Tuesday Forecast

125 Comments

7:12AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 31-JUNE 4)…
This last day of May 2016 will start out with a contrast across the region from clear conditions northwest of Boston to lingering rain/fog over the outer part of Cape Cod and Nantucket as a frontal boundary departs the area, but high pressure will overtake the entire region and by the time May makes its final bow, we’ll have enjoyed a very warm and dry day across most of the region. After this, the first few days of June will end up somewhat cooler, with fair weather on Wednesday as high pressure builds north of the region and starts to turn the wind north to northeast. By Thursday, look for some cloudiness due to an ocean wind. A cold front approaching from the west may being some showers by Friday, but should move through and allow a bubble of high pressure to bring fair weather to start the weekend while low pressure that was once Tropical Storm Bonnie passes well south of New England.
TODAY: Cloudiness to start the day RI and southeastern MA including some rain outer Cape Cod and Nantucket, but rain ends in these areas with a clearing trend by midday and afternoon. Elsewhere, sunshine dominates. Highs in the 70s South Coast including Cape Cod, 80s elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the middle 50s to lower 60s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs upper 60s eastern shores and Cape Cod, 70s elsewhere. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s to lower 70s.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s to lower 70s.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 5-9)…
At least 2 systems will bring variable temperatures and a risk of episodes of showers and possible thunderstorms during this period. One system should be around later on June 5 into June 6, with a follow up unsettled period later June 7 into June 8. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 10-14)…
A similar pattern continues with passing systems and variable temperatures, but it still does not look excessively wet or cool either.

125 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  4. Good morning and thank you TK for the Tuesday morning update.

    A beauty of a day so far today and rather warm starting out.

    I hear on the radio a chance of a shower this PM. I did not see it in your forecast.
    Is this the NWS playing tricks again? Or a rogue forecaster? OR is there the slightest
    chance with the heating of the day a shower could pop? tx.

    Ocean temperatures starting the day:

    Boston Buoy: Water Temperature (WTMP): 57.4 °F
    Stellwagen: Water Temperature (WTMP): 55.6 °F
    Cape Cod: Water Temperature (WTMP): 55.2 °F
    Gulf of Maine: Water Temperature (WTMP): 50.5 °F

  6. I am not saying that the Euro is Gospel, but it is showing high temperatures in
    the 60s from tomorrow through June 9th. That is totally unacceptable!!

  7. Im not likeing it either. The first half of June looks pathetic. I don’t remember the last June that was decent. I still don’t see this “hot” summer people are touting. Im also well aware summer doesn’t start for 3 weeks, but at 384 hours at to mid june, im just not seeing it. GFS shows some hotter weather at the end of the run, but ill believe it when I see it.

      1. Warm season is going to stink just like winter did for you guys.
        I’m just having a melt down over this. I’ll come around. The plus is I’m outa here the last week of June until July 4th to Texas, so I know I’ll get my heat there. Maybe when I get back on July 2, it’ll be warmer here.

      1. True. There are weddings, birthdays and of course, graduations.

        But the weather pays no attention to those events. 😀

  8. I think consistent New England summer weather is about June 25th through August 5th, nearly matching the dog days (July 3rd thru August 11th).

    Additionally, the rest of August and early September are still usually warmer than the first half of June.

    I personally wouldn’t write off what the heart of summer will bring, even if we cool off the next 10 to 14 days.

    1. Not to be a contrarian, but what signs would they be at this point?
      And I did say above I realize its not summer until June 21.

      1. I thought he was in the Charlie Hole vortex.

        I didn’t see where he got tossed. Was it posted he was?

        2. He got put in moderation I think, but I didn’t see where he was outright tossed.

          1. Here it is.

            Woods Hill Weather says:
            May 16, 2016 at 1:45 AM
            Ok, it’s one thing to reply “I love Logan” even though you’ve trashed it a million times, and when your only real reason for saying it is because you know that your comments tend to ruffle feathers. But what does that have to do with the weather? It’s one thing to repeat the same comments over and over…for years. It’s one thing to pretty much constantly go off topic of the blog and make the only related comments at the very least a quiet jab at someone’s opinion for something you don’t agree with. Etc. Etc. Etc.
            Etc.
            Etc.
            Etc.
            If you want a full reminder of the type of user you’ve been, then go back and read that monumental list that I spent 4 hours preparing and posted for all to see, and hopefully for you to learn from. If you ever did learn anything from it, it didn’t stick. Just in the last couple weeks, you had to make it a point to say you were not trying to offend or be rude so many times. You are the ONLY person that feels the need to do this on a routine basis, and there’s a reason for it, and you know the reason.

            It’s entirely another thing to insult someone the way you did. It’s time to go, Charlie. You crossed the line and went way too far onto the other side this time. The decision is made, and I want everyone to know it, which is why I made this post. But I’ve had enough. I don’t want to have to deal with you anymore.

            I did not make this blog so you could insult people and I did not make this blog so I had to constantly monitor everything you say. I’ve been too forgiving. But it’s done.

            Moving on…

  11. TK, what do you see on the GFS runs that say we need to toss? I don’t disagree since I don’t know what to look for that says its crap. I’m trying to learn what to look for.

  12. Compared to the first few days of June 2015 this June is going to seem warm.
    Hard to believe tomorrow is the 5 year anniversary of the Springfield tornado. That tornado was on the ground for about 39 miles. First time in my life I could remember seeing a tornado hear in New England on live television.

    1. That sure was an incredible day. Here in northeastern MA, the lightning coming from the west was almost constant, lighting the sky up in shades of purple, orange, white… I’ve never seen anything like it before. It was exciting keeping one eye on teh radar and one eye out the window. I don’t wish destruction or harm on anyone, but that was one very exciting, fascinating storm! A few years later, I went out to Springfield and saw the remains of the destruction – very strange to see the swaths of trees cleared by that tornado. I can’t believe it’s been 5 years!

      1. For sure. My daughter lives in Hopkinton and the headline feed at the bottom of her TV screen indicated tornado warning take shelter immediately. She called me from the cellar. I told her
        it was still way to the West of there but was still rotating. She was scared out of her mind.

        My Father was living with my Sister at the time in Uxbridge and I had to call out there to make sure they had some place to go
        just in case.

        Fortunately the thing dissipated shortly after Monson.

        Speaking of Monson, that tornado completely destroyed the home of my Son-In-Law’s cousin in Monson.

        It was a terrible storm to say the least. The scars showed on
        satellite photos years after the event.

        1. OS My son in law in Uxbridge wanted to try and drive away from the tornado. I remember asking on here and you advised not to which I had also thought but wanted to make sure. They spent the evening in their basement with pillows.

          The last watch was west of Framingham which made me really nervous because it was dark. I was not the least bit fond of trying to strain to see what was happening in the dark.

          1. I was never really concerned here in the city, but I was getting concerned for my Father, Daughter and Sister living way to the west and potentially
            in harms way.

            Pretty scary day around here.

            It must have been like the 1953 Worcester tornado, except we were WAY more informed than the poor folks back then. They had basically nothing. That one dissipated in Fayville (Western part of Framingham, almost in Southboro)

            Map: https://www.google.com/maps/vt/data=RfCSdfNZ0LFPrHSm0ublXdzhdrDFhtmHhN1u-gM,c8TNN3mha3iWhGd8AfiYvvLaH7pz6R0dT02quFOkLDh8_OQWlAAxobiv0q7gqogCwu53bmXQWGVt8WTJHPvYwBC8vpNFedWyR6uZbmSloWur

            1. My mom talked about the 1953 tornado a lot and I always had the impression there was no warning. But then for the hurricane in the early 1950s when we were stuck at Humarock there was no warning of that either. Amazing how different things are now.

    2. I second Flowergirl, who by the way I love seeing adding to posts here. It was exciting and terrifying all at once. I also saw the path in Sturbridge a couple of years ago. I have goosebumps just thinking about it now.

      1. Indeed. We were all over that one, fully expecting “something”
        to happen sometime during that day.

        I don’t wish harm on anyone, but I have to say that was one of the most exciting days ever on this blog. The only thing close was perhaps one of the blizzards 2 Winters ago, especially the one
        with the Thunder snow and the Jim Cantore antics.

      2. Thank you, Vicki 🙂 I used to participate more, but now my job allows me to “play” a little more than when I was working in IT. WHW is always an open tab on work and home PC’s 😀 I really should get a weather station so I can give more accurate reports than the Weatherbug station at the middle school down the street.

  13. Boston Buoy water temperature.

    Water Temperature (WTMP): 60.4 °F

    Frankly, I am surprised with that stiff Westerly wind. I would have thought that
    it would cause upwelling. Excellent!

  15. Even though that tornado never affected me it will be a day here weather wise I will never forget. I put that up with other big weather day’s in my life here in New England including July 10, 1989 April Fools Storm Blizzard of 2013 to name a couple. Tornado watch was issued just before 1pm that Wednesday and watching those storms come out of the Berkshire’s and seeing that well defined hook echo on radar as the storm came through Springfield.

    1. I spent a lot of time on the phone with my wife, Daughter and Sister on that one.
      Once the main storm dissipated in Monson (well the storm didn’t go poof, but it did stop rotating), I felt pretty confident that would be it. None-the-less, we had to be vigilant just in case.

  16. Earlier that day we had a warm front that came through produced showers and thunderstorms. The clearing happened with full sunshine. The atmosphere was quite unstable to say the least that day. CAPE values were close to 4,000 where the tornado went through Lift Index values -8 to -10 and helicity values in the 150-300 range. Those are values above what we normally have when we get severe weather here. Everything unfortunately came together that day.

  17. I can’t believe that was 5 years ago …..

    Quite a dewpoint front in SE New England. Low to mid 60 dewpoints from Marshfield southward, upper 40s to low 50s to the northwest.

    1. I noticed that earlier. At least there is no action with the “dry line” like
      in the plains states. 😀 😀 😀

  18. We all knew it was a bad ski season, but I must say some of the numbers in this article blew me away.

    http://www.boston.com/sports/sports-news/2016/05/31/breaking-new-englands-nightmare-ski-season

    The first half of June is almost always a wild card in SNE. JP Dave’s reminders on a daily basis of the ocean water temperature (which may go back into the 50s the coming week) tells us a lot of what we need to know about our weather. If we get prolonged stretches of easterly wind and seabreezes the coast will have a hard time heating up, except on a day like today or last Saturday. We need to get a consistent SW flow for heat. A Bermuda High would help, too as that steers in the southwesterly. While I’m sure we’ll have our fair share of heat this summer, I’m skeptical about a hot summer in general.

    1. Very sad. Stunning article. The one that completely blew me away
      was Killington. It average 250 inches per year and last Winter had 81 inches,
      1/2 of the previous record low. Amazing!

    2. PS, I hope the ocean temperature posts are not annoying. I find them
      to be extremely interesting and was hoping others would as well.
      If anyone finds them to be annoying I would be happy to stop posting them, no
      hard feelings.

    3. I have said repeatedly that the area has had too many miserable winters. The year before was very bad also….not as bad as last year but bad nonetheless. It is important to remember that not all business is generated by downhill skiing (although to snobby me that was always the only kind) 🙂

      There was no snow on the ground for cross country or snowmobiling, etc. for years also.

  19. the 12Z Euro looks a little better in the short run, however it still looks BRUTAL
    for 6/7, 6/8 and 6/9. And I mean BRUTAL as in temperatures in the low 60s.
    Please say it ain’t so.

    1. Both GFS and Euro are pointing to a cooler stretch. However, it could be worse. Last year on June 1st and 2nd the temps in Boston stayed in the upper 40s. I believe we set records both days. Also, we’ve all experienced June days in the 50s, especially the first half of the month. While unusual, they do happen, particularly to us coastal dwellers.

      1. Oh to be sure. I remember planing our daughter’s wedding in 1997. I specifically remember my wife and I visiting the wedding venue (Marriott Long Wharf) right on the water front. It was in the mid 50s in the middle of the afternoon and cloudy of course. Brrrrr

  20. JP Dave, your posts are NEVER annoying. I hope that what I said above didn’t lead you to believe that I didn’t want to see the ocean temperature reports. On the contrary, your reports help clarify our day-to-day weather.

    1. Joshua, I was hoping that was the case. I posted my response just on the chance anyone found them to be annoying. It would the last thing I would ever want to do. The way I am wired, I have a tendency to overdo things and I can get carried away.

      I am pleased that you feel that way. 😀

      Btw, have you looked at the Euro?

      It seems to verify you thoughts from above.

      1. My kids ask every day what the water temp is. They were wondering if you want to include Scituate (tongue in cheek). If you stop, I am not sure if they can handle it!!

          1. Very cool….but it won’t have the same inflection as your posts. 😉

            You can be certain I will be passing this along to the kids.

            1. PS I make NO claims to its accuracy. I just found it and passed it along. But based on
              the Buoy reports, it at least seems reasonable.

  22. Hi all. Will get caught up soon. I was doing a talk today and now I have to catch up on a few things, and help out with a couple ongoing crises. I’ll be back shortly because I AM talking an iced coffee break in a few minutes. 😛

      1. Taking. It should say taking. Man I hate updating through my phone! I’m a keyboard wizard but a phone screen moron.

        1. My hands and fingers are not particularly large, yet
          I manage to fudge up all the keys on my smart phone.
          I always get the adjacent character, not matter how hard
          I try to adjust. 😀

          Just busting your chops is all. 😀

    2. Well, what kind of talk? As in a speech? A weather presentation?
      Don’t tease us like this.

          1. Nope. The only record of it is in the memorize of those seniors……and it probably won’t be there long. 😉

        2. Do you do weather talks at schools? I love that you do them at assisted living. I find most older individuals are interested in weather and can see them completely enjoying you.

  24. It’s funny. I expected to look at the 12z ECMWF and see something really bad there, based on what I read above, but I’m not finding anything really nasty there, taking into account the inaccuracy of that model’s temperature forecasts. 🙂

    It looks just like I expect the weather to be during that time. If you want summer heat, you may be quite happy that the pattern reverts to cooler for the first couple weeks of June. Wait and watch…

    1. I HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE low 60s in JUNE. CAN’T STAND IT!!!
      So if that’s not bad to you, excellent.

      AND I am sincerely hoping the temperature regime depicted by the Euro
      relaxes a bit as we get closer to the time.

      Low to mid 70s would be acceptable, but NOT low 60s.

      Just my take and I don’t tolerate much. Well actually I do as I must, but
      I’ll complain the whole time.

  25. I saw the talk of the cooler weather coming in for the area, ok not what I want but gives me better biking weather. I like 50s-75 for biking.

    Also the type of set up we have going on for the summer usually leads to second half being warm and most of the fall being dry and warm to at least start the fall season… Everything is greener at this time than it was last year.

  26. See those ocean temperatures that Dave have posted that part of the reason for the cooler air masses as of late when the wind is from the north and east. Expect more of the same in the coming years. Our temperatures here in eastern New England will be effected by the ocean temperatures even more so than they all ready do. U can tell from the maps why the ocean temperatures off our coast are so chilled at the moment look to the north

    1. the “cold wall current” increasing in strength (cold water from greenland)
      while the gulf stream is weakening. All ready happening

      1. I think we are far enough South and West of Greenland, that
        we escape that major cooling for now anyway. This Summer,
        the water temperatures will be just fine, perhaps even somewhat
        above normal. In fact, I think we are at or perhaps even above
        average right now.

        I have not been able to locate a site with correct averages.
        The best I could find were 1/2 month averages. Ie May 1-15 and May 16-31. I don’t like that. I want a site that shows daily
        averages, then I would know. Right now it is a crap shoot to know whether or not a temperature is average, above or below.

        My gut and experience says they are at least average and perhaps a tad above. Hoping TK knows for sure.

        1. Next time. You have an angel on your shoulder. Mac was always interested in how your game went.

  29. I’m in camp JPDave. Low 60’s in June blows chunks. But then again, last year on June 1 it poured rain and the high topped out at a whopping 49. June 2 wasn’t much better.
    I’ll watch and wait like tk says. He’s been pretty spot on since last fall.

  30. They’d be better off right now running a GFS ensemble set and making the mean the “operational run” because the actual operational run is just so bad right now. The inconsistency and other issues .. just out of control.

    One example is: About a week ago I followed the runs valid for the same time and watched the changes in the forecast just for the PNW and southwestern Canada and over the course of a couple days it went from dry with very warm temps to unsettled with rain and mountain snow then back to warm/dry. It now has the snow back at the end of the period again, so here’s another good spot to start following run to run valid the same time and watch the consistency unfold. How can one rationally decide to use this piece of crap as reliable guidance right now?

  31. Thanks, that helps. I need to start watching what it does out west and see how it verifies as system come on shore, how they actually progress compared to modeled outcomes and how consistent it is run to run.

    1. We also have a model predicting temperatures similar to October in the middle of June with a wind that is not directly off the water under an overcast. Something is wrong with that model’s ability to predict surface temperatures.

      1. Ther’s always funky stuff going on over there. I have seen it before where a 6 hour max would say 93 and then the reported high is 94.
        Weird crap.

        1. You get a lot of errors in automated stations. Many of the major ones are corrected. Some are not. This is partly to explain for the massive jump in temps in the 1980s, when following budget cuts there was a huge switch to automated stations over human observations.

    1. I am just about on 146. I know I saw 84 point something and the thermometer has been in line with others in the area. I’m still a bit unsure of the sensor location so would trust yours before mine

      I’ll pass on to TK where I am and see if he will let you know. I’m on FB but not sure you are.

      1. Sorry. 84 pint something or 86 point something. I need to figure how to tell the history on the station

    1. WBZ uses a thermometer on their building on Soldier’s Field Road, which often reads too high on sunny afternoons. It was not in the lower 90s anywhere in this area today.

        1. Those automobile thermometers often pick up radiated heat from pavement, again a sunny day common occurrence.

  36. Vicki, no birdies tonight unfortunately 🙁 I still hit the ball well and took all 9 possible points with a 3 over par 39. Maybe I can get some Mac luck next week 🙂

  37. Boston Buoy starting the day at:

    Water Temperature (WTMP): 58.3 °F

    WE ARE GETTING THERE.

    I could “almost” get in the water at that temperature, although I prefer 65+

    Coldest I have been in (other than falling through ice) was 53 Degrees.

Comments are closed.