Wednesday Forecast

95 Comments

7:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 30-APRIL 3)…
High pressure controls today, breezy but less windy than yesterday, and also milder. Winds return Thursday as the southwesterly wind flow strengthens and transports warmer air in. A cold front moves into the area Friday producing rain showers in the lingering mild air. The weekend trends colder as a couple strong cold fronts move through. We may even see some April snow flakes by Saturday night or Sunday as the cold air becomes established.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs from the middle 50s to near 60, except lower 50s Cape Cod. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 40s. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs from the middle 60s to near 70, except 50s Cape Cod. Wind SW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of rain showers. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny day. Variably cloudy with rain to snow showers night. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy and windy. Chance of snow showers. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 4-8)…
Dry but lots of clouds and cold April 4. Watching an area of low pressure for possible snow/mix April 5-6. Additional unsettled weather, more likely rain or drizzle, April 7-8. Temperatures remain mostly below normal through the period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 9-13)…
Fair and milder early to mid period. Risk of some unsettled weather again before the end of the period.

95 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  4. Good morning again,

    If I may, here is a re-post from earlier

    JP Dave says:
    March 30, 2016 at 6:57 AM
    Euro actually delivers a few inches on 4/3-4/4 then on 4/5-4/6 drops the load. 18 inches total for boston.

    Euro run total snow

    http://imgur.com/Fd1CFHR

    surface

    http://imgur.com/DyKUr5M

    Then we have this interesting feature for 0Z on 4/9
    with more marginal temperatures for snow.

    http://imgur.com/2eTRRK7

    It should be noted that the 6Z GFS takes the 4/5 system NORTH of us with only a little front and/or backend snow.
    Reply

      1. No sure Vicki,
        But the Euro shows back end only for 4/3-4/4.
        For the 4/5-4/6 event it is a full on snow storm.
        Again, this is just the 0Z Euro depiction of something 6 days out.

        It does Not mean this will happen, but clearly something to watch.

        As I pointed out, the 6Z GFS takes the system North of us
        with virtually no snow for SNE.

        So we shall see.

        1. It will be interesting if Bernie expands the snow threat area. I believe his last video was mostly for NNE.

          1. Not sure what good ole Bernie will say.
            Will he do a video this morning or wait until
            all 12Z Guidance is in?

  5. Thank you tk 🙂

    Working
    Saw landscapers actually mowing today, talked to them briefly, they r about a week ahead of normal. If you’ve fertilized in the past 10-14 days the lawns grown about 2-3 inches. Looking like a beauty today. Already 40 according to truck.

        1. I don’t often. We’re going to have it completely redone anyway hopefully soon.

          1. All lawns around our home and around my daughter’s are dormant. All look to be well cared for even though they are winter tired.

            2. They might need a fertilizer or a heavy lime. Lawns should not be looking winter tires from this past winter. 1) either they or there lawn care comp is behind or 2) they have not done anything.

  6. Ok Opening day for the Sox is Monday April 4th in Cleveland.
    Not weather conducive for baseball, I’m afraid. “Could” even be some flakes in the
    air. The whole damn series could be cancelled due to combination of cold and/or
    snow.

  8. I have not been looking into the models that much as I have a chemistry test on friday that I am scared to death of, But then seeing that there is interesting weather on the models for next week. How are the trends and ensembles looking for these, possible systems. Looks like the Canadian has jumped from North of us, to south of us to smashing us with a heavy snowfall for this time of year.

    2. Hopefully that snow threat sinks a bit further south into at least northern CT and RI as well as SE MA. That map just barely gets to the Pike and looks more like a mostly NNE event. Thanks Sue.

  11. Which direction will the Tuesday storm come from? North or South? I am not sure I understand why NNE is the most likely target at this time.

    1. It will be a clipper coming in from Great Lakes, so If it does not come
      South enough, then snow would be in NNE.

      Here is the 6Z GFS depiction. I’ll show a few frames.

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016033006/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016033006/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016033006/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23.png

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016033006/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png

      1. Thanks JP. Now I understand. I guess OTS is possible also as well if it tracks toooo far south of us. There are also precip type issues as well.

        1. Yup all of the above is in play with it this far out there.
          HOWEVER, IF the track is just right, it could produce decent amounts of snow around here as the air will be plenty cold enough. 😀

    1. Low is still there on April 5th. Skirts south coast of New England and with that snowfall is more in southern NH and ME.

      I know the snowfall locations continue to change a bit, but I find the signal to be pretty consistent.

  14. Also, the system coming through to our north over the weekend, while not a snow producer, is impressively deepening as it passes through northern New England.

    That could be quite a wind producer with maybe a rain or snow squall.

  15. Geez the sun feels warm!! I believe it’s equal to early Sept. Soils has reached the mid 50’s. Temp is 54 degrees

  16. Charlie, need your expertise…. We have an infestation of penny royal weed? What do we get to get rid of it? Thanks…. Back to your regularly scheduled program

    1. If you want to be environmentally safe, you can pull, they won’t come back for a season. Any 24d product spot spray will take are of it.

  17. A clipper system is going to require literally a “picture perfect” track for accumulating snow for SNE. At least a coastal doesn’t require a track directly over the benchmark necessarily.

  18. FWIW, the 12z CMC also has the storm early next week tracking straight across central New England. That would keep the axis of heavy snow well up in NNE. Still early though and plenty of room for track adjustments.

    And to Tom’s point, the weekend storm really does bomb out as it passes by us – CMC has it down to 975mb in the Gulf of Maine. Blizzard conditions for downeast Maine and a very windy, cold Sunday for SNE with snow showers at least early in the day. I could easily see wind chills down in the teens or even single digits by later Sunday.

    1. Like tk said yesterday, just from yesterday there’s even more color today than yesterday, happening quickly

    2. Am I going need snow tires on the spreaders like you said last time? 😉 😉
      We will be working Monday on 2nd visits already.

          1. They really have them for spreaders? I thought you guys were kidding. I have not used snow tires on a car in about 40 years.

  21. Looks like the Tuesday storm is passing south of us as well and will be a snow producer again….

    1. Running into a mtg now….will post maps later if Dave doesn’t. Axis of heavier snow is a bit north but still looks like 9″+ for Boston area.

  23. Looking at 12z GFS higher snow totals north of me and sounds like its the same with the 12z EURO.

  24. 12z Euro run total snow for next week:
    http://i.imgur.com/KlyAFZc.jpg

    There are three main events – a light snowfall across the area with the clipper Sunday delivering an inch or so of snow, the larger storm Tuesday (clipper w/ coastal redevelopment to our south), and a third coastal storm near the end of the week (4/9) that delivers heavy snow just west of New England in NYS.

  25. Sandwiched between two areas of higher snow totals with that run of EURO.
    Hope there is a shift in one of the higher snow totals my way.

    1. The configuration probably won’t look anything like that anyway, shift or not. Something not right with the Euro.

  26. Not the biggest fan of the ECMWF today. I think it is amplifying the wrong things too much.

  28. I love snow but it is bound to be heavy at this time of year so very destructive. I’ll hope for a gentle coating at most.

  29. Eric continues to be quite bullish on snow.

    Saturday night/Sunday = widespread snow showers

    Monday night/Tuesday = a few inches

    1. He also said at the 5:47pm edition that north and west of Boston have the best chance of seeing snow. North of pike. All the other news stations didn’t make much deal out of it. Had rain/snow symbols.

  30. Good evening, everyone…

    In yesterday’s blog, we discovered that March 29 is becoming a bit infamous in NE weather history: flooding rains and the “snow bomb”…
    I found some more March 29 weather. I remember a snow event on Easter Sunday in 1970 when I was a boy. I checked the records and Easter was March 29 in 1970. There was a region-wide 7″-8″ snowfall on March 29, Easter. There was a 5″-6” snowfall again two days later on March 31, measuring nearly a foot of snow in a 48-hour period.

    1. I remember the 1970 Easter. We had gone to Fantasia restaurant in fresh pond, Cambridge, for Easter dinner. It was barely flurryig when we went in and all was covered when we came out. Thank you. I remembered the even but not the year or date. I remember at my moms dismay taking my Mach I for a drive.

      1. Certainly remember that one.
        I Picked up my then girl friend, now wife, at work at the Children’s museum and then we went to 5 O’clock Mass. It was snowing decently, but I don’t recall having any difficulty driving around.
        I had to drive from the city to JP in the height of the storm.
        No problems that I can remember. 😀

  31. Fisher said on Twitter any snow we get is minor and won’t stick around long. Also said the cold isn’t as deep and wide spread as previously modeled. So we shall see

    1. Yet he is the only one with 4 days in a row of sub-40 highs on the 7-day. It may be a matter of what one infers from that statement. The cold will be relatively short lived, not January-like, but significant for April.

  34. 18z GFS stays amazingly consistent regarding next Mon night – Tuesday clipper passing along the south coast of New England.

    1. Yes and delivers “about” 5 inches to Boston. Seems a tad more realistic
      than what the Euro wants to deliver. 😀

      1. It does ……

        It’s funny, at the time 2 weeks ago, I think we were saying that March 20th event was the best setup of the winter for snow.

        I kind of think that this April 4th through 5th event may end up being the best setup for snow. Also, it seems timed right for the bulk of it to fall overnight into the early hours of Tuesday morning. Because it’s April, it may not provide the most accumulation of the winter, but it might still be the best snow scenario.

          1. That’s always a concern, but it seems able to provide a decent precip event while slowly intensifying.

            1. Oops. Lol. I miss hit a key which added a letter to my name and I posted and understandably, the comment is awaiting moderation.

  35. Also, it’s subtle, but the 18z GFS came slightly south on the weekend low with arctic front, tracking it near the Mass/NH border. That could increase the rain/snow shower threat the middle of the weekend.

    With the Mon night/Tuesday system, if the 18z or 12z GFS VERIFIED, I would propose that there would be a couple hours in eastern Mass early next Tuesday morning with temps below 32F, a decent couple hours of wind driven snow and some impacts.

    Pretty cold airmass for this low to tap and once it got to Nantucket or just east, I think we’d see something similar to a January system of some cold air getting yanked down into eastern Mass.

    Then, later in the day, as the low pulls away and the sun comes out, you’d know it’s April when the temp rises to 40F by mid afternoon.

    1. I think you have described it well. I just wonder if it blows up near
      nantucket.

      I don’t know if you remember Roland Boucher, a former Tv Met on
      channel 7 and on air radio met at WKOX in Framingham. I worked with him
      for a couple of years. Went skiing with him to Killington one time. Anyway,
      he was telling me about a past Winter, something like the late 40s, yes he was considerably older than I. That winter, he said there were number of innocuos
      systems passing just South of SNE and ALL of them BLEW up unexpectedly
      near Nantucket. That is why I pose that question.

      1. I’m sorry JpDave, I don’t remember him.

        I agree with you and the next 48-72 hrs might be interesting to watch what the models think it’s intensity will be.

    1. Twitter seems to have a lot of activity regarding a tornado near Tulsa. I’m getting the idea this has produced a tornado and been on the ground for some time.

      1. Oh dear. Never a good thing. There is an active warning still NE of Tulsa. Expires in 26 minutes

        2. Yes. At least by radar, the one ENE of Tulsa doesn’t look as impressive at the current moment.

          I know I complain a lot about our cold springs, but watching this tonight always reminds me to stop complaining and be thankful.

          1. I feel the same. So many other parts of the country have far worse than a cold spring. Although, I don’t recall you complaining about anything !

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