Sunday Forecast

59 Comments

8:12AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 22-26)…
No changes. Just a forecast update on this next-to-last Sunday of May.
TODAY: Mainly cloudy. Episodic showers. Highs in the 60s but may stay in upper 50s immediate coast. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mainly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Mainly cloudy. Rain risk increases evening and night. Highs in the 60s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mainly cloudy. Periods of rain, decreasing later in the day. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs upper 70s to lower 80s.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 27-31)…
Memorial Day Weekend, extended version for some, starting on Friday May 27 and may extend beyond Monday May 30 to Tuesday May 31 for some, but either way this 5-day period will not offer all that much change, as upper level high pressure dominates but a couple of surface fronts try to push through the region. This pattern is usually mostly dry and warm, but will bring a couple opportunities for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Based on my current view of things, May 27 and 31 would be the most likely days for this, but we will probably have to keep an eye out for them at times over the Saturday-Monday period too. Temperatures above to much above normal during this period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 1-5)…
On the dry side much of the time but with cooler temperatures in general during the first several days of June. A couple passing showers may occur around June 2-3 and a rain risk may present itself by the end of the period.

59 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK and hope everyone is having good weekend so far.
    From NWS for tomorrow night
    We will need to keep an eye on the possibility of some nocturnal
    thunderstorm activity for southeastern MA and RI Mon night.
    All models show a rapid influx of unstable air into southeastern
    sections between midnight and daybreak Tue. Total Totals
    Indices reach 55 and there is an indication of very unstable lapse
    rates of 7C from 700-500 mb. 0-6 km bulk shear values increase to
    45-55 kts from the south-southeast at that time, too. However,
    with cool northeast surface flow, there is no Convective Available
    Potential Energy (CAPE). This is not the usual situation to
    expect a chance of thunderstorms, but we have veering of wind
    with height (WAA) and increasing speeds with height… so, could
    see some organized, but scattered and elevated thunderstorms,
    especially RI and southeast MA late Mon night.

  2. Thanks TK!! Heading up to Attitash with the family starting Friday until Tuesday and loving the forecast!!

  3. Thanks TK. I think much of eastern MA actually gets a nice day today. HRRR showing lots of sunshine and near 70 away from the immediate coast this afternoon.

  4. Thank you TK.

    May I ask how weather looks around Kenneybunkport (sp?) on Memorial Day weekend. Not for me but for friends who have an outdoor wedding to attend. Thanks you once again.

    1. I’m encouraged so far. Looks warm overall but we will not be without the threat of a few showers/storms at times. No washouts.

        1. As always, stay tuned for updates. We’re still just close enough to the back end of this pattern and the cooler shot coming in early June to make me a little less confident than usual.

  5. Thanks TK !

    Happy Birthday Hadi !

    Can sense the ocean temps have risen some. While it is cool, the NE wind is not ice cold.

    1. Boston buoy 52.7
      Stellwagen 51.4
      Cape Cod 50.5 (Station 44018 (LLNR 560) – CAPE COD – 24 NM East of Provincetown, MA)
      Gulf of Main 50.0 (Station 44005 (LLNR 820) – GULF OF MAINE – 78 NM East of Portsmouth, NH)
      Jeffrey’s Ledge 48.9 (Station 44098 – Jeffrey’s Ledge, NH (160))
      Nantucket 48.2 (Station 44008 (LLNR 827) – NANTUCKET 54NM Southeast of Nantucket)

      Still pretty chilly

  7. Terrible day for the women and men who protect us. Thank you to all the police. I am very sorry for your loss

    2. Agree and I echo your thank you to them. I know I’ve said this before, and I realize the news loves to spotlight the few “bad apples” in the various police forces, but the truth is, you can find a bad apple or 2 in every bushel you look in. It’s not just police, it’s anywhere. In that media-fueled obsession of the bad side we can forget about the other 99%, and we should not. I know several officers personally. They are good people and do what is often a thankless job while being the target of misinformation-infused dislike and animosity.

      1. Absolutely. And horrifically since the media obsession with the bad few, there has been an increase in shooting of our police.

        1. A bad officer is a bad officer because they are a bad person, not because they are an officer. Apply this to anything.

  9. No not in your area Vicki. The SPC will update this around 1:30pm this afternoon and will see if there are any changes to their outlook.

  10. No instability being shown on 12z GFS run for Friday or Saturday. Will see if we make through the entire weekend rain free.

    1. GFS seems to throw a weak bubble of high pressure in SE Canada early during the Memorial Day Weekend. I’d assume that might cut down on the warm/humid conditions and therefore, instability.

  12. 12z runs of American models indicating bit of instability for interior parts of SNE Tuesday.

  13. Thanks TK for keeping the weekend dry! For me the grand finale will be working at BC Commencement tomorrow. A busy day for me to say the least. My day begins at 5:30 am until around 2:30 pm or so. 😀

  14. AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Atlantic hurricane cycles are governed by the patterns of______________.

    A. Sea surface temperatures
    B. Volcanic eruptions
    C. Sunspot eras
    D. El Nino / La Nina cycles

    Answer later today.

    1. Certainly better in some places than I had forecast. Less rain (though there was a nice batch to the southwest of Boston for a while), and more sun. Though once again we’re seeing the failure of a wet weather system. As BB says: “All systems fail in a drought.” Maybe not completely true but you see it often.

  17. We pulled a bonus day today.
    Anyone see the channel 4 hurricane special last night?
    Barry had a segment on AMO, Atlantic MULTIDECADAL Oscillation.
    Was an excellent presentation. My only complaint: It was only 1/2 hour long.

        1. Yes, and I brought up the AMO back in March as a potential impact on the Atlantic hurricane season, that is, lowering the number of storms due to a colder spike, even though people tend to jump to the conclusion that a developing La Nina leads to more storms.

    2. I saw it. The AMO relates to the AMOC (“Thermohaline Circulation”) discussion Vicki and I were having about the other day. We’re very likely heading into, and already in, a multi-decadal period of reduced hurricane activity compared to what we’ve become used to since 1995. I enjoyed the special, I always like when they do those. They never actually made a forecast for the season though. Perhaps a wise move, as it’s not an easy seasonal forecast this year. Rapid El Nino to La Nina transition argues for an active season, but the Atlantic SST pattern isn’t overly favorable, and the PDO is very warm for a La Nina, which could mean an active East Pacific and less active Atlantic.

      1. You are an amazingly kind person to say we were having the discussion. You were the teacher. And thanks to you, I understood JPDs comment. I do wish I had seen the episode.

  18. 18z GFS down to between 1002 and 1004 mb on that Atlantic Ocean low coming onto the U.S. East coast during Memorial Day weekend.

    I feel a bit alone 🙂 in my quiz answer. But I saw the word cycle in the quiz. I don’t think I’ve ever seen the development areas of the Atlantic under 80F during hurricane season. I picked d because El Niño/ La Niña usually affects the upper level winds and thus development in the Atlantic.

    I’m quite curious to see what the answer is.

  19. The earliest 80 and latest 80 at Logan occurred in the same decade, 3 years apart (3-21-1921 for earliest, and 6-16-1924 for latest). 🙂

  20. Mars (closest to Earth in over 10 years), Saturn, and the just-beyond-full moon will all rise in the east this evening and be visible all night as long as the sky condition cooperates.

  21. Answer to AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Atlantic hurricane cycles are governed by the patterns of______________.

    A. Sea surface temperatures
    B. Volcanic eruptions
    C. Sunspot eras
    D. El Nino / La Nina cycles

    The correct answer is A.

  23. GFS again bringing serious warmth June 5-7 timeframe 80s and perhaps touching 90s for some. Tk, it bit far out but do you think the GFS is over amplifying?

    1. Hi there. I’m on my “WBZ Blog account” for a few min while something gets reset with my WHW account.

      I don’t think the warm forecast is far fetched. I figured we warm up late May, cool down first few days of June, then rebound back up again.

        1. I was busy trying to get my gang to quiet down so we didn’t have him show up. Rowdy bunch.

  24. TK – After the first few days of June, is that when we warm up and never look back until October?

    1. You know that “never look back” doesn’t apply in New England, but we’ll probably have a couple other cooler interludes in June anyway, but the month will be warm overall. 🙂

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