Saturday Forecast

85 Comments

8:59AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 28-JUNE 1)…
No big changes here other than trying to fine-tune this Memorial Day Weekend forecast. First we have the hot day today with a nice early blast of heat – perhaps a preview of many days to come this summer. A cold front from the northeast (back-door front) cuts this off for most of the region on Sunday before lifting back across the region in the early hours of Monday. Even with the heat, a bit of humidity, and the front around, any shower and thunderstorm activity will be isolated, with a pop-up airmass variety shower or storm possible later today and perhaps a few showers/storms along the front as it comes through, hangs about well southwest of Boston for a while Sunday, then returns at night. The greater chance of shower and thunderstorm activity arrives in the early hours of Monday, a result of moisture associated with a tropical depression that may reach minimal tropical storm strength before reaching the coast of South Carolina this weekend. Though the low center from this will be in that area through the weekend, some of the tropical moisture will ride northward and pass over or close to southern New England. An early call on this is that I think a couple areas of showers and thunderstorms may take place, the first 2 traversing southern New England between the overnight hours of Sunday night / Monday morning and the middle of Monday morning. With a little luck most of this should be ready to exit or already gone by the time many of the Memorial Day festivities take place, though trying to time such activity even 48 hours in advance carries a significant degree of uncertainty. We’ll also be left in a humid air mass during the day and with an additional trough approaching later, we may see another round of scattered showers and storms. So at this point I’m still not looking for a Memorial Day washout. By Tuesday, the final day of May, and Wednesday, the first day of June, expect high pressure to regain control with a return to fair weather.
TODAY: Partly cloudy and hazy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon. More humid. Highs 70s Cape Cod and immediate beaches, 80s to lower 90s elsewhere with warmest likely in the Merrimack Valley and interior southern NH. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers possible. Patchy fog late. Lows in the 60s. Wind light SW becoming variable the NE over southeastern NH and eastern MA late.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible from northwestern RI across interior MA and southwestern NH. Highs 60s shoreline, 70s interior. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Showers and thunderstorms likely between midnight and dawn. Lows in the 60s. Wind light variable.
MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Variably cloudy. Numerous to scattered showers and thunderstorms through mid morning. Risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms mid afternoon to evening. Humid. Highs upper 60s Cape Cod to lower 80s some interior areas. Wind variable mainly SE to SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 2-6)…
Fair weather June 2-3. A series of fronts and disturbances bring some unsettled weather at times June 4-6. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 7-11)…
A continued active period, though not excessively wet, with a few disturbances and episodes of shower activity possible. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

85 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  1. I see this as a valid possibility:
    We get a slug of pretty good showers/storms coming through in the pre-dawn hours of Monday, with a second surge coming across RI and southeastern MA during the morning, then the bulk of the midday and afternoon are rain-free and may even turn mostly sunny, then a few scattered showers/storms visit later in the day. I didn’t detail it that way in the forecast above, but this is my current internal visual of how it may play out, so thought I’d share here. Some beneficial rain, but also long stretches of decent weather for outdoor activity.

  4. Excellent write up. Thank you.

    I am never happy to see anything going into the coast of SC. It seems, however, to not be something that will cause damage. If I recall correctly, charleston is just shy of 20 ft.

        1. It is essentially what Dr. Cohen referred to occurring in June, in modified form. All signs continue to point to a summer of above normal temps overall.

          1. Near to below normal temps as in low to mid 70s. I call that perfect :D. There will be sun, some clouds, and scattered showers/storms from occasional fronts that pass through the area beginning late next week as the ridge breaks down. It appears however the warm returns approximately 7 days later. Do you agree TK?

            1. Basically, yes. It might take a little bit to really get something established because it may be a battle of ridges. I think the winner will be one that gets set up in the north central US but sends plenty of warm to hot air over the top.

              1. And when do you feel that becomes established? Hopefully not July 4th like JP stated 😀

                1. The up/down pattern going through much of June is actually quite normal. We don’t tend to build larger scale ridges and push the jet stream way into Canada until we get toward July. It’s hard to get anything “established” unless you have a very stable pattern (that is, not much change for long periods) like February 2015 (large scale trough, record cold and snow), or July and the first half of August 1988 (persistent heat).

  7. 10:50 AM water temperatures:

    Boston Buoy: Water Temperature (WTMP): 58.1 °F
    Stellwagen: Water Temperature (WTMP): 55.8 °F
    Jeffrey’s Ledge: Water Temperature (WTMP): 55.0 °F
    Guld of Maine: Water Temperature (WTMP): 53.1 °F
    Cape Cod: Water Temperature (WTMP): 54.1 °F
    Natucket: Water Temperature (WTMP): 50.9 °F

  8. The second half of summer late July onward will be hot, first half will be on and off. with the warmth and cool with times of rain but still below normal……

    do you agree TK

    1. For the most part, except I believe the heat will be here sooner than late July on a fairly frequent but not completely consistent basis. This will take place while the mean ridge is center in the Midwest. The middle to end of summer will feature the ridge centered more along or just off the US East Coast.

  9. 90 degrees with a dew point of 65. Perfect!!!
    If we could get this everyday until Columus day, I’d be really happy. Not realistic at out lattitude and longitude, but I love this weather. Feels like Wilmington, NC where my dad lives.

  10. Boston hit 92 then dropped back to the lower 80s with a sea breeze. Pretty much what was expected.

  12. Just came back from the Bourne National Cemetery where it was a beautiful 72 degrees with a nice breeze. It’s 93 here in now in Hingham without much of breeze.

  14. Dropped all the way back to 89.2 here. Brrr…. 😀 😀 😀

    No sea breeze here that I can detect.

    Limited convection out there. I see a cell in Maine, one in Ct and one between Springfield and Worcester somewhere.

    Not very promising so far.

    1. Pretty much as expected. Today was lacking triggers. It took orographic lift and temps of 92-94 in the CT Valley area to trigger a couple isolated storms.

  18. Did a quick errand. Apparently, Pandora is feeling summer

    First song up was

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IOV96BCAvZc

    Followed by a string of beach boys…….and nothing says summer (even in spring) like the beach boys……Surfer Moon, South Bay Surfer, That Little Car of Mine and the quintessential summer song, Surfer Girl.

      1. Saw the Beach Boys at the Old Boston Garden in 1965. Had seats in the 7th row up front center. Awesome show.

        My fav tunes:

        “Fun, Fun, Fun”,”Little Deuce Coupe”,”I Get Around”, “409”, “Help Me, Rhonda”

        1. I sadly didn’t see them. So exciting you did. I drove my dads tbirds so guess which was my favorite. Along with In My Room and surfer girl but really loved all

  20. Boston buoy 3:50 PM

    Water Temperature (WTMP): 60.4 °F

    We cracked 60, I believe for the 1st time this year, although I am not certain of that.

      1. no I believe him as my thermometer is about 94 and he usually is about 5 degrees warmer than I am in the summer.

      2. Well Fitchburg made it to 95, so 98 may be a bit high but it’s “in the ballpark”. That was expected to be the hottest area and it’s also the area that popped more showers than any other. Makes sense. 🙂

  23. I got a hearty chuckle when I turned on the TV and saw a nws forecast for boston calling for scattered thunderstorms. Really who the bleep are they kidding. Isolated, maybe. Scattered no freaking way. What a joke.

    1. They did have the chance at 10 or 20% for most of the area, and given it is a holiday weekend, it was the right forecast IMO.

      1. Well that’s you opinion and that’s fine. I did not see scattered thunderstorms. I did see isolated storms. Sometimes I’d swear you have a buddy working at the Taunton NWS office. 😀

  24. Nothin here…zilch….nada….

    Hmmmm I had a thought, does complaining about not having storms…thunder or snow, etc…equate to complaining about weather.

    If so I’ll have to hang my head in shame.

      1. I know. I am definitely not Saying any forecast was wrong b/c not over me. But hard to enjoy when they are not. I do think I am more upset by missing a Tstorm than snow

  26. So far after reviewing guidance through 18z today I’m going to stick with the same ideas through Monday.

    Not a washout, but not dry. Timing the shower areas is key. Still early but feeling is slug #1 comes through pre-dawn, slug #2 comes through mid to late morning and is focused on areas south of Boston, and #3 is whatever is leftover of a t-storm line or broken line that ignites in NY and western New England in the afternoon then marches eastward later but probably dies out before it gets to the coast.

  27. 6PM, 78 at Logan.

    87 here now and it was above 88 at 6PM.

    East winds all along the coast, but I can’t tell if that is just a sea breeze due to gradient
    OR the actual BD front has slipped down the coast.

    East winds at Portland me, Portsmouth NH, Beverly and Logan.

    Here is the latest Surface, but that doesn’t mean the front hasn’t slipped down.

    http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif

  30. The one out by rt. is a right turner. Not that it is severe, but it did take a right turn.

    2. What makes that 384-hour GFS even funnier is that it’s the outlier from the Ensemble. The Ensemble Mean for is heat then, with temperatures well into the 80s, maybe even some 90s.

      Any thoughts about “Bonnie”? I posted a new blog about it tonight. I’m sure you can guess my thoughts based on the quotes around the name.

      1. I cannot guess. Sorry. I’m hoping you’ll be here long enough to know Vicki typically needs some ‘splainin’, Lucy.

  35. I just visually witness the back door cold front arrive in Biddeford Maine. It was amazing! We were looking out over the ocean and noticed a darker strip of water on the horizon. It kept on getting closer and closer and I thought to myself that’s the cold front. Once it reached us the wind whipped and the temps drop. What an incredible thing to witness. Amazing.

    1. I mentioned that the other day on here. It is beyond amazing, isn’t it. I’ll be up to visit tomorrow……..no directions needed. When you hear a woman yelling COASTAL perhaps you could be kind enough to respond 🙂

  37. Still 82.4 here. All windows open. Waiting for the front.
    And No, we didn’t install the ACs for one stinken day. 😀

    1. Just as well given your wife has the flu. As hot as it is you don’t want her getting a chill. Natural fresh air is better. How is she doing? Getting better I hope. 🙂

  38. At 8PM down to 70 at Portsmouth, NH. Front getting closer.
    75 at Beverly
    84 at the airport. Knock, knock, knocking on the door.

  39. after this stressful semester, its great to finally see my grandparents again, can’t wait for tomorrow.

  40. oh also, I worked all day in the ER, today when I got home realized that my AC isn’t working, though my pool is out there 😉

  41. Ummm,

    Just looked at the HRRR. Up through 9 or 10 tomorrow AM, it does NOT
    show the BD coming through here yet. 0Z NAM most certainly does.

    Is this thing stalling?

    1. HRRR is a piece of crap.
      Back door at no trouble getting through here and crossed the entire city of Woburn in a matter of minutes. I was a firsthand witness and literally chased it across the city from NE to SW. Awesome. 🙂

  42. GFS/NAM/WRF all looking pretty pessimistic for Monday now. The GEM keeps the heavier rain outside of 495, but it still has rain in here Monday afternoon too. Of course, it’s also the GEM, so take it for what it’s worth.

    As for the backdoor front – looks like it might have trouble getting past a MHT-BED-GHG line, if it even gets that far, much to my dismay.

    1. Back door went thru Woburn at 2AM. We went from calm to NE 10-15 MPH with an immediate temp drop of about 10 degrees.

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