Monday Forecast

67 Comments

7:24AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 25-29)…
No big changes overall but some tweaks. Cloudiness today as a boundary sets up over the region. Wet weather Tuesday as low pressure rides along this boundary. Fair weather Wednesday as high pressure moves in. Another area of low pressure approaches later in the week but may stay far enough south to keep much of the region dry or just bring brief wet weather to southern areas.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs middle 50s to lower 60s, coolest Cape Cod. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain developing overnight. Lows in the 40s. Wind light variable becoming N to NE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Overcast. Periods of rain and drizzle. Ice pellets may mix in at times in southern NH and extreme northern MA. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady in the 40s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH with gusts 15-25 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain tapering off evening. Clearing overnight. Lows in the 30s. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 50s. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of rain southern areas late. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s.
FRIDAY: Risk of rain southern areas early. Decreasing clouds. Lows in the 40s. Highs 55-65.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 30-MAY 4)…
Fair weather for the weekend of April 30 and May 1. Unsettled weather probable May 2-4. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 5-9)…
Episodes of unsettled weather. Temperatures near to below normal.

67 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK. Tomorrow’s system is looking now like a mainly snow/mix event here in central NH, a couple inches perhaps. Spring in New England 🙂

    1. Enjoy – I remember back in the day when spring skiing was very welcome….with natural snow since there was little to no snowmaking equipment.

  4. NWS has the possibility of a complete changeover to snow/mix for northern MA as well. We will see.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I am getting tired of seeing Below normal temperatures now extending out
    to May 9th?

    Geez, good ole Spring in New England. I have been too busy and I haven’t even
    looked at a model lately. What is this snow/mix crapola for tomorrow.

    Let me see, tomorrow is 4/26. Getting rather late for that kind of shenanigans, although I have seen it that late and later. How about some more 70 Degree weather?
    Yeah, that’s the ticket. 😀

    1. I saw that and laughed out loud. Someone is very clever.

      On a serious note, I like they want to put a woman on a bill…..I’d truly love to see John Adams recognized. Horrendous oversight IMO.

  7. Everything I looked at this morning from the overnight runs didn’t show much (read none) in the way of 70 degree weather in the next couple weeks. Looks like a lot of mid 50’s, maybe a low 60 mixed in. 850 anomalies look pretty chilly right thru the 1st week of May.
    Pretty ironic that last year we had one of the coldest March’s, and all that snow, but May 2015 was AN with lots of 70’s, and some 80’s thrown in. This year the mild winter has turned into a slower spring. So much for the AN spring that was forecasted by Accuweather and TWC. Should have known it would be the opposite. One more month of met spring to go, but if the first week of May turns out as currently modeled, the last 3 weeks would need to turn it around in a hurry. So far, I’d give spring a B- just based on no sustained warmer weather and the 15 degree lows we had a couple weeks ago. Could be worse, so far there have been no 5-6 day, or longer, stretches of cut off lows.

    1. Agree, it always could be worse.
      It hasn’t been all that bad, actually.
      We just need to lower our expectations for warmth for a bit.

      1. I think we need to wait until the AO comes up. NAO too. Both telle’s look better by early May. Ensembles look fairly tight on the AO heading toward neutral. As I’ve said before that telly has less and less impact as you move further into the warm season. The atmosphere is still damn cold from the last SSW in mid March. I would have thought it wouldn’t have lasted this long. AO looks to start rising after mid week. Maybe the operationals will look better once they catch on? I dunno. Grasping at straws here trying to find some warmer weather where there is none, at least the high temps most people want to see.

      1. I would have bet it would be reinstated. And it is beyond disgraceful. Even I do not have words to describe the lunacy involved here.

  9. Blackstone, per usual excellent points. I enjoy your posts! TWC and Accuweather were completely wrong about spring in the northeast. My issue is not that they were wrong, but that they don’t own up to it and explain to interested readers. Occasionally, Brett Anderson will explain what went wrong with a forecast of his, but that’s a rarity.

    TK, you said several weeks ago that we should watch out for something coming on the 25th or 26th of April, and that you thought snow or mix may be involved for some. I call that excellent forecasting on your part. You also nailed the April 4-6 timeframe for a snow event long before it happened.

  10. While I do not think Tom Brady is an angel, or someone who would never do anything wrong (including altering the psi in footballs), there is NO legal justification for the 4-game suspension. None. It’s a travesty that judges, who are paid professionals – taught to look for and examine EVIDENCE – made this decisions based on no evidence. How could Circuit Judge Denny Chin say that evidence of ball tampering was “compelling, if not overwhelming” and there was evidence that Brady “knew about it, consented to it, encouraged it.” Compelling, if not overwhelming! What? Sure, there was circumstantial evidence that Brady was aware of the psi in footballs, and that he communicated with ball managers. But, this does not imply evidence of ball tampering, or Brady’s consent to or encouragement of ball tampering. The text messages and Brady’s destruction of his phone are really the only rather flimsy bits of evidence the NFL had. How on earth would judges then see this as the smoking gun? I know one thing, I wouldn’t want these judges to determine my case if I’m ever a defendant.

    1. I agree the 4 games is rediculous, but the judges didn’t rule on whether or not Brady did it, they ruled Goodell was within the CBA to hand down the suspension however rediculous it is. The players gave him the power to do so and he did.

      1. However, if you read the transcript of the Berman trial, it clearly shows the NFL was outside of their rights. There were many infractions on the part of the NFL. I will have to reread. At the time, I read every word of every document while mac was having tests etc. It keep us both occupied and thinking which was the up side

  11. The judges never wanted this case before them . It’s war now trust me . This is on the way to the S. Court trust me. Look for a very angry Kraft to hold a press conference soon. One of the judges was not in favor of this but majority rules . If no decision is made by September he can play till the ruling . This will be dominating the news

    1. I hear you. I also hear AceMaster. I realize the judges were ruling whether Goodell was within the CBA, but why then did they grill the NFL and Brady lawyers on the case? Why even have a hearing, for goodness sake? It’s an utter waste of time if the only thing they’re going to say is something we knew all along: Namely, the CBA has granted Goodell dictatorial powers. He can do whatever he wants to, regardless of the merits of the case.

  12. From a pure football view, I kind of wish Brady would accept the 4 games.

    I’d like to find out what we have in Garopollo. He’ll have Gronk, Bennett, Welker, Dion Lewis and company. If he’s anywhere near good, he should be able to go 3-1, with the real tough game at Arizona.

    That’s 4 less games of pounding on your 40 year old QB too.

    Or Brady can fight it, is not guaranteed to get a further ruling or win at a higher court level and it just hangs over the Patriots.

    Time to move on, even if its absolutely ridiculous.

    1. Tom I’d be shocked if Tom were to accept . He has made it clear before he will fight this to the end and I believe he will . Bob and bill are just not going to sit there and be without Tom the first month of the season without a fight . I just don’t see it happening that way .

      1. If the supreme court or whatever court is higher up then the current appeals court wont hear the case, then that might be the final word on the matter.

        I’m glad that came now. Somehow, I’m stomaching it easier today. If this were August, I think it would bother me more. But, there’s so much time to plan for this. And if Garopollo was so good to use a 2nd round pick, then he should win those 3 home games with all the offensive players he has it has disposal. And then its done with !!!

    2. I 100% agree Tom, it’s time for everyone involved to move on from this. I heard even if Brady appeals to the Supreme Court, they only hear 1% of appellate cases. With the absurdity of this one and with much more pressing issues the Supreme Court should be dealing with, I would expect the appeal to be denied. Brady might have no other choice but to accept. I would also like to see Jimmy G play. One more thing, Tom, Welker doesn’t play for the Pats anymore 🙂

      1. Holy moly, Welker !!

        I meant Edelman. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

        Brain hasn’t re-cranked up from the mindlessness of vacation.

        1. That’s better than all the typos in my comment about Brady not giving in. I’d like to say I was using my iPad and blame autocorrect but I was using the computer 🙁

  13. The weather …..

    For me, it was a great stretch of weather for April break. Lots of sunny days and some warmth, even to the coast Friday.

    My complaints start when the high temps in spring don’t make it to the max sun angle at noon, which is already up to 61.1 degrees today in Boston. So when it doesn’t make it to 61F, I get grumpy.

    Of course, by this logic, then Boston’s warmest temp all summer would be 71F. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  14. I do not agree that Brady should accept it. It is as much as an admission of guilt and as such a blemish on his career……and it is a clear frame. My guess is the NFL had influence over the appeals court. And I truly mean that. There is far too much in the Berman deposition that goes against Goodells conduct. Berman, a according to facts presented, ruled as he should have. And no…I’m not biased. I had as much trouble with the NFL and manning as I do with Brady. I absolutely abhors unfairness and bullying….no matter who the recipient is.

  15. The green worms are starting to hatch. I saw one on my car this morning. Very tiny but ready to chomp on the leaves. Ugh.

    2. Gross and ugh. I think now is the time the trees need to have something done to them to prevent being defoliated. I don’t know what kinds of trees they attack (other than maple) or how bad they are out this way. Maybe BlackstoneWX does. We have mostly ornamental trees in our yard (as I have said). As I recall the Japanese Maple in our old yard didn’t get attacked but the sugar maples were destroyed.

  16. http://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/hrpt_yrb_nir_100.jpg

    Leads or cracks in arctic sea ice is normal.

    What you are seeing in this picture is not. Several hundreds of square miles of arctic ocean already open and receiving very, very, very early solar insolation from the sun. The ocean then accepts that, warms and a vicious negative feedback ensues melting more ice.

    Watch out over the next few weeks. If you follow either the GFS or the EURO, while eastern Canada and the US are stuck in the cool yuck, western Canada right up into the Beaufort Sea are going to be well above normal temp wise.

    This could be an ominous start to the arctic melt season.

    1. Good comment, Tom.

      I believe it is one reason our northeast US sea level is rising at a higher rate than many other areas.

  17. I’ll agree with Tom, time to move on. Take the suspension, see what they have with Garopolo. Like Tom said, if he’s good, he should go 3-1, at least 2-2.
    And I don’t think taking the suspension as an admission of guilt at this point. Time to end this.

  18. 12Z models don’t look much different. Unless things change, looks like maybe it gets some better warmth by 10-20 May. CFS weeklies show some agreement around that time frame. Until then, looks like more of the same; climo or a little less. meh

  19. 62 here. Delightful. Yummy.
    Don’t need 70s and 80s when it is like this.

    Re Brad: Fight, fight, fight, fight!!

  20. Western Canada’s already relatively warm. Well, it looks like anomalous warmth will reach our Kimmirutian friends soon in northeastern Canada, as the mercury there climbs above freezing for the first time since October. Normal daytime high is -4C, and later this week it’ll rise to 5 or 6C (low 40s). In fact, Boston’s high tomorrow may be very close to Kimmirut’s high. That doesn’t happen often, I guarantee you.

    http://kimmirutweather.com/

      1. Damn Logan is at 55 with a SE wind. What a difference 5 or 6 miles make. With the wind SE, it has to travel about 20 miles over land to get to my house. NE wind is the worst here. 😀

  23. I don’t like the weather that is coming tomorrow but I would rather than then a big time severe weather outbreak parts of the Plains tomorrow.

    1. So around here any snow or mix would be at the back end? And certainly
      would not amount to anything.

        1. Ok, but the latest NAM is not showing any snow, except perhaps a touch at the end.

          BUT, it is that close, eh?

  26. My friend and fellow forecaster flew out to OKC to base for several days. He should have a big chase day tomorrow and possibly another late in the week.

    2. There is no adrenaline rush in weather like that. I loved the storm chasing I’ve been on

  27. TK would you think for that part of the country tomorrow? From the model data it looks like some strong if not long tracked tornadoes are possible. Lets hope that does not materialize.

    1. Yes. I believe there will be some. But it looks more like that type will be isolated and not a “swarm”.

  28. Take heart, potential pattern turn around beginning second week of May. Consistant warm temps soon :). I don’t need models to tell me which way to go but y’all are welcome to if I’m wrong lol

  29. That’s when the pertinent telleconnectors look more favorable. Still looks cool and damp to me till mid May. Weekly CFS looks better by 10-15th, so maybe things will fall in line. Could be one of those years the switch gets flipped to summer with very little sustained spring. We’ll find out.

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