Friday Forecast

101 Comments

7:32AM / EDITED 3:38PM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 27-31)…
And now the last 5 days of May, including Memorial Day Weekend. We’ll see changing weather, as is typical. An early hot air mass will invade the region by Saturday with many areas nearing or exceeding 90 for a high temp, other than the typically cooler South Coast and Cape Cod. Expect a back door front to sweep through the region Saturday night and early Sunday and cool the region down significantly, but not extremely. Forecast wildcard is for Memorial Day itself with some uncertainly as to whether or not moisture associated with a potential tropical system off the US Southeast Coast makes it up this way. Right now, I’m leaning away from that idea with just some scattered showers around with a front in the vicinity, exiting by Tuesday. Will monitor and update as needed.
REMAINDER OF TODAY: Hazy sun. Highs upper 60s Cape Cod, 70s immediate eastern shores, lower to middle 80s interior. Wind light SE to S
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 60s. Wind light S to SW.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly west and north of Boston by late in the afternoon. Highs 70s Cape Cod, upper 80s to lower 90s elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers/thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny, but may be mostly cloudy at times especially eastern coastal areas. Highs 60s coast, 70s interior. Wind shifting to NE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows upper 50s to middle 60s. Wind light E.
MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs upper 60s to middle 70s. Wind light SE.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s except 70s Cape Cod.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 1-5)…
Fair and cooler June 1-4. Shower risk returns June 5.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 6-10)…
Episodes of unsettled weather with variable temperatures.

101 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Well, the weather the last few days have switched my senses fully over to summer, so, if we ever switch back to cool and raw, which is always possible in June, it’s going to be an adjustment again.

  2. It is a perfect update TK. Please don’t worry about not having time. The time…not to mention the expense…you put into this blog is so very greatly appreciated. Thank you for making it happen.

  3. I have today off. Starting the day sitting outside with a cup of coffee and the sounds of nature makes me so appreciate the beauty of this world and our little corner of it.

    Also makes me wonder why I don’t retire 🙂 Although I love what I do and would be bored very quickly.

    3. Vicki, I had much the same experience while drinking my cup coffee this morning, while also reflecting on my new age. My first Facebook b-day wish was from a early childhood friend and I chucked as I considered how old we young’uns would have thought 58 was; absolutely ancient!!! But, of course it’s not… only slightly 🙂
      TK, I’ve been closely watching the forecast for June 4-6th (especially the 5th) with much hope that it either remains the same, or gets better for our Cape Cod weekend. Please, see what you do for me! 😉

      1. Having my coffee at the office, sans sugar and creamer. Ie black.
        I don’t add sugar to anything.

        1. Thank you Vicki for the birthday wish and you are so right about all the wonderful adventures to be had!

  4. Yesterday, Mt Washington’s dewpoint was 12 or so at this time.

    Today, it’s 48F.

    The entire column is really moistening up.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Starting the day out absolutely beautiful! I don’t know how Logan will do, but I am quite certain we reach 80 or above at my house. Logan would have a sea breeze even if the wind were NW 15 mph at my house. Logan is a sea breeze machine.

    NOT impressed by chances of T-storms this entire weekend.
    Another factor, it will NOT rain because it means I have to keep watering
    my new lawn. Now that I wouldn’t mind some rain here and there, it won’t rain. 😀

    There may be some showers/T-showers around some areas this weekend, but I am almost certain that it won’t rain one single drop at my house. 😀 😀 😀

    2. I may have to eat my words. I would have been nice to check the models before
      I opened my big mouth. 6Z runs show it to be rather interesting for tomorrow
      afternoon. Cape of around 2,000 joules and LI of about -6 or so on average of models. However, the Euro is particularly unimpressive.

      There is some degree of Helicity around, so we’ll have to watch that, but most
      likely harmless. Again, we’ll see what the 12Z runs show and the HRRR when
      it gets in range.

      Even with this, I still say it won’t rain a drop at my house. In this case, I sincerely HOPE I am WRONG. We shall see.

      Haven’t needed AC yet. Tomorrow for sure.

  6. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/91L/imagery/vis-animated.gif

    Still some shear, but definitely have a small surface circulation.

    The models don’t do too well on these close to home, early season systems. I think it was hurricane Arthur in early July 2 seasons ago that hit the outer Banks. The models always seem to be in catchup mode with respect to intensity.

    If the upper level environment becomes better the next few days ……..

      1. HWRF

        http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf-p/2016052706/hwrf-p_mslp_wind_91L_15.png

        GFDL

        http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfdl-p/2016052706/gfdl-p_mslp_wind_91L_9.png

        As you say, the hurricane models NOT very impressive regarding intensity. Let’s look at some global models.

        GFS

        http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016052706/gfs_mslp_wind_seus_9.png

        CMC

        http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016052700/gem_mslp_wind_seus_11.png

        Euro

        http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016052700/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_seus_4.png

        Global models are “about” the same.

        1. Where it goes from there is the big question.
          The NWS has dialog indicating a plume of tropical moisture will come up here and drench us with downpours.

          If you believe that, I have some swamp land in Florida to sell you. 😀 😀

  7. Boston buoy starting the day off at:

    Water Temperature (WTMP): 55.6 °F

    Logan Airport as of 9AM:

    66 with NORTHEAST WIND already. Well I think it was EAST all night long.

    FWIW, it was 69 at my house at 8AM. Hah!

    1. We were on the north side of a boundary all night into this morning. It lifts back thru and winds go south later.

  9. Thanks TK. Hoping to keep Monday mostly dry… traveling that day, Boston to DC.

    I’ve got a big week planned next week. I’ll be spending it at/around NOAA headquarters in Silver Spring, MD. I’ve been accepted for a NOAA scholarship called the Hollings Scholarship. It’s awarded yearly to 100-150 college sophomores majoring in meteorology as well as many other environmental/marine sciences. There’s a nice financial award, and a lot of guaranteed real world experience. This week coming up is just an orientation; next summer, I will be completing a focused, 10 week research project at a NOAA facility somewhere in the country (I’ll get to browse options this coming week). I’ll then hopefully be able to present that research at a conference or something similar. A graduating senior at my school this year also received this scholarship, and she was able to present at the 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology in Puerto Rico this past April. I’ve known for awhile, but figured I’d let you all know now that everything is officially squared away. As I mentioned awhile back, I’m doing a less intense but still exciting internship in Taunton this summer, starting the week after. I’ll keep you guys abreast of anything interesting.

    And I can’t thank you all enough! Your posts way back on the WBZ blogs were one of the first and most important factors that made me certain I wanted to pursue meteorology. And of course it’s continued on with this great group here at WHW. Learning every day. 🙂

    1. Fantastic and hearty congratulations to you. Best of luck and please do keep
      us informed. Thank you.

    2. Wonderful, exciting news!! All the best to you, WxWatcher – you’re going to have the BEST summer!!!!

    9. I will use Macs phrase that our kids know well and hope makes sense to you.

      My buttons are bursting, WeatherWx. I am so very happy for you. I hope you accept it as a compliment when I say I am not surprised. You always impress me with your knowledge and with how you share it.

  11. FWIW, the 12Z NAM shows decent CAPE for tomorrow approaching 2,000 Joules, however, it shows NO radar reflectivity for Eastern sections whatsoever. Some out West, but None East of Worcester.

  12. Congratulations, WxWatcher. Your enthusiasm for the science of weather will make you very successful in this field of study.

  13. FWIW re: RedSox

    Sorry to see JBJ’s hitting streak end, however, Xander’s was extended to 19 games.

    On another note, it is about time they did something with Suckholz. Either demote him to the bullpen, send him to Pawtucket to get his act together, trade him or outright release that bag of crap!!!

    1. And watching him leave the game last night I couldn’t tell whether he was totally lost or just doesn’t care. He’s a strange one. The last holdover from the Chicken and Beer crew.

      1. And we totally and completely agree on this count.

        I just wish they would get rid of him one way or another. I don’t care which way they do it. He’s a turd!

        Rodriguez will be back very soon and most likely WILL force
        the issue.

        They had some stat on the radio this morning where this season Suckholz is 2-5 at Fenway and all other starters are 16-5.
        Pretty telling stat to say the least. We might be running away with it all IF this guy wasn’t starting.

        Btw, his ERA is now a whopping 6.35 with 56 2/3 innings pitched. Pretty Putrid! Opponents batting average against
        his meatballs is .268 and that is how to make a living as
        a Major League pitcher!

        1. The funny thing is that in the first inning his fastball and curve had a lot of movement on it. All went south after that.

  14. Boston, Logan 68 at 11AM with EAST wind.

    75 at Blue Hill
    77 at Norwood
    80 at Taunton

    And the Ocean temperatures:

    Boston Buoy: Water Temperature (WTMP): 58.1 °F
    Stellwagen: Water Temperature (WTMP): 54.7 °F

    1. True, but that means nothing.

      Looking at the SREF, only 5-2o Percent chance for Boston, while for Sunday,
      SREF shows 40% chance for Boston.

  18. WOW! Logan is at it again.

    1 PM observation:

    Boston, Logan International Airport, MA
    (KBOS) 42.36056N 71.01056W
    Overcast
    64.0 °F
    Last Updated: May 27 2016, 12:54 pm EDT
    Fri, 27 May 2016 12:54:00 -0400
    Weather: Overcast
    Temperature: 64.0 °F (17.8 °C)
    Dewpoint: 57.0 °F (13.9 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 78 %
    Wind: East at 12.7 MPH (11 KT)
    Visibility: 8.00 miles
    MSL Pressure: 1018.9 mb
    Altimeter: 30.09 in Hg

    At 1PM it was 72.7 at my house 5 or 6 miles away.

    Meanwhile it was 86 at Norwood with a SOUTH wind.

    Norwood is 12 miles from my house so that is how close the front is.

    This surface map is pretty damn to close to actual

    http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif

  19. Don’t hold your breath, but the 12Z GFS has a Tropical System over us for
    June 9th. The system originated in Caribbean just East of the Yucatan Peninsula.

    Origins, June 6th

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016052712/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_39.png

    June 7th

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016052712/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_42.png

    June 8th

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016052712/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_44.png

    June 9th

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016052712/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_46.png

    How do ya like them apples?

    Worth noting that although the CMC only goes out to 240 hours, it does show a
    system over the Yucatan at that hour as does the Euro. 😀

  20. SREF in my mind has done decent job with thunderstorm potential last couple years. When an area was highlighted in red on that model most times that area had a tornado warning or tornado that did happen.

  21. According to the Feds the number of hurricanes will be near normal but more active compared to the last 3 years, whatever that means. I guess we will know soon enough when tropical moisture from Bonnie arrives here on Monday?

    I don’t understand how a near normal season can produce an “active” season at the same time.

  22. The only thing that comes to mind with that is they expect more land falling tropical systems in the U.S. this year. Hard to believe but the last major hurricane to hit the U.S. was Wilma in 2005.

    1. It is now orange, soon to be yellow, green and poof as it hits the sea breeze.

      Front has moved SoutWestward. At 1PM it was 86 at norwood with South
      Wind. At 3PM 75 at Norwood with NE wind!_()@&#$*(&!@*#^&*!^@#&*%^!&*@#^&*!^@#&*^!&*@#^&!^@

      69 at my house in JP and 62, did you get that, freakin 62 at the PIT.

        1. They don’t have much of a future. They were born where the support was barely enough, and are moving into a region without any support.

            1. First one now dying East of the 495 belt.
              The other has drifted over the Wachusett
              Reservoir. 😀

  25. Some stuff firing way west of me in the Hudson River Valley of NY. Nothing severe or particularly strong.

  26. Ok added discussion. Nothing new or exciting there. And I think the media is overplaying and will continue to overplay the tropical potential. My goodness, just because something gets a name does not automatically make it more threatening.

    Right now, I struggle to find anything there that looks impressive. It’s worth watching still, but we’ll see what comes of it.

  27. New convection just popped West of Worcester.
    Old convection is dying, but still there.

  28. Old convection East of Worcester appears to be re-firing as it approaches
    the 495 belt.

  30. The NWS at Taunton as of their 3:33 PM discussion STILL talking about Heavy Rain
    for Memorial Day.

    Area Forecast Discussion
    National Weather Service Taunton MA
    333 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

    The potential exists for a period of heavy rain very late Sunday night
    into Memorial Day.

    Have they started smoking the wacky Tobacky again??????

    1. Yea, I saw that too. I think ‘BZ may be biting on it, but I haven’t seen a forecast from them since early this morning.
      84/64 here.

      1. This was from Noon Time from channel 4.

        The Monday moisture will be produced by the delivery of a moist conduit connected with the tropical disturbance currently east of the Bahamas. This system has the potential to evolve into the second tropical cyclone of 2016. It will be named Bonnie. Alex already occurred as the first hurricane to form in the month of January since 1938. Alex was way out near the Azores. Bonnie is beamed toward the South Carolina coast as a tropical storm with winds perhaps up to 50 or so mph. The National Hurricane Center will issue statements on the progress of potential Bonnie as the weekend progresses. We could experience some tropical downpours on Monday.

        1. People will see this and suddenly jump to the conclusion that Monday is a wash-out. What’s more likely to happen is scattered activity and a large portion of the day being rain-free for any given area. The actual energy may stay over the southeast while some of the moisture travels up this way via the jet stream and south to southwest air flow at the surface.

          1. Trend is your friend? Correct?

            If we are in a dry pattern, we’re in a dry pattern, which would make it more likely it won’t do much, IF anything at all.

            Should be interesting to see how it plays out.

            1. “All systems fail in a drought.”

              Of course that won’t work 100% of the time, but it’s pretty solid.

  31. Tropical Depression 2 has formed. Forecast to strengthen into “Bonnie”, but only likely to be a minimal tropical storm.

  32. I have not looked at the official forecast yet, but if they are smart they will mill the low around down there somewhere and not make it too significant. That low itself will probably never get up here. It’s only some of the moisture associated with the entire area that may be an ingredient in a few showers and t-storms of the scattered variety rather than the widespread variety on Monday.

    2. They are mesmerizing. But can you imagine seeing one of those headed for you. I don’t know how people live in these areas. Very brave

  34. According to Eric some areas could see 1″+ rains on Monday. The TV mets are pretty much implying at a washout but not technically calling it one specifically.

    Should outdoor plans for Monday be changed TK?

    1. I need to scroll down more slowly and actually read your previous posts. 😉

      You already answered my question TK. 😉

  35. I got home at 5:30 and it was 71 here. Now 72.7. I’m guessing the front is in the area, but not fully through yet.

    1. 7 PM 61 at the airport!*(&*@&!*(@&*(#!@*(#&*!@^#^!@(*&*&*#&

      That is simply LUDICROUS!!!!

      1. At Blue Hill wind South at 16 gustng to 23!!

        Jumped here to 73.2, Coming on through I guess. 😀 😀

  36. Yo BRG! Our forecasts for tomorrow/Sunday are similar, but I’m not that optimistic about Monday. We’ll see what happens.

    1. SAK? Not sure I have seen this before. Is this TK’s Storm Chasing friend by any chance?

      Welcome and please don’t be a stranger. 😀

      re: Monday
      I’d go with Tk’s forecast over anyone else. We shall see.
      Also, to me, I got the distinct sense that Eric Fisher was backing off a bit. I could be wrong and just looking for something, but that is what I though I saw/heard.

      1. SAK and I go way back to the late 80s. He’s one of the best forecasters out there!

        1. And you 2 disagree on Monday? 😀
          I think TK will Win this one. Did you see Eric?
          I really think he was backing off.

          1. Well SAK and I don’t always agree on the forecast but often we do, way more often than not, and we have never really made it a competition either. Just make the call, and see what happens. 🙂

  37. I usually just read his posts on Facebook when we’re not chatting. We worked together for a long time, and have known each other for 25 years now. We did go storm chasing together around here once, and missed the Brockton microburst (1996) by mere minutes.

    Brian and I usually agree for the most part on forecasts, and TBH, I don’t look at too many other forecasts – rarely the TV guys, only a few people that I know and trust (The Mayor of Woods Hill being one of them).

    The new NAM has a good slug of rain across eastern Mass now while the GFS splits it with one batch going across western MA and Northern New England, while the second batch just misses the Cape. FWIW, the GEM also has a good slug of rain across most of Southern New England. The models will keep flip-flopping right up until Monday, but they all have some rain in here, in some cases, a lot of rain. For the forecasts I’m writing tonight, I’m going on the pessimistic side for Monday.

    1. You may be correct, but TK has an uncanny knack for nailing these situations.
      It shall be interesting, one way or the other.

      And thank you for sharing that. Much appreciated. You should stop by more often. We love it.

      1. SAK has his own ability to get these right. 🙂
        It is a rare occasion when we don’t see something similarly.

    2. Welcome SAK. Great to see you here. Friends of TKs are special indeed. And now it will be fun to see how Monday turns out.

      If we get that rain, do you think you could toss a thunderstorm or two in please….especially south central MA 🙂

  41. I sincerely hope you’re wrong TK about Monday. As much as I’d hate to see the last day of the long weekend rain filled, my lawn is already struggling and it’s not even June. We need the rainfall badly.

    1. We may end up with the best of both worlds… I’ll explain more on the comments of the next entry… which is now posted!

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