Thursday Forecast

89 Comments

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 26-30)…
Yesterday’s discussion is essentially unchanged, so this will be just a forecast update and will expand in comments section below.
TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 70s coast cooling to 60s afternoon, upper 70s to middle 80s interior. Wind N 5-15 MPH shifting to E.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Wind E 5-15 MPH shifting to S.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. A little more humid. Highs 70s South Coast and Cape Cod, lower 80s interior.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of late-day showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs middle 80s to lower 90s except cooler some immediate coastal areas and Cape Cod.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the upper 50s to middle 60s. Highs middle to upper 60s coast, 70s interior.
MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Partly sunny. Lows middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs upper 60s to lower 70s coast, middle 70s to lower 80s interior.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 31-JUNE 4)…
Scattered showers/thunderstorms possible May 31 as a front pushes through the region. Mostly fair and cooler June 1-4.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 5-9)…
Passing disturbances during this period will bring a few episodes of showery weather and changing temperatures.

89 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I only made it to 86 at my house, which is surrounded by trees, grass, shrubs and other
    plant life so I am sure a certain degree of transpiration was taking place.

    Started the day off today at 74 as of 8AM at my house in JP. Pretty decent launching point. Now it is the battle of the sea breeze. At 8AM, wind variable a the airport, so we
    know what that means. Also 74 at the Airport as of 8AM.

    Boston buoy is starting the day off at 55.9 Degrees. I am liking that. A nice steady
    rise in the ocean temps. I do recall a number of years ago that the Boston Buoy temperature was 46 Degrees on Memorial Day. So this year is an immense improvement over that year, whatever it was. Could have been mid-late 70s??? Just not sure. It was a long time ago, but it sticks in my memory.

      1. I am expecting it, however, with the ocean temperature creeping
        upwards, the effects will slowly become less and less.

        It will be interesting to see what temperature Logan can maintain with the onslaught of the sea breeze today.

        I am sure in JP we’ll be near 80. We shall see.

          1. Not so well. Thank you.
            I’ll be checking in on her at lunch. Hopefully, she’ll feel better.

  6. It looks like the GFS has backed off considerably on severe parameters
    for Saturday. On the other hand, the NAM is quite robust for Sunday.

  7. Thank you.
    It was glorious on the Leo J. Martin golf course on the Newton/Weston line last night between 6 and 8 pm. A bit of a breeze, and it must have been relatively low humidity.

    1. Played there many times. Some nice holes, some not so nice.
      I always despised #18 as it completely wrecked many a round for me. 😀

  8. I just checked the Euro.

    It has the SWEAT Index at 300-325 for late Sat PM and Evening.

    (SWEAT= Severe Weather Threat Index) uses several variables to determine the likeliness of severe weather and tornadoes.

    Here is the scale:

    SWEAT
    150-300 Slight severe
    300-400 Severe possible
    400+ Tornadic possible

    So between Satuday and Sunday, something appears likely. We’ll have to wait and see.

  9. My Bonnie Lies Over the Ocean…

    Latest from the NHC:

    With the Memorial Day weekend
    approaching, all interests along the southeast coast from Georgia
    through North Carolina should monitor the progress of this low.

  11. Cohen said all signs pointing to a hot summer not extream but hot. We know that already from TK. Cohen said everybody is warm and that’s the story for the summer and he thinks that will be the story even into next winter . Full story bostonchannel . Com

    1. I think we’ll flip cold for a while but DRY heading into winter, then the mild will regain control. What may be very lacking next winter is precip/snow.

      1. You had said that Tk??? The warmth ? I thought it was rare to have two back to back winters with little snow . Or maybe you are thinking even less than this year . What did Boston get 36 or so .

        2. It’s not rare. It was just fairly rare from the 1990s into the 2000s. 😉

  12. Thanks TK.
    Will see what the 12z runs say about our thunderstorm chances for the weekend.

    1. I think the situation is still evolving and the models have not zereod in
      on exactly what may or may not happen. It all depends. Severe is possible, but practically nothing is also possible as well.

      I find it interesting that the 6Z NAM had rather robust severe parameters
      for Sunday. We shall see what the 12Z runs show. 😀

  13. 10 AM Obs at the airport

    Temperature: 74.0 °F (23.3 °C)
    Dewpoint: 59.0 °F (15.0 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 60 %
    Wind: Southeast at 6.9 MPH (6 KT)

    Didn’t take long for Logan to kick into a sea breeze.

    Inland areas are off to the races. Already 79 at Norwood. As the sea breeze
    penetrates inland, the temperature rise “may” be capped. We shall see.

  15. 11AM, wind SE 9.2 mph at the airport.
    Temperature still holding at 74.

    Inland, Norwood 82 and Taunton 85.

    Boston Buoy

    Water Temperature (WTMP): 59.7 °F

    Will it reach 60 today for the 1st time this year?????

  18. 87 in Wrentham. Cumulus have really built up in the past hour, wouldn’t be surprised if some sprinkles develop.

  19. at 1PM, it was 81.3 at my house in JP.

    Contrasting with the Airport which was: 72 with an EAST WIND at 16 MPH

    1. It’s also much warmer than 72 here at the office, which is only a couple of
      miles from the damn airport. My car was reading 82.

  21. You can really feel the difference in the air today compared to yesterday . Feels much hotter today .

  24. Seabreeze showing up on Taunton radar.

    Nice cumulus clouds in western third of our horizon.

  25. I think those clouds are gonna cap our temps. Sitting just under 90 but hasn’t moved since noon.

  26. 3PM at the Airport it is 71. Wind EAST at 13 mph.
    Taunton 89
    Norwood 84
    Bedford 88
    Blue Hill 81

  27. FWIW, the 12Z Euro Severe parameters are virtually non-existent for the entire
    weekend. 😀

  28. 10 degrees cooler at 3PM today in Woburn than it was 24 hours ago. Wind direction is everything in the spring.

    1. Why is it warmer here (Hudson/Nashua, NH) today than it was yesterday at this time? Can we trade?

  29. Boston’s temperature should be measured in the heart of Boston, say, in Boston Common. Not at the airport. Not in Hyde Park. Not in Allston. Of course, they may measure there, too. But, on a national weather map, Boston’s measurement should not be coming from the airport or some outlying neighborhood. It’s misleading. Similarly, snow totals for Boston should not be Logan-based. For its primary source on snow accumulation and temperature, New York City doesn’t measure at Laguardia or JFK, it measures in Central Park. Likewise, Boston should use as its source of weather measures Boston Common.

    1. I concur. Clearly it should be on the Boston Common, a perfect location.
      Alternatively, I would accept Copley Square somewhere.

      Logan airport is totally and completely UNACCEPTABLE!!!

      We can bitch all we want, unfortunately, it’s not going to change.

    2. The temperature in Boston, though clearly often much cooler at the airport, even at other times of year can vary up to several degrees from one section of the city to another, so moving it to Boston Common would really just take one issue and move it somewhere else. 🙂 It might be 65 there, but 70 in Hyde Park, still a significant difference. And then you have many days during the year where the temperature at Logan and other parts of the city are all about the same.

      I think there should be enough common knowledge among people, both from here and not from here, that the coastal areas are going to often be cooler, sometimes considerably so, than elsewhere, during the spring. But likewise, the opposite effect is present in late autumn and winter. One can argue from a climate standpoint that it’s not representative, but it’s not actually that far off, as the low temps there tend to be higher than other areas, and believe it or not the average nearly balances out over the course of a year. It’s the dailies that are more noticeable. I worked with the very long-time state climatologist for years and he acknowledge the “issues” but also with a smile would say there is no reason to change anything, and I agree with him.

      1. I disagree. I agree with Joshua. Sure one can’t measure the conditions in every location, but clearly a more “centralized”
        location would be far superior to a location sticking out into
        the water at periphery of the city.

        Therefore the Boston Common would be Ideal. 😀

        1. It would be nice, but in the climate record we’d notice almost no change. I’m geared more toward the climate record, since people vary. One person’s 60 is another person’s 90. 😛

          1. That’s fine, but I’m a stickler for this and it drives
            me absolutely bonkers that our weather records
            are kept at that God Forsaken piece of crap location. So bit it. I was resigned to it years ago, but this blog has resurrected my objection all over again. 😀 😀 😀

  30. NWS re: Saturday

    Saturday…Unseasonably hot weather anticipated and record highs
    may be challenged. 850T around +16c with plenty of sunshine and a
    well mixed atmosphere should yield highs between 90 and 95 in most
    locations away from the immediate coast where localized sea
    breezes may develop. Dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s will make
    it feel a bit muggy.

  31. Latest HRRR is showing convection in Eastern MA, from about now to 8PM.

    Yeah sure and I’m Santa Claus. We shall see about that.

    1. HRRR notoriously over-develops convection in general, and especially sea-breeze front stuff. It’s turning cumulus clouds into showers and storms. There may be an isolated shower or 2, and anything that did pop would be very short-lived. There is a tiny little boundary moving ENE across central MA and when this reaches the sea breeze front it MAY be just enough to trigger something for a short time.

  32. The story today is…
    The GFS from 12z is an absolute piece of crap. If you haven’t looked at it yet, don’t waste your time. If you have looked at it, forget about it like a really bad movie. ECMWF is locked in at the moment.

  33. And in the category of “No, the ‘extremes’ are not all in the 21st century”: Should T.S. Bonnie develop, it would be the second named system occurring before the official start date of the season (June 1). This, though fairly rare, has happened on 3 previous occasions. They are, from most recent to furthest back…
    2012: Tropical Storm Alberto (May 19) & Tropical Storm Beryl (May 26).
    1908: 2 hurricanes before June 1.
    1887: 2 tropical storms before June 1.

    1. I remember the 2 most recent ones. I’m afraid my memory can’t recall
      the other 2. 😀

  34. The sea breeze convection is definitely my top complaint on the HRRR for our area. Almost always overdoes it. It nailed the warmer than expected temperatures though.

    1. Did they use a more tropical algorithm ala Miami rather than a more Northern
      climate like Boston? Perhaps given the same set of circumstances in Miami,
      convection certainly would file as it happens nearly every day with the sea breeze. But up here, not gonna happen, except perhaps mid-late Summer
      when the sea surface temperature has warmed to near or max temperature
      for the season. 😀

      1. Perhaps. I know little about the inner workings of models like that. Haven’t taken Numerical Weather Prediction yet 😉

        I do know that significant time and effort continues to go into the model though, because despite its flaws, it’s the best the US, and perhaps the world, has to offer. Case in point, on the 0z, 6z, 12z, and 18z cycles, it is now being run experimentally to 36 hours. Today’s 18z run is showing showers and storms inland tomorrow from mid-afternoon on, especially favoring areas north/west.

        1. I have been programming computers for about 50 years now. I wouldn’t know where to begin to program a weather model. The complexities are enormous to say the least. There is just so much that goes into those.

          I have a great deal of respect for those who work on these models.

          And you are correct, the HRRR has nailed things. I simply wish it were a bit more reliable.

          Frankly I am not impressed by anything I have seen
          regarding convection for any part of this weekend.
          In short, I’ll believe it when I see it.

  35. 18z NAM showing instability for both Sat and Sun. Just like snowfall in the winter I think this model is over cooking it.

  36. 69 at the airport as of 4PM. Don’t know yet about 5PM.

    Water temp down to 57. Never made it to 60, best I can tell.

    I think the East wind has been strong enough out there, that somewhat cooler water
    is being forced in and/or there is a bit of upwelling going on bringing cooler water to the surface from below

    http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/upwelling.html

    1. Upwelling is most common with a land breeze. Sea breezes tend to hold mild water in at the surface.
      General rule of thumb…
      Land breeze = colder water.
      Sea breeze = warmer water.

  38. Car read 90 coming thru Uxbridge but 88 on the dot here

    JPD so very sorry to hear your wife is still not feeling well. Sending more hugs as first ones didn’t seem to work

    MassBay. Mac and son played Leo J when son was young. Son and high school friends played most every day in summer while in high school. They have great discounts for kids

  39. For back to back winters. We may not have have them. Ski country has had a lousy decade or two. They were struggling the past two certainly. But in general, and yes I’m repeating, ski areas have struggled for a while now. So many are quite depressed.

    Interestingly, macs cousin told me yesterday that this is the first time she remembers in decades not being able to see snow on the Olympics in spring.

      1. It’s overblown in the headline and somewhat in the story. However, these solar minima as well as corresponding maxima, are linked solidly to Earth’s climate. We’ll see what happens, but I can pretty much promise you it won’t be “earth-shattering”.

  41. Just for the record, I am in the Joshua/JPD camp that the Boston Common should be where Boston weather/climate data be recorded. I would even go one better that maybe the Public Garden be the location. I would be curious if 1936 was the first year for airports as weather/climate stations nationwide as well as Boston.

    For me personally, it is all about neighborhood representation as no one actually “lives” at Logan. Stranded overnight passengers and air traffic controllers don’t count. 😉

    1. There are a few places in the area that Logan “fairly” represents…Winthrop, Nahant, Hull to name a few.

      1. In addition I suppose East Boston, Charlestown, South Boston…but still I prefer the Common. Heck, it worked just fine for years up until 1936. Airports probably do represent most cities sufficiently but not Boston much of the time IMO. Oh well, Logan will have to do. 🙂

      2. As I stated earlier, move it and you just move the issue around. People can adjust. And my goodness, it’s just the measurement of the movement of air molecules. 😉

  42. TK – Does Bonnie bring widespread rains for Monday? I am getting that impression from Eric.

      1. I am planning a BBQ for Monday, but would Sunday be safer as far as rain risk, or the same?

        1. This far out, Sunday probably runs a slightly lower rain risk for the area as a whole, but I would not change any plans yet.

  43. The extremes are happening more and more frequent though.
    Show me the proof that its not increasing.

    1. Seriously thinking Farrell has seen enough. Took him out quickly. We may not even see him make his next start.

    1. Saturday: Lots of sun. Highs in 70s at the water, 80s not far inland, S to SW breeze.
      Sunday: Watch for low cloudiness, but not sure if it lasts all day. Shower risk is low. Highs in the 60s, wind off the water mainly NE.
      Monday: Cloudiness may be dominant and the shower threat is greater, but I’m but not in “camp washout”. Probably upper 60s to middle 70s for highs depending on wind direction.

    2. Enjoy Coastal !

      I love that whole area. When I lived in Lowell, we’d make the drive to go to the beach in southern Maine.

    4. Thank you!

      We love it there! We would vacation at the Gray Gull when I was younger. The kids love the zoo.

  46. Very short update posted, will edit later with full discussion. Short on time this morning!

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