Tuesday Forecast

88 Comments

7:39AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 24-28)…
A connection issue is going to keep me from adding a full discussion so just a forecast update. Will comment later on upcoming weather systems.
TODAY: Mainly cloudy. Occasional showers, a few downpours and a rumble of thunder possible. Highs in the 60s. Wind light NE.
TONIGHT: Mainly cloudy. Chance of showers evening. Areas of fog. Lows in the 50s. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY: Mainly sunny. Highs 70s Cape Cod, 80s elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly late day or evening. Lows in the 60s. Highs upper 70s to middle 80s.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s except cooler Cape Cod.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 29-JUNE 2)…
A few showers, cooler coast, warm interior Sunday-Monday, depending on the position of a nearby front. Additional showers/thunderstorms possible May 31. Fair and cooler June 1-2.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 3-7)…Fair and seasonable early in the period, then unsettled and warmer later in the period.

88 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  3. Thank you, sir!

    55.6 here and .21 rain since midnight. Not enough to do a thing. Roads are already drying out and they are barely traveled so not totally from traffic.

  4. Thanks TK !

    Tomorrow will be a temperature adjustment here in Marshfield as I’m willing to bet the eastern third of town hasn’t seen much above 75F since late last September or October.

  5. Good morning and thanks for the Update TK.

    Boston Buoy starting off the day at

    Water Temperature (WTMP): 53.8 °F

  8. Saturday is looking very hot for pretty much all of SNE (including eastern MA) on both the GFS and Euro. Both models now showing fairly widespread 90+ readings. Potential for some record highs?

    Backdoor cold front looks to spoil the fun though on Sunday and Monday. GFS appears to be caving to the Euro and now has much of SNE down in the 60’s on Sunday.

        1. Yeah and those temps are only for 18z, we would have another 2-3 hours of daytime heating on top of that before the highs are reached.

      2. The potential for 90 is there on the Euro as well based on the 850mb temps. I have noticed the Eurowx.com maps have seemed to be low when estimating the max temps.

        1. You could be correct on that. What I have noticed is that
          they start out lower and increase as we get closer to
          the actual day.

          I think I will be installing the window ACs tomorrow, if
          not today sometime.

          Since our shitty neighbors took down eight (8) beautiful majestic trees, we have lost much shade and the house heats up dramatically with the warmth and sunshine.

          My wife has come down with the flu and she does not
          need Heat to add to the discomfort.

          1. Your right on the maps adjusting as we get closer to the day – case in point the widespread upper 80’s to near 90 the Euro is showing for tomorrow. Odd.

            Definitely want to get that AC in asap. I hope your wife feels better soon!

            1. Thank you Mark.
              I am at home with her today.
              Trying to do some work from here, but
              not being too successful.

          2. Sorry to hear that, JPD. Late in the season for the flu and a lousy time to be sick. Something about spring and illnesses – they always seem worse. Hope she is better soon.

    1. Yikes – thanks, Mark. Even with the sprinkler system on for an hour a zone the other night (just got it started) and rain last night (which kept system off) the ground is rock hard from being so dry.

  10. I was just sitting here wondering why east and southeast winds don’t seem to affect me as much here in Hingham even though we are a coastal community. Checked out the maps and a due east wind has to travel about 7.5 miles from the ocean to get to my location while a southeast wind travels just about 10 miles. Northeast winds are another story traveling only 3 miles and north winds less than two from the water.

      1. When I lived in Winthrop I was about 300-500 feet from the ocean on the NE through SE directions and except for WSW to NW I was within 1 mile or so of the water in the other directions.

    3. Yup, agree and for here in JP:

      NE wind has to travel about 6 miles.
      East wind about 4 miles

      BUT a SouthEast wind is about 20-25 miles depending upon exact trajectory.

      And wind directions between East and SE, can vary from 4 or 5 miles to 25 miles.

      1. And it’s funny how when the wind is varying slightly you can feel the difference within what feels like seconds. I love that.

        1. Agree and also love when you feel the shift. Directly on the ocean you can sometimes see the shift moving in. The house we rent at Humarock as the river on one side and ocean on the other. An east wind is always welcome on hot, humid days since the house does not have AC and I always prefer natural AC anyway. However, we are lucky enough to have even a west wind cooled somewhat.

          I smile, JPD, when you mention the dreaded east wind – not at you but because I have always loved it when it comes off the ocean. Different strokes as they say.

          1. Yup, I detest that East wind, except on certain
            Summer days, then I love it. Fickled I am.

  11. I hope the Saturday forecast holds. It will be so nice to have one hot day on the Memorial Day weekend to camp. It’s always fun no matter the weather, but most times it’s too cold to get in the ponds in Myles standish forest in late May.

  12. Instability being shown on 6z GFS for potential thunderstorm development Friday and Saturday.

  13. I like 85-90 Wed for hot spots. At least mid 80s Thursday. Friday’s up in the air at this point. 90 attainable many areas Saturday before a cooler Sunday-Monday.

    1. Tk, how do the dew points look on those days?

      90 is one thing, but throw a 70 dew point on top of it and it gets
      nasty quickly.

  14. My question would be Friday and Saturday if the GFS solution is correct will we have a trigger or will it be too warm aloft for thunderstorm development. Certainly with what the GFS shows enough juice for thunderstorms those days.

  15. From NWS

    .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/…

    Highlights…

    * Very warm Wed/Thu/Fri with highs well up into the 80s except
    cooler immediate coast at times
    * Hot Saturday afternoon w/highs mainly upper 80s to the lower 90s
    * A few showers/t-storms possible Thu night/Fri but best chance Sat
    afternoon/evening ahead of cold front
    * Turning much cooler Sun and especially Mon along the coast

    And for Saturday

    Saturday…A hot day with westerly flow and 850T near 16c. This
    should yield highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s for most locations.
    Dewpoints into the 60s will make it feel somewhat muggy.
    Pre-frontal trough ahead of an approaching cold front may trigger
    scattered showers/thunderstorms mainly Saturday afternoon and
    evening.

  16. Thanks JP Dave.
    The front Saturday is the trigger. Of course other things come into play with thunderstorms. Certainly if the GFS is correct the instability is in place.

  17. 12z NAM showing some pretty good instability West of Boston Friday.
    Of course its the NAM so take with a huge grain of salt.

  19. While I obviously enjoy New England weather, I enjoy following weather globally.

    One of my new regions to follow is the arctic.

    Just east of Alaska, up north of the Northwest territories is the Beaufort Sea. It has the attention of those who follow the summer’s ice melt because it currently has a lot of open water prior to the equinox, where there should be none.

    Well, I nearly just fell off of my chair looking at the 12z GFS and the 850 mb temps it predicts in the Beaufort Sea area in the middle to long range. 12 to perhaps 15C. Unbelievable, if that happens.

    We’ll have to see if that trend continues in the coming days. WOW !!!!

  21. Does anyone recall when our first 70 degree day was? I had forgotten we had the 70/80/90 contest

    1. Boston’s first 70+ was a high of 77 on March 9. They did not hit 70 again until March 31 with a high of 71. They reached it twice in April with 77 on April 21 and 78 on April 22. There have been 7 days of 70+ so far in May and we’ll add to that.

        1. Thank you, sir! BZ (I think – could have been ch 5) said we stand a chance of boston hitting both 80 and 90 next week.

          Don’t quote me on that because I think it was next week.

          Up to the minute, extremely accurate reporter, Vicki, signing out 😉

  22. 83F in DC. Warmth to our south, and warmth to our west (Cincinnati, for instance, 82F). Tomorrow will be a hot day here (I define hot arbitrarily as anything over 85F) everywhere in SNE, except CC and Islands. But, I am skeptical about it getting hot on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, except for inland locations. I see a seabreeze working against warm temps on Friday, and I think cloud cover on Saturday followed by the approach of a cold front will limit the heat. So, I think 88F for a high at Logan tomorrow, 81F on Thursday, 69F on Friday, and 79F on Saturday. 60s and low 70s after that.

  23. Tom, thanks for sharing the weather information from Alaska. As you know, the warmth in the far north is not evenly distributed, with the Nunavut region in Canada experiencing a below-normal phase in terms of temperature. Similarly, Novaya Zemlya (Nova Zembla) in Russia is also below normal.

    Western Europe has oscillated a lot this spring, from rather extreme warmth to record-breaking cold (cool). Usually, their pattern is more stable in springtime.

  24. JP Dave, I am sorry to hear about your wife’s flu. I’ve escaped the respiratory bug, but not the stomach one. My son had the stomach flu, too, as did my daughter. It’s a long duration stomach illness.

    1. Thanks Joshua. She is actually feeling a bit better this PM.
      I am hopeful she has turned the corner.

    2. Good news that Mrs. OS may be turning the corner. Tell her we are all thinking of her please.

  25. NHC reporting on an area of showers and storms near the Bahamas with a 30% development in the next five days.

  27. NWS take on the rest of the week

    Wed
    https://scontent-ord1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/13237802_1013927942034910_2873500039761356466_n.png?oh=c34ff62bb74c4b00b48778da1a953073&oe=57CF1E2B
    Thurs
    https://scontent-ord1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/l/t1.0-9/13255991_1013927965368241_6352338798911809133_n.png?oh=502b6d0523296dafafb9d06dd5fc4e5b&oe=57CA6196
    Fri
    https://scontent-ord1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/13254114_1013927988701572_589034274979849551_n.png?oh=10a2b787c90b04354709c93ce1d540d7&oe=57E29393
    Sat
    https://scontent-ord1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/13244693_1013928048701566_2644122668181670401_n.png?oh=092b98aeba9dd0e4251e910c8390ad31&oe=57D96494

    1. I can not wait !

      I hope your wife feels better and that you’ve gotten some AC units setup in case it gets too warm.

    2. I agree with this and I also think even getting on the other side of the front Sunday-Monday may end up being a good thing, as the front pushes far enough through that we clean out and still have a decent amount of sunshine Sunday and perhaps Monday as well.

  28. From NWS out of Taunton for Saturday. Plenty of time to watch.
    Approaching surface trough
    looks to trigger afternoon convection for the region. Some storms
    could be strong or severe, but a bit to early to tell.

    1. Its the trough that will do it, If anything will do it.
      We shall see.

      As far as Eastern sections go, it will depend on the surface wind direction.
      Too much Southerly component and Poof go the storms. Always an issue, but
      much more so early in the season.

  30. 12z GFS does show enough instability for those storms to fire on Saturday.
    As you mentioned JPDave the wind direction is important. Anything off the water that will stabilize the atmosphere and thunderstorms hate stable air. That is there kryptonite.

    1. Here are the GFS 10M winds 18Z Saturday (2PM)

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016052412/gfs_mslp_wind_neus_18.png

      This would be marginal. Pretty much due SW. My guess would be
      Storms to “about” Worcester or so and then weaken OR even Poof before
      reaching coast. But a slight variation in the surface winds could change that.
      It is Early yet. AND I could still be wrong, we just never know for sure, but
      history would favor weakening or poofering. 😀 😀

  32. New phone.
    New laptop.
    New monitor.
    New stand-up fan for this room and the adjacent kitchen.
    New window fan for this room.
    We have one room with AC and this is not it, but I am not a big fan of AC in-house (get it?).

    😀

    1. Agree. We had eight ceiling fans in old house. I have two that need installing in my family room and bedroom but don’t have an electrician. We had two window ACa in new house but have central air here. I can’t think I would do more than open windows wide here tomorrow.

      My theory….which everyone knew I’d have….is in winter windows are closed for the most part…even though I have them open part of nearly every day. Summer is supposed to be when windows are open.

      I suspect daughter and family will have AC on so am happy I have my own zone.

      1. As an aside if anyone has an electrician to recommend I have a bunch that needs doing 🙂

  33. Two zone central AC here. Upstairs on one zone, downstairs on the other. Haven’t had it on yet this year. Tomorrow I’ll flip the switch I’m sure.

  34. My friend is chasing in OK and KS and has seen 5 or 6 tornadoes in the last 90 min from one storm near Dodge City KS.

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