Wednesday Forecast

84 Comments

7:33AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 18-22)…
Nothing atypical about the weather this spring so far other than perhaps being significantly drier than average. The next few days will exemplify more of the typical weather we get around here, and that example will be furthered beyond this 5-day period. But I’m getting ahead of myself. First we have nice weather today as weak high pressure noses in between 2 low pressure waves, one that went south of the region keep its rain offshore last night, and another that will take a similar track but may put a bit of rain on the South Coast tonight. During Thursday, a disturbance from the west will make the air colder aloft and therefore we’ll set up an unstable atmosphere and pop scattered showers, which may contain hail. A few of them may produce thunder, but that is more of a long shot than a certainty. These showers may not reach coastal areas due to another ocean breeze which will stabilize those areas. High pressure builds in Friday and hangs on Saturday with great weather. By Sunday we’ll have to watch low pressure to the south for at least cloudiness and potentially wet weather, though at this point I am not sure if the wet weather reaches all of the area during that time. More to come on this system…
TODAY: Sunshine giving way to clouds at times, especially later in the day. Highs middle 60s to lower 70s but falling back to the upper 50s many coastal areas. Light wind with sea breezes developing.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A period of rain possible near the South Coast. Lows upper 40s to middle 50s. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered showers developing midday and especially afternoon, particularly inland locations where some showers may produce small hail and possibly some thunder. Highs in the 60s except cooling back to upper 50s coastal areas. Wind variable 5-15 MPH with sea breezes.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers evening. Showers and clouds vanish overnight. Lows upper middle 40s to lower 50s. Wind light variable becoming N.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs in the 70s, some upper 60s coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH but a few coastal sea breezes possible.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain, especially south. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 23-27)…
Cut off low pressure brings a good chance of unsettled weather during the May 23-25 period. Fair and warmer weather returns later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 28-JUNE 1)…
Warm start, a few showers/thunderstorms possible somewhere in the middle of the period, then fair and slightly cooler later in the period.

84 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  2. Thank you, TK. Another stretch of lovely spring weather. Baby leaves are being replaced by full adult leaves. Lawns are struggling a bit but still on the greener side. When you say chance of rain south on Sunday, does that mean south shore?

    1. It’s more generalized for the chance in CT RI and southeastern MA. I’m not sure how quickly the low comes northward as it will be cut off from major steering flow.

  5. As of 9AM, wind is EAST at the PIT already. That didn’t take long.
    That chance of Boston reaching 65 likely has been flushed down the toilet.

  7. Logan at 10AM obs (9:54)

    Temperature: 56.0 °F (13.3 °C)
    Dewpoint: 42.1 °F (5.6 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 60 %
    Wind: East at 11.5 MPH

    Ocean is 50, therefore the highest Logan could possibly reach is something
    like 58-62 and 62 would be a big stretch. More likely 58 or 59. JR this morning
    posted a 60 for Logan’s high today. We shall see.

  8. Rinse and repeat Sat night into Wednesday. Blocky pattern setting up into at least mid next week if you enjoy intermittent showery rains and lack of sunshine. Temps should be seasonal and not as raw at least.

    1. Shhh. We’re done with that kind of Bullshit! NO MAS! NO MAS!

      Seriously, we ave suffered enough. On with the nicer weather please.

      I reject this. I reject this. I reject this. I reject this. I refuse to accept!!!

    2. I was about to post that the first half of next week looks pretty dismal, but at least its not as raw.
      I keep hearing about some sustained warmer weather and dry conditions, but it doesn’t seem to pan out. It keeps getting pushed back again and again. Rain I can deal with, we can use it, but the lack of better stuff in the temperature department I’m getting impatient.

    1. Right,

      All models show any instability confined to Western Sections West of
      Worcester. NOTHING showing up in Eastern sections.

  11. As far as that thunderstorm potential later next week latest 6z run of GFS keeps the best instability west of SNE. There is some for western areas. Will continue to watch but this seems to be the trend with the GFS for late next week.

  12. Law of averages would have us get several cutoff low’s this spring since we’ve been spared of these in recent years. I don’t see any real heat in the short- and mid-range outlook. A chance of heat building by the end of the month, but that forecast is cloaked in a cape of significant uncertainty. Given the persistence of easterlies and continued occasional shots of cooler Canadian air when we do get westerlies, my guesstimate is that we won’t see consistent summer warmth until June. And, it could be mid to late June before we’re in summer mode.

    What should be noted is that not far from here – several hundred miles south a different story has unfolded. There they haven’t experienced the kind of cool spring we have and I believe that the temperature differences between, say, Boston and DC, will be significant the remainder of the spring and into summer. Perhaps our pattern will be so stubborn as to keep coastal NE mired in relatively cool weather all summer. Here, the emphasis is on coastal. I highly doubt this. But, it shouldn’t be discounted. I say this because of how far off base the forecasts were several months ago about a “warm spring.” That clearly didn’t happen. Predictions of a hot summer may also fall by the wayside. We shall see.

    1. I agree. What I’ve seen so far of this supposed “hot summer” coming to fruition might be a red herring.

      It is still only May 18th. I suppose that its like calling winter off in November! Long way to go. But, I like my warm season warm like JPDave and you like your snow season, so I get antsy and nervous.

      1. Summer begins in late June. 🙂 It’s mid May. 🙂

        We are experiencing spring.

        1. Yes, but it is beginning to look like that Winter a few years ago. The cold is coming, the cold is coming, the cold is coming. NEVER MIND, it didn’t come.

          The warmth is coming… 😀 😀 😀

          1. I don’t really agree. The pattern is close to where it was expected to be and the transition is underway. Part of that transition is next week’s cut off event which is not a repeat of the large scale omega.

  13. TYPICAL spring weather. Other than dryness, this is a textbook New England spring. 🙂

    Also, the upcoming unsettled stretch, also typical, is not a repeat of classic omega from before. It’s a cutoff.

    Also, no big high to the north this time. You’ll notice the difference in temps.

    1. Agree with all that you just stated, however, what are your feelings about
      the supposed “Hot Summer”. The way things are going I am in camp
      Joshua and BlackstoneWx.

      Btw, not that I am complaining as the Mrs. would be in tough shape with
      a Hot Summer. What I consider a perfect Summer would be along stretch
      of Dry air with temps in the mid 80s. I know that is fantasy and it ain’t a gonna happen. Short of that, I would like to keep the number of 90 degree and humind days to a MINIMUM. Last Summer was nearly perfect in that
      regard.

      We shall see.

  14. You can believe it or not but the GFS has it quite warm here by end of next week with temps pushing 90 across interior areas next Friday the 27th:

    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfct&rh=2016051806&fh=228&r=us_ne&dpdt=

    Note as well those are early PM temps, not the actual highs.

    Then mostly 70’s/80’s through Memorial Day weekend away from the coast. Not bad at all if this pans out but we may have to deal with a period of showers/storms coming through at some point Sat/Sun, again if you believe the GFS.

    1. It should not come as a surprise. ECMWF supports this with mid to upper 80s as potential highs late next week.

      Unlike the previous unsettled stretch we have no big high to the north waiting with a supply of cold air.

    2. Thanks for posting, Mark.

      I know Mike Dorfman who was on the video trying to walk into the 109mph wind the other day on Mt. Washington. I cooked for him and his crew in the summer of 2014.

    3. Beautiful Mark. I’ve said here dozens of times that Memorial Day weekend used to be Massachusetts ski weeken at Tuckerman……long, long time ago

  16. TK, I agree that this spring is not truly anomalous.

    What I am saying is that the relatively cool spring we’ve experienced: a. has felt relatively cooler than normal in part because of the mild winter; b. was not forecast by almost anyone as far as I can tell. Dr. Judah Cohen was a lone voice back in late Feb/early March when he wrote that thought some persistent cold would return to NE in late March and last a while. I think he’s generally been accurate with this particular forecast (I realize he’s been wrong in the past), in stark contrast to Accuweather, for instance, where all the mets in unison declared we’d get a warm spring and it would happen by the middle of March.

    1. Even a cool spring is anomalous only because it’s being compared to “normal” which is virtually never a reality. 🙂

      It hasn’t even been that cloudy. Sun hours are above average this spring, yet the general public seems to be traumatized…by weather we expect. I simply do not understand.

      1. I’m not sure I concur that the public is “traumatized” metaphorically speaking. If we to be politically correct, disappointed would be more suitable. This spring, IMO, thus far has been better than previous ones if you enjoy sunshine and seasonable temps. However, the general audience has a tendency to become disappointed when meteorologist favor one forecast that just doesn’t pan out. I believe that to be a very normal reaction even if considered an overreaction.

        1. Disappointed with normalcy. 🙂

          I guess somehow the general public is disappointed if every spring does not feature above normal temps, below normal rain, and above normal sun. GOOD ONE. Time for them all to move to San Diego. 😀

  17. TK, Alisonrod: Indeed, we’ve had some absolute gems of days in terms of sunshine and seasonable temps this spring. As I mentioned a few weeks ago, this is spring in slow motion, which is enjoyable as you get to see flowering, budding, and greening of everything in gradual transition as opposed to what we often see – a quick changeover from winter to summer with only a few `true’ spring days.

    And yes, TK, normal or average is not grounded in reality. In philosophical terms, ontologically speaking, average patients, physicians, ballplayers, teachers, but also spring, summer, winter, and fall, are `artificial’ constructs.

  18. 12z GFS is north with the storm over the weekend. Looks rainy Saturday night and early Sunday, perhaps even some heavier rain on the CT shoreline and south coast of MA/RI. Timing at least looks good for a mostly dry day Saturday.

    1. Mark sorry about your Islanders. I was watching that game five against Tampa and from the get go they looked a step behind and when they got down two goals I said to myself there not coming back in this game. Good season winning a playoff series for the first time since 1993.

      1. Thanks JJ. I cant complain about the season but the TB series was a let down. To lose games 3 and 4 in OT on home ice was completely demoralizing to them, especially considering they pretty much outplayed TB in those games. I knew they weren’t going to come back in Game 5. TB has a good team and will give Pittsburgh a run for their money.

        Ahh well, onto baseball season and my Yankees………….On second thought, when does hockey season start again?

        1. That game three giving up the tying goal with 38 seconds left is tough and to me when that happened Tampa had the momentum going into OT
          Tough start to the road trip for the Yankees losing first two in Arizona. Yankees can’t afford a bad road trip here after gaining some momentum with a 7-3 home stand.
          The starting pitching outside of Tanka and CC has not been good this season. Severino I am still trying to figure what happened to him this season so far. Clearly not the same pitcher that was called up last August.

  19. I kind of worry that the hammer, as far as heat, is going to be dropped on us this summer.

    The earth’s temp is running nearly +1C against the recent 30 year climo average.

    Western and Central Canada are parched, having hit 90F already a few times this spring and also have to be running incredible monthly temperature anomalies.

    Once La Nina kicks in and already the Equitorial Pacific is showing some negative SST anomalies, I’d favor more of a western US/Canada trof, with a central US Ridge.

    When that ridge pokes occasionally eastward and sends pieces of what I believe will be very hot northern Plains and southern Canada airmasses east-southeastward into New England on W or WNW surface winds, I think we are going to challenge or slightly exceed 100F this summer at least twice and have a handful of additional days in the mid-upper 90s.

    1. Even more of an impact than the overall global temp is the regional pattern and the dry soil. They are going to heat up fast, as opposed to wetter soils in a wet pattern.

  20. Logan still ONLY 56 at 2PM. Figures.

    On the plus side, the bright sunshine and Easterly flow has the current
    water temperature at:

    Water Temperature (WTMP): 51.8 °F

  21. Tk can I get a forecast for Plymouth all day Sunday will it be dry . Possibly two jobs going on there thanks

    1. At this point I would not count on the entire day being dry, but timing is not a certainty.

  22. 3Pm Logan DOWN to 55 with East Wind at 15 mph. Geez when will that Bleepity bleep bleep East wind GO AWAY????????????????

    Oh I know, the 4th of July.

      1. Yes, but on July 4th it would be warmer than 55, one would hope anyway. Who the hell knows around here. 😀

  23. Tom, I agree with your assessment. I think it is likely we see a prevailing pattern of (north and south) westerlies over a dry, warm-to-hot land mass: = summer heat. And yes, 100 is a good possibility, especially inland. Caveat is that we continue to see a pattern in which our prevailing wind is an easterly, either directly east, northeast or southeast. Not all the time, but a good portion of time. Looking at Environment Canada I see that frost advisories continue on an almost daily basis across the Maritimes and New Brunswick. What this means is an E/NE wind will continue to be a rather cool wind at the coast, even without a cold or cool high to our northwest. Inland is a different story. This is why I think the next cut-off low will feature temps in the low to mid 50s along the coast. Are there more of these in store for us, or short impulses of cooler air from continental Canada? No-one knows, but I wouldn’t discount it as a possibility even after a temporarily warmer air mass impacts us at the end of May.

  24. Sox lose to KC again, this time 3-2. Jackie Bradley Jr. continued his hitting streak.
    Now up to 23 consecutive games that he has hit safely. Getting into Impressive
    territory. I sure hope he can keep it going. He’s gone almost a whole month
    with getting at least one hit in each and every game. Players would die for this and most
    players NEVER accomplish this throughout their entire careers.

  25. Here is Dr. Cohen’s Most recent blog entry:

    http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

    Excerpt. (here we go again!!!!)

    The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is currently positive but is predicted to trend negative over the next two weeks.

    Currently temperatures are below normal in the Eastern US and a negative AO trend favors potentially more below normal temperatures for Southeastern Canada and the Northeastern US.

    However next week with the AO turning negative and with northern Canada dominated by positive geopotential height anomalies, increases the possibility of more troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies in the Northeastern US and could bring another round of below normal temperatures.

    Will it ever end???????? This will take us pretty much to June and then what?

      1. On the flip side, today through the first half of Saturday should be very nice except for the hiccup tomorrow afternoon/evening in inland locales.

      1. Yup. I just feel a disappointing summer is ahead. AGAIN I’ll believe all this long range warmth forecast when I see it.

        1. I don’t think the summer will be all that disappointing. In fact I think very warm to hot weather lasts into parts of early fall. Summer is still more than 1 month away. Lots of time to iron out the details.

      2. We don’t usually launch into 80s consistently until late June, so this should come as no surprise.

  27. All you fans of 3 H weather don’t worry its only May. It will come. The question is just how much heat and humidity will have.

    1. I seem to recall winter being written off in December 2014 before it had officially begun…..I tend to like the idea of waiting and watching and in the meantime enjoying.

  28. Given some data received over the past few days, I feel obliged to make a climate post. NOAA and NASA have both rated April 2016 as Earth’s warmest April on record, by massive margins (.28C and .24C, above the previous April records, respectively). 12th consecutive warmest month globally on record in the NOAA database. Arctic sea ice extent by far lowest on record, and fading fast. There are more statistics, but these are the important headline numbers. 2016 will almost certainly be the warmest year on record. This is being caused duly by El Nino and human induced warming through greenhouse gas emissions.

    Here are some Arctic sea ice graphs. Welp.

    https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

    Also, this graph has been making the rounds of late. Probably my favorite climate graph ever in terms of how clearly it shows our climate “spiraling” out of control…..

    http://assets.climatecentral.org/images/uploads/news/5_9_16_Andrea_TempSpiralEdHawkins.gif

    That animation really makes you appreciate the overall trend and how extreme 2016 is. We’d be gone very quickly if this rate of warming kept up year over year. Luckily it doesn’t work that way, but it won’t take too long to get to the dreaded +2.0C, and beyond.

    1. That is more than a little unnerving. I noticed a big jump in the 1980s but it goes too fast for me to see what year. However, it is consistent to say the very least.

      Thank you. Keep at Em, weatherwx. I’m counting on your generation. Heaven knows ours cannot figure how to work together

      1. Thanks Vicki! The big spike in the 1980s is probably around 1982-1983, as that was another of the strongest El Nino events on record.

  29. Interesting that NASA and NOAA pronounce the world is a torch every month. Except our little corner of the globe (i. e. SE Canada and the NE corner of the USA). Maybe in a warming world, we’re the lone heat sink

    1. Very curious. We are, however, the area where the tides are rising the most. And drought has become a given.

    2. And here’s the catch: The persistent cool anomalies in the North Atlantic/Greenland and northeastern North America is probably the scariest part. Hints at a major slowdown/ pending shutdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. And is something that climate models have forecast.

      1. Sorry…I was lost on that. If you have a minute and could post a link so I can digest the info, I’d sure appreciate it. No hurry at all. Thank you 🙂

        1. It’s definitely some pretty complicated stuff, and I’m no expert on it… The Wiki pages do a pretty good job though. The first link discusses the circulation in general. Pick through it- altogether it’s a little long winded but it’s very informative.

          https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermohaline_circulation

          Embedded within this is a link to a page specifically referencing a shutdown, but I’ll link that directly also. The second sentence is quite misleading, citing research that is several years old and now largely obsolete.

          https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shutdown_of_thermohaline_circulation

          Hope this helps!

  31. The big spike in the 1980s is unrelated to El Nino. It was when Russia shut down most of the climate stations in Siberia. It is also the time when budget cuts by the US government lead to a replacement of many human observers with automated stations.

    Keep in mind this is regarding the 1980s, not what is being reported currently.

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