Friday Forecast

79 Comments

8:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 20-24)…
Transition from old pattern to new pattern is now underway. We’ll have a top 10 day today with high pressure in control and plenty of sunshine, but there will be some fair-weather clouds popping up as well, and you’ll also notice a bit of a hazy look to the sky, which is another plume of smoke from wildfires in Canada being carried in the upper level winds across the northeastern US. Two low pressure areas will impact the weather between Saturday and Tuesday. The first one will be a progressive system that will send high cloudiness into the region Saturday which will thicken up Saturday evening and be followed by some rain, especially in CT, RI, and southeastern MA, overnight and into early Sunday. During Sunday afternoon, any rain from this first system will be exiting offshore but some instability may trigger a few showers over interior MA and southern NH. The second low pressure area will be a system that cuts off from the main steering flow Monday and drifts northward across New England Tuesday, bringing areas of rain, though this will not be a big storm, nor will it hang around as long as cut offs can do sometimes…
TODAY: Lots of sun, but some fair-weather clouds midday into afternoon, and some smoke in the upper atmosphere adding a hazy look to the sky. Highs upper 60s coast, 70s interior. Wind light NW to variable but light coastal sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 50s. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Sun often filtered through high cloudiness, which will start to thicken very late in the day. Highs 60s coast, lower 70s interior. Wind light SE.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely southeastern CT, RI, and southeastern MA. Chance of rain elsewhere. Lows in the 50s. Wind light SE to E.
SUNDAY: Mainly cloudy. Chance of rain in the morning mainly RI and eastern MA. Isolated to scattered showers possible north central MA into southern NH in the afternoon. Highs in the 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Rain risk increases later in the day. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.
TUESDAY: Mainly cloudy. Periods of rain, decreasing later in the day. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 25-29)…
Upper low departs by early May 25 and is quickly replaced by weak high pressure, fair weather, and much warmer air. Warm but with a risk of showers and thunderstorms at times May 26-27 with a front in the area (a little earlier timing than previously forecast). The Saturday and Sunday of Memorial Day Weekend (May 28-29) currently look mainly dry and quite warm as high pressure builds over the region, though coastal areas may end up cooler depending on wind direction. Plenty of fine tuning to come on this forecast.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 30-JUNE 3)…
Memorial Day May 30 still looks warm and mainly dry. Showers and thunderstorms are possible on May 31, depending on the timing of a front. Early indications are for fair and cooler weather the first few days of June.

79 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  3. Thanks TK and Happy Birthday! 🙂

    Chris Lambert mentioned on air the smoke overhead. Since I hadn’t heard anymore about the Canadian wildfires I assumed they were long since put out.

    1. Unfortunately not and there are plenty also burning up in Siberia. Lots of hazy days coming this summer, whether it’s from a Bermuda High pumping in Midwest/Ohio Valley pollution or smoke from fires.

    2. I hesitated a bit because some guidance still has a front nearby. For now I’m going to lean toward that front staying far enough west and northwest to impact only far western and northern New England.

  5. 52F out at the harbor buoy.

    Light winds, fairly sunny all day and a mild to warm airmass. Let’s see if 55F, maybe 56F is attainable in the shallow top layer sometime between 2 and 6pm today.

    1. Boston Buoy is 51.6 to be precise.
      Stellwagen is still at 49.5

      The water is still pretty damn chilly to say the least.

      I wouldn’t want to fall in.

  7. TK – I like your weekend forecast better, relatively speaking, of course I would prefer it to be totally bone dry for Saturday night – Monday. The TV mets are pretty much hinting at a nor’easter with rain arriving right after sunset Saturday and a widespread washout for Sunday.

    1. Too progressive for an all day rain Sunday, but it probably won’t really clear at all unless we’re really lucky.

    1. It will be a mix of enjoying the beautiful weather and some of my favorite music. 🙂

  9. So today is TK’s birthday. Happy Birthday TK! May all of you birthday wishes come true!

      1. IS that the real age 49? Next one is a biggie, eh?

        When was I 49? Oh, long long time ago. 😀

  12. News article on CNN’s website regarding high temp of 123.8F hit in India yesterday.

    Apparently, monsoon of last 2 summers has greatly underachieved and the intense sun is baking a parched land.

  14. Thanks again all!

    JP Dave .. Yes I will be 50 next year, and it will be on the same day of the week I was born (Saturday). 😀

    3. I have no idea the day of the I was born. I would have to look it up.
      Frankly, I really don’t care.

      I was, however, born on my Father’s birthday, so that was pretty cool.

      1. Amazing. Too bad it is not indicative of the true water temperature. In any case, it won’t hurt that’s for sure. Any little bit of warming helps to elevate the “real” temperature. At least
        it is progress.

  16. TK – How does it look for Saturday evening thru midnight? I will be outside most of the time.

  17. That was a toasty 12z GFS run in the mid to long range.

    Though weak, still a signal for something emerging out of the tropical Atlantic, headed NW into the U.S. East coast mid range.

    Transitioning from El Niño to La Niña, I would not be surprised if the tropics got started early close to the U.S. East coast. Certainly, the central Atlantic and the Cape Verde season is a ways off.

      1. I think the consensus is for an average season, which will be more active in comparison to the last few seasons.

    1. Yeah saw that. Not a fan of the title:

      “India records highest temperature ever”

      Ever? So they know India’s temp everyday for the last 4.5 billion years???

  20. Pretty good instability next Friday with the exception of eastern parts of SNE with latest 12z GFS run. Thursday instability is in the eastern areas along with rest of SNE. Only exception Cape and Islands

  21. Weather around, on top, and on the bottom of, the world:

    It’s 123F in Phalodi, in the Indian state of Rajasthan.

    It’s 22F and snowing in Alert, Nunavut (Canada).

    It’s 32F and clear in Irkutsk, Russia.

    It’s 46F and cloudy at Keflavik, Iceland.

    It’s 57F and cloudy in Amsterdam, the Netherlands.

    It’s 77F with a passing thunderstorm in Rangoon, Burma.

    It’s 59F and partly cloudy in Pyongyang, North Korea.

    It’s 84F and sunny in Fortaleza, Brazil.

    It’s -54F with light snow grains at the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station, Antarctica.

    It’s 67F at Logan Airport in Boston.

    1. As for Antarctica, emperor penguins should be starting their mating process. 😉 Their chicks are soooooo cute and fuzzy. I believe they arrive in July or August. 😀

  23. Clang clang, Ding ding….

    2:50PM Boston Buoy report:

    Water Temperature (WTMP): 56.5 °F

    1. JPD, isn’t that “The Trolley Song?” 😉 We could rewrite it to “The Buoy Song” 🙂

      1. Well, “Clang Clang went the trolley” is from
        Meet me in St. Louis, one of my wife’s favorite movies.
        But I have heard those things dinging away out there, so
        I suppose it is a combination of the two.

        The WHW BUOY SONG! I like it.

    1. I would say a thermometer issue. Even the Concord NH (77) may be suspect as well. TK may have a different opinion.

  26. Subject: Memorial Day Weekend.
    Objective: To try to predict the weather for that time period with the best accuracy possible.
    Tools: Models, experience, intuition.
    Method: Examine model runs, use experience and part intuition to interpret them, know what to use, and what to discard, and come up with the scenario you feel most likely.
    Comments: ECMWF is performing far better than any other model at this time.
    Conclusion: The forecast above basically stands as is at this time.
    Further Comments: Boston has not hit 80 yet but will do so either Wednesday or Thursday of the coming week. Some locations may hit 90 by May 29 or 30.

  27. “Duh nuh nuh nuh nuh nuh
    They say it’s your Birthday…..
    Duh nuh nuh nuh nuh nuh
    It’s my birthday too yeah…”

    Hope you’re having a great one TK!”

    2. Whoa what….it is your birthday too?

      And I think you sound a bit more like John than Paul !!

      1. Nope – I’m just serenading TK a la Anthony Michael Hall in 16 candles…. I’m a Feb birthday – ironic for someone snow-phobic! More often that not I can be found hiding under my bed around my bday time bc of a pending Nor’Easter….

        1. Feb is a great month….we will have interventions to help if you like

          I had to look up that 16 candles

          This is one I have fond memories of…including at my 16th. I not sure whether I liked the song more of the fact my parents didn’t like guy I was dating. I was a “charming” teenager 🙂

  28. Happy Birthday TK.

    Also, finally summer vacation… Bring on the Summer Heat!! Bring on the POOL and Beach Weather!!!

    Now the next week is still going to be nail biting as I have no idea how I did on the chemistry final.. was a bunch of colorful metaphors. 😉

  29. I am liking the weather outlook for Memorial Day weekend more and more with each passing day.

  32. There’d be a lot of disappointed snow lovers this morning if it were January, as we watch the potential “Nor’easter” slip slide away far to our south as a weak 1000mb+ wave. Looks like we stay mainly dry until Tuesday now.

  34. What a quick temperature rise this morning.

    I guess top of Mt Washington being 43F should not make that a surprise.

      1. Been one of those mornings. Not bad at all. Just pulling together a lot of plans to be at a certain point with projects (inside and out), coordinating project and fun events heading into the summer. I need to get to a certain point this weekend and part of next week before we hit next weekend which will be a mix of a few projects and lots of fun stuff, a lot of it outside.

        1. Well fortunately for the most part you will have good weather beyond Tuesday to enjoy outside fun 😀

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