Tuesday Forecast

84 Comments

7:32AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 17-21)…
Cloudiness returns today and departs Wednesday as a wave of low pressure passes south of New England. A period of rain may occur tonight mainly from southern MA southward. A weak disturbance will ignite some clouds and perhaps a spot shower on Thursday. High pressure builds in Friday and Saturday with great weather.
TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs in the 60s. Wind W 10-20 MPH with a few higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain overnight mainly southern MA southward. Lows upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind W under 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy start with a chance of rain mainly southeastern MA and RI in the morning. Clearing trend midday and afternoon. Highs in the 60s. Wind W to variable 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Lows upper 40s to middle 50s. Highs upper 60s to middle 70s except cooler eastern coastal areas.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 22-26)…
Watching the evolution of low pressure to the south, a leftover from the recent pattern, that may send cloudiness in during May 22 then bring a chance of occasional wet weather during May 23-25 before improvement follows at the end of the period. Temperatures are likely to cool somewhat through mid period and rebound late.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 27-31)…
Fair weather is expected for most of this period, though there may be a few showers and thunderstorms at some point around May 28-29, which is part of the Memorial Day Weekend. Temperatures near to above normal.

84 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  5. I was one of the lucky ones to see the bright blue green fireball at 12:50AM. It was nice enough to travel northward and in my view between 2 trees as I sat at my desk.

    2. I didn’t hear anything about a fireball TK. Was it expected or just happened to see it? Is a fireball and a meteor the same thing?

    3. Wow – amazing that you were able to see it. Link to it is awesome also. Thank you Scott77.

      I was lucky enough to see one when at Humarock for the Christmas Stroll a few years ago. I didn’t know what it was at the time but you explained, TK.

  7. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Paid a Landscaper to dig up the front yard and plant grass seed.
    Today is day 6 and I do not yet see any little blades of grass protruding.
    I am getting worried. Should see something by now. I’ll give it one more day
    before I call the landscaper. And yes I have been watering every day. 😀

    1. Not sure if this helps, but I did some patching in my yard and it didn’t start coming up until after 10 days and I watered daily as well.

      1. Thank you Scott. That is somewhat reassuring.
        I haven’t done grass in a long time, but my recollection is
        that I started seeing grass within 3-5 days. I am sure it is
        seed dependent. I’ll have to ask the landscaper as He would know
        for sure.

        Thanks again.

        1. 3-5 days is waaaay too soon. It also depends on the type of grass. Some Fescues and especially Ryegrass tend to come up sooner than Bluegrass. Most seeds used around here though are mixtures so you might get a little growth soon but some of the other types will lag behind. Could take 10-14 days for everything to come up. Also, water just enough to keep the soil moist, not soaked.

          1. Thanks Ace. I do not know the type of grass other than to say it is some sort of Sun/Shade Mix.

            And I can say with certainty that I have seen grass coming up within 5 days in the past. Absolutely.

            I fully expect to see something by tomorrow else
            I will be bitterly disappointed.

            It is a royal pain in the butt watering every day.
            It takes me 1/2 an hour to do so.

            1. Number one thing that a lot of people make the mistake of not doing enough is watering . Must water till grass gets established . Cut when blades reach 6″ in height

              1. Thanks John. The landscaper
                will deal with that. He’ll know when to cut it. I no longer cut
                the lawn myself. Last year was
                my last for that crap. 😀

                We have the largest lawn on our
                street. Not that it is really large, but large enough to be a pain when it has to be cut. 😀

    2. Give it another 8-10 days . Sun / shade mixture. Don’t puddle it when you water nice wet gentle spray. I’m on day 3 we can compare . I put down Scott’s water smart sun / shade mix.

  8. It was a standard meteor, probaby on the larger side (bigger than a grapefruit) with chemical makeup to cause a blue green burn. These are not forecastable like meteor showers are.

    1. That was pretty spectacular. I have never witness one that bright. I have seen
      a few smaller, less bright ones in my day, but nothing like last nights.

      You were lucky to have witnessed it.

  10. Hmm interesting….

    I found this:

    Typical Grass Seed Germination Time Periods

    GRASS SEED TYPE NUMBER OF DAYS
    TO GERMINATE
    Bentgrass 10-15
    Bermuda 10-30
    Bluegrass 20-30
    Buffalo Grass 14-28
    Centipede 14-21
    Fescues 7-15
    Rye Grass 5-10
    This chart may indicate the amount of time until grass first appears, or until the majority of seed has sprouted. Growing conditions greatly affect this process.

    I must have been using Rye grass in the past to see growth in 5 days.

    Looks like I need to be a bit more patient. 😀
    plus it hasn’t been exactly warm out either. The next few days should help immensely.

    Thanks for the input all, it is much appreciated.

    2. Rye Grass comes up fast but it is also one of the worst grasses in terms of drought/heat/pest resistance. It’s often planted on newly constructed properties to provide fast green growth but seldom lasts. Just be glad its not coming up yet as your landscaper must have used good quality seed from a mixture of more resistant grasses.

  11. JPDave,

    Its also been a little cool at night as well. Have some patience. It wont germinate as fast in cool soil.

      1. Yes, thanks both. True I was not considering that.
        I am basically a very impatient person, a virtue I was not blessed with at birth I am sorry to day. I do try, but fail often.

        I’ll keep slinging the water at it and see what happens. 😀

        1. I am also not a patient person. If you remember, a year or so ago, when I washed my iPhone in the pouch of my sweatshirt, I put it in a bag of rice. I was patient enough to leave it in the bag for the required 24 hours. However, I found the need to try and call it every hour or so while in the bag to see if it worked.

  12. I realize the Almanac is going to get a lot of things wrong with weather but no reason to get the location of the MLB All Star Game wrong. All Star Game is In San Diego this year not in Baltimore.
    12th-15th. Hefty thunderstorms push to Atlantic Coast; could threaten the MLB All-Star Game at Oriole Park at Camden Yards

    FYI according to this Almanac July 1st – 3rd batten down the hatches as there calling for violent thunderstorms. We shall see.

  13. I agree but I read it for a good laugh. There are people I know love it and thinks it is very accurate. In a month they may get 2-3 things correct. No reason they should have gotten the location wrong about the All Star Game.
    6z GFS does hint at some instability for thunderstorms around the time period TK was mentioning.

  16. TK, what’s the chance we miss most of the low next Tuesday? GFS has it a touch south to do much. Although we could use the rain.

            1. It’ll get here. I used to go through the same kind of feeling in my college days.

              1. Last year it was 49 degrees and pouring rain on June 1st. I had m annual school fundraiser golf tourney that got flooded out and postponed. The first couple weeks of June last year wasn’t great. As women May last year. Best weather for my money in the warm season really is mid June thru September.

  18. 12z GFS shows some pretty good instability next Thursday for the thunderstorm development to the west of SNE. Pretty impressive EHI values NYC area Mid Atlantic. To me this looks like a situation we see a lot of where there will be good thunderstorm development to our west and as the cells approach SNE they will weaken as they move in east.
    12z CMC for same time period is not all impressive. Its interesting that the GFS has been pretty consistent in showing instability in that 5/26 5/27 time period.

    1. Since the MeteoCentre only goes out 240 hours for the GFS, difficult to say
      how/if this instability translates to NE. You are probably correct that it will
      diminish in our area, if for nothing else, still plenty of cooler water immediately
      to our South. Western sections may get into it. Something to watch.
      Those are impressive EHI numbers, probably being generated mostly due to
      the high Cape. Not sure what the actual helicity values would be there. As it gets closer, we shall monitor.

      With nothing else to look at this far out, sure looks like a possible
      severe weather out break at least for parts of the mid-West/Ohio Valley.

      It will be most interesting to see how it unfolds. Thanks for the heads up
      JJ. Just been too busy lately to have a look.

      1. 12Z Euro keeps it confined pretty much to Texad, Oklahoma and Kansas with up to Moderate risk for t0rnadoes.
        Diddly Squat this way. 😀

  19. Euro has a decent ocean low about 6 days from now …… Tracking NNW into SW New England from the western Atlantic. Seems to be concensus from the GFS also.

    Perhaps the ocean could chill the surface, but it looks to be a cut off system sitting in an overall mild to warm airmass.

        1. Looks like it hits the south coast with a little rain on sunday, then cuts off :(.
          But, it only looks to hang around for 48-72 hours, then moves out. The flow looks more progressive than the last cut off we dealt with. Hopefully that’s right and it gets out by mid week. Don’t need that hanging over us for memorial weekend.

          1. Sunday MAY be a bit fast with that. Possible but not sold on it. I’m thinking Monday-Wednesday is the target for that thing hanging around. It’s not exactly the same as last time, in that this is really just a cut off left behind in a changing pattern, and not the big omega we had previously.

  20. I am just looking in the future for things to keep an eye just like I do with snow threats in the winter now looking in the future for thunderstorm threats.

    1. Absolutely ……

      Last Friday was a start of getting some humidity in here ahead of a cold front. Need more of that to increase the chances of convection.

    1. Last night, Eric Fisher aired the video from which this photo was captured.
      Pretty cool.

  22. It’s looking more unstable to me Thursday. I’m going to add a chance of showers and thunderstorms (not a widespread rain, just pop up stuff) which may be aided by a sea breeze front in portions of the region.

    2. Hmm. 18z cape pretty minimal. You feeling it is just enough. Or u feel gfs is out to lunch? Curious

  23. TK – Do you foresee any more chill the rest of this month? Is there a cold rain for next Tuesday?

    1. We’re losing the ability to really drive chill in. Cool, yes, mainly from ocean sources, or an occasional Canadian air mass. Even next week, if we get into wet weather from the cut off it won’t be as chilly as the episode of unsettled weather before.

    1. See what patient will do 😉

      In all cander, my patience can be pretty non-existent too.

      1. Indeed, I don’t know what it is. It gets me in trouble often. It will still take some time for it all to come up and fill in, but at least I can see it now.

    1. Excellent and always nice to have done. I had an estimate for edging, weeding and mulch. It is in good shape anyway since house was on market. Came to 1400….I nearly passed out. Looks as if we add that to list of stuff we need to do.

  26. JPD…In case you don’t already know, Logan did hit 70 today! 😀

    “Patience” is most certainly NOT your middle name for sure. 😉

    1. Logan should drop to the upper 50s tomorrow and/or Thursday with a sea breeze.

  27. Good morning. So far, another beauty of a day.
    Interesting to see the spread between my house and Logan.

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