may bring some rain/mix/snow.

53 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

      1. You brought back memories of driving south on 95 through NC and watching for the south of the border signs

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.
    A little bite to the air this morning, but not bad.

    So far, I’m not getting exciting about any upcoming weather.
    May not until May or June sometime. 😀
    Unless TK can sneak a snow event in here early in April.

    1. Eh. Models may be in lose it / find it mode. Not seeing any big April snow just maybe some early April flakes somewhere first 10 days. Stand by…

  7. Hmmm,

    The Euro actually wants to give us a couple of inches of snow late 3/29 into
    3/30. We’ll see IF that is still there with the 12Z run. 😀

  12. Also interesting that our storm Monday has trended from a cutter to coastal storm tracking south of us. However there just isn’t enough cold air to work with to result in a snow event here although the models are trying to develop a bit of back end snow. Could be a chance for a more decent snow event now though for NNE.

  13. GFS does look much more progressive for the middle of next week. Follows that with a Great Lakes intense low pressure area.

    1. Beyond that, 12z GFS is cold with a parade of snow or mixed precip threats 4/4 – 4/10. None of them look major at this point but the chance is certainly there for another accumulating snow event, favoring interior areas.

        1. No surprise on the 6-10.
          Regarding the 8-14, keep in mind this is over a 7-day period and is not derived from a model but an actual forecast. It doesn’t mean you cannot have a below normal day or 2 in the mix coinciding with a precipitation event. It is also no guarantee that this forecast actually verifies. 🙂

          1. As much as I love snow and winter, I’m ready for spring. My gut says we’ll have more ups and downs, especially since it IS still March and early April isn’t much different, but I can always hope 🙂

            1. We’ll get a few days that remind us of Winter in early April, in a relative sense of course, and we’ll have several days I am sure that the ocean reminds us that it’s still chilly and very close by, but I really do think the trend is for the warmer than average side of things to win out as we get deeper into April and beyond, and that pattern is likely be quite lasting (through Summer maybe into early or even mid Autumn).

  15. Euro shows a coastal for the 29th with very marginal 850mb temperatures. It would really have to come down very intensely.

  16. I feel like winter has been over since mid February. And typically we don’t see snow past this timeframe, Ik it can, kinda like we can get a hurricane here in August or September. but it is rare. This winter has been great if your a snow hater, most clients I start with how did you endure this past winter?, they all say “what winter?” Next year will probably be different but who knows.

    Cloudy 41 degrees

    1. Well given that we had a very mild back half of February and a very mild March, it would be easy to say that it feels that way. As always I talk about weather relative to long term averages for the time that it is.

      A chilly pattern in April rarely produces any snow, and even more rarely any accumulation of snow, but when I talk about it I’m speaking in relative terms. I do know we’ll have some chilly shots of air coming up during the beginning to middle of April, probably enough to skew the temperature to the negative side of average. That may feel pretty chilly after coming off a warmer than average March, but then in itself will be counteracted somewhat by the fact that going forward our daily averages are climbing. It’s simply complex. However, the truth is: Winter ended on March 20. 😀

      And yes, in the heart of hurricane season we have a very low percentage of a land-falling hurricane in New England. History shows this as well.

    1. For parts of the region, it’s possible, but I think as it stands now that forecast may be a bit aggressive. He’s allowed to gamble on it though. 🙂

  18. Yes, I understand that accumulating snow in April is rare but I can’t get 1978, 1982, 1987 and 1997 out of my mind as I remember them all like it was yesterday. Also April 1960 had a snowy start as well. I still hadn’t been born just yet until November but I have seen photos of Boston of that month looking quite solidly white. I don’t know about the western suburbs but here in Boston there is no swelling of buds of trees or bushes and no real green grass. My crocuses are still blooming and some daffodils but not all have come up. Mother Nature may be onto something?

    TK – Can you give us the “all clear” regarding snow threats when you feel the time is definitely right? Thanks.

    1. There was also a few instances of measurable snow, especially in the suburbs, in April 1996.

      I always allude to the all clear when I think it’s safe. It’s close, as threats are very limited, but not quite time yet. I want strong confirmation of a persistent switch to warm, which I believe is in the future, but we need some patience to reach it.

      1. Now that you mention it, I believe that Boston had measurable snow in April 1996 as well. If I am not mistaken, several inches in fact.

  21. on the GFS, if the cold front is dragged over the region a tad faster, could we see it interact with the low coming to the south of the region, could the front drag drag the storm or form an other low that could show a more snowy scenario.

    1. In order to get that cold air in, we have to get the dry air in. I don’t think we could flip that storm to snow here no matter what happens. This upcoming situation is just not the right setup. You do have a low forming and going under you, but it’s on a boundary interacting with the overall trough. Instead of a high to the north, you have a moderate to strong area of low pressure. That’s usually a no-snow setup even in mid Winter, forget early Spring.

      We’ll have to watch the large scale trough that comes through in one or 2 punches in the first 10 days of April, especially the period April 3-10. A well-timed disturbance in that time period might do it, though the opportunity will be in a short-lived window.

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