Tuesday Forecast

130 Comments

7:19AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 29-APRIL 2)…
March can be known for wind, and it will live up to this over the next few days, but those winds will bring varying temperatures along with them, chilly today, milder tomorrow, and warmer Thursday, as our changeable weather pattern continues. After the mild spell that comes in during midweek and lasts through the first day of April on Friday, it still looks like we’ll start heading in the other direction again as the weekend arrives.
TODAY: Sunshine with areas of passing clouds. Highs from the upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind NW 15-30 MPH with gusts 35-50 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 30s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W and diminishing.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs from the middle 50s to near 60, except lower 50s Cape Cod. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 40s. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs from the middle 60s to near 70, except 50s Cape Cod. Wind SW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of rain showers. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 3-8)…
Windy and colder with a chance of snow showers April 3. Dry but lots of clouds and cold April 4. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow/mix and continued cold April 5. Risk of light mix/rain April 6, very cool. Chance of light mix/drizzle/rain April 7 and still cool.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 9-13)…
Fair and milder early to mid period. Risk of some unsettled weather again before the end of the period.

130 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  4. Thank you TK

    Didn’t hear wind in night but several outdoor chairs are blown over. Can see trees behind house swaying now. I do love wind.

    1. Funny you say that Vicki. I went to bed hoping to hear the wind howling overnight but I didn’t hear it either. 🙂

      1. Hmmmm. I even left my window open. First night I’ve slept really well in a bit so maybe that was because of the wind.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Briefly looked over the GFS and CMC and both show some snow potential in April.
    Both show 2-3 inches for Boston. We shall see. About to look at the Euro. 😀

      2. Your speaking to soon. It won’t be anything of significance. Trust me. I’ve seen it snow in Dallas in late Marchch last year. A few snow flakes that wet the ground or coat the ground isn’t much big news. There will still be work that day, and the next day.

    2. Interesting that it’s also showing run to run consistency, as far as being something that’s on consecutive runs.

  7. Thanks TK
    Hopefully most of the snow depicted on the 0z EURO falls at night since its very tough for snow to accumulate this time of year during the daylight hours with the high sun angle unless that snow was to come down very hard.

  8. Wind speeds and timing so far just as expected. Strongest winds were expected today, not overnight. Gusting 35+ in Reading now.

  9. Tweet from Eric Fisher
    Here’s why I’ve been saying don’t write off snow yet. Widespread snow showers Sat night, then this clipper Tuesday.

  11. I didn’t hear any wind last night; we were too busy walking around with flashlights! Our electricity went out (we don’t know the cause – called elec. co. and they didn’t know) from around 10:15 p.m. – 1:00 a.m.

    The wind has been kind of weird around here. More gusty than consistent. Typical March day!

    1. Oh how exciting. Our wires are underground. Yuk. And the house is set up for a generator but won’t work without a generator. You all know I will NOT have a generator 🙂

  13. I believe if what those models are showing are correct in terms of placement, southeast areas will not see those amounts, especially if its during the day. If it is further north, and its more in the over night hours/morning then maybe.

    1. I like him. I don’t know how his accuracy rate is and am not sure I care. I like the way he explains. It educates the average person and makes it clear what can and cannot happen.

      1. I do as well. He is usually fairly accurate. I have no real problems there. I like how he indicates what could happen with various scenarios. Like in this one, if it’s weaker, it favors Northern NE
        and stronger it would favor SNE etc. etc. etc.

  16. TK when you say those words looks interesting to me I start to take notice.
    You are not one to hype things.

  17. But, If you say combination, you are looking at the possibility of something like 2-4 inches of snow generally across the area OR at least in part of the area?

    Is that a reasonable assumption?

    1. No way I can give a 2 inch range 7+ days out. More looking at the general setup at this point.

      1. Of course I know that, but what I mean is you have an idea.
        Your idea is more than a dusting, but not a Major storm.
        That is why I said “something” like 2-4 inches. Not asking for you
        to give your range a week out. Just trying to get an idea
        of the magnitude of the event in your mind.

        an inch or 2? I am thinking you are leaning towards a couple of inches or so.

        OR do you really mean that generally it likes like it wants to snow, but you really have no idea of the magnitude?

        No one is trying to pin you down for a number. That would be Absurd. Just trying to get a feel for what is possibly in the cards, if anything at all. That is all. 😀

  18. The set-up as I see it for next week is something we’ve been missing all winter. Namely, a clipper that dives south and east and then redevelops off the coast. This is a common occurrence in most winters at least a few times, but I can’t remember any this winter. The clippers from Alberta have gone in a straight line east and therefore stayed well north of us.

    I am a little shocked and also very skeptical about the snow amounts depicted on the Euro model for the mid-Atlantic states. While accumulating snow in April does happen on occasion in southern New England it’s more of a rarity in the mid-Atlantic.

    1. When all is said and done, those Mid-Atlantic amounts will be across SNE. 😀
      Perhaps now that Winter is over and we are officially into Spring, perhaps it
      will actually materialize? I’ll believe it when I see it. At least there is something
      to watch. We shall see.

      I wonder what the 12Z Euro will report? Will it go Poof? Slide out South?
      Go North? Disappear into the Bermuda Triangle? Who knows.

      1. We shall indeed see. I do think the first week to 10 days of April will be about as cold as it can get around here at that time of year.

        Tonight I’m on my way to an academic conference in of all places, Las Vegas. Not my kind of city, but I’m not in charge of organizing the conference. Weather there should be near 70F and tranquil, so that’s good. But, I won’t see much of it as I’ll be in a cookie-cutter hotel presenting and doing panels, and then returning to Boston on Thursday. As always I’m anxious about flying. Irrational, I know.

      1. Like deep reds and yellows on snow totals from Boston into the Merrimack Valley. Is that like 8-14 inches …….

    1. What winter? It hasn’t showed up yet 🙂
      This business wise is rivaling 11/12 year. ITS BEEN OUTSTANDING!!!

  27. re: Next week

    Loads of room for these model forecasts to go bust.

    I give you the following 2 frames of the GFS

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2016032912&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=174

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2016032912&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=177

    Notice the trough between and connecting the 2 systems.
    I can see this going poof and the Southern system taking over.

    Dying to see the Euro. It is coming out now. 😀

  29. Looks like the system for next week has done the proverbial POOF on the Euro.
    Amazing!!!! Truly amazing!!!

    waiting for a better map to post.

    1. Another clipper dropping down for later, however, looks to me like it will
      pass North of the region. Winds don’t look to favor a coastal redevelopment, but
      we shall see.

      1. There actually IS a coastal redevelopment, but the problem is
        the cold air has retreated enough for it to be too warm at the surface and aloft. Figures.

  30. Nothing really budding in Boston, even grass is just getting started up again. In my yard, only crocuses and daffodils. I would say Mother Nature is holding back until cold retreats for good.

    2. Not sure where you live Phillip, but there are buds popping everywhere here in Cambridge. The oaks and maples aren’t doing a lot, but the ornamental’s are really opening up. I’m afraid some of the flowering trees that have started may take a beating next week.

            1. Several years ago we had fairly heavy snow on our forsythia in framingham. I have a pic somewhere. They did fine. Our dogwood took a huge hit and never recovered in the May 1977 storm but dog woods are not blooming yet to my knowledge. There are a bunch of young trees in our new yard. I have no idea what they are but no buds yet.

  31. Has anyone tried the Zephyr Free Wind Meter?

    I downloaded the app. It estimates the wind speed by the sound the wind makes
    as it blows into the speaker of the smart phone. Turn the speak towards the wind and
    Viola it measures the speed. I blew into the speaker and got it to 19 meters per second
    or 42 mph.

    It’s actually pretty cool.

  32. What a disappointment the Euro was. Wow!
    What a change in 12 hours.

    Something is likely to happen between 4/1 and 4/11. We just don’t know what
    or when just yet.

    Stay tuned for many more changes.

    1. On the final cold front of the run, it is possible we get development down
      in the carolinas that would move up into fresh new cold air. Long way off.

  33. Good afternoon all!

    -WxWatcher: You have a new email. 🙂

    -Models: They’ll be all over the place, as usual, regarding anything over a few days away, that includes any threat of late snow next week.

    -When I speak of snow threats at this and any time of year, it’s important to keep in mind that I’m often talking about the region as a whole. Just because I say “chance of snow” or some form of that, it doesn’t automatically translate to mt predicting a massive snowstorm in North Attleboro, or to plowable snow on the inner city streets of Boston, to cite 2 specific examples. There are far more areas in southern New England than those. The mention of snow at this or any time of year, when coming from me, is based at the very least on climatology but much more often than not it’s being derived from a careful meteorological analysis of current and upcoming weather. You can say it all you want, but weather forecasting on “gut feeling” is not really possible, even though I myself have used the phrase. The reality is, “gut feeling” in my case is coming from experience in the field, as a scientist. No amount of experience makes you a perfect scientist of any kind, and this is especially true in the often shaky science of meteorology, but blind guesses are only that, and carry very little weight, regardless of the eventual outcome. And “less than 4 inches” is not to be defined as a miss, nor is accumulation on unpaved surfaces versus none on paved ones. It may have different impacts on work and travel, among other things, but the reality is every situation carries its own set of certainties, and observations, when taken properly, are about as certain as we can get in this field.

  34. Blackstone…Just for the record, I live in Dorchester which as a whole, is closest to the water compared with most of the city of Boston. In terms of spring growth there is a delay between coast and interior sections. Not surprised that JP, West Roxbury, etc. are budding. 🙂

  35. Thanks tk. I think after Friday’s highs it will look a bit more colorful around these parts. It’s already begin to look a bit more colorful than just a week ago.

    1. It’s always awesome how quickly that happens, like a switch is pushed. Usually mid to late April in this area all the trees that have had buds for a few weeks just suddenly have light green on them. It may be a touch early this season.

    1. You can start now/this weekend. Only in sunny areas. Apply another one in mid May for better control.

      1. Thanks! I was infested with it toward the end of last summer and I think it was b/c I applied pre-emergent control too late in the spring

  38. Record-breaking rainfall and flooding underway six years ago today, March 29, 2010. Taunton River crested at 14.97″ on April 1, almost 7″ over flood stage. We had 16.83″ of rain here in Taunton in March, 2010.

    1. They had the duck boats transporting residents on and off of Pelham island rd Wayland so they could go to work. Thanks for the reminder

  39. Eric is the only met to have snow for Tuesday. The others don’t even mention the possibility other than a quick flurry for the weekend. Actually Eric is quite bullish for snow showers late Saturday into Sunday morning.

  40. Today is the anniversary of the March 29 1984 “snow bomb” storm in eastern MA. I’m still trying to dig up more info on this system for its regional impact. Here in Woburn we had a foot of snow in about 6 hours, white-out conditions during the day when all of the snow fell (basically 9AM-3PM was the heaviest). Cloud-to-ground lightning was common during the heaviest snow with a couple lightning strikes in the Reading MA area. One of my notable memories from this storm was being able to lean into the wind at a considerable angle and be held up.

    2. It was amazing. We had to have had a foot. Trees down everywhere. Power out for days (yay). We had a bit less than a foot 16 days prior to that storm. It was wet ans heavy. Took Mac about six hours to get home from Watertown.

  41. Charlie. I have applied done what you suggested in the past in terms of applying two applications of crab grass preventer (March and then May). However, I found that I had a weed problem because I wasn’t able to squeeze in a weed and feed application. If you apply crab grass preventer in March and then again in May/June, how can I control the weed population? I realize you can use ortho Weed B Gone but that is too tedious and kills grass on contact if you’re not careful.

    1. Good question! It’s tough to do as a homeowner but I walk properties every visit and spot treat in detail every weed., every month. It’s a bit more environmentally safe. A weed and feed will only take care of about87% of the weeds. Plantation and spurge amongst a few others will not die or be prevented. The best thing is to apply your weed and feed in Late Apil if you have many weeds then apply 2nd crabgrass in mid to late May.

      1. Can you do a weed and feed in April and then apply a single crab grass preventer in late May? Seems as if the march application isn’t as important as the one in may anyways.

        1. Thanks. I have irrigation so I always water after application. Most fertilizers state you have to wait at least 6-8 weeks between apps. Is 4 weeks suitable?

            1. ok. Thanks. Don’t want to burn out my grass. I also have a problem with red thread. They say nitrogen is the best way to combat that so perhaps the extra nitrogen will keep it controlled.

              1. Red thread is a problem In New England, but yes nitrogen will 95% of the time push it out, with top growth.

                1. I find that the red thread peeks during the hottest part during the summer. I always thought that hot, dry conditions control red thread. Not in my case. But when I apply nitrogen, it curbs it and once the nitrogen wears off, it returns again. By that time, it has already yellowed my lawn.

                2. Yes! Red thread thrives in low nitrogen fertilizer lawns, during humid times, typical late May June and early July. If it rains a lot with humid weather it can go crazy overnight

                3. Just be sure not to let it melt out aka died. It does not come back in rare occasions, kinda like snow in April 😉 😉

  42. I find it interesting that March 29 had “snow bomb” one year and flooding rains in another. I guess it is no wonder we had very gusty winds today. That would make the date itself somewhat “infamous”. 😉

      1. We saw town workers in a nearby town trying to blow leaves etc out of streets and off sidewalks. A tad unproductive

  44. Good morning.
    Early quick look at 0z runs.
    Looking mighty interesting again.
    All different, but all deliver decent
    Snow next week and the euro
    Is off the charts with 12 to 18 inches
    Across the area. Maps later.
    Going to sleep a bit more.

  45. Quick look 6z GFS has no snow in SNE early next week. That was the first GFS run that did not show snow for SNE. Prior to that some amount of snow was shown for SNE with a couple runs.

  46. That is quite impressive snowfall amounts show for April. Don’t think we get that much snow the EURO is predicting but will see what happens.

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