Thursday Forecast

58 Comments

7:38AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 5-9)…
No changes from yesterday’s discussion. Forecast update!
TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of drizzle and fog. Rain returns during the afternoon especially eastern areas. Highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind E to NE increasing to 10-20 MPH inland 15-25 MPH coast, with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely, then ending overnight. Areas of fog. Lows in the 40s. Wind NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Minor coastal flooding possible near high tide time around 11PM.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. A few showers possible. Areas of drizzle and fog. Highs in the upper 40s to middle 50s. Wind NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Areas of drizzle and fog. Lows in the 40s. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Highs from the middle 50s to lower 60s, mildest far inland. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY – MOTHERS DAY: Variably cloudy. Episode of showers mainly late morning to mid afternoon based on current timing. Lows 45-55. Highs 55-65.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 40s. Highs 55-65.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 10-14)…
Fair and milder May 10. Risk of rain at times May 11-13 and somewhat cooler. Fair weather returns May 14, milder again.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 15-19)…
Fair weather early and again late in the period with a few episodes of showers between. Temperatures near normal.

58 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  8. Good morning, I think and thanks for the update TK.

    STINKO DE MAYO!!!

    Day 5 in this series of MISERABLE ROTTEN SPRING WEATHER!!!

    I still like Barry’s description: WHEEL OF MISFORTUNE

    That aptly describes our PUTRID Weather.

    On a good note, the sox won last night and SuckHolz actually pitched a decent game.
    He is clearly Jeckle and Hyde.

    1. I think we may end up on the cooler side of a boundary 2 or 3 days next week but not to the degree we see now. May 11-13 are the questionable days.

      1. Enough already with this facuckta nonsense!!

        Where the bleep is the Sun? I know it’s up there somewhere!

        C’mon, this is getting insane!

  10. Welcome to the UK! Ok, we desperately need the sun to come out, at least for JPDave’s sake. I think he’s gonna crack any minute now if he hasn’t already.

    1. Well there it is:

      it is not uncommon to see pale and shocked locals staring skywards at the sun and applauding.

      1. Indeed.

        So, what happened to the Accuweather prediction of a warm to very warm spring in the northeast? Late February the chatter among Accuweather mets was about how warm (“well above normal”) the Northeast, including New England, would get. I’m not one for hyperbole, but that may have been the worst mid-range prediction in a long time. While March was not cold, it wasn’t exactly warm, either, with a few exceptions thrown in. We know how April unfolded. And May looks like it’s following April’s lead, only this time with rain, clouds, and showers thrown into the mix.

        1. The back half of May should be better.

          But in terms of the long range prediction? I agree. That’s not gonna verify. Sure, there have been some gem days, but by and large, its not been the ideal spring, but when is a spring in Boston ideal? We get this quite bit. But the long and medium range forecast by them was abysmal.
          Cohen had it right with his -AO. That should become less of a factor as the month goes on though. But basically since the equinox, we’ve been in a -AO pattern. And like the last 3 years it seems, the trough in the east, ridge in the west idea rolls on.

          1. Also meant to ad that the telleconnectors look a little better for mid month as well.
            Like I posted last night, I hope may 2005 isn’t lurking. What a disaster.

  12. The Rain was so cold last night with surface temp here around 43 that I thought
    it might mix or flip to Snow. Was still too mild at 850MB, luckily.

  13. I’m going to become a weather therapist. That’s where the big bucks wait…

    1. Right after I posted that the sun briefly popped out here in Reading. 😉

    2. Oh Doctor, what ails me and what is the cure?
      Will it cost much? Will it be painful?

      Oh please help me!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  14. Today is pretty darn awful, not sure how anyone can like a day like today :). I am third in line for the therapy please.

  15. For therapy, take a trip … The good weather is where it is supposed to be in spring: London, Amsterdam, Paris. See the 5-day forecast for Amsterdam (all 70s and sunny): http://www.bbc.com/weather/2759794

    Note, the sunset well after 9pm. Yes, this is their time of glorious weather and many hours of daylight. Their payback is a miserable October and November. I mean dark, wet, and dismal most of the time. We New Englanders, on the other hand, generally shine in October.

  17. International Falls, MN : 82F.

    I see a couple 93F readings in the province of Manitoba.

  18. Seattle weather is what I describe the weather this week.
    TK what are your thoughts for thunderstorms this summer and do you still think those derecheo’s are still possible that you talked about a few months ago?

  19. Thanks tk 🙂

    ….but doesn’t this weather make you appreciate the nice weather, what a joke!!!! Just my opinion.

    1. Of course everyone’s forgotten the 9 consecutive mostly sunny days we had back in April.

      Law of averages. 😀

  20. It’s like this every spring,,, or almost every spring. It’s may!!!! Just think we will be cooling back down by Sept,,,, in just 3 months 24 days,,, who knows maybe earlier. Geez!!!!

    1. It’ll be a slow process later.

      April was the first below normal temperature month since last June.
      May will come in slightly below normal when it’s over due to the very cool first half to 2/3.
      June through October will all be above normal.
      November may still be somewhat above but the jury is out, because of the unknown status of ENSO and other indices at that point.
      December will start a 2 month cold stretch, relative to normal.
      So there is your peek into early 2017 since you like to move forward so fast. 😀

      1. So you still think we’ll have an above normal summer? Your mouth to Gods ear, I hope so.

        Very cool first half? HA! I’d call the last few days down right cold!

        1. We’ll recover a bit. But overall yes, very cool would be an apt description when we reach about May 15.

          And yes we’ll end up above normal this Summer, unless we see a major failure in the development of La Nina, which is not too likely.

          I see the warmth lasting into Autumn for a while. The big problem in 2016 will be drought.

  22. BTW the warmth in west central Canada is not really indicative of what will be happening here as we close out May. That warmth will vanish when the omega pattern breaks down, and basically get flushed southeastward and out of the picture. We may get a piece of it if we break into a warm sector of a passing low once things open up.

    The heat is going to start to build around or just after May 15 in the Southwest to southern Rockies and southwestern Plains. It is this core of warmth that will become the seeds of the warmer pattern to come as we enter the final weeks of spring or early meteorological summer.

    And next week yes things do get moving again but even with that we may end up north of a boundary that keeps us on the cooler side of normal overall. Not 100% sold on this yet but there are some decent indications of such a set-up, so I cannot ignore it.

  23. At least it will be closer to seasonable part of next week.
    Do I spy a rex block at some point ? Not sure what that will do. At this point, its trying everything it can to keep us in a chilly air mass. Persistence, my friends, persistence. UGH
    What I wouldn’t give for a heat wave by the end of the month.

  26. The sky was awesome tonight. Dark grey puffs underneath a deep purple/grey at twilight. I was walking down the road from my son’s school’s awards banquet to where we parked and it was so neat to have that dark purple grey dim light with a misty light rain falling. I love nights like this. 🙂

    1. Well it’s up to you really, but the pattern change later this month should eliminate the need for a heavier jacket.

      1. Well I certainly needed it today and then some. In other words…Memorial Day Weekend about right? 😉

        Thanks TK.

  28. TK – Since you are calling for a cold & dry winter, does that automatically mean below normal snowfall again?

    1. Not necessarily. You can have below normal precipitation and above normal snowfall. In fact, the total precipitation during the snow bomb period of 2015 was fairly close to normal. That was mainly because all the snow events were very low water content due to persistent cold that was in place during the events as well.

  29. 95 around Winnipeg and snow in the mountains of NC today. Unprecedented? No, actually, it isn’t. This is a strong omega block. It’s quite simple and easily explained, and was very well forecast by most guidance.

      1. If crazy = not that unusual, then yes.

        These days, we hear about every detail. We didn’t hear about a lot of 80s and 90s in southern Canada and snow in mountains of the Mid Atlantic or Southeast a few decades ago because the news didn’t tell us about that stuff.

        Now, since everything is a big deal, and everyone has a cell phone, we can’t miss it. 😛

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